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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 12th of October 2017

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US 30 Year/2 Year Spread via @gadfly

Home Thoughts

“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared
to what lies within us.” ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

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V.S Naipaul A Bend in The River

“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at
night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of
river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and
even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise
— dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were
another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much
more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt
the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you
had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was
always there. You felt the land taking you back to what was there a
hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

“It was as Nazruddin had said, when I asked him about visas and he had
said that bank notes were better. 'You can always get into those
places. What is hard is to get out. That is a private fight. Everybody
has to find his own way.”
― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

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Warhol’s 1986 work, made a year before the Pop artist’s death, depicts
’“The Last Supper" 60 times in black and white. The huge grid -- 32
feet wide -- has 10 columns and six rows.

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The Last Supper (Italian: Il Cenacolo or L'Ultima Cena is a late 15th-century mural painting by Leonardo da Vinci

The Last Supper (Italian: Il Cenacolo [il tʃeˈnaːkolo] or L'Ultima
Cena [ˈlultima ˈtʃeːna]) is a late 15th-century mural painting by
Leonardo da Vinci housed by the refectory of the Convent of Santa
Maria delle Grazie in Milan. It is one of the world's most
recognizable paintings.[1]

The work is presumed to have been commenced around 1495–1496 and was
commissioned as part of a plan of renovations to the church and its
convent buildings by Leonardo's patron Ludovico Sforza, Duke of Milan.
The painting represents the scene of The Last Supper of Jesus with his
apostles, as it is told in the Gospel of John, 13:21. Leonardo has
depicted the consternation that occurred among the Twelve Disciples
when Jesus announced that one of them would betray him.

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Law & Politics

The kingdom has become “more repressive than in the past,” said James
Dorsey, a Middle East specialist at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological

“It’s a break with the era of King Abdullah, who often sought to forge
consensus,” he said. “The Salmans do not tolerate any criticism

“You need a very firm hand to see this through without provoking
chaos,” said Ali Shihabi, who’s close to the government and executive
director of the Arabia Foundation in Washington. “The country is going
through a generational succession, the government is undertaking a
herculean effort to restructure the country amid low oil prices, and
it’s under attack by Shiite and Sunni jihadis and Iran.”

A search for consensus would be futile, he said, because “the
political spectrum between the conservatives and the liberals is so
wide as to be impossible to reconcile.”

“Saudi Arabia never was an open society, but it never was a kingdom of
fear,” said Jamal Khashoggi, a senior journalist and former government
adviser now living in self-imposed exile in the U.S. The wave of
arrests is “part of the closing down of space for freedom of
expression,” he said.

The tougher policies at home and abroad are intertwined in the Twitter
hashtag “black list,” launched by royal court adviser Saud Al Qahtani
in August. He urged Saudis to name and shame people who took Qatar’s
side in the Gulf dispute. There’ll be “tough judgment and pursuit” for
every “mercenary” who gets blacklisted, he wrote.

The hashtag has taken on a life of its own. Recent targets include a
famous comedian who makes satirical YouTube videos, and a female
activist arrested years ago for driving. Khashoggi has also been
attacked online, labeled a traitor and mercenary.

“The media and the electronic army are being encouraged to go after
those people,” he said. “It’s very Orwellian.”


Its a fiendishly complex Pivot to pull off and so much vim and vigour
is being wasted on a sectarian cut-de-sac.

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Xi's legacy may rest on the world's biggest infrastructure project
Law & Politics

Sometimes known as One Belt One Road, or OBOR, it will attempt to
integrate China’s markets with those on three continents, Asia,
Europe, and Africa. The idea is to build an integrated rail network
crisscrossing Central and Southeast Asia and reaching far into Europe,
while constructing large, modern deep-water ports to link shipping
from China and the surrounding western Pacific to South Asia, Kenya,
Tanzania, and beyond.

So far, more than 60 countries have signed on or appear inclined to
participate. Together they account for about 70 percent of the Earth’s
population and 75 percent of its known energy supplies. Finding
reasonably accurate statistics about Chinese geopolitical initiatives
has long been a challenge, but under Xi, OBOR appears to have amassed
well over $100 billion in commitments from various Chinese or
Chinese-derived institutions, including the recently formed Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank, which some already see as a rival to
the World Bank.

