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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 13th of March 2020
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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04-NOV-2019 : I am of the view that BITCOIN and crypto is a Jeffrey Edward Epstein [and his cast of characters] level Con Its breathtaking
Africa


I am of the view that BITCOIN and crypto is a Jeffrey Edward Epstein
[and his cast of characters] level Con and I am having nothing to do
with it other than occasionally looking in and admiring the
sophistication and level of the Con. Its breathtaking.

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A new study estimates that about 80,000 cetaceans are swept up every year by tuna-fishing nets in the Indian Ocean. @WIRED
Africa


Dolphin numbers in the Indian Ocean may have dropped by more than 80
percent in recent decades, with an estimated 4 million small cetaceans
caught as “by-catch” in commercial tuna-fishing nets since 1950,
according to a study.
As many as 100,000 cetaceans–mainly dolphins–were caught in commercial
gill nets as by-catch in 2006, with current annual numbers at about
80,000.
Published in the journal Endangered Species Research, the study used
the changes in the number of dolphins caught in gill nets as a way to
calculate changes in dolphin populations in the Indian Ocean.
The authors say gill-net fishing in the Indian Ocean is “effectively
unmanaged” and potentially the biggest unresolved issue facing
cetaceans today.
The study, led by Charles Anderson of the Manta Marine organization in
the Maldives, estimated that dolphin numbers had likely dropped to
only 13 percent of their levels before 1980, when large-scale fishing
efforts for tuna in the Indian Ocean began.
About a third of the tuna pulled from the Indian Ocean is caught in
gill nets that hang in the water column–a method that has long
concerned conservationists, because as well as catching the valuable
tuna, they also entangle other species, including dolphins, whales,
sharks, and turtles.
About 4.1 million small cetaceans had been caught between 1950 and
2018 in Indian Ocean gill nets.
The study said Iran’s average annual catch of 214,262 tons of tuna–the
greatest haul across the Indian Ocean gill-net fisheries–was likely
catching 30,302 cetaceans a year.
The study found that for every 1,000 tons of tuna currently being
caught, about 175 cetaceans were also being caught.
Mustika said the vast majority of those animals die. “It’s a painful
death. Dolphins are clever, but because the net is very thin in the
water, the dolphins’ sonar misses them.”
She said the fishers should not be seen as “dolphin killers,” and
those she had spoken with were unhappy when dolphins became caught in
their nets.
She said it was important to understand there was a “political
reality” in the Indian Ocean, where hundreds of thousands of
relatively poor fishermen and their families rely on the gill nets.
The study authors also suggested that increased monitoring, better
checks at ports, and remote technologies could help bring by-catch
numbers down.

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Dunning-Kruger Effect: a proficiency in metacognition (thinking about thinking).In other words, being stupid makes you too stupid to realize how stupid you are. @G_S_Bhogal
Africa


Dunning-Kruger Effect: Awareness of the limitations of cognition
(thinking) requires a proficiency in metacognition (thinking about
thinking). In other words, being stupid makes you too stupid to
realize how stupid you are.

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Djinns [The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them]
Africa


Djinns [The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and
"scorching fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do
appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them. DJinn have the
power to travel large distances at extreme speeds and are thought to
live in remote areas - so now You Know]

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The Queen of Sheba herself is also credited with dominion over the jinn. @aaolomi
Africa


Believed to be part-jinn herself, her lineage granted her enchanting
beauty and vast powers. With Solomon she commanded the jinn Zaba to
build vast palaces in Yemen.

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First Wuhanvirus case: Nov 17, 2019 Xi locks down Wuhan: Jan 23, 2020 Between Xi and Trump, they turned a viral infection into a global pandemic. It takes real skill to do that. @anilvohra69
Law & Politics


For two months, Nero fiddled while Rome burned, letting the fire
spread unchecked.
Between Xi and Trump, they turned a viral infection into a global
pandemic. It takes real skill to do that.

