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Friday 05th of March 2021
 
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Africa


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Octavio Paz Another of the poet’s images is “burnt water,” an ancient Mexican concept which appears in Paz’s work in both Spanish and in the Aztec original, “atl tlachinolli.”
Misc.


Schulman maintained that “burnt water” is “the dominant image of [Paz’s] poetry” and found that the image fulfills a role similar to that of the two sides of the coin in Eagle and Sun? 

She noted: “Paz sees the world burning, and knows with visionary clarity that opposites are resolved in a place beyond contraries, in a moment of pure vision: in that place, there are no frontiers between men and women, life and death.” 

Chiles called the Aztec combination of fire and water “particularly apt in its multiple connotations as a symbol of the union of all warring contraries.”

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The Street Octavio Paz
Misc.


Here is a long and silent street.

I walk in blackness and I stumble and fall

and rise, and I walk blind, my feet

trampling the silent stones and the dry leaves.

Someone behind me also tramples, stones, leaves:

if I slow down, he slows;

if I run, he runs      

I turn :

nobody.

Everything dark and doorless,

only my steps aware of me,

I turning and turning among these corners

which lead forever to the street

where nobody waits for, nobody follows me,

where I pursue a man who stumbles

and rises and says when he sees me:

nobody.

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on March 03: + 448 369 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.


Data from #Covid19 worldwide on March 03: + 448 369 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 115 175 114 in total + 10,855 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,560,285 in total

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10-MAY-2020 :: #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus [again]
Misc.





.@jairbolsonaro ''Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer''

“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian

Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has ‟escape velocity‟ in Brazil.





Brazil’s Covid Crisis Is a Warning to the Whole World, Scientists Say @nytimes 




Conclusions

I expect th P.1 Lineage to be dominant worldwide in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 

My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World. 



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The scenario in Brazil: A variant (P.1) at least 2x more transmissible than previous variants Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. @bollemdb
Misc.



1. A variant (P.1) at least 2x more transmissible than previous variants (much more transmissible than the UK VOC).

2. 17 state capitals have ICUs that are > 80% full.

3. Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen.

Brazil is a global threat

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.@FHeisbourg François Heisbourg: «Le coronavirus, c’est un Tchernobyl chinois à la puissance dix»
Misc.




FIGAROVOX / INTERVIEW - For the geopolitologist, the debate on the origin of the virus remains open and the question of the responsibility of the Chinese authorities remains legitimate. By Isabelle Lasserre. LE FIGARO. March 2, 2021.

François Heisbourg is special advisor to the Foundation for Strategic Research. The geopolitologist is also a member of the Global Commission for Post-Pandemic Policy, an ad hoc group that works in particular on the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.

LE FIGARO. - A year after the global spread of the coronavirus, which has already claimed 2.5 million lives and caused a major economic crisis, everyone seems to have forgotten the Chinese origin of the virus. How come no one is calling Beijing to account?

François HEISBOURG. - Because we let China build its narrative, that of a triumphant management of the virus, which contrasts with the supposed decadence of the West - without bringing it the slightest contradiction

By allowing this rhetoric to settle in, by abstaining from any reaction, China has been freed from the question of its initial responsibility.

Is not this initial responsibility of China, however, obvious and major?

The Chinese are so aware of this that they have done two things in an attempt to erase it. 

First, they staged their "exemplary handling" of the pandemic in a very loud manner, in order to avoid interest in the regime. 

And then they severely punished countries that demanded an impartial international investigation, made up of the best experts. Australia, which had insisted on the need for transparency, was imposed economic sanctions and a block on its imports. 

The other countries drew the conclusion that it was necessary to remain discreet ... 

We therefore find it natural that China waits a year to authorize, in January 2021, a WHO team to finally go to Wuhan, where it has not. not had access to the requested data. 

The team was furthermore composed in an opaque manner, not of experts appointed by the international community, but of members chosen between the Chinese authorities and the WHO, which itself was not very clear in its attitude. vis-à-vis the Chinese authorities during the management of the epidemic.

