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Wednesday 27th of October 2021
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Morning
Africa
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Register and its all Free.
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“Derivatives,” Alvin said. “I don’t speculate about the future, I trade it.” @NewYorker
World Of Finance
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And they were cross‑linked and interwoven and resold in large bundles, “future on future,” Alvin said, handing me a paper towel.
“Forget about the forces of the free market, my friend. Commodity prices no longer refer to any value, past or present—they’re just ghosts from the future.”
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They can never beat you if you buy the dips. @nayibbukele
World Of Finance
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The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance
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"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, "This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon."
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.@alykhansatchu Dec 29 Ali the Navigator Wasini Island Kenya
Africa
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Bond Market Sends a Warning on Growth to Hawkish Central Banks @markets
World Of Finance
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The bond market’s age-old measure of growth is flashing an ominous warning as the world’s central banks move closer to boosting interest rates from near record lows.
Traders are wagering on rate hikes of as much as 161 basis points over the next year in countries including the U.K., New Zealand and South Korea amid soaring costs of living and commodity prices.
Yet a flattening in yield curves -- historically seen as the market’s assessment of economic health -- indicates rising concern that such a rapid withdrawal of support will hurt the nascent recovery.
Such a view is not without its detractors; yield-curve signals have been distorted by more than a decade of central bank bond-buying.
But with these gauges aligning with other growth indicators and talk of stagflation gripping Wall Street, investors are pondering whether such a rapid pace of tightening -- if delivered -- could prove a costly mistake.
“The downside surprise to growth is probably going to outlive the upside in inflation,” said Ebrahim Rahbari, global head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Citigroup Inc.
“We might well run into a situation where central banks will turn hawkish for a little while only to have to ease maybe in a year or so again.”
Weakening Currencies
This concern is particularly acute in the U.K. Traders are pricing in more than 100 basis points of Bank of England tightening by the end of 2022 -- the most aggressive cycle this century.
That’s even as the nation grapples with the dour economic after-effects of Brexit, and a resurgence of Covid-19 cases heading into winter.
Growth concerns have taken a toll on the pound, which fell to its lowest this year at the end of September.
While it has since recovered, traders are struggling to figure out what rate hikes would mean for growth -- and the sterling.
Higher rates have also failed to boost the South Korean won, among Asia’s worst performers over the past six months.
And it’s a similar story for the New Zealand dollar, which fell after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates last month; while it’s since regained some ground, forecasts for the kiwi have steadily fallen as markets price the central bank’s path to neutral.
“Most other developed market central banks have not begun the process of normalizing -- let alone pricing in a projected cash rate path to neutral,” said Prashant Newnaha, a strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.
“With the prospect that other central banks play catch-up in hiking rates, upside for the New Zealand dollar should be capped.”
This trend is also present in emerging markets, where currencies have sunk to the weakest level since March 2020 relative to average local-bond yields.
That suggests investors are discounting the appeal of rising interest rates, fretting instead over the toxic combination of slower global growth and faster inflation.
Emerging-Market Currencies Hurt by Growth Woes After Rate Hikes
Still, the world is not exactly on the brink of a new recession. The OECD’s leading indicators point to moderating growth in the U.S., euro zone and U.K., dragged down in part by “the persistent rise in consumer prices in recent months, driven by surging energy prices,” according to an Oct. 12 release.
And the reliability of yield curves as an economic health indicator has been called into question amid hefty central bank bond-buying programs and the pandemic’s mega-spending programs, which have upended conventional models.
“I would be cautious in over-interpreting what the curves are trying to tell us because there are so many things going on,” UBS Group AG chief economist Arend Kapteyn said.
But the question of whether economies are strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs has markets transfixed nonetheless.
Feeding into that is the debate about whether price pressures are indeed transitory, or whether inflation will head back below central-bank targets if energy costs ease and supply chain issues fade.
Such a reversal could prompt an early end to rate hiking just as easily as a hit to growth.