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7273 new coronavirus cases were reported yesterday in the world, totaling 45 013 (outside China) we observe a doubling every 4 days @zorinaq
Law & Politics


I expect 0.5-2 million cases by end of March: we observe a doubling
every 4 days, and this trend is unlikely to *significantly* slow down
in the next 19 days

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BREAKING: Brazilian government spokesman who met with President Trump last weekend and was pictured standing next to him has tested positive for coronavirus - @BNODesk
Law & Politics


It's frightening for its narcissism it's incompetence and it's
Shakespeare level hubris ~ #COVID19 President @realDonaldTrump

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Analysis: Facing #Coronavirus outbreak, Trump's tactics fall short @AP
Law & Politics


The escalating coronavirus crisis is presenting President Donald Trump
with a challenge for which he appears ill-equipped, his favorite
political tactics ineffective and his reelection chances in jeopardy.
A rare crisis battering the White House that is not of the president’s
own making, the spreading coronavirus has panicked global financial
markets and alarmed Americans, many of whom have turned to the Oval
Office for guidance and reassurances.
But what they have found is a president struggling for a solution,
unable to settle Wall Street and proving particularly vulnerable to a
threat that is out of his control.
In an address to the nation Wednesday night, Trump announced a
sweeping travel ban for much of Europe as well as a package of
proposals to help steady the teetering economy.
But he continued to play down the severity of the situation, painting
it as a foreign threat that soon will be banished rather than focusing
on managing the growing number of cases at home.
“This is the most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a
foreign virus in modern history,” Trump declared.
Addressing the economic costs, he added, “This is not a financial
crisis, this is just a temporary moment of time that we will overcome
together as a nation and as a world.”
But the virus has appeared impervious to the Republican president’s bluster.
The virus does not have a Twitter account and, unlike so many previous
Trump foes, is resistant to political bullying or Republican Party
solidarity.
It has preyed on his lack of curiosity and fears of germs while
exposing divides and inadequacies within senior levels of his
administration.
It has taken away Trump’s favorite political tool, his rallies, from
which he draws energy and coveted voter information.
And eight months from Election Day, it has endangered his best
reelection argument — a strong economy — just as Joe Biden, the
candidate emerging from the Democratic field, seems poised to take
advantage of a political landscape upended by the virus.
“Crises of varying degrees produce fascinating and often consequential
elections: Think 1860, 1932, 1968, 2008. Such races turn on questions
of chaos versus order and favor the candidate who seems to offer the
best chance of bringing order to the country in times of uncertainty,”
presidential historian Jon Meacham said.
“What’s interesting about those examples is that incumbents, or
candidates of the incumbent party, lost all of them.”
One of Trump’s most potent political assets is his ability to read a
room, or a moment, often eschewing long-term planning for
instantaneous reaction.
But he was slow to come to grips with the threat posed by the
coronavirus as it exploded in China, distracted by impeachment and
unwilling to scare the markets by stirring panic or upsetting his
trading partner in Beijing, Xi Jinping.
The virus first spooked Trump while he was in India two weeks ago, as
a 1,000-point drop on Wall Street caused him to pepper aides with
questions about the markets even as he was feted in New Delhi.
But after he returned to the states, Trump continued to play down the
virus, lashing into officials, including Health and Human Services
Secretary Alex Azar, for talking up the possible severity of the
threat.
He urged other aides, including Kellyanne Conway and senior economic
adviser Larry Kudlow, to go on television and preach confidence,
according to five White House officials and Republicans close to the
White House.
They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not
authorized to discuss private conversations.
And as he has so often done before, Trump believed that through his
force of will and ability to dominate a news cycle, he could alleviate
the crisis, taking to both Twitter and the White House briefing room
podium to dismiss the threat.
“It will go away, just stay calm,” Trump said Tuesday after visiting
Capitol Hill. “Be calm. It’s really working out. And a lot of good
things are going to happen.”
The markets, unlike traditional political foes, have not listened.
And while Trump deemed the media coverage of the virus “a hoax” meant
to create hysteria and tank his poll numbers, it is a harder sell to
ask his supporters to dismiss media reports when they see people in
their own communities getting sick, schools closing and local
drugstores unable to keep hand sanitizer on the shelves.
Infighting erupted within the administration, as Trump blamed and then
sidelined Azar, relegating the health secretary to a secondary role
behind Vice President Mike Pence on the coronavirus task force.
But while Trump empowered Pence and respected medical professionals to
take the lead on briefings, he ignored his advisers’ advice to let the
vice president be the public face of the administration’s response,
according to the officials.
Unable to cede the spotlight, Trump spoke extemporaneously to
reporters at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta
on Friday, requiring the vice president, who addressed the media in
Washington moments later, to correct the president’s misstatements
about the availability of testing kits and the fate of a cruise ship
filled with coronavirus patients.
It was only on Monday, as he was flying from Florida back to
Washington, that the economic severity of the crisis hit home for
Trump, according to three of the officials and advisers.
In one cabin on Air Force One, Matt Gaetz, a Florida GOP congressman
who had accompanied Trump to a series of Orlando fundraisers, had
isolated himself after learning he’d come into contact with someone
infected by the virus.
And on the TV in Trump’s aircraft office, Fox News was broadcasting
dire graphics illustrating the single worst day for stock markets
since the 2008 financial crisis.
By the time the plane touched down at Joint Base Andrews, Trump told
aides he would change tactics and propose a broad economic stimulus to
reassure investors.
But the fate of his plan, which included a suspension of the payroll
tax, remained unclear as the week went on and the markets’ roller
coaster ride continued.
“I think that in many ways this has made Trump a wartime president,”
said former campaign communications director Jason Miller.
“This virus has no borders, doesn’t discern between allies and foes
and attacked the nation’s health security and economic security. It is
going to take continued bold action from the president.”
After surviving impeachment, Trump has in earnest remade his White
House staff to focus on reelection, prioritizing loyalty over
experience.
Increasingly focused on his campaign, Trump pushed aides to continue
scheduling massive rallies, even as his Democratic foes had begun
canceling theirs.
But late Wednesday, the White House announced that a trip to Colorado
and Nevada had been cancelled.
At least for now, no rallies were scheduled as a means to blunt the
momentum of his likely general election foe, Biden, who offers himself
as someone uniquely positioned to respond to the coronavirus.
As vice president, Biden helped manage the Ebola outbreak and has long
shown an ability to comfort rattled voters.
 Moreover, the Trump campaign believes that scuttling normal political
activity benefits Biden, who tends to draw small rally crowds and has
had some eyebrow-raising moments when interacting with voters.
“This is something that doesn’t hurt and probably actually helps Joe
Biden,” said Eric Trump, the president’s son and frequent campaign
surrogate. “This works for him on all fronts.”
Biden, now in command of the Democratic race after a series of primary
wins Tuesday, has drawn a clear comparison between how he would handle
the crisis and the president’s scattershot approach from the Oval
Office.
“At this moment, when there’s so much fear in the country and so much
fear across the world, we need American leadership,” Biden said. “We
need presidential leadership that’s honest, trusted, truthful and
steady, reassuring leadership.”

