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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 16th of November 2021

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Hard-earned cash: The monumental stone coins used by the Yap (Jap) people in Micronesia which are called Rai are still a working currency on the island of Palau. @archaeologyart
World Of Finance

Hard-earned cash: The monumental stone coins used by the Yap (Jap) people in Micronesia which are called Rai are still a working currency on the island of Palau. Although no more disks are being produced or imported, this money supply is fixed.

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With the exception of elephant, every species has declined drastically since 1977; when the censuses began and hunting was banned. Mara Triangle

Not surprisingly Thomson’s gazelle and impala have been hardest hit;  their habitat has been destroyed or taken over by livestock and fencing, and they are the perfect size for hunting with dogs and small-scale bushmeat poaching.  

Thomson’s have declined by 92% since 1977 and impala by 85% - these species are crucial to the survivability of such endangered species as cheetah and Cape hunting dogs, and yet they are seen as “of least concern”.  

This year is no exception;  the migration arrived late and has left very early.  Gone are the days when we could expect the migration to remain in Kenya for four months, this year we hardly made two.  

Rainfall is certainly a contributing factor, the past few years have been exceptionally wet, but we can’t overlook other factors. 

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Memento Mori mosaic was found in a triclinium (formal dining room) in Pompeii, it dates to 30 BCE — 14 CE. theme was intended to remind diners of the fleeting nature of earthly fortunes. @GrecianGirly

This Memento Mori mosaic was found in a triclinium (formal dining room) in Pompeii, it dates to 30 BCE — 14 CE. The theme was intended to remind diners of the fleeting nature of earthly fortunes. Museo Archeologico Nazionale di Napoli (Inv. No. 109982). 

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Sic transit gloria mundi is a Latin phrase that means Thus passes the glory of the world. It has been interpreted as Worldly things are fleeting'

My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;

Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains.
Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare.
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

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24 OCT 11 :: Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message?
Law & Politics

The image of a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.
Marshall McLuhan’s prediction in The Gutenberg Galaxy (1962) that ‘The new electronic interdependence recreates the world in the image of a global village’ has come to pass. 

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28 OCT 19 :: Putin discreetly showing his visitors a photo of a dead Gaddafi and maybe he dwelled a little on the bottle and then a Photo of a spritely Bashar Assad
Law & Politics

Putin’s linguistics is an art form and I imagine he buttressed the above points by discreetly showing his visitors a photo of a dead Gaddafi and maybe he dwelled a little on the bottle and then a Photo of a spritely Bashar Assad and would surely not even have had to ask the question; what’s the difference?

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1376
Dollar Index 95.524
Japan Yen 114.18
Swiss Franc 0.9250
Pound 1.3420
Aussie 0.7343
India Rupee 74.4475
South Korea Won 1179.19
Brazil Real 5.4899
Egypt Pound 15.7099
South Africa Rand 15.25

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DXY - WEEKLY CHART This has the potential to be disruptive to all markets. @Bellehos 95.524
World Currencies

USD bull markets are MOMENTUM DRIVEN and unruly.



[AND A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY] There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official

there is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.

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Inflation Is Killing the Dollar Carry Trade in Emerging Markets @markets
Emerging Markets

A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in U.S. inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous.
A Bloomberg index of these bets has dropped more than 4% in the past two months, the biggest slide since March 2020 for a strategy of borrowing in the greenback and investing in developing-nation currencies.

The quickest U.S. inflation in three decades is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten, raising the prospect of higher costs for dollar borrowers, and less extra yield -- or carry.
It’s a speedy about-face for traders, who just two months ago were taking comfort in the Fed’s dovish messaging around gradual pace of tightening, and were using the opportunity to pile into carry trades. 

Many of these bets are now coming undone due to the growing concern about inflation, and about whether central banks will have to play catch up with aggressive hikes.

“Sharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the U.S. and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory,” said Mitul Kotecha, chief emerging markets Asia and Europe strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. 

“This bodes badly for EM carry trades in the near term as it reduces the relative yield gap.”

A tightening in global liquidity conditions due to the Fed tapering its asset purchases may also raise some obstacles for emerging-market carry, Kotecha said.

