home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 29th of July 2022
 
Morning
Africa

Register and it's all Free.

read more




Jul 24 “Is it safe?”
World Of Finance


Marathon Man - Dustin Hoffman “Is it Safe” - Laurence Olivier as Dr. Christian Szell @carlquintanilla via @Sergiofordy



In the movie Marathon Man [directed by John Schlesinger] Laurence Olivier who plays Dr. Christian Szell a Nazi war criminal straps Dustin Hoffman into a dentist's chair and without any anaesthetic starts drilling into Hoffman's mouth

“Is it safe?”

“Yes, it’s safe. Very safe. So safe you wouldn’t believe it.”
[long pause]
“Is it safe?”
“No. It’s not safe. It’s very dangerous. Be careful.”
That Snippet from that Film seems to me the perfect accompaniment preferably on an eternal loop to the World and the markets we find ourselves in today.
At the end of last week we saw a chink in the ''whatever it takes'' [to bring inflation down] Narrative. 

When I was a lot younger we used to play a Game called ''Red Eye'' Everyone gets a card and everyone else's card is visible to you except your own. And you bet on that basis. 

The Question is whether if this were a Game of Red Eye and the market has now seen that Powell and Lagarde are holding the 2 of spades and that this hiking cycle is near done. 

If that is the case, the Yen is a screaming Buy and the Dollar a Big Sell.
I do not expect Inflation to crash, however, which is a Caveat Emptor to this thesis and therefore the risk of Weimarisation is material.


read more



"Nimble" "Data dependent" "Meeting by meeting" "No clear guidance going forwards" . Suggesting we are at neutral for current conditions. @RaoulGMI
World Of Finance



"Nimble" "Data dependent" "Meeting by meeting" "No clear guidance going forwards" . Suggesting we are at neutral for current conditions. @RaoulGMI


Next up, let's see how they deal with growth collapse in next 4 weeks.

read more










Sunday, April 10, 2022 The moment we find ourselves is in is one of extreme stress and complexity.
Law & Politics

Sunday, April 10, 2022 The moment we find ourselves is in is one of extreme stress and complexity. 
The Geopolitical fault line is most visible in Ukraine and therefore at the European periphery, however, fault lines are emerging all over the global landscape and exhibiting multiple feedback loops, which feedback loops all have viral and exponential characteristics.
 

read more


His commitment to the operation strikes me as total. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse
Misc.


His commitment to the operation strikes me as total. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse



The military failure around Kyiv in April is no deterrent. 

He will persist with his military assault for as long as he believes he can absorb another inch of Ukraine into Russia. 

He has strong domestic public support for his quest given total state control of the media. And the military leadership and FBS are on his side, for now.
This means there will be no stable solution to the conflict so long as he remains in the Kremlin. 

The most likely near-term outcome is a fragile armistice around current lines of control – a frozen conflict, akin to that on the Korean peninsula.
This means most allied sanctions will remain in place, and the process of economic disentanglement between Russia and Europe will continue apace.
Globally, however, it means the emergence of a great divide.

read more



Jul 3 It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here.
Law & Politics



Jul 3 It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here.


It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here. 

As mentioned before, I see Russia moving eventually towards Odesa, landlocking Ukraine and only then coming to the Table.


read more


The competition between China and the US is structural and zero sum – each believes the other is out to weaken its position. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse
Law & Politics


The competition between China and the US is structural and zero sum – each believes the other is out to weaken its position. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse


Xi’s personalised style of leadership increases the likelihood of miscalculations around foreign policy. 

The potential cost of these miscalculations rises with the ongoing Chinese military build-up, from naval forces to new nuclear and hypersonic weapons. 

Taiwan is the most obvious potential flashpoint.

read more


The Dark Forest which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus
Law & Politics

The Dark Forest which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus


First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” 
Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” 
Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. 
In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... 
The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. 
If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — 
There’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. 
In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.
This is intergalactic Darwinism.

read more



Nancy Pelosi has pronounced She is going further East all the way to Taiwan because real Men and Women go to China
Law & Politics


Nancy Pelosi has pronounced She is going further East all the way to Taiwan because real Men and Women go to China 


and meanwhile Xi has salami sliced his way and snaffled up Hong Kong and Nancy could provide him with the perfect excuse for a Taiwan casus Belli.

read more


aiwan sovereignty and 2) to preempt a massive rearmament of Taiwan. That's the stuff of August 1914. @davidpgoldman
Law & Politics


Just why would China invade Taiwan  If 1) the West pushes for Taiwan sovereignty and 2) to preempt a massive rearmament of Taiwan. That's the stuff of August 1914. @davidpgoldman

