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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 31st of December 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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Tsunamis also start by receding For years now Central Banks have been enabling governments unwilling to confront structural problems by flooding economies with money. @ELuttwak
World Of Finance


For years now Central Banks have been enabling governments unwilling to confront structural problems by flooding economies with money.  But when we had deflation instead of inflation, the Krugmans told us not to worry ("different this time") Tsunamis also start by receding

29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change
https://j.mp/32AZEK5

A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY [in the markets]
There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 

There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones
I have been warning
The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop
https://bit.ly/2Wzp4Fg
And below captioned is my favourite musical snippet of recent times
Just played #laritournelle with @ESKAonline and some amazing musicians @southbankcentre paying tribute to the legendary #tonyallen @thenitinsawhney
https://twitter.com/thenitinsawhney/status/1459652573812695040? s=20

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It's all garbage. If Biden can't stand up to Putin, Iran and China will just see him as a joke. @Kasparov63
Law & Politics


No more State Dept blah-blah about "cooperation" with Putin's mafia dictatorship on Iran or triangulation against China. It's all garbage. If Biden can't stand up to Putin, Iran and China will just see him as a joke.

Conclusions

This is where I disagree with the inestimable @Kasparov63, Biden has to peel off Putin to escape triangulation. 

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European natural gas futures extend slump and are trading near a 3-week low with downwards trend @SStapczynski
Law & Politics


An outlook for milder weather, as well as a jump in LNG deliveries, has thrown cold water on the record-breaking rally

It was the first non-linear war, writes Surkov in a short story, Without Sky,
https://bit.ly/2YipWvk

Putin's system was also ripe for export, Mr Surkov added. Foreign governments were already paying close attention, since the Russian "political algorithm" had long predicted the volatility now seen in western democracies.
The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilised perception, in order to manage and control

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*Putin´s family office selling sell in front of this news last 10 days - greatest front runner in the last 100 years @Convertbond
Law & Politics



RUSSIA'S PUTIN: SECOND LINE OF NORD STREAM 2 IS ABOUT TO BE FILLED WITH GAS, AND WILL SERVE TO STABILIZE GAS PRICES IN EUROPE.


*Putin´s family office selling sell in front of this news last 10 days - greatest front runner in the last 100 years creating his own inside info.

5 OCT 15 :: Putin is a GeoPolitical GrandMaster


5 DEC 16 :: The Parabolic Rebound of Vladimir Putin


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Xian reported 155 new local cases for Dec. 29, official data showed. That takes its number of local infections to more than 1,100 since the flare-up began on Dec. 9
Misc.


"Xian has reached a live-or-die stage in its fight against the virus," Zhang Fenghu, a city government official, told a news conference on Wednesday.
Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Micron Technology (MU.O), two of the world's largest memory-chip makers, have warned that the lockdown could affect their chip manufacturing bases in the area. 

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They’ll never report this accurately when it happens, but with an Rt of 5+ it’s impossible for China’s zero-tolerance Covid policy to withstand the global Omicron wave without bringing their economy to a complete standstill. @EpsilonTheory
Misc.

They’ll never report this accurately when it happens, but with an Rt of 5+ it’s impossible for China’s zero-tolerance Covid policy to withstand the global Omicron wave without bringing their economy to a complete standstill. No one is talking about this.

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Who is the Italian again? @BasuAshis
Law & Politics


Indian Prime Minister Modi wears Loro Piano, Gucci, Dolce & Gabbana, Bottega Venetta, Versace, Bulgari, Acqua di Parma, and Bruno Cucinelli
Politician Sonia Gandhi wears white cotton saris woven in India
Who is the Italian again?

.@RahulGandhi was mocked for saying this. काश तब सुन लिया होता @SriniSivabalan @srinivasiyc 


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.@CrisisGroup’s annual list of 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2022 is out now!
Law & Politics


1⃣ Ukraine
2⃣ Ethiopia
3⃣ Afghanistan
4⃣ U.S.-China
5⃣ Iran vs U.S. and Israel
6⃣ Yemen
7⃣ Israel-Palestine
8⃣ Haiti
9⃣ Myanmar
🔟 Islamist militancy in Africa

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It’s easy to see a world careening off the tracks. @CrisisGroup
Law & Politics


After a year that saw an assault on the U.S. Capitol, horrific bloodshed in Ethiopia, a Taliban triumph in Afghanistan, great-power showdowns over Ukraine and Taiwan amid dwindling U.S. ambition on the global stage, COVID-19, and a climate emergency, it’s easy to see a world careening off the tracks.
But maybe one could argue things are better than they seem.
After all, by some measures, war is in retreat. The number of people killed in fighting worldwide has mostly declined since 2014—if you count only those dying directly in combat. 