Traders could turn to the euro and yen for cheaper funding costs. Both currencies are among the worst performers in the Group-of-10 space so far this quarter, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan expected to maintain an accommodative stance.  

The losses in the Bloomberg index of emerging-market carry trades since the end of August come after it bounced up by 1.5% that month. 

The gauge, which covers eight currencies including the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Indian rupee, is heading for a second annual loss. 

Among the worst performers over the past two months, a trade of borrowing dollars and buying the Turkish lira has lost 12%, while investments in the South African rand and Hungarian forint have both dropped more than 5%

On the upside, putting funds in the Argentine peso has returned 7%.

There’s at least some prospect emerging-market central banks will raise interest rates fast enough to ensure a sufficient yield premium to improve carry returns. 

Investors may get further guidance about that this week with policy decisions from Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines and Hungary.
The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

The lira, Russian ruble, Mexican peso and rand are likely to generate the best returns, while the rupiah and rupee are less attractive, chief emerging-market credit strategist Damian Sassower in New York, wrote in a research note this month. 

“Interest rates are rising more rapidly across Latin America and EMEA,” he said

“Asian currencies have lost their luster in 2021, as the short-dated carry embedded within high-yielding economies continues to diminish.”

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Seven Charts that Show Sub-Saharan Africa at a Crucial Point @IMFAfrica By @aselassie & Habtamu Fuje @IMFNews

After an unparalleled contraction in 2020, sub-Saharan Africa is set to grow by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. 

The recovery is supported by rising commodity prices, improving global trade and financial conditions. 

But this welcomed rebound is relatively modest by global standards, leading to a widening income disparity with developed economies.

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The vaccine rollout in sub-Saharan Africa has been the slowest in the world, The region has fully vaccinated only 3 percent of its population @IMFAfrica @IMFNews

The vaccine rollout in sub-Saharan Africa has been the slowest in the world, leaving the region vulnerable to repeated waves of COVID-19. The region has fully vaccinated only 3 percent of its population, well below the level needed to reach herd immunity. 

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The pandemic has also worsened the pre-existing divergence across sub-Saharan African countries and within individual countries. @IMFNews

Even before the pandemic, non-resource-intensive countries that have a diversified economic structure had been growing faster than resource-rich countries. 

But this gap has been exacerbated by the pandemic, which has highlighted key disparities in resilience.
Similarly, the pandemic has elevated divergence within individual countries, along lines of employment, gender, geographic residence, socioeconomic status, and formal/informal workers. 

Rising food prices, combined with reduced incomes, also mean that households must reduce food consumption, threatening past gains in poverty reduction, nutrition, and food security.

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Sub-Saharan African countries are facing a difficult fiscal policy trilemma— @IMFAfrica @IMFNews

Sub-Saharan African countries are facing a difficult fiscal policy trilemma—balancing tradeoffs between pressing development-spending needs, containing public debt, and mounting resistance to tax revenue mobilization. 

Meeting these goals has never been easy, but the pandemic has made it even more difficult. 

The spending needs of sub-Saharan Africa are growing and becoming pressing as the pandemic takes a toll on health, employment, education, infrastructure investment, and poverty reduction efforts. Climate change adds to the burden.

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Climate Shocks @IMFAfrica @IMFNews

Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s smallest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions—less than 5 percent of global emissions—but nonetheless the region is perhaps the most vulnerable to climate shocks.

 One-third of the world’s droughts already take place in sub-Saharan Africa, and its dependence on rain-fed agriculture makes it particularly vulnerable. 

Climate change can also act as a multiplier for conflict and fragility, worsening pre-existing tensions, weak governance, and other socio-economic concerns. 

Adapting to climate change, and assisting in worldwide mitigation efforts, will require new and robust climate-finance mechanisms.

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Special Drawing Rights (SDR) @IMFAfrica @IMFNews

International cooperation remains vital. Without external financial and technical assistance, the divergent recovery paths of sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world may harden into permanent fault lines, jeopardizing decades of hard-won progress. 

So far, international organizations and donors have mobilized swiftly to support the region. 

