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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 25th of January 2022
 
Morning
Africa

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The @federalreserve could entertain the novel idea of a sharp interest rate rise a la Volcker
World Of Finance



The FED must believe the Economy is like a patient that needs permanent etherisation

29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change
https://j.mp/32AZEK5

A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY [in the markets]
There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 
There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones

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The Markets Are Wilding Title: Bar, Las Vegas, Nevada Artist: Robert Frank
World Of Finance


Wild volatility like this tends to happen in a bear market, not a bull market.  @biancoresearch

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1485719269564461062?s=20

The only example of this kind of trading before today was Oct 2008.

That was the beginning of the market falling apart, it would go on to decline another 28% until March 2009.

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Amid Pandemic, Tribal-Run Conservation in Africa Proves Resilient @YaleE360 H/T @jmollel
Africa


Africa’s most lauded Indigenous-owned eco-lodge, Il Ngwesi — which hosts rich tourists amid giraffes, elephants, and rhinos above a watering hole on the Laikipia plateau near Mount Kenya — is facing the toughtest times in its 25-year history. 

The Covid pandemic has decimated bookings from the United States and Europe, as it has for tourism throughout sub-Saharan Africa. 

At the same time, drought has pushed cattle herds from neighboring tribes into its protected areas, and the lodge, run by the local Maasai tribe, faces reckless politicians stirring up land disputes and arming bandits.
On a continent where state-run parks often falter, the Il Ngwesi Eco-Lodge’s model of community conservation that integrates people and wildlife is increasingly seen as the best hope for Africa’s iconic megafauna. 

So can the lodge, which was founded in 1996, survive the pandemic and growing security threats in the months ahead with its borders, animals, and finances intact?
The pandemic has been disastrous for African wildlife tourism. Visits to Kenya crashed by more than 70 percent in 2020 and only gained back a sixth of the loss in 2021. 

Visitors to South Africa’s national parks were down 96 percent in the second quarter of 2020, with some recovery since. 

Conservationists have reported a surge in poaching as rural communities deprived of vital tourist revenues struggle to get by. 

Early in the pandemic, the Kenya Wildlife Service, which runs the country’s national parks, reported a 56 percent increase in seizures of illegally hunted bushmeat.
The lodge and lands are run by the tribe as a collective, with decisions approved by annual community-wide meetings.
But Kirstin Johnson, of the Kenya-based African Wildlife Foundation, says eco-lodges, such as Il Ngwesi, that are run by Indigenous communities have proved more resilient to the economic downturn and less prone to poaching. 

They may not have the financial resources of big travel companies, but they make up for that in what she calls “the resilience of ancient pastoralist lifestyles” that depend on good management of open grasslands that benefits both wildlife and cattle.
During the lockdown, Johnson says, she visited three community conservation projects in Kenya, including Il Ngwesi. 

“They were expected to suffer worst from the collapse of tourism,” she says. “It’s been a very challenging time. But in all three, there were no reports of an upsurge in poaching. The wildlife was in good shape.”
The impact on tourism jobs in Africa has been “devastating,” according to the United Nations Development Programme. 

Tens of thousands of jobs, everything from guides and wildlife managers to handicraft sellers and bartenders, have simply disappeared. 

And there may be long-lasting impacts if tourism revenues fail to recover, says Ramson Karmushu, research coordinator with the Kenya-based Indigenous Movement for Peace Advancement and Conflict Transformation (IMPACT), an Indigenous land-rights organization. 

“I foresee the pandemic affecting lifestyles and community culture into the future,” he said, with everyone from crafts sellers to herders and landowners suffering.
Kip Ole Polos, the Il Ngwesi lodge’s chairman, says “the pandemic hit us hard. At one point, we were forced to close down. But now we are fully open again. We have quite a few bookings. But we are reducing unnecessary costs to keep afloat.” 

He agrees that the collective cohesion of the lodge’s Maasai owners is its greatest strength. And his own story embodies what has been achieved in one of the most wild and remote areas of Kenya.
Ole Polos was born almost half a century ago in a boma, a livestock enclosure, on the plains of Laikipia in the center of the country, where his Il Ngwesi tribe of Maasai people raised cattle and fought gangs of poachers and cattle rustlers.
As a youth, he was initiated as a warrior. He was at first hostile when Ian Craig, a rich white settler who ran the neighboring Lewa ranch, suggested that the Il Ngwesi should follow his lead and turn their pastures into a wildlife “conservancy” that would be funded by foreign tourism. 

