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Thursday 19th of October 2017 |
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Macro Thoughts
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Olafur Eliasson, The Weather Project 2003 @Tate Africa |
“Did you know we know we are all the object of another's imagination?”― Carlos Fuentes
“... for I had reached a point in my life when I came to view words differently. A closer look at language could reveal the secret of life.” ― Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o, Wizard of the Crow
“Your own actions are a better mirror of your life than the actions of all your enemies put together.” ― Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o, Wizard of the Crow
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Banana Leaf Apolo's signature fish head curry dish. Photographer: Banana Leaf Apolo Africa |
Banana Leaf Apolo This casual restaurant on Race Course Road serves its curries on a banana leaf, rather than a plate. It’s a favorite of British chef Alun Sperring of the Chilli Pickle restaurant in Brighton, who enjoys the fish head curry. “This dish has become famous since the ’60s when a South Indian restaurant owner offered it to entice the local Chinese clientele,” he says. “The gravy features lots of tamarind, chili, onions, garlic, tomatoes, coriander, cumin, turmeric and fenugreek powder served with okra and aubergine and a side of steamed rice. It’s delicious and as you work through the large bowl of thin gravy expect a nice burn to build from within.”
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At the Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping Plays the Emperor By Jiayang Fan New Yorker Law & Politics |
Perhaps no event embodies the unyielding abstruseness and the unforgiving hierarchy of China’s ruling Communist Party as much as its Party Congress, the government’s most important leadership conference. Attended by some twenty-three hundred delegates from across the country, it is held every five years in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People—and when the weeklong meeting finally begins, one can be certain that the crucial politicking has already concluded. What proceeds is a choreographed spectacle bearing fastidiously scripted speeches, pro-forma elections of what has heretofore been determined (a leadership reshuffle in the seven-member Politburo, the highest echelon of power), and, in the case of the 19th Communist Party Congress, which opened today, high-spirited, propagandistic posters reminding the masses that “Life in China Is Good! Everyday Is Like a Holiday!”
This is a message that Xi Jinping, who was appointed President at the previous Party Congress, in 2012, is eager to instill in a country that continues to grapple with a vertiginous pace of change and the outsize influence of politics in everyday life. Xi is almost certainly guaranteed another five-year term, if not longer. Since taking office, he has sought to launch the greatest ideological campaign since the days of Mao. The aim is not so much to bring about a Maoist revival—the terror of the Great Helmsman’s Cultural Revolution still haunts the nation—but to reinvigorate belief in and loyalty to the Party, thereby strengthening the regime’s legitimacy. As he stated during the last Party Congress, the Party, which must constantly remain “vigilant,” will always remain “the firm leadership core.”
Xi’s desire to achieve the “China Dream,” defined as the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” is categorically distinct, in scope and ambition, from that of his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. Whereas Hu and Jiang were competent if colorless and largely uninspiring apparatchiks, Xi instantly and aggressively began consolidating his power, accruing enough political capital to spearhead the most extensive anti-graft campaign in modern Chinese history. The choice was a momentous one. When Xi assumed leadership over the Party, corruption posed the greatest threat to its survival. In toppling “tigers and flies”—powerful officials and lowly bureaucrats—he both burnished his image as a model of rectitude and strategically ousted potential competitors. Earlier last year, the Communist Party anointed Xi as a “core” leader, granting him a level of authority that had not been bestowed on his immediate predecessor, Hu, and advancing him to the revered ranks of Mao and Deng Xiaoping. Already the head of the Party, the military, and the state, Xi has also made himself the head of several commissions, which allows him to weigh in on everything from economic reform to state security to cyber issues. To be the core leader and the chief executive licenses him to play an almost imperial role in shaping the fate of the nation. As Xi has made clear from the outset, he is intent on both defining a new world order and restoring to Chinese culture its former esteem.