Looking ahead, the voluntary channeling of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) from countries with strong external positions to those most in need can further magnify the impact of the new SDR allocation. 

Used wisely, these resources could shape the region’s post-pandemic recovery path.

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Over the next three decades, the global population is set to increase by about 2 billion. Half of that growth will take place in sub-Sahara Africa, @IMFAfrica @IMFNews

Despite the difficult years ahead, the region’s potential as a source of global demand remains undiminished. 

Over the next three decades, the global population is set to increase by about 2 billion. 

Half of that growth will take place in sub-Sahara Africa, as the region’s population is projected to double from about 1 billion to 2 billion. 

This makes the region potentially one of the world’s most dynamic economies, and one of its most important markets.

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Once the great hope of Africa, Ethiopia is descending into chaos before our eyes @Telegraph @_Will_Brown

One of the great tragedies of the 21st century could be unfolding before our eyes. A country that just a few years ago was the great hope of Africa and one of the largest recipients of UK aid is descending into chaos.

An army of battle-hardened rebels are pressing towards the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, to oust the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel peace prize winner and until recently a darling of the West.
It looks like a fight to the death. A final rebel offensive could be weeks, if not days away. 

Conversely, the rebels – whose supply lines are stretched – could be crushed. 

Either outcome would spell disaster for the ethnically-fractured nation, which until recently, was one of the fastest-growing economies on earth.
The country of 115 million risks tumbling into a Yugoslavia-style breakup, unleashing a humanitarian catastrophe that would be felt across eastern Africa, the Middle East and Europe.  
Ethiopia hit rock bottom in the 1980s when the Derg, a Marxist dictatorship, helped plunge the nation into a devastating famine. 

Michael Buerk's landmark reporting for the BBC grabbed the world's attention, prompting the launch of LiveAid.
In the 1990s, the Tigrayan's People's Liberation Front (TPLF) led a coalition of rebel groups to oust the Marxist dictatorship.

The Tigrayans are just one of more than 80 ethnic groups in Ethiopia but despite its small size, the group has played a huge role in Ethiopia’s modern history and dominated the country’s politics for almost 30 years up to 2018. 

For much of that time, Ethiopia grew at an extraordinary pace, averaging 9.4 per cent growth a year for the last decade. 

Its vast workforce, tourism income from its medieval religious sites, as well as flower and coffee exports all helped the nation progress. 

However, it is still one of the poorest on earth, with a per capita income of $850, according to the World Bank.
The country has benefited hugely from Western support, especially from the UK and the US, which favoured the TPLF-dominated authoritarian government over the previous Derg regime. 

From 2010 to 2015, the UK spent more than £1.3bn on aid to Ethiopia.
But major abuses of power, such as a "one-to-five" policy that saw volunteers spy on five other people in their community, led to widespread dissent. 

A wave of protests swept the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power in 2018.
Mr Abiy, a young, smooth-talking, former spy chief, promised to liberalise society and the economy, releasing thousands of political prisoners and lifting media restrictions. 

The West fell head over heels in love with the fresh-faced PM and in 2019 he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for ending a long-running conflict with Eritrea which had cost the lives of about 100,000 people. 

Investors from the US to China began eyeing Ethiopia as the world's next great manufacturing hub, while commentators talked earnestly about the country dragging the troubled region up by its bootstraps.  

But in November 2020 everything began to fall apart. A power struggle between Mr Abiy's federal government and old TPLF elites boiled over into all-out war. 

Mr Abiy teamed up with Eritrea's dictator Isaias Afwerki to crush the heavily armed TPLF forces in a devastating pincer movement.
For the last 12 months, Tigray has been locked in bitter fighting, hidden in the shadows behind communications blackouts. 

Thousands if not 10s of thousands are thought to have been killed, and millions pushed to the brink of famine. 

Many observers now see Mr Abiy as an unhinged megalomaniac driven by religious fervour. "We will bury this enemy with our blood and bones" for the glory of Ethiopia, Mr Abiy said recently.
But the Tigrayan rebels weathered the storm, waging a guerrilla war that seems to have beaten back two of the largest armies in Africa. 

The powerful Ethiopian army and its allied ethnic militia from the neighbouring Amhara state have taken heavy casualties from the bloody year-long civil war. 

