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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 09th of October 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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The Physics of Luck Tina Seelig

After years of observing and studying what makes people successful, it
is clear that good luck results from a definable list of tiny choices
— micro-behaviors — that allow you to squeeze just a little more juice
out of every day, ultimately amplifying your long-term chances of
Unfortunately, we usually look at others who have achieved remarkable
things and point to a few visible moments that unlocked opportunities
for them, and we look at our own life as a series of lucky and/or
unlucky breaks, such as meeting an influential person, stumbling upon
an interesting job, having an accident, or getting fired.
Consider this example from Michael Lewis, the author of many very
successful books, including Liar’s Poker and Money Ball. During his
commencement address at Princeton, he traced much of his success to
“One night I was invited to a dinner where I sat next to the wife of a
big shot of a big Wall Street investment bank, Salomon Brothers. She
more or less forced her husband to give me a job. I knew next to
nothing about Salomon Brothers. But Salomon Brothers happened to be
where Wall Street was being reinvented — into the Wall Street we’ve
come to know and love today. When I got there I was assigned, almost
arbitrarily, to the very best job in the place to observe the growing
madness: They turned me into the house derivatives expert.”
He used this experience to inspire and inform his 1989 bestseller
Liar’s Poker. He went on in his talk to attribute that success to
The same is true with luck and our behavior — Luck captures the things
that happen to us, and our behavior encapsulates the things over which
we have control. You can debate which comes first, but in the end,
they are inexorably connected.
We are locked in a continuous dance with the world where we trade off
who is leading and who is following.
Once the dance begins, we have immense control over our luck because
it is a direct result of our behavior. You certainly can’t control
everything that happens to you, but you do control your responses.
There are ways to move into the upper right quadrant. This involves
learning the “physics of luck,” knowing how to effectively turn your
potential energy into kinetic energy, how to use magnetism to attract
others’ help, how to change the optics of a poor situation into a
windfall, how to leverage your resources, and build momentum in your

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Takaungu Creek. Amazing waters for a swim Kenya Pics

Takaungu is a small rural village located on the Kenyan Coast between
Mombasa and Malindi, in Kilifi County. It is 10 kilometres south of
the Kilifi town, in the Kikambala division. The town has population of
1500 [1] . Fishing and a local coral quarry are the predominate
industries. The population consists of Swahili Muslims, mostly living
in or near the town center and a sizable Christian community in the
shambas or countryside that surrounds it.

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Who said it? Kim Jong-Un or Donald Trump. A disconcertingly difficult quiz QUARTZ
Law & Politics

US president Donald Trump took his famously bombastic rhetoric to new
levels in his response to the discovery of yet another North Korean
military development.

Future threats by Pyongyang, he warned on Aug. 8, “will be met with
fire, fury, and, frankly, power the likes of which this world has
never seen before.” A spokesman for North Korea’s army retorted that
it was “carefully considering” a strike on the US territory of Guam.

The war of words has brought out at least one similarity between Trump
and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un: Their rhetorical styles are
eerily similar. Can you tell the difference between the two?

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18-SEP-2017 :: he is speaking the language his adversaries understand lucidly
Law & Politics

And front and centre in Kim’s mind must be the image of Saddam Hussein
being hung by his neck and of Muammar Gaddafi meeting his death after
having been sodomised with a bottle. When you view things from Kim the
rocket man’s perspective, you might appreciate that far from being
illogical, he is in fact being ruthlessly logical and he is speaking
the language his adversaries understand lucidly

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Rex Tillerson at the Breaking Point New Yorker
Law & Politics

One afternoon in late September, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
called a meeting of the six countries that came together in 2015 to
limit Iran’s nuclear-weapons program. They gathered on the main floor
of the United Nations headquarters, in Manhattan, in the
“consultations room,” a private chamber where diplomats can speak
confidentially before stepping onto the floor of the Security Council.
Tillerson, who was the head of ExxonMobil before becoming President
Trump’s top diplomat, had not previously met Iran’s foreign minister,
Javad Zarif, who negotiated the agreement with the Obama
Administration. Tillerson’s career had been spent making deals for
oil, and his views on such topics as Iran’s nuclear weapons were
little known. Even more obscure were his skills as a diplomat.

