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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 30th of October 2017

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August 19 2013 I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days

Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why ‘The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history’, made possible by the
‘reversible escalator’ of the monsoon.’

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China’s dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US’
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st. [President Kenyatta probably posed the question to
Vladimir Putin, whether Russia felt it had a role to play in this
Energy Great Game in East Africa]. Therefore, the control of the
Indian Ocean becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be
shut down quite quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama’s
pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

Macro Thoughts

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Nasdaq Moonshot in one chart. Tech index hits fresh highs following blowout tech earnings. @Schuldensuehner

Home Thoughts

Its my Wife's Birthday today. I am grateful for every moment that she
has shared with me. Thank You Nishet.

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George Adamson

George Alexander Graham Adamson was born 3 February 1906 in Etawah,
India[2] to British parents. Educated at Dean Close School,
Cheltenham, England, he moved to Kenya in 1925. After a series of
jobs, which included time as a gold prospector, goat trader and
professional safari hunter,[3] he joined Kenya's game department in
1938[3] and was Senior Wildlife Warden of the Northern Frontier
District. Six years later, he married Joy.[3] It was in 1956 that he
raised the lioness cub, Elsa, whom he helped to release into the wild
and who became the subject of the 1966 feature film Born Free based on
the book written by Joy.

Adamson retired as a wildlife warden in 1961 and devoted himself to
raising lions who could not look after themselves and training them to
survive in the wild. In 1970, he moved to the Kora National Reserve in
northern Kenya to continue the rehabilitation of captive or orphaned
big cats for eventual reintroduction into the wild. George and Joy
separated in 1970, but continued to spend Christmas holidays together
until she was murdered on 3 January 1980.

On 20 August 1989, George Adamson was murdered near his camp in Kora
National Park, by Somali bandits, when he went to the rescue of his
assistant and a young European tourist in the Kora National Park. He
was 83 years old. He is buried in the Kora National Park near his
brother Terance, Super Cub, and Mugi a lion released in Kora after
George's death.[2]

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Robert Mueller Sends a Message: He's Deadly Serious New Yorker
Law & Politics

On Friday night, CNN reported that a grand jury in Washington, D.C.,
has approved the first charges arising from the special counsel Robert
Mueller’s investigation into possible collusion between Donald Trump’s
Presidential campaign and the Russian government. Citing “sources
briefed on the matter,” the network said that a judge had ordered the
charges kept under seal, but that at least one arrest could take place
as early as Monday.

Plausible as that theory sounds, it, too, is conjecture. What isn’t
speculation is the fact that, five months into his investigation,
Mueller has brought a first set of criminal charges. By the standards
of recent special prosecutors, that is fast work, and it confirms
Mueller’s reputation as someone who doesn’t like to dally. Now that he
has started arresting people, there is no reason to suppose he will
stop. And that is precisely the message he wants to send.

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05-DEC-2016 "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics

However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Don DeLillo,
who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy.  There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“ There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“ Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
 The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.

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05-DEC-2016 The first thing is plausible deniability.
Law & Politics

POTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support. Trump is
a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his
opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb
— were devastating and terminal.  The first thing is plausible

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05-DEC-2016 Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.
Law & Politics

He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents
can broadcast live and over the top. From feeding the hot-house
conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised
perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which
drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s,
what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.

Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries
are his information victims.

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No role for Assad in Syria's future - U.S.'s Tillerson Reuters UK
Law & Politics


Assad was the First Leader to repel the Regime Changers, in fact.

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How to defeat a dictator? Wait for them to screw up @bv
Law & Politics

With authoritarian rulers ascendant in many parts of the world, one
wonders what must happen for their countries to liberalize. The likes
of Vladimir Putin in Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey or Xi
Jinping in China are entrenched, experienced and not unpopular -- so
should their opponents simply resign themselves to an open-ended
period of illiberal rule?

According to Daniel Treisman, a UCLA political scientist, that's not
necessarily the case. For a recent paper, he analyzed 218 episodes of
democratization between 1800 and 2015 and found they were, with some
exceptions (such as Danish King Frederick VII's voluntary acceptance
of a constitution in 1848), the result of authoritarian rulers'
mistakes in seeking to hold on to power. The list of these errors is
both a useful handbook for authoritarians and a useful reminder that
even the most capable of them are fallible, with disastrous
consequences for their regimes.

