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Monday 28th of February 2022
 
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Regime Change
World Of Finance


A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY [in the markets]

There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 
There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones

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Mirrors on the ceiling, The Pink champagne on ice
Misc.

Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door

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Zoltan out today. Two quotes: @biancoresearch
World Of Finance

1 Exclusions from SWIFT will lead to missed payments and giant overdrafts similar to the missed payments and giant overdrafts that we saw in March 2020.

2 Central banks should stand ready to make markets on Monday again…

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Fiction in a Post-Truth Age Pankaj Mishra @LRB
Misc.

Two decades ago, the destruction of the World Trade Center plunged many novelists in the West into feelings of powerlessness and marginality. Fanatics of seemingly obscure background and motivation had set off colossal explosions in what Don DeLillo in Falling Man called the ‘narcissistic heart of the West’. Martin Amis was not alone in ‘considering a change of occupation’. Ian McEwan claimed to have found it ‘wearisome to confront invented characters’. ‘I wanted to be told,’ he said, ‘about the world. I wanted to be informed. I felt that we had gone through great changes and now was the time to just go back to school, as it were, and start to learn.’

This learning process could have begun with fiction from outside the West. Unlike the novelists blindsided on 9/11, and since, by the ferocity of political antagonism, writers from Asia, Africa and Latin America had always written from within, and often about, the experience of violence and disorder; they couldn’t remain oblivious to conflicts over food, water, land and identity.

After 9/11, however, amid Western preparations for retribution in Afghanistan, and then Iraq, facts rather than fiction – the facts of history, politics, sociology and, especially, religion – suddenly seemed crucial to re-education in the self-involved West. In the abrupt efflorescence of Western curiosity about far-off lands and peoples, I was one of those tasked with answering the puerile question ‘why do they hate us?’

Early in 2001, a few months after publishing my first novel, The Romantics, I had travelled to Afghanistan. I wrote at length, in Granta and the New York Review of Books, about the way the country had been ravaged by the Soviet Union, the ‘free world’ and Saudi-sponsored Islamic fundamentalists. I tried to describe this recent history from the point of view of the Afghans. Soon after 9/11, however, I found myself routinely invited by the American and European media to share my expertise on ‘terrorism’.

There were, back then, very few writers of non-Western origin in the Anglo-American press, and I often accepted the absurd role of a terrorism expert out of an uneasy sense of responsibility. Writers not previously known for their acquaintance with the Quran had suddenly become loquacious with interpretations of jihad and analyses of the Shariah, and anti-Islam agitators luridly colouring in a Muslim propensity for irrationalism were anointed as brave truth-tellers. More ominously, as bombs exploded across Afghanistan and the calls grew for war in Iraq, many British and American commentators relished their newfound bloodthirstiness, typified by Christopher Hitchens urging Nato to bomb Afghanistan out of the Stone Age.

I saw myself as one of the few mainstream writers resisting, however futilely, the further brutalising of a luckless country, and the demonising of Muslims. Everything I had absorbed, growing up in India, about the history of decolonisation told me that the Western venture in Afghanistan, fulsomely endorsed across Europe and America, was doomed to calamitous failure. But I could not share this belief with my editors, overwhelmingly white and male, in the West: poorly educated in the facts of imperialism and decolonisation, they seemed unaware that assumptions of perpetual Western hegemony had long been exposed to intense contestation from what W.E.B. Du Bois called the ‘darker nations’. I could only look on incredulous as the BBC screened a documentary about the globally beneficial effects of the British Empire, or the New York Times Magazine argued that the United States should establish a new empire of democracy and free markets.

My sense of wrongness had another source, too. I didn’t have faith in the ability of long-form reporting or op-ed commentary to convey complexity and nuance, as I had long been susceptible to D.H. Lawrence’s boast that the novelist is ‘superior to the saint, the scientist, the philosopher, and the poet, who are all great masters of different bits of man alive, but never get the whole hog.’

