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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 25th of January 2021
 
Morning
Africa



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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
World Of Finance


“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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Year is 1999 (2021): Fake gurus, chasing retail #Robinhood's, #Tiktok, #Reddit traders are cocky and think they're geniuses. @BP_Rising
Misc.


In reality, it's the market atmosphere created by trillions in liquidity from the Fed. It's a wealth effect illusion, but we're just in the eye of a storm.

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"Our souls are made of water, Goethe says. So too, our bodies. There is a flow within us, rising and falling, unidirectional, to the heart. It's all haemodynamics." - J.M. Ledgard, Giraffe
Misc.


“Our souls are made of water, Goethe says. So too, our bodies. There is a flow within us, rising and falling, unidirectional, to the heart. there is a flow without also. We circulate. We are drawn up, and we fall back down to earth again. It's all haemodynamics.” ― J.M. Ledgard, Giraffe

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Eight Chinese bomber planes and four fighter jets entered the south-western corner of Taiwan’s air defence identification zone on Saturday @guardian
Law & Politics



Eight Chinese bomber planes and four fighter jets entered the south-western corner of Taiwan’s air defence identification zone on Saturday, and Taiwan’s air force deployed missiles to “monitor” the incursion, the island’s defence ministry said.

China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has conducted almost daily flights over the waters between the southern part of Taiwan and the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands in the South China Sea in recent months.

However they have generally consisted of just one or two reconnaissance aircraft.

The presence of so many Chinese combat aircraft on this mission – Taiwan said it was made up of eight nuclear-capable H-6K bombers and four J-16 fighter jets – is unusual

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09-NOV-2020 :: The Single biggest Issue remains how Biden engages with the Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro
Law & Politics



''The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting''

Xi salami-sliced his way into a deeply forward position during the Obama Administration and in 2020 snaffled up Hong Kong, marched 400 kilometers into Indian Territory and the Straw Man Narendra Modi has not even uttered a word and Xi might even decide to roll over Taiwan during this Interregnum.

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Also 和谐 hexie over the eyes means "harmony" (from former Pres Hu catchphrase). In China if you've been censored you've been "harmonised".
China


That‘s right, we, We the People, for [as I have previously said] how can we let ourselves ―survive no better than swine; fawn upon the power-holders like curs; and live in vile filth like maggots?

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[Putin is losing control of the Narrative] 22-JUN-2020 :: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics



The "political technologist of all of Rus." And non linear War Specialist Vladislav Surkov.


Putin's system was also ripe for export, Mr Surkov added. Foreign governments were already paying close attention, since the Russian "political algorithm" had long predicted the volatility now seen in western democracies.

With a flourish he sponsored lavish arts festivals for the most provocative modern artists in Moscow, then supported Orthodox fundamentalists, dressed all in black and carrying crosses, who in turn attacked the modern-art exhibitions. @TheAtlantic



"It was the first non-linear war," writes Surkov in a new short story, "Without Sky," published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the "fifth world war":

"My portfolio at the @KremlinRussia_E and in government has included ideology, media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign relations, and ..." - here he pauses and smiles - "modern art."

A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable Adam Curtis

The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilised perception, in order to manage and control


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Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Law & Politics





Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”



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We’re living in a golden age of ignorance @FinancialTimes
Law & Politics



Has there been a moment in modern history where so many people in free societies have believed such damaging lies?

It’s easy to point to the US, where nearly 90 per cent of people who voted for Donald Trump believe Joe Biden’s election victory was not legitimate. 

No surprise, then, that there is considerable support for the recent violent attempt to prevent the democratic transfer of power.

But it’s not just the US. In France, a minority of adults are confident that vaccines are safe, which explains why only 40 per cent say they plan to get a Covid-19 shot. 

This hesitancy also goes some way to explaining why France’s vaccine rollout has started so slowly.

Meanwhile, across the world, substantial minorities believe that the Covid-19 fatality rate has been “deliberately and greatly exaggerated”. 

The proportion of Covid-19 deniers is 22 per cent in the UK; in many other countries, it is even higher.

How did it come to this? The simplest explanation — to repurpose a phrase from former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers — is: “There are idiots. Look around.” 

But while there is a certain visceral satisfaction in that explanation, there is much more going on.

Robert Proctor, a historian, coined the term “agnotology” to describe the academic study of ignorance. 

