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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 27th of April 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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24-APR-2017 :: The pound had found an off-ramp, and rallied from just above 1.2500 to the dollar to as high as 1.2900 [momentarily]
Africa


The pound had found an off-ramp, and rallied from just above 1.2500 to
the dollar to as high as 1.2900 [momentarily] and closed out the week
at 1.2805. I recalled a meeting in Nairobi where I had been laying out
a bull case for the pound [I see an eventual return to 1.40 versus the
dollar which equates to 144.20 versus the shilling] and the gentleman
in question had painted a dystopian future and talked of sub-parity
versus the dollar.

So allow me to start with the pound. Last week’s price action was an
important signal. I see May winning this snap general election by a
mile like Shergar did when he won the Epsom Derby. Respectfully,
Jeremy Corbyn strikes me as a Neil Kinnock figure, and she is going to
parlay her party’s 20-plus- point lead over Labour into a huge
majority. Political Risk is not going away, but it’s not going to be
about May not having a mandate.  That will mark a big shift.  There is
a sizeable short position in the pound.  ere were a lot of naysayers
out there, smelling a good old-fashioned sterling crisis in the air
like the fellow I met in Nairobi.  These short sellers are going to be
well and truly burned, in my opinion.

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#Turkey Lira jumps after Turkey's CenBank has announced a surprise 50bps rate hike in the Late Liquidity Lending Rate from 11.75% to 12.25%. @Schuldensuehner
Africa


Home Thoughts


Hannah who is now 11 [and I took her, her sisters and her Mother for a
rather grand luncheon at the Connaught on her birthday] is the proud
owner of a night suit in the shape of a Unicorn.

This morning on the way to drop her to her pick-up at 6.05 am my
imagination started to race away and I wen t back to the unicorn and
said things like

''Darling don't Unicorns fly?''

''Lets just fly away and go somewhere remote and see the Elephants and
maybe look for some other unicorns!''

She puts on a very serious grandmotherly face and tells me how she has
school and exams in 2 weeks and I should grow up and start thinking a
bit more seriously about Life.

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Venezuela's Future Won't Be Settled in the Streets @BV
Law & Politics


So far Maduro has deployed only tear gas and (mostly) rubber bullets
against protesters. Yet his recent decision to arm and mobilize a
half-million-strong citizen militia to prevent a "coup" points to the
risks of greater violence. As Venezuela's neighbors and the world
punish its government for repression, Venezuela's opposition must come
up with a realistic platform for achieving political and economic
change.

For that to happen, Venezuela's often divided opposition needs to put
forward a compelling vision. Chavismo's still-considerable adherents
will have to be wooed, and the country re-united around shared
concerns, whether reviving the oil industry or fighting organized
crime. To truly succeed, protest marches have to lead someplace people
really want to go.

Conclusions

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"The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street"
Law & Politics


In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in
other words a producer of speed.’’

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.@JulianAssange How Brazilians now see @realDonaldTrump
Law & Politics


Another sterling job from those who brought us Iraq, al-Qaeda, Libya,
Syria, ISIS, Iran & Pinochet

Conclusions


The Irony, the Irony.

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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics


I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.

From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant
state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of
Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out
and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable
and noteworthy.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0908
Dollar Index 98.93
Japan Yen 111.26
Swiss Franc 0.9939
Pound 1.2898
Aussie 0.7487
India Rupee 64.15
South Korea Won 1129.75
Brazil Real 3.1725
Egypt Pound 18.1013
South Africa Rand 13.20

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@StanChart Plc's return to its roots as a trade bank is bearing fruit
International Trade


The bank’s shares jumped as much as 5 percent.

Chief Executive Officer Bill Winters is attempting to simplify the
bank after an explosion of emerging-market lending led to billions of
dollars of writedowns and the first annual loss in decades in 2015.
Winters has said a recovery in revenue is needed for the bank to reach
its profit goals and restore the dividend.

“The first quarter’s results show the group is on track with its
recovery,” Raul Sinha, a bank analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in
a note to clients. “The trends in transaction banking revenues and
wealth management are encouraging.”

Transaction banking revenue climbed 10 percent to $785 million amid
increased Asian trade volumes and rising global interest rates. The
unit -- which includes the lender’s trade finance, cash management and
custody businesses -- accounts for about a fifth of Standard
Chartered’s revenue. Analysts at UBS Group AG estimated the unit’s
revenue would climb 5 percent, while Sanford C. Bernstein’s Chirantan
Barua predicted an 11 percent jump.

Underlying pretax profit for the first quarter almost doubled to $1.05
billion, the lender said in a statement Wednesday. That beat the $850
million average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Revenue climbed to $3.61 billion, missing the analysts’ $3.64 billion
average estimate. The lender reported an 8 percent jump in income from
its China region.

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Saudi Forces Foil Attempted Attack on Aramco Oil Product Centre
Commodities


Saudi Arabia’s security forces foiled an attempt to blow up an oil
product distribution center in Jazan, a province bordering Yemen in
the kingdom’s southwest, according to the state-run news agency.