Backed by Xi’s personal prestige, heft on this scale has turned OBOR
into a kind of organizing motif for China’s politics and economy. The
clear hope is that it will cement the country’s place as a leading,
and, perhaps someday soon, the preeminent center of gravity in the
world. Distinct echoes of this kind of ambition are becoming common in
the speeches of Chinese officialdom. In September, for example,
Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi promoted Xi’s “diplomatic thought,”
saying it “innovates upon and transcends the past 300 years of
traditional Western international relations theory.”

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"Oftentimes for the Trumps, optics matter more than substance" @VanityFair
Law & Politics

On Monday evening, Ivanka Trump took the stage at Fortune’s Most
Powerful Women Summit, in Washington D.C., her adopted hometown.
During her brief tenure as a White House adviser, Ivanka has had an
uncomfortable time accumulating credibility at similar high-level
networking events. In April, at the G20 Summit in Berlin, the
moderator of her panel greeted her with a dismissive question about
how she managed her various priorities. “What is your role,” the
moderator queried, “and who are you representing: your father as
president of the United States, the American people, or your
business?” Members of the audience groaned when she discussed her
father’s attitudes toward paid family leave. “You hear the reaction
from the audience,” the moderator interrupted, using their audible
disdain as a springboard into another question about her father’s
treatment of women.

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Kim Jong-Un's little sister -- and chief image-maker -- has established herself as the most powerful woman in the nuclear-armed state's political hierarchy. @AFP
Law & Politics

With her elevation to North Korea's powerful politburo, leader Kim
Jong-Un's little sister -- and chief image-maker -- has established
herself as the most powerful woman in the nuclear-armed state's
political hierarchy.

Yo-Jong is believed to be in her late 20s, making her the youngest
member of the reshuffled Workers' Party politburo that was unveiled at
the weekend.

She is the only one of Kim Jong-Un's siblings to hold an official
title and -- in a family tree complicated by their father Kim
Jong-Il's various marriages and partnerships -- enjoys a special
relationship with her brother in that they also share the same mother.

"They share a life-long bond and her promotion to the politburo means
Kim Jong-Un has complete trust in her," said Professor Yang Moo-Jin of
the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

"She could be the one to take over from Kim in the event of his
absence," Yang told AFP.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1869
Dollar Index 92.83
Japan Yen 112.26
Swiss Franc 0.9718
Pound 1.3245
Aussie 0.7819
India Rupee 65.125
South Korea Won 1133.74
Brazil Real 3.1712
Egypt Pound 17.6493
South Africa Rand 13.4779

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World Bank Africa's Pulse, No. 16, October 2017

Following a sharp slowdown over the past two years, a recovery is
underway in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in
the region is expected to strengthen to 2.4 percent in 2017 from 1.3
percent in 2016, slightly below the pace previously projected. The
rebound is being led by the region's largest economies. In the second
quarter of 2017, Nigeria  exited a five-quarter recession and South
Africa emerged from two successive quarters of negative growth.
Economic activity has also picked up in Angola. Elsewhere, an increase
in mining output along with a pickup in the agriculture sector is
boosting economic activity in metals exporters. GDP growth is stable
in non-resource intensive countries, supported by domestic demand. But
the recovery is
weak in several important dimensions. Regional per capita output
growth is forecast to be negative for the second consecutive year,
while investment growth remains low, and productivity growth is

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Angola to return to economic growth in 2017 MacauHub

Angola was one of the two Portuguese-speaking countries experiencing
an economic recession in 2016, with GDP contracting 0.7%, but is
expected to return to growth of 1.5% this year, according to the World
Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The only other Portuguese-speaking country whose economy contracted in
2016 was Brazil, with a fall of 3.6%, according to the same figures,
which predict that the largest country in Latin America will grow by a
modest 0.7% this year.

The report released on Tuesday in Washington projects that Brazil will
achieve economic growth of 1.5% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2022.