According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, figures through the end of 2020 show battle deaths are down from seven years ago, mostly because Syria’s terrible slaughter has largely subsided.
The number of major wars has also descended from a recent peak. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin menacing Ukraine, states rarely go to war with one another. 

More local conflicts rage than ever, but they tend to be of lower intensity. For the most part, 21st-century wars are less lethal than their 20th-century predecessors.
A more cautious United States might also have an upside. The 1990s bloodletting in Bosnia, Rwanda, and Somalia; the post-9/11 Afghanistan and Iraq wars; Sri Lanka’s murderous campaign against the Tamils; and the collapse of Libya and South Sudan all happened at a time of—and, in some cases, thanks to—a dominant U.S.-led West. 

That recent U.S. presidents have refrained from toppling enemies by force is a good thing. 

Besides, one shouldn’t overstate Washington’s sway even in its post-Cold War heyday; absent an invasion, it has always struggled to bend recalcitrant leaders (former Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir, for example) to its will.
Still, if these are silver linings, they’re awfully thin.
Battle deaths, after all, tell just a fraction of the story. Yemen’s conflict kills more people, mostly women and young children, due to starvation or preventable disease than violence. Millions of Ethiopians suffer acute food insecurity because of the country’s civil war. Fighting involving Islamists elsewhere in Africa often doesn’t entail thousands of deaths but drives millions of people from their homes and causes humanitarian devastation.
Afghanistan’s violence levels have sharply dropped since the Taliban seized power in August, but starvation, caused mostly by Western policies, could leave more Afghans dead—including millions of children—than past decades of fighting. 

Worldwide, the number of displaced people, most due to war, is at a record high. Battle deaths may be down, in other words, but suffering due to conflict is not.
Moreover, states compete fiercely even when they’re not fighting directly. They do battle with cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, election interference, economic coercion, and by instrumentalizing migrants

Major and regional powers vie for influence, often through local allies, in war zones. Proxy fighting has not so far sparked direct confrontation among meddling states. 

Indeed, some navigate the danger adeptly: Russia and Turkey maintain cordial relations despite backing competing sides in the Syrian and Libyan conflicts. 

Still, foreign involvement in conflicts creates the risk that local clashes light bigger fires.
Standoffs involving major powers look increasingly dangerous. Putin may gamble on another incursion into Ukraine. 

A China-U.S. clash over Taiwan is unlikely in 2022, but the Chinese and U.S. militaries increasingly bump up against each another around the island and in the South China Sea, with all the peril of entanglement that entails. 

If the Iran nuclear deal collapses, which now seems probable, the United States or Israel may attempt—possibly even early in 2022—to knock out Iranian nuclear facilities, likely prompting Tehran to sprint toward weaponization while lashing out across the region. 

One mishap or miscalculation, in other words, and interstate war could make a comeback.
And whatever one thinks of U.S. influence, its decline inevitably brings hazards, given that American might and alliances have structured global affairs for decades. 

No one should exaggerate the decay: U.S. forces are still deployed around the globe, NATO stands, and Washington’s recent Asia diplomacy shows it can still marshal coalitions like no other power. 

But with much in flux, Washington’s rivals are probing to see how far they can go.
Today’s most dangerous flash points—whether Ukraine, Taiwan, or confrontations with Iran—relate in some way to the world struggling for a new equilibrium. 

Dysfunction in the United States hardly helps. A delicate transition of global power requires cool heads and predictability—not fraught elections and policy seesawing from one administration to the next.
As for COVID-19, the pandemic has exacerbated the world’s worst humanitarian disasters and propelled the impoverishment, rising living costs, inequality, and joblessness that fuel popular anger. 

It had a hand this past year in a power grab in Tunisia, Sudan’s coup, and protests in Colombia. 

The economic hurt COVID-19 is unleashing could strain some countries to a breaking point. Although it’s a leap from discontent to protest, from protest to crisis, and from crisis to conflict, the pandemic’s worst symptoms may yet lie ahead.
So while today’s troubling undercurrents haven’t yet set battle deaths soaring or the world ablaze, things still look bad. As this year’s list shows all too starkly, they could easily get worse.