Sitting at a U-shaped table, Tillerson let the other
diplomats—representatives of Germany, France, Russia, China, the
United Kingdom, the European Union, and Iran—speak first. When Zarif’s
turn came, he read a list of complaints about the Trump Administration
and its European partners. The nuclear deal had called for the removal
of economic sanctions against Iranian banks, but, he said, the United
States had not yet lifted them. “We still cannot open a bank account
in the U.K.,” he said.

Gatherings of diplomats are usually dull affairs, with the
participants restricting themselves to bromides in order to avoid open
disagreements. Tillerson, peering down over his reading glasses, spoke
in a deep Texas drawl that evoked a frontier sheriff about to lose his
patience. “No one can credibly claim that Iran has positively
contributed to regional peace and security,” he said.

When I met Tillerson recently, in his seventh-floor office at the
State Department, he was wearing a dark-blue suit and a bright-red
tie, but he carried himself like a hard-charging Texas oilman.
Tillerson, who is sixty-five, was born in Wichita Falls, Texas, near
the Oklahoma border, and grew up in a lower-middle-class family that
roamed across the two states. He was named for two Hollywood actors
famous for playing cowboys: Rex Allen and John Wayne (his middle name
is Wayne). “I grew up pretty modest,” he told me. “My dad came back
from World War Two and drove a truck selling bread at grocery stores.
My mom had three kids—you know, the nineteen-fifties.”

Zarif began by telling Tillerson that, in reaching the nuclear deal,
Iran and the U.S. had agreed to set aside other points of contention.
In a professorial tone, he noted that for Iranians this meant
relinquishing a long list of historical grievances. “The U.S.A. is
used to punishing Iran, and Iran is used to resisting,” Zarif said. He
accused the Trump Administration of violating the terms of the nuclear
deal, by, among other things, holding up export licenses that Boeing
and Airbus required in order to do business in Iran. “We’re not going
to argue over this,” he snapped. “Had I wanted to look for excuses to
violate this agreement, we would have had plenty.”

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, objected. “This is not a
negotiation,” he said. Tillerson took the microphone and began again,
his voice unwavering. The real problem, he said, was that Iran had
been attacking Americans since 1979, when Iranian students seized the
U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held fifty-two diplomats for more than a
year. “The modern-day U.S.-Iran relationship is now almost forty years
old,” he went on, still looking at Zarif. “It was born out of a
revolution, with our Embassy under siege—and we were very badly
treated.” He enumerated Iranian-sponsored attacks in Lebanon in the
nineteen-eighties and in Iraq more recently, which together killed
hundreds of American citizens. “The relationship has been defined by
violence—against us,” he said.

His formative experience was in the Boy Scouts. When he was young, his
father took a job helping to set up local chapters, and Tillerson
eventually became an Eagle Scout, one of an élite class of
“servant-leaders” distinguished by obsessive, nerdish attainment.

The thing about Rex is, he’s got this big Texas aw-shucks thing going
on,” a Russia expert who knows Tillerson told me. “You think he’s not
the smartest guy in the room. He’s not the dominant male. But, after a
while, he owns all your assets.”

Last July, following Trump’s strangely political and inappropriate
speech at the annual Boy Scout Jamboree, Tillerson, according to NBC,
was so offended that he was going to resign, until Vice-President
Pence, Defense Secretary James Mattis, and the incoming chief of
staff, John Kelly, persuaded him to stay. That same month, Mattis
reportedly attended a meeting of national-security officials at which
Tillerson referred to Trump as a “fucking moron.”

An Exxon employee told me, “When he first became C.E.O., people could
still stop by his office—‘Hey, Rex, what about this?’ ” Over time,
Tillerson grew increasingly isolated, retreating to a cloistered area
that employees called the “God pod,” eating lunch in a private dining
room, and relying on a few handpicked executives. The employee
described Tillerson’s domineering style in briefings: “The management
committee would be the handful of guys who run the company with him.
But not one of them ever said a word or asked a question. Only
Tillerson. The implication was ‘This is my show.’ ”

They publicly warned the Russian government against violating their
contract. “Exxon, because they’re so big, they have this swagger,” a
second former senior American diplomat who worked in Russia recalled.
“They told the Russians, Fuck you. And the Russians backed off.”

Nikki’s getting it done,” the official told me. “She’s bringing home
the bacon.” This has apparently fed an enmity between Tillerson and
Haley. “Rex hates her,” the official said. “He fucking hates her.”

The only people left around the President are generals and Boy Scouts.
They’re doing it out of a sense of duty.”