According to Treisman, deliberate liberalization -- whether to
forestall a revolution, motivate people to fight a foreign invader,
defeat competing elite groups or make a pact with them -- only
occurred in up to a third of the cases. In the rest, democratization
was an accident: As they set off a chain of events, rulers didn't
intend to relinquish power. Some of them -- such as Mikhail Gorbachev,
the last Soviet president -- have admitted as much.

Hubris: An authoritarian ruler underestimates the opposition's
strength and fails to compromise or suppress it before it's too late.
King Louis Philippe of France was deposed in 1848 after, as Treisman
puts it, turning "a series of reform banquets into revolution by
refusing even mild concessions." Romanian Communist dictator Nicolae
Ceausescu was making a routine speech when he realized he was being
overthrown. Indonesian President Muhammad Suharto believed he could
get the country under control right up to the moment of his
Needless risk: A ruler calls a vote which he "fails to manipulate
sufficiently" (like Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet in 1988, when he
lost a plebiscite on whether he should be allowed to stay in power) or
starts a war he cannot win (like Leopoldo Galtieri in Argentina with
the Falklands conflict of 1982).
Slippery slope: That's Gorbachev's case: a ruler starts reforms to
prop up the regime but ends up undermining it.
Trusting a traitor: This is not always a mistake made by the dictator
itself, although it was in the case of Francisco Franco in Spain, who
chose King Juan Carlos, the dismantler of fascism, as his successor.
In Gorbachev's case, it was the Politburo -- the regime's elite --
that picked the wrong man to preserve its power.
Counterproductive violence: Not suppressing the opposition when
necessary can be a sign of hubris in a dictator, but overreacting is
also a grave mistake. The example Treisman gives is Bangladeshi
President Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who was forced to resign by an
uprising that started after police shot an opposition activist at a
rally. But the error was also made by Ukrainian President Viktor
Yanukovych in 2013, when his riot police descended on a few hundred
peacefully protesting students and brutally beat them, setting off the
much bigger protests that resulted in Yanukovych's ouster.
These are all very human errors of judgment. Dictators are people,
too, and sometimes they'll act on imperfect information or erroneous
gut feeling. But Treisman makes the point that they may be prone to
such errors precisely because they are dictators. They'll be fooled by
polls which people don't answer sincerely, taken in by their own
propaganda (like Malawi ruler Hastings Banda, who called and lost a
referendum in 1993 because he'd been impressed by the high turnout at
rallies in his support even though people had been forced to attend
them). And sometimes they'll rule for so long that their mental
faculties will be less sharp than at the outset.

Treisman notes that in 85 percent of the episodes he studied,
democratization was preceded by mass unrest. Sooner or later, people
tend to get tired of regimes in which they have little say. Then, it
only takes a misstep from the one person at the center of such a
regime. Dictators often overestimate the external danger to their
power, the plots of foreign or exiled enemies. In the final analysis,
they are the biggest threat to themselves.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1616
Dollar Index 94.77
Japan Yen 113.62
Swiss Franc 0.9974
Pound 1.3146
Aussie 0.7677
India Rupee 64.895
South Korea Won 1124.08
Brazil Real 3.2366
Egypt Pound 17.6435
South Africa Rand 14.1044

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Last Year's Big Bond Winners Aren't Looking So Fantastic Now
Emerging Markets

That’s because last year’s best emerging-market dollar bond bets are
posting the starkest reversals. Venezuela, Ecuador and Gabon, which
led the pack in 2016, had some of the worst changes, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg on debt from 69 developing nations. Meanwhile,
last year’s laggards, Mozambique and Suriname, have had the best

Frontier Markets

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The Business of Fear in Boomtown Mogadishu Der Spiegel

The first courses had just been served when the war came to the
country club in Mogadishu. Fifty guests, including businesspeople and
government officials, were sitting at long tables laden with bowls of
camel stew, goat meat, lobster and swordfish. When a van filled with
explosives detonated in front of the gate, the resulting explosion
demolished part of the protective wall, blew the second floor right
off the villa and destroyed the building's entire front.

