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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 19th of August 2020
 


Since August 2018, the pattern in $GOLD has been clear. @AdamMancini4 1988.50 [Target Fresh ATH]
Commodities

Rally 20%+, consolidate for several weeks (during which the narrative turns more bearish & accumulation occurs) then rally again. We just finished a 20% leg. Now we're consolidating, next should be a new leg up to $2300

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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance



Conclusions



Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell

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Bamako where celebrations are underway after the leader of a possible coup d'état announced arresting President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and his Prime Minister Boubou Cisse @SomaliGuardian
Law & Politics


BREAKING: Scenes from #Mali’s capital, #Bamako where celebrations are underway after the leader of a possible coup d'état announced arresting President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and his Prime Minister Boubou Cisse, following weeks of protests demanding their resignation.



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Gunfire was heard on Tuesday at an army base outside Mail’s capital Bamako as the Norwegian Embassy and a security source said a possible military mutiny was under way. @ReutersAfrica
Law & Politics


A source who handles security for non-governmental organisations in Mali said gunfire had also been heard near the prime minister’s office.

“The embassy has been notified of a mutiny in the Armed Forces and troops are on their way to Bamako. Norwegians should exercise caution and preferably stay at home until the situation is clear,” the Norwegian Embassy said in an alert to its citizens.

“Yes, mutiny. The military has taken up arms,” a security source said.

A military spokesman confirmed that gunshots were fired at the base in Kati, but said he did not have any further information.

Opponents of the current president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, have led mass protests since June calling on Keita to resign over what they say are his failures to restore security and address corruption.

At least 14 people have been killed in the protests, according to the United Nations and human rights activists.

Regional powers are worried that any prolonged unrest from the protests could derail the fight against Islamist militants in the region, many of whom are centered in Mali. 

Their presence has rendered large areas of the centre and north of Mali ungovernable.

Keita had hoped that concessions to opponents and recommendations from a mediating delegation of regional leaders would help stem the tide of dissatisfaction.

In a message to its citizens on Thursday morning, the French Embassy in Bamako said: “Because of serious unrest this morning, Aug. 18, in the city of Bamako, it is immediately recommended to remain at home.”

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Low per capita GDP suggests we’ll see more of this in Francophone Africa in the 2020s @RencapMan
Africa

One of the interesting take-aways from Max Siollun’s work on military coups in 20th century Nigeria is how popular they often were. Sounds similar in #Mali. Low per capita GDP suggests we’ll see more of this in Francophone Africa in the 2020s

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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa

What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

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‘We are in the midst of the pandemic,’ chancellor says. @Schuldensuehner
Misc.

Good Morning from #Germany where Chancellor Merkel rules out any further loosening of virus measures as Europe’s largest econ recorded biggest increase in coronavirus cases in nearly 4mths on Tue. ‘We are in the midst of the pandemic,’ chancellor says. 

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The bounce off the bottom was always going to look like a V-shaped recovery, but that was never going to last. High frequency data shows the recovery is losing steam h/t @SoberLook @economistmeg
World Of Finance

The bounce off the bottom was always going to look like a V-shaped recovery, but that was never going to last. High frequency data shows the recovery is losing steam. Even more so in the US, where we built half a bridge to the other side but didn’t build the rest.

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.1940

Dollar Index 92.269

Japan Yen 105.50

Swiss Franc 0.9027

Pound 1.3260

Aussie 0.7249

India Rupee 74.7838

South Korea Won 1181.39

Brazil Real 5.4674

Egypt Pound 15.9192

South Africa Rand 17.2845

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Here is another depiction of USD dynamics this year. @jnordvig
World Currencies

All the currencies to the right have strong 'mirror effect'. Size of initial weakness strongly correlated with size of subsequent recovery. But on the left, the EM high-yielders failed participate in the bounce. Asymmetry...

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South Africa #COVID19 UPDATE 18 AUG • 14,677 tests conducted. Daily test positivity rate = 15.4%
Africa


• Active cases = 94,412 Chart with downwards trend

• 7,797 additional recoveries today

• 2,258 new cases. Daily doubling rate = 181 days

• 14,677 tests conducted. Daily test positivity rate = 15.4%

• 282 more deaths

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Wynand du Toit’s safari camp in South Africa’s Pilanesberg National Park lies abandoned, its tents ripped open by baboons and its survival in the balance after his insurer rejected his COVID-19 claim. @ReutersAfrica
Africa



South African insurers argue their policies were designed to cover closures following an outbreak of disease to allow mitigation measures such as deep cleaning, but not national lockdowns. They say the payments on offer are their attempt to do right by clients.