He became interested in the phenomenon after studying Big Tobacco’s all-too-successful effort to seed doubt about the scientific evidence on the risks of cigarettes.

Proctor once told me “we are living in a golden age of ignorance”. That was in 2016; the golden age had barely started to dawn

Three elements of it are worth highlighting — none of them entirely new.

First, distraction. It’s possible for people to spend hours every day consuming what is described as “news” without ever engaging with anything of substance. 

Some distractions are obvious: doing the sudoku will not help you understand the implications of the post-Brexit trade deal, and neither will gazing at pictures of celebrities.

At least such diversions are marketed thus. Others are more insidious. 

Consider “scotch-egging”, the oddly British pastime of arguing over whether a particular activity (driving to beauty spots to go for a walk, cycling in east London when your home address is in Downing Street, treating a scotch egg as a “substantial meal” with your drink in a pub) does or does not violate the letter or the spirit of pandemic rules. 

Scotch-egg stories are emotionally salient and easy to understand, and superficially they seem to be about important matters of public health. 

But they suck attention away from the real questions: how can I live life while protecting myself and others? When I cast my vote, does the government’s response deserve praise or blame?

Second, political tribalism. In a polarised environment, every factual claim becomes a weapon in an argument

When people encounter a claim that challenges their cultural identity, don’t be surprised if they disbelieve it.

We are all distracted. We all have tribes too: social if not political. We are all vulnerable to believing things that aren’t true

It is obvious that political polarisation might shape our beliefs about questions of politics (do you approve of Boris Johnson’s handling of the pandemic?) and government (was the US election fair?) and policy (should we provide a universal basic income?). 

But it also shapes our beliefs about apparently unrelated scientific questions, such as whether humans are causing dangerous climate change, or whether the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is safe. 

Logically, the answers to these questions should not skew left or right — but they do.

The HPV vaccine is a fascinating example. A team of researchers at Yale’s Cultural Cognition Project concluded that many Americans had sharply different views about HPV compared to the hepatitis B vaccine (HBV). 

What explains the difference? They tended to learn about HBV from their doctors, while they learned about HPV from cable news. Not everything is polarised — but almost anything can be polarised, and it will be if a prominent political or media figure sees advantage in doing so.

Distractions stop us from paying attention to what matters, and political tribalism makes us reject evidence that casts our tribe in a bad light. 

Combine the two, add steroids and you get the third element of the age of ignorance: conspiracy thinking.

Conspiracy thinkers devote enormous mental energy to extracting meaning from trivia. 

Overwhelming evidence can be dismissed as fake news manufactured by the conspiracy.

So can ignorance be banished? It isn’t easy. David McRaney, creator of the You Are Not So Smart podcast, and Adam Grant, author of Think Again, each offers similar advice: don’t lead with the facts. 

Instead, establish rapport, ask questions and listen to the answers. (Needless to say, this is much easier in a real-life conversation than on social media.) 

You won’t be able to bully someone out of fringe views, but sometimes people will talk themselves around.

This is wise advice, but my own recent work has a more modest goal. Instead of trying to enlighten someone else, I suggest that each of us starts with our own blind spots. 

We are all distracted. We all have tribes too: social if not political. We are all vulnerable, then, to believing things that aren’t true. 

And we are equally vulnerable to denying or ignoring important truths.

We should all slow down, calm down, ask questions and imagine that we may be wrong. It is simple advice, but much better than nothing. It is also advice that is all too easy to ignore.

Tim Harford’s new book is “How to Make the World Add Up” (UK) / "The Data Detective" (US) 

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“My take on Trump is that he is an inevitable creation of this unreal normal world,” Adam Curtis says.
Law & Politics


“Politics has become a pantomime or vaudeville in that it creates waves of anger rather than argument. Maybe people like Trump are successful simply because they fuel that anger, in the echo chambers of the internet.”

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Brazil has a new coronavirus variant, and it is present in about 50% of all new COVID cases in Manaus city @BoingBoing
Misc.



It's mutating.

A newly identified variant of COVID is already confirmed in about half of all new infections in Manaus, Brazil, which raises alarm about a greater risk of spread, a researcher warns on Friday.

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This is what is happening in Portugal right now. @MaxCRoser
Misc.



In grey you see the rate of confirmed cases in the US, UK, France, & Germany for comparison.



The positive rate of testing has also rapidly increased in Portugal (18% now) so that the true increase of cases is likely even faster.