Four attackers then fired at the country club's security staff with
assault rifles and, when they returned fired, stormed a nearby
restaurant. By the time the last fighter was finally shot dead 12
hours later, three gunmen and 16 guests had been killed.

Six weeks later, no traces of the attack remain. It is a Monday
morning, and Manar Moalin is waiting for her guests. Standing on a
turret by the entrance, the 33-year-old with red lipstick and golden
eyeshadow watches as an armored vehicle drives around the concrete
barriers while the heavily armed security guards in front of her
country club relax in the shade and chew khat.

A wall of sand and cement 2.5 meters (8 feet) thick now protects the
club while the villa is once again resplendent in fresh white. Coconut
palms and rubber trees hem in two open-walled huts covered in palm
fronds. Mogadishu's country club is a cross between a palace, a
fortress and a wooden shack, but above all else it is a refuge for
high-ranking government officials, businesspeople and the city's
wealthy. It is perhaps the weirdest place in Mogadishu, capital of the
most failed of states. For 27 years, the country has made due without
a government able to exert its control across all parts of the country
- and it has been at war for three decades.

Warlords and dubious businessmen are in power here, in addition to
al-Shabaab, the al-Qaida allies who are responsible for the deaths of
4,200 people in the past year alone. The recent attack in mid-October,
in which over 300 people died, has also been attributed to the terror
group. And yet Mogadishu is booming. The city is a metropolis of fear,
its business model is chaos.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the first non-African head of state to visit
the capital in almost two decades. Turkish companies tarred the roads,
established a hospital and built an airport that is being run by a
Turkish company named Favori LLC ,which is suspected within the U.N.
of having ties to Erdogan's son. A Turkish company runs the harbor.

According to studies, Somalia might sit on top of enormous oil
reserves and the Turks could be looking to make money off of them. For
this reason, it also makes sense that Turkey is building a military
base on the outskirts of Mogadishu. In diplomacy circles, people claim
that a thousand Somali soldiers are to be trained there every year and
would remain under Turkish control. According to confidential U.N.
reports, Turkish Airlines is regularly flying in coffers of money that
go to the president's office and high-ranking politicians, and are
meant to guarantee security and a free hand for the Turks.

The Turks, says Manar Moalin, are taking over the country.

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Mozambique's president dismisses head of intelligence and army chief

Mozambique has fired its head of intelligence and army chief of staff,
two weeks after 16 people were killed in attacks in the north of the
country, the presidency said on Tuesday.

President Filipe Nyusi of Mozambique speaks at a high-level meeting on
addressing large movements of refugees and migrants at the United
Nations General Assembly in Manhattan, New York, U.S. September 19,
2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Lagos Lidimo was dismissed as director general of information and
state security service; he will be replaced by Julio Jane, previously
the commander of police, Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi said in a
statement. Graça Chongo has been dismissed as army chief, with no
replacement named.

The presidency did not provide reasons for the dismissals, which were
effective immediately.

Earlier this month, police and unidentified gunmen clashed in the
Indian Ocean port of Mocimboa da Praia, leaving 16 people dead, two of
them police officers.

The motive for the attacks was not clear. Local media have reported
that the attack was carried out by Islamists, but the government has
not confirmed that.

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Pastoralism and its future IRIN

In dryland areas across the world, tens of millions of people raise
domesticated animals on open rangeland. Extreme variations in weather
mean such pastoralists have to be highly adaptive and deploy a range
of specialised skills. Climate change is making this way of life
increasingly precarious.

Pastoralism is a type of livelihood in which income and social status
depend mostly on livestock grazed on communal open rangeland where the
availability of nutrients and water vary greatly over both time and

In other words, pastoralists are herders (mostly of cows, sheep, goats
and camels, but also of yaks, horses, llamas, alpacas, reindeer and
vicunas) who are frequently on the move in inherently unstable

This defining characteristic of pastoralism is known as “strategic
mobility.” It’s “strategic” because, while appearing aimless or
haphazard to the untrained eye, its motive is to enhance production
and herd size by ensuring livestock consumes the most nutritional
grass available.

