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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 25th of July 2022
 
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Africa

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“Is it safe?”
World Of Finance

In the movie Marathon Man [directed by John Schlesinger] Laurence Olivier who plays Dr. Christian Szell a Nazi war criminal straps Dustin Hoffman into a dentist's chair and without any anaesthetic starts drilling into Hoffman's mouth

“Is it safe?”

“Yes, it’s safe. Very safe. So safe you wouldn’t believe it.”
[long pause]
“Is it safe?”
“No. It’s not safe. It’s very dangerous. Be careful.”
That Snippet from that Film seems to me the perfect accompaniment preferably on an eternal loop to the World and the markets we find ourselves in today.
''We are off to Moscow off to Moscow we go to Regime Change The Wicked Witch of the West [or is it the East?] aka Vladimir Putin''
Nancy Pelosi has pronounced She is going further East all the way to Taiwan because real Men and Women go to China and Nancy fancies a Pop at ''Pooh Bear'' 

and meanwhile Xi has salami sliced his way and snaffled up Hong Kong and Nancy could provide him with the perfect excuse for a Taiwan casus Belli.

“Is it safe?” some of Us ask.
At the end of last week we saw a chink in the ''whatever it takes'' [to bring inflation down] Narrative. 
[The] Hike cycle terminal rate cruised lower to 3.28 (Orange) vs 3.49 last week (Blue) @Fullcarry.

The Dollar index came off the boil @dma_2022

and even the seriously beaten up Frontier Eurobond Index managed a small rebound.
After the #ECB hiked rates by 50bps, German 10y declined from >1.3% to almost 1% in a matter of 24h. German 2y down to 0.4%. @COdendahl

When I was a lot younger we used to play a Game called ''Red Eye'' Everyone gets a card and everyone else's card is visible to you except your own. And you bet on that basis. 

The Question is whether if this were a Game of Red Eye and the market has now seen that Powell and Lagarde are holding the 2 of spades and that this hiking cycle is near done. 

If that is the case, the Yen is a screaming Buy and the Dollar a Big Sell.
I do not expect Inflation to crash, however, which is a Caveat Emptor to this thesis and therefore the risk of Weimarisation is material.

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Leaf Storm and Other Stories | Author: Gabriel Garcia Marquez
Misc.


 Leaf Storm and Other Stories | Author: Gabriel Garcia Marquez

LIFE IN MACONDO is filled with mysteries and miracles. Some are as old as man himself and somehow easier to understand: the strange finality of death, the furious activity that swells up around prosperity and then disappears just as suddenly as it came

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Is it really social distancing if we are all surrounded by djinn ASKED @AAOLOMI and I thought to myself we are all djinn now.
Misc.


Is it really social distancing if we are all surrounded by djinn ASKED @AAOLOMI and I thought to myself we are all djinn now.

The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them. DJinn have the power to travel large distances at extreme speeds and are thought to live in remote areas.

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In North Africa the spectral jackal known as the bardi would become a shapeshifting jinn. @aaolomi
Africa


In North Africa the spectral jackal known as the bardi would become a shapeshifting jinn.  @aaolomi

The bardi would haunt ruins and deserts, hunting its prey with terrifying howls.

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In South Asia the spirits known as bhut would also become linked to the jinn. @aaolomi
Asia


In South Asia the spirits known as bhut would also become linked to the jinn. @aaolomi

The bhut was traditionally the restless dead, returned to haunt the living. They could shapeshift, float, and often lurked in trees.

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But Islamic thought also accounts for other types of spiritual-encounters. @aaolomi
Misc.


But Islamic thought also accounts for other types of spiritual-encounters. @aaolomi

All humans possess a ruh, an eternal spirit, which upon death resides in barzakh, the veil. (see G. Archer’s A Place Between Two Places).

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What Kissinger didn’t answer: What if Russia wins? @asiatimesonline @davidpgoldman
Law & Politics


What Kissinger didn’t answer: What if Russia wins? @asiatimesonline @davidpgoldman


Kissinger defended the position he had advanced in May at a teleconference of the World Economic Forum, namely peace negotiations based on the status quo prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February 24.

But Russia has won extensive territory since then and appears poised to win the whole of the Donbas, with a quarter of Ukraine’s land and three-quarters of its industrial capacity. 

What if Russia won’t return to the February 24 Line of Contact? Der Spiegel didn’t ask, and Kissinger didn’t say, not directly, in any case.

Spiegel also asked, “How do you rate Biden’s statement that President Putin cannot stay in power”? Kissinger replied: “That was not a wise statement.”