“I thought it was another way of somebody trying to grab our land. It took us almost two years to be convinced,” he says.
Maasai elders changed his mind. “We ended up volunteering 72 warriors to build the lodge with local materials,” he says

Today, a quarter-century on, Ole Polos is an elder himself, in charge of an enterprise where visitors pay upward of $200 per night for a pool, terrace bar, spa, and the chance to meet with Maasai and experience the savanna wilderness, with its resurging populations of white rhinos, elephants, Grevy’s zebra, aardvarks, giraffes, impala, hyenas, jackals, lions, Cape buffalo, and leopards.
The lodge was initially financed by USAID as a pilot for community conservation in East Africa. Helping to guarantee the project in its early days, Craig was the first CEO. 

The link persists. Craig, a white inheritor of land taken in colonial times, gains good will and respect from his association with Indigenous tribespeople, and the Il Ngwesi tap into his connections, which have secured high-profile visitors such as Britain’s future king, Prince William.
Craig also established the Northern Rangelands Trust, which, with funding from The Nature Conservancy and others, now coordinates security and conservation in 43 private and community conservancies covering an area of northern Kenya larger than the state of Delaware.
But the lodge is run by the community as a collective, with decisions on the land and lodge taken through resolutions in each of its seven villages and adopted by annual meetings of the community as a whole

About a third of the 8,000 Il Ngwesi people live within their 40,000-acre territory, half of which is set aside for conservation, with a buffer zone that can be used for cattle pasture during droughts. 

Most of the rest live on private farmland bought nearby either by the individuals or by the community to ease pressure on the conservation area.
Some 40 percent of the tourist revenue has been spent on development projects, health care, and paying for the children of cattle herders to go to school and even get university educations. 

Until the pandemic cut revenues by more than half, the remainder funded around 40 jobs running the lodge, tending the bush ecosystem, guiding visitors, and ensuring security.
The results over the past quarter-century have been dramatic, for both the Il Ngwesi people and their wildlife. 

“Since 1996, I have seen the vegetation coming back and the wildlife coming back,” says Ole Polos, who has been feted internationally, traveling regularly to drum up business for the lodge, raise funds for a planned fenced reserve for reintroducing black rhinos, and make the case for a form of conservation in which pastoralist communities such as his are part of the solution and not the problem.
“I want to bring nature back to how it was, with people living in it, benefiting from it, and with wildlife happy and big numbers coming back,” he says. 

The Il Ngwesi retain their livestock. “Cattle remain very important to the Maasai,” says Ole Polos. “To be a real man you have to have cattle. They are a symbol of wealth.”
But since the establishment of the lodge, there has been wealth in wildlife, too. Elephants used to rush through Il Ngwesi, fearing poachers, he says. Now they linger. 

“They understand that it’s safe and people who are herding animals are not their enemies.” 

The pandemic has put these advances in jeopardy. Staff have mostly been kept on, with reduced wages. 

But “lately a few have left to join other employment within the tourism industry.” 

His senior staff are in demand as guides to work for outside tour companies and other conservancies.
But there have been other threats, too. “The biggest challenge has been the drought, which hit hard on both pastoralists and wildlife,” Ole Polos says

“We did not have rains the whole of last year.” Drought threatens both their cattle and their wildlife. 

It also encourages invasions from neighboring pastoral communities, especially the Samburu tribes who graze drier land to the north and have traditionally seen the Laikipia plateau as a vital back-up resource.
Il Ngwesi maintains security against such threats with help from the Northern Rangelands Trust, which has become almost an alternative government in the area.
This can be controversial. With state law enforcement fitful, self-policing by the armed rangers of the trust and its members, including Il Ngwesi’s former warriors, is often criticized

The Oakland Institute, a California-based think tank that focuses on land rights issues, published a report in November, Stealth Game, that claimed that, far from promoting community conservation, the trust underpinned “neo-colonial” safari tourism.
“Forty percent of Laikipia county’s land is occupied by large ranches, controlled by just 48 individuals — most of them white landowners,” the report noted

By running heavily armed security militias to keep Samburu raiders and their cattle off the Laikipia plateau, it stated, the trust was “ devastating” both the land and pastoralist communities in other areas.
Kenya’s tourism has always suffered booms and bust, and the pandemic has added a new layer of uncertainty.
“NRT has its failings,” admits Michael Dyer, a third-generation Kenyan who owns the Borana Conservancy and, as a white landowner, is one of the report’s targets. 