When this mobility takes the form of regular back-and-forth trips
between the same departure and destination areas, it is known as
“transhumance”, whereas “nomadism” describes journeys that vary
according to the location of the best resources.

Pastoralism is therefore a very specialised system that requires
extensive social networks and deep knowledge – honed over centuries –
of weather patterns, breeding techniques, herd management, and the
intricate characteristics of different species of animal and

Put in economic terms, pastoralism is a complex exercise in the
perpetual analysis and management of costs, risks, and benefits. But
what is being tested now more than ever is the ability of pastoralists
to constantly adapt to changing circumstances.

Yet the contributions pastoralist systems make to national economies
are frequently considerable: As well as supplying meat and milk to
growing urban populations, they often provide jobs in the transport
and food sectors, for example.

Estimates of the total number of people living a pastoral livelihood
vary widely. A 2006 study published by the Food and Agriculture
Organization put the number at 120 million, which includes some people
who also grow crops (known as “agro-pastoralists”). Of these, 50
million are in sub-Saharan Africa, 31 million in the Middle East and
North Africa, 25 million in Central Asia, 10 million in South Asia,
and five million in South and Central America.

Not long after the FAO published its study the International Fund for
Agricultural Development said there were 200 million pastoralists in
the world.

A 2007 estimate put the number of animals raised in pastoral
production systems in Kenya alone at 14.1 million, with a value of
$860 million.

In Kenya's Turkana County alone, drought has killed an estimated half
million head of livestock

Pastoral lands have also shrunk because of the increase in
conservation areas, mechanised agriculture, irrigation schemes and
bio-fuel plantations.

Seven years ago, the AU published a major policy framework for
pastoralism in Africa, warning that its sustainability faced a range
of emerging threats, such as “demographic trends, protracted
conflicts, reduced access to grazing land and water, and in some
regions, climatic changes.

“Some pastoral areas are known for increasing levels of destitution
and food insecurity, and the impacts of drought are worsening,” it

Drought depletes all the resources on which pastoralists depend:
water, pasture, livestock health, milk, meat, and crop yields.

IRIN’s recent reporting shows the effects in the Kenyan county of
Turkana, where more than 90 percent of the 1.3 million inhabitants
live in extreme poverty and where a prolonged drought has killed
hundreds of thousands of head of livestock by critically reducing the
availability of pasture and water.

The discovery of oil in Turkana has led to the construction of large
exploration sites that have impeded the essential mobility of
pastoralists there.

Without the right kind of investment, as herder Peter Ikaru told IRIN
in Turkana, “all that will be here in 100 years is drought and

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'He is a gangster like us': New book reveals Zuma's 'darkest secret' @SundayTimesZA

This is an exclusive extract from Jacques Pauw’s ‘The President’s
Keepers’, which delves into a world of lethal criminals: the men who
keep this toxic president in power

My sources tell me that by May 2015 Zuma had still not submitted his
returns. They also gave a fascinating account of an incident in early
2011 when a "donation for Nkandla" arrived on a private jet at King
Shaka International Airport outside Durban. When customs inspected the
cargo, they found, among other things, medical equipment on board. The
shipment originated in Russia and the sender was a man by the name of
Vladimir Strzhalkovsky.

An internet search revealed that Strzhalkovsky is a former KGB agent
who joined the ranks of post-communist Russia's oligarchs and became
one of the biggest businessmen in that country. He is the former CEO
of Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest nickel and palladium producer.
Strzhalkovsky received a R1.4-billion payout in 2012 to step down from
Norilsk Nickel.

Running a country is more difficult than fighting for freedom

My sources told me that the medical equipment on board the aeroplane
was a mobile clinic for Nkandla. SARS impounded the equipment because
it didn't have the required clearance certificates and documents.
Vivian Reddy, Zuma benefactor and friend, contacted SARS commissioner
Oupa Magashula, insisting they release the shipment without following
due process. Strzhalkovsky was due to visit South Africa where he
would present the clinic to Zuma at Nkandla. Magashula refused to

Enter the minister of state security, Siyabonga Cwele. He informed
Magashula that the cargo on board Strzhalkovsky's plane concerned
"state security" and that his agents were taking control of the
shipment. Magashula relented because national security overrode the
customs laws of SARS.