Spiegel asked, “Before the Ukraine war, there was a discussion about whether the United States should seek closer relations with Russia in order to put pressure on its rival China… The question today is whether Washington should ease tensions with Beijing in the face of the Russian threat, as you and Nixon did 50 years ago. Do you think America is strong enough to take on the two biggest opponents at the same time?”

And Kissinger concluded:


If that meant escalating the war in Ukraine into a war against Russia while maintaining a hostile attitude towards China, then I think that would be very unwise. I support NATO’s and America’s efforts to stop Russia’s aggression and restore Ukraine to pre-war dimensions. 


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Jul 3 It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here.
Law & Politics



Jul 3 It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here.

It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here. 

Shoigu [who has resurrected himself from the dead You will recall Information Warfare Specialists had informed us that he was on his last legs] has pronounced the Lugansk People's Republic liberated. 

As mentioned before, I see Russia moving eventually towards Odesa, landlocking Ukraine and only then coming to the Table.
The inability to read the battlefield, the extraordinary propaganda threads on Twitter, the deplatforming of any voice that countered the Propaganda effort have produced a ''Fairy Tale'' reality and a geoeconomic boomerang effect which is shredding the standard of living in the West and whose consequence will be Regime Change in Western Capitals long before Moscow.
The choice for Western Policy Makers is extraordinarily bleak. 

It is either an ignominious retreat a la Afghanistan [and this creates a risk of a domino effect with Taiwan making it a potential Trifecta of reversals [Afghanistan, Ukraine and Taiwan]. 

The Ukrainian Military is largely extinguished and there will be no insurgency which will bleed Russia. 


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China has publicly threatened “strong measures” if @SpeakerPelosi proceeds with the planned visit in August. @FT
Law & Politics


China has publicly threatened “strong measures” if @SpeakerPelosi  proceeds with the planned visit in August. @FT 

China has issued stark private warnings to the Biden administration about the upcoming trip to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, triggering alarm bells among White House officials who oppose her visit.

Six people familiar with the Chinese warnings said they were significantly stronger than the threats that Beijing has made in the past when it was unhappy with US actions or policy on Taiwan.
China has publicly threatened “strong measures” if Pelosi proceeds with the planned visit in August. 

But one person said China had expressed “stronger opposition” to the US in private than before. 

Several other people familiar with the situation said the private rhetoric went even further by suggesting a possible military response.
Beijing has not been explicit about its potential responses. 

Its military could try to block Pelosi from landing in Taiwan or take other actions to impede her visit, such as using fighter jets to intercept her US military aircraft.
Several people said the White House was trying to assess whether China was making serious threats or engaging in brinkmanship in an attempt to pressure Pelosi to abandon her trip.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other senior National Security Council officials oppose the trip because of the risk of escalating tension across the Taiwan Strait, according to two people familiar with the debate.
The NSC declined to comment on whether the administration had urged Pelosi to cancel her trip. 

John Kirby, NSC head of strategic communications, said on Friday the NSC team provided “context, facts and geopolitical relevant information”, and that the Speaker made her own decisions.
The controversy over the trip has sparked concern among Washington’s allies who are worried that it could trigger a crisis between the US and China, according to several of the people with knowledge of the situation.
In another illustration of the heightened concern, US ambassador to China Nick Burns abruptly cut short a visit to Washington this week and returned to Beijing, partly because of the mounting concerns over Taiwan and also to prepare for an upcoming phone call between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The state department declined to comment.
Biden this week said he expected to speak to Xi by the end of the month. The two leaders are expected to discuss Taiwan, which has emerged as a serious flashpoint.
China has flown an increasing number of warplanes into Taiwan’s “air defence identification zone” since Biden came to office. 

In May, Biden said the US would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan from any Chinese attack.
The controversy about Pelosi’s trip erupted after the Financial Times revealed that she planned to visit Taiwan to show support as it comes under rising pressure from China in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has elevated fears about Chinese military action. 

Pelosi and her delegation will also visit Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia.
The timing of the visit is sensitive for China. It will come in the same month as the August 1 anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. 

It may also coincide with the Communist party leadership’s annual conclave in the coastal resort of Beidaihe where cadres discuss policy but also sometimes tackle power struggles.
The conclave is even more important this year as Xi will have to lay the ground for securing an unprecedented third term as party head at the Chinese Communist party’s 20th Congress in November.
Since the US normalised relations with China and switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, it has maintained a “one China” policy under which it recognises Beijing as the sole government of China while only acknowledging Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China.
Beijing has accused Biden of diluting that policy by taking steps such as sending a high-profile delegation of former US officials to Taipei earlier this year.
Pelosi would be the most senior US politician to visit Taiwan since then-Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich travelled to Taipei in 1997. 