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What are the odds that a SARS-like coronavirus with overlapping genetics from HIV mutated and crossed over into humans @scottburke777
Law & Politics


What are the odds that a SARS-like coronavirus with overlapping
genetics from HIV mutated and crossed over into humans, next door to a
laboratory which had been enhancing coronavirus with HIV for over a
decade? And conversely, what are the odds it leaked out of the
laboratory?

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It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation! @zlj517
Law & Politics


2/2 CDC was caught on the spot. When did patient zero begin in US? How
many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It
might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent!
Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!

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How China's "Bat Woman" Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus @sciam
Law & Politics


If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “could they
have come from our lab?”

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@UofT University of Toronto researchers model: #coronavirus epidemic started 1 month earlier than commonly believed (Nov 2019) @V2019N #COVID19
Law & Politics


―You can‘t get up to that level of cases if the epidemic started in
Dec even if you pushed the reproduction high." -Fisman #NCP

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1197
Dollar Index 97.449
Japan Yen 105.54
Swiss Franc 0.9427
Pound 1.2561
Aussie 0.6290
India Rupee 73.925
South Korea Won 1218.77
Brazil Real 4.7914
Egypt Pound 15.70
South Africa Rand 16.467

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Emerging Markets


China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.

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A sudden stop in capital flows is hammering EM, with Brazil's Real (lhs) & Mexico's Peso (rhs) at all-time weak levels. @RobinBrooksIIF
Emerging Markets


Such sudden stops can have terrible knock-on effects for growth & what
makes this episode so dangerous is that it's global, i.e. includes the
US and Euro zone.

