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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 23rd of June 2022
 
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What’s behind the sharp drop in Bitcoin’s value? $BTC @AJInsideStory
World Currencies

What’s behind the sharp drop in Bitcoin’s value? $BTC @AJInsideStory 
Presenter: Sami Zeidan
Guests
Aly-Khan Satchu – Investor and CEO at Rich Management
Naeem Aslam – Chief market analyst at AvaTrade
Brian Lucey – Professor of international finance and commodities at Trinity Business School

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The optics of his foreign trips are carefully curated. His millions of followers refer to him as "Vishwa-Guru," the Guru of the Whole World. Arundhati Roy CNN
Law & Politics


The optics of his foreign trips are carefully curated. His millions of followers refer to him as "Vishwa-Guru," the Guru of the Whole World. Arundhati Roy CNN


Roy: The systematic indoctrination of people on the scale on which it has taken place over decades is hard to reverse. 

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Taiwan scrambles jets to warn away Chinese planes in its air defence zone @Reuters
Law & Politics


Taiwan scrambles jets to warn away Chinese planes in its air defence zone @Reuters 


Taiwan scrambled jets on Tuesday to warn away 29 Chinese aircraft in its air defence zone, including bombers that flew south of the island and into the Pacific, in the latest uptick in tensions and largest incursion since late May.

It was the largest incursion since Taiwan reported 30 Chinese aircraft in its ADIZ on May 30. The largest to date this year occurred on Jan. 23, involving 39 aircraft. 

Taiwan calls China's repeated nearby military activities "grey zone" warfare, designed to both wear out Taiwanese forces by making them repeatedly scramble, and also to test Taiwanese responses.
The latest Chinese mission included 17 fighters and six H-6 bombers, as well as electronic warfare, early warning, antisubmarine and aerial refuelling aircraft, Taiwan's defence ministry said.

However, the bombers, accompanied by an electronic warfare and an intelligence gathering aircraft, flew into the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines and into the Pacific, before turning back to China on the same route.

No shots have been fired and the Chinese aircraft have not been flying in Taiwan's air space, but in its ADIZ, a broader area Taiwan monitors and patrols that acts to give it more time to respond to any threats.

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1-4-2-1
Law & Politics


1-4-2-1



1-4-2-1. The first 1 refers to defending what has since come to be called the homeland. 

The 4 refers to deterring hostilities in four key regions of the world. 

The 2 means the U.S. armed forces must have the strength to win swiftly in two near-simultaneous conflicts in those regions. 

The final 1 means that we must win one of those conflicts “decisively,” toppling the enemy’s regime.

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29 Chinese aircraft - including 17 fighter jets and six bombers - crossed into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) @AnonymoX404X
Law & Politics


29 Chinese aircraft - including 17 fighter jets and six bombers - crossed into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) @AnonymoX404X



1x Y-9 EW
1x Y-8 ELINT
6x H-6
1x Y-20
2x KJ-500 AEW&C
1x Y-8 ASW
8x J-16
4x Su-30
5x J-11

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Anarchy is a likelier future for the west than tyranny @FT Janan Ganesh
Law & Politics


Anarchy is a likelier future for the west than tyranny @FT  Janan Ganesh 



“Little Brother is watching you,” said no novel or movie ever. Almost every fictional dystopia — 1984, The Handmaid’s Tale, Michel Houellebecq’s Submission — involves a vast and oppressive state, not a failed or ineffectual one.

 Because the most recent threats to civilisation were Hitler and Stalin, we expect the next one to take the same dictatorial form.
We shouldn’t. The story of our species is mostly the story of disorder, not too much order; of anarchy rather than tyranny. Even now, the state, a recent invention, is patchy and provisional in much of the world.
Western liberals should adjust their nightmares accordingly. Worrying about strongmen will continue to make sense as long as Donald Trump ponders a comeback. But the larger trend of events is towards fragmentation and chaos.
The pioneer is, as ever, the US. In a nation that is not just split but checkmated, neither Democrats nor Republicans can build a lasting electoral hegemony of the kind that allowed the New Deal, the Reagan revolution and other necessary reforms in the last century. 