Beijing is opposed to any moves that appear to confer legitimacy on Taiwan as an independent country or make the US relationship more formal.
Some experts say China erroneously believes the White House is co-ordinating the visit because Pelosi and Biden belong to the same party, even though Congress is independent and Biden has no power to block her travel plans.
The Pentagon this week briefed Pelosi on the scenarios that could occur if she travels to Taipei. 

Following that briefing, Biden told reporters that “the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now” for Pelosi to proceed. But US officials have said that the military simply outlined the various risks attached to such a visit.
At a news conference the following day, Pelosi said Biden had not raised any concern about the trip, which she refused to confirm. 

However, she indirectly referred to it by saying that Biden appeared to be pointing to some of the scenarios that could occur if she visited Taiwan.
“I think what the president was saying is [that] maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese,” she said. “I’ve heard it anecdotally, but I haven’t heard it from the president.”
Pelosi’s office did not respond to a request for comment about whether she might abandon her trip.
People briefed on national security affairs in Taipei said the risk that Beijing might markedly step up military aggression in response to Pelosi’s visit was more pronounced than last year given the rising tension.
“Previously the gangster was wearing a suit, but now he is directly taking the knife out,” said a senior Taiwanese official.

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1-4-2-1
Law & Politics

1-4-2-1
1-4-2-1
1-4-2-1. The first 1 refers to defending what has since come to be called the homeland. 
The 4 refers to deterring hostilities in four key regions of the world. 
The 2 means the U.S. armed forces must have the strength to win swiftly in two near-simultaneous conflicts in those regions. 
The final 1 means that we must win one of those conflicts “decisively,” toppling the enemy’s regime.

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“the reality-based community” with those who inhabited the realm of faith. Once you’ve made the move from the former to the latter, life is so much freer
Misc.


“the reality-based community” with those who inhabited the realm of faith. Once you’ve made the move from the former to the latter, life is so much freer


On it goes, a dreamworld untethered to facts or even observable reality. 

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A Deep Freeze winter is a given. And then there’s the incoming economic/financial crisis, the Definitive Monster from Hell
Law & Politics


A Deep Freeze winter is a given. And then there’s the incoming economic/financial crisis, the Definitive Monster from Hell

Western governments are collapsing. Sanctions are being ditched – practically in secret. A Deep Freeze winter is a given. 

And then there’s the incoming economic/financial crisis, the Definitive Monster from Hell, as Martin Armstrong has made it quite clear: 

“There is no way they can get out of this other than default. If they default, they are worried about millions of people storming the parliaments of Europe…This is really a tremendous financial crisis that we are facing. They have been borrowing year after year since WWII with zero intention of paying anything back.”

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JUN 20 :: Fast Forward However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of this Protest
Law & Politics


JUN 20 :: Fast Forward However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of this Protest

It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. 

Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed and identify with each other rather than a ‘’boogaloo’’ structure that has been placed upon them.
Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.

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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger
Law & Politics


21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger

Nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. 
Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
Antonio Gramsci wrote, “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. now is the time of monsters.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Euro 1.020075 
Dollar Index 106.687
Japan Yen 136.2985 
Swiss Franc 0.963375
Pound 1.19745
Aussie 0.690475 
India Rupee 79.83045 
South Korea Won 1311.345 
Brazil Real 5.4984 
Egypt Pound 18.867980 
South Africa Rand 16.858050

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Liz Truss' planned tax cuts - worth some £30 billion - may require interest rates to rise as high as 7%, according to Professor Patrick Minford - Truss' economic guru. @TLDRNewsUK
World Of Finance


Liz Truss' planned tax cuts - worth some £30 billion - may require interest rates to rise as high as 7%, according to Professor Patrick Minford - Truss' economic guru. @TLDRNewsUK

Professor Minford stressed higher rates are "a good thing" as they kill off "zombie companies".

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FM #Lavrov: Africa has a population of 1.4 bln people. This is a great portion of the modern world & probably the most promising market. @mfa_russia
Africa


☝️ Companies & countries with good vision are building long-term strategies with regard to #Africa, which is the continent of the future.