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A decade of semiotic arousal when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
Law & Politics



23-AUG-2021 :: There is a fluidity at the Apex of World Power and this brings friction, increases risk and creates ‘’Geopolitical’’ Tail Risks across the spectrum.




29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change came to Saddam’s Iraq and for a while regime change was de rigeur.
https://j.mp/32AZEK5

Muammar Gaddafi was decapitated and the domino effect only stopped when Vladimir Putin decided he was going to put a stop to it and intervened on behalf of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.
Today, the US has exited Afghanistan and the days of a Unipolar World are self evidently behind us. 

We exist in a Tripolar World [US China and Russia] with rapidly emerging Middle Powers. 

I am not discounting Fortress Europe but one senses the Fortress is keener on a more defensive posture unlike the US [notwithstanding its withdrawal from Afghanistan], China and Russia. 

Taiwan and Ukraine are the immediate geopolitical flashpoints.


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It’s easy to see a world careening off the tracks. @CrisisGroup [continued]
Law & Politics

1. Ukraine

Whether Russia, which has been massing troops on the Ukrainian border, will again invade its neighbor remains unclear. But dismissing the menace as a bluff would be a mistake.
The Ukraine war began in 2014 when Putin, angered at what he saw as a Western-backed overthrow of a president friendly to Moscow, annexed Crimea and backed separatists in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region. 

Facing a military rout, Ukraine signed two peace accords, the Minsk agreements, largely on Russia’s terms. Since then, separatists have held two breakaway areas in the Donbass.
What was for several years a simmering conflict heated up in 2021.

2. Ethiopia

But if federal forces, for now, are ascendant, both sides command strong support and could drum up more recruits. Neither is likely to deliver a mortal blow.

More war would spell more disaster. Fighting has already killed tens of thousands of people and uprooted millions of Ethiopians from their homes. All sides stand accused of atrocities. Much of Tigray, denied aid by federal authorities, is nearing famine. 

The wounds the bloodletting has left on Ethiopia’s social fabric will be hard to heal. Neighbors beyond Eritrea could get pulled in. Sudan, another good news story that turned sour in 2021 when its generals grabbed power, has its own disputes with Ethiopia over territory in the fertile borderlands of al-Fashqa and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile, where Addis Ababa has started to fill the reservoir. 

With Ethiopia in turmoil, Sudan—along with Egypt—could see a moment to press its advantage.

3. Afghanistan

If 2021 brought one chapter of Afghanistan’s decades long tragedy to a close, another is starting. Since the Taliban’s seizure of power in August, a humanitarian catastrophe has loomed. 

4. The United States and China

Shortly after pulling out of Afghanistan, the United States announced a new pact with Australia and the United Kingdom to counter China. 

Known as AUKUS, the deal will help Canberra acquire nuclear-powered submarines. 

It was a stark illustration of Washington’s aspirations to move from combating Islamist militants to major power politics and deterring Beijing.

In essence, Beijing wants a sphere of influence in which its neighbors are sovereign but deferential. 

It views dominance of the first island chain—which stretches from the Kuril Islands, past Taiwan, and into the South China Sea—as vital to its growth, security, and ambition to be a world naval power.

Over the past year, while not disavowing its official “peaceful reunification” policy, Beijing escalated military activity near Taiwan, flying record numbers of jets and bombers as well as conducting drills near the island. 

Beijing’s growing military clout and assertiveness have provoked more dire assessments in Washington about the threat of a Chinese assault on Taiwan.

5. Iran vs. the United States and Israel

The nail-biting brinkmanship between Tehran and Washington instigated under Trump may be over. But as hope of reviving the Iran nuclear deal fades, another escalation looms.

6. Yemen

Yemen’s war faded from headlines in 2021 but remains devastating and could be poised to get worse

7. Israel-Palestine

This past year saw the fourth and most destructive Gaza-Israel war in just over a decade, illustrating again that the peace process is dead and a two-state solution looks less likely than ever.

8. Haiti

The Caribbean nation has long been tormented by political crises, gang warfare, and natural disasters. Nevertheless, this past year stands out for many Haitians as particularly bleak. Few expect a brighter 2022.

9. Myanmar

Since the February 2021 coup, a crackdown by the country’s military (known as the Tatmadaw) on mostly peaceful protests has fueled broad-based resistance, ranging from civil disobedience to armed clashes with security forces. A deadly stalemate exacts a terrible human toll.