In the end, there is only one leader who, when he spoke of Covid-19, spoke of the "Chinese virus", and that is Donald Trump ...

Yes, and since he was no longer taken seriously by the rest of the international community, especially for the contempt he had, on most matters, for knowledge and the truth, no one paid attention. 

It is a pity that this reminder of the facts came from him. 

As it is a pity that some have launched explanations too early, such as Professor Montagnier who mentioned an artificial origin of the virus without providing any proof. 

These two elements explain why it is very difficult today to relaunch the subject. 

The debate on the origin of the virus remains totally open, fundamental and potentially explosive

Open because we still don't know anything about how he was born. 

Fundamental because you have to know how it happened to prevent things from happening again. 

And potentially explosive because, if China is at fault, the communist power will be indicted, inside and outside the country. 

The whole narrative of the ideal management of the pandemic will suddenly collapse

If Beijing had communicated from the start, the story would have been digested. 

But China acted as if it had something to hide; not even the then USSR tried to communicate the effectiveness of the disaster management to infer that the Soviet regime was the best of it. all.

What is the most likely hypothesis about the origin of the virus?

Something happened. We don't know what, but in terms of the consequences, it's Chernobyl to the power of ten. 

Chernobyl was an accident. For a week, the Soviet authorities tried to hide it, but they soon had to admit the facts. 

Even the then USSR did not try to communicate the effectiveness of the disaster management to infer that the Soviet regime was the best of all. 

So today, China speaks as if it has achieved a great feat in controlling an accident at home that has affected the entire planet. It's unbearable

For a year, China sat on the Pressure Cooker of its original sin and we were all kicked out of the Garden of Eden ... And all this in a city, Wuhan, with a hypermodern infrastructure in the field of virological analysis, with a P4 laboratory built with the help of the French. 

There are not more than four or five laboratories on earth with so much expertise in virology. And we don't know why the virus left Wuhan? 

The Chinese have all the tools to do forensics and find out where the virus comes from. But they didn't do anything except cover up.





So what do you think happened?

Perhaps the same happened with SARS in 2003, a virus that came out of a Chinese market because of the close proximity between humans and wild animals. 

But if so, why didn't the Chinese say so? And why did they not allow the WHO team to do their job? It is therefore unlikely. 

The second hypothesis is that of an industrial accident, hence my analogy with Chernobyl. Either security processes were not followed or someone inadvertently made a mistake. The virus was able to escape from a laboratory. 

If he started from the famous P4, the Chinese owe us even more explanation. This ultra-sensitive laboratory would never have existed without France. 

However, the Chinese have ended cooperation between Beijing and Paris and driven the French out of the system. 

Today we are still in immediacy and astonishment. But the time for taking stock will come and the people will demand accountability.

Will we ever know?

It took fifty years for Moscow to recognize its responsibility for the Katyn massacre, the execution in 1940 of 22,000 Polish officers ... Today we are still in immediacy and astonishment

But the time for taking stock will come and the people will demand accountability. 

As Jacques Chirac said, it is at the end of the fair that we count the dung… The original sin remains there and we know how difficult the original sins are to forget… The affair of the origins is a time bomb . 

The longer this lasts, the harder it will be for China to explain why it has not said anything. But we'll find out one day. 

In the nuclear field, new technologies are now making it possible to reconstruct a posteriori the past actions of certain countries

As a result, it was discovered that Egypt and South Korea had, at one point, carried out illicit activities. The IAEA called them to account. 

Forensic science in virology has also made tremendous progress. We know how to do things today that we didn't know how to do four years ago. Including with old data. 

The Covid is not a "cold affair". China is not quit, and just because it lives in relative peace today, because it intimidated Australia, doesn't mean that the water that is sleeping is not going to boil. 

One day, the people will demand accountability. Russia cannot have normal relations with Poland today because of Katyn. Some things cannot be forgiven ...

Has the management of the pandemic been so successful in China?

This is the official speech. The Chinese Communist Party, led by a great leader, Xi Jinping, heroically defeated the virus with fewer deaths than Slovakia! 