Yet Xi’s mission should be regarded in the context of a collective and profound post-traumatic stress disorder, the result of almost two centuries of cataclysmic events in China, beginning with the devastation of the Opium Wars, which exposed the country for the first time in its history to a superior force—Great Britain—and shook the very meaning of Chinese identity and its inherent sense of exceptionalism. Xi, and many others in China, long for an era when the country occupied the pinnacle of civilization. But those days were accompanied by the absolutism of emperors whose levels of competence were a matter of caprice. The feudal system protected the cycle of dynastic succession, which propped up the despotism of those both fit and unfit for office. For every Tang Taizong, who ushered in the golden years of the Tang Dynasty, there were many others like Empress Dowager Cixi, who usurped the throne, crippled the path of progress, and contributed to the downfall of the Qing Dynasty.
As Xi made clear today, during his three-hour address to the Party Congress, he sees this moment as “a new historic juncture in China’s development”—and himself as the man to seize it.
Refining his personal control rather than reforming a sclerotic system may seem expedient for Xi, and, in the short term, he may be able to accomplish his immediate goals faster. But setting the precedent of a modern-day emperor ensnares Chinese politics in a cycle of volatility and unsustainability that renders an entire nation vulnerable, once again, to the whimsy of an individual. “Several thousand years ago, the Chinese nation trod a path that was different from other nations’ culture and development,” Xi said in a speech to the Politburo in 2014. “We should be more respectful and mindful of five thousand years of continuous Chinese culture.” Xi’s vision for China’s future suggests a great leap backward, in which old lessons remain unlearned.
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China Rising Law & Politics |
China’s parabolic rise has been simply breath-taking. Millions of Chinese have been lifted out of poverty and China continues to expand at a pace that other big economies can only dream about. Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Road [OBOR] program binds the world to Beijing because all the roads and railways have but one destination and that is China. Washington has metastized into an epicentre of risk [Donald Trump refers] and talk of a unipolar US-dominated world have largely evaporated. President Putin refused to be rolled over by a Victoria Nuland inspired ‘’Colour Revolution’’ in the Ukraine and drew a line in the sand and one of the collateral consequences of that was to send President Putin into the ready embrace of Xi Jinping. In fact, far from being a unipolar world, we have entered a bipolar or even a Tripolar world [US, China and Russia]
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28-AUG-2017 :: China has established control over the South China Sea Africa |
Apart from a few half-hearted and timid FONOPs [freedom of navigation operations], China has established control over the South China Sea. It has created artificial Islands and then militarised those artificial islands across the South China Sea. It is a mind-boggling geopolitical advance any which way you care to cut it. China has advanced its footprint in Pakistan, where it has leased the Gwadar Port [giving China and Central Asia access to the Gulf region and the Middle East] for 43 years. Sri Lanka, which gorged on Chinese debt, has had to disgorge the Hambantota Port to its creditor. And recently, we saw China formally open a miitary facility in Djibouti. ese moves taken together speak to a material Chinese advance. e pivot to Asia which was supposed to contain China is dead in the water and China has sprung that trap.
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When bad behavior ruins a company @business Law & Politics |
Accusations of sexual misconduct against Harvey Weinstein haven’t just rocked Hollywood – they’ve also led to the potential destruction of his company, Weinstein Co. The privately-held independent film and TV studio is in talks to sell itself to Colony Capital, the private equity arm of Colony NorthStar, run by billionaire Thomas Barrack. News of an immediate sale after a crisis is rare, but Weinstein Co.’s corporate governance structure and small size leave it vulnerable, says Larry Hutcher, co-founder and co-managing partner at Davidoff Hutcher & Citron. Bloomberg entertainment reporter Anousha Sakoui also tells host Alex Sherman about Weinstein Co.’s recent box-office failures and traces the company’s history, from Miramax to today.
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Iraqi Kurds Withdraw to June 2014 Lines as Offensive Continues Law & Politics |
Large amounts of territory seized by the Kurdish Peshmerga over the course of multiple years of war with ISIS has been ceded back to the Iraqi central government in only about 72 hours. Iraqi officials now say that the Peshmerga is back to its June 2014 borders, the start of the ISIS conflict.
