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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 06th of April 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

http://www.rich.co.ke

I thank the @Kenya_Chamber and the Chairman Kiprono Kittony for the
invite to Dinner yesterday with the Seychelles Delegation. It was a
Pleasure to meet the Seychelles Ministers for Foreign Affairs and
Tourism and to catch up with CS Amina Mohammed and Willy Bett. Thanks
Kip.

Macro Thoughts

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Petrichor
Africa


Petrichor (/ˈpɛtrᵻkɔər/) is the earthy scent produced when rain falls
on dry soil. The word is constructed from Greek petra, meaning
"stone", and ichor, the fluid that flows in the veins of the gods in
Greek mythology.

In 2015, MIT scientists used high-speed cameras to record how the
scent moves into the air.[5] The tests involved approximately 600
experiments on 28 different surfaces, including engineered materials
and soil samples.[6] When a raindrop lands on a porous surface, air
from the pores forms small bubbles, which float to the surface and
release aerosols.[5] Such aerosols carry the scent, as well as
bacteria and viruses from the soil.[5] Raindrops that move at a slower
rate tend to produce more aerosols; this serves as an explanation for
why the petrichor is more common after light rains.[5]

Some scientists believe that humans appreciate the rain scent because
ancestors may have relied on rainy weather for survival.[7]

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Like Middle East Wars? You're Gonna Love President Trump @Politico
Law & Politics


In the few short months since he became president, Donald Trump has
made clear that his No. 1 foreign policy priority is to “demolish and
destroy” Islamic terrorism. Just a week after taking office, Trump
visited the Pentagon to task his generals to develop a comprehensive
plan to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), saying with
characteristic confidence: “I think it’s going to be very successful.”

In charting a new course to combat terrorism across the greater Middle
East, Trump has both embraced and rejected elements of the George W.
Bush and Barack Obama approaches—but he has done so in an almost
perfectly dysfunctional way. He has escalated U.S. military actions,
while remaining diplomatically aloof from festering conflicts and
de-emphasizing non-military instruments of American power. The result,
so far, is a kind of bizarro-Goldilocks approach: not hot enough, not
cold enough—just wrong. Left uncorrected, the emerging Trump doctrine
will result in more war, but few sustainable gains against terrorism
emanating from the world's most dangerous region.

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President Trump is erasing the red line in Syria and drawing a hard line on North Korea @cnni
Law & Politics


Conclusions

The Idea that Assad after receiving a Free Pass from Tillerson and
Sean Spicer - You will recall - would use chemical weapons is just not
credible. This is another Rebel laid CW Trip-wire.

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The Red Line and the Rat Line @LRB
Law & Politics


Seymour M. Hersh on Obama, Erdoğan and the Syrian rebels

Obama’s change of mind had its origins at Porton Down, the defence
laboratory in Wiltshire. British intelligence had obtained a sample of
the sarin used in the 21 August attack and analysis demonstrated that
the gas used didn’t match the batches known to exist in the Syrian
army’s chemical weapons arsenal.

ccording to the expert, Erdoğan had sought the meeting to demonstrate
to Obama that the red line had been crossed, and had brought Fidan
along to state the case. When Erdoğan tried to draw Fidan into the
conversation, and Fidan began speaking, Obama cut him off and said:
‘We know.’ Erdoğan tried to bring Fidan in a second time, and Obama
again cut him off and said: ‘We know.’ At that point, an exasperated
Erdoğan said, ‘But your red line has been crossed!’ and, the expert
told me, ‘Donilon said Erdoğan “fucking waved his finger at the
president inside the White House”.’ Obama then pointed at Fidan and
said: ‘We know what you’re doing with the radicals in Syria.’
(Donilon, who joined the Council on Foreign Relations last July,
didn’t respond to questions about this story. The Turkish Foreign
Ministry didn’t respond to questions about the dinner. A spokesperson
for the National Security Council confirmed that the dinner took place
and provided a photograph showing Obama, Kerry, Donilon, Erdoğan,
Fidan and Davutoğlu sitting at a table. ‘Beyond that,’ she said, ‘I’m
not going to read out the details of their discussions.’)

