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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 02nd of June 2022
 
Morning
Africa

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Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity
World Of Finance


The World was once a more simple place [or so our received memory will lead us to believe]
Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,
vanity of vanities! All is vanity.
A generation goes, and a generation comes,
but the earth remains forever.
The sun rises, and the sun goes down,
and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.
What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there a thing of which it is said,
“See, this is new”?
It has been already
In the ages before us.
There is no remembrance of former things,[c]
nor will there be any remembrance
of later things[d] yet to be
among those who come after.
Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 11 [1]

There can be no doubt that Speed illuminates the present and Events move in a non linear fashion and can cascade. 

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SCOTT RITTER: Phase Three in Ukraine @Consortiumnews
Law & Politics


Russia’s “Special Military Operation”, which began on Feb. 24, is entering its fourth month. 

Despite stiffer than expected Ukrainian resistance (bolstered by billions of dollars of western military assistance and accurate, real-time battlefield intelligence by the U.S. and other NATO members) Russia is winning the war on the ground, and in a big way.
After more than ninety days of incessant Ukrainian propaganda, echoed mindlessly by a complicit western mainstream media that extolls the battlefield successes of the Ukrainian armed forces and the alleged incompetence of the Russian military

the Russians are on the cusp of achieving the stated goal of its operation, namely the liberation of the newly independent Donbass Republics of Lugansk and Donetsk, which Russia recognized two days before its invasion.=

The Russian advantage in artillery was a key factor in the victorious outcome of its Phase Two operations, pulverizing the Ukrainian defenses and opening the way for the infantry and armor to finish off the survivors.
According to the daily briefings provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainians are losing the equivalent of a battalion’s worth of manpower every two days, not to mention scores of tanks, armored fighting vehicles, artillery pieces, and trucks.
Indeed, several observers of this conflict, myself included, projected that based upon predictive analysis drawn from the basic military math regarding actual and projected casualty levels, there was a real expectation that Russia, upon completion of Phase Two, would have been able to claim, with justification, that it had accomplished most, if not all the political and military objectives set out at the start of the operation.
Logic dictated that the Ukrainian government, stripped of a viable military, would have no choice but a modern-day version of the surrender of France in June 1940, following decisive battlefield victories by the German army.
While Russia continues to position itself for a decisive military victory in eastern Ukraine, it may likely confine itself to the liberation of the Donbass, seizures of the land bridge connecting Crimea with the Russian Federation mainland (via Donbass), and the expansion of the Kherson bridgehead to secure fresh water resources to Crimea which had been cut off by the Ukrainian government since 2014.
In his classic treatise, On War, Prussian military theorist Carl Von Clausewitz penned what has become one of the ultimate truisms of conflicts involving nations, namely that “war is a continuation of politics by other means.” This holds as true today as when it was published in 1832.

If anything, the “Nazification” of Ukrainian political life has expanded exponentially since Russia’s invasion, with Ukraine more under the influence of the ideology of Stepan Bandera, the Ukrainian nationalist whose followers killed hundreds of thousands of Jews, Gypsies, Poles, and Russians while fighting alongside Nazi Germany in World War Two.

If Russia were to call a halt to its military operation at this juncture, it would be ceding political victory to Ukraine, which “wins” by not losing.

Phase Three
But the combination of an expired legal mandate, unfulfilled political objectives, and the possibility of a massive expansion of the scope and the scale of combat operations, which could possibly include one or more NATO members, points to an absolute need for Russia to articulate the mission of Phase Three and why it needs one.

Failure to do so opens the door to the possibility that Russia puts itself in a position where it is unable to successfully conclude a conflict that it opted to initiate at the end of February.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.067595
Dollar Index 102.15
Japan Yen 129.9505
Swiss Franc 0.959475 
Pound 1.252545
Aussie 0.71787 
India Rupee 77.56050
South Korea Won 1252.180 
Brazil Real 4.8170 
Egypt Pound 18.611400 
South Africa Rand 15.53465 

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Grains Slide With Easing Supply Worries and Sluggish US Demand @markets
Commodities


Benchmark wheat fell as much as 5.5% and corn touched the lowest price in more than two months amid optimism Ukraine may soon be able to resume exports from the Black Sea. 