“I’m having the impression that the central banks are getting ahead of themselves,” said Kei Yamazaki, a senior fund manager at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.
“The market is sending signals that rate hikes are still too early.”
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The Bullwhip Effect after the great lockdown is often confused with a new and stronger growth trend. @dlacalle_IA
World Of Finance
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09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ
World Of Finance
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Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.
The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ
Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner.
The @federalreserve is arriving at the Wizard of Oz moment
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Eventually, it is revealed that Oz is actually none of these things, but rather an ordinary conman from Omaha, Nebraska, who has been using elaborate magic tricks and props to make himself seem “great and powerful”.
World Of Finance
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TUDOR JONES: "I'm just worried about the future of this country. .. the most inappropriate monetary policy that I've seen .. [pauses].. maybe in my lifetime." @CNBC @SquawkCNBC @ptj_official
World Of Finance
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[REGIME CHANGE] There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official
World Of Finance
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There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.
There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.
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"The stock market is on a combination of fiscal monetary pulse that we've never seen before in history," Tudor Investment Corporation Founder and CIO @PTJ_Official @YahooFinance
World Of Finance
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"The market is like a large movie theater but with a small door." Dynamic Hedging, 1996 @nntaleb
World Of Finance
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[My central Thesis remains that] The real black swan will be a deflationary shock. @DarkPoolTrade
World Of Finance
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But this will only happen at the denouement
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Black swan, golden sunrise @Astrid_Tontson
World Of Finance
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For the denouement to happen we need to return to March 2020
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The global markets story in 1 chart & 2 words. March 2020: DEFLATION!!! October 2021: INFLATION!!! @DavidInglesTV
World Of Finance
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Mirrors on the ceiling, The Pink champagne on ice
World Of Finance
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'Interest rate rise unlikely before hyperinflationary economic collapse.' @topimp21
World Of Finance
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Mount Kilimanjaro @Mgmambo
Africa
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― Hemingway Ernest, The Snows of Kilimanjaro and Other Stories
Africa
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“Kilimanjaro is a snow-covered mountain 19,710 feet high, and is said to be the highest mountain in Africa. Its western summit is called the Masai 'Ngaje Ngai', the House of God. Close to the western summit there is a dried and frozen carcas of a leopard. No one has explained what the leopard was seeking at that altitude.”
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A Leopard in a Tree Samburu
Africa
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"If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change." - Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa , The Leopard
Africa
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Looking across at Mawenzi from the upper slopes at sunrise @jasonrawles
Africa
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''You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.” ― V.S. Naipaul
Africa
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“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise — dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was always there.You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River
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V S Naipaul "In our blood and bone and brain we carry the memories of thousands of beings."
Misc.
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Sunrise at the Himalayas (Annapurna) mountain range seen from the World Peace Pagoda, Pokhara, Nepal. @Sebastian023456
Misc.
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Good morning world from Shree Antu, Ilam By @boyeager97 @BucketlistNepal
Asia
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First sunrise after 40 days of polar night in Murmansk, northern Russia. Can confirm people are losing it on the snowy dance floor @theo_merz
Misc.
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I just love this - Would love to be there on that day one day
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The Pandemic Is a Portal
Misc.
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She told him she dreamed about escaping. That was all she dreamed about. Paris, Texas (1984) dir. Wim Wenders @doctorow
Misc.
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A decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
Misc.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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In an era when old age and hereditary privilege are largely out of vogue, Queen Elizabeth is still held in lofty regard, as her consistently high popularity ratings testify. @nytopinion
Law & Politics
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Conclusions
With Good reason
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APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (@AP) _ #Iran state television says gas stations across the Islamic Republic targeted in cyberattack that's stopped fueling @jongambrellAP
Law & Politics
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“The edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over,” Hunter S Thompson.
Law & Politics
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Two Words From Taiwan’s Leader Threaten to Upend U.S.-China Ties @bpolitics
Law & Politics
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Saying that China and Taiwan are “not subordinate” to each other might seem obvious, since they’ve been locked in an unresolved civil war for decades.
