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Monday 24th of April 2017
 
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Macro Thoughts

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Markets loving Macron. Results for 1st round of #France's presidential elections set off a classic risk-on rally. (via BBG) @Schuldensuehner
Africa


“People want to get into environments that are peaceful, stable and
friendly to business” Ghana’s Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia

read more






Gunmen shoot, injure conservationist Gallmann in Kenya
Africa


NAIROBI (Reuters) - Gunmen shot and wounded Italian-born
conservationist Kuki Gallmann at her conservation park in northern
Kenya on Sunday, a source close to her family said.

The 73-year-old author of the memoir I Dreamed of Africa was shot in
the stomach after the vehicle she was driving in was ambushed by a
group of gunmen, the source said.

Gallmann was flown by helicopter to Nanyuki Hospital where she is
undergoing treatment.

read more










Pascal Riche @pascalriche
Law & Politics


Résultats finaux:
Macron 23,75%
Le Pen 21,53%
Fillon 19,91%
Mélenchon 19,64%
Hamon 6,35%
Dupont-A 4.75%

Participation 78.69% (2012: 80.42%)

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As the French Go to the Polls, Uncertainty Is the Only Sure Bet ODDSCHECKER via @Schuldensuehner
Law & Politics


"It is no secret that we will not be cheering madly should Sunday's
result produce a second round between Le Pen and Melenchon," German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said

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The election is a "volcano" risk, according to Citi, with the "nightmare" scenario being a run-off between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Law & Politics


The election is a “volcano” risk, according to Citi, with the
“nightmare” scenario being a run-off between Marine Le Pen and
Jean-Luc Melenchon. In terms of language, at least, analysts at Nomura
go further: a Le Pen presidency, given her desire to take France out
of the euro, would be the “nuclear” option. Of course, none of that
might happen and the coming week could see a relief rally across the
board.

read more


THE PERSISTENCE OF TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME By Adam Gopnik
Law & Politics


Our problem is not Trump Derangement Syndrome; our problem is Deranged
Trump Self-Delusion. This is the habit of willfully substituting, as a
motive for Trump’s latest action, a conventional political or
geostrategic ambition, rather than recognizing the action as the daily
spasm of narcissistic gratification and episodic vanity that it truly
is.

The bombing of Syria, for instance, was not a sudden lurch either in
the direction of liberal interventionism, à la Bill Clinton in the
lands that were once Yugoslavia, nor was it a sudden reassertion of a
neo-con version of American power, à la both Bushes in Iraq. It was,
as best as anyone can understand, simply a reaction to an image,
turned into a self-obsessed lashing out that involved the lives and
deaths of many people. It was a detached gesture, unconnected to
anything resembling a sequence of other actions, much less an
ideology. Nothing followed from it, and no “doctrine” or even a single
speech justified it. There is no credible evidence that Trump’s
humanity was outraged by the act of poisoning children, only that
Trump’s vanity was wounded by the seeming insult to America and, by
extension, to him. It may be perfectly true that the failure of the
Obama Administration to act sooner in Syria will go down forever, in
the historical ledgers, as a reproach against it; or it may be that
the wisdom of the Obama Administration in not getting engaged in
another futile Middle Eastern folly will go down in its favor. But it
is self-deluding to think that Trump’s action was meant to be in any
way remedial. It was purely ritual, and the ritual acted out was the
interminable Trumpist ritual of lashing out at those who fail to
submit, the ritual act of someone whose inner accounting is conducted
exclusively in terms of wounds given, worship received, and winnings
displayed. (Perhaps his elder daughter, Ivanka, did play some small
part in the action, as her brother Eric suggested in an interview, but
this is hardly a comfort; the politics of a mad king with a court are
no more reassuring than those of a mad king alone.)

The claim, made in the campaign, that he would supply universal
insurance at a low cost, even to those with preëxisting conditions,
didn’t even rise to the level of wishful thinking. Wishful thinking
involves thought. Instead, it was, as with the Duke and Dauphin in
“Huckleberry Finn,” a way of mouthing words that might placate a crowd
or assert his own magical powers. It was simply an episode in a game
show in which someone (always Trump) had to win and someone else
(anyone who won’t submit to him) had to lose. Even to call this
zero-sum thinking is to flatter it as thought. It never gets far
enough beyond zero to be part of a sum, as opposed to mere flat-lined
limbic-system reflexes.