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0673
Dollar Index 100.49
Japan Yen 110.47
Swiss Franc 1.0034
Pound 1.2479
Aussie 0.7540
India Rupee 65.025
South Korea Won 1133.05
Brazil Real 3.1213
Egypt Pound 17.9985
South Africa Rand 13.8276

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Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 50.88
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Congolese President Jospeh Kabila has just wrapped up a wide-ranging speech to MPs in the capital Kinshasa.
Africa


On the political front, he said that he will name a new prime minister
in the next 48 hours, a post which is to be held by an opposition
member as part of a deal brokered by the Catholic church.

Mr Kabila also committed to holding elections later in the year but
did not give a date.

Conclusions


He is in the Box Seat.

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Oil's Price Slide Drives 50% Drop in Angola Capital Office Rents
Africa


The cost of renting an office in the Angolan capital Luanda has almost
halved in two years as a slide in oil prices damages what had been one
of Africa’s fastest-growing economies.

More than 20 percent of new office buildings in the city are empty,
and there’s also oversupply in the Nigerian centers of Lagos and
Abuja, Knight Frank LLP said in a report. While oil-exporting nations
are suffering, some of the smaller east African economies such as
Tanzania have seen their real estate markets benefit from the drop in
crude, with rents in Dar es Salaam relatively high and vacancy rates
low, according to the consultancy.

Monthly prime office rents in Luanda fell to an average of $80 per
square meter this year from $150 in 2015, while rates dropped 45
percent to $33 in Abuja and 21 percent to $67 in Lagos, according to
Knight Frank. Johannesburg prices dropped 23 percent, while those in
Dar es Salaam held steady.

Apart from Tanzania, other hot spots in this “multi-speed Africa”
include Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda, with Ivory Coast and Senegal in
the west also benefiting from improved political stability and
infrastructure investment, Welborn said.

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Angola and Nigeria are poised to send crude to China at the rate of 1.48 million barrels a day in April most since Bloomberg began compiling data
Africa


Conclusions


There is also the issue in Angola where Angola might be having to pump
more oil [lower prices] in order to meet its oil for loans obligations
to China.

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What's behind South African finance minister's sacking? @sapresident @AJInsideStory
Africa


Presenter: Sami Zeidan
Guests:
Bongani Mbindwane - ANC supporter, businessman and newspaper columnist
Lawson Naidoo - executive director of the Council for the Advancement
of the South African Constitution
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.61% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.8275

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9985

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.22% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.36% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Mozambique's Ex-Leader Dragged Into $2 Billion Probe
Africa


Mozambique’s attorney-general asked the country’s banks to provide
details of former President Armando Guebuza’s accounts as part of an
audit of $2 billion of previously undisclosed government loans.

The office requested the information about Guebuza and 17 other
individuals and an institution for the period January 2012 to December
2016, according to a letter sent to the country’s banks and obtained
by Bloomberg. Georgina Zandamela, a press officer at the
attorney-general’s office, said the request forms part of an audit
being carried out by New York-based risk analysis firm Kroll Inc. of
Mozambique’s debt.

“This document is part of the preparatory instruction of a Secrecy of
Justice process that’s before the courts, so we can’t comment,” she
said by phone.

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi in January fired Gregorio Leao Jose,
director-general of the State Information and Security Service, which
had indirect shareholdings in the companies that contracted the hidden
debt.

The decision showed Nyusi is “asserting his control” over the ruling
party ahead of its general congress in September, where opponents plan
to remove him from power, Darias Jonker, an analyst at Eurasia Group
in London, said in an email last month.

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.@Markit @StanbicKE Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 48.5, first time the index had fallen below 50 mark since the survey began
Kenyan Economy


The Markit Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped
to 48.5, the first time the index had fallen below the 50 mark since
the survey began in January 2014. A reading above 50.0 indicates
growth.

"Most indicators of activity showed deceleration. Respondents to the
survey indicated weaker underlying demand

conditions, exacerbated by financial constraints faced by customers,"
Jibran Qureishi, regional economist for East Africa at Stanbic, said.

"The seasonally adjusted output index indicated that output contracted
for the second month in a row."

