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Wednesday 04th of October 2017
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Feb 2012 @FairmontMtKenya Mount Kenya Safari Club in Nanyuki (founded 1959) became a mecca for the international jet set
Africa


We were not going as far as that; only two days’ journey in the
ox-cart to a bit of El Dorado my father had been fortunate enough to
buy in the bar of the Norfolk Hotel from a man wearing an Old Etonian
tie,” so says Elspeth Huxley’s The Flame Trees of Thika which is a
beautiful and lyrical book.

“this was a moment of magic revealing to us all, for a few moments, a
hidden world of grace and wonder beyond the one of which our eyes told
us, a world that no words could delineate, as insubstanttial as a
cloud, as iridescent as a dragon-fly and as innocent as the heart of a
rose.” ― Elspeth Huxley, The Flame Trees of Thika:

“...when the present stung her, she sought her antidote in the future,
which was as sure to hold achievement as the dying flower to hold the
fruit when its petals wither.” ― Elspeth Huxley, The Flame Trees of
Thika: Memories of an African Childhood

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King Felipe lays down the law in speech to Catalonia
Law & Politics


Catalan leaders have shown "unacceptable disloyalty," King Felipe says

“They have shown an unacceptable disloyalty toward the power of the
state,” Felipe said. “Today Catalan society is fractured, set against
itself.”

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is fighting to maintain control after 2.3
million Catalans defied both the central government and the
Constitutional Court to cast ballots in a makeshift referendum on
independence. Regional police ignored orders to shut down the vote on
Sunday. For Felipe, the crisis may be a defining moment of his
three-year reign, like the attempted coup which sought to topple his
father’s nascent democracy in 1981.

“Certain officials in Catalonia have repeatedly, consciously and
purposefully breached the constitution,” Felipe said, speaking from a
desk with a laptop to his side and the Spanish and European Union
flags behind him.

Conclusions

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02-OCT-2017 :: Living in a Populist World
Law & Politics


''Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds'' is an
early study of crowd psychology by Charles Mackay, first published in
1841.

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they
go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one
by one."

President Putin is of course the arch Populist but Erdogan, Duterte,
Narendra Modi are all Mini-Mes to Vladimir. Populist Policy-Making
reminded me of a Passage from T.S Eliot's The Hollow Men

Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow

The Shadow to which T.S Eliot is referring is this; President Trump's
Tax Cut is presented as good for the average American Tax Payer but it
patently is skewed in favour of the 1%. Narendra Modi's attempt to
cleanse the black-market Economy via the extinguishing of Bank Notes
was an abject failure. Duterte's ''red in tooth and claw''
assassination program against Drug Dealing has trampled over any human
rights. The King of Saudi Arabia has generously allowed Women to drive
themselves around from 2018. 2018 just let that sink in.

President Trump in his mind-boggling speech said this of Venezuela

''The problem in Venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly
implemented, but that socialism has been faithfully implemented''
Change the Word ''socialism'' for ''Populism'' and in fact Caracas is
the Harbinger of the direction in which the World is headed.

I will leave the last words to Charles Mackay

"Of all the offspring of Time, Error is the most ancient, and is so
old and familiar an acquaintance, that Truth, when discovered, comes
upon most of us like an intruder, and meets the intruder's welcome."

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1759
Dollar Index 93.49
Japan Yen 122.55
Swiss Franc 0.9739
Pound 1.3252
Aussie 0.7850
India Rupee 65.335
South Korea Won 1140.32
Brazil Real 3.1426
Egypt Pound 17.6470
South Africa Rand 13.6011

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Fight to stay in power threatens Museveni's legacy FT
Africa


Shortly after Yoweri Museveni took power in Uganda in 1986, he
published a book titled What is Africa’s Problem? His conclusion was
simple.

“The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the
people but leaders who want to overstay in power.”

Thirty-one years later, the president’s words are returning to haunt
him. As fist fights erupted between MPs, Uganda’s parliament last week
began the process to remove the presidential age limit — the last
constitutional restriction preventing the 73-year-old former rebel
remaining in power for life.

The move threatens the legacy of Africa’s fourth-longest-serving ruler
who was once feted by the west, but whose reputation has been
tarnished by a stumbling economy and the suppression of critics and
opponents.

Mr Museveni has remained silent on the debate to remove the ban on
anyone older than 75 running for the presidency. But his supporters
hail it as the only way to maintain stability and accelerate
development in the east African nation.

“Everyone loves President Museveni,” says Evelyn Anite, the investment
and privatisation minister. “He’s the one person who has united this
country. I cannot anticipate better peace and security than what the
country is enjoying right now.”

“Once [the ban] is removed then he becomes a Robert Mugabe and that
will spell doom,” says Erias Lukwago, the opposition lord mayor of
Kampala, the capital, referring to Zimbabwe’s autocratic 93-year-old
leader who has been in power for four decades. “It will be a recipe
for disaster and that’s what we want to avert.”