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12 JAN 15 :: Amedy Coulibaly and his cross-bow toting partner Hayat Boumeddiene
Law & Politics

The arrival of the asymmetric threat on the streets of Paris was
deeply unsettling and will surely keep Europe off-balance and presages
a ‘new normal’.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1728
Dollar Index 93.81
Japan Yen 112.66
Swiss Franc 0.9785
Pound 1.3114
Aussie 0.7760
India Rupee 65.315
South Korea Won 1143.51
Brazil Real 3.1558
Egypt Pound 17.6128
South Africa Rand 13.7257

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Turkish lira plunges @business
Emerging Markets

Traders scrambled Monday morning as Turkey’s lira plunged, turning off
live platform pricing and restricting quotes amid volatility caused by
rising tensions between the U.S. and its NATO ally.

As politics pushed the lira to a record low against a basket of
currencies including the euro and the dollar, requests for quotes on
“show side only” basis were flashing, according to traders familiar
with the transaction who asked not to be identified because they
aren’t authorized to speak publicly.

The currency market has faced bouts of extreme volatility during early
Asian trading hours, including the pound’s flash crash a year ago as
well as the South African rand’s plunge in January 2016. While the
lira is a volatile developing-nation currency with thinner trading,
Monday’s decline is a reminder of the underlying fragility of the $5.1
trillion-a-day foreign exchange market.

“Almost certainly the liquidity is a significant issue in the price
action,” said Andrew Bresler, deputy head of sales trading for Asia
Pacific at Saxo Capital Markets Ltd. in Singapore. “This is always the
problem with negative news events in early Asia trading timezone.
Fewer market participants will exacerbate the move.”

The trigger on Monday was the U.S. and Turkey each suspending visa
services for citizens looking to visit the other country. Both sides
said “recent events” had forced them to “reassess the commitment” of
the other to the security of mission facilities and personnel. The
moves followed the arrest of a Turkish national who works at the U.S.
consulate in Istanbul for alleged involvement in the July 2016 coup
attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Frontier Markets

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Kabila sits tight as Congo crumbles IRIN

After 16 years at the helm, Kabila was supposed to hold elections and
leave office last year when his second and – under the constitution –
final term expired. Instead, he stayed put.

On 31 December, with the country on a knife-edge, an agreement was
struck between the government and an opposition coalition known as the
Rassemblement. It said elections would be held by the end of 2017 and
that Kabila would not stand for a third term.

But with three months until the accord expires, a date for elections
is yet to be set and Kabila remains in power, hunkered down in his
presidential mansion above the Congo River, as the country – wracked
by civil wars in the 90s and early 2000s – crumbles around him.

“The Congolese are living like animals in our own country,” said
34-year-old motorbike taxi driver Freddy Mulume, during a recent
general strike called by opposition parties. “We are suffering so

Many also wonder if the opposition is really an alternative to the
current regime, Berwouts added. “In Kinshasa, people often say it is
not enough to change the driver, they want to change the car.”

“The main candidate for [sponsoring an armed group] would be Angola,”
Wolters said. “They are the real king-maker, and they are not happy.”

Kabila will also have to contend with his own presidential majority,
which is far from united, and a poorly trained, badly paid army
composed of former rebel groups, some of which have defected in the
past. “Soldiers at the grassroots level are very unhappy and aren’t
paid most of the time,” said Berwouts. “Kabila cannot count on their

For Berwouts, the most likely scenario is an Arab Spring-style popular
uprising triggered by a combination of political and economic
grievances. “The government considers its main danger to be the
poverty of the people,” he said.

At a busy roundabout in Kinshasa’s Kalamu commune, that was certainly
the view of 45-year-old Peter. He rents out a photocopier for a few
cents a go but not enough to feed his family or pay his bills.

“With Kabila we get nothing,” he said, raising both fists into the
air. “If elections don’t happen, we must get them by force.”

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What's Next For Angola With A New President NPR RADIO

PERALTA: For Rafael Savimbi, a UNITA MP and the son of Angola's
historic opposition leader, Angola's future still depends on the
country's old president. Jose Eduardo dos Santos stepped down after 38
years as president, but he remains the leader of the ruling party. And
the dos Santos family still holds unparalleled power. His son is the
chair of the country's sovereign wealth fund, and his daughter heads
the state oil company which is the source of most of Angola's revenue.
Meanwhile, dos Santos remains president emeritus - immune from any
prosecution. And right before he stepped down, he appointed loyalists
to the security services. Savimbi sees a small silver lining. Angolans
voted overwhelmingly for change, and the country's new president knows

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In Mugabe's Zimbabwe, hard currency just got a whole lot harder Reuters

HARARE (Reuters) - After defying economic gravity for a year,
Zimbabwe’s homemade U.S. dollars have fallen to earth with a bump.