Much of what I knew of history, sociology and political psychology had originally been gleaned from novels. The splintering of society into a mêlée of self-seeking individuals; economic exploitation and material inequality; the corruptions of politics and the press; the inadequacies of liberal gradualism; the thwarting of revolutionary hopes; the impotent resentments of the low-born and socially insecure: all of these enduring pathologies, the staple of academic and journalistic work, were first anatomised in the novels of Stendhal, Balzac, Flaubert, Maupassant, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, Turgenev.

I was led back to writing fiction myself in part by a disillusioning experience, as I saw how the dominant ideology, shared across the realms of politics, business and the media, was increasingly antagonistic to lived reality. The post-truth age has dawned murkily in a chasm: between the way an elite represents the world in which it is flourishing, and the way ordinary people experience that same world.

I was first confronted with this after reporting in 1999 from the Valley of Kashmir, then as now under a brutal military occupation by India. My carefully documented accounts of the massacre, rape and torture of Kashmiri Muslims flailed before an obdurate Indian consensus: that Kashmiris were being saved from themselves, with regrettable but never excessive force, by a democratic and secular nation-state, the morally prestigious legatee of Gandhi and Nehru.

In the West an even grander and slicker self-image thwarted examination of the ruling class’s humanitarian wars and ideological crusades. In the late 1990s, when I started publishing in Europe and America, writers and journalists commonly presented their countries as spiritual heirs of Athenian democracy, Renaissance individualism and Enlightenment rationality. (Their boosterism always reminded me of Herzog’s remark in Saul Bellow’s novel that ‘the visions of genius become the canned goods of intellectuals.’). A younger generation today, traumatised by blustering blonds in the White House and Downing Street, won’t remember the time when politicians, businessmen, think-tankers and journalists in London, New York and Washington DC defined, with supreme confidence, what the world was and should be. And, indeed, as Anglo-American experts shock-therapied Russia into capitalism, democratic India, communist China and many other countries seemed to be converging on a perfected Western model, which combined democracy with free markets and was capable of bringing individual rights and prosperity to all.

The role of slavery and racial capitalism in the making of the Western model – made inescapable in recent years by new scholarship and the Black Lives Matter movement – was elided from the stories insisting that the West was, and is, best. I tried to highlight neglected or ignored realities: the pogroms of Hindu supremacists, the long history of terrorist violence in Europe and America, the role of the state in the economic modernisation of East Asia. At the same time, I secretly longed to return to writing fiction, haunted by Nadine Gordimer’s remark that ‘nothing factual that I write or say will be as truthful as my fiction.’

Gordimer, who spent much of her life under an apartheid regime armed by the free world, never needed an education in the facts of history and geopolitics. She diagnosed a crippling – and truly global – psychological legacy of slavery and imperialism: racial and civilisational conceits on one side, and devastated self-respect on another. Insightful in her essays about a ‘dying white order’, she urged her compatriots, whose ‘ego’ had been massaged for too long by Western journalism, to contribute to a non-racial ‘order struggling to be born’.

Her complex art, however, could never be reduced to her opinions and aspirations. She neither punished nor honoured her characters for what they said or did. And her novels didn’t aim to provide sociological or historical data through a quasi-photographic reflection of empirical reality. They offered a kind of knowledge that only novels can: the states of consciousness of different people at different times.

They showed that, while literature cannot but engage with the facts of politics and history, it works in a separate realm, imaginatively unveiling what we didn’t know we knew: the bewildering diversity of our impressions, the tangled nature of our motives, the many inconsistencies of our thought and behaviour. Instead of offering a programme or conviction, facts or counter-facts, fiction shows the human truth – muddle and conflict – in every situation; and it enlarges our suspicion of the unfathomable strangeness and variety of life.

I continued to read novels with the compulsion I picked up as a child: to experience the world in the mysterious and exhilarating ways fiction makes possible, the repeatable miracle of printed words giving shape to emotions, and clarifying the look, smell and texture of things. Opening a new novel held the promise of exploring some shared Atlantis of the imagination – the place from which one writer after another would return with a private haul of images, memories and thoughts that, unknown one moment, seemed intensely intimate the next.