Iraq’s fast military offensive, bolstered by Shi’ite militias, saw them seize the oil-rich city of Kirkuk on Monday,expanding into Sinjar and Khanaqin on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Iraqi forces took territory near Mosul.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.1808 Dollar Index 93.34 Japan Yen 112.88 Swiss Franc 0.9796 Pound 1.3185 Aussie 0.7863 India Rupee 65.082 South Korea Won 1131.74 Brazil Real 3.1715 Egypt Pound 17.6692 South Africa Rand 13.5318
The dollar rose as high as 113.095 yen JPY= in early Asian trade, its strongest level since Oct. 6. The dollar last changed hands at 112.97 yen, steady from late U.S. trade on Wednesday.
This week’s rise in U.S. bond yields helped lend support to the greenback. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield US2YT=RR rose to its highest since November 2008 on Wednesday on the back of expectations for tighter global monetary policy.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR touched a one-week high of 2.352 percent on Wednesday, and last stood at 2.342 percent, having risen six basis points so far this week.
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Eni CEO dismisses Ray Dalio's big short, saying it's no "big issue" World Currencies |
After years of surviving a sluggish Italian economy and an historic collapse in crude prices, a $300 million bet against his company apparently isn’t enough to spook the head of energy giant Eni SpA.
The short placed against the Rome-based company by hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio is not a “big issue," Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi said Wednesday during a Bloomberg TV interview. The bet by Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates LP was part of $1.1 billion in wagers against Italian banks and businesses. It was reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday.
“This has happened already in the past with hedge funds; they come, they go," Descalzi said. Given the oil market’s turmoil, “there is a lot of volatility and the long positions left some years ago." He wasn’t worried about a drag on investor confidence, he said.
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Angola is not the next Venezuela, state oil firm says as it cuts debt Africa |
Angola is not the next Venezuela, the head of state oil firm Sonangol said on Wednesday while pledging to further cut debt, even if both oil-rich nations have relied heavily on loans from China.
Venezuela, the Latin American oil behemoth, has found itself struggling to repay debts to China and Russia that total at least $50 billion. But Sonangol chair Isabel dos Santos said her company was not on a similar track.
“There is really pretty much nothing in common,” dos Santos said. “Maybe just the weather.”
Dos Santos told a Reuters newsmaker event that Sonangol has already slashed $3 billion in debt, and that she has the backing of the new president for an ambitious reform plans that aims to further cut debts.
“Our relations are in full alignment,” dos Santos said, adding that João Lourenço, who took office last month, was “fully aware” of her plans for Sonangol’s transformation.
Conclusions
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Crisis? What crisis? @Africa_Conf Kenyan Economy |
Is there a political crisis in Kenya? Would the involvement of foreign mediators help solve it? On this issue there is stark disagreement between President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga. Kenyatta has been quick to reject the assertion that a constitutional crisis is looming. He said: 'There is no crisis and we are not interested in mediation.' For emphasis, 12 MPs from Kenyatta's Jubilee party have jointly written a letter reiterating this to the African Union, the European Union, the United Nations and the United States government.
Odinga, presidential candidate for the National Super Alliance (Nasa), insists there is a deepening crisis and that the governing Jubilee party is trying to scupper democratic reforms. He told Africa Confidential that there are no circumstances under which he would contest the repeat elections on 26 October: 'The 26th is a no deal, you can take that to the bank. The 26th will not happen, if it happens it will not be an election in the Republic of Kenya… there will not be credibility.'
Odinga appears to concur with Kenyatta over international mediators but has invested considerable time and energy in an international tour to win overseas opinion. Outside involvement isn't necessary to resolve the dispute, Odinga told the Chatham House think tank in London on 13 October, the solution is in the hands of Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. He demanded access to all digital records at the commission which he insisted would show vote-fixing by its officials. 'The IEBC should open the servers,' he demanded.
What happens next? There will be a flurry of court hearings on the elections. The IEBC wants to clarify the effects of Parliament's amendments on its operations. Nasa is going to the Supreme Court to challenge the validity of the High Court's ruling putting Aukot and the smaller parties on the ballot for 26 October. It also wants to challenge the schedule for the rerun.
Odinga said he would contest elections only when Nasa's demands for reform were met, adding that his supporters, in areas such as Nyanza, Western and Coast provinces and Nairobi, want a boycott of the 26 October rerun. Should such a boycott gain wide support, Nasa could argue the rerun – and Kenyatta's presumed victory – will lack legitimacy. The constitution stipulates that a presidential election must be held in all 290 constituencies.