At the end of March 2011, the Russian multinational Norilsk Nickel
said in a press statement that Vladimir Strzhalkovsky had visited
Jacob Zuma and had handed the president a Russian mobile telemedicine
laboratory at Nkandla. Siyabonga Cwele was present at the ceremony.

Norilsk said in its statement: "Jakob [sic] Zuma expressed high
opinion of the Company's current projects in the country. He
emphasized that South Africa is ready to proceed with supporting the
participation of Norilsk Nickel in new ore extraction and processing
projects in South Africa."

"But that is not the end of it," said my source. "The medical
equipment wasn't all that SARS detained on that day at the airport."

"What else?"

"There was also a lot of cash on that plane. A lot.

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Treasury said the deficit was likely to reach 4.3 percent of gross domestic product in the 2017/18 fiscal year

Treasury said the deficit was likely to reach 4.3 percent of gross
domestic product in the 2017/18 fiscal year, which began in April. It
had previously estimated a deficit of 3.1 percent.

The projected deficit would be the highest since 2009. Economists
polled by Reuters had forecast 3.9 percent.

“The period ahead is not going to be an easy one,” Finance Minister
Malusi Gigaba said in his budget speech to parliament. “Following
several years of expenditure restraint, further budget cuts will
involve hard choices and difficult compromises.”

The rand fell to its lowest in 10 months against the dollar in
response and bonds weakened. South Africa’s sovereign dollar bonds
also fell.

“More worrying for markets, however, was the minister’s admission that
the deficit will remain essentially stable over the coming three
years,” Capital Economics Africa economist John Ashbourne said.

Weak growth has stymied the government’s ability to generate revenue
and lower its gross debt, which is expected to rise by nearly 1
trillion rand in the next three years, to 59.7 percent of GDP.

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"Forget the numbers, the gist of the budget is this: technocrats painted a realistic and precarious state of public finances, but said they can't do anything."

RMB Global Markets said in a note. “Forget the numbers, the gist of
the budget is this: technocrats painted a realistic and precarious
state of public finances, but said they can’t do anything.”

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Rand Traders Brace for a Rocky Ride Over Next Two Months

The South African rand’s price swings are set to increase over the
next two months as the ruling African National Congress prepares to
replace President Jacob Zuma as party leader during a Dec. 16-20
conference. Two-month implied volatility for the currency against the
dollar surged to the highest in more than 11 months on Thursday, a day
after Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba rattled markets with a bleak
budget speech. At 20 percent, it’s by far the highest among major
emerging currencies, with Turkey’s lira next at 13 percent.

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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.1173

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6435


Barrick is getting hammered


"Proportionate to population we have a world record number of
imbeciles" - Wole Soyinka on frustration w #Nigeria @davidpilling


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +35.68% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +39.25% 2017


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Fish feeding in the evening. Jumeirah Vittaveli, Maldives | Photo by miskasitka


President Kenyatta: Largely, 90% of the country is calm, is peaceful,
is voting  #Decision2017

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30-OCT-2017 :: Finding the Path Back to Political Equilibrium. @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy

President Kenyatta has won more than 97 percent of votes counted so
far according to the media. Turnout has been estimated to be around 35
percent. Deputy president William Ruto sought to wield the Political
Guillotine and tweeted “Evidently it doesn’t matter how
powerful/popular one or their party imagines to be, the repeat
elections confirm the PEOPLE ARE SUPREME”  I, for one, believe that
the President won the first iteration of the election and that the
Supreme Court whilst striking a blow for transparency and
constitutionality failed entirely to weigh the consequences of their
decision and to provide a Road-Map. However, what is clear is that we
have now been overtaken by events and that the current political
situation is one of disequilibrium.

Finding the Path back to Political Equilibrium [a state in which
opposing forces or influences are balanced. "the maintenance of social
equilibrium" synonyms:balance, symmetry, equipoise, parity, equality;
stability "the equilibrium of the economy" antonyms: imbalance "I
stumbled over a rock and recovered my equilibrium"] is now the central
question and in fact a sine qua non for the Economy, which has slowed
dramatically and where we need to absolutely avoid ''cliff-edge''

The Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) said that the four-month
electioneering period had cost the country $7 billion in losses.
Investors at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) have lost $2.27
billion over the past four weeks. We are growing at the slowest pace
in 6 years. Anecdotal evidence is speaking to an average of 25%-30%
year on year Turnover slump across Kenya Inc. Economic Indicators are
blinking amber.