But Taiwan’s use of those words earlier this month continues to reverberate, risking a fresh rupture in U.S.-China ties.
President Tsai Ing-wen said the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China, as Taiwan and the mainland are officially called, are “not subordinate to each other” in a televised speech marking the island’s National Day on Oct. 10.
Tsai’s camp argues she was reiterating the status quo, reflecting the fact that the Communist Party has never ruled Taipei.
To Beijing, however, that phrasing came close to reviving an idea that fueled tensions between China and the U.S. two decades ago.
A spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing accused Tsai of “peddling the two-state theory,” a reference to former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s policy that Taiwan and China should have state-to-state relations -- something state media called “a daydream.”
The episode illustrates the fragile truce across the Taiwan Strait, as China ramps up a military and diplomatic pressure campaign and President Joe Biden affirms the U.S. commitment to defend the democratically ruled island from attack.
Although Tsai hails from a party founded on the promise of formal independence, she has largely steered clear of defining Taiwan’s status in a way that could push President Xi Jinping toward military action.
Deng Yuwen, a former editor at the party-run journal Study Times, argued in a commentary last week that Xi had been unusually quiet in not challenging Tsai’s perceived revival of the two-state theory.
While Deng speculated that Xi’s diplomats were likely pushing the U.S. to take a side, he said the Chinese president could face internal pressure if he was publicly seen as ignoring the issue.
During the decades that Taipei was ruled by the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, it shared agreement with Beijing on one key point: that both sides were part of “China.”
But after Taiwan transitioned from martial law under the KMT to democracy in the 1980s and 1990s, leaders like Lee -- Taiwan’s first elected president -- began to break from the “one China” framework.
In 1999, Lee proposed that the two sides had a “special state-to-state relationship.”
That same year, Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party, which was then in the opposition, made a subtle tweak to its long-held goal for independence.
The party resolved that Taiwan was already a sovereign nation: it was “not a part of the People’s Republic of China” and the one-China principle idea was “fundamentally inappropriate for Taiwan.”
Tsai explained the idea in an interview with the BBC after winning her second four-year term in 2020.
“The idea is that we don’t have a need to declare ourselves an independent state,” she said, because “we are an independent country already.”
Taiwan’s decision not to force the issue has allowed the U.S., Japan and others to maintain “strategic ambiguity,” keeping the island -- and its key industries such as chipmaking -- out of Communist Party control.
Although the U.S. recognized the People’s Republic as the “sole legal government of China” more than four decades ago, it never clarified its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty or whether it would use force to defend Taiwan.
“Tsai’s careful rhetoric sidesteps questions of sovereignty or a ‘two-state theory’ by focusing on the tangible and the undeniable, which is neither the ROC or PRC are subordinate to each other,” said Vincent Chao, former political director at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., Taiwan’s de facto embassy.
“The main point is that both sides should at least acknowledge each other’s existence as a step towards finding a way to get along.”
But as Taiwan has gained global recognition for its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Tsai positions her island as a test of democracy’s strength in the face of authoritarianism, Washington has faced increased pressure to commit.
Biden said Friday the U.S. would defend the island from a Chinese attack -- although the White House quickly said he wasn’t announcing a change in policy.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin urged the U.S. to “speak prudently” and stick to the “one-China” agreement, at a regular news briefing Friday in Beijing, reiterating that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.”
Deng, the former Study Times editor, pointed out in his commentary that Xi’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin, successfully pushed back on Lee’s theory in 1999, including by persuading then-U.S. President Bill Clinton to voice opposition.
He said that Chinese diplomats were now likely back-channeling Washington to similarly condemn Tsai’s Oct. 10 speech.
If China and the U.S. can’t reach a consensus, Deng wrote, that “would mean the Biden administration had acquiesced the two-state theory.
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President Joe Biden says the U.S. has a commitment to protect Taiwan and would come to its defense if attacked by China @business.