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Kenyan election board head not certain vote will be free and fair Kenyan Economy |
The head of the election board told a news conference that technical preparations for the new poll were on course, but that his attempts to make “critical changes”, notably to staff, had been defeated by a majority of commissioners. He also said he had come under pressure to resign.
“Under such conditions, it is difficult to guarantee a free fair and credible election,” he said.
But Kenyatta has shown no sign of compromise. In a televised speech on Wednesday, he said: “We walk towards the declared date of the 26th of October both as a God-fearing leadership and government.”
Conclusions
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Kenyan Election Authority in Disarray a Week Before Repeat Vote Bloomberg Kenyan Economy |
“As things stand now, they are not able to conduct an election; if they go ahead it’s illegitimate,” said Ndung’u Wainaina, executive director of the International Center for Policy and Conflict in Nairobi. “If they want, the IEBC can invoke constitutional provisions and call off the election. Either call off or proceed, but they should be prepared to live with the consequences.”
Opposition leader Raila Odinga withdrew from the rerun on Oct. 10, saying the commission failed to agree to reforms including changes to its staff and systems to ensure a credible vote.
Chebukati said he’s made “several attempts” to institute changes at the commission, but his proposals have been defeated by a majority of commissioners. A senior official at the authority said last month the seven-member commission was split over issues including the removal of staff suspected of being complicit in the annulled August vote.
For the vote to be credible, Chebukati said the electoral authority needs to be allowed to work independently and its commissioners must pledge to serve the nation rather than partisan political interests.
“Only then can I commit to serve as the national presiding officer in order to deliver a free, fair and credible election,” he said.
“The commission is dysfunctional, there is no doubt about that,” said Peter Wanyande, a professor of political science at the University of Nairobi. “They may go ahead and purport to hold elections under these circumstances. It won’t be credible.”
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09-OCT-2017 :: It's clear now that the opposition is taking an asymmetric approach. Kenyan Economy |
Paul Virilio, in his book Speed and Politics, says: “ The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words a producer of speed.’’
What is clear is that the advantage of incumbency in fact accelerates in this round two of the election. Therefore, I expect the opposition to boycott the election entirely. And that the strategy of tension will be maintained via degrading and denigrating the en‘tire process.
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How the gloss came off Kenya's Supreme Court ruling via @FT Kenyan Economy |
The historic ruling by Kenya’s Supreme Court last month to annul presidential elections sent a frisson through much of the continent. From Johannesburg to Lagos, democrats celebrated a decision that seemed to strike a blow for institutional independence and send a signal to incumbents that elections must be free from any hint of tampering. (There were certainly a few hints of that in Kenya, where electoral forms disappeared, transmission of results broke down and, a week before polling, the man in charge of the electoral IT system was found tortured and killed.)
The Supreme Court was concerned enough to declare the August poll null and void and to order a re-run. Not only had the judiciary faced down the executive. The executive, in the form of President Uhuru Kenyatta, begrudgingly accepted its verdict, even though it had deprived him of a second term. Kenyans from both sides of the political divide celebrated what many — if not all — saw as a deepening of democracy. One exuberant commentator said that Britain — where Supreme Court judges had been branded “enemies of the people” for ruling that the Brexit vote had to be ratified by parliament — could learn a thing or two from Kenyans.
If the gloss on the Supreme Court ruling was mostly positive then, a month later, much of that gloss has gone. Kenya is stuck in political limbo. Two things have happened to undermine the hope that constitutionalism will triumph. The first is that Raila Odinga is refusing to participate in the electoral re-run, due to take place on October 26. That leaves Mr Kenyatta as the sole serious contender. If he wins, opposed by only a clutch of no-hopers, it will be a hollow finale to what was supposed to be a battle for the soul of democracy.
On the face of it, Mr Odinga’s decision not to run looks puzzling. Why go to all the bother of challenging the August election and forcing a re-run, and then refuse to stand?