The problem is that he is the President of the United States, and that
the one appetite that he does have is for announcing his authority
through violence, a thing capable of an unimaginable resonance and
devastation. That’s the only Trump Syndrome we ought to worry about,
and it can become deranged.

read more





24-APR-2017 :: The UK Economy is not going to Fall off a Cliff @TheStarKenya
International Trade


I cut my Trip short to London, which City I have always enjoyed since
being sent to Westminster School at the age of 13 and in January 1979
during the ''Winter of discontent'' Mrs. Thatcher and the Iranian
Revolution happened that year. Gil Scott-Heron [who was a Poet Rapper
character] said - ''The Revolution Will Not Be Televised'' [it might
not be in places like the DR Congo] but the Iranian Revolution
unfolded on our Television screens. After a brief interlude up North
at Durham University, I started working in the City of London. So
London is to me like Mombasa and I was keen to take the temperature.
On my return somewhere in the Lounge at Dubai Airport, I learnt that
Theresa May had called a snap election and then i reflexively [I have
always been reflexive about the markets as I have know become about
Donald Trump's Tweets with are just so live and direct] looked at the
price of the Pound. The Pound had found an Off-Ramp and rallied from
just above 1.2500 to the dollar to as high as 1.2900 [momentarily] and
closed out the week at 1.2805. I recalled a meeting in Nairobi where I
had been laying out a bull case for the Pound [I see an eventual
return to 1.40 versus the Dollar with equates to 144.20 versus the
Shilling] and the Gentleman in question had painted a dystopian Future
and talked of sub-parity versus the Dollar. So allow me to start with
the Pound. Last week's price action was an important signal. I see the
Prime Minister Theresa May winning this snap General Election by a
mile like Shergar did when he won the Epsom Derby. Respectfully,
Jeremy Corbyn strikes me as a Neil Kinnock figure and she is going to
parlay her Party's 20-plus-point lead over Labour into a huge
Majority. Political Risk is not going away but its not going to be
about Prime Minister May not having a mandate. That will mark a big
shift. There is a sizeable short position in the Pound. There were a
lot of Naysayers out there smelling a good old fashioned Sterling
crisis in the air like the Fellow I met in Nairobi. These Short
Sellers are going to be well and truly burned, in my opinion. My
ground-level observations from London are as follows. This Economy is
not going to fall off a cliff. Its a resilient plucky economy and has
always survived on its wits and splitting off from Europe is going to
prove a big Catalyst for getting back in touch wit its inner Pysche.
And in a world of serious uncertainty, the Pound has the Potential to
morph into a Swiss Franc, a safe haven as it were. So my Point is
Selling Sterling is yesterdays call and its time to look at this from
a different perspective.

A very interesting currency Pair to look at now is Euro-Sterling. The
1st Round of the French Elections will be reported in the early hours
of the morning [which, by the way, was how BREXIT and Trump was
reported - markets have moved enormously of late in the early hours]
and the first reaction will be interesting. Markets have lulled
themselves into a sense of security that Marine Le Pen will not break
clear of the pack in the 1st Round [she is scoring around 23% and
anything above 26.5% will be noteworthy and something close to 30%
would send the Euro into a Tail-Spin] and be triangulated in the 2nd
round. If we see a big score from Marine Le Pen and that would be
something around 30%, we shall see a big reaction to the downside.
Anything in line with 23% will spark a further rebound in the Euro. Le
Pen has already served notice on the Euro and her desire to press the
Exit Button. Euro-Sterling was last trading at 0.8374 [1 Year Trading
Range 0.7600-0.9100] and is a currency pair worth keeping an eye. I
expect a move back to 0.7600.

Crude Oil crashed and burned big last week. West Texas Intermediate
for June delivery dropped $1.09, or 2.2 percent, to $49.62 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It’s the lowest close since March
29. I expect further selling and a move back to $47.00 and a break
below that would bring $40.00 a barrel into view. Some Oil Producers
had started to get ''cocky'' but look at Caracas which is a harbinger
for other Oil Capitals.

Gold closed out the week unchanged week on week and at $1,285.00 an
ounce. The Point is that Geopolitical Risk whilst elevated has entered
a New Normal. President Trump has injected a neck-jerking whiplash
level of uncertainty into the equation. I see Gold reading $1,350.00
over the next few months.