Law & Politics
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That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world @bopinion @nfergus
Law & Politics
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He has brought Hong Kong to heel, he is prowling around Taiwan like a Lion prowled around our Tent one night in the Tsavo
Law & Politics
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“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!”
Law & Politics
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“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,”
Law & Politics
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23-AUG-2021 :: Xi Jinping is on a winning streak ever since he started salami slicing his then adversary President Obama.
Law & Politics
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It is inevitable he will roll the dice on Taiwan and imminently.
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23-AUG-2021 :: There is a fluidity at the Apex of World Power and this brings friction, increases risk and creates ‘’Geopolitical’’ Tail Risks across the spectrum.
Law & Politics
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The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
Law & Politics
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Late last year, Mark Zuckerberg faced a choice: Comply with demands from Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party to censor anti-government dissidents or risk getting knocked offline in one of Facebook’s most lucrative Asian markets.
In America, the tech CEO is a champion of free speech, reluctant to remove even malicious and misleading content from the platform.
But in Vietnam, upholding the free-speech rights of people who question government leaders could have come with a significant cost in a country where the social network earns more than $1 billion in annual revenue, according to a 2018 estimate by Amnesty International.
So Zuckerberg personally decided that Facebook would comply with Hanoi’s demands, according to three people familiar with the decision, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal company discussions.
Ahead of Vietnam’s party congress in January, Facebook significantly increased censorship of “anti-state” posts, giving the government near-total control over the platform, according to local activists and free-speech advocates.
For example, Zuckerberg testified last year before Congress that the company removes 94 percent of the hate speech it finds before a human reports it — but internal documents show that its researchers estimated that the company was removing less than 5 percent of hate speech on Facebook
Zuckerberg “has to be the driver of these decisions,” said Sean McKessy, the first chief of the SEC’s whistleblower office, now representing whistleblowers in private practice at Phillips & Cohen.
“This is not a typical public company with checks and balances. This is not a democracy, it’s an authoritarian state. … And although the SEC doesn’t have the strongest track record of holding individuals accountable, I certainly could see this case as being a poster child for doing so.”
Zuckerberg has long been obsessed with metrics, growth and neutralizing competitive threats, according to numerous people who have worked with him.
The company’s use of “growth-hacking” tactics, such as tagging people in photos and buying lists of email addresses, was key to achieving its remarkable size — 3.51 billion monthly users, nearly half the planet.
Zuckerberg, said a former executive, “is extremely inquisitive about anything that impacts how content gets ranked in the feed — because that’s the secret sauce, that’s the way this whole thing keeps spinning and working and making profits.”
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Algorithm control > Military power @oliviercantin
Law & Politics
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. @Facebook Metaverse @DaveLeeFT
Law & Politics
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26 MAR 18 :: @Facebook
Law & Politics
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“We just put information into the bloodstream to the internet and then watch it grow, give it a little push every now and again over time to watch it take shape. And so this stuff infiltrates the online community and expands but with no branding – so it’s unattributable, untraceable.”
“It’s no use fighting elections on the facts; it’s all about emotions.”
“So the candidate is the puppet?” the undercover reporter asked. “Always,” replied Nix.
Traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents can broadcast live and over the top from feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.
In an extraordinary boomerang, The US’ adversaries have turned social media on its head and used it as a ‘’Trojan Horse’’ via psychographic profiling and micro-targeting at a mass scale.
The fundamental challenge for Facebook is this: It has represented itself as an ‘’Infomediary’’
An infomediary works as a personal agent on behalf of consumers to help them take control over information gathered about them.
The concept of the infomediary was first suggested by John Hagel III in the book Net Worth.
However, Facebook has been hawking this information as if it were an intermediary.
This is its ‘’trust gap’’. That gap is set to widen further. Facebook is facing an existentialist crisis.
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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics
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The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilised perception, in order to manage and control
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Global turning point in cases, again. @fibke
Misc.
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Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.
Misc.
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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 59 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.
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20 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve
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Eastern Europe is a disaster. Mistrust of government, strong anti-vaccine propaganda reaching all age groups, and attempted mitigation measures are ignored. @FourWinns298
Misc.