Yet his reasoning turns out to have some rationale. None of the reforms to the electoral process that Mr Odinga has demanded have been granted. The same electoral commission will be in charge in October. This week, one commission official fled to the US for her life, saying the electoral board was so partisan it could not hold a credible poll.
Apart from her, the same people Mr Odinga accused of sabotaging the first vote will preside over the second, employing the same electoral register, the same procedures and the same — evidently flawed — electronic tallying system. You do not have to be Einstein to expect the result to be the same, too.
If Mr Odinga is raining on the democratic parade, so is Mr Kenyatta. He has accused his opponent of being a sore loser. (This is the fourth presidential contest in which Mr Odinga has been declared the loser, though not necessarily the fourth that he has lost.) Worse, after agreeing to abide by the Supreme Court decision, the president has adopted language that would make the Daily Mail blush. He has called the judges “thugs” and has vowed to “fix” the judiciary if he wins a second term. He has lost no time in bringing the court to heel, rushing through an amendment to the electoral law preventing the Supreme Court from annulling a poll unless irregularities have a material impact on the result.
Almost worse than this tug of war between the main contenders is the fact that Kenya’s election has now vanished from the polling booth only to reappear in the courtroom. Mr Odinga’s withdrawal from the October 26 contest was tactical. He was counting on a previous ruling that said a re-run could not take place if a candidate died or pulled out. (He chose pulling out.) That tactic backfired when an also-ran candidate, who had polled almost nothing in the first round, got the high court to agree he could stand in the re-run. One constitutional lawyer said the poll would go ahead because of an interpretation of the words “and” and “all”.
While highly paid lawyers shuffle in and out of court, many of Mr Odinga’s supporters have taken to the streets. A few have lost their lives as a result, shot by police. So convinced are some that they cannot get justice at the ballot box, there is wild talk about setting up a breakaway republic. Until now, the idea of secession has never gained much traction in Kenya despite its complex ethnic mix.
Patrick Lumumba, director of the Kenya School of Law, says one should not lose faith. However messy, it is important that Kenyans work through this crisis, if necessary in the courts. He is right. But for millions of Kenyans who thought that elections were about candidates and votes, it is not an edifying process to watch.
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@KenGenKenya share price data and FY Earnings Release here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 2.50/- Closing Price: 8.65 Total Shares Issued: 6243873667.00 Market Capitalization: 54,009,507,220 EPS: 1.37 PE: 6.314
FY Electricity revenue 29.369b vs. 29.544b -0.592% FY Steam revenue 5.189b vs. 6.856b -24.314% FY Other income 882m vs. 2.210b -60.090% FY Revenue 35.440b vs. 38.610b FY Operating expenses [9.691b] vs. [8.948b] +8.304% FY Steam costs [2.796b] vs. [3.167b] -11.715% FY EBITDA 22.953b vs. 26.495b -13.369% FY EBIT 13.709b vs. 16.271b -15.746% FY Compensating tax vs. [2.431b] FY Finance costs [3.417b] vs. [3.132b] +9.100% FY Interest income 1.242b vs. 556m +123.381% FY Profit before tax 11.534b vs. 11.264b +2.397% FY Profit for the year 9.057b vs. 6.743b +34.317% Basic EPS 4.12 vs. 3.07 +34.202% Diluted EPS 1.37 vs. 1.08 +26.852% Total assets 377.197b vs. 367.249b +2.709% Cash and cash equivalents as at 30th June 7.831b vs. 6.756b +15.912% No dividend
KenGen announced FY 17 results this morning, reporting an EPS of KES 1.37, up 27% y/y EPS grew mainly on account of a lower effective tax ( 21% vs. 40% the year earlier) as well as reduced depreciation and amortization expenses (-10% yy) Profit before tax grew a marginal 2% yy to KES 11.5bn Electricity revenue was flat at KES 35.4bn due to reduced energy revenue following geothermal power evacuation constraints and hydro challenges over drought Steam revenue declined 24% yy on account of lack of income from commercial drilling services OpEx inflated 8% yy attributable to investment in capacity expansion. Interest income more than doubled to KES 1.2bn following investment of funds from the Rights Issue Finance costs rose 9% yy to KES 3.4bn Profit after tax settled at KES 9.1bn (+34% yy).
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