“But without it, things would be worse, particularly regarding ethnic clashes, and the potential for Al Shabaab [a terrorist group based over the border in Somalia] to recruit.”
The current conflicts between traditional pastoralism and tourist-funded “conservancies” — whether privately operated like Lewa and Borana, or Indigenous community operations like Il Ngwesi — have their roots in long-standing disputes about land that date back to the British colonial era, says Karmushu. 

The Il Ngwesi people only moved onto their current terrain around a century ago, after British settlers pushed them out of Meru county to the east.
Long-simmering resentment came to a head in 2016, when 60 bandits invaded the core conservations area around the Il Ngwesi lodge. 

Guests were evacuated by plane, and battle raged for five hours before the bandits retreated, leaving one of their number dead.
“The problem started when the Il Ngwesi lodge refused the Samburu access to the lodge for grazing,” one Il Ngwesi ranger told Jacques Pollini of McGill University, Canada, who was researching local land politics for a 2017 report with Karmushu. 

Another ranger said that in the old days, “during severe droughts, [the Samburu] used to move in a disciplined way… They sought permission. They would pay … Now they are not disciplined. They are armed, and they feel they can do what they like.” 

Ole Polos says he tries to negotiate with Samburu elders, but their youth do not listen.
Karmushu says the Samburu youth listen to — and are armed by — Laikipia politicians who hope to gain votes by fanning intercommunal conflicts and making promises of land. 

The area’s former member of Parliament, Mathew Lempurkel, publicly declared in 2017 that he was fighting a “third world war” against white settlers

He was arrested for inciting Samburu bandits during the 2018 elections, and again last September, after Samburu raids left eight people dead and hundreds displaced in the Ol Ari Nyiro Conservancy in northwest Laikipia, which is owned by Italian-born environmental activist Kuki Gallman. 

Lempurkel has announced he plans to attempt to regain his seat in Parliment in the general election this August.
But while politics inflames land disputes, “there are deep underling issues,” Karmushu says. 

“This conflict … will not find solution as long as the stark contrast between large estates, well-endowed in grass and owned by rich settlers, and pastoralist communities impoverished by population growth, climate change and land dispossession, continues to exist.”
Ole Polos acknowledges that “this being a political year is going to be tough on us.” 

But his community is looking to the future. It believes it has secured future funding by leasing 200 hectares of its land to a so-far-unnamed foreign investor to put up a second eco-lodge with 40 beds. But as 2022 begins, the project is on hold.
Kenya’s tourism has always suffered booms and busts amid the country’s periodic violence and political turmoil. 

The pandemic has added a new layer of uncertainty. Some wonder if community conservation can survive and prosper in such an environment. 

But optimists see the pandemic as a one-off, and the raids, invasions, and political intrigue as a last gasp for an old way of life that will die as Kenya’s economy and stability advances — in part sustained by the attractions of its unique wildlife. 

And community control and management of the land and wildlife, they say, is the best way to secure that future.

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My Struggle: Book 3 Karl Ove Knausgard
Africa

No, the headless man could appear in broad daylight, and if I was alone it made no difference that the sun was shining or the birds were singing, my heart pounded and fear spread like fire to every tiniest nerve ending in my body. It upset me more that this darkness could also appear in the daylight. In fact, if there was one thing I was really frightened of, it was this darkness in the light.

Walking here or in similar areas, I often happily indulged the notion that the countryside resembled the sea. And that fields were the surface of the sea with mountains and islands rising from them. Oh, to sail in a boat through the forest! To swim among the trees! Now that would be something.

the shafts of daylight that lent the linoleum floor a dull gleam, and on sunny days caused thousands of specks of dust in the air to shimmer, like a miniature Milky Way.