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Article by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov for the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram, the Congolese Dispatch de Brazzaville, the Ugandan New Vision, as well as the Ethiopian Ethiopia Herald, July 22, 2022
Africa


Article by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov for the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram, the Congolese Dispatch de Brazzaville, the Ugandan New Vision, as well as the Ethiopian Ethiopia Herald, July 22, 2022


On the eve of my visits to several African countries, I would like to share my reflections on the prospects for Russia-Africa relations in the current geopolitical context with esteemed readers.
Today, African states play an increasingly important role in the global politics and economy, take an active part in solving key modern-day problems. Their solidarity voice sounds more and more harmoniously in world affairs.
Russia has consistently advocated Africa’s strengthened position in the multipolar architecture of a world order which should be based on the principles of the UN Charter and take the world’s cultural and civilizational diversity into account. 

In this context, we welcome the successful development of such integration structures as, for example, the African Union, East African Community, Southern African Development Community, Economic Community of Central African States, Economic Community of West African States and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). 

We consider the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area as an important step towards the true economic independence of the continent, its final liberation from any manifestations of discrimination and coercion.
Russia-Africa ties are based on the time-tested bonds of friendship and cooperation. Our country who has not stained itself with the bloody crimes of colonialism, 

has always sincerely supported Africans in their struggle for liberation from colonial oppression, provided practical and often gratuitous assistance to the peoples of the continent in the formation of their statehood, 

creation of the foundations of national economies, defense capabilities build up, and training of qualified personnel. 

Today we stand in solidarity with the African demands to complete the process of decolonization and support relevant initiatives on the UN platform.
The development of a comprehensive partnership with African countries remains among the top priorities of Russia's foreign policy. 

We are willing to contribute to its further growth - in line with the strategic decisions taken in late October 2019 at the first Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi.
At the same time, I would specially emphasize: our country does not impose anything on anyone or tells others how to live. 

We treat with great respect the sovereignty of the States of Africa, and their inalienable right to determine the path of their development for themselves. 

We are firmly committed to the "African solutions to African problems" principle. 

Such an approach to developing inter-State ties dramatically differs from the "master – slave" logic imposed by former metropolitan countries, which reproduces the obsolete colonial model.
We know that the African colleagues does not approve of the undisguised attempts of the US and their European satellites to gain the upper hand, and to impose a unipolar world order to the international community. 

We appreciate the considered African position as to the situation in and around Ukraine.

 Although unprecedented by its scale the pressure from beyond has not brought our friends to join the anti-Russian sanctions. Such an independent path deserves deep respect.
For sure, the current geopolitical situation requires certain adjustment of the mechanisms of our interaction: first of all, there is a question of ensuring seamless logistic and tuning the system of financial settlements to make them secure from the outer interference. 

In cooperation with its partners, Russia takes steps to enhance the use of national currencies and payment systems. 

We are working to gradually reduce the share of dollar and euro in mutual trade. 

We stand generally for establishing an efficient financial system that is proof against the potential impact from the unfriendly States.
The task of bringing Russian and African economic operators to each other’s markets and encouraging them to participate in large-scale infrastructure projects also comes to the fore. 

We assume that, as conducted, the second Africa - Russia summit will facilitate settling those and other tasks. Together with our African friends, we have got down to working through its content.
Food security issues are currently high on the international agenda. 

We are well aware of the importance of Russian supplies of socially important commodities, including food, to many countries around the world. 

We are mindful that these supplies play an important role in preserving social stability as well as in achieving the benchmarks of the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
I would like to emphasize that the speculations of Western and Ukrainian propaganda that Russia allegedly "exports hunger" are completely unfounded. 

In fact, these are yet another attempt to shift the blame to others. It is well known that already during the time of "coronacrisis" the collective West, using the mechanism of currency issuance, "absorbed" commodity and food flows, worsening the situation in the developing countries dependent on food imports. 

That is when the grave situation on the food market began to take shape. Western sanctions imposed on Russia in recent months have further exacerbated negative trends.
It is essential that all our African friends understand that Russia will continue to fulfill in good faith its obligations under international contracts with regard to exports of food, fertilizers, energy and other goods vital for Africa. Russia is taking all measures to this end.
Moscow will continue to pursue a peace-loving foreign policy and play a balancing role in international affairs. 

We are in favor of broad interstate cooperation based on the provisions of the UN Charter, first of all the principle of the sovereign equality of states. 

We will continue to strengthen productive interaction with foreign partners who in their turn are willing to cooperate with us.
In this context, we assume that relations between Russia and Africa, whether political, humanitarian or trade and investment, are of an intrinsic value and do not depend on fluctuations in the international environment. 

It is good to see that our African friends have a similar understanding. Together we will be even stronger.