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.@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 28 December 2021
Misc.


During the week 20-26 December, following a gradual increase since October, the global number of new cases increased by 11% as compared to the previous week (Table 1); 

while the number of new deaths remained similar to the number reported during the previous week. 

This corresponds to just under 5 million new cases and over 44 000 new deaths.

29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change

https://j.mp/32AZEK5

The Invisible Microbe has metastasized into Omicron and what we know is that COVID-19 far from becoming less virulent has become more virulent.
The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage.
The Open Question is whether it is more virulent. If it is less virulent then #Omicron is breaking the Trend of increasing virulence.

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When a new SARS-CoV-2 variant arises, there are three main questions: (1) How transmissible? (2) How virulent? (3) How much antigenic change? Third question important as it’s the most actionable @jbloom_lab
Misc.

When a new SARS-CoV-2 variant arises, there are three main questions: (1) How transmissible? (2) How virulent? (3) How much antigenic change? Third question important as it’s the most actionable: we can update vaccines & develop new antibodies.

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World region COVID 2wk avg case/day increase @jmlukens
Misc.

Oceania: 460%
North America: 156%
South America: 126%
Europe: 50%
Africa: 36%
Middle East: -1%
Asia: -13%

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Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.

Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. Remember: first UK COVID case was identified on 31 Jan 2020 - first death was reported on 5 Mar.

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US, France, & Italy avg deaths/day rising past 2wk while rest of top 10 most avg deaths/day nations on decline. @jmlukens
Misc.

Nations w/ most avg COVID deaths/day
US: 1,546
Russia: 938
Poland: 411
Germany: 265
India: 262
Ukraine: 242
Vietnam: 232
France: 180
Italy: 145
Turkey: 137

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 94 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.

33 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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The whole thing is falling like a house of cards. They know it. We know it. And to those of you who still don’t know it - once you open your eyes and see it, you can’t unsee it. @JamesMelville
Misc.


28-MAR-2021 :: The Pandemic Is a Portal 

https://bit.ly/3szfEo5

The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved though all the virologists who have metastasized into vaccinologists will have you believe its all sunlit uplands from here.
We are once again entering an exponential escape velocity Phase #COVID19
Folks I followed on Twitter for their epidemiological excellence now simply recite Vaccine / Inoculation data like a liturgy.
"“The variants are like a thoroughbred and our vaccines are like a workhorse,” noted evolutionary biologist Sally Otto. @yaneerbaryam 

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You just have to believe in the immaculate infection. @gdemaneuf
Misc.


01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
https://bit.ly/39khd1W

“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow
“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”
“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on.”

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.@Naval said Scientists who support silencing opposing voices are actually priests.
Misc.


Whatever your opinion on mRNA vaccines, you're a fuxxing idiot if you think it's good and healthy for billionaire corporations in Silicon Valley to control public discourse about Covid responses which affect everyone on the platforms the world uses to debate ideas. @caitoz


Whatever your opinion on mRNA vaccines, you're a fucking idiot if you think it's good and healthy for billionaire corporations in Silicon Valley to control public discourse about Covid responses which affect everyone on the platforms the world uses to debate ideas.

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Either way, I see demand for jabs collapsing. @luigi_warren
Misc.


Best case is omicron zips through residual susceptibles in the next few weeks, leaving even jabbed with broad immunity. Worst case is jabbed do not attain broad immunity and are wide open for the next VIE strain, which may be worse. Either way, I see demand for jabs collapsing.



23-AUG-2021 ::  We have now crossed peak Vaccine Euphoria
https://j.mp/384Arar

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There is no end in sight. Also, there is no guarantee the next immunoevading variant won’t be deadlier than Omicron or even Delta. @ydeigin
Misc.

But now we see Omicron arise and reinfect everyone, which means so could the next variant and there is no end in sight. Also, there is no guarantee the next immunoevading variant won’t be deadlier than Omicron or even Delta. 