The street lamp outside shone orange in the darkness. The tarmac beneath glistened the same color. And some of the spruce tree behind it. But the forest behind that was as dark as the grave

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We are living in a Tom Clancy novel @man_integrated
Law & Politics

China heavily escalating its gray zone (and overt) incursions into Taiwainese airspace in recent days, w/ multiple major USN elements in the region.
Turkey rationing power.
UAE being attacked with missiles.
Russia/Ukraine about to go off.
We are living in a Tom Clancy novel.

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24-JAN-2022 :: The Charge of the Light Brigade
Law & Politics


President Putin's Russia is oftentimes compared disparagingly on a GDP basis [the GDP comparison is made with Italy] and Russian power projection dismissed out of hand.

For example, @MittRomney described #Russia as a gas station parading as a country.

Sun Tzu pronounced ''“Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.”
The sheer arrogance and naivete of the Hashtag Warrior #StandWithUkraine @SecBlinken and ''the UK and our partners would impose a severe cost on Russia'' @LizTruss is simply unfathomable.
It is difficult to know who is producing a bigger guffaw in the Kremlin. It is a ''Charge of the Light Brigade'' moment.
The Charge of the Light Brigade was a failed military action involving the British light cavalry led by Lord Cardigan against Russian forces during the Battle of Balaclava on 25 October 1854 in the Crimean War.

The Charge of the Light Brigade BY ALFRED, LORD TENNYSON
Half a league, half a league, 

Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred. 

“Forward, the Light Brigade! 

Charge for the guns!” he said. 

Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
II
“Forward, the Light Brigade!” 

Was there a man dismayed? 

Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered. 

Theirs not to make reply, 

Theirs not to reason why, 

Theirs but to do and die.

Into the valley of Death 

Rode the six hundred.

President Putin has fashioned an extraordinary even parabolic rebound [“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola.''] in Russia's geoeconomic and geopolitical position over the last two decades.

Russia FX reserves hit all-time high at USD 630bn towards the end of 2021. That's about 40% of GDP! @akcakmak 

More than 75% of those reserves are backed by Gold. 

In a World of hocus pocus monetary policy making, the Russian Ruble is the soundest of sound money.

Oil & gas is now only 15% of Russia’s (official) GDP (so even lower, in reality) 

The country is the world's biggest grain exporter, second in weapon’s exports and the largest exporter of complex nuclear reactors.
In fact 2/3rds of Russia's economy is actually services.
In fact My Trade of the Year in the Markets would be to buy The Russian Ruble and the Stock Market. Of course, Timing is everything.

Returning to ''geopolitical'' scenario, it is clear that looking through the deluge of hashtags, Russia has largely triangulated Europe. 

The Gas dependency is real and the asymmetry of military forces very real. 

The idea that Erdogan and his Bayraktar TB2 drones are going to rescue Ukraine is simply quaalude level [Quaaludes ‘’to promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These properties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’].delusion.

There is no stomach for a fight. Furthermore, We exist in a Tripolar World and the West appears to be inviting its own triangulation.
@JoeBiden is in a Pincer with Xi & Vladimir holding the console & ratcheting up the pressure & they own the timing on the Ukraine Taiwan Two Step 

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/14684989803424 84992?s=20
The West seems determined on its own kamikazi.

Putin sees this optimal window of opportunity to test the readiness of US for bilateral talks with Moscow but also the red line for future concessions if Washington really intends to get Russia out of China’s orbit in the long term. Moscow has put its conditions on the table. tweeted @vtchakarova.

and added ''Amid bifurcation of the global system, think of Machiavelli: „There’s nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.“ Because this is what Russia’s doing now''
Will the West deal? Anyone who follows international affairs and who appreciates that outside the Yemen its no longer a Unipolar World has to understand ''The Great Balancer'' has to be accommodated.

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Paul Virilio The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production but in the street,where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine
Law & Politics

Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, “The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

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A metastatic expansion of this Protest
Law & Politics


The ‘’Slaves’’ are now in revolt.

It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed and identify with each other rather than a ‘’boogaloo’’ structure that has been placed upon them.
Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.

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Pandexit in the land of unicorns FABIO VIGHI
Law & Politics


Liberal democracies will be dismantled, and eventually replaced by regimes based on a digitised panopticon, a Metaverse of control technologies legitimised by deafening emergency noise

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Nations w/ high COVID 2wk avg case/day increase @jmlukens
Misc.