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From Russia with Love
Africa


From Russia with Love

“Our African agenda is positive and future-oriented. We do not ally with someone against someone else, and we strongly oppose any geopolitical games involving Africa.”

“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov back in November 2018.

Andrew Korybko writes Moscow invaluably fills the much-needed niche of providing its partners there with “Democratic Security”, or in other words, the cost-effective and low-commitment capabilities needed to thwart colour revolutions and resolve unconventional Wars (collectively referred to as Hybrid War).
To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting in- cipient and ongoing color revolutions, just like its private military contractors (PMCs) have supposedly done the same when it comes to ending insurgencies.

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Exclusive: Internal report shows EU fears losing Africa over Ukraine @devex @vchadw
Africa


Exclusive: Internal report shows EU fears losing Africa over Ukraine @devex @vchadw


With Europe and Africa increasingly split over the war in Ukraine, European diplomats have argued in a confidential report for a more “transactional” approach to foreign aid that would tie funding for African countries to their willingness to work “based on common values and a joint vision.”

The five-page document, overseen by Birgitte Markussen, the head of the European Union delegation to the African Union, with input from the heads of mission from EU countries in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, was circulated to diplomats in Brussels this week and seen by Devex.
It provides a candid assessment of how those on the ground see the EU losing the battle for hearts and minds in Africa over the conflict — and what to do about it.
On the one hand, the report calls for “understanding and empathy for African challenges, and willingness to help find concrete solutions.”
But it also underlines that Europe is “the main indirect victim of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war of aggression,” citing “dramatic consequences in all aspects (security, economic, financial, social, migration - 7 million refugees, unemployment).” And it opens the possibility of calibrating foreign aid from Europe according to Africa’s stance.
“Becoming more transactional in our approach, we should be clear about the fact that the willingness of Europeans (governments and taxpayers) to maintain higher levels of financial engagement in African countries will depend on working based on common values and a joint vision,” the report reads.
Despite billions of euros pledged to Ukraine, EU officials have so far said publicly that African countries will get the same amount of development assistance from the EU institutions as that initially agreed in their 2021-2027 country plans. 

However, the latest report points out that “it is clear that the longer the war will last, the less resources there will be.”

Now is a “critical juncture” to improve the EU’s public and private messaging on the war, the report states, noting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will travel to Addis Ababa from July 26-27 to meet with the AU Commission and AU member states, and to “prepare for a possible second Africa-Russia Summit in November.”

After a long-delayed summit between EU and AU leaders in mid-February, relations between the two continents have cooled in recent months amid concerns from some African leaders that EU sanctions against Russia in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine are exacerbating the global food crisis.
Top EU officials have labored to dispel that idea.
“This food crisis is not caused by the European restrictive measures,” EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said at a meeting of the Group of 20 nations in Indonesia earlier this month. 

“The agricultural sector in Russia is not targeted. Our sanctions do not prohibit the import of Russian agricultural goods, or fertilizers, nor payment for such Russian exports.”

But the latest report from Addis Ababa makes clear diplomats’ view that this message is not getting through.

“The effects of EU sanctions on third countries need to be carefully assessed by experts, and factual information should be shared with diplomats,” the report states. 

“It is not enough to say that ‘EU sanctions are not responsible for the food crisis’, we need more substance and sharper LTTs [lines to take], including from EU Headquarters. Not only on sanctions, but also on cases where we have been accused of double standards and on the fact that the longer the war takes, the more our resources are going to be stretched.”
Friction between the two continents was evident again Friday as a spokesperson for AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki tweeted that a deal to allow the export of grain from Black Sea ports was “the result of a direct appeal by the @_AfricanUnion at a … [meeting] with President Putin in Sochi. To which many disagreed at the time.”
‘Drifting further away’
The diplomats’ report cites the Sochi meeting in early June as part of “a trend which seems to indicate that the AU and its Member States may be drifting further away from our position,” at least publicly.
“The EU’s reputation as being a mediator, a peacemaker, is eroding due to the Union’s military assistance to Ukraine,” they write. “In Africa, the EU is seen as fuelling the conflict, not as a peace facilitator.”
“Many AUMS [AU member states] do not identify an interest in taking sides in what they perceive as an ‘East-West’ conflict,” the report states. 