And I came to see more clearly the inadequacy of my own work. I had started my writing career in a later phase of what Gordimer, following Gramsci, called an ‘interregnum’ – a period of revolutionary upheaval inaugurated by decolonisation. This world-historical event – marked by the contortions of a dying white order and the eager assumption of power and wealth, along with all their corruptions, by the darker nations – became my subject in books and essays over the past two decades.

But the questions left unanswered in my mostly sceptical accounts of the ‘rise’ of Asia kept growing: what, for instance, does the possession of power do to people deprived of it for centuries? The claims of people damaged by colonial violence, racial prejudice and material deprivation have never been more widely amplified. But how do the inner lives of the victims of history change when they gain professional and sexual freedoms that had been unimaginable? What does such change – unprecedented in its velocity and scale – mean to individuals in their most intimate lives, as sons and daughters, husbands and wives, lovers and friends? How does it alter their sense of self, and their relationship to their past?

The proofs of material success in countries such as India and China – high GDP growth, manifestly hectic consumerism – may seem indisputable. The characters in my new novel belong to an Indian generation that grew up just in time to benefit from an economic globalisation supervised by English-speakers. Often born in very modest circumstances, members of this generation now occupy, in middle age, senior positions in big tech companies, hedge funds and banks in Europe and America.

Underneath such ‘success stories’, however, lies another reality, in which personal liberation and fulfilment are unfinished and increasingly corrupted projects, and the dominant yet not fully acknowledged emotion is a sense of loss. It seemed to me that no genre of non-fiction could capture the momentum and complexity of such a dramatic transformation, the uprootedness and disorientation, or the feelings of confusion and self-betrayal, the profound moral trouble, incited by it.

I increasingly felt that only imaginative writing was equal to capturing the maddening ambiguity of such circumstances; that only the novel, a particularly supple and spacious literary form, could unite the frustratingly disparate modes, abstract and intuitive, sensuous and intellectual, of apprehending the world. The novel’s perpetual struggle for a fuller, more integrated consciousness has always been indispensable. Its invitation to a slow, silent and creative communication between writer and reader has become irresistible amid the organised mendacity and the clash of hot takes that make an extremely online public sphere so cacophonous today.

Many of the sources people used to trust to relieve their everyday perplexity before the world have been foundering. Cheerleading catastrophically ill-conceived wars, oblivious to a long-gathering financial crisis and helpless before its toxic political consequences, the so-called legacy media have undermined their superior claim on facts and become complicit in a larger breakdown of trust in democratic institutions.

If the public sphere is awash with false and misleading information, it is because the ruling class ideology that in the 1990s enjoyed a high degree of public acquiescence and the power to shape facts has been exposed as the illusion of an entitled minority. Russia has mutated into a routine menace, India has turned its back on democracy, China openly mocks it, and the Western model of globalisation seems unlikely to recover from the devastation inflicted on it by the blonds in the White House and Downing Street.

The gap between the experiences of ordinary citizens and the perspectives of politicians and journalists widened throughout the long years of crisis. One damaging consequence is that many more people today are willing to suspend their disbelief in the malign fictions of far-right demagogues, podcasters and YouTubers. Corrective modes of knowledge that rely on new enquiry rather than log-rolling and confirmation bias have yet to become authoritative.

There is more demographic diversity in publishing and media offices, as well as university departments, than when I started out as a writer. Yet diversity of thought remains a distant goal, and those who feel endangered by the very idea of it have moved fast to seize cultural capital from diminished legacy institutions, and to substack canned goods – the Enlightenment, classical liberalism, Western rationalism – on their stalls in an algorithm-fuelled marketplace of ideas.

The primary struggle of these intellectual entrepreneurs is for survival. Demographic changes at home, decline in economic and military power abroad, along with new ways of thinking, teaching and self-fashioning, have rendered obsolete many concepts, categories and identities derived from an insufficiently examined past. ‘What we possess,’ Alasdair MacIntyre warned in After Virtue (1981), ‘are the fragments of a conceptual scheme, parts which now lack those contexts from which their significance derived.’ No amount of refurbished Plato-to-Nato narratives about Western Civilisation can restore the confidence once held by a long hegemonic order.

