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Monday 02nd of September 2019 |
The @federalreserve Shouldn't Enable @realDonaldTrump @economics Africa |
U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook. This manufactured disaster-in-the-making presents the Federal Reserve with a dilemma: Should it mitigate the damage by providing offsetting stimulus, or refuse to play along? If the ultimate goal is a healthy economy, the Fed should seriously consider the latter approach. The Fed’s monetary policy makers typically take what happens outside their realm as a given, and then make the adjustments needed to pursue their goals of stable prices and maximum employment. They place little weight on how their actions will affect decisions in other areas, such as government spending or trade policy. The Fed, for example, wouldn’t hold back on interest-rate cuts to compel Congress to provide fiscal stimulus instead. Staying above the political fray helps the central bank maintain its independence. So, according to conventional wisdom, if Trump’s trade war with China hurts the U.S. economic outlook, the Fed should respond by adjusting monetary policy accordingly — in this case by cutting interest rates. But what if the Fed’s accommodation encourages the president to escalate the trade war further, increasing the risk of a recession? The central bank’s efforts to cushion the blow might not be merely ineffectual. They might actually make things worse. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted that he is aware of the problem. At the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole last week, he noted that monetary policy cannot “provide a settled rulebook for international trade.” I see this as a veiled reference to the trade war, and a warning that the Fed’s tools are not well suited to mitigate the damage. Yet the Fed could go much further. Officials could state explicitly that the central bank won’t bail out an administration that keeps making bad choices on trade policy, making it abundantly clear that Trump will own the consequences of his actions. Such a harder line could benefit the Fed and the economy in three ways. First, it would discourage further escalation of the trade war, by increasing the costs to the Trump administration. Second, it would reassert the Fed’s independence by distancing it from the administration’s policies. Third, it would conserve much-needed ammunition, allowing the Fed to avoid further interest-rate cuts at a time when rates are already very low by historical standards. I understand and support Fed officials’ desire to remain apolitical. But Trump’s ongoing attacks on Powell and on the institution have made that untenable. Central bank officials face a choice: enable the Trump administration to continue down a disastrous path of trade war escalation, or send a clear signal that if the administration does so, the president, not the Fed, will bear the risks — including the risk of losing the next election. There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview. After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives. If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.
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The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in Africa |
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”. He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command: “We have a deviate, Tomahawk.” “We copy. There’s a voice.” “We have gross oscillation here.” “There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.” “We are clearing an outframe to locate source.” “Thank you, Colorado.” “It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.” “It was a voice,” I told them. “We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.” The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”. “Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”
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"Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield" Africa |
“Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another paradox: What is soft is strong,” Lao Tzu
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"Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature a Dark Secret" P 206 Imaginary Homelands @SalmanRushdie Africa |
“Meaning is a shaky edifice we build out of scraps, dogmas, childhood injuries, newspaper articles, chance remarks, old fillms, small victories, people hated, people loved; perhaps it is because our sense of what is the case is constructed from such inadequate materials that we defend it so fiercely, even to death.” ― Salman Rushdie, Imaginary Homelands: Essays and Criticism 1981-1991
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So here's where we are: @MatthewdAncona Law & Politics |
1. So here’s where we are: Johnson’s authority is made of balsa. He depends upon the taxpayer-purchased votes of the DUP and the support of his own parliamentary party, many of whom want much more than the backstop excised from May’s deal.... 2. He is only in office at all because of the decision taken by the tiny selectorate of Tory members. His mandate is constitutionally sound but politically frangible. BUT...
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Americans' View of the Current Economy Is the Highest in 19 Years @markets International Trade |
U.S. consumer confidence declined in August by less than forecast as Americans’ assessment of current conditions climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years, helped by a job market that remains robust. The Conference Board’s index eased to 135.1 this month from a revised 135.8, according to data from the New York-based group Tuesday that exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge of views on the present situation jumped to 177.2, the highest since November 2000, the expectations index decreased. “While other parts of the economy may show some weakening, consumers have remained confident and willing to spend,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “However, if the recent escalation in trade and tariff tensions persists, it could potentially dampen consumers’ optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook.”