“The colonial and post-colonial legacies, including historical ties of a good range of countries with the Soviet Union and subsequently Russia, strongly influence mindsets and positions, as do perceived Western double standards. Furthermore, AUMS are concerned about Russian pressure on them.”
However, the diplomats write that African countries are “seriously concerned by the impact of the war on food security incl. supply of fertilisers, energy and financial systems – i.e. stability in their countries - and are thus calling for a review of sanctions and negotiations towards a political solution to the war.”
Against this backdrop, the report goes on to outline how to make the EU’s outreach to the AU and its member states on the consequences of the Ukraine war more “targeted, audible and effective.”
‘Lecturing should be ‘banned’’
More reading:
► Urpilainen tells EU states to step up financing ahead of Africa summit
► Brussels aims to quell renewable energy tensions ahead of Africa summit
► Macron's plan for EU development finance in Africa
“African partners sometimes have the impression that the EU is lecturing them on values,” the diplomats write. “Lecturing should be ‘banned’. We must instead highlight that the defence of our values is of utmost importance, but also humbly acknowledge that it is at times complex, i.e. defending moral values vs. economic interests.”
In addition, the diplomats write that “special attention should be given to African countries’ relationship not just with Russia, but also with China.
“Relations with China are an important factor for some African countries, and they may pay extra attention to the way the war in Ukraine is viewed in Beijing.”
For all its candor, the report contains at times contradictory messages.
“EU Headquarters should provide clear data on the EU’s support and the weight of Europe-Africa relations,” the report advises. Elsewhere, it states, “We should pass frank messages to break free from being perceived mainly as a money provider.”
Similarly, it warns of “the potential negative fallouts of being perceived as pressuring Africans to take sides, or prescribing them what to do,” while later advising on the need to “stress that if Africa has ambitions to become an important global player, including in the UNSC [United Nations Security Council], it has to discuss and take positions on non-African affairs.”
For now, the report gives the impression that European diplomats would just be happy to be heard, given the risk the diplomats note that “focusing on Russia/Ukraine only will make Africans ‘turn down the volume’ and stop listening to us.”
“Listening to each other in mutual respect is what close friends and strategic partners do,” the report states. 

“Although it is unlikely that EU and AU positions will converge on Ukraine at this point in time, all communication channels must remain wide open to foster mutual understanding and respect.”

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@IMFNews told creditors a program negotiation mission will be sent to #Ethiopia b/w "late Sep. to early/mid Oct. provided conditions are right.” @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa


@IMFNews told creditors a program negotiation mission will be sent to #Ethiopia b/w "late Sep. to early/mid Oct. provided conditions are right.” @PatrickHeinisc1

Economic conditions have deteriorated "with high inflation, widening imbalances, & threadbare forex reserves.”

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Lab-Grown Wildebeest on the Menu as Cultured Meat Market Grows
Africa


Lab-Grown Wildebeest on the Menu as Cultured Meat Market Grows 



The global push to develop lab-grown meat is taking an exotic twist in South Africa, where slaughter-free cuts of springbok, wildebeest and impala could soon be on the menu.

Mogale Meat Co. has already produced Africa’s first cell-based chicken and is now developing a range of game meats without having to kill wildlife. 

While still in the research phase, the startup based in a tourist town north of Johannesburg says the first product could be ready this year, with commercial production planned within three years.
The company is targeting “the average meat consumer” who’s increasingly opting for free-range or organic products, but isn’t attracted to plant-based alternatives, said Chief Executive Officer Paul Bartels, a wildlife veterinarian who used his life savings to start the firm in 2020.
Meanwhile, Cape Town-based Mzansi Meat Co. unveiled the continent’s first cultivated beef burger in April, and wants to scale up production to supply a national fast-food chain by 2023.

The cultured meat industry, which produces proteins by growing cells instead of slaughtering animals, is still in its infancy with fewer than 100 startups worldwide, according to a report by McKinsey & Co. 

Still, by 2030 it could be worth $25 billion globally, and is attracting funding from the largest animal-protein companies including Tyson Food Inc. and Nutreco NV and investors such as Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd. and SoftBank Group Corp
South Africa is a case study of a nation where the nascent industry makes perfect sense. 
Renowned for its traditional barbecue feast known as braai, it has among the highest consumption of beef, pork and poultry in Africa. 

But the nation’s livestock industry, which dominates agricultural land use, both exacerbates and faces risks from climate change.
Cell-based meat production on a large scale could address sustainability concerns as the global population grows and people add more meat to their diets. 

It also offers food security through domestic production for nations that rely heavily on imports. 

One such country is Singapore, the first in the world to permit the sale of cultured meat.

In South Africa, where you can get springbok carpaccio at a restaurant for 145 rand ($8.50), order warthog fillet online or easily shop for ostrich biltong (the local take on jerky), Mogale Meat is betting on the popularity of game.
It intends to offer a variety of species, flavors and textures of wild meat, while conserving natural habitats for wildlife. 
“Once we’ve reached price parity with conventional meat” the company aims to capture as much of the market in South Africa and the rest of the continent as possible, Bartels said. 