Back in Africa, the other four Portuguese-speaking countries – Cabo
Verde (Cape Verde), Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique and São Tomé and
Príncipe – show economic growth in both 2016 and forecasts for 2017,
2018 and 2022.

According to the IMF, these four countries, with the exception of
Mozambique, have experienced steady rates of economic growth over the
years, with Cabo Verde at around 5.0% and Sao Tome and Principe also
around 5.0%.

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Angola's coming power struggle African Business Magazine

The 38-year rule of José Eduardo dos Santos was over. The peaceful
handover of power by Africa’s second longest-serving president is
significant, but the question is just how real a transfer it will be.

Although dos Santos takes his leave, the ageing leader made sure to
entrench his power base before departing, and Lourenço inherits an
office and a body politic that has been completely crafted in dos
Santos’s image. That said, chinks in the ex-president’s armour are
starting to appear, and whether or not Lourenço will exercise power
freely depends on dos Santos’s popularity within the MPLA and the
party’s popularity within Angola.

Having considered stepping down before, dos Santos was well prepared
to set up exit strategies. The national assembly has passed a bill
making him “president emeritus”, a position that will give him
immunity from prosecution for any abuse of office. In addition, he
will remain president of the ruling MPLA and hence will continue to
choose candidates for the national assembly and exert wide influence
on government.

Weeks before stepping down he pushed a law through parliament blocking
Lourenço from appointing any new chiefs of military, police and
intelligence services for eight years and instead promoted 165 senior
police officers of his own choice to key security positions.

In this manner, Lourenço is being thoroughly checked and balanced

Lourenço has never been a member of dos Santos’s inner circle. Despite
election posters showing a united MPLA front, they are not close. In
2001, Lourenço, at the time secretary-general of the MPLA, expressed
his interest in the presidency as dos Santos toyed with the idea of
retiring. When dos Santos changed his mind, Lourenço was seen as a
threat and relegated to the sidelines for the next decade. But he kept
his head down and slowly rose to become defence minister in 2014.

“My guess is that we’re going to have to wait 18 months to two years
to tell what is going on,” she says. “I would be very surprised if
there were any moves to be antagonistic before then, but I think we
are going to see a standoff at some point.”

Dr Gastrow concludes: “At the moment everyone is holding their breath
to see when a split between Lourenço and dos Santos will happen.”

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No Congo election until mid-2019, says electoral commission

A long-delayed election in Democratic Republic of Congo to replace
President Joseph Kabila cannot take place until at least April 2019,
the electoral commission said, a schedule certain to enrage opponents
who say Kabila is clinging to power.

The polls were originally scheduled for November 2016. The schedule
outlined by the electoral commission would torpedo an agreement
between Kabila’s representatives and his opponents that the election
would take place before the end of this year.

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Raila Odinga takes a gamble by threatening to boycott Kenya's election @TheEconomist
Kenyan Economy

IN THE rickety wooden markets in Nairobi, where traders flog old
books, second-hand clothes and kitchenware, walking away is a buyer’s
last negotiating ploy. If he is lucky, he will be chased down the
street and offered a better price. Raila Odinga, Kenya’s softly-spoken
opposition leader, seems to be hoping a similar strategy may rescue
his electoral chances.

On October 10th Mr Odinga withdrew from a re-run of the presidential
election scheduled for October 26th, arguing that if it went ahead
then it would not be free or fair. Courts had already annulled the
presidential part of a wider set of elections held on August 8th,
after finding problems with the way in which it was run. But no
reforms have been made to the electoral process since then, he argued.

It had already been clear for several weeks that Mr Odinga did not
plan to contest the election. His coalition of parties, the National
Super Alliance (NASA), had been running a bare-bones campaign. The
candidate himself had made plans to travel to Britain and possibly
America two weeks before the vote—prime campaigning time—presumably to
drum up international support for his withdrawal.

Yet the announcement still contained a surprise. This is because
instead of proposing a straightforward boycott, Mr Odinga seems to be
hoping that by standing down he will force the courts to halt the
election altogether and order a new one in the future after the
parties have nominated new candidates.