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The B117 variant is >11% of Covid cases in Portugal. nothing, nothing, nothing ... case, case, case ... cluster, cluster, cluster ... BOOM! @EpsilonTheory
Misc.


I figure the US is about 4 weeks behind Portugal. Once again, Europe is our crystal ball. Once again, we’re going to ignore it.

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America’s Salad Bowl Becomes Fertile Ground for Covid-19 @nytimes
Misc.



Yuma County, which produces the lettuce, broccoli and other leafy greens that Americans consume during the cold months, is known as “America’s salad bowl.” Now it has become a winter hothouse for Covid-19.



Over the course of the pandemic, the Yuma area has identified coronavirus cases at a higher rate than any other U.S. region. One out of every six residents has come down with the virus.

Each winter, the county’s population swells by 100,000 people, to more than 300,000, as field workers descend on the farms and snowbirds from the Midwest pull into R.V. parks. 

This seasonal ritual brings jobs, local spending and high tax revenue. But this year, the influx has turned deadly.

Father Chapa’s parish is weathering the full spectrum of the pandemic’s surge. In Spanish and English, he ministers to Mexican-American families who have been rooted here for generations as well as the seasonal residents, all of them afflicted. 

The church is handling three times the number of funerals it usually does.


Between October and March each year, as many as 40,000 “lechugeros,” or lettuce people, toil in Yuma, whose mild temperatures and Colorado River-irrigated land make it the ideal spot to grow leafy vegetables.

Thousands commute daily from Mexico to the verdant fields that stretch into the distance, where the rust-colored Gila Mountains glisten. Guest workers stay in motels in town.



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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2179

Dollar Index 90.138

Japan Yen 103.7465

Swiss Franc 0.8850

Pound 1.3709

Aussie 0.77399

India Rupee 72.941

South Korea Won 1101.795

Brazil Real 5.46785

Egypt Pound 15.7175

South Africa Rand 15.1135

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Enter Maren Altman, bitcoin investor and astrologer When to trade bitcoin? When Saturn crosses Mercury, of course @Reuters
World Currencies



Last week, the 22-year-old told her followers to watch for a price correction on Jan. 11.

Why? Saturn was going to cross Mercury.

Lo and behold, bitcoin fell as much as 21% on that day, before recovering most of its losses, slamming the brakes on a meteoric rally that saw it double from early December to a record $42,000 last week.

For the uninitiated, Mercury represents bitcoin’s price data and Saturn is a restricting indicator.

Bitcoin has jumped over five-fold since the start of 2020, prompting investment banks to predict more future gains. 

Citigroup said bitcoin could hit $318,000, while JPMorgan Chase & Co tipped it to reach $146,000.

So what do the stars have in store for the world’s favourite cryptocurrency?

“I see some favourable indicators at the end of the month and especially February and early March,” said Altman, whose readings of bitcoin’s astrology charts are based on the date for the coin’s genesis block, the equivalent of its birthday.

“However getting into mid-March, I see a big correction. Mid-April is also really less optimistic. May is bullish.”

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08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.
World Currencies


The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.

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04-JAN-2021 :: $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory. I believe its a Trading Sell with a very wide Stop. It is currently at its maximum ''Safe Haven'' / Fiat debasement premia.
World Currencies


As I write this on the 3rd of January 2021 $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher. I believe $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory. I believe its a Trading Sell with a very wide Stop. It is currently at its maximum ''Safe Haven'' / Fiat debasement premia.

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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 3 415 434 (+ 25707) Actives: 458 192 (-1003) @NCoVAfrica
Africa



Confirmed: 3 415 434 (+ 25707)

Actives: 458 192 (-1003)

Deaths: 84 647 (+ 775)

Recoveries: 2 870 235 (+ 25935)

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Africa



In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.


A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions


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COVID-19 deaths detected in a systematic post-mortem surveillance study in Africa
Africa





Results We enrolled 372 participants between June and September 2020, and had PCR results for 364 (99.5%). CV19 was detected in 70/364 (19.2%). 

Conclusions Contrary to expectations, CV19+ deaths were common in Lusaka. The majority occurred in the community where testing capacity is lacking. 

Yet few who died at facilities were tested, despite presenting with typical symptoms of CV19. 