The company has received early funding from three North America-based venture capital companies, Sustainable Food Ventures LLC, Big Idea Ventures LLC and Cult Food Science Corp.  

Mzansi Meat, which is backed by investors including GlassWall Syndicate and Sustainable Food Ventures, plans to raise $5 million and build Africa’s first cultivated meat facility. 
Co-founder Brett Thompson said he aims to supply a nationwide burger franchise by the end of this year or early 2023. 

“At the moment we can only produce enough to make a single burger,” he said. 

“We need to get to a quantity where we can produce thousands of kilograms before we can service a restaurant.”
Lab-Grown Meat Poses Religious Conundrum for Muslims and Jews
Before they can get their product to plate, however, the companies face regulatory hurdles. 
South African regulators haven’t kept pace with science, and there’s currently no classification for lab-grown meat, said Janusz Luterek, a lawyer specializing in food regulations at Pretoria-based Hahn & Hahn Attorneys. 

Meat is classified as “carcass” or part of an animal, rather than being “grown in a tank,” he said.
Labeling could also be an issue, as the makers of vegan and vegetarian products discovered in June. 

The agriculture department demanded goods such as plant-based meatballs, vegan nuggets and vegan BBQ ribs be removed from shelves and re-labeled, for using names commonly associated with processed meat.
It may be years before lab-grown meat can legally be sold in South Africa, without concerted government effort to update regulations, said Luterek.
The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development said there was no time frame for approval. 

“Once sufficient information is built around cultivated meat or cellular agriculture, the department will not stand in the way of crafting legislation that focuses on the sale of cultivated meat,” it said.
Thompson of Mzansi Meat is prepared for the wait.
“There are a number of challenges that a startup needs to go through and we have never considered quitting,” he said. “Our journey is only beginning.” 

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.@NAkufoAddo faces the costs of an @IMFNews deal @Africa_Conf
Africa


.@NAkufoAddo faces the costs of an @IMFNews  deal @Africa_Conf 


The government's U-turn on a bailout boosts the opposition in the short term but raises bigger questions about the economy's structure

On 13 July, after six days of talks with the government, the International Monetary Fund referred to Ghana's 'challenging economic and social situation' – code for the multiplicity of political problems and spending battles to come if negotiations on a bailout are to lead anywhere.
Negotiations could drag on for another six months, particularly after the Finance Ministry in Accra announced that it may seek a finance package of up to US$2.5 billion, over double the forecast sum (AC Vol 63 No 14, A reluctant reversion to the IMF). 

That would suggest a much more comprehensive set of economic reforms than first mooted.
The opening of negotiations with the IMF announced on 1 July followed weeks of anguished debate within the cabinet. 

One faction, led by Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta, was resolutely opposed to turning to the IMF but the majority resigned itself to the 'least bad option' after policy choices narrowed sharply (AC Vol 63 No 4, Ofori-Atta bets on the E-Levy, rejects IMF). 

Government insiders spoke of raising an extra $3bn for state spending and debt servicing in 2022-23 and claimed that the IMF would offer the most viable route.
Along with the tough spending cuts to be negotiated, President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo faces high political costs. 

Many in the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) see resorting to the IMF as shameful and a gift to the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) ahead of national elections in 2024.
Under Akufo-Addo, the NPP has tried to distinguish itself from the NDC by favouring business, from where it has drawn its strongest support, and social market policies. 

The NPP's repeated promise to voters was that it would 'never go back to the IMF'; the NDC has resorted to Bretton Woods funding seven times, under all three NDC presidents of the Fourth Republic, starting with Jerry Rawlings. 

Under Akufo-Addo, the 'no to the IMF' mantra was held up as a testament to its competent economic management.
'Tailspin'
But the state has been running on empty. Between 2017 and 2019, when Ghana had free access to the capital markets, it borrowed ($5 billion in Eurobonds alone) and spent liberally. 

The country's debt-to-GDP ratio is above 78%, payments to National Service trainees are serially months in arrears, inflation is running just under 30%, domestic banks are unable to meet more than a third of the dollar demand to cover essential fuel imports, and a long list of trade unions is threatening strike action

On 28 June a demonstration in Accra against the rising cost of living by the Arise Ghana! protest group led to clashes with police, and more are promised.
The NDC's likely presidential candidate in 2024, Akufo-Addo's predecessor John Dramani Mahama, lambasted the NPP's economic record on 30 June the day before Akufo-Addo announced the recourse to the IMF. 

