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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 19th of March 2021
 



The Markets have been bracing themselves for a Post Pandemic World
World Of Finance


Therefore, I would be tempering my COVID19 optimism and holding my horses which introduces interesting dynamics into the markets.

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#30Y Treasury Yield now 63bp above its 100D MA. It's close to 3 standard deviations above its 100D MA. This occurred briefly on Feb 25. The last time this occurred was Oct 3, 2018 @GlobalProTrader
World Of Finance


#30Y Treasury Yield now 63bp above its 100D MA.  It's close to 3 standard deviations above its 100D MA.  This occurred briefly on Feb 25.  The last time this occurred was Oct 3, 2018, and was followed by a neg div higher high in yield. Sound familiar? #Gold took off in Nov'18.

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“To me it feels like it is a coiled spring,” said Mark Cabana @Reuters.
Misc.



On Thursday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked to a 14-month high, following a relatively muted reaction on Wednesday, and the yield curve steepened to a fresh 5-1/2-year high.

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The Sands at Chale Island. Photo by @abumburu @kenyapics
Africa



Conclusions

We spent a night in that room with sea chasing below us it was very Heathcliff 

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Putin, in state TV quip, wishes Biden good health after U.S. president calls him killer @Reuters
Law & Politics



Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that people tend view others as they actually see themselves after U.S. President Joe Biden said he thought Putin was a killer, and quipped that he wished the U.S. president good health.

Putin was speaking on national television after Biden, in an ABC News interview broadcast on Wednesday, said “I do” when asked if he believed the Russian president was a killer.

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U.S. & China leveled sharp rebukes of each others’ policies in first high-level, in-person talks of Biden administration, with deeply strained relations on rare public display in Alaska @Reuters
Law & Politics


The U.S. and China leveled sharp rebukes of each others’ policies in the first high-level, in-person talks of the Biden administration, with deeply strained relations of the two global rivals on rare public display in Alaska 

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Top American, Chinese diplomats clash publicly at start of first talks of Biden presidency @Reuters
Law & Politics



The United States, which quickly accused China of “grandstanding” and violating the meeting’s protocol


“We will ... discuss our deep concerns with actions by China, including in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, cyber attacks on the United States, economic coercion of our allies,” Blinken said in blunt public remarks.

“Each of these actions threaten the rules-based order that maintains global stability,” he said.

Yang responded with a 15-minute speech in Chinese while the U.S. side awaited translation, lashing out about what he said was the United States’ struggling democracy, poor treatment of minorities, and criticizing its foreign and trade policies.

“The United States uses its military force and financial hegemony to carry out long arm jurisdiction and suppress other countries,” Yang said.

“Let me say here that in front of the Chinese side, the United States does not have the qualification to say that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength,” Yang said.


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Xi Jinping is both Sun Tzu ‘'The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting'' And hard edged at the same time.
Africa



He has brought Hong Kong to heel, he is prowling around Taiwan like a Lion prowled around our Tent one night in the Tsavo, he has marched 400 kms into Indian Territory and Narendra ‘’Benito’’ Modi has said nary a word.

Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19

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Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro
Law & Politics





''The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting''



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.@FHeisbourg «Le coronavirus, c’est un Tchernobyl chinois à la puissance dix»
Law & Politics



First, they staged their "exemplary handling" of the pandemic in a very loud manner, in order to avoid interest in the regime.

And then they severely punished countries that demanded an impartial international investigation, made up of the best experts. 

Australia, which had insisted on the need for transparency, was imposed economic sanctions and a block on its imports.

The debate on the origin of the virus remains totally open, fundamental and potentially explosive.

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’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.




There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released


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It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later.
Misc.



Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. 

There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.

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"Let’s say, for instance that a Florida panther rampaged through the South Bronx, injuring many people. It would be immediately reasonable to wonder: How could that possibly happen?." @R_H_Ebright
Misc.

"Let’s say, for instance that a Florida panther rampaged through the South Bronx, injuring many people. It would be immediately reasonable to wonder: How could that possibly happen? Florida panthers don’t live anywhere near the Bronx and aren’t normally so ferocious."

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.



“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on.”

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on March 18: + 588,767 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.



Data from #Covid19 worldwide on March 18: + 588,767 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 121,787,317 in total + 10,592 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,691,877 in total

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In the past week new cases continued to rise globally, increasing by 10% in the past week to over 3 million new reported cases @WHO
Misc.




The number of new cases peaked in early January 2021 when there were just under 5 million cases reported in one week. 

New cases then declined to just under 2.5 million cases by the week commencing 15 February.  However, for the past three weeks new cases have increased. 