We live in interesting times, thats for sure.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0850
Dollar Index 99.74
Japan Yen 110.02
Swiss Franc 0.9970
Pound 1.2796
Aussie 0.7556
India Rupee 64.552
South Korea Won 1133.04
Brazil Real 3.1484
Egypt Pound 17.9240
South Africa Rand 13.0280

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Crude Oil Chart 49.86
Commodities


Oil Falls Below $50 as Surging U.S. Output Undermines OPEC Cuts

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery dropped $1.09, or 2.2
percent, to $49.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It’s
the lowest close since March 29. Total volume traded was about 8
percent above the 100-day average at 2:40 p.m.

Brent for June settlement declined $1.03, or 1.9 percent, to $51.96 a
barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices fell 7
percent this week. The global benchmark crude closed at a $2.34
premium to WTI.

read more


Shale's the Wild Horse OPEC Can't Tame By Julian Lee
Commodities


It was all so simple. By lifting restraints on output, Saudi Arabia
would stop subsidizing high-cost oil producers and halt the rapid rise
in U.S. production that was eating into OPEC's market share. At least,
that was the logic back in November 2014.But things haven't gone
according to plan. OPEC's four-month experiment with production curbs
has failed. More worryingly, the strength of shale's rebound suggests
that OPEC faces a long-term struggle against this new source of supply
in an industry where technological advances are the norm and today's
niche play becomes the next decade's global standard.

Total U.S. crude production has risen by more than 550,000 barrels a
day in the 20 weeks since OPEC decided to cut output, according to
weekly Department of Energy data. Much of that increase has come from
shale formations. If this rate of growth -- a little under 30,000
barrels a day of new supply each week -- continues, U.S. output could
top its recent peak of 9.61 million barrels a day shortly after OPEC
meets on May 25 to consider its next move.

OPEC's battle with shale has only just begun and initial evidence
suggests it may already have  been lost.

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Saudi King Restores State Employee Bonuses as Overhaul Broadens
Emerging Markets


King Salman restored bonuses and allowances for Saudi state employees,
appointed one of his sons as ambassador to the U.S. and promoted
another within the energy ministry, in the latest spate of decrees
aiming to bolster economic growth and reorganize the government.

The king said that the bonuses were restored as revenue increased and
the budget deficit declined, according to decrees carried by the
official Saudi Press Agency late on Saturday. He replaced the
commander of the land forces and ordered the Ministry of Finance to
pay a two-month salary bonus to Saudi forces serving on the front
lines with Yemen.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, a son of the king, was named Minister of
State for Energy Affairs, while Prince Khalid bin Salman was appointed
ambassador to the U.S.

read more


The economy shrank by 18.6% last year, according to an estimate by the central bank, leaked this month to Reuters, a news agency (see chart). Inflation was 800%.
Emerging Markets


In 2001 Venezuela was the richest country in South America; it is now
among the poorest.

Venezuela’s salsa-loving president, Nicolás Maduro, has responded to
bad news with bluster (he blames foreign and domestic “mafias”) and
denial. Soon after the leak of the central bank’s estimates he fired
its president, Nelson Merentes. Mr Maduro may have held him
responsible for the leak. Or he may have punished him for a botched
attempt by the government in December to introduce new banknotes.

Mr Maduro’s second hope is that oil prices will bounce back. They have
already recovered from $21 a barrel in 2016 to $45. But PDVSA has been
so badly managed and starved of investment that it will struggle to
reap the benefits. Output fell by 10% last year and no rise is likely
in 2017. Venezuela’s foreign reserves have dwindled to less than
$11bn; its easy-to-sell assets are about a fifth of that. Mr Maduro
vows that 2017 will be the “first year of the new history of the
Venezuelan economy”. That will not shorten the passport queues.

