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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 19th of November 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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These became known as the halcyon days when storms do not occur. Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus
Misc.

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds (kingfishers).
When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs.
These became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today, the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for being happy and/or successful

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.@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 16 November 2021
Misc.


During the week 8 to 14 November 2021, the increasing trend in new global weekly cases continued, with over 3.3 million new cases reported – a 6% increase as compared to the previous week. 

The Region of the Americas, the European and the Western Pacific Regions all reported increases in new weekly cases as compared to the previous week, while all other regions reported stable or declining trends. 

Similarly, the European Region reported a 5% increase in new deaths, while the other regions reported stable or declining trends. 

Globally, just under 50 000 new deaths were reported, similar to the previous week. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

United States of America (550 684 new cases; 8% increase)

Russian Federation (275 579 new cases; similar to the previous week’s figures)

Germany (254 436 new cases; 50% increase) 

United Kingdom (252 905 new cases; similar to the previous week’s figures)

Turkey (180 167 new cases; 9% decrease).

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19-JUL-2021 Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.
Misc.


"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett


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Nations w/ new record daily COVID19 cases past week @jmlukens
Misc.

Germany: 53,627
Hungary: 21,060
Netherlands: 20,210
Austria: 13,152
Ireland: 8,965
Slovakia: 7,244
Denmark: 4,593
Norway: 3,530
Finland: 3,166
Egypt: 1,881
Laos: 1,306
Iceland: 420
New Zealand: 222
Liechtenstein: 68

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 54 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.

18 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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We have had a small number of variants of concern so far, the most globally troubling of which have been alpha and delta. It didn't take long to move from alpha to delta. @ArisKatzourakis
Misc.


Contextualizing what this means with respect to the emergence of future variants. We have had a small number of variants of concern so far, the most globally troubling of which have been alpha and delta. It didn't take long to move from alpha to delta.

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However, delta sweeped through, temporarily homogenising genetic variation, a consequence of its own success in transmission. @ArisKatzourakis
Misc.

However, delta sweeped through, temporarily homogenising genetic variation, a consequence of its own success in transmission. Of course, variation is a product of mutation and selection, and mutations don't stop, and variation has been building up since.

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But, it takes time to rebuild the global genetic diversity before the emergence of delta. This might mean that the time interval for the next variant of concern would take longer than the time it took to go from alpha to delta. @ArisKatzourakis
Misc.

But, it takes time to rebuild the global genetic diversity before the emergence of delta. This might mean that the time interval for the next variant of concern would take longer than the time it took to go from alpha to delta. It doesn't mean it necessarily will, or won't happen

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We are effectively talking about a temporary respite, by no means the end of the road. @ArisKatzourakis
Misc.


As to the goal of reaching herd immunity— “With the emergence of Delta, I realized that it’s just impossible to reach that,” says Müge Çevik University of St. Andrews. Via @ScienceMagazine @kakape


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1357
Dollar Index 95.54
Japan Yen 114.32
Swiss Franc 92.58
Pound 1.3405 
Aussie 0.7289
India Rupee 74.22
South Korea Won 1184.25
Brazil Real 5.6025
Egypt Pound 15.6998
South Africa Rand 15.54

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Where Did It All Go Wrong for Emerging Markets? @markets @johnauthers
Emerging Markets


The basic facts are clear enough. The currencies of these countries, as measured by the JPMorgan EM FX index, have dipped to an 18-month low, approaching the all-time trough during last year’s Covid-19 shutdown. 

And earlier this week, their stocks, as measured by the MSCI emerging markets index, dropped to a new low compared to the developed world (represented by the MSCI World index):  

The big four emerging markets are still below the peak set on Halloween 2007. 

Even though China was critical in helping the world through the Great Recession, they have consistently lagged behind the developed world since then.
This was ironic because one of the key arguments made for the BRICs 20 years ago was “decoupling.” 

As these huge economies reached maturity and built thriving consumer markets, the theory was that they would move independently. 