This week, the Americas and Europe continue to account for over 80% of new cases and new deaths, with rises in new cases seen in all regions apart from Africa, where incidence rates remained similar to the previous week. 

New deaths on the other hand continue to decline and are now under 60 000, since peaking in the week commencing 18 January (when there were over 95 000 new deaths in the week). 

The last time when there were fewer than 60 000 new weekly deaths was four months ago, in the week commencing 9 November.


The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

Brazil (494 153 new cases; 20% increase), 

United States of America (461 190 new cases; 8% increase), 

France (161 159 new cases; 12% increase), 

Italy (155 076 new cases; 12% increase), and 

India (148 249 new cases; 30% increase).

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Poland COVID update: Daily caseload just below all-time record, positivity rate at 31% @BNODesk
Misc.



- New cases: 27,278

- Positivity rate: 31.6% (+2.1)

- In hospital: 21,858 (+347)

- In ICU: 2,190 (-3)

- New deaths: 356

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My concern is that Brazil which was the epicenter of the Virus in May 2020 is once again a Precursor and a Harbinger
Misc.



And sure the numbers slid for around 6 consecutive weeks but they have bottomed out of late.

“I see a huge storm forming in Brazil.” Denise Garrett, vice president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute in Washington

The bottom line: P.1 is 2.5 times more transmissible than the wild-type B lineage. And way more transmissible than B.1.1.7. @bollemdb @obscovid19br 

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett 


Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. Brazil is a global threat @bollemdb

Model-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2


The variant of concern (VOC) P.1 emerged in the Amazonas state (Brazil) and was sequenced for the first time on 6-Jan- 2021 by the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

It contains a constellation of mutations, ten of them in the spike protein.

The P.1 variant shares mutations such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y and a deletion in the orf1b protein (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF)) with other VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa (B.1.1.7 and the B.1.351, respectively).

Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages (4).

The estimated relative transmissibility of P.1 is 2.5 (95% CI: 2.3-2.8) times higher than the infection rate of the wild variant, while the reinfection probability due to the new variant is 6.4% (95% CI: 5.7 - 7.1%).

If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal


We all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'


COVID19 Historic Peaks Deaths a day @brodjustice


I expect th P.1 Lineage to be dominant worldwide in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7

My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.

Therefore, I would be tempering my COVID19 optimism and holding my horses which introduces interesting dynamics into the markets.

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“We now face a serious potential public health crisis along the border.” @EpochTimes
Misc.


Up to 50% of #IllegalImmigrants are testing positive for #COVID19, warns the National Sheriffs Association.

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P.1 lineage acquired 3.5X more S1 mutations than other isolates of the same time within 1/8 the time it took any older samples of that lineage to accumulate all the mutations prior to it’s emergence. @Daoyu15
Misc.



P.1 lineage acquired 3.5X more S1 mutations than other isolates of the same time within 1/8 the time it took any older samples of that lineage to accumulate all the mutations prior to it’s emergence. 

This corresponds to a minimal of more than 16 TIMES faster mutational rate than CLOCK and more than 32X that for a stable VERO E6 culture of SARS-CoV. 

501Y.V3 had comparable, if not even higher rate as it emerged even quicker more recently with comparable amount of sudden changes in the S1.

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A truly sad plot. State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, Population 11 Million. And this is happening throughout Brazil right now. @parolin_ricardo
Misc.


Widespread shortages of oxygen canisters, sedatives, ventilators, beds, staff, vaccines, common sense, leaders, and hope.

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.



In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1929

Dollar Index 91.734

Japan Yen 108.74

Swiss Franc 0.9263

Pound 1.3946

Aussie 0.7759

India Rupee 72.495

South Korea Won 1130.985

Brazil Real 5.5608

Egypt Pound 15.6809

South Africa Rand 14.6840

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OIL MARKET: Brent crude sinking even lower, down 8% on the day to $62.5 a barrel. @JavierBlas [down a fifth straight day LIFE COMES AT YOU FAST]
Commodities


OIL MARKET: Brent crude sinking even lower, down 8% on the day to $62.5 a barrel. It's the biggest one-day drop since last April (and excluding Mar-Apr 2020, and the 2008-09 financial crisis, among the largest one-day drops of the last two decades) 

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More than 15 hours after Hassan announced Magufuli’s death in an address to the nation, there was no official word on plans for her swearing in. @Reuters
Africa




The ruling CCM party called for calm and said there would be a special meeting of its central committee on Saturday.

Magufuli’s death, the first of a Tanzanian leader while in office, opens the prospect that the country will gain its first female president.