I do not believe for a moment in the Chinese figures concerning the province of Hubei and its capital Wuhan. 

The images depicting scenes of chaos at the start of the pandemic are more reminiscent of what happened in Lombardy. 

There were bound to be more than 4,000 deaths and China did not handle the pandemic better than Italy at the time. 

In the rest of China, it is indeed likely that there were relatively few deaths. The situation is more like what happened in Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, but also Singapore and South Korea, in the countries that have best handled the pandemic. 

But this has nothing to do with the nature of the Chinese political regime. China was able to react in time, like some countries in the region, including democracies. It was not the autocrats who discovered the perlimpine powder.



success does not depend on the regime but on actions that were or were not taken in time.

And the political management of Beijing?

China immediately decided to handle the matter at the geopolitical level. 

When the epidemic was flaring in Wuhan and factories were closed, the European Union helped China by providing it with masks. Beijing had imposed a condition: no media coverage

The story shouldn't be made public so as not to make the Chinese lose face! 

But when the catastrophe reached Italy, China fully played the diplomacy of the mask, in the media to the extreme its actions and by multiplying, thanks to the "fighting wolves" (the new generation of Chinese diplomats, Editor's note) the declarations on the decline of the West and the lack of mutual aid between countries of the European Union. 

The string was so thick that it was counterproductive in our countries. China is reproducing the same policy today with vaccines. 

She heavily publicized her commitment to many countries, including friends of France such as Senegal. 

However, in terms of vaccination, it does not do better than Europe at home ..


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However, searching for the animal vehicle could be a “red herring”. Cryopolitics of Covid-19 By Frédéric Keck
Law & Politics



There are a dozen laboratories in Wuhan where virologists have worked on coronaviruses since the SARS-Cov emerged in 2003. 

This suspicion has been increased by information, published by Shi Zhengli in Virologica Sinica in 2016, suggesting a direct infection from bat guano to miners who worked in a cave in Mojiang (Southern China) and were treated in a hospital in Kunming in 2013. 

The hypothesis of a lab accident is also confirmed by phylogenetic trees displaying a “frozen evolution” in bat coronaviruses related to SARS-Cov-2. 

An article published in PlosBiology in April 2020 thus connects an outbreak of bluetongue in Europe 2015 to a previous outbreak in 2008, contained by vaccination, showing that the 2008 virus had not been replicating for multiple years prior to its re-emergence in 2015.

The term “frozen evolution” is used when a phylogenetic tree has long branches without mutations, indicating that a virus is stable in a freezer before it escapes and starts mutating again. 

It is also used in evolutionary theory to explain the adaptation of species to stable environments.

The debate on the origins of Covid-19 thus takes place at the crossroads of two cold chains which incidentally meet in Wuhan: one connecting farms and markets between North and central China, the other connecting hospitals and labs between South and central China. 

The problem of biosecurity in the closed spaces of farms and labs is thus connected to questions of maintenance of the cold chain over long distances, which is also at the heart of discussions on vaccines against Covid-19. 

Joanna Radin and Emma Kowal have used the term “cryopolitics”, to contrast it with what Michel Foucault has called “biopolitics”. 

While the debate about the origins of COVID-19 asks who is responsible for “making live” and “letting die”, the maintenance of the cold chain aims requires attentions to the degrees and distances in “making latent life and deferring death”. 

While the debate on the origins of Covid-19 is characteristic of “hot societies”, replaying the origins to regenerate norms, the investigation on technologies of conservation uses modes of reasoning from “cold societies”, mapping the diversity of non-human species co-evolving with humans.

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It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later.
Misc.



Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. 

There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.



“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on.”

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Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro
Misc.


''The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting''

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Sometimes you don't need to look very far to see how manipulated the official data about the 2019 Covid-19 cases is. @gdemaneuf
Misc.


Case in point this graph from the Chinese CDC published on the 26th Jan 2020, showing confirmed and suspected cases by date of onset:

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In 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country that things were already “back to normal,” Liaquat Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance
World Of Finance



Five months later, in March 1930, Hoover said the worst would be over “during the next 60 days.”