Inflaming this governance problem is the large minority of the population that does not recognise, say, the legitimacy of President Joe Biden or the wisdom of public health advice. 

For a sense of how unreachable some voters are, consider that a third or more of Americans are open to the secession of their state from the union. 

Even if this is so much armchair bluff, states with as much clout as Florida and Texas increasingly define themselves against the federal government.
There is cheering and distressing news here. Even if a tyrant could seize power in a coup, no country so fractious and ornery would remain under his or her thumb for long. The far more plausible future is an ungovernable America.
If the theme here is entropy, Europe shouldn’t feel left out

In France, the political parties that gave some shape to the Fifth Republic have shrunk at dazzling speed and parliament now brims with radicals. 

A presidency that Charles de Gaulle designed to be quasi-monarchical in its power has in recent decades known two ineffectual one-termers (Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande), a man who gave up on economic reform early on (Jacques Chirac) and the very partial success of Emmanuel Macron. 

Which is likelier: that all these leaders were fools, or that the nation itself is ever harder to lead?
In France, at least, turmoil is a part of folk memory. 

The British are less prepared for the decay of political order. They have had as many prime ministers since July 13 2016 as between May 2 1979 and June 27 2007. 

There is a separatist tug from Scotland, a deteriorating crisis in Northern Ireland and what appears to be the beginning of the end of a generation of excruciatingly hard-won industrial peace. Unwritten ethical conventions have turned into dust under a laughing cavalier of a prime minister. 

That is a measure of his potential as a demagogue, yes, but also of how little structure there now is in public life.

 As his 80-seat parliamentary majority proves impotent against unions and Nimbys, it is the flight of power from the centre that stands out, not its ruthless concentration there.
It is customary at this point to say that chaos is exactly what creates the public clamour for a Caesar or Napoleon: for a suspension of democratic niceties. 

But there is nothing to say that one follows the other. Italy has had messy, reform-blocking politics for much of this century without crossing into rule by personal decree. 

The US has had four presidential assassinations and a civil war in its history, but no dictator. A relapse into that nihilism is more plausible — isn’t it? — than a model of government that has no pedigree in the two and a half centuries of the republic. 

Perhaps it is because there is no face or voice to put to it that entropy goes under-discussed, under-dramatised and under-feared, even as it accounts for the greater share of human history.
“It could happen here,” say the prophets of a fascist future, as though the rest of us were discounting the possibility. In truth, the failure of imagination is all theirs. 

The great dictators of the 20th century have such a hold on western thought as to numb it to other kinds of civilisational danger. 

If minds as fine as Philip Roth’s and Aldous Huxley’s assumed that a bleak future must be a totalitarian one, it is understandable that my lesser profession commits the same error. But not quite forgivable. 

True vigilance is the fear of under-government as much as of sinister government.

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Apocalypse Now
Law & Politics


Apocalypse Now

The moment we find ourselves is in is one of extreme stress and complexity. The Geopolitical fault line is most visible in Ukraine and therefore at the European periphery, however, fault lines are emerging all over the global landscape and exhibiting multiple feedback loops, which feedback loops all have viral and exponential characteristics.

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Western democracies have mutated into propagandists for war @asiatimesonline @johnpilger
Law & Politics


Western democracies have mutated into propagandists for war @asiatimesonline @johnpilger 


Marshall McLuhan’s prophecy that “the successor to politics will be propaganda” has happened. Raw propaganda is now the rule in Western democracies, especially the US and Britain.
On matters of war and peace, ministerial deceit is reported as news. Inconvenient facts are censored, demons are nurtured. 

The model is corporate spin, the currency of the age. In 1964, McLuhan famously declared, “The medium is the message.” The lie is the message now.
But is this new? It is more than a century since Edward Bernays, the father of spin, invented “public relations” as a cover for war propaganda. What is new is the virtual elimination of dissent in the mainstream.