The constitution says Hassan, 61, should assume the presidency for the remainder of the five-year term that Magufuli began serving last year after winning a second term.

“The VP has to be sworn in immediately,” opposition leader Zitto Kabwe told Reuters by phone from Dar es Salaam. “The constitution doesn’t allow a vacuum ... I will be concerned if the day passes without her being sworn in.”

“The vice president hasn’t given the impression of significant popularity or influence within the (ruling party),” said Fergus Kell, Africa analyst at the Chatham House think-tank in London. 
“This could throw up some potential challenges in terms of managing competing interests and generating the required support within the ruling party to govern effectively.”

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The Tanzanian situation is delicate and very complex. The very high likelihood that loyal aides and contacts of President @MagufuliJP could have contracted covid-19 @davidmakali1
Africa



The Tanzanian situation is delicate and very complex. The very high likelihood that loyal aides and contacts of President @MagufuliJP could have contracted covid-19 means urgent measures must be taken

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Folks, leaders in Africa don't just get it wrong with health policy (remember HIV/Aids denial), they often also espouse dangerous ideas on nationalism and economics which their citizens cheer @IEAKwame
Africa



Folks, leaders in Africa don't just get it wrong with health policy (remember HIV/Aids denial), they often also espouse dangerous ideas on nationalism and economics which their citizens cheer because it is often read as putting the colonialist and imperialist in his place.

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Corona ni ugonjwa @IssaShivji
Africa



Haina heshima wala utii

Haidekezi wala kujipendekeza

Haina ubaguzi wala ustaarabu

Haipendi wala kuchukia

Huwezi kuifunga wala kuifukuza

Huwezi kuitisha wala kuihonga

Haina uongo wala unafiki

Ukweli wake ni moja tu

INAUA INAUA INAUA

Corona is a disease

It has no dignity or obedience

It is neither flattering nor flattering

It is neither discriminatory nor civilized

Like it or not

You can't shut it down or chase it away

You cannot intimidate or bribe

It is neither false nor hypocritical

His truth is only one

KILLS KILLS KILLS KILLS

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Huwezi kuiua kwa bastola Unaweza kuizuia kwa barakoa @IssaShivji
Africa



You can't kill it with a pistol

 ou can block it with bars

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Tanzania’s Next Leader to Face Predecessor’s Covid Denialism @bpolitics
Africa




Tanzania’s response to the coronavirus will be one of the key issues facing the successor to deceased President John Magufuli, whose unorthodox response to the disease ilicited international consternation.

Under Tanzania’s constitution, 61-year-old Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan is set to take over from Magufuli and serve out his term, which was due to end in 2025.

Magufuli, who died on Wednesday, dominated policy making in the southeast African nation after taking office in 2015, centralizing control in his office and appointing allies to key government posts. 

His death could create a power vacuum in the ruling party, delay or scupper key projects and foreshadow a rethink on the government’s handling of the pandemic.


These are some of the key issues to watch:


Succession

By succeeding Magufuli, Hassan would be the first woman to become president in the six-nation East African Community economic bloc.

Magufuli’s running mate in 2015, Hassan became vice president when he took power and retained her post after he won a second term in October. 

Her reputation as a moderate, consensus-building politician is starkly different to Magufuli’s -- he was known for his abrasive leadership style that earned him the nickname of ‘The Bulldozer.’

Should Hassan be unable to assume the presidency, the next in the succession line is National Assembly Speaker Job Ndugai. 

Ultimately, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party will determine who wields power once the dust has settled after Magufuli’s death.

Coronavirus Response

Magufuli’s successor will need to decide whether or not to reverse course on his controversial Covid-19 strategy, roll out vaccines and enforce the wearing of face masks to bring the disease under control.

The former president drew widespread criticism for his approach -- he declared the country free of the coronavirus, banned the publication of infection data and urged people to pray to safeguard their health.

Despite his denialism, public hospitals were swamped in January and February by patients displaying Covid-19 symptoms and funeral masses became daily occurrences, indicating that the nation clearly had a major public health crisis on its hands.

Magufuli spearheaded a major infrastructure investment drive, and pending decisions on whether to proceed with several mega-projects will now fall to his successor.

They include the construction of a $3.5 billion crude oil pipeline from Uganda to Tanzania’s coast led by Total SA, a long-delayed $30 billion liquefied natural gas development in the south of the country, a new standard-gauge railway line and a hydropower plant.

Investment Reforms

The nation’s new leader will also need to decide whether to run the risk of alienating international investors and press ahead with controversial mining reforms that Magufuli said were needed to ensure the nation derives greater benefit from its natural resources.