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@NationMediaGrp reports FY EPS 16 -24.576% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           95.00
Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00
Market Capitalization:        17,911,517,170
EPS:             8.9
PE:               10.674


NMG reports FY 16 Earnings here

FY Revenue 11.3248b vs. 12.3395b -8.223%
FY Profit before tax 2.4600b vs. 2.8232b -12.865%
FY Profit after tax 1.6889b vs. 2.2227b -24.016%
FY Other comprehensive income [54.2m] vs. [151.6m] -64.248%
EPS 8.9 vs. 11.8 -24.576%
Total dividend per share 10.0 vs. 10.0 –
Total equity 8.7029b vs. 8.9537b -2.801%

Company Commentary

The Business environment was challenging in 2016. Revenue shortfall
occasioned mainly by a drop in advertising volumes.
Tax expense in 2016 was significantly higher than the previous year as
the 2015 tax benefited from a one-off investment deduction allowance
from new printing press installation


·         EPS declined 25% y/y to KES 8.90 largely attributable to a
higher effective tax while PBT came down 13% y/y.
·         Earnings declined on account of reduced revenue (-8% y/y)
and one-off expenditures, but supported by decreased cost of sales
(-18% y/y).
·         There was a drop in advertising from the government and key
clients on account of challenging economic environment.
·         The government earlier this year said they would stop
advertising on commercial media and instead advertise through their
newspaper ‘MyGov’.
·         Digital revenue (+14% y/y) and overall circulation down 2-3%.
·         Revenues: Daily Nation (-6% y/y), Business Daily (+1% y/y),
Daily Monitor (-20% y/y), Mwananchi (-23% y/y), NTV (+7% y/y), NTV
Uganda (-29% y/y).
·         Cost of sales decreased due to improved efficiencies from
the new printing press.
·         Effective tax rate reported at 31% against 21% the prior
year where there was investment deduction on the new plant.
·         One-off expenditures related to the closure of TV and radio
stations at KES 142.0m, staff reorganization costs (KES 138.0m) and
startup of Spark TV at KES 48.0m.
·         A final DPS of KES 7.50 has been proposed, in addition to
the interim DPS of KES 2.50, bringing the total DPS for FY 16 to KES
10.00 (maintained from FY 15). (Source: Company,Kestrel Research)

 .@joe_muganda: 3 weeks ago we relaunched @BD_Africa. We’ve seen an
increase in copy sales up to 20%. #NMGInvestorBriefing @NationMediaGrp
"It's tough in as far as advertising is concerned; and the reason is
simple:The economy isn't doing well" - Joe Muganda
#NMGInvestorBriefing @FQanini
Joe Muganda | Approximately 900,000 internet users visit our websites
each day. This number is growing. #NMGInvestorBriefing @NationMediaGrp
Stephen Gitagama: Print revenue in the Daily Nation has declined 6%,
but costs down 22%. #NMGInvestorBriefing @NationMediaGrp
You cannot grow business by cutting costs. We have to be innovative
and find new revenue streams ~ @joe_muganda #NMGInvestorBriefing
Nation Media Group declares full year dividend of KSh 10.00, despite
drop in profitability and in earnings per share. #NMGInvestorBriefing
@wgkantai

Conclusions


Nation FY Earnings Per share declined -25% on the back of an 8% FY
Revenue decline.
The CEO Joe Muganda said "It's tough in as far as advertising is
concerned; and the reason is simple:The economy isn't doing well"
NTV booked a +7% Year on Year Revenue gain, Business Daily eked out a
1% Year on Year Revenue gain, whilst the flag-ship Daily Nation was
-6%, Daily Monitor -20%, Mwananchi -23% and NTV Uganda -29%. Digital
Revenue [towards which NMG has pivoted] was +14% which looks seriously
lackadaisical. Nation Media maintained its FY Dividend Pay Out of 10/=
and is paying a Final Dividend of 7.50 a share. The Dividend Pay-Out
is 112.35% of the FY Earnings Per Share. Nation stamped down hard on
Costs which were -22% Year on Year. Its been a torrid year for the
Media Industry and headline growth has been hard to find.  They seem
to have right-sized the Cost Base but its difficult to see where the
growth rebound comes from.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.235
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -1.51% 2017 [3 month highs]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.67% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Kijabe Street, Nairobi. Photo by @nairobiphoet

https://twitter.com/kenyapics/status/848888571855597568

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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