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Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa


The year began with promise for sub-Saharan Africa.
All the major institutions tracking African growth said so:
The African Development Bank pronounced in its Economic Outlook that
Africa’s economic outlook continues to brighten. Its real GDP growth,
estimated at 3.4% for 2019, is projected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2020
and to 4.1% in 2021.
The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook sub-Saharan Africa growth
is expected to strengthen to 3.5% in 2020–21 (from 3.3% in 2019).
The World Bank predicted ”Regional growth is expected to pick up to
2.9% in 2020”
Interestingly the World Bank added a caveat which was prescient:
A sharper-than-expected deceleration in major trading partners such as
China, the Euro Area, or the United States, would substantially lower
export revenues and investment.
A faster-than-expected slowdown in China would cause a sharp fall in
commodity prices and, given Sub-Saharan Africa’s heavy reliance on
extractive sectors for export and fiscal revenues, weigh heavily on
regional activity.
Those forecasts are now defunct and it’s only March.
The Coronavirus has to date barely made landfall on the African
continent with only 5 countries reporting infections but a Virus is in
its essence non-linear, exponential and multiplicative and it would be
a Shakespeare-level moment of hubris if policy makers were to pat
themselves on the back.
Diagnostic kits were only recently availed and if South Korea had
tested the same number of People as the entire African Continent, they
too would be reporting single digit cases.
We all know now ”what exponential disease propagation looks like in
the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing,
nothing, nothing … then cluster, cluster, cluster … then BOOM!” and
therefore we will know soon whether we really have dodged the
#Coronavirus Infection Bullet.
The issue at hand now is around the violence of the blowback from the
China #Coronavirus feedback loop phenomenon.
The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an an
exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved and therefore, it is a
”Black Swan”.
Fantasy predictions of a V shaped recovery in China have been dashed.
In fact China cannot just crank up the ‘Factory’ because that will
risk a second round effect of infections.
Therefore, I expect negative GDP Growth through H1 2020 in China as my
base case.
Standard Bank’s Chief Economist has calculated that a one percentage
point decrease in China’s domestic investment growth is associated
with an average 0.6 percentage point decrease in Africa’s exports.
Those countries heavily dependent on China being the main taker of
their commodities are at the bleeding edge of this now negative
feedback loop phenomenon. Commodity prices [Crude Oil, Copper, Coal]
have crashed more than 20% since the start of the year.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist or an Economist to calculate
which countries in are directly in the line of fire. Angola, Congo
Brazzavile, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, Nigeria and South Africa
spring immediately to mind.
Notwithstanding comments by the always upbeat and bright-eyed
President Adesina of the African Development Bank that Africa is not
facing a debt crisis.
He told Bloomberg, “Debt is not a problem, it’s very bad debt that’s a
problem,”.
The point is this.
SSA Countries with no exception that I can think off have gorged on
borrowing and balance sheets are maxed out.
Africa’s sovereign issuance in the Eurobond markets totaled $53bn in
2018 and 2019 and total outstanding debt topped $100bn last year.
Debt burdens have increased and affordability has weakened across most
of Sub-Saharan Africa, while a shift in debt structures has left some
countries more exposed to a financial shock, said Moodys in November
last year.
Very few of the investments made are within spitting distance of
providing an ROI [Return on Investment].
Rising debt service ratios are best exemplified by Nigeria where the
Government is spending more than half of its revenue servicing its
debt.
More than 50% of SSA GDP is produced by South Africa, Nigeria and Angola.
South Africa reported that GDP in Q4 2019 shrank by a massive 1.4%.
Annual growth at 0.2% is the lowest yearly growth since 2009 and the
tape is back at GFC times.
The rand which has been in free fall has a lot further to fall in 2020.
And this is before the viral infection.
Nigeria’s oil revenue is cratering and there is $16bn of ”hot money”
parked in short term certificates which is all headed for the Exit as
we speak. A Currency Devaluation is now predicted and predictable.
South Africa, Nigeria and Angola are poised to dive into deep recession.
East Africa which was a bright spot is facing down a locust invasion
which according to the FAO could turn 500x by June.
It is practically biblical.
“If I shut up heaven that there be no rain, or if I command the
locusts to devour the land, or if I send pestilence among my people;”
– 2 Chronicles 7:13-14
This is a perfect storm. Buckle up, and let’s stop popping the Quaaludes.

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Africa


China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.

read more





Nigeria Central Bank Says Fundamentals Don't Support Naira Devaluation @markets
Africa


The bank will launch an investigation along with other agencies to
uncover “unscrupulous” currency traders creating panic with rumors of
a devaluation, the bank said in a statement late Thursday sent by its
spokesman Isaac Okorafor.
“The size of Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves remains robust and
comfortable,” the bank said. “As such, the CBN remains able and
willing to meet all genuine demand for foreign exchange for legitimate
transactions.”

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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