Even if the U.S. and western Europe went into recession, the argument went, the emerging markets would be fine.
In fact, experience was the opposite. As seen in the charts, from 2001 to 2011, emerging markets were a leveraged play on the developed world. 

The better developed markets did, the more EM outperformed them, and vice versa. This is the polar opposite of decoupling. 

For a decade, when asset allocators felt “risk-on” they would put even more into emerging markets. These days, they prefer developed markets, however good their risk appetite is.
The perceived macro underpinnings of the emerging world have also ceased to help. 

Previously, the boom in commodities — especially industrial metals — boosted EM. 

High demand for metals showed China was in good shape, the argument went, and meant money for Brazil. 

The entire emerging market complex tended to move in line with bull and bear markets in industrial commodities. 

No longer. Metals staged a massive rally after the Covid shutdown, and it hasn’t helped emerging stocks a bit:

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In 1998, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the House of @HouseofCommons There is no way in which one can buck the market. from Monday, August 13, 2018
Emerging Markets



He said, “Don’t get high on your ambitions. You won’t be able make money on the back of this nation. You won’t be able to make this nation kneel.” [They have already made a ton of money and you are kneeling, Mr. President]
And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’ [In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]


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WHO regional overviews Epidemiological week 8-14 November 2021 African Region .@WHO
Africa


The case incidence rates in the African Region have continued to decline since July, with a 33% decrease reported as compared to the previous week. 

However, 31% (15/49) of the countries in the region reported an increase of >10% in new cases as compared to the previous week

Over 500 new deaths were reported this week, similar to the previous week's figures. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

South Africa (1926 new cases; 3.2 new cases per 100 000 population; similar to the previous week)

Ethiopia (1584 new cases; 1.4 new cases per 100 000; a 25% decrease)

Cameroon (1371 new cases; 5.2 new cases per 100 000; a 26% decrease).
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (157 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000 population; similar to the previous week’s figures)

Ethiopia (82 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; similar to the previous week’s figures)

Nigeria (55 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 450% increase)

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 84 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa

All countries are currently below the peak of their infection curve.

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Ethiopia’s civil war: one man’s journey from entrepreneur to militant @1843mag
Africa


Solomon Girmay knew that the enemy was within striking distance. As the sun rose over the mountains behind the town of Debark, streets that were once packed with tourists visiting the imperial ruins and natural spoils of the Amhara region in northern Ethiopia now bristled with soldiers, ears glued to their radios. 

While Solomon gulped down his breakfast coffee, restless young men armed with machetes roamed the streets.

It was early September and Ethiopia’s civil war had been raging for almost a year, pitting government troops against rebel fighters from Tigray, the region north of Amhara. 

In recent weeks, Tigrayan forces had been pushing southwards. Now, the mayor of Debark, who had spent the night shouting orders through a loudspeaker, urged residents to pick up any weapon they could find and rush to the battlefield.

Solomon didn’t need telling twice; he’d heard enough terrifying stories about Tigrayan fighters to make the idea of staying put seem suicidal. 

He stuffed bread, honey and bullets into his rucksack, grabbed his rifle and said goodbye to his wife and four children.

Things had been looking up for Solomon before civil war broke out a year ago. The tour operator he ran with an Italian friend in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, was preparing to welcome tourists back to the country after months of covid-related travel restrictions. 

Business had been brisk before the pandemic, particularly in tourist hotspots near Debark: the Simien mountains (the “roof of Africa”) and Gondar, the old imperial capital where the ruins of a 17th-century castle still tower over ramshackle cottages and cobbled lanes. 

Though the return of foreign visitors was promising, Solomon also felt a growing sense of unease: the drumbeat of war, once faint and far-off, was becoming harder to ignore.

In April 2018 Solomon had celebrated the appointment of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. 

Abiy grabbed power on the back of public protests against the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (tplf), which had dominated Ethiopia’s coalition government since 1991. 