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―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences
Misc.
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The growth of deaths in Europe (including Russia*) & the lack of decrease of deaths in the US have stopped the global decrease of deaths @Marco_Piani
Misc.
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One may probably expect one more (Northern hemisphere Winter) pandemic wave of infections&deaths, hopefully of a smaller scale than last year
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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Misc.
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Reminder 1000 fold more virus is 1000 fold faster evolution @fitterhappierAJ
Misc.
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28-MAR-2021 we are seeing a sustained acceleration in mutant viruses.
Misc.
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This week's covid19.sanger.ac.uk update: AY.4.2 continues slow climb in proportion: 9.7% in England in our most recent two week average, just over 10% if you look only at the most recent week of data. @jcbarret
Misc.
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Another week consistent with small, but real, growth advantage vs. other Δ.
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23-AUG-2021 :: But Holmes was startled. “This virus has gone up three notches in effectively a year and that, I think, was the biggest surprise to me”
Misc.
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As to the goal of reaching herd immunity— “With the emergence of Delta, I realized that it’s just impossible to reach that,” says Müge Çevik University of St. Andrews. Via @ScienceMagazine @kakape
Misc.
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Although over 90% of adults in the UK have antibodies, more are currently infected with Sars-2 with symptoms than they have ever been during the pandemic - every 66th! @MarcBrup
Misc.
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23-AUG-2021 :: We have now crossed peak Vaccine Euphoria
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What happens next depends not only on vaccination, but also on how the virus might mutate. @derspiegel
Misc.
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"This virus keeps surprising us," agrees Mary Bushman, a mathematician and population biologist at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
"No one expected such large jumps in contagiousness.”
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Most of the completely unvaccinated are in Africa or Asia @fibke
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Billy predicting the future @still_a_nerd
Misc.
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04-JAN-2021 :: Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19.
Misc.
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Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19.
It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later.
Those who have chosen to propagate this narrative are above the radar and in plain sight and need to be called to account.
The Utter Failure to call these 5th columnists to Account is the clearest Signal that there is no external threat because it is already on the inside.
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International Markets
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1603
Dollar Index 93.966
Japan Yen 114.045
Swiss Franc 0.9194
Pound 1.3771
Aussie 0.7522
India Rupee 74.945
South Korea Won 1169.935
Brazil Real 5.6050
Egypt Pound 15.7115
South Africa Rand 14.8475
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Dollar Index Chart INO 93.966
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1603
World Currencies
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This makes perfect sense, right? @MichalStupavsky
World Currencies
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Tesla is now more than 3 std deviations above the 100 dma. The most at an all time high since the peak in February 2020. @SuburbanDrone
World Of Finance
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$TSLA #SchumannResonance This is rather interesting. Gamma Squeeze began with a SR Burst and peaked with Gamma SR, coincided with the M Flare h/t @_SpaceWeather_ @DarkPoolTrade
World Of Finance
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold INO 1787
Commodities
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Global Oil Consumption vs Global Oil Production @chigrl
Commodities
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Crude Oil INO 84.06
Commodities
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Goldman forecasting at least 150 bps rate hike in Brazil tomorrow, doesn't rule out 200 bps ! @ReutersJamie
Emerging Markets
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Brazilian interest rates to hit 11% by March next year, says Citi, forecasting 150 bps rise tomorrow. Selic rate currently 6.25% (was a record low 2% in January). @ReutersJamie
Emerging Markets
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The number of active cases of #Covid19 in #Africa was down again this week – there were 439,461 cases as of midnight on Thursday. @OEAfrica
Africa
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19-JUL-2021 Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.
Africa
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Update on the number of new #covid19 cases and deaths reported in #Africa. Yesterday, there were 3,218 new cases and 152 new deaths. @BeautifyData
Africa
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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 64 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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Drinking the Kool-Aid
Africa
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Share of Population fully vaccinated in Africa @AsjadNaqvi
Africa
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China Says Allegations It Causes Debt Trap for Africa Are False @bpolitics
Africa
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China said it was false to claim that its lending practices have pushed African nations into debt traps, blaming a host of economic factors instead and criticizing media reports on the topic.