Just why would China invade Taiwan and trigger sanctions, economic isolation, a global depression and maybe a world war? If 1) the West pushes for Taiwan sovereignty and 2) to preempt a massive rearmament of Taiwan. That's the stuff of August 1914.

read more


Norman A. Bailey, notes that China doesn't have to invade Taiwan, just blockade it. Taiwan is not a sovereign state so a blockade would not violate international law. Taiwan would collapse in weeks. @davidpgoldman
Law & Politics


Norman A. Bailey, notes that China doesn't have to invade Taiwan, just blockade it. Taiwan is not a sovereign state so a blockade would not violate international law. Taiwan would collapse in weeks. @davidpgoldman

Norman A. Bailey, my mentor at the Reagan NSC, notes that China doesn't have to invade Taiwan, just blockade it. Taiwan is not a sovereign state so a blockade would not violate international law. Taiwan would collapse in weeks.

read more






Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now compounding this division by driving Russia and China closer together. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse
Law & Politics


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now compounding this division by driving Russia and China closer together. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse

In their joint statement on 4 February ahead of the Winter Olympics, Presidents Putin and Xi said that “the friendship between the two States has no limits” and that, “there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation”, laying out a list that included technology, counterterrorism, arms control, and AI security.

Beijing relies now on Russia as a counterweight to US pressure. A defeated or weakened Russia would mean a strategically weaker China.

read more




Power to the neo-non-aligned @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse
Law & Politics


Power to the neo-non-aligned @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse
But these divisions are far from encapsulating today’s world. Only 39 countries are imposing sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. 

For their part, Russia and China can only count for political support on the usual global outlaws of Eritrea, Iran, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Venezuela.
The fact is that the largest group of countries in the world today lie outside these two divided groups. They are the neo-non-aligned.

read more


America’s and Europe’s global credibility and soft power have been damaged by their past hypocrisy and double standards. It could get worse. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse
Law & Politics


America’s and Europe’s global credibility and soft power have been damaged by their past hypocrisy and double standards. It could get worse. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse



Moreover, they believe the US picks and chooses which bits of international law it adheres to. 

Americans circumvented the UN to invade Iraq in 2003 as they did to bomb Serbia in 1999 in support of Kosovo. 

They ignored calls to protect Syrian civilians from Assad’s atrocities. 

More recently, at least a third of the 9,000 Iraqi civilians killed in the recapture of Mosul from ISIS were killed by Iraqi and coalition forces. 

America demands that China obey the independent tribunal on its occupation of islands in the South China Sea, but the US Senate has refused to ratify the UN convention on which the judgment was based.
America’s and Europe’s global credibility and soft power have been damaged by their past hypocrisy and double standards. It could get worse.

read more


For a while regime change was de rigeur
Law & Politics


For a while regime change was de rigeur 
Muammar Gaddafi was decapitated and the domino effect only stopped when Vladimir Putin decided he was going to put a stop to it and intervened on behalf of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.

read more


The neo-non-aligned can now triangulate between the world’s democratic and authoritarian poles. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse
Law & Politics


The neo-non-aligned can now triangulate between the world’s democratic and authoritarian poles. @RobinNiblett @ChathamHouse



The strategic competition between China and Russia, on the one hand, and the US and its allies, on the other, has empowered these countries as never before. The neo-non-aligned can now triangulate between the world’s democratic and authoritarian poles.

read more






Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent
Law & Politics


Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

“Now is the winter of our discontent” is the opening of a speech by William Shakespeare from Richard III.

It was also used to describe the profound industrial unrest that took place in 1978—9 in the United Kingdom.
Prime Minister Callaghan was asked by a reporter
"What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?" and replied:
Well, that's a judgment that you are making. I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.
The next day's edition of The Sun headlined its story "Crisis? What crisis?"

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ


Euro 1.024875
Dollar Index 105.57
Japan Yen 132.5795
Swiss Franc 0.95108
Pound 1.221875
Aussie 0.702565 
India Rupee 79.41575 
South Korea Won 1299.250 
Brazil Real 5.1841874 
Egypt Pound 18.918400 
South Africa Rand 16.420500

read more









Rising food and energy prices cause widespread hardship, famine, and unrest. @IMFNews @pogourinchas #WEO
Food, Climate & Agriculture


Rising food and energy prices cause widespread hardship, famine, and unrest. @IMFNews @pogourinchas #WEO 

Rising food and energy prices cause widespread hardship, famine, and unrest. 

Because energy and food are essential goods with few substitutes, higher prices are particularly painful for households. 

When the price of other items, such as electronics, furniture, or entertainment, increases, families can simply reduce or even eliminate spending on them. 

For food, heating, and transportation––often essential to earn a living––this is much harder. 

As a result, the current situation poses a threat not only to economic, but also to social, stability. 