I came across this comment from Eric Chitayi, a security guard in
Kisumu in a Maggie Fick Reuters report

“People from this region are feeling isolated from the rest of the
country, We are feeling disconnected.”

In his marvellous book The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell talks about
three different archetypes of people: mavens, connectors, and
salespeople. The Connectors according to Malcolm Gladwell make change
happen through people. They galvanize people.They’re natural hubs.
That’s just the way they’re oriented to the world.

President Kenyatta is a mercurial and popular Politician. I recall a
quote from someone speaking about President Bill Clinton who described
meeting him thus;

''President Clinton locked onto you and made you feel like you were
the only person in the room.''

President Kenyatta has a similar political style and charisma. He will
be the President of Kenya a nation of more than 40m Citizens. The
Political reality and in fact his legacy is now going to be calibrated
on how he reconnects People like Eric Chitayi.

Everyone is a Shareholder in this Kenya Inc Enterprise or as Marshall
McLuhan once said

''There are no passengers on spaceship earth [read Kenya]  We are all crew''

This is a Political imperative, the reconnection of 40m Kenyans to
Spaceship Kenya, without which we are going to continue sputtering.

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Kenya's fresh election is preposterously flawed Economist
Kenyan Economy

When Mr Odinga withdrew, it seemed like a last roll of the dice.
Although the IEBC made plenty of errors in the tallying and
transmission of votes, there is little proof that the election in
August was rigged, as Mr Odinga claims. Short of the cash needed to
continue campaigning, Mr Odinga’s boycott seems to have been a
desperate attempt to avoid an election he would probably have lost

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"People don't care who wins," Mwinamo said in an interview at the Gatina Pentecostal Assemblies of God church in Kawangware
Kenyan Economy

“People don’t care who wins,” Mwinamo said in an interview at the
Gatina Pentecostal Assemblies of God church in Kawangware, a
litter-strewn maze of wood and metal shacks in west Nairobi, the
capital. “All they want is a united Kenya. Most of the people are
suffering -- they are skipping meals. There is a lot of poverty and

The turmoil has weighed on investors, with the Nairobi Securities
Exchange All Share Index dropping 5.5 percent since the election
outcome was declared void on Sept. 1 and the government’s
international bonds due in 2024 climbing 30 basis points to 6.32
percent. Slum dwellers in Nairobi and the western city of Kisumu, most
of whom eke out a living as hawkers or doing part-time jobs, have been
hard hit by a slowdown in spending and hiring.

“It is high time we as Kenyans stop following politics,” Wanja Wakoba,
37, said in an interview at her electronics shop in Nairobi.
“Politicians have not helped us, they just drag us down. Let them deal
with their issues and let us deal with how to carry on with our

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"All we know is that there will be no elections. As to how this will be done, we are waiting for the big announcement by Baba (Odinga) tomorrow"
Kenyan Economy

“All we know is that there will be no elections. As to how this will
be done, we are waiting for the big announcement by Baba (Odinga)
tomorrow,” said one demonstrator, market trader James Ouma.

Undrar just hur högt valdeltagandet blir i #Kenya, text från
@dagensnyheter :


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Treasury revenue falls short Sh51bn
Kenyan Economy

Government revenue fell Sh51.41 billion in the first three months of
the current financial year as the Treasury struggled to tap cash from
the domestic bond auctions and secure international loans.
Total revenue into government coffers dropped to Sh408.14 billion in
the July-September period, down from Sh459.55 billion a year earlier,
even as demand for cash to fund government obligations, including last
Thursday’s repeat presidential poll and related security measures,
The fall in revenue was largely on account of a Sh37.22 billion dip in
net domestic debt to Sh46.82 billion from Sh84.04 billion in the same
period last financial year.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) raised Sh49.76 billion out of the Sh90
billion the Treasury was looking for in the bond market, representing
a bid acceptance rate of 55.27 per cent.