Frontier Markets

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South Africa must stand up for democracy on the continent. By MMUSI MAIMANE @MmusiMaimane
Africa


The events that are currently unfolding in Zambia should be deeply
concerning to those committed to democracy in Africa. The roots of
this political crisis can be traced to the flawed election that
President Edgar Lungu officially won in August 2016, following
credible reports of the abuse of state media and public funds for the
ruling party’s campaign, the shutting down of opposition newspapers,
widespread voter intimidation and a lack of transparency in the vote
counting process. In rubber-stamping this election, the international
community – including election observer missions – missed an important
opportunity to defend democracy and reject the abuse of power.

read more





Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.0147 [stunning rebound - more a global liquidity ting]
Africa


@AlArabiya_Eng #BREAKING: King Salman welcomes #Egypt's Sisi in #Riyadh

https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/856103960985391104

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9240

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.27% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.64% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Quantum’s newly launched Africa Investment Index.

http://bit.ly/2pSuedr

read more



Joblessness is an 'existential threat' to Kenya's future FT John Aglionby
Kenyan Economy


When Oliver Kigalu enrolled for his engineering degree seven years
ago, he never thought he would end up working as a construction
labourer. But that is how the 26-year-old now makes his living.

“When you leave college so many people are looking for jobs but it’s
very hard to get a decent one,” he says, as he queues for work outside
a half-built factory in Ruaraka in northern Nairobi. “I’m not using my
qualification at all, but the important thing is to make money and get
food.”

Mr Kigalu’s plight is becoming increasingly common in a country where
formal education has been prized. The government estimates university
enrolment more than doubled between 2012 and 2016 — to 540,000. But
youth unemployment was 17.4 per cent in 2014, according to the latest
data available from the World Bank — one of the highest rates in east
Africa.

Siddharth Chatterjee, the resident UN co-ordinator in Kenya, says
youth unemployment poses “an existential threat” to the region’s
largest economy.

The agriculture sector, in which he says some three-quarters of
Kenyans earn their living, exemplifies the crisis. “The median age of
Kenyan farmers is 61, but the median age of the population is 18,” he
says. “We need to make that sector tech-savvy and sexy for young
people. It is part of the greater challenge of preventing young people
leaving remote areas and moving to the cities.”

Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya’s president, has publicly recognised the extent
of the problem. In a speech delivered by his deputy at an education
forum in Nairobi earlier this month, Mr Kenyatta admitted that “the
market is saturated with degree-level graduates, at the expense of
middle-level [workers with the] relevant skills and competencies”.

In 2013, the government relaunched the lapsed National Youth Service,
first created in 1964 to provide education and voluntary work for
young people. It has also established the Youth Enterprise Development
Fund, a state corporation that provides financial and business support
to youth-owned businesses. Last month, Mr Kenyatta said that almost 1m
young Kenyans had used Ks11bn ($106m) from the fund to start and
expand businesses.

Those working on youth employment, however, say these attempts barely
scratch the surface. Rob Burnet, chief executive of Well Told Story, a
Kenya-based organisation that uses media and research to boost
livelihoods, especially those of the young, says the vast majority of
Kenya’s youth don’t want anything to do with the authorities.
“Government is at best a distraction and at worst a hindrance,” he
says. “Most are young people just trying to hustle their way through
life.”

The problem is worsening as Kenya’s youth bulge adds to the number of
people entering the labour market. “Last week I heard someone say for
the first time ‘I wish I’d never been to college’,” Mr Burnet says. “A
growing view now is that college just leads to debt and hopelessness.”

Still, he insists, the situation is not all doom and gloom. “There are
plenty of areas where many people are working without formal
employment and so they’re not captured by the official statistics,” he
says. “They’re surviving because they’re entrepreneurial.”

Kenya’s challenge is not just to help young people find jobs;
employers also need assistance finding staff. Mehdi Sinaceur, the
programme director for Generation Kenya, a scheme run by the
non-profit organisation McKinsey Social Initiative, says Kenya’s youth
has great ability and enthusiasm.

“What’s missing is the link between employers’ needs in the first few
months of employment and what the young people know,” Mr Sinaceur
says.

For the past two years, Generation Kenya has been running six- to
eight week-long courses for anyone who has at least finished secondary
school to help bridge this gap. Courses have included teaching
technical skills for a specific sector, appropriate behaviour and
professional mentoring.

In the first year 4,500 people attended the courses, of whom 90 per
cent found work that Mr Sinaceur says provides a decent living. The
goal is to help 50,000 people find work in five years.

Some 140 employers have joined the programme so far and Mr Sinaceur’s
team is extending it so that non-governmental organisations and
government departments can adapt the training to meet their particular
needs.