Forecasts for better US farming weather and sluggish world demand for America’s grains are also weighing on futures. 
Chicago wheat futures for July settled Wednesday down 4.3% at $10.4125 a bushel, the lowest since April 7. July corn closed 3% lower at $7.3125 a bushel, the lowest since March 29.

Conclusions

I would argue these are at compelling levels 

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Sri Lanka seeking $3 bln under IMF Extended Fund Facility - sources
Emerging Markets

Sri Lanka is in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to borrow at least $3 billion via the lender's extended fund facility (EFF), sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

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Test case Zambia exposes China's rookie status on debt relief - sources @Reuters
Africa


Zambia became in 2020 the first country to default in the COVID-19 pandemic era, struggling under a debt burden worth 120% of GDP. Its external debt topped $17 billion at the end of 2021, of which a third was owed to China, according to Zambian government data.

China agreed last month to co-chair Zambia's official creditor committee with France, a move welcomed by Zambia's government

China became over the last decade the dominant public lender to African countries, extending $160 billion in credit since 2000, according to Boston University researchers.

Zambia reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on a $1.4 billion extended credit facility in December, but the money cannot flow until Lusaka and its creditors agree on reducing the debt to sustainable levels.

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Analysis: Shortage of oil refineries haunts Africa as fuel prices rocket @Reuters
Africa


Refineries across sub-Saharan Africa combined can process 1.36 million barrels of oil a day (bpd), in theory, but with many out of action, only 30% of that capacity was used last year, according to independent consultancy CITAC.
Refineries in Cameroon, Ghana and Senegal are shut, as are four in South Africa. A

frica's biggest oil producer, Nigeria, pumps over 1.3 million barrels a day, but the two privately owned plants still running there can only process 1% of that.
The upshot is that despite the continent's estimated 125 billion barrels of oil reserves and 600 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, African countries rely almost exclusively on imported petroleum products to power their economies.
Even major crude oil exporters, Nigeria and Angola, depend on imports for almost 80% of their domestic fuel needs, government officials say.
Retail diesel prices were up more than 90% year-on-year in April, according to Ghana's statistics service.
"These conditions mean you effectively need double whatever credit you would have needed last year," said Senyo Hosi, head of the Ghana Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors.
With prices for immediate delivery so high compared with future months - a market phenomenon known as backwardation - there is little incentive to store products for future sale.
"High outright prices and steep backwardation reduce the incentives to hold discretionary or unsold inventory, leaving spot or short-notice buyers vulnerable to shortages," said Jamie Torrance, head of distillates and biofuels at commodities trading firm Trafigura.

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The value of stocks listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange @NSE_PLC has dropped by Sh586 billion since the start of the year @BD_Africa
N.S.E General


Safaricom, the most widely held stock, has one of the largest declines of 36.4 percent over the past 12 months to trade at Sh26 on Tuesday.
East African Breweries Plc has shed 23.8 percent over the same period to close at Sh141. 

Co-op Bank’s share price declined 11.6 percent to Sh11.3 while that of KCB fell 8.6 percent to Sh38.1.
Cigarette manufacturer BAT Kenya saw its share price drop 8.8 percent to Sh420.
A few blue-chip stocks have gained over the review period including Equity which is up 6.4 percent to Sh45.5.

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@SafaricomPLC share data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Price: 26.25
Market Capitalization: 1,051,717,485,000
EPS: 1.74
PE: 15.086

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@EABL_PLC East African Breweries Ltd
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Price:  141.50

Market Capitalization: 111,894,571,374
EPS: 5.51
PE: 25.681

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Equity Group Holdings Ltd
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Price: 45.20

Market Capitalization: 170,570,101,050
EPS: 10.38
PE:  4.355

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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