While reporting restrictions make battlefield positions difficult to verify, federal defences seem to be falling apart.
The main rebel force is now thought to be at most 200 miles north of the capital – roughly the distance from London to Manchester – on a crucial highway connecting the landlocked nation to Djibouti, a small country that handles about 90 per cent of its neighbour's trade. 

As the rebels have advanced south, they have formed alliances with eight other opposition groups to dethrone Mr Abiy.

The US, the UK, the United Nations and the African Union are all desperately trying to find a diplomatic solution to stop the rebels’ advance on the capital. 

But after months of starvation, heinous abuses and crazed rhetoric, it seems unlikely that diplomacy will yield anything. 

The Tigrayan rebels are backed into a corner. To the north, they are hemmed in by legions of Eritrean conscripts. 

To the south, they face the federal army and militias that have been blocking much-needed aid. 

One rebel official told The Telegraph earlier this month that if the aid blockade on Tigray was not lifted, Tigrayan forces would either have to press forward to break it and oust Mr Abiy or face slowly being bled and starved to death.
Anticipating an offensive on Addis Ababa, the US has told its citizens to leave the country as soon as possible and has started to evacuate embassy staff. 

The British government has followed suit, telling all UK citizens to go while commercial flights were still available and getting some non-essential staff in Ethiopia back to the UK.
Six months ago, Jeffrey Feltman, the US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, warned if the civil war spread from the country's north, Ethiopia would make "Syria .. look like child's play." 

Unless urgent action is taken to bring all sides to the negotiating table, these words may soon ring true. It may already be too late. 

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November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

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The U.S. is very concerned about the potential for Ethiopia to implode @SecBlinken @business

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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February 1st 2021 The genie out of the bottle @AfricanBizMag

“Everybody else is going to start wanting more freedom within the constitution. It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country. If he put more resources into Tigray he’s going to lose more control of the other regions.''

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Heineken to Buy South Africa’s @distellgroup for $2.5 Billion @markets

Heineken NV agreed to buy South African wine and spirits maker Distell Group Holdings NV for 2.2 billion euros ($2.5 billion), creating a new regional group to compete with larger rival Anheuser-Busch InBev SA and spirits giant Diageo Plc.
The Dutch brewer made an offer of 180 rand a share that’s been recommended by Distell’s board, according to a statement on Monday. 

Heineken will also look to buy a majority stake in the owner of Namibia Breweries Ltd., a regional partner, the company said.
The move will form a Heineken majority-owned entity with a total valuation of about 4 billion euros. 

The firm will produce the brewer’s signature lager and Namibia’s Windhoek, plus Distell staples such as Klipdrift brandy and Savanna cider and a number of wines for export.
Distell shares fell 7% to 169.86 rand as of 10:11 a.m. in Johannesburg, having closed on Friday above the offer price at 182.59 rand. 

The deal still requires shareholder approval. Heineken shares gained 0.8% in Amsterdam.
Remgro Ltd., an investment vehicle of South African billionaire Johann Rupert, said it will vote in favor of the transaction. 

The company and the Public Investment Corp., Africa’s biggest money manager, each hold a little more than 30% of Distell, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

The PIC didn’t immediately say how it will vote.
The deal sees Heineken Chief Executive Officer Dolf van den Brink, who got the top job in June of last year, accelerate the decades-long strategy of predecessor Jean-Francois van Boxmeer, who invested hundreds of millions of euros in markets such as Ivory Coast and Nigeria. 

Heineken is also looking to counter plunging beer sales in Asia.
“We are very excited to bring together three strong businesses to create a regional beverage champion, perfectly positioned to capture significant growth opportunities in southern Africa,” Van den Brink said in the statement.
The purchase is expected to boost earnings in the first year after completion, Heineken said. 

The move comes a few years after AB InBev bought South African Breweries, the country’s largest beermaker, as part of its megadeal for SABMiller Plc.
Namibia Breweries, the market leader in the southwest African country, exports to 17 countries excluding South Africa. 

It will remain listed on the Namibian Stock Exchange, with public shareholders continuing to hold a minority stake.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2021

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