Despite representing only 6% of the population, the tplf’s military prowess helped it triumph over Ethiopia’s other ethnic factions. 

Solomon blamed the tplf for decades of bitter division between Ethiopia’s more than 80 ethnic groups: the tplf had made ethnicity a core part of the federal constitution, giving each group the right to form its own region or secede altogether. 

Abiy was an Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, and pledged to forge unity.

There had been some progress on the tplf’s watch: the economy had grown at around 10% each year for the past decade and tourism was flourishing, aided by new, Chinese-built roads, power lines and a gleaming railway. 

But Solomon was an Amhara, Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group from a historically powerful region of Ethiopia, which had produced many of the country’s most renowned rulers. 

Solomon reckoned the tplf depicted the Amhara as the face of an unpopular feudal empire and denigrated their history.

Solomon had come a long way from the remote village where he’d grown up. Yet even as his tourism business took off, he felt excluded from Ethiopia’s nascent middle-class. 

He thought the elite in the capital were hoarding the country’s wealth: “The rich got rich and the poor got poor.” The media were censored and even peaceful opposition was stifled. 

“There was no freedom,” said Solomon. “No freedom of speech or freedom of education.”

When Debark went online in the 2010s Solomon railed against the tplf on Facebook and organised protests against the regime. (He had voted only once in his life, in 2005, in an election he believed was stolen by the tplf.) 

At first, the internet felt like a safe space to campaign against the government. Then some of his friends were arrested and put in prison. Solomon went quiet.

But with Abiy in power Solomon felt energised. Abiy blamed the tplf for everything that had gone wrong in Ethiopia in the past 30 years. 

Solomon liked Abiy’s pride in his country and admired him for attempting to make peace with neighbouring Eritrea. He applauded when Abiy removed Tigrayans from the machinery of power.

Solomon hoped Ethiopia might be inching towards democracy after decades of authoritarianism. His faith in politics renewed, he even decided to run as a representative for Debark in the next elections – not because he wanted to be a politician (he would have no chance of beating the ruling-party candidate), but to feel as though he was helping Ethiopia. 

“My goal was just to increase democracy...I’d like to be a diplomat, just serving my country.”

Yet the changing of the guard in Addis Ababa brought uncertainty as well as optimism. Despite strong talk, Abiy’s government was weak and vigilantism spread across the country. 

In 2018 ethnic violence forced more than 3m people from their homes, including many Amharas. 

The prime minister appeared untroubled by the turmoil, more concerned with showing off the new parks, museums and high-rises he was building in Addis Ababa.

On Facebook, Solomon denounced attacks against Amharas, calling them genocide. Firebrand nationalists in the region claimed the tplf was behind the violence – its aim to wipe out its historical rival – and demanded a response. Why was Abiy doing nothing? 

In 2019 Solomon joined the National Movement of Amhara, a new political party that promised to defend Amharas and reclaim swathes of land which, it alleged, the tplf had stolen. 

For the first time there was a party that spoke to Solomon as an Amhara first and an Ethiopian second. “Ethiopia and Amhara are two sides of the same coin,” Solomon told me.

 “But we in Amhara are being intentionally targeted by a small clique – the tplf. So we have to defend ourselves.”

It was then that, like many Amharas, Solomon decided to invest in his first gun, a second-hand Kalashnikov.

Solomon is an unlikely militant. A former teacher who spends his evenings tutoring his children in English and geography, he prefers reason to war talk. 

When we met he seemed like a pillar of calm in a sea of paranoia: he chose his words carefully, pausing before difficult questions, confessing the limits of what he knew about the war on his doorstep. 

But after a gruelling year of horror-strewn conflict, Solomon was every inch the hardliner. So was almost everyone around him.

Following months of escalating tensions and military build-up on both sides, civil war erupted late last year. The tplf attacked government military bases in Tigray, pleading self-defence against federal forces massing on its borders. 