Rumors the central bank was buying up black market U.S. dollars last
month with one of its own versions of the currency created panic in a
country scarred by the hyperinflationary spiral of 2008 that wiped out
people’s savings.

The worthless Zimbabwe dollar was replaced by the U.S. dollar in 2009
but the economy has struggled over the last 18 months because of a
massive domestic shortage of greenbacks.

As a result, cash, especially crisp, new, $100 bills, has enjoyed a
steady 10 percent to 20 percent premium over dollars stored
electronically in bank accounts - nicknamed “zollars”.

(For graphic on implied rate of Zimbabwe's electronic dollars click: here )

But two weeks ago, the rumors that even the central bank had run out
of hard currency sent the premium soaring to nearly 50 percent,
according to black market traders and unofficial measures of the
zollar value.

“I am really scared that I will wake up one day and find my money in
the bank is worthless,” said Jethro Nkosi, a computer technician at a
hotel in the capital Harare.

The central bank has not published currency reserves since
dollarisation and Zimbabweans worry it is creating zollars without the
backing of sufficient reserves or gold, leaving the system vulnerable
to a crisis of confidence.

Another currency implosion would also be a major headache for
93-year-old President Robert Mugabe as he seeks to extend his 37 years
in power in an election in less than a year.

On Friday, buying $100 in cash via a bank transfer cost 145 electronic
zollars, a marginal improvement on 160 last week. But on Sept. 23,
when rumors of the central bank buying black market dollars swept
Harare, the rate spiked to 185.

The price of everyday goods has also leapt as importers of food to
fuel to medicine are forced to turn to an increasingly unfavorable and
risky black market to pay for their wares.

In just one week, the cost of cooking oil, cereal and butter imported
from South Africa leapt by as much as 30 percent.


One Harare banking source said the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s (RBZ)
Fidelity Printers and Refiners division sparked the panic two weeks
ago by offloading a large quantity of dollar “bond notes” to buy gold
from small-scale mining firms.

When the newly minted notes, nicknamed “bollars”, hit the streets,
currency dealers assumed the central bank was mopping up greenbacks
from the black market, sending the value of real dollars soaring.

People queue to withdraw US dollars from a money transfer shop in
Harare, Zimbabwe, October 3, 2017. Picture taken October 3, 2017.
REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo
Bond notes are the third form of dollars used in Zimbabwe, besides
cash and zollars. Like their electronic counterparts, the
quasi-currency notes are meant to be equivalent to dollars issued by
the U.S. Federal Reserve but they are now worth less.

The notes, backed by an opaque $200 million loan facility from the
Cairo-based Afreximbank, were first introduced in November. This week
they were trading at 1.3 to the dollar after weakening to as much as
1.5 in late September.

The banking source said RBZ’s Fidelity, Zimbabwe’s sole gold trader,
was paying mining firms for gold 60:40 in dollars and bond notes,
compared with only dollars a month ago - and that had fueled
suspicions the RBZ was running out of hard currency.

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor John Mangudya denied Zimbabwe was
locked in another currency crisis. He told Reuters the bank was
spending $1 million in bond notes a week to buy gold but said that
should not affect currency market values.

“In an economy with $180 million of bond notes, I am not very sure
whether that amount could have been responsible for a few days’ change
in economic fundamentals of premiums in the parallel markets,” he told

However, the situation is febrile and fluid.

To try to prevent a run on the domestic banking system, the government
has tried to kill the black market with decrees giving the police more
powers and stating that illegal currency traders face up to 10 years
in prison.

Despite the warnings, illegal currency dealers continue to trade on
Harare’s streets, albeit more discretely than usual because of
plain-clothes police lurking in the shadows.

“This is the only way I can look after my family. But it will now be
difficult to trade openly like we used to do,” said currency trader
Theresa Chirwa, glancing over her shoulder as she shoved a wad of bond
notes and dollars into her satchel.