Nor will a besieged establishment’s loud existential fears of ‘wokeness’ drown out this simple imperative: that to live attentively in our times, when voices long suppressed are beginning to be heard, is necessarily to awaken to centuries of brutal history. There is no question of the urgent need for more scholarship about insidiously steadfast modes of injustice and humiliation, and for fresh ideas about how to rethink our past, and to chart our way out of the present into a liveable future.

But they won’t be enough in themselves, especially if they are reduced to a means of self-branding, hardened into postures, and emptied of their ability to disturb entrenched opinion. No matter how potent and compelling our facts and ideas, we will still want to explore our moral and emotional lives: the intimate realm where the individual stands shorn of vain ideology, full of contradiction and irresolution. We can be most precisely known, and vividly revealed, even through blindingly fast historical change, by imaginative literature. Fiction will continue to speak its truths in the post-truth age.

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Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin. @maxseddon
Law & Politics



He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per  @tass_agency

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Afghanistan 2.0 — Biden moves swiftly to ensnare invading Russian forces in a military quagmire by sending up to $350 million in lethal weapons to the Ukrainian resistance. @Chellaney
Law & Politics


And WSJ reports he is asking Congress for a staggering $6.4 billion in additional military aid for Ukraine.



Conclusions 

this is apparently the essence of it. 


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Europe faces what may be the most dangerous and consequential war on the continent since the Second World War? @NewYorker
Law & Politics


As Biden spoke, Ukraine was fighting—alone—against overwhelming military odds. There was a pitched battle in the nuclear hellscape that the Soviet Union left behind in Chernobyl. In Kyiv, air-raid sirens sounded for what must have been the first time since the Second World War, and a military official warned that the Russians’ goal was to quickly encircle the capital and decapitate the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

 “Make no mistake,” Biden said, “freedom will prevail.”

But will it? Our inability to answer the question with an unambiguous “yes” is one measure of the calamity that has already occurred.

Biden ruled out American military intervention in Ukraine from the start, and, in any event, Putin very explicitly threatened extreme—potentially nuclear—retaliation should the U.S. change course.


Putin’s “plan all along has been to invade Ukraine; to control Ukraine and its people; to destroy Ukraine’s democracy, which offers a stark contrast to the autocracy he leads; to reclaim Ukraine as a part of Russia,” Blinken said. A little more than twenty-four hours later, just before 10 p.m. Washington time, the attack had begun—a tragedy foretold and no less tragic for unfolding as expected.

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3/20 Russians appear to have exercised a degree of restraint in the use of maximum force. But given the initial lightening, light-weight invasion approach has not gone as well as may have been planned, this may change. @WarintheFuture
Law & Politics

3/20 As others have already noted, the Russians appear to have exercised a degree of restraint in the use of maximum force. But given the initial lightening, light-weight invasion approach has not gone as well as may have been planned, this may change.

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15/20 Finally, Russia’s new theories of war for the 21st century are being tested. it is clear that recent developments in their military theory are being severely tested by the realities of war. @WarintheFuture
Law & Politics

15/20 Finally, Russia’s new theories of war for the 21st century are being tested. While I examine this in detail in #WarTransformed, it is clear that recent developments in their military theory are being severely tested by the realities of war.

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Earlier in this thread, I reported on claims from Western-intel that Ukraine had shot down multiple IL-76 transports. @ClintEhrlich
Law & Politics


I no longer believe that to be true, given the absence of any photos – which would have *massive* propaganda value for Ukraine.

Conclusions

The Fog of War 

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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics


Propaganda has been a staple of warfare for ages

As he put it, "Men respond as powerfully to fictions as they do to realities [and] in many cases they help to create the very fictions to which they respond."

And it all left me wondering Who exactly is controlling the Console?