The great editor David Bowman, author of The Captive Press, called this “a defenestration of all who refuse to follow a line and to swallow the unpalatable and are brave.” 

He was referring to independent journalists and whistleblowers, the honest mavericks to whom media organizations once gave space, often with pride. The space has been abolished.

The war hysteria that has rolled in like a tidal wave in recent weeks and months is the most striking example. Known by its jargon “shaping the narrative,” much if not most of it is pure propaganda.
The Russians are coming. Russia is worse than bad. Vladimir Putin is evil, “a Nazi like Hitler,” salivated Chris Bryant, a Labour member of the British Parliament. 

Ukraine is about to be invaded by Russia – tonight, this week, next week. The sources include an ex-CIA propagandist who now speaks for the US State Department and offers no evidence of his claims about Russian actions because “it comes from the US government.”
The no-evidence rule also applies in London. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who spent £500,000 (US$680,000) of public money flying to Australia in a private plane to warn the Canberra government that both Russia and China were about to pounce, offered no evidence. 

Antipodean heads nodded; the “narrative” is unchallenged there. One rare exception, former prime minister Paul Keating, called Truss’ warmongering “demented.”
Truss has blithely confused the countries of the Baltic and Black seas. In Moscow, she told the Russian foreign minister that Britain would never accept Russian sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh – until it was pointed out to her that these places were not part of Ukraine but in Russia. 

Read the Russian press about the buffoonery of this pretender to 10 Downing Street and cringe.

This entire farce, recently starring Boris Johnson in Moscow playing a clownish version of his hero Winston Churchill, might be enjoyed as satire were it not for its willful abuse of facts and historical understanding and the real danger of war.

Vladimir Putin refers to the “genocide” in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. After the coup in Ukraine in 2014 – orchestrated by Barack Obama’s “point person” in Kiev, Victoria Nuland – the coup regime, infested with neo-Nazis, launched a campaign of terror against Russian-speaking Donbas, which accounts for a third of Ukraine’s population.
Overseen by Central Intelligence Agency director John Brennan in Kiev, “special security units” coordinated savage attacks on the people of Donbas, who opposed the coup. 

Video and witness reports show bused fascist thugs burning the trade-union headquarters in the city of Odessa, killing 41 people trapped inside. 

The police were standing by. Obama congratulated the “duly elected” coup regime for its “remarkable restraint.”
In the US media the Odessa atrocity was played down as “murky” and a “tragedy” in which “nationalists” (neo-Nazis) attacked “separatists” (people collecting signatures for a referendum on a federal Ukraine). 

Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal damned the victims – “Deadly Ukraine Fire Likely Sparked by Rebels, Government Says.”
Professor Stephen Cohen, acclaimed as America’s leading authority on Russia, wrote:

“The pogrom-like burning to death of ethnic Russians and others in Odessa … reawakened memories of Nazi extermination squads in Ukraine during World War II.… [Today] stormtroop-like assaults on gays, Jews, elderly ethnic Russians, and other ‘impure’ citizens are widespread throughout Kiev-ruled Ukraine, along with torchlight marches reminiscent of those that eventually inflamed Germany in the late 1920s and 1930s.…

“The police and official legal authorities do virtually nothing to prevent these neo-fascist acts or to prosecute them. On the contrary, Kiev has officially encouraged them by systematically rehabilitating and even memorializing Ukrainian collaborators with Nazi German extermination pogroms … renaming streets in their honor, building monuments to them, rewriting history to glorify them, and more.”
Today, neo-Nazi Ukraine is seldom mentioned. That the British are training the Ukrainian National Guard, which includes neo-Nazis, is not news. 

(See Matt Kennard’s Declassified report in Consortium News on February 15.) 