Assessing the true value of zollars is difficult but economists have
revived a gauge used during the hyperinflation era - the Old Mutual
Implied Rate - which compares share prices of the Old Mutual insurance
firm traded in Harare and London.

As the central bank rumors swirled last month, the premium for Harare
shares over their London counterparts surged, meaning Zimbabweans need
far more of their electronic dollars to buy the shares than someone in
London using ordinary U.S. dollars.

Besides trying to get their hands on hard cash, Zimbabweans are also
converting zollars into tangible assets such as cars or property, or
piling into the stock market in the hope shares will hold value even
if their bank balances are obliterated.

As a result, Zimbabwe's main stock index, the ZSE Industrial .INDZI,
has surged 77 percent in the last month to a record high of 433 this
week. The index has tripled so far this year.

“I‘m investing in equity funds - hopefully that should give me some
value for my money,” said Nkosi, the computer technician. “We don’t
know what tomorrow holds.”


read more

Tanzania's Magufuli shuffles cabinet, splitting energy and mining

Tanzania President John Magufuli split the Ministry of Energy and
Mining into two agencies Saturday as part of a shuffle that expanded
the cabinet to 21 ministers from 19, according to an emailed statement
from his office.

Medard Kalemani was to head the Ministry of Energy minister, promoted
from deputy in the energy and minerals agency. Angellah Kairuki, a
lawyer, was named to head the new Ministry of Mining. She had been at
the Ministry of State for Public Service Management and Good

Magufuli is overhauling the mining industry in sub-Saharan Africa’s
sixth-biggest economy, with a target to double its contribution to
gross domestic product to 10 percent by 2025. In March, he banned
mineral exports and ordered an audit that found London-based Acacia
Mining Plc understated the taxes it owes Tanzania, a finding the
company disputes.

Petra Diamonds Ltd. halted production at its mine in Tanzania in
September after the government seized a shipment of diamonds suspected
of being undervalued. The company has resumed operations and won
authorization to export its diamonds late last month. The government
in July approved laws that would enable the state to renegotiate
contracts with mining and energy companies.

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Nasa's moves raise questions on fate of October 26 poll
Kenyan Economy

The last minute cancellation of two scheduled rallies at the Coast
this weekend has cast doubts over Nasa’s participation in the October
26 repeat presidential election.

That the opposition could be dead serious on its resolve not to
participate in the election unless its “irreducible minimum” demands
are met was intensified by revelations that the Nasa presidential
candidate Raila Odinga was planning a trip to the UK this week at a
time when his rival, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy, William
Ruto, have intensified their campaigns with less than three weeks to
the election.

To compound matters, the Nation was reliably informed the opposition
was yet to submit its list of agents for the repeat election.

Mr Odinga’s spokesman Dennis Onyango confirmed the opposition chief
would visit the UK this coming week. “He is travelling to the UK,” Mr
Onyango said in a short text message.

The Nasa brigade had been scheduled to hold a meet-the-people-tour
before addressing a rally in Mombasa town on Saturday.

They would then have proceeded to Kwale county on Sunday for a rally
at Ukunda in the afternoon.

The Nation learnt part of the reason the rallies were called off was
because Mombasa Governor Ali Joho is out of the country.

Highly placed sources within Nasa told the Nation the opposition
coalition was mulling over various options should the Independent
Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) fail to meet their
“irreducible minimum” conditions. A team headed by Siaya Senator and
Mr Odinga’s lead counsel during the presidential election petition
James Orengo has been tasked with exploring the various options and
their legal and political implications.

A source who attended a Nasa meeting on Thursday at Okoa Kenya said
they agreed on a team of experts to study the full impact of skipping
the poll.

It is a case of horse-trading. When push comes to shove, Mr Kenyatta
is said to be willing to drop the amendments on condition Mr Odinga,
too, ends his demand to send some senior IEBC officials packing as
well as call off the countrywide protests, his only available tool of
bargain given he does not have the numbers in a Parliament that is
dominated by Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee party.  The country seems headed
for a serious crisis as uncertainty grows over whether the repeat
election will go on as planned.

Mr Odinga holds that going to the poll with the IEBC as constituted is
akin to walking oneself to a slaughterhouse. He believes the
commission is thoroughly infiltrated by Mr Kenyatta’s people, in the
process skewing it in his favour.