African nations’ debt problems are a historical issue, and also the result of rising protectionism and currency factors, Zhou Liujun, vice chairman of China International Development Cooperation Agency told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday.
The agency is a body under the State Council that provide plans and policies on foreign aid.
“Facts and data fully show that this accusation is purely politically driven,” he said.
“Its real intention is to drive a wedge between China and Africa’s friendly and cooperative relations.”
China fully considered the debt condition of African nations and their repayment capabilities when offering loans, Zhou said, adding that it will “strengthen cooperation and communication with different parties to help African countries to face their debt problems.”
China has come under fire for its lending practices to developing nations, particularly around the confidentiality of contracts between its state banks and debtor nations.
Several African countries, including Kenya and Zambia, have struggled to repay their loans as the Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on their economies.
On the Paris Club of mainly Western creditor nations, Zhou said China has been involved in some of the club’s activities and has smooth communication with its members.
The Paris Club last year combined forces with the Group of 20 nations to provide debt relief to poorer nations.
The World Bank and others have pressured China to provide more relief.
Deng Boqing, vice chairman of the development agency, said at the same briefing that Beijing has no tolerance for corruption in projects linked to its Belt & Road Initiative, a massive multi-country infrastructure program. China has been transparent in its BRI projects, he said.
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China Africa Win Win
Africa
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And the entire China Africa relationship has been an extraordinary exercise in Narrative Framing and linguistic control, accompanied by a chorus of Party Hacks chirruping Hosannas at every turn amplifying largely meaningless feel good Phrases artfully placed in the mouths of our Politicians and our Newspapers. It is remarkable.
To quote a Chinese saying, "The ocean is vast because it rejects no rivers."
"The red rising sun will light up the road ahead."
''How this plays out is now the key to Sino-African relations going forward. A Hambantota scenario would be problematic,”
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9-JUL-2021 :: The Contagion will surely boomerang and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
Africa
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Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is in Gen Burhan's house for his own security. The oxymoron of Sudanese coup. @QulshTM
Africa
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The Burhan coup will be short-lived. A non-starter. @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa
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Sudan capital locked down after coup triggers deadly unrest @Reuters
Africa
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Roads were blocked, shops were shut, phones were down and people queued for bread in Sudan on Tuesday, a day after the army seized power in a coup that triggered unrest in which at least seven people were killed.
Life came to a halt in the capital Khartoum and its twin city Omdurman across the Nile, with roads blocked either by soldiers or by barricades erected by protesters.
Calls for a general strike could be heard blaring from mosque loudspeakers.
The night appeared to have passed comparatively quietly after Monday's unrest, when protesters took to the streets after soldiers arrested Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and other civilians in the cabinet.
A health ministry official said seven people had been killed in clashes between protesters and the security forces.
The leader of the takeover, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, dissolved the military-civilian Sovereign Council set up to guide Sudan to democracy following the overthrow of long-ruling autocrat Omar al-Bashir in a popular uprising two years ago.
Burhan announced a state of emergency, saying the armed forces needed to protect safety and security.
He promised to hold elections in July 2023 and hand over to an elected civilian government then.
On Tuesday he dissolved committees that govern trade unions, Arabic news channels reported.
The Sudan information ministry, still loyal to Hamdok, said on its Facebook page the transitional constitution gave only the prime minister the right to declare an emergency and the military's actions were a crime.
Hamdok was still the legitimate transitional authority, it said.
The main roads and bridge between Khartoum and Omdurman were closed to vehicles by the military.
Banks and cash machines were shut, and mobile phone apps widely used for money transfers could not be accessed.
Some bakeries were open in Omdurman but people were queuing for several hours, longer than usual.