Under the original Supreme Court ruling that annulled August’s
election, the electoral commission has until November 1st to organise
a new one. If that deadline is missed then Kenya will be plunged into
a constitutional crisis. It is unclear how that would be resolved.
Those in the camp of the incumbent president, Uhuru Kenyatta, want an
election to be held no matter what. Some hardliners want him simply to
be declared president. In parliament MPs pushed through an amendment
to the electoral law that automatically awards victory to the
remaining candidate if one of them withdraws from a re-run of a
presidential election.

Yet the real crisis is one of legitimacy, not law. Should the courts
and electoral commission go ahead with a vote that is not contested by
Mr Odinga, his supporters will surely try their best to disrupt it,
says Michael Chege of the University of Nairobi. In their strongholds,
principally in Western Kenya and certain Nairobi slums, they could
prevent the electoral commission from holding a vote that would
satisfy the courts.

By walking away, Mr Odinga seems to be gambling on his ability to
threaten chaos to push Mr Kenyatta to negotiate. But the trouble with
that strategy is that Mr Odinga is running out of money. And although
protests occasionally gum up the centre of Nairobi, even his most
partisan supporters will not stay on the streets indefinitely. The
worst outcome, for Mr Odinga and Kenya, is that his bluff is called
and the election goes ahead without him. Mr Kenyatta might remain
president, but a large proportion of the population would not
recognise his right to rule and would feel left out of the political

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The all-share index dropped 0.67 percent blue-chip index 1.41 percent, Kenya's dollar-denominated 2024 sovereign bond fell as much as 1.2 cents Reuters data
Kenyan Economy

Odinga, who successfully challenged the Aug. 8 re-election of
President Uhuru Kenyatta last month, said the repeat poll should be
canceled and a fresh election held after the election board has
carried out reforms.

“There was cautious optimism, but now political risk has risen
considerably overnight driven by the opposition candidate’s
withdrawal,” said Ken Minjire, the head of securities at Genghis
Capital in Nairobi.

The all-share index has lost 5.5 percent and the blue chip index is
down 10 percent since the August election was annulled.

Concern over the prolonged political uncertainty have hit economic
growth, with businesses and households feeling the pinch. The
government has already cut this year’s economic growth forecast to 5.5
percent from the initial 5.9 percent.

But Aly Khan Satchu, an independent trader and analyst, said he
expected the election to go ahead after the court ruled in favour of
the minority candidate, ushering in a relief rally afterwards.

“I expect the Oct. 26 election to take place ... We should start to
see a recovery at the bourse,” Satchu said.

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09-OCT-2017 :: Politics Landing Blows on Economy @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy

What is clear is that the advantage of incumbency in fact accelerates
in this Round 2 of the Election. Therefore, I expect the Opposition to
boycott the Election entirely. And that the strategy of tension will
be maintained via degrading and denigrating the entire process. Market
Participants need to model this scenario because this is the direction
of travel.

''Essentially Kenya faces a very uncertain 21 days'' @DaMina_Advisors.

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Political Crisis With No Clear End Grinds Down Kenyan Economy
Kenyan Economy

“My clients are afraid of coming into the CBD because the protests can
mean you either get tear gassed or robbed,” Njeri, 33, said in an
interview. “The human traffic to the shop is almost nothing. We just
want to go back to normal.”

“The economy is slowly shutting down as we wait for political issues
to be resolved,” Anzetse Were, an independent economist, said by phone
from Nairobi. “People are holding onto their money, businesses are
suffering and contracts have been delayed. We are in uncharted ground
and nobody knows how this will end.”

While the opposition demonstrations haven’t led to major upheaval thus
far, “risks of violent unrest may be heightened after Tuesday’s
announcement,” said Jared Jeffery, an analyst at NKC African Economics
in Paarl, South Africa. “The country is set to remain on edge for

Investor unease is evident in the financial markets. The Nairobi
Securities Exchange All Share Index has fallen the most in Africa and
is the third-worst performer in the world since the election outcome
was declared void on Sept. 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The government’s international bonds due in 2024 have also dropped
since then, with yields climbing 44 basis points to 6.46 percent.