Therefore, CV19 cases were under reported because testing was rarely done, not because CV19 was rare. If our data are generalizable, the impact of CV19 in Africa has been vastly underestimated.


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When Donald Trump appeared to incite a riot at the Capitol building, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Zimbabwean counterpart Emmerson Mnangagwa were scathing in their response.
Africa



But when it came to Uganda's deeply flawed election, they and the African Union had little comment.
Yoweri Museveni, who has led the eastern African country since a 1986 coup, shut down the internet and made sure 38-year-old opponent Bobi Wine was under house arrest for days. 

Protests were brutally crushed, people were killed and the U.S., European Union and United Nations Commission on Human Rights all doubted the vote was fair.


“The opposition will have a right to ask why the AU did not intervene,''  said Murithi Mutiga of the International Crisis Group. ``They would have appreciated at least rhetorical support.”

Museveni, who despite his iron grip on Uganda's state apparatus still won his lowest share of the vote in six elections, isn’t alone in clinging to power. 

In neighboring Rwanda, Paul Kagame has effectively led the country since 1994, and Paul Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982. 

Top of the list is Teodoro Nguema Obiang, leader of Equatorial Guinea since 1979. 

No pressure has been put on any of them by the AU to move on.

While Museveni has clung on, Africa's status as the world's youngest continent is working against him and fellow aging leaders. 

Wine, the musician-turned-politician whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, highlighted Uganda's demographics, where about 80% of the nation's 42 million people are under 40.

With stagnant economies, rampant unemployment and repressive politics, the patience of the youth is beginning to fray.


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Turning To Africa Spinning Top
Africa



Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator


Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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In poor districts, young Tunisians with nothing to lose clash with police @Reuters
Africa



“There’s nothing here ... there’s no opportunity. The only government we know is the police car coming to arrest people,” said Mohammed, surrounded by nodding friends next to walls marked with graffiti.

In the worst political unrest in years, thousands of protesters have marched through cities across the country demanding jobs, dignity and an end to police violence. At night, youths face off with security forces.


“If we do not listen to the voice of these angry youths, they will sweep away the whole parliament, government, president - the whole system,” said Safi Said, an independent lawmaker addressing parliament this week.

“All I hope for every day is to find some pot and some beer and maybe get out of this world for a while,” he said.


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Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution January 15, 2011 By Aly-Khan Satchu
Africa




Mr. Ben Ali in a speech on Monday called the riots “terrorist acts” that were the work of “masked gangs” operating for foreign parties.

"We are not afraid, we are not afraid, we are afraid only of God," the crowds chanted on Tuesday in Tunis.

On Thursday, the American secretary of State said the following in Qatar.

“In too many places, in too many ways, the region’s foundations are sinking into the sand,” said Secretary Hillary Clinton. 

“Those who cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of their countries’ problems for a little while, but not forever, If leaders don’t offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum.”



By Friday evening he was gone in a puff of smoke. French President Sarkozy would not allow him to land on French soil and it was the Saudi Arabians who accepted the Ben Ali entourage.

The day’s seismic events in Tunisia were described by the broadcaster Abeer Madi al-Halabi as serving “a lesson for countries where presidents and kings have rusted on their thrones.”


change is never incremental, it tips and surges. 

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To monitor and measure the social and economic impacts of the #COVID19 pandemic on households in #Kenya, a high-frequency phone survey was created. See the latest data @WorldBankKenya
Kenyan Economy


The high-frequency phone survey on the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 in Kenya is implemented by the World Bank, in collaboration with the Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) as well as the University of California, Berkeley.

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Kenya raised KES 673.6 Billion Shillings in tax revenue in the 6-months ending in December. Achieving only 42% at the half-way point, in the middle of a pandemic, bodes ill. @Ramah_Nyang
Kenyan Economy


Kenya raised KES 673.6 Billion Shillings in tax revenue in the 6-months ending in December. The tax revenue target for FY 20/21 is 1.568 Trillion Shillings, remember. Achieving only 42% at the half-way point, in the middle of a pandemic, bodes ill.

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In a nutshell, the revenue side looked like this from July-December 2020: @@Ramah_Nyang
Kenyan Economy




Tax Revenue: KES 673.605 Billion

Domestic Borrowing: KES 385.756 Billion

Non-Tax Revenue: KES 52.9 Billion

External Loans & Grants: KES 39.776 Billion


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The Spinning Top The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.
Africa



The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.

The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews

The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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