"It was the first non-linear war," writes Surkov in a new short story, "Without Sky," published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the "fifth world war":

The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilised perception, in order to manage and control

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24-JAN-2022 :: The Charge of the Light Brigade
Law & Politics



.@MittRomney described #Russia as a gas station parading as a country.

“Forward, the Light Brigade!” 

Was there a man dismayed? 

Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered. 

Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, 

Theirs but to do and die. Into the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.

Putin sees this optimal window of opportunity to test the readiness of US for bilateral talks with Moscow but also the red line for future concessions if Washington really intends to get Russia out of China’s orbit in the long term. 

Moscow has put its conditions on the table. tweeted @vtchakarova.
and added ''Amid bifurcation of the global system, think of Machiavelli: 

„There’s nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.“ Because this is what Russia’s doing now''

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14-FEB-2022 :: The End of the World is a Concept Without a Future
Law & Politics



September 1, 1939 by W. H. Auden comes to mind
http://bit.ly/2QuSRbo


Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth, Obsessing our private lives;
The unmentionable odour of death
Into this neutral air
Where blind skyscrapers use Their full height to proclaim The strength of Collective Man, Each language pours its vain Competitive excuse:
But who can live for long
In an euphoric dream;
Out of the mirror they stare,
Faces along the bar
Cling to their average day: 

The lights must never go out, The music must always play,


Just as Auden was describing a World teetering on the edge of World War 11, the narrative coming from the likes of Secretary Blinken and his President appear to be signalling a similar moment. 

Ultimately, this is about Hard Power, its about a President Putin who has waited close to three decades for precisely this moment to try expunge the humiliation of the 1990s. 

Putin is seeking to stop NATO dead in its tracks, create a sphere of influence and is seizing this moment in the context of a now extinct ''Unipolar'' World and a freshly minted Tripolar World. 

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.115910 
Dollar Index 97.264
Japan Yen 115.5425
Swiss Franc 0.9262
Pound 1.3370
Aussie 0.7186
India Rupee 75.4895
South Korea Won 1203.955
Brazil Real 5.1672
Egypt Pound 15.7115
South Africa Rand 15.3666

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Senior executives of Gasprom found dead. Russian banks cut from Swift. Financial institutions freezing Russian assets. You think the West doesn’t have a few tricks up their sleeve? @SantiagoAuFund
World Of Finance

Senior executives of Gasprom found dead.  Russian banks cut from Swift. Financial institutions freezing Russian assets.  You think the West doesn’t have a few tricks up their sleeve?  You think they will just roll over? You think they will play fair?

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US army war college quarterly 1997. The US officer charged with defining the future of warfare, wrote One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict between information masters and information victims.
World Of Finance

This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be “spawned” - like any Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions. “Hatred, jealousy, and greed - emo- tions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information warfare] struggles”.

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Ukraine is the world’s fifth biggest exporter of wheat, and exports across Africa. @thecontinent_
Africa

These exports will suffer as Ukraine’s agriculture and export system suffers through an invasion. With sanctions against Russia, it’ll be increasingly difficult to trade with that country. Egypt, for example, gets half of its wheat imports from Russia.
North Africa is facing its worst drought in 30 years.

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Africa’s elephant population continues to dwindle: a century ago it sat at 5-million, decreasing to 1.3-million in 1979, and now it hovers around 415,000. @thecontinent_
Africa


Around 500 metric tonnes of elephant tusks are shipped from the continent each year despite there being no practical use for them.

