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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 08th of December 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBLE @nimsdai
Misc.

I don’t think anyone thought I was serious when I announced I was going to summit all 14 #8000ers in 7 months. People said it’s like ‘swimming to the moon’, because it just seemed so impossible.

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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics


"Men respond as powerfully to fictions as they do to realities [and] in many cases they help to create the very fictions to which they respond."

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Russia 🇷🇺 #Realpolitik par excellence. @vtchakarova
Law & Politics

Russia 🇷🇺 is currently enjoying its best relationship with  second global economy China 🇨🇳 as compared to any foreign powers (#Dragonbear) and has just cemented its traditionally stable & good relationship with potential third global economy India 🇮🇳. #Realpolitik par excellence.

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5 DEC 16 :: The Parabolic Rebound of Vladimir Putin
Law & Politics


So much has happened in 2016, from the Brexit vote to President-elect Trump, and it certainly feels like we have entered a new normal. 

One common theme is a parabolic Putin rebound. At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded. The intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands, is Vladimir Putin.
In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the shots in Aleppo, and in a quite delicious irony it looks like he has pocketed Opec as well.

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Abiy changed that. An evangelical, he leveraged his Muslim name to build strategic links with Turkey, UAE. Two states now indispensable to his survival. @RAbdiAnalyst
Law & Politics



Ethiopia for centuries shunned the Middle East, saw itself as a Christian state, a bulwark against Arab/Islamic influence.


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وكالة الأنباء العمانية @OmanNewsAgency
Law & Politics


Conclusions

Lots of rapprochement going on the Middle East 

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29-NOV-2021 :: Regime Change
Law & Politics


The Invisible Microbe has metastasized into Omicron and what we know is that COVID-19 far from becoming less virulent has become more virulent.
B.1.1.529 seems to have gone from 0.1% to 50% in just a couple of weeks, when it took Delta several months to achieve that. #Omicron @TWenseleers


"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

this variant is out-competing others *far* faster than Beta and even Delta did #Omicron @jburnmurdoch

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421?s=20
South Africa was where the #Omicron Variant was first identified and cases have exploded there [admittedly from a low base]
Nation w/ fast COVID19 case/day increase past 2wks @jmlukens 

South Africa: 1124% France: 191% Spain: 134% Portugal: 115% Switzerland: 111% Ecuador: 105% Czechia: 101% Jordan: 95% Vietnam: 89% Sweden: 88%
Update #COVID19 in GAUTENG • 2,629 new cases today, 7-day avg up 331% week-on-week Case incidence doubling every 3.5 days @rid1tweets


The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage.
The Open Question is whether it is more virulent. If it is less virulent then #Omicron is breaking the Trend of increasing virulence.

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When a new SARS-CoV-2 variant arises, there are three main questions: (1) How transmissible? (2) How virulent? (3) How much antigenic change? Third question important as it’s the most actionable @jbloom_lab
Misc.


When a new SARS-CoV-2 variant arises, there are three main questions: (1) How transmissible? (2) How virulent? (3) How much antigenic change? Third question important as it’s the most actionable: we can update vaccines & develop new antibodies.

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#Omicron looks set to cause a huge wave of covid-19 around the world @newscientist
Misc.


It remains unclear whether the omicron coronavirus variant causes less severe disease, but even if this is true, hospitals could still be overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases

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Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.

Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. Remember: first UK COVID case was identified on 31 Jan 2020 - first death was reported on 5 Mar.

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the it's mild Tshwane report found that of 166 Covid-positive patients admitted to this 1 hospital in the last 2 weeks, 9 died of Covid & 5 out of 33 admissions aged over 60 died. @TWenseleers
Misc.

And for those who say "but not a single person died from Omicron". Well, that's not quite correct: the "it's mild" Tshwane report found that of 166 Covid-positive patients admitted to this 1 hospital in the last 2 weeks, 9 died of Covid & 5 out of 33 admissions aged over 60 died.

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 45 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.


15 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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Nations w/ most avg COVID19 cases/day @jmlukens
Misc.

US: 119.9k
Germany: 52.1k
UK: 47.1k
France: 41.5k
Russia: 32.2k
Poland: 23.4k
Netherlands: 21.8k
Turkey: 21.5k
Belgium: 17.1k
Czechia: 16.4k

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Nations w/ fastest COVID exponential growth rate (daily/total) @jmlukens
Misc.

Chad: 1.67%
Andorra: 1.57%
Laos: 1.56%
Norway: 1.22%
Liechtenstein: 1.15%
Vietnam: 1.12%
South Korea: 1.09%
Trinidad and Tobago: 1.05%
New Zealand: 1.02%
Denmark: 0.95%

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The Spike gene of Omicron has 25 mutations that change an amino acid. @tony_vandongen
Misc.

Because of the codon redundancy you would expect ~2 times as many silent mutations: 50.
And there is apparently only 1 silent (“synonymous”) mutation.
Random mutagenesis can not generate such statistics.

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Excellent analysis by @IdoIrani about the waning booster effect (for infection) stratified by age group in Israel. @erlichya
Misc.


The worrying part: the rate of decline is most age groups is similar to the 2nd jab.

23-AUG-2021 ::  We have now crossed peak Vaccine Euphoria


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Omicron: Need for speedy vaccine redesign, says Tom Wenseleers @TWenseleers
Misc.


The biologist says that the new variant seems able to infect and re-infect 3 to 6 times faster than delta

Wenseleers: The data shared with the world by South African scientists, though still preliminary, is clearly concerning. The data would suggest omicron is 30 per cent more infectious than delta. 