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.131450
Dollar Index 96.045
Japan Yen 115.127
Swiss Franc 0.9144000
Pound 1.350140
Aussie 0.72591
India Rupee 74.3275
South Korea Won 1189.305
Brazil Real 5.5715000
Egypt Pound 15.704100
South Africa Rand 15.909200

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African Region WHO regional overviews .@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 28 December 2021
Africa


The African Region reported over 274 000 new cases, however, the weekly increase in incidence was smaller (7%) as compared to the incidence of the previous week (53%)

Increases in case incidence of over 50% were observed in nearly two-thirds (32/49; 65%) of countries in the Region. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

South Africa (115 328 new cases; 194.5 new cases per 100 000 population; a 29% decrease)

Ethiopia (19 940 new cases; 17.3 new cases per 100 000 population; a 610% increase) 

Kenya (19 023 new cases; 35.4 new cases per 100 000; a 207% increase).
The Region reported over 900 new weekly deaths, a 72% increase as compared to the number reported during the previous week. 

The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (428 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000 population; an 87% increase)

Zimbabwe (103 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 119% increase) 

Democratic Republic of the Congo (79 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; an 888% increase)


29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change

https://j.mp/32AZEK5

The Invisible Microbe has metastasized into Omicron and what we know is that COVID-19 far from becoming less virulent has become more virulent.
The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage.
The Open Question is whether it is more virulent. If it is less virulent then #Omicron is breaking the Trend of increasing virulence.


19-JUL-2021 Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 29 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa



11 countries are still at the peak of their infection curve.

The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage. The Open Question is whether it is more virulent
https://j.mp/32AZEK5

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The only choice for Ethiopia and ‘all’ her people is either live together in Peace or break into Pieces! #Ethiopia @1_filsan
Africa


Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;


Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.


@RondosForAfrica @Rondos_EU raises the spectre of the Sri Lanka Tamil solution @BBCNewshour  

https://j.mp/3sqMbiV

“Sri Lanka option” for counter-insurgency  Death of the Tiger @newyorker Jon Lee Anderson H/T @jamescrabtree

http://bit.ly/2CVa1bI
Its basic tenets were: deny access to the media, the United Nations, and human-rights groups; isolate your opponents, and kill them as quickly as possible; and segregate and terrify the survivors—or, ideally, leave no witnesses at all.

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Theme of the Year 2021 ...the legendary bath of the Hornbill @drmwarsame
Africa



Somalia power struggle: "The president @M_Farmaajo  will likely be forced to leave in the coming days" @FRANCE24 @Dibjir 



Amid political turmoil in Somalia, France 24 is joined by Matthew Bryden, Head of Sahan Research Think Tank. 

Mr. Bryden takes us to the origins of the current crisis, which began back in April, when President Mohamed tried to extend his term by two years. 

Violent clashes ensued, but a political agreement was eventually reached, explains Mr. Bryden. 

Prime Minister Roble took charge of "organizing the parliamentary elections," but he says the PM was undercut by the president and his loyalists. 

Mr. Bryden describes "widespread, and very credible, allegations of rigging," and now the PM is demanding the "isolated" president "step aside, ideally leave the country, and give the PM a free hand to finish the elections properly."

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Islamist militancy in Africa @CrisisGroup
Africa


Since 2017, when the Islamic State lost its so-called caliphate in the Middle East, Africa has suffered some of the world’s most ferocious battles between states and jihadis. 

Islamist militancy on the continent is nothing new, but revolts linked to the Islamic State and al Qaeda have surged in recent years.
Weak states struggle against nimble militant factions across vast hinterlands where central governments hold little sway. 

Parts of the Sahel have seen spiraling bloodshed, mostly due to fighting involving jihadis, whose reach has extended from northern Mali to the country’s center, into Niger, and across rural Burkina Faso.
Boko Haram’s insurgency has lost the swaths of northeastern Nigeria it controlled some years ago, and the movement has fractured. 

But splinter groups still wreak tremendous harm around Lake Chad. 

In East Africa, al-Shabab, the continent’s oldest-surviving Islamist rebellion, remains a potent force, despite more than 15 years of efforts to defeat it. 

The group holds large parts of Somalia’s rural south, operates shadow courts and extorts taxes beyond those areas, and occasionally mounts attacks in neighboring countries.
Africa’s newest jihadi fronts—in northern Mozambique and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo—are also troubling. 

Insurgents who claim a new Islamic State province in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region have stepped up attacks on security forces and civilians. 

Nearly a million people have fled the fighting. Militants have loose ties to Islamic State networks that stretch both up the continent’s east coast and into Congo’s war-torn east. 

There, another Islamist rebel group—a faction of the Allied Democratic Forces, a Ugandan militia that has long operated in Congo—now declares itself an Islamic State affiliate. It launched attacks in the Ugandan capital of Kampala last November.
Mozambique’s government, which long resisted outside involvement in Cabo Delgado, finally agreed last year to let in Rwandan troops and units from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional bloc. 