"We are paying the price for this crisis," a man in his 50s looking for medicine at one of the pharmacies where stocks have been running low said angrily. "We can't work, we can't find bread, there are no services, no money."
The Sudanese Professionals Association, an activist coalition that played a major role in the uprising that toppled Bashir, has called for a strike.
Hamdok, an economist and former senior U.N. official, was detained and taken to an undisclosed location on Monday after refusing to issue a statement in support of the takeover, the information ministry said.
Troops also arrested other civilian government figures and members of the Sovereign Council.
Western governments have condemned the coup, called for the release of the detained civilian leaders and threatened to cut off aid, which Sudan needs to recover from an economic crisis.
The United States has said it was immediately pausing delivery of $700 million in emergency support.
Sudan has been ruled for most of its post-colonial history by military leaders who seized power in coups.
It had become a pariah to the West and was on a U.S. terrorism blacklist under Bashir, who hosted Osama bin Laden in the 1990s and is wanted by the International Criminal Court in the Hague for war crimes.
Since Bashir was toppled, the military shared power uneasily with civilians under a transition meant to lead to elections in 2023.
The country had been on edge since last month when a failed coup plot, blamed on Bashir supporters, unleashed recriminations between the military and civilians.
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Three states crucial to longevity of Burhan's coup - Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt. @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa
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20 JAN 20 :: The Intrusion of Middle Powers
Africa
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In fact, from the Maghreb to the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, we are witnessing a surge in asymmetric warfare and the intrusion of Middle Powers.
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Day 2 of #military_coup_in_sudan, people heeded the call for a mass strike that saw all stay at home; shps and businesses closed, streets deserted. @MakawiRaga
Africa
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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
Africa
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As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, the protestors could have been our wives, children.
The other vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw.
Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.
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More footage of student protests in Khartoum, October/Nov. 1964. In the face of organized protest General Abboud resigned on 16 Nov., clearing the way for a new period of democratic government in Sudan. @Unseen_Archive
Africa
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“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street,’’
Africa
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What kind of madness is it for the Sudanese army to takeover in a country on the edge of an economic abyss? @drmwarsame
Africa
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What kind of madness is it for the Sudanese army to takeover in a country on the edge of an economic abyss? It just received Debt forgiveness under HIPC, is under tremendous social stress & dependent on foreign resources to stabilize & reintegrate into the global economy.
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According to IMF Article IV (2019)- Sudan was projected with 1.5 months of import cover, Fx reserves of only $1.1bn & external debt of $57.5bn. The real GDP having -ve growth for 3yrs in a row & inflation at 70.2% @drmwarsame
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.85
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.7115
Africa
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Listen to @clarissefortune explain what the e-Naira is: @MwangoCapital
Africa
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The #Nigeria #eNaira, Africa’s first digital currency, will do little to solve the country’s monetary issues @OEAfrica
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Uganda bus blast a 'suicide bomb attack': police @AFP
Africa
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The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a bomb attack at a restaurant in Kampala, #Uganda on Saturday. One person was killed, and several others injured. @OEAfrica
Africa
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This is the second attack this month claimed by IS, raising concern about growing insecurity in the country.
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"In sub-Saharan Africa, 12 million new people enter the workforce every year. They cannot run successful businesses in the dark." - @BrookingsInst @gyude_moore
Africa
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.@EABL_PLC East African Breweries Ltd share price data
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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.@EABL_PLC corporate bond has been oversubscribed at the rate of 245% as investor bids top Kes38 billion against an initial target of Kes11 billion @MaudhuiHouse
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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The five-year paper has a yield of 12.25 percent per year that is payable every six months @EABL_PLC @MaudhuiHouse
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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The rainy season. @MihrThakar
Africa
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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Africa
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Drought Drought everywhere & when it rains it goes to waste. Pastoralists need to find ways to harvest the rain water! @WehliyeMohamed
Kenyan Economy
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Breaking News: The Nairobi Securities Exchange has today received regulatory approval to roll out Day Trading @Tradingroomke
N.S.E General
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Every .@NSE_PLC Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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