Targeting Akufo-Addo, Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia and Ghana's 'Economic Management Team', Mahama demanded Ofori-Atta's sacking and dismissed his plans to raise $1bn in syndicated loans as irresponsible. 

Ghana's economy was entering a 'dizzying tailspin' of severe inflation, fiscal deficit, debt struggles, corruption, cedi depreciation and lost investor confidence, added Mahama.
It was a political role reversal for Mahama. He was President from 2011 to 2016 when borrowing to finance recurrent spending soared, driving his government to take on an IMF programme in 2015 – for which his opponents in the NPP heavily criticised him (AC Vol 56 No 18, A helping hand from the Washington twins).
Earlier, Mahama's Finance Minister Seth Terkper accused the government of wasting money on projects such as the national cathedral in Accra. 

Ofori-Atta now says the cathedral will cost around $350m, much higher than previous official estimates, from a mixture of private and state resources. Critics warn it could cost $1bn or more.
Low profile
Having bowed to the cabinet's view on the IMF deal, finance ministry officials are keeping a low profile on the issue, as is Akufo-Addo. Ofori-Atta has not spoken in public since the 1 July announcement.
Bawumia, the frontrunner to be the NPP's presidential candidate in 2024, broke the government's official silence on 14 July with a policy speech at the Accra Business School putting the most upbeat spin on the IMF talks.
'With enhanced fiscal discipline and structural reforms to restore debt sustainability and growth, we should emerge stronger than we have with the previous 17 IMF programmes,' he said.
Criticising policy to date, Bawumia added: 'The focus of governments since independence has been on crisis management… factors such as the collapse in commodity prices, increase in oil prices, debt unsustainability, political instability, macroeconomic instability.' 

This, argued Bawumia, had been at the expense of 'building systems and institutions' that drive sustainable growth.
Listening carefully to Bawumia would have been the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Ernest Addison, who is known to differ with top members of the Economic Management Team. 

Certainly, the opposition NDC has won the first round in the fight over the IMF talks. 

But the government hopes that if it can tie up a deal quickly, using it to improve fiscal discipline and debt sustainability, that could allow Ghana's return to the Eurobond market and start to turn around the economy ahead.
Perceptions about the government's options have changed rapidly. London-based Tellimer's head of sovereign/fixed income research Stuart Culverhouse, who in February viewed a return to the IMF as an absolute 'last resort', suggests that a quick agreement of a programme with the IMF could produce some benefits ahead of the next elections. 

He also takes the view that – depending on the IMF's view and updated 'debt sustainability analysis' calculations – a restructuring of Ghana's debts under the IMF/G20-backed 'Common Framework' may not be required.
Standard Chartered's Chief Economist for Africa and the Middle East, Razia Khan, suggests that recent events and past policy-choices have left Ghana with little option but to approach the IMF, and that, in the event the IMF pushes for formal debt restructuring, Ghana could potentially receive a 'fresh start' with diminished debt overhang and the 'fiscal anchor' of an IMF programme.

 Yet, Ghana is yet to submit a formal letter of intent for a funded programme, both staff-level and IMF executive board-level approvals will be required, and that process could take much of the rest of this year.

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1/2 Kenya's elections remain amongst the most expensive globally. But how expensive is it? @MwangoCapital
Africa


1/2  Kenya's elections remain amongst the most expensive globally. But how expensive is it? @MwangoCapital

There are a total of over 22M registered voters and an allocated budget of over KES 44.6B ($375M). 
Here is how much Kenya spends per voter compared to other countries:

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The summary results of the Treasury Bills auction held on 21 July 2022. @CBKKenya
Kenyan Bills & Bonds - Short Term


The summary results of the Treasury Bills auction held on 21 July 2022.  @CBKKenya

Conclusions

Money is concentrating in the very short End. 

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Two weeks ago, the Treasury raised just Sh6.4 billion out of a target of Sh20 billion from a tap sale of the 18-year infrastructure bond it first floated in June, despite the paper carrying a tax-free coupon of 13.74 percent. @BD_Africa
Kenyan Bonds - Long Term



Two weeks ago, the Treasury raised just Sh6.4 billion out of a target of Sh20 billion from a tap sale of the 18-year infrastructure bond it first floated in June, despite the paper carrying a tax-free coupon of 13.74 percent. @BD_Africa


“The CBK will come under pressure to accept more aggressive bids for long-term debt to encourage subscription or risk an under subscription in subsequent auctions,” said Sterling Capital in a note on the bond tap sale

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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