Abiy sent in troops and fighter jets. The fighting almost immediately sparked a wider ethnic conflagration.

Paramilitaries from Amhara flooded into Tigray, annexing disputed land and murdering Tigrayan civilians. 

In a matter of weeks, tens of thousands of Tigrayans had fled to Sudan. Troops from Eritrea joined the fray as Abiy’s allies unleashed an orgy of destruction. 

Towns in Tigray were plundered, their factories stripped bare, fields burnt to ashes, shops and banks emptied and vandalised.

Civilians were raped and slaughtered – many thousands are believed to have died. An American government report described it as ethnic cleansing.

Like many in Amhara, Solomon doesn’t talk much about what happened in Tigray. For him, the destruction was a terrible side-effect of a war the tplf began: he can’t see how Ethiopia can be at peace while the tplf exists. 

He is even more uncompromising about the disputed territories, rubbishing the idea that both groups have reasonable claims over the land, or could share it: 

“In short, it is a question of identity. Tom can’t be Solomon and Solomon can’t be Tom. It’s all about identity.”

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Ethiopia’s civil war: one man’s journey from entrepreneur to militant @1843mag [continued]
Africa


In recent months the balance of power has shifted again. The tplf pushed southwards to break a government-imposed siege that put 5m Tigrayans at risk of starvation. 

Reports have emerged of Tigrayan forces gang-raping Amhara women, and looting schools and hospitals. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been forced from their homes.

Until September, the closest Solomon had got to the war was watching the news and speaking to paramilitaries who passed through Debark. But on that sunny morning, he finally saw it for himself.

In October, during a lull in the fighting in northern Amhara, I joined Solomon on a trip to the battlefield of Chenna where he’d travelled with his rifle and rucksack just a few weeks earlier. 

The village is perched on a cliff over a deep valley, a short drive up from Debark; the grass was thick and green with a smattering of yellow daisies. 

A group of us – journalists and locals – wandered into what remained of the village, through woods and across streams, gingerly avoiding the rotting corpses of Tigrayan fighters who lay unburied in the fields.

Solomon says he didn’t fire a shot when he went, but played a supporting role, carrying water and food to the troops (a mixture of federal soldiers, Amhara paramilitaries and local youth militias) and tending to the wounded. 

On a nearby hillside, he stood behind men with machineguns and mortars who bombarded the village where the Tigrayan fighters were stationed. 

“I’m a pillar in my family, a breadwinner, so they don’t let me get too close,” he said. 

When his wife and children phoned to check up on him, he ducked for cover to muffle the sound of close artillery.

He remembers being surrounded by Orthodox priests, who carried with them a painting of St Gabriel for good luck, and sang and prayed for the troops. 

He saw people die in front of him: “I won’t ever forget that, really. Never in my life.” 

On the fourth day of fighting, as wind and rain pounded the hillside, the Tigrayans began their retreat. 

What exactly happened next is murky. According to official accounts, fleeing rebels murdered scores of civilians. 

Some residents say their loved ones were tied up and shot; the leader of Chenna village alleges that a family of six was among the dead. 

Fenta Terefe, an official in Debark who has spent the past two months showing journalists the battlefield, claims that as many as 200 civilians died.

It isn’t clear whether a cold-blooded massacre of this scale really took place. The attorney-general’s office in Addis Ababa, which might usually be expected to claim a higher death toll from alleged tplf atrocities, recently said that 96 civilians had been killed in northern Gondar. 

Human-rights researchers believe executions did take place, but don’t know how many. The blurred line between civilian and combatant makes it even harder to determine the true extent of any war crime.

For Solomon, the events in Chenna simply confirmed his worst fears about the brutality of the tplf. 

Had Tigrayan forces captured Debark they would have massacred civilians, he had no doubt. 

“We can all imagine what would happen – it’s obvious,” he told me. “Retaliation.” He said he’d stop at nothing to prevent Debark falling. “I really do not want to see their faces anymore.”