“One way forward might be for both camps to embed an agreed number of
party representatives in the IEBC to observe every stage of
preparations,” Crisis Group’s report says.


read more

09-OCT-2017 :: Politics Landing Blows on Economy @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy

You will recall that at the end of last month and coincident with the
Supreme Court decision, The Nairobi Securities Exchange had to
introduce circuit breakers after a precipitous 10% slide and on that
day the Nairobi All Share closed -3.69%. That Day we all got a chance
to take a look at what a ''cliff edge'' looks like and ''cliff edge
effects'' Since then the Equity markets has been on the slide and
Eurobond yields have ratcheted higher. The miraculous Shilling has
been the best behaved. The Shilling's resilience speaks to the
gilt-edged credibility that the Central Bank has achieved with Market
Participants. The Central Bank's FX operations are spectacularly
effective. However, what is clear is that Financial Indicators are
blinking amber. The Real Economy has been in the slow lane and there
is ample evidence of unexploded ordnance all over the place. The
Drought, the credit squeeze softened up the Economy but it is our
Politics which owns the ring now and has the potential to land a
Knock-out Blow a La the blow Mike Tyson landed on Trevor Berbick's
chin all those years ago.

On Friday @DaMina_Advisors' October 5th Report landed in my Inbox and I quote

''With effectively ‘no-adults-in-charge’ Kenya country is spinning
into a constitutional cul-de-sac......Without an election within the
constitutionally mandated 60-day window, Kenya will enter unmarked
treacherous constitutional political terrain.... President Uhuru
Kenyatta is determined to stay in office, whether an election happens
or not on October 26. Meanwhile the increasingly belligerent and
desperate opposition remains unwilling to recognize the legitimacy of
any government beyond October 26, and promises bloody mass action in
the streets to forcibly eject Kenyatta from power. The country’s
highest court, after delivering a historic verdict in late August to
annul the last presidential poll due to irregularities, has since
disappeared from the political arena''

Its clear now that the Opposition is taking an asymmetric approach.

Paul Virilio in his book – Speed and Politics. says “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in
other words a producer of speed.’’

What does it cost to put 500 People on the streets? I venture $10.00 a
head max. $5,000.00 versus an economic deterioration of at least 100x
is an outstanding example of the efficacy of this asymmetric strategy.
Go and compare the Street Protests in Togo and you will note our
Street Protests belong in the Theatre. The Opposition has resolved not
to participate in the election unless its “irreducible minimum”
demands are met. Two scheduled rallies at the Coast this weekend were
cancelled because the Mombasa Governor Ali Joho is out of the country
[probably could not get out fast enough].

What is clear is that the advantage of incumbency in fact accelerates
in this Round 2 of the Election. Therefore, I expect the Opposition to
boycott the Election entirely. And that the strategy of tension will
be maintained via degrading and denigrating the entire process. Market
Participants need to model this scenario because this is the direction
of travel.

''Essentially Kenya faces a very uncertain 21 days'' @DaMina_Advisors.

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''With effectively 'no-adults-in-charge' Kenya country is spinning into a constitutional cul-de-sac'' @DaMina_Advisors October 5th Report
Kenyan Economy

Kenya, one of Africa’s leading economies and a bulwark of stability in
East Africa is spiraling downwards into a major constitutional crisis
that threatens the stability of the nation. A Supreme Court mandated
presidential poll re-run, set by the country’s electoral commission
for October 26 is unlikely to hold due a wide array of logistical,
financial personnel, and political challenges. The country is spinning
into a constitutional cul-de-sac, with many of its key political
institutions unraveling. Without an election within the
constitutionally mandated 60-day window, Kenya will enter unmarked
treacherous constitutional political terrain.

Embattled President Uhuru Kenyatta is determined to stay in office,
whether an election happens or not on October 26. Meanwhile the
increasingly belligerent and desperate opposition remains unwilling to
recognize the legitimacy of any government beyond October 26, and
promises bloody mass action in the streets to forcibly eject Kenyatta
from power. The country’s highest court, after delivering a historic
verdict in late August to annul the last presidential poll due to
irregularities, has since disappeared from the political arena,
fighting for its own life amidst threats of assault and violence on
its judges. International observers, with their credibility lost,
after rushing to endorse the previously rejected poll results have
also fled the country. Essentially Kenya faces a very uncertain 21

With effectively ‘no-adults-in-charge’ Kenya, once the bastion of
stability in East Africa, is hurtling towards an uncertain future that
could trigger the first military coup in the country’s long history.
Kenya’s professional apolitical military has increasingly become
internally polarized along ethnic lines, in line with the country’s
political decline. And if after October 26 the country descends into
chaos, it would not be impossible to imagine the military being
tempted to take over.