But on top of this increase in infectiousness, our calculations show that the rapid rise of omicron can only be explained if omicron also displays significant immune escape, being able to re-infect previously infected people or infect vaccinated people three to six times more frequently than delta. 

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In such a situation evolutionary biology tells is that the virus cannot gain a large fitness advantage by becoming more infectious, Instead, selection shifts to immune escape so that the virus can reinfect people. @TWenseleers
Misc.


In such a situation evolutionary biology tells is that the virus cannot gain a large fitness advantage by becoming more infectious, as there are not susceptible hosts left. Instead, selection shifts to immune escape so that the virus can reinfect people.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1291
Dollar Index 96.178
Japan Yen 113.52
Swiss Franc 0.9239
Pound 1.3252
Aussie 0.71249
India Rupee 75.4663
South Korea Won 1176.70
Brazil Real 5.6133
Egypt Pound 15.7108
South Africa Rand 15.847

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Iran’s National Currency Falls to Record Low Over Nuclear Deal @markets
Emerging Markets

Iran’s national currency stumbled to record-low levels after renewed efforts to revive the country’s beleaguered nuclear deal failed to make progress.
The U.S. dollar crossed 300,000 Iranian rials in open market on Saturday, according to two local exchange shops and media reports. The level was last seen in October 2020, when the rial crashed to record-low prices against the dollar.
Four traders at a currency exchange hub in central Tehran said on the phone that they weren’t selling the dollar on Saturday, citing market volatility.

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 93 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa

All countries are currently below the peak of their infection curve.

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Drone power is not going to bring the Ethiopian conflict to a quick end. It has simply created the context for its prolongation. @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa



November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.





Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.





The falcon cannot hear the falconer




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Anti-coup protests in Bahri, Sudan #SudanCoup @markweston19
Africa


JUN-2019 :: Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’


10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
http://bit.ly/2R05o6l

As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, the protestors could have been our wives, children.
The other vision is red in tooth and claw. 

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Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa @IMFNews Seung Mo Choi
Africa


Inflation is rising around the world. In sub-Saharan Africa, one item is driving the trend more than others: food prices. 

Food accounts for roughly 40 percent of the region’s consumption basket—a measure of goods and services used to measure consumer price index (CPI) inflation.
Food inflation increased throughout 2019, on average, across 20 countries in the region where monthly food price data are available. 

After remaining stable around 9 percent (year over year) since the beginning of the pandemic, food inflation started to rise again from April this year to some 11 percent in October. 

The chart below shows how food inflation is outpacing and contributing to the pick-up in overall consumer price inflation in sub-Saharan Africa, which rose to about 9 percent in October, up from around 6 percent in 2019.

On a global scale, the recent increase in food inflation is attributed to rising oil prices (which raise fertilizer prices and transportation costs), droughts and export restrictions imposed by some major food exporters, and stockpiling in some countries. 

In addition, pandemic containment measures disrupted production and imports of seeds and fertilizers and caused labor shortages during planting seasons. 

Importantly, there is diversity across the region—food inflation in Chad is near zero but around 30 percent in Angola. 

This suggests that domestic factors such as weather and exchange rates are important contributors to food inflation in sub-Saharan African countries.

The outlook is highly uncertain. Food inflation and CPI inflation could moderate if commodity prices ease and pandemic-induced global supply chain disruptions resolve. 

However, high food inflation could persist if inflation expectations become de-anchored or supply chain disruptions continue. 

Regionwide, average inflation is expected to edge up in 2021 before easing next year depending on commodity prices and the resolution of supply-demand mismatches.
Higher food inflation would worsen the situation for the countries already facing food insecurity and shortages with a disproportional impact on poor households. 

The number of undernourished persons in the region is projected to have increased by 20 percent in 2020, encompassing 264 million people.
Fighting food insecurity through targeted social assistance and insurance can help populations cope. 

Avoiding trade barriers and improving access to finance, seed stocks, insecticide, fertilizer, anti-erosion measures, and irrigation are also important.

Bread, freedom and social justice were the three main goals of the 2011 uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak


Global food markets are but the perturbation of a butterflys's wing away from a serious tipping point.  Africa Monitor @csmonitor By Aly-Khan Satchu, September 6, 2010


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Kenya’s Shilling Extends Drop Despite Central-Bank Intervention @markets
Africa


Kenya’s shilling extended losses Tuesday after falling to a record against the dollar, defying central-bank measures to stabilize the currency.
The shilling hit a record low of 113.08 per dollar on Monday before paring the decline. I

t traded less than 0.1% lower at 112.75 by 12:02 p.m. Tuesday in the capital, Nairobi. 

It has declined for six straight months through November, and is on track to extend that streak this month.
The currency of East Africa’s largest economy is more than 20% overvalued and likely to extend losses next year, according to Renaissance Capital, which sees fair value at 144 per dollar and projects the unit to drop to 119 next year. 

Still, further depreciation will probably be “contained,” easing inflationary pressures, the investment bank said in a report.
Kenya's foreign-currency reserves dropped as currency fell
  The shilling depreciated even as the Central Bank of Kenya sold notes to mop up excess liquidity. 

It offered 10 billion shillings ($88.7 million) of seven-day term auction deposits on Tuesday and 30 billion shillings of eight-day TADs, as they are known, on Monday. 

That compares with offers of 5 billion shillings on most days last week.
“We intervene just to minimize volatility,” Governor Patrick Njoroge said on Nov. 30.
Meanwhile, the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $8.74 billion on Dec. 2, dropping for the third straight month to the lowest level since June. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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