The return of violent, endorsed fascism to 21st-century Europe, to quote Harold Pinter, “never happened … even while it was happening.”
On December 16, the United Nations tabled a resolution that called for “combating glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazism and other practices that contribute to fuelling contemporary forms of racism.” The only nations to vote against it were the United States and Ukraine.
Almost every Russian knows that it was across the plains of Ukraine’s “borderland” that Adolf Hitler’s divisions swept in from the west in 1941, bolstered by Ukraine’s Nazi cultists and collaborators. The result was more than 20 million Russians dead.
Setting aside the maneuvers and cynicism of geopolitics, whoever the players, this historical memory is the driving force behind Russia’s respect-seeking, self-protective security proposals, which were published in Moscow in the week the UN voted 130-2 to outlaw Nazism. They are:
These amount to a comprehensive draft of a peace plan for all of postwar Europe and ought to be welcomed in the West. 

But who understands their significance in Britain? What they are told is that Putin is a pariah and a threat to Christendom.

Russian-speaking Ukrainians, under economic blockade by Kiev for seven years, are fighting for their survival. 

The “massing” army we seldom hear about is the 13 Ukrainian army brigades laying siege to Donbas: an estimated 150,000 troops. If they attack, the provocation to Russia will almost certainly mean war.

In 2015, brokered by the Germans and French, the presidents of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France met in Minsk and signed an interim peace deal. 

Ukraine agreed to offer autonomy to Donbas, now the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The Minsk Agreement has never been given a chance. In Britain, the line amplified by Prime Minister Boris Johnson is that Ukraine is being “dictated to” by world leaders. For its part, Britain is arming Ukraine and training its army.
Since the first Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has in effect marched right up to Russia’s most sensitive border, having demonstrated its bloody aggression in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and broken solemn promises to pull back. 

Having dragged European “allies” into American wars that do not concern them, the great unspoken is that NATO itself is the real threat to European security.
In Britain, a state and media xenophobia is triggered at the very mention of “Russia.” Why? Is it because the restoration of imperial mythology demands, above all, a permanent enemy? Certainly, we deserve better.

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Layer on top of this a highly managed media construct which is essentially a Claque where alternative voices are deplatformed and we have an environment which was accurately described thus by @FukuyamaFrancis
Law & Politics


Layer on top of this a highly managed media construct which is essentially a Claque where alternative voices are deplatformed and we have an environment which was accurately described thus by @FukuyamaFrancis

The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.05729
Dollar Index 104.128
Japan Yen 135.4605
Swiss Franc 0.9609500 
Pound 1.226195
Aussie 0.689900
India Rupee 78.25200 
South Korea Won 1300.975 
Brazil Real 5.1949000
Egypt Pound 18.740000
South Africa Rand 15.924800 

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Albanian lessons for regulators nervously eyeing the crypto world @FT #Bitcoin
World Currencies


Albanian lessons for regulators nervously eyeing the crypto world @FT #Bitcoin

Clearly, the parallels between the Albanian pyramid schemes and today’s crypto ecosystem are more conceptual than concrete. But both depended utterly on continual inflows of money from fresh entrants to be sustained. 

New money is the magic that makes everything go around, from the sky-high interest rates promised by Albanian investment schemes to the juicy returns of modern-day digital “yield farming”. 

Even Nassim Nicholas Taleb, initially a fan of bitcoin, has now concluded that it is nothing more than a “gimmick” that functions like a Ponzi scheme. 

The seedy side is also problematic, with cryptocurrencies widely used to facilitate criminality.
However, when the schemes collapsed and immiserated much of the population, the debacle undermined support in authority, and plunged Albania into civil disorder. 

By March 1997, one local newspaper said: “For the moment, just assume Albania doesn’t exist.”

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27 NOV 17 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!". #Bitcoin
World Currencies



27 NOV 17 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!".  #Bitcoin


T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men 

Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom.