“Once you provide everyone with the right tools, the potential of
these young Kenyans is massive,” he says.

Mr Chatterjee, while praising such schemes — and Mr Kenyatta’s
commitment to tackling youth unemployment — believes they do not go
far enough.

“We need a Marshall Plan,” he says, referring to the US scheme that
helped Europe rebuild after the second world war. “The government has
to take responsibility in the way the Asian tigers did last century.
We need to see how to make the informal sector integrated into the
broader economy. If that can be done then the sky’s the limit.”

read more


Deacons (East Africa) Plc reports FY16 Loss [276.345m]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           4.40
Total Shares Issued:          123558228.00
Market Capitalization:        543,656,203
EPS:             -2.24
PE:                 0.000

FY Sales 2.309091b vs. 2.383297b -3.114%
FY Cost of sales [1.295175b] vs. [1.274514b] +1.621%
FY Gross profit 1.013916b vs. 1.108783b -8.556%
FY Other income 16.080m vs. 49.886m -67.767%
FY Total income 1.029996b vs. 1.277434b -19.370%
FY Administrative expenses [1.306460b] vs. [1.161412b] +12.489%
FY Net foreign exchange gains [42.167m] vs. 25.573m -264.889%
FY Total expenses [1.415053b] vs. [1.135839b] +24.582%
FY Operating [Loss]/ Profit before taxation [385.057m] vs. 141.595m -371.943%
FY [Loss]/ profit for the year [276.345m] vs. 113.750m -342.941%
Basic and diluted EPS [2.24] vs. 0.92 -343.478%
Total Assets 2.281680b vs. 2.486072b -8.221%
Shareholders’ Funds 1.172632b vs. 1.512294b -22.460%
Cash & cash equivalents as at 31st December [12.343m] vs. 136.724m -109.028%
No dividend

Company Commentary


in 2 of 2016, several factors negatively impacted the peak trading
season tat resulted in suppressed sales and margins. existing Malls
registered lower footfall and new retail property registered lower
purchase conversion rates that led to cannibalisation.
Revenues declined by -3.1% over Y2015 across key brands as a result of
product supply challenges from South Africa during 2 of the Year.

Conclusions


Soft FY Results, interesting commentary about Malls.

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.12% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.81% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,128.69 -20.64 -0.66%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The market reacted positively to the 1st Round Result in France.
Mr. Macron is ranked at 90% for the 2nd round against Marine Le Pen.
Curiously Hillary Clinton was ranked at those sorts of elevated levels
the day before the Election.
The Euro rallied to levels above 1.0900 to the Dollar [a November
high] before giving back a slice of its gains.
The German Dax and the French CAC-40 surged.
Activity was light at the Securities Exchange wit volume clocking 311.511m.
The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.15 to close at 133.65
The NSE20 Index rallied +14.46 points to close at 3143.15



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Deacons East Africa reported a Full Year Loss for 2016 of -276.345m
versus a FY Profit in 2015 of 113.75m. FY Sales declined -3.1114% and
Deacons skipped a Full Year Dividend. In the accompanying commentary

Deacons said ''several factors negatively impacted the peak trading
season that resulted in suppressed sales and margins. existing Malls
registered lower footfall and new retail property registered lower
purchase conversion rates that led to cannibalisation. Revenues
declined by -3.1% over Y2015 across key brands as a result of product
supply challenges from South Africa during H2 of the Year''

Deacons which had retreated -27.27% through 2017 closed unchanged at 4.40.

Safaricom eased -0.26% to close at 19.10 on light trading of 2.822m
shares. Expect Upside Price Action over the coming sessions.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB Group was the 2nd most actively traded share at the Exchange
firming +0.74% to regain a 2017 closing high of 34.25 with 1.319m
shares worth 45.248m changing hands. KCB is +19.13% through 2017 and
Investors are looking forward to snaffling up a 3 shilling dividend.
StanBic Bank closed unchanged at 58.00 and traded 723,500 shares.
There has been a material shareholding change hands in 2017.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL traded 279,800 shares all at 240.00 unchanged. EABL is -1.63%
through 2017 and as headroom.

ARM Cement rallied +4.35% to close at 24.00 and traded 1.834m shares.

Flame Tree Group was the biggest Winner at the Exchange and rallied
+7.53% to close at 5.00. FTG is -1.96% in 2017.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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