Nepal: 1472%
Iraq: 1060%
Kazakhstan: 1008%
Japan: 848%
Bangladesh: 832%
Paraguay: 522%
Moldova: 454%
Pakistan: 447%
Ecuador: 423%
Peru: 365%

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Omicron BA.1 and now BA.2. Denmark 38,916 avg cases/day up 92% past 2wks and well above 447/day avg 30-Sep-2021. @jmlukens
Misc.

Omicron BA.1 and now BA.2.  Denmark experiencing sustained COVID growth for >3months where total cases have increased from 360k (30-Sep-2021) to 1.42M (23-Jan-2022) and still accelerating.  38,916 avg cases/day up 92% past 2wks and well above 447/day avg 30-Sep-2021.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.13086
Dollar Index 95.981
Japan Yen 113.8510
Swiss Franc 0.91635
Pound 1.34775
Aussie 0.713900
India Rupee 74.7264
South Korea Won 1198.260
Brazil Real 5.4881
Egypt Pound 15.710200
South Africa Rand 15.30348

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My Struggle: Book 3 Karl Ove Knausgard
Misc.

Zeitgeist comes from the outside, but works on the inside. It affects everyone, but not everyone is affected in the same way.

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So invest a piece of your McDonald’s paycheck in #Bitcoin Now go back to flip more burgers you lazy fvçk! @nayibbukele/
World Currencies

Most people go in when the price is up, but the safest and most profitable moment to buy is when the price is down. It’s not rocket science Man shrugging
So invest a piece of your McDonald’s paycheck in #Bitcoin
Now go back to flip more burgers you lazy fvçk!

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 24 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa

3 countries are still at the peak of their infection curve. Tunisia, Ageria & ReUnion

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The latest seeming coup in #Burkina fits into a worrying recent increase in putsches @kcsalmon
Africa


Turning to Africa
https://bit.ly/35ekJJr

Democracy has been shredded.
We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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I haven’t seen that promised demographic dividend yet, but it’s time-bomb version, yes. Politicians in Africa are sitting on craters they’re ignoring at their own peril. @hervegogo
Africa


10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator


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Foreign Minister Wang Yi Makes a 9th ‘first trip of the year’ to Africa @lajohnstondr
Africa


China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, who assumed his post in March 2013, has again made his first visit of 2022 to Africa, a Chinese tradition since 1991. 

His first trip of 2022 is his 17th to Africa in his current post, and this time the chosen country of arrival was Eritrea, followed by Kenya and Comoros. 

Here I reflect on his trip in the context of China-Africa political economy. This will shed light on the prospective rationale behind this itinerary, as well as what it may signal for the future.
First, the sub-regional focus of Wang’s visit was East Africa, following his visit to West Africa  last November for the Senegal-hosted Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). 

All but one of Africa’s 54 nations were represented at FOCAC, the exception being Swatini, which has diplomatic ties with Taiwan. 

His choice to emphasise East Africa so soon after those cross-continental bilateral meetings and a follow-on visit to Ethiopia, likely reflects the sub-region’s rising economic and security importance, for China especially. 

For example, China has its only overseas military base in Djibouti, neighbour to Eritrea and Ethiopia.  
Minister Wang’s first stop, in Eritrea, landlocked Ethiopia’s northern coastal neighbour, included meetings with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Foreign Minister Osman Saleh. 

These reiterated commitment to the FOCAC 2021 declaration, which has a focus on multilateralism and trade, sustainable development, and cooperation to overcome challenges presented by the pandemic. 

The construction of a new railway line from Addis Ababa in Ethiopia to Assab, a port in Eritrea, is also reported to have been discussed.
Professor of global studies at Kyoto’s Doshisha University, Seifudein Adam, described the railway proposal as “[arguably] the winning card in China’s new diplomatic strategy in the Horn.” 

Pre-text here is that in 2019 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in brokering a peace deal that ended the long-running border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 

A train line to Assab would diversify landlocked Ethiopia’s port access and help to develop Ethiopia’s ties with Eritrea without  passing through the northern Tigray region. 

Tigray is home to political parties whose contest of Prime Minister’s Ahmed’s government has turned violent.
From Eritrea, Wang Yi went to Ethiopia’s southern neighbour Kenya, a key node of China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative. 