There are many cryptocurrency schemes which are sold on the same grounds as the greatest South Sea Bubble prospectus: 

“For carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.”
Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”


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GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on. #Bitcoin
World Currencies



GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on. #Bitcoin 


"I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding."
"WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued.
"It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell."
He then confessed he'd had some whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y.  [HODL Definition | Investopedia]


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Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL
World Currencies


Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL


“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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Nightmare becomes reality in Sri Lanka as govt has no choice but to declare economy has ‘collapsed’ @CityAM
Emerging Markets


Nightmare becomes reality in Sri Lanka as govt has no choice but to declare economy has ‘collapsed’ @CityAM


After months of shortages of food, fuel and electricity. Sri Lanka’s prime minister said this morning the country’s debt-laden economy has “collapsed.”
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told Sri Lanka’s parliament today that the South Asian country is “facing a far more serious situation beyond the mere shortages of fuel, gas, electricity and food. Our economy has completely collapsed.”
Wickremesinghe is also the finance minister tasked with stabilising the economy.

He said Sri Lanka is unable to purchase imported fuel, even for cash, due to heavy debts owed by its petroleum corporation.
He said the government missed out on the chance to turn the situation around, and warned that “we are now seeing signs of a possible fall to rock bottom”.
“Currently, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation is $700m in debt,” he told legislators.

He said the government missed out on the chance to turn the situation around, and warned that “we are now seeing signs of a possible fall to rock bottom”.
“Currently, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation is $700m in debt,” he told legislators.
“No country or organisation in the world is willing to provide fuel to us. They are even reluctant to provide fuel for cash.”

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Malawian President @LAZARUSCHAKWERA fired his head of police and said he won’t delegate duties to Vice President @SKChilima after they were named in a corruption probe. @business
Africa


Malawian President @LAZARUSCHAKWERA  fired his head of police and said he won’t delegate duties to Vice President @SKChilima  after they were named in a corruption probe. @business 


The duo were among more than 50 public officials to be linked to Zuneth Sattar, a Malawian now based in the UK who is alleged to have paid bribes to win state contracts worth more than $150 million, Chakwera said in an address to the nation Tuesday. 
The move is the latest crackdown by Chakwera on graft, one of the issues he campaigned on to win election in a rerun vote two years ago. 

He fired his entire cabinet in January after just one of his ministers was accused of corruption, while police arrested a former finance minster and ex-central bank governor late last year. 
Malawi is one of the world’s least-developed countries, and funding from international donors was halted almost a decade ago following the emergence of a major state corruption scandal. 

Chakwera has said he expects to clinch a new financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund this year, a deal that would be key to kicking off an economic revival. 
Zuneth Sattar was arrested in the UK in 2021 for alleged corruption and is under investigation, the Financial Times reported last month. 

A London court has refused to let him leave the country, the newspaper said. He denies wrongdoing. 
Chakwera said the corruption report was light on detail about how Vice President Chilima was involved with Sattar, one reason he stopped short of a straight dismissal. 

Chakwera picked Chilima as his running mate in 2020 to unite two opposition parties in his winning election campaign. 
The Vice President’s office was not available for comment. However Chilima told reporters last month he wasn’t going to comment on the allegations, preferring to allow the rule of law to take its course.

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Economics likely to trump ethnicity in Kenya’s August poll @issafrica
Africa


Economics likely to trump ethnicity in Kenya’s August poll @issafrica 


Kenyans go to the polls on 9 August, and for the first time, the contest is dominated by class rather than ethnicity. 

Kenya has a painful history of violence during its election seasons. The lowest ebb was after the 2007 elections when 1 100 people were killed and 650 000 displaced, resulting in a controversial International Criminal Court case.
Four candidates are cleared to run for the presidency. The two main contenders are former prime minister Raila Odinga and the current deputy president, William Ruto. 

The country faces an increasing debt burden, higher taxation and a weakened shilling. 

The key issue swaying voters is the economy, exacerbated by post-COVID-19 global inflation that has sent essential commodities prices soaring, according to International Crisis Group.
The economy will be the main battleground in the competition for votes, with debates over class likely to trump (although not completely overshadow) ethnic allegiance.
Ruto has firmly positioned himself as a populist leader with his ‘hustler nation’ slogan designed to position him as the preferred candidate for working-class Kenyans. 