Those forces have reversed insurgent gains, though militants appear to be regrouping. Rwandan and SADC forces risk a protracted war.
In Somalia and the Sahel, Western impatience could be decisive. Foreign forces—the EU-funded African Union Mission in Somalia, or AMISOM, and French and other European forces in the Sahel—help keep jihadis at bay. 

Yet military operations often alienate locals and further erode relations between them and state authorities.
There’s little to show for years of foreign efforts to build up indigenous armies. 

Malian colonels have seized power in Bamako twice in the space of just over a year, while the regional G5 Sahel force, comprising troops from Mali and its neighbors, also struggles against jihadis. 

(Chad recently pulled out some of its troops from the force, fearing upheaval at home.) As for the Somali security forces, units, caught up in political bickering, often shoot at each other.
If foreign efforts wind down, battlefield dynamics would undoubtedly shift, perhaps decisively, in the militants’ favor. 

In Somalia, al-Shabab could seize power in Mogadishu much as the Taliban did in Kabul. 

Intervening foreign powers are caught as they were in Afghanistan: unable to achieve their goals but fearful of what will follow if they exit. For now, they appear set to stay.
Even so, a rethink in both places—entailing a greater civilian role alongside military campaigns—is overdue. 

The Sahel governments need to improve their relations with citizens in the countryside. 

Somalia needs to  repair relations among elites; late December saw another eruption in a drawn-out election feud. 

More controversial is talking to jihadis. It won’t be easy: Somalia’s neighbors, which contribute troops to AMISOM, oppose any engagement; and while Sahel governments have been more open, France rejects negotiations. 

No one knows whether compromise with militants is feasible, what it would entail, or how populations would view it.
But the military-centric approach has mostly spawned more violence. If foreign powers don’t want the same dilemma haunting them in a decade’s time, they need to prepare the ground for talks with militant leaders.


Sep 2012 My concern remains that what appear like uncorrelated spikes and paroxysms of violence conflate, become more broad based and amplify.


Turning to Africa



We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa

Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?
This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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@IMFNews Hopes Spur Defaulter Zambia’s Kwacha to Best Year Since 2005 @markets
Africa


Zambia’s currency is on track for a world-beating year as investors bet on the new government’s chances of securing a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund and negotiating a debt restructuring.
The kwacha has advanced 27% against the dollar this year, largely on the back of optimism over the August election victory of Hakainde Hichilema. 

That’s the currency’s best annual performance since 2005, and only the Seychelles rupee has fared better this year. Both were among the three worst performers in 2020.
Zambian President Hichilema’s government is trying to rework as much as $17 billion in external public debt. 

He needs the IMF’s endorsement to advance talks with creditors ranging from holders of $3 billion in Eurobonds to $5.8 billion owed to China. 

Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane plans to conclude negotiations by the middle of 2022. 

The country became Africa’s first pandemic-era sovereign defaulter last year, and hasn’t serviced most dollar debt since.

The currency of Africa’s second-biggest copper producer has also been buoyed by near-record prices for the metal, which makes up more than 70% of export earnings and helped boost the 2021 trade surplus to 73.4 billion kwacha ($4.4 billion) through November, compared with 41.8 billion kwacha a year earlier

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Finally I want to show you why Frontier markets are all about Politics
Africa

Zambia The benchmark 2024 securities rebounded from around 42 cents, climbing to more than 75 cents this week after Hakainde Hichilema’s victory in the presidential election on Aug. 12.
Compared to Ethiopia Now that would have been a great Pairs Trade.

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Angola’s kwanza has strengthened 15% this year, buoyed by surging crude prices, a credit-rating upgrade and a hawkish central bank. That puts it on track for its best annual performance since 1999 @markets
Africa


Angola’s economy, which depends on oil for 90% of export revenue, is forecast to expand about 0.2% this year and 2.4% in 2022, helped by higher crude prices, according to the Finance Ministry. 

The nation earned praise from the International Monetary Fund -- which approved a $772 million disbursement in June -- for reforms aimed at diversifying the economy.
In September, Moody’s Investors Service raised the country’s credit rating for the first time, citing improved governance and debt metrics. 

Angola’s Eurobonds have returned 12% this year, second only to Zambia among African sovereigns.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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