When that period ended, he said, “We have passed the worst.”

Eventually, Ahamed writes, “when the facts refused to obey Hoover’s forecasts, he started to make them up.”

Government agencies were pressed to issue false data. Officials resigned rather than do so, including the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And we all know how that turned out: The Great Depression.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.1927

Dollar Index 91.965

Japan Yen 108.41

Swiss Franc 0.9307

Pound 1.3839

Aussie 0.7674

India Rupee 72.988

South Korea Won 1129.025

Brazil Real 5.6708

Egypt Pound 15.6950

South Africa Rand 15.3051

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World food prices rose for a ninth consecutive month in February, hitting their highest level since July 2014, led by jumps in sugar and vegetable oils, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. @ReutersBiz
Commodities



The Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 116.0 points last month versus a slightly revised 113.2 in January.

The Rome-based FAO also said in a statement that worldwide cereal harvests remained on course to hit an annual record in 2020, adding that early indications pointed to a further increase in production this year.

FAO’s cereal price index climbed 1.2% month on month in February. 

Among major coarse grains, sorghum prices increased the most, rising 17.4% on the month and 82.1% year on year, driven by strong demand from China.

Maize and rice prices edged up while wheat export prices remained largely stable, FAO said.

Sugar prices climbed 6.4% month on month amid concerns over supplies in 2020/21 because of production falls in major producing countries and strong demand from Asia. [SOF/L]

The vegetable oil price index increased 6.2% to reach its highest level since April 2012, with palm oil prices rising for a ninth month, lifted by worries over low inventories in major exporting nations.

Dairy prices rose 1.7%, while the meat index posted a modest 0.6% gain. 

FAO said pig meat quotations fell, hit by reduced purchases from China amid heavy oversupply and a rise in unsold pigs in Germany due to a ban on exports to Asian markets.

FAO raised its forecast for the 2020 cereal season to 2.761 billion tonnes from an estimate of 2.744 billion made last month pointing to a 1.9% increase year on year.

That revision reflected a 7.5 million tonne increase in the world wheat production estimate, driven by recently released official data from Australia, the European Union, Kazakhstan and Russia.

The forecast for global rice production was also raised by 2.6 million tonnes from last month on more buoyant production forecasts from India.

FAO raised its forecast for global cereal stocks ending in 2021 by 9 million tonnes to 811 million which would represent a 0.9% decline year on year.

“Looking ahead, current indications suggest a small rise in world cereal production in 2021,” FAO said.

“While most of the wheat crop in the northern hemisphere is still dormant and southern hemisphere countries are yet to plant, FAO’s preliminarily forecast for global wheat production in 2021 points to a third consecutive annual increase, to 780 million tonnes, a new record.”

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Mozambique bread riots may be warning sign on African food security Africa Monitor CSMONITOR By Aly-Khan Satchu, September 6, 2010
Africa



Given the fragility of the food markets, Maputo might well be a shot across the bows of many regimes, who have yet to secure access to sufficient food at sufficiently low prices for their people. Failure to execute on this front, surely imperils many

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Turning to Africa the Spinning Top
Africa



Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa



Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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Ethiopia: Persistent, credible reports of grave violations in Tigray underscore urgent need for human rights access – @mbachelet @UNHumanRights
Africa



“Deeply distressing reports of sexual and gender-based violence, extrajudicial killings, widespread destruction and looting of public and private property by all parties continue to be shared with us, as well as reports of continued fighting in central Tigray in particular,” Bachelet said. 

“Credible information also continues to emerge about serious violations of international human rights law and humanitarian law by all parties to the conflict in Tigray in November last year.”

“Without prompt, impartial and transparent investigations and holding those responsible accountable, I fear violations will continue to be committed with impunity, and the situation will remain volatile for a long time to come.”

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Eritrean armed forces massacred scores of civilians, including children as young as 13, in the historic town of Axum in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in November 2020, @hrw
Africa



The United Nations should urgently establish an independent inquiry into war crimes and possible crimes against humanity in the region to pave the way for accountability, and Ethiopian authorities should grant it full and immediate access.