A few weeks later the war heated up again. Solomon and I met between rounds of fighting. The tension was oppressive, hanging over the city of Gondar like a thick fog. 

As the military tide turned against Abiy, his forces were demoralised and divided: the war was beginning to slip from their grasp. 

The tplf had claimed two strategically important towns and threatened to keep marching south. Having admitted that the army could no longer be counted on, Abiy declared a state of emergency and urged ordinary Ethiopians to prepare to fight.

In Addis Ababa Tigrayans have been rounded up and slung into makeshift detention centres. Elsewhere they are even more vulnerable. 

Two weeks ago a Tigrayan university lecturer in the Amhara region was murdered by security forces. 

In Gondar there have been calls to intern into camps the few Tigrayans who still live there.

Solomon assured me that such moves were intended simply to distinguish tplf supporters from innocent Tigrayans, who would be left untouched. 

But he added, his voice hardening, that for those with a “tplf agenda” there would be no tolerance. 

“If someone is going to kill me in my home I’m not just going to sit there and do nothing, am I?”

Feelings towards foreigners, particularly foreign journalists, have soured: officials routinely accuse them of backing the tplf. 

As we ate lunch in a popular restaurant, Solomon and I were arrested. We were released after several hours, but only once the police chief recognised Solomon as a family friend.

Nobody knows what might happen if the tplf and its new ally, a rebel group called the Oromo Liberation Army, launch an assault on Addis Ababa. Solomon scoffs at the idea that the tplf would agree to a ceasefire. 

Like most Amharas he is sure the tplf is fighting to enthrone itself again. “We really do not want this protracted war,” Solomon said. “But it’s a battle for survival. We really do not want to be oppressed anymore.”

At the heart of Ethiopia’s crisis is a violent rupture in the social fabric: each side utterly mistrusts the other. And the situation is getting worse. 

Tigrayans say that the events of the past year amount to genocide: many are demanding independence. 

Some of their neighbours in Amhara might not mind. “Some people say they don’t care,” Solomon said. “Others say it’s unthinkable. I mean, do they have natural resources?”

These are questions for the future. The last time I texted Solomon he sounded more resolute than ever. 

“Everyone is ready to go to the front line,” he said. “No choice.” This time he would do more than just support the troops. “I am ready to fight from now on.”



Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.



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February 1st 2021 The genie out of the bottle @AfricanBizMag
Africa


“Everybody else is going to start wanting more freedom within the constitution. It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country. If he put more resources into Tigray he’s going to lose more control of the other regions.''

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November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa

 




PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst



 

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Sudan minister: Return to pre-coup arrangement unrealistic @AP H/T @DanielSSchearf
Africa


A pro-military minister in Sudan says time is running out for the country’s deposed prime minister to agree to take a post in a military-led government after top generals seized power last month.
Security forces, meanwhile, opened fire on thousands of anti-coup protesters in the capital, Khartoum, and its twin city of Omdurman, killing at least 15 people, according to doctors. 

Wednesday’s tally was the highest daily count of people killed since the Oct. 25 coup.
The crackdown on protesters has come as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Africa to boost thus-far unsuccessful U.S. diplomatic efforts to resolve the deepening conflicts in Ethiopia and in Sudan.
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is currently under house arrest in the capital of Khartoum. 

He and more than 100 other government officials were detained during the coup. Many have been kept in undisclosed locations.
“The country cannot wait forever, so if he doesn’t take the job, then someone else will definitely take it,” Gibreil Ibrahim, the finance minister of the deposed government, told The Associated Press late Tuesday.

Speaking from his office in Khartoum, Ibrahim said calls by some pro-democracy groups, the United States and its western allies to return the pre-coup transitional government are “unrealistic.” 

Negotiations have focused on convincing Hamdok to lead a technocratic Cabinet that runs day-to-day affairs, he said.