In 2017, the authorities asked Barrick Gold Corp.’s local unit to pay a whopping $190 billion tax bill -- a dispute the company settled by paying $300 million and creating a mining joint venture with the state. 

The government has since said it wants to renegotiate terms with other mining companies, including AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., and secure stakes in their projects.

Magufuli also sought to boost local ownership of other industries. 

In November 2019, mobile-phone company Bharti Airtel Ltd. agreed to reduce its stake in its Tanzanian unit to 51% from 60%, after a dispute with the government.


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President Déby uses tanks to arrest rival, as Chad becomes ungovernable @MenasAssociates H/T @Markbohlund
Africa




Chad is heading inexorably and suffocatingly towards presidential elections on 11 April, which would see President Idriss Déby installed for a sixth term

He continues to be supported by France despite the familiar resignation and massive repression of all opposition.

On 28 February, however, that scenario changed after Déby adopted an entirely new approach to getting rid of his electoral opposition. 

The government claims that the courts had issued two judicial warrants against Yaya Dillo Djérou (a.k.a. Yaya Dillo) (b.1976) — one of the main candidates in the April election — but he failed to respond so police were sent to his home to arrest him. 

They alleged came under fire and had no choice but to retaliate.



The truth is rather different. At around 05.00 a unit of the Presidential Guard, including tanks and led by the president’s son, arrived and cordoned off the whole neighbourhood

Eyewitnesses say that the army launched an assault on Dillo’s home with several of its occupants — including his mother, three-year-old son, and three other relatives — being killed

Dillo, who claims that it was an assassination attempt, was spirited away to safety during the confusion and chaos caused by the use of tear gas. 

It later emerged that the arrest warrant related to Dillo’s allegation that the First Lady Hinda Déby Itno had embezzling funds allocated to the fight against COVID-19.  pandemic. 

The French media described the ‘limitless barbarism’ being launched by Déby against an opponent. 

The attack coincided with the government cutting the Internet and blocking communications, which remained disturbed for several days.

Why Yaya Dillo is a threat to the Déby regime

The key question is why Déby acted in this way and why is Dillo a threat to him? Politically, Dillo’s small Parti socialiste sans frontières (PSF) is relatively insignificant but he, personally, is not and poses a potentially serious threat.  

This is because like Déby he comes from the same area, is also from the Zaghawa tribe and, and is actually a relative of the president. 

He is a former rebel leader who rallied to Déby, a former minister, and then ambassador to Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC)). 

Following the termination of his functions at CEMAC, at about the same time as the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, he retreated to his home village amongst the Zaghawa in eastern Chad, from where he began using Facebook to denounce: the government’s many injustices; and the dictatorship that prevailed within the army, administration and state governance.

In early January 2021, he participated in an opposition conference at Tiné, northeast of N’Djamena on the border with Sudan, which was broken up by Déby’s intelligence services. 

Two weeks later, Dillo announced his candidacy for the presidency and two days later there was the attempt to arrest him.



This month there have been increasing reports of cracks emerging within the regime, army and intelligence services

Soldiers are reportedly refusing instructions from senior officers that are close to Déby. It is still too early to tell whether this is the beginning of a rebellion against Déby from within the Zaghawa tribe and there may be a more ruthless crackdown

It remains to be seen which heads will fall within the army, police, gendarmerie and intelligence services, but it may already be too late for that.

As for the 11 April presidential election, the situation is looking very fluid and uncertain. 

Almost immediately after the attack on his home, Yaha Dillo said he was ‘terrified by such barbarism’ and announced his withdrawal from the presidential race.


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Turning to Africa the Spinning Top
Africa




Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming


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306,249 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData
Africa



-41.105% below record high reached in January 2021 


Conclusions 



Looks like the Trough and set for an Up Turn imminently 


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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 65 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa




Mauritius at peak Togo 99% Guinea 98% Ethiopia 95% Botswana 90%



Cameroon reports its largest number of new COVID-19 infections since the start of the pandemic: 3,200

The average number of new infections reported in Ethiopia has been consistently increasing for 12 days


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Make no mistake, things are really bad in terms of #COVID19KE right now These are just 2 runs @LancetKenya_PLK @DrAhmedKalebi
Africa


Make no mistake, things are really bad in terms of #COVID19KE right now  We’re seeing very high positivity rate on samples from various referring clinics/hospitals & general public, denoting an intense phase of community transmission

These are just 2 runs  @LancetKenya_PLK

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Kenya has seen a 44% increase in Covid-19 infections over the past four weeks, the highest in Africa. @ntvkenya
Africa



The number of deaths reported in the country over the last one month have increased by 35%, the second highest in Africa. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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