“Eritrean troops committed heinous killings in Axum with wanton disregard for civilian lives,” said Laetitia Bader, Horn of Africa director at Human Rights Watch. 

“Ethiopian and Eritrean officials can no longer hide behind a curtain of denial, but should allow space for justice and redress, not add to the layers of trauma that survivors already face.”

Survivors consistently identified Eritrean troops by the vehicles bearing Eritrean license plates, their distinctive uniforms, the spoken dialect of Tigrinya, and their plastic “congo” shoes, worn by Eritrean forces since the liberation struggle.

Crimes against humanity include murder and other unlawful acts committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack on a civilian population.

“Hyenas had eaten the corpses on May Quho, so we didn’t collect many dead bodies from there,” said one man carrying the dead. “I counted around 25 remains that could not be identified.” Another said: “The hill was like a graveyard, a ghost hill.”

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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Moody's downgrades #Mauritius' ratings to Baa2, maintains negative outlook. Lower travel & tourism revenues having an impact. @emsovdebt
Africa



But still one of 3 African countries with an investment grade credit rating (with Botswana & Morocco)

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318,359 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData
Africa


-38.74% % below 520,000 record high from January 2021 

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Africa





In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions





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The #COVID19 third wave is unfolding in Kenya as revealed by the daily reported figures and real observations on the ground @DrAhmedKalebi
Africa



Conclusions 



The Near Neighbourhood does not bode well - Tanzania South Sudan at peak Ethiopia 60% of peak 

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.@StanbicKE reports FY 2020 EPS -18.469% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment



Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           83.75

Total Shares Issued:          395321638.00

Market Capitalization:        33,108,187,183

EPS:             13.13 

PE:                6.378 

  

The Kenyan Banc assurance model includes CFC Bank, CFC Financial Services and Heritage Assurance.



Stanbic Holdings reports FY 2020 Earnings versus FY 2019 

FY Loans and Advances to Customers 196.300029b versus 191.194571b

FY Financial Investments 87.583535b versus 70.077921b

FY Total Assets 328.594515b versus 303.624592b

FY Deposits from Banks and Customers 259.970053b versus 224.672913b

FY Total Liabilities 276.863559b versus 254.589827b

FY Net Interest Income 12.795161b versus 13.347740b

FY Non-Interest Revenue 10.442209b versus 11.433073b

FY Total Income 23.237370b versus 24.780813b

Credit Impairment Charges [4.875692b] versus [3.150559b]

FY Income after Impairment charges 18.361678b versus 21.630254b

FY Total Operating Expenses [12.134524b] versus [13.920490b]

FY Profit before Taxation 6.227154b versus 7.709764b

FY Profit after Tax 5.192240b versus 6.380616b 

FY EPS 13.13 versus 16.14 -18.649%

FY DIVIDEND 3.80 versus 7.05 

Cash and Cash Equivalents 95.436759b versus 85.210690b

NPL ratio came in at 15.3% As at 3Q20, NPL ratio stood at 11.8%.

Stanbic bank is currently trading at a P/B multiple of 1.0x

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Stanbic: Dividend Per Share down ~54% while Earnings Per share down only ~19%. Cash from operations up a whooping 53%. Impressive. @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment



Conclusions



FY EPS at -18.469% is a resilient outcome in the circumstances.

NPL Ratio at 15.3% is probably the Apogee for the cycle.

I thought these very respectable results and at a PE Ratio of 6.378 and a Price to Book of 1 this is an attractive share

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J.M. Kariuki was assassinated 46 years ago, on 2 March 1975. @Unseen_Archive
Africa


The day following there were protests at the University of Nairobi. Students carried a sign saying 'British Home Guards Go Home' & processed thru campus with a mock coffin. @AP clip here

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The funeral was held at JM's home in Gilgil. 5,000 mourners viewed his bullet-ridden body. Mwai Kibaki was the only govt minister present. @Unseen_Archive
Africa


The students' representative told the crowd that JM had been killed for protesting 'a new style of colonialism on behalf of the poor'.

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Africa


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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