If however over the next 21 days, Kenya’s Supreme Court and
Parliament, (still largely respected by a strong majority of the
electorate), moves ahead of the crisis to signal a road- map, in case
the October 26 poll cannot hold, the country may very well pull back
from the brink. However if the courts remain silent, and the
parliament continues its gimmicks, many foreign investors in Kenya may
yet have to re-classify the country in the lower, rather than upper
tier of unstable frontier markets economies.

read more

@Deacons_EA share price data here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:
Closing Price:           4.05
Total Shares Issued:          123558228.00
Market Capitalization:        500,410,823
EPS:             -2.24
PE:                 -1.808

Deacons (East Africa) PLC H1 2017 results through 30th June 2017 vs.
30th June 2016
H1 Revenue 1.077695b vs. 1.026090b +5.029%
H1 Net operating profit 333.572m vs. 491.342m -32.110%
H1 Expenses [523.969m] vs. [466.396m] +12.344%
H1 EBITDA [190.397m] vs. 24.946m -863.237%
H1 Depreciation [48.172m] vs. [50.844m] -5.255%
H1 Finance costs [36.627m] vs. [46.848m] -21.817%
H1 Net foreign exchange [Loss]/ gain 17.450m vs. 2.578m +576.881%
H1 Profit from continuing operations [257.746m] vs. [70.168m] -267.327%
H1 Profit before taxation [257.746m] vs. [70.168m] -267.327%
H1 Profit/ [loss] for the period [180.422m] vs. [52.626m] -242.838%
H1 Basic and diluted EPS [2.09] vs. [0.57] -266.667%
No interim dividend

read more

N.S.E Today

Internationally, WTI [West Texas Intermediate] Crude Oil fell sharply
Friday and back below $50.00
The Turkish Lira cratered and Bloomberg reported
''Traders scrambled Monday morning as Turkey’s lira plunged, turning
off live platform pricing and restricting quotes amid volatility
caused by rising tensions between the U.S. and its NATO ally''
Zimbabwe appears to be teetering at the Edge [which was described thus
by Hunter S Thompson
“ The edge...there is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over’’
Zimbabwe is wrestling with DOLLARS BOLLARS and ZOLLARS
Sudan’s currency strengthened to 18.5 pounds to the dollar from 20.2
on the black market on Sunday, the first day of business since the
United States lifted trade sanctions, raising a glimmer of hope for
recovery in the war-torn country.
The Central Bank of Kenya issued a Press Release captioned Chase Bank
Limited (IR) - Non-Binding Offer
State Bank of Mauritius appears to have bought the ''Good Bank''
The Nairobi All Share has corrected -7.45% since 28/08/2017 through
this morning.
The Nairobi All Share turned +0.32 points higher to close at 161.03
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed +19.15 points to close at 3712.37
Equity Turnover clocked 490m but has been subdued this month.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea and Coffee was high-ticked 7% to close at 26.75 and traded

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and
firmed +1.01% to close at 25.00 and traded 9.484m shares worth
237.139m which represented 48.39% of the total volume traded.
Safaricom traded off small on some wild accusations by the Opposition,
which accusations are now being discounted to zero. Safaricom is
+35.09% on a Total Return Basis in 2017 and I stand by 32.00 Year End

announced a Proposed Sale of the Mr. Price Franchise Business
traded 200 shares at 3.95 and is -34.71% through 2017.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank corrected -2.702% to close at 36.00 a 4 month Low and
traded 1.632m shares. Equity Bank has corrected -8.33% over the last 4
Standard Bank firmed +0.62% to close at 80.00 and traded 87,800 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenGen had 4 Buyers for every Seller and consequentially rallied
+2.87% to close at 8.95 and traded 155,500 shares. KenGen will hurdle
10.00 before Year End and is +54.31% in 2017.

corrected -1.21% lower to close at 245.00 and traded 289,600
shares. EABL has lagged the All Share in 2017.

BAT traded 70,200 shares worth 56.16m all at an unchanged 800.00.

ARM Cement closed unchanged at 13.00 on heavy volume action of 2.326m
shares. ARM has had a torrid year and is -42.22% through 2017.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2017

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