There, Wang signed six memorandum of understandings (MoU) with Kenya’s foreign minister Raychelle Omamo, including new trade partnerships that will enable greater agricultural exports from Kenya to China, initially targeting avocadoes and seafood. 

The two sides also agreed to establish a working group that would tackle tariff and nontariff barriers impeding bilateral trade, again with an early focus on agricultural trade. 

Growth of agricultural ties is in focus as a means of reducing poverty in rural areas, and also for the purpose of diversifying China’s own sources of agricultural imports. 

Otherwise, the MoUs’ had a focus on humanitarian assistance, strengthening investment cooperation in the digital economy and innovation.  
In Kenya Wang Yi also made announcements of regional significance. Speaking in the historic regional trade port hub of Mombasa he announced China would appoint a special Horn of Africa envoy. 

Second, that China would continue to work on extending Chinese-constructed railways in Kenya to connect these to neighbouring landlocked countries, such as Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, and eventually also the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

Given the challenges of debt sustainability and the pandemic, no time frame, however, was offered. 

Facilitating intra-African infrastructure is intended as support for Africa’s own agenda to foster the intra-African trade and development, as well as extra-African trade.
On the final African stop Wang Yi met Comorian Foreign Minister Dhoihir Dhoulkamal in Moroni, capital of Indian Ocean-island nation Comoros. 

The two sides agreed to advance Comoros’ “Emerging Comoros Plan for 2030”, and to cooperate in areas of climate change (important for low-lying Comoros) and to control the covid pandemic. 

Comoros and China have previously collaborated to largely wipe out malaria on the island nation. From Comoros Wang Yi also visited two additional Indian Ocean nations, the Maldives and Sri Lanka.
In fact, all six countries visited on this first trip for 2022 were strategically important in an Indian Ocean context. 

Two Chinese policies may be relevant background. The first is to establish the southern-western province of Yunnan as gateway to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar. 

The aim is for still under-developed Yunnan province to develop via becoming a leader in both green and digital-enabled development and equivalently fosters economic connectivity with and among South East Asian and Indian Ocean countries, especially those party to the Belt and Road Initiative.
A second potentially related domestic agenda is the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for Guangdong Marine Economic Development”, issued by Guangdong authorities on December 15. 

This takes the ocean as a ‘strategic location’ for high-quality development, meaning broadly shifting the economy to a labour- and capital-quality driven growth model. The plan calls for advances in the local marine industrial system, maritime scientific and technical innovation capabilities, marine governance mechanisms and capabilities, and in Guangdong’s broader role in the global maritime economy.
In sum, Wang Yi’s first international visit of 2022 appears intent not only to foster African development and trade, but also to foster oceanic agendas such as facilitating peace in the Horn of Africa, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the blue economy. 

In this context, Eritrea, and Kenya are important to both ocean and Africa-related development plans, as well as to peace in the Horn of Africa. 

This may explanation why they were first on Wang Yi’s 2022 travel itinerary.

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.@FitchRatings Upgrades Angola to 'B-'; Outlook Stable
Africa


Angola's heavy dependence on oil, accounting for on average 34% of GDP, 56% of fiscal revenue and grants and 96% external receipts during the five years to 2020, has led to substantial improvements on key credit metrics.
Based on data up to November, Fitch estimates Angola's central government (CG) debt to GDP ratio fell to 78.5% in 2021, a marked improvement from our forecast of 126.9% at the September 2020 review and well below 123.8% of GDP in 2020. 

We forecast CG debt to decline further to 74.8% of GDP in 2022 and 73% in 2023. 

The lower debt ratios are the result of substantially higher nominal GDP (up 32.4% in 2021, partly reflecting oil prices), a stabilisation of the kwanza (with the earlier depreciation an important driver for rising debt in previous years, given foreign-currency denominated debt makes up 70% of total debt) and continued commitment to fiscal consolidation.

After five consecutive years of economic contraction, we forecast GDP growth of 0.1% in 2021, accelerating to 2.1% and 3.1% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, mainly driven by the non-oil sector. 

We expect oil production to fall to 1.13 million barrels per day in 2021 and 2022 from 1.27 million barrels per day in 2020.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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