“The interim relief measures are there to assist policyholders as much as the individual insurers can, pending the legal certainty process,” said Viviene Pearson, head of the South African Insurance Association.


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Magistrate Ngoni Nduna rules that lawyer Beatrice Mtetwa stands down from representing journalist Hopewell Chin'ono @zimlive
Law & Politics

Magistrate Ngoni Nduna rules that lawyer Beatrice Mtetwa stands down from representing journalist Hopewell Chin'ono and directs that the Law Society of Zimbabwe should cancel her licence for "scandalising the court"

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Zimbabwe Stocks Slide 21% After Resumption as Foreigners Flee @markets
Africa



Zimbabwe’s benchmark stock index has slid by 21% since the government allowed trading to resume just over two weeks ago, with traders attributing the slump to foreign investors cutting their holdings.

The Zimbabwe Industrial Index had surged almost 700% in 2020 before trading was halted on June 26 by authorities who blamed dealing in stocks for contributing to a plunge in the local currency. 

The government said shares of Old Mutual Ltd., PPC Ltd. and Seedco Ltd., which have listings outside the country, were being used to manipulate foreign-exchange rates. They remain suspended.


The slump since the Harare exchange’s Aug. 3 resumption is “driven particularly by foreign selling post the market suspension,” said Lloyd Mlotshwa, head of equities at Harare-based IH Securities, coupled with low liquidity. 

“There’s very little currency locally to absorb the stocks, so prices inevitably get hammered.”

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21-JAN-2019 :: Its the End Game in Harare #ZimbabweanLivesMatter
Africa



I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money;

“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”


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Equity Group Holdings Ltd reports HY 2020 Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment



Par Value:                  0.50/-

Closing Price:           28.10

Total Shares Issued:          3773674802.00

Market Capitalization:        106,040,261,936

EPS:             5.93

PE:                 4.739

  

Equity Group HY Earnings through 30th June 2020 versus through 30th June 2019 

HY Total Assets 746.469073b versus 638.662575b

HY Loans and Advances [Net] to Customers 391.633218b versus 320.886253b

HY Net Interest Income 24.635221b versus 21.079251b

HY Total Non Interest Income 14.400233b versus 16.543334b

HY Total Operating Income 39.035454b versus 37.622585b

HY Loan Loss 8.022277b versus 0.918498b

HY Total Operating Expenses 27.057962b versus 20.633530b

HY Profit before Tax 11.977492b versus 16.989055b

HY PAT 9.022117b versus 11.919475b 

HY Gross NPLs 45.550316b versus 29.243130b

HY Loan Loss Provision 23.448035b versus 16.214226b

HY Net NPLs 0.568172b versus 1.045227b 

a 773.4% y-o-y rise in loan loss provision expense to KES 8.0 BN which placed the cost of risk for the period at 2.0%.


Operating profit before provisions rose 11.7% y-o-y 

Non-interest income declined 13.0% y-o-y to KES 14.4 BN on the back of an 8.0% y-o-y decline in fees and commissions to KES 9.2 BN and a 36.7% y-o-y decline in other operating income to KES 2.9 BN. 

Net forex income rose 20.0% y-o-y to KES 2.2 BN.

Gross NPLs rose 55.8% y-o-y to KES 45.6 BN (+2.0% q-o-q) whereas loan loss provision rose 72.7% y-o-y to KES 16.3 BN (+8.2% q-o-q). 

Consequently NPL ratio rose 207 bps y-o-y to 10.4% whereas NPL coverage rose 422 bps y-o-y to 41.0%.

On a trailing basis, Equity is trading at a P/E of 5.9x and a P/B of 0.9x against sector median multiples of 4.8x and 0.6x. 


Conclusions

resilient 

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A hydrological map of Kenya with colour-coded watershed areas. @kenyangeography
Africa

In this thread, we'll highlight the source of each river, the watershed area and the direction of flow.

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Kakuzi reports HY 2020 Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           391.00

Total Shares Issued:          19600000.00

Market Capitalization:        7,663,600,000

EPS:             36.4

PE:                 10.742

Kakuzi reports HY 2020 Earnings

HY Sales 889.909m versus 619.463m

HY PBT 204.117m versus 335.082m

HY PAT 272.787m versus 245.581m

HY EPS 13.92 versus 12.53

Commentary

There was a Financial Provision write back in 2019 not repeated 

Avocado market crashed H1 - Peru flooded the market + lock down

Blueberry crop 

Conclusions

An attractive diversified and agile Plantation Company

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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