A remote-controlled boat laden with explosives was spotted leaving a
small island in Yemeni waters and later intercepted, the Saudi Press
Agency said, citing an unidentified spokesman for the Ministry of
Interior. Saudi security forces said they would stop any attacks by
Houthi rebels, who are threatening shipping routes in the Red Sea with
explosive-laden boats and mines.

read more






U.S. slams South Sudan's Kiir over 'man-made' famine, urges truce
Africa


The United States slammed South Sudan's President Salva Kiir on
Tuesday for the African state's "man-made" famine and ongoing
conflict, urging him to fulfill a month-old pledge of a unilateral
truce by ordering his troops back to their barracks.

"We must see a sign that progress is possible," U.S. Ambassador to the
United Nations Nikki Haley told a United Nations Security Council
briefing on South Sudan. "We must see that ceasefire implemented."

"The famine in South Sudan is man made. It is the result of ongoing
conflict in that country. It is the result of an apparent campaign
against the civilian population. It is the result of killing
humanitarian workers," Haley said.

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10-APR-2017 :: I remember the cries of "South Sudan Oyee!" as Juba got its independence
Africa


I remember the cries of ‘’South Sudan Oyee!’’ as Juba got its
independence. There was so much momentum, but look at what has
happened. Everything became binary [Dinka versus Nuer] and the economy
has crashed and burned. The River Nile flows through Juba, it could
have been the ‘’bread-basket’’ of East Africa, but today a biblical
famine stalks the land. Why? Politics.

read more


Burundi Unrest Leaves 720 People Dead in Two Years, Group Says
Africa


Burundi’s political crisis, which has left at least 720 people dead
over the past two years, is easing with the number of arrests
declining, according to the country’s state-run human-rights agency.

While as many as 60 people were being detained daily at the height of
the crisis in 2015, the number has dropped to between 10 to 15, Jean
Baptiste Baribonekeza, president of the Independent National
Commission for Human Rights, told reporters Wednesday in the capital,
Bujumbura.

“The situation is that tension is coming down slowly,” Baribonekeza said.

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Ivory Coast Said to Plan $1 Billion Eurobond by End of July Bloomberg [They need the moolah!]
Africa


Ivory Coast plans to sell at least $1 billion in Eurobonds by the end
of July to raise funds for infrastructure projects, the country’s
first issuance of international debt since 2015, according to two
people with knowledge of the plans.

The government is negotiating to sell bonds with 10-year maturity and
the sale will probably happen in June or July, according to the
people, who asked not to be identified because a public announcement
hasn’t been made.

The West African nation is yet to decide which banks will be hired as
financial advisers and a roadshow will be held in London and the U.S.,
according to the people. Ivory Coast sold $1 billion of debt in 2015
and $750 million in 2014.

Government spokesman Bruno Kone said by phone that Ivory Coast plans
to sell Eurobonds this year but that he couldn’t confirm the details.
The bond sale “is in our interest given the economic climate,” he
said, without elaborating further.

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara was forced to reduce this
year’s budget after a slump in prices for the nation’s biggest cash
crop, cocoa. While lower cocoa prices are weighing on income, expenses
have soared as the government has tried to defuse social unrest by
agreeing to pay bonuses and arrears to soldiers and civil servants
earlier this year.

"I’m sure there’s concern about the military and cocoa prices," said
Kevin Daly, a London-based money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management
Plc who helps oversee $11 billion in assets. "But I think they’ll
still find a receptive audience if they provide some premium over the
existing curve. Somewhere in the region of 50 basis points should
suffice."

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Ghana's Economy Expands at Slowest Pace in 26 Years in 2016
Africa


Ghana’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in 26 years in 2016 as a
shutdown at oil and gas fields weighed on output.

The growth of gross domestic product in West Africa’s second-largest
economy slowed to 3.5 percent last year, from 3.9 percent in 2015,
Baah Wadieh, acting government statistician at the Ghana Statistical
Service, told reporters Wednesday in the capital, Accra. That is the
lowest rate since 1990, according to data from the International
Monetary Fund, and below a government forecast of 3.6 percent.

The oil and gas sector contracted 16.9 percent in 2016, agriculture
expanded by 3 percent and manufacturing grew 2.7 percent, Wadieh said.
GDP expanded 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the last
three months of 2015, according to the statistics office.

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TPS @SerenaHotels reports FY 16 PBT +254.2% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           23.50
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        4,281,091,538
EPS:             0.54
PE:               43.51

TPS manages 15 hotels and resorts across East Africa under the Serena
brand name.

FY 2016 Earnings through 31st Dec 2016 versus through Dec 2015
FY Revenues 6.468803b versus 6.189360b +4.514%
FY Earnings before exchange loss, interest depreciation and Taxation
983.64m versus 551.492m +78.35%
Net Interest Expense [172.669m] versus [224.232m]
FY PBT 325.301m versus [210.976m] +254.2%
FY PAT 129.328m versus [280.571m]
FY EPS 0.54 versus [1.63]
FY Dividend 35cents a share

Company Commentary


Tourism sector in East Africa witnessed a slow but positive turnaround
during the second half of 2016
traditional and new international source markets performed slightly
better than year 2015
increased activity within the EA corporate sector and domestic leisure
market segment
experiencing a ''margin squeeze'' resulting from overdevelopment
around TPS's units

Conclusions


Rebounding with further to go. I expect the rebound to gather strength
but the Election is a possible curve ball in FY 17
This is the most optimistic they have been in their commentary for eternity.
I think its a Buy at 23.50

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.265
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.16% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.75% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,162.37 +24.96 +0.80%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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