Like many African rulers, Mr Museveni’s tenure began well. The size of
the economy more than doubled from 1992 to 1999 in current US dollar
terms while the national poverty rate fell from 56.4 per cent to 33.8
per cent in the same period, according to the World Bank.

But as Mr Museveni tightened his grip on power — a two-term
presidential limit was scrapped in 2005 — Uganda’s economy began to
stumble.

Gross national income per capita only rose from $630 to $660 between
2011 and 2016, while the poverty level increased from 20 per cent in
2013-14 to 27 per cent in 2016-17, according to the national
statistics bureau.

Kampala-based diplomats attribute the stagnation to poor economic
policies, annual population growth of some 3.2 per cent and an
emasculation of institutions as Mr Museveni has concentrated power in
the presidency.

Nic Cheeseman, an Africa expert at Birmingham University, says Mr
Museveni’s control is tight enough for him to stay in power for as
long as he wants. “I don’t think we’re going to get rid of Museveni
until he dies,” he says.

He agrees that Mr Museveni is mirroring the “Mugabe route of being
more repressive and no new development happening”. “In five to 10
years he’s going to get ill and old,” says Mr Cheeseman. “The country
will be miserable and we’ll all be waiting for him to die.”

The greatest fear people have is because he doesn’t want to leave
there won’t be a peaceful transition

MPs are expected to amend the constitution to remove the age limit
through a private members bill in the next few weeks. The assembly is
dominated by Mr Museveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), which
can secure the two-thirds majority required to make the changes.

The debate comes as Mr Museveni is entrenching power in his family.
The president’s wife, Janet, his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, his
stepbrother, Salim Saleh, and Mr Kainerugaba’s father-in-law, Sam
Kutesa, all hold prominent positions in government.

Meanwhile, laws such as the non-governmental organisations act, the
public order management act, the antiterrorism act and amendments to
the penal code are being increasingly used to stifle dissent and rein
in opponents.

“The greatest fear people have is because he doesn’t want to leave
there won’t be a peaceful transition,” says Monicah Amoding, an NRM
MP, referring to the fact that Uganda has not had a peaceful handover
of power since independence in 1962.

“We don’t want him to destroy himself, his legacy and the country as a
result. We fear for our country and our future,” she adds. “What we
have been able to achieve over his time may be destroyed and go down
the drain.”

Civil society is also mobilising against the move, says Arthur Larok,
the country director of ActionAid Uganda.

“We have a regime that’s using sheer violence only to be in power,” he
says. His office was one of two non-governmental organisations raided
two weeks ago in a crackdown on groups campaigning against the
age-limit amendment.

“Citizens are beginning to make a connection between their
dissatisfaction and the leadership in this country. If you go to any
village, you might not find people interested in the specifics of the
age-limit debate but the bigger issues are being discussed in a way
they never have been.”

In spite of the disgruntlement, Mr Larok believes Mr Museveni’s
attempt to stay in power will succeed. “The majority of MPs are going
to respond to financial incentives,” he says. “But we have to keep
resisting.”

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Why Uganda's politics are failing its people @TheEconomist
Africa


A militarised police force, weak opposition and power-hungry president
are no laughing matter

THE BRAWL that convulsed Uganda’s parliament on September 27th was
widely considered the worst parliamentary scrap in the country’s
history. Lawmakers threw punches, hurled chairs and brandished
microphone stands as weapons. The images were replayed around the
world, including on “The Daily Show”, an American comedy programme.
“We can go into the reasons they’re fighting,” said the host, Trevor
Noah, chuckling at the chaos, “but the truth is you don’t really
care.” And yet the reasons are important. Last week’s mêlée was
neither a comic interlude, nor an accidental flare-up. Instead, it
occurred during a raid on parliament by state security forces, itself
a symptom of Uganda’s broken politics. What has gone wrong?

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.86% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.5957

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.647

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +31.37% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +36.12% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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@MoodysInvSvc puts Kenya rating on review for downgrade over rising debt @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


The agency said it had placed Kenya’s B1 rating on review for
downgrade due to persistent deficits as high borrowing costs continue
to drive government indebtedness higher, among other factors. Moody’s
expects that Kenya’s government debt burden, which has risen to 56.4
per cent of GDP as of June — up from 40.5 per cent five years ago —
will continue to rise due to persistently high primary deficits and
borrowing costs.

“Pressure on the government’s primary balance, which posted a deficit
of 5.3 per cent of GDP in the latest fiscal year ending June 2017,
comes from elevated development spending and weak revenue performance.

Unless a decisive policy response is introduced, the upward trajectory
in government debt will see debt-to-GDP surpass the 60 per cent mark
by June 2018,” the agency said in a statement.

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@Safaricomltd share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           25.00
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,001,635,700,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 20.661

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +21.56% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +17.14% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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