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East African Portland Cement Company reports Six Months Ended 31st December 2021
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           6.88
Total Shares Issued:          90000000.00
Market Capitalization:        619,200,000
EPS:             20.97
PE:                 0.328

EAPCC reports HY Earnings through 31st December 2021

HY Revenue 0.967601b versus 1.389511b

HY Cost of Sales [1.347149b] versus [1.723828b]

HY Gross Loss [379.548m] versus [334.317m]

HY Other Operating Income 97.114m versus 38.202m

HY Admin & Operating expenses [532.443m] versus [540.541m]

HY Loss from Operating Activities [814.877m] versus [836.656m]

HY Finance Costs [101.281m] versus [269.457m]

HY Loss before Tax [916.158m] versus [1.105987b]

HY Loss after Tax [907.109m] versus [1.035339m]

HY EPS [10.08] versus [11.36]

Commentary 

Balance sheet restructuring program with proceeds from sale of land expected to bridge working capital deficit 

It is expected business will be profitable by end of current financial year 

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Unga Group Ltd. reports Six Months Ended 31st December 2021
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


n/a
Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           27.30
Total Shares Issued:          75708872.00
Market Capitalization:        2,066,852,206
EPS:             2.39
PE:                 11.423

6 month results through 31st December 2021 versus 6 months through 31st December 2020

HY Revenue 8.822553b versus 9.742012b

HY Operating Profit 79.335m versus 217,896m

HY Finance Income 32.628m versus 8.152m

HY Finance Costs [128.706m] versus [103.504m] 

HY Profit before Tax [16.743m] versus 122.544m

HY Tax Expense 25.195m versus [39.068m]

HY Profit after Tax 8.452m versus 35.572m

HY EPS 0.003 versus 0.63

Commentary

Revenue declined 9% over same period prior year due to reduced sales volumes in both human and animal nutrition segments. 

Profit before tax was impacted by revenue decline and depressed margins due to a surge in cost of key raw materials attributable to global shortages, rise in freight cost and a weakened Kenya shilling.
Wheat grain price increase and shortage were because of adverse weather, pandemic related interruptions and increased global demand.
Maize supply and prices were stable in the first quarter. However, a poorer than expected harvest in the second quarter created shortages and an increase in prices.
A global shortage of soya bean pushed prices to unprecedented levels. 

The reduction in local demand for flour has meant that by-products used in animal feeding have been in relatively short supply. 

We turned to imports from the region to bridge this gap.
Though the government has allowed duty-free importation of non-GMO raw materials, high global prices have not made importation a viable option yet.
Initiatives to improve our market reach and drive operational efficiencies continued to gather momentum. 

Cash flow constraints experienced in the trade meant tightening our credit risk policy to avert bad debts.
Opportunities in new product lines and partnerships continued to be explored. 

The necessary investments were and continue to be made to bring these on-going initiatives to fruition.
Outlook
Raw material prices are expected to remain high for the rest of the financial year. This may worsen the already soaring human food and animal feeds price situation.
Delayed VAT refunds continue to strain cash flows, made worse by an increase in working capital requirement to cover higher material prices.
We continue to lobby for sustainable raw material solutions through policy changes such as approval of GMO raw materials especially for animal feeds.
The Board and management are working on strategies to counter the existing challenges. 

The Directors do not recommend payment of an interim dividend.

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Longhorn Kenya Ltd reports Six Months Ended 31st December 2021
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

 


Closing Price:           3.85
Total Shares Issued:          369940476.00
Market Capitalization:        1,424,270,833
EPS:             0.02
PE:                 192.500

6 month results through 31st December 2021 versus through 31st December 2020

HY Revenue 960.969m versus 288.515m

HY Cost of Sales [628.247m] versus [197.295m]

HY Gross Profit 332.722m versus 91.220m

HY Operating Expenses [236.150m] versus [143.394m]

HY Finance Costs [64.619m] versus [93.158m]

HY Profit before Tax 31.953m versus [145.332m]

HY Profit after Tax 15.091m versus [145.332m] 

Commentary 

Across our various markets, we have seen a gradual improvement in the trading environment which supported the overall positive half-year performance of the Group.

Revenue for the six-month period recovered robustly with an increase of Kshs 672 million, representing a 233% growth, compared to the previous period. 

This was primarily driven by the expansion into new geographical markets. 

The focus is to ensure that the business fully exploits the huge potential in EdTech across the continent. Longhorn is uniquely positioned to maximize on this potential.


Our successful market entry into Cameroon followed by DRC and Ghana adds significant coverage to our existing markets. 




 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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