Ibrahim, 66, is a rebel leader who joined the government earlier this year after the transitional administration reached a peace deal with a rebel alliance, ending years of civil war. 

He was one of those leading protests against Hamdok and others in Khartoum before the top generals initiated their coup.
He spoke to the AP ahead of rallies Wednesday in Khartoum and other cities across the country against the military’s takeover. 

Authorities have shut bridges linking Khartoum and its twin city of Omdurman and tightened security across the capital. 

Security forces fired live ammunition and tear gas at anti-coup protesters in at least one location in Khartoum, according to activists.
The Sudan Doctors Committee said most of the killings took place in Khartoum’s district of Bahri. 

It said dozens of others were wounded, as security forces used what the committee called, “brutal repression” against protest rallies.
A spokesman for Sudanese police did not respond to calls seeking comment.
The top U.S. diplomat for Africa, Molly Phee, condemned the violence against protesters and called for “the respect and protection of human rights in Sudan.”
Magdy Mohamed Osman, a researcher with Human Rights Watch in Sudan, said the developments show the military has taken “their power grab” to a new level. 

He added that security forces have employed “extreme levels of brutality” against the protesters - including attacking health care facilities.

Wednesday’s fatalities brought the death toll since the Oct 25 coup to at least 39 people killed and hundreds wounded in protests since Oct. 25, according to the doctors committee.

An advocacy group said that Sudan has been experiencing a near-total telecommunications blackout amid Wednesday’s protests. 

NetBlocks said on Twitter that internet access remains largely disrupted across the country since the coup, despite a court ruling to restore services.
The Sudanese military seized power Oct. 25, dissolving the transitional government and arresting dozens of officials and politicians. 

The takeover upended a fragile planned transition to democratic rule, more than two years after a popular uprising forced the removal of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir and his Islamist government.
The coup has drawn international criticism and massive protests in the streets of Khartoum and elsewhere in the country for the past three weeks.
The U.S. has retaliated for the coup by suspending $700 million in direct financial assistance. 

The World Bank also suspended disbursements for its operations in Sudan, whose economy has been battered by years of mismanagement and sanctions. 

It also was dealt a blow when the oil-rich south seceded in 2011 after decades of war, taking with it more than half of public revenues and 95% of oil exports.
Ibrahim, who earned a PhD in economy at Japan’s Meiji University, urged the international community to weigh on the policies of the new government, regardless those leading it. 

He said it doesn’t matter who the next prime minister is. “If the policies are good, then Sudan should receive financial support,” he said.
Cracks, meanwhile, have started to surface among members of the broader pro-democracy movement. 

The main protests groups have insisted on the military fully handing power over to civilians.
Other political parties and groups have demanded a return to the power-sharing deal that established the deposed transitional government late in 2019, as well as a full handover to civilians to lead the transition to democracy.
Ibrahim, however, dismissed such demands. He argued that the situation has changed since the coup - an apparent reference to military’s tightening grip on power.
“It is rather unrealistic to say, ‘Either we turn to October 23rd or 24th or we are not going to talk to you,’” he said. “There is a new reality, and we need to look into it.”
Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan reappointed himself as the chairman of newly formed sovereign council, in a move that angered the protesters and frustrated the U.S. and its western allies.
Phee, the U.S. diplomat, met Tuesday with Hamdok, Burhan and others, part of ongoing mediation efforts to reach a compromise between civilians and the generals.
Burhan said the leaders of Sudan were willing to engage in dialogue with all political forces without conditions. 

He also said the military have already started releasing political prisoners who don’t face criminal charges.
Ibrahim said those detained, including Hamdok, would be free “very soon.”
“I don’t expect these people to stay in detention for long,” he said.

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Our revolution is bulletproof. @LaurenBinDC
Africa



#Sudan's protest movement puts out a new series of videos, in English here, about their ongoing response to the #SudanCoup:

JUN-2019 :: Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.


The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, the protestors could have been our wives, children. 
The other vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. 