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@KenyaAirways reports H1 2019 Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 2.65 Total Shares Issued: 5681616931.00 Market Capitalization: 15,056,284,867 EPS: -1.01 PE: -2.624
Kenya Airways PLC H1 2019 results through 30th June 2019 vs. 30th June 2018 H1 Total income 58.550b vs. 52.193b +12.180% H1 Total operating costs [61.454b] vs. [53.218b] -15.476% H1 Operating Loss [2.904b] vs. [1.025b] -183.317% H1 Other costs [5.684b] vs. [2.990b] -90.100% H1 Loss before income tax [8.562b] vs. [3.992b] -114.479% H1 Income tax [expenses]/ credit [1m] vs. [43m] -97.674% H1 Loss for the period [8.563b] vs. [4.035b] -112.218% Basic loss per share [1.47] vs. [0.69] -113.043% Diluted loss per share [1.14] vs. [0.54] -111.111% Total Equity [16.184b] Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 4.229b vs. 5.964b -29.091% COMMENTARY On behalf of the board of Directors, I hereby present the Kenya Airways PLC financial results for the six months period ended 30 June 2019. I would like to point out that in turning around Kenya Airways, a deliberate decision was taken not to shrink the business but instead improve financial performance through strategic investments on growth opportunities. Some of these investments may deny KQ and its shareholders an immediate return but are expected to yield positive results in the future. In cognisance of these long-term investments, the Group has recorded a loss before tax of Kshs 8,562 million compared to Kshs 3,992 million reported in the same period in 2018. Some of these losses can be attributed to the return in to KQ service of two Boeing 787's that were on sub-lease to Oman Air, investment in new routes and adoption of the new International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS 16). IFRS 16 which came into effect in January 2019, replacing IAS 17, recognises operating leases as assets in financial statements and enables comparability between companies that lease assets and those that outrightly purchase assets. Revenues The Group's total revenues increased by 12% to Kshs. 58,550 million. The growth was due to improved passenger, cargo and other revenue streams that were mainly driven by the positive performance of recently introduced routes These results include revenues from routes such as New York, Libreville, Mogadishu which were opened in the second half on 2018. As a result, the Airline recorded a 6.6% increase in passenger numbers to hit 2.4 million. Passenger revenue grew 5.8% to Kshs. 42,597 million. Despite the increase in revenues, we continue to register lower yields attributed increased competitive environment, major currency fluctuations as well as a tough local macro-economic environment. Costs: The Group saw a 15.9 % rise in operating costs. The increase was mainly attributed to the return of two Boeing 787s that had been sub-leased to Oman Air and fuel costs which marginally increased by 5% due to increased flying. The airline, however benefitted from its fuel hedging program. Based on the above revenue and cost dynamics, the Group recorded an Operating loss Margin of 5.6%. Other operating highlights: During the first half, KQ continued its network expansion drive, opening the key strategic routes - Rome, Geneva and Malindi and increasing frequencies to other key destinations. The New York City Route which was launched in October 2013 has shown a positive passenger uptake. The growth in passenger numbers is highly attributed to codeshare agreements that enable passengers to connect to other destinations in the US. Outlook The global economic and geopolitical context remains uncertain, while Kenya Airways continues to operate in a highly competitive environment. The Group continues to invest in improvement of operations, efficient network growth and improvement of service quality and delivery. In the next half year, the Board and Management are working on a fleet refinancing program, which once completed will improve the Group's cashflow. The impact of this program on the Group's financials will be announced to the public once the program is approved for implementation. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I take this opportunity to express my sincere appreciation to our customers, the Government of Kenya, shareholders, management, staff, suppliers and other stakeholders for their continued support. Michael Joseph Chairman
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