He is challenging what he describes as the ‘dynasty’ politics of his rival Odinga, who is making his fifth bid for the presidency, backed by President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is barred constitutionally from running again.
Despite both sides’ ethnic arithmetic, it is the candidates’ record on delivery that will count
Both Odinga and Kenyatta are scions of Kenya’s first vice-president and president respectively. 

Ruto says the pair represents an entitled old guard in a country where three-quarters of the population is under 30, and post-independence promises such as eradicating high unemployment are unfulfilled. 

In contrast, Odinga is running on the ‘Azimio la Umoja’ platform – with a unifying agenda aimed at bringing Kenyans together to address corruption and unemployment.
In what was presented as a move to strengthen democracy, Odinga and Kenyatta tried and failed to initiate constitutional changes through the Building Bridges Initiative. 

It aimed to expand the executive and set up the office of the official opposition leader in the national leadership structure. 

The initiative also intended to create more voter constituencies, even though this was rejected through civil society litigation and public opposition from Ruto, who described it as ‘political conmanship.’
Both presidential rivals have chosen running mates from the Kikuyu – Kenya’s largest ethnic group. 

The Kikuyu also dominate much of the country’s business landscape, with significant interests and land ownership around the Nairobi Metropolitan area. 

However, despite both sides’ ethnic arithmetic and balancing, it is the candidates’ records on practical delivery that are being pushed to the fore.
Odinga has selected veteran lawyer, women’s rights campaigner and former justice minister Martha Karua as his running mate. 

Karua is the first woman in Kenya to be nominated for the role in a major ticket. 

A renowned human rights defender, her selection has led to the mobilisation of women, especially in rural areas and on social media.
More class-focused politics rather than ethnic-tinged competition doesn’t mean more peaceful elections
Ruto has opted for the lesser-known Rigathi Gachagua in the hope of mobilising support in the Kikuyu heartland of Mount Kenya. 

Despite their business dominance, there is a large Kikuyu underclass who arguably haven’t benefited from having leaders from among their numbers, which Ruto will try to capitalise on. 

More important is Gachagua’s experience as a former civil servant and personal assistant to Kenyatta when he was the opposition leader between 2002 and 2006.
More class-focused politics than ethnic-tinged competition doesn’t necessarily translate into more peaceful elections. 

But all the signs are that Kenyans are tired of violence and more focused on economic survival. 

They are also apathetic about elections, as reflected in low voter registration. (Although the National Cohesion and Integration Commission released a report in May identifying 16 out of Kenya’s 47 counties as ‘volatile’.)
A key indicator of violence will be how the courts and police conduct themselves during and after the elections. 

Kenya’s police force was blamed for one-third of the deaths during the 2007 poll, according to the Commission of Inquiry into Post Election Violence led by Justice Philip Waki. 

Violence in the 2013 and 2017 polls was less deadly, and the court’s demand for a rerun of the 2017 election indicated a strengthening of Kenya’s vital democratic institutions.
The presidential race will undoubtedly be tight, with the possibility of a second-round run-off
Other developments that suggest the August polls may be more peaceful are the handling of voter registration, the successful application of technology in the voter process and votes transmission, and transparency of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
All the signs point to Kenyans being less interested in electing leaders based on ethnic identity and more on their capacity for good governance. 

This has made it difficult to assess who between Odinga and Ruto is leading. 

Fake polls and new surveying techniques conducted through social media platforms by notable personalities have arguably eroded trust in pre-election opinion polls.
However, the presidential race will undoubtedly be tight, with the possibility of a second-round run-off. 

Whoever wins, the priority will be putting the economy back on track. August could hopefully see the beginning of a shift from ethnic-based to issue-based politics – a sign of political maturity in Kenyan elections.
Karen Allen, Consultant, Mohamed Daghar, Regional Coordinator for Eastern Africa and Willis Okumu, Senior Researcher, ENACT Project, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Nairobi

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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