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The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street
Africa



“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

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The monetary policy committee increased the repurchase rate to 3.75% from a record-low 3.5%, Governor Lesetja Kganyago said Thursday That’s the first hike since November 2018 and follows 300 basis points of easing last year.
Africa


The rand was 1% weaker by 4:20 p.m. in Johannesburg, having earlier traded as much as 1.7% lower after the Turkish central bank’s decision to cut rates for the third time in as many months triggered a plunge in the lira.

“We needed to send the right message to global financial markets, given what’s happening in Turkey,” said Gary Booysen, a portfolio manager at Johannesburg-based brokerage Rand Swiss. 

“This sets us apart from emerging market peers and shows a prudent and conservative Reserve Bank.”

The implied policy rate path of the central bank’s quarterly projection model now indicates one 25-basis point rate increase in each of the next 12 quarters.

 While that could take the benchmark upto 6.75% by the end of 2024, that is “unlikely to actually happen,” said Peter Attard Montalto, head of capital markets research at Intellidex.

The central bank cut its economic growth forecast for 2021 to 5.2% from 5.3%. The recovery would have been stronger were it not for deadly riots and port stoppages that disrupted activity in the third quarter, it said.

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Nigeria Q3 2021 GDP grew 4% vs 5% in Q2 2021: @MwangoCapital
Africa

"Nigeria’s government expects the economy to expand 2.5% this year, after contracting 1.92% last year"

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Ghanas government to take a break from issuing Eurobonds: @MwangoCapital
Africa

"Our spreads have widened & for that reason nobody will go to the market as a country to borrow because the rate will be too high. If next year these conditions remain, we will not go to the market"

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Dar es Salaam will add more people in next 15 years than the last 50 years combined! @drmwarsame
Africa

Try to imagine the level of urban investment & transformation required to double the population & to absorb 7m more inhabitants in a single urban center within 15 years.



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Williamson Tea reports H1 2021 Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           133.75
Total Shares Issued:          17512640.00
Market Capitalization:        2,342,315,600
EPS:             -8.31
PE:                 -16.095

Williamson Tea reports H1 Earnings through 30.09.2021 versus 30.09.20

H1 Revenue 1.347974b versus 1.907878b

H1 Profit [Loss] from operations before Tax [69.431m] versus [19.312m]

H1 Increase in fair value of biological assets 43.475m versus 60.816m

H1 Profit [Loss] before Taxation [3.270m] versus 45.223m

H1 Profit [Loss] for the period [7.783m] versus 33.917m

H1 EPS [0.63] versus 1.50 

Company Commentary 

Oversupply of tea from Kenya against stagnant and possibly falling demand has resulted in very difficult trading condinditions. 

Buyers throughout the world can be selective and with increased commoditisation of our tea the values represented by amongst other things, certifications, ethical produce, soil and trees preservation, tree planting, renewable energy, good teas sustainably grown, still add up to lower prices and decreased returns.
Continuous efforts are being made to increase competition however progress is slow with tea buyers often sticking to tried and trusted products even if they pay more for them.

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Kapchorua Tea Company Ltd.reports H1 2021 Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           81.00
Total Shares Issued:          7824000.00
Market Capitalization:        633,744,000
EPS:             0.9
PE:                 90.000

Kapchorua Tea reports H1 Earnings through 30.09.2021 versus 30.09.20

H1 Revenue 653.923m versus 669.735m

H1 Profit [Loss] from operations before Tax 17.543m versus [5.628m]
H1 Increase in fair value of biological assets 6.599m versus [21.240m]
H1 Profit [Loss] before Taxation 36.648m versus [16.906m]
H1 Profit [Loss] for the period 25.654m versus [12.680m]
H1 EPS 3.28 versus [1.62]

Company Commentary 

The supply and demand equation remains in favour of demand with difficult trading conditions as a result.
Kapchorua’s success to break into new markets is to be welcomed and this has resulted in increased demand and better prices.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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