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"Kenya is the great hope for investors in Africa as a non-commodity producing country"
Kenyan Economy

“Kenya is the great hope for investors in Africa as a non-commodity
producing country, which has the potential to industrialize ahead of
its peers, with money going into railways, roads and ports,” said
Daniel Salter, head of equity strategy at Renaissance Capital.

“It is a country that investors want to like, but what they don’t like
is the current uncertainty.”

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.@CocaCola to invest up to $90 mln in Kenya to broaden product range
Kenyan Economy

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Coca-Cola Co plans to invest up to $90 million in
Kenya over the three years through 2018 to increase its product range
in the region’s biggest economy, the soft drinks maker said on

A labourer walks past crates of soda inside a Coca Cola processing
plant in Kenya's capital Nairobi, file. REUTERS/Noor Khamis
Coca-Cola, which is the leader in the Kenyan soda market with brands
like Coke and Fanta, has committed to invest $17 billion in Africa as
a whole since 2014, double what was invested in the continent a decade
before, the company said.

The group, which faces growing competition in Kenya from other soft
drinks producers like SABmiller and PepsiCo, said on Tuesday it will
produce a wider range of soft drinks in the country from 2018 but did
not give details.

“It brings the total investment by The Coca-Cola Company in Kenya,
between 2016 and 2018, to $90 million,” Coca-Cola said in a statement.

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N.S.E Today

The Crude Oil Price rallied 4.7% last week to a 2 Year High and Brent
Crude crossed $60.00 a barrel.
Low Oil Prices have proved a boon for Kenya, it would be unfortunate
if this reversed.
The Shilling strengthened to 103.60/80 per dollar, compared with
103.75/95 at Friday’s close.
Bloomberg reported Shoprite Holdings Ltd. is in talks to open its
first stores in Kenya by filling retail space left empty by Nakumatt.
“We are currently in talks with some of the property owners but
nothing has been signed,” Shoprite director Gerhard Fritz said in an
emailed response to questions.
Taking over vacated outlets would be the preferred way for the Cape
Town-based company to enter East Africa’s largest economy as the
retail market there is “too well established” to build new stores,
said Fritz, who runs Shoprite’s African operations outside its home
According to Business Daily 19 landlords are suing Nakumatt for Sh600m
rent arrears.
The IEBC is set to declare Uhuru Kenyatta validly elected president at
3.30pm, pronouncing that pending elections in 4 counties won’t change
the final result
The market will respond positively to this political Guillotine.
The Nairobi All Share firmed +0.24 points to close at 160.11
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied +26.53 points to close at 3674.84
Equity Turnover was lacklustre at 291.031 but interestingly There was
a significant and visible demand side Build Up.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed unchanged at 25.25 and traded 2.042m shares. I expect
a ramp higher to all time highs in short order.

IATA forecast that the African aviation market will post a compounded
growth rate of 5.9 per cent every year.  “All indicators lead to a
growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for
a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years,” IATA’s director
general and chief executive Alexandre de Juniac said in a statement.
Kenya Airways responded bullishly to this IATA forecast and rallied
+5.94% to close at 5.35 a 16 week high and trad

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

KCB Group announced that it had secured a $100 million loan from the
(AfDB) for onward lending to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs)
in the region. KCB which had served up a total Return of  +47.82%
through tis morning corrected -0.64% to close at 38.25 and was the
most actively traded share at the Exchange trading 3.055m shares worth
116.912m and some 40.00% of the total turnover transacted at the
Securities Exchange today.
Equity Bank firmed +0.689% to close at 36.50 and was trading at
session highs of 37.50 +3.45% at the Finish Line. Equity Bank traded
Barclays Bank rallied +3.27% to close at 9.45 and There were 9 Buyers
for every Seller signalling this upward thrust has legs through 10.00.

Jubilee Insurance was low-ticked -9.92% to close at 445.00 on the
grand total of 200 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenGen closed unchanged at 8.70 and traded 303,900 shares.
KPLC rallied +4.48% to close at 10.50 a 2 month high and was trading
at 10.95 +8.96% session highs at the Final Bell. KPLC traded 65,700
shares with Supply very thin.

EABL traded 141,900 shares at an unchanged 245.00.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2017

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