While businesses can prepare for short-term uncertainty created by the
elections, they can’t do much about protracted turmoil and violence,
Carole Kariuki, the chief executive officer of the Kenya Private
Sector Alliance, a business lobby group, said by phone. Kenya’s future
electoral processes need to be truncated to safeguard the economy and
business from a repeat of the upheaval, she said.

“What Kenya now needs is a snappy resolution of the election,” said
Ronak Gopaldas, a Johannesburg-based Africa strategist at FirstRand
Ltd.’s Rand Merchant Bank. “It is getting the exact opposite. Current
developments will only serve to puncture the outlook for the country
in the short term.”

At her boutique in Nairobi, Njeri can’t afford to wait for the
politicians to sort out their differences.

“We have no business now to be honest,” she said

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"The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Kenyan Economy

The Kenyan parliament passed an amendment on Wednesday to the
country’s election laws, saying that if one candidate withdraws from a
repeat presidential election, the other one would automatically win.

Paul Virilio, in his book Speed and Politics, says: “ The
revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of
production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog
in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), in other words a producer of speed.’’

What does it cost to put 500 people on the streets? I venture $10.00 a
head max. $5,000.00 versus an economic deterioration of at least 100x
is an outstanding example of the efficacy of this asymmetric strategy.
Go and compare the street protests in Togo and you will note our
street protests belong in the theatre.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +19.83% 2017 [2 month low]


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +14.39% 2017 [2 and 1/2 month Low]


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

BITCOIN [the premier crypto-currency] smashed through $5,000 and is
+73% in less than a month +428% year-to-date and +750% in the last
The Japanese Nikkei 225 is at a 21 year high and the US Equity markets
continue to strike record all time highs once or twice a week.
The South African All Share whilst lagging the all-conquering Zimbabwe
Stock Exchange [more a store of money trade in a possible repeat of
2008] is at a record as well.
The World Bank issued its Africa's Pulse, No. 16, October 2017 Report and said
Following a sharp slowdown over the past two years, a recovery is
underway in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in
the region is expected to strengthen to 2.4 percent in 2017 from 1.3
percent in 2016, slightly below the pace previously projected.
Regional per capita output growth is forecast to be negative for the
second consecutive year, while investment growth remains low, and
productivity growth is falling.
Ethiopia is set to be the fastest-growing economy in sub-Saharan
Africa this year and next, says the #IMF.
Here CS Matiangi banned demos in Nairobi, Kisumu and Mombasa city centres.
The Nairobi All Share ticked -0.4255% lower to close at 159.10 a fresh
2 month low.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased -4.99 points to close at 36401.14 a fresh 2
and 1/2 month low.
I venture 26th will prove a political Guillotine and that the market
is trying to base out here.
Equity turnover was lacklustre and clocked just 259.839m.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea and Coffee was high-ticked +6.00% to close at 26.50 on the
grand total of 100 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom eased -1.00% to close at 24.75 and traded 6.133m shares
worth 153.10m which represented 58.911% of the total volume traded in
what was another lacklustre low volume trading session at the NSE.
Safaricom is 7.47% below a record closing high of 26.75 reached at the
end of August. The price correction has been shallow and a tailwind
will take us to new all time highs.

TPS Serena hotels was marked down -7.41% to close at 25.00 on
noteworthy volume of 503,400 shares worth 12.598m. TPS Serena is
+21.95% in 2017 and is [inversely] correlated to the unfolding
political narrative.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Standard Bank traded 131,700 shares all at 79.50 +3.25% and bucked the Trend.
Barclays Bank firmed +1.041% to close at 9.70 and traded 268,600 shares.
COOP Bank traded 882,900 shares and closed unchanged at 16.50.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenolKobil eased -3.33% to close at 14.50 on tin trading volume of
just 54,100 shares. KenolKobil has corrected -10.769% lower this month
and this looks overextended and an attractive Entry Price Point.

ARM closed unchanged at 13.00 [-48.03% in 2017] and traded 2.655m
shares. The recent news flow has been accompanied by a marked increase
in trading volumes.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2017

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