Unrest has been rising since the end of the acute phase of the pandemic, consistent with IMF research that suggests that unrest is lower in during pandemics and that higher food and energy prices are robust predictors of unrest.

Although unrest will not necessarily ensue, the link between prices and social stability means that further barriers to trade, or a poor harvest due to extreme heat and fertilizer shortages, risk causing further hardship, famine, or unrest. 

These risks could be allayed by easing logistic hurdles brought about by the invasion of Ukraine, including the Black Sea blockade.

read more





The market price of everything we eat is falling: @SriniSivabalan
Commodities


 The market price of everything we eat is falling: @SriniSivabalan

Wheat -38%
Rice -4%
Corn -27%
Soybeans -13%
Live cattle -3% 
Coffee -17%
Sugar -14%

read more








Washington in summit race with Moscow @Africa_Conf
Africa


Washington in summit race with Moscow  @Africa_Conf

President Biden organises his African leaders' meeting for mid-December while President Putin delays his grand conference until mid-2023

As geopolitical tensions rise, the tally of Africa summits is mounting – with grand conferences with the continent's leaders being organised this year by the European Union, Britain, Turkey, India, Japan and now the United States. China and Russia host their Africa summits next year.

read more


Is Russia Winning the Battle for African Support? @washingtonpost @opinion @ClaraDFMarques
Africa


Is Russia Winning the Battle for African Support? @washingtonpost @opinion @ClaraDFMarques 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s charm offensive in Africa this week, part of efforts to rally support in the face of growing isolation, has prompted fresh Western hand-wringing. 

Is Moscow gaining ground in the emerging world? Why can’t African nations see that Russia is waging a war of conquest? 

On the other side, predictably, it fed propaganda bombast. “Russia is winning the fight for Africa,” one state television presenter told viewers. “The tour has turned out to be a triumphal march.”
Since its invasion of Ukraine in February, there’s no question that Russia has found more friendly, or outwardly neutral, partners in the Global South than the West would like. 

Kenya gave a rousing speech at the Security Council laying out the dangerous implications of Russian irredentism, but when the 193-member General Assembly voted on a resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine, 35 countries — roughly half from Africa, including South Africa and Senegal — abstained. 

Others, like Ethiopia and Morocco didn’t vote at all.
Soviet-era, anti-colonial ties work to Moscow’s advantage here, along with a widespread distrust of the West, nurtured by expanding Russian disinformation campaigns framing the war as the rich world against the rest. 

No less crucially, there are defense and security links — what the Kremlin lacks in investment capacity (and it doesn’t come near China’s billions for infrastructure) it makes up for in weapons sales and private military contractors, no awkward questions asked. 

Russia is also a key exporter of grain and fertilizer to a vulnerable region badly in need of both. 

Nations like Egypt, the first stop on Lavrov’s tour, need little reminding of the dangers of soaring food inflation.
Still, his destinations — Egypt, Uganda, Republic of Congo and Ethiopia — say a lot about the limits of the Kremlin’s endeavor. 

Russia’s constrained means (and Africa’s patchwork of political systems) force it to take a selective approach. 

There are no flashy cash promises from a nation struggling to expand its own sanctioned economy, and while Egypt is a significant trade partner — there’s a reason its leader made a virtual appearance at President Vladimir Putin’s Davos-lite gathering in June — others are less so. 

None of the stops feature high up in democratic rankings either, so it’s been less a triumph than a round of autocratic nations happy to get a boost from a like-minded government.
The trouble is that’s been enough. Too few African nations have seen the benefit of getting off the fence, and that’s as much about nonaligned traditions and Russia’s historic might as it is about Western disengagement. 

It’s not that Europe and the United States are absent — French President Emmanuel Macron has just completed a tour of Cameroon, Benin and Guinea-Bissau — but they have proven easily distracted by other demands. 

They tend to portray Africa as a geopolitical battleground, and their investment priorities do not always align with the continent’s own.

After a diplomatic retreat during the Trump years, US embassies remain understaffed, and a US-Africa leaders summit announced last year (the second, after a first in 2014) has only just been scheduled for the end of 2022. 

Not to mention the blunder of attempting to portray the crisis in Ukraine as a war of values to a continent that has seen plenty of evidence of Western hypocrisy.
To help Africa and squeeze Russia, that must change.
It’s clear what Russia, in need of friends and trading partners, gets out of Africa. 

It’s a resource-rich region that Europe sees as its backyard, with often-weak governments that make it relatively inexpensive to advance Moscow’s interests (and those of close Kremlin associates benefitting from resource and security deals).
But what’s in it for the vast majority of Africans? Russia amounts to a sliver of foreign direct investment into Africa, less than 1% in 2020, and its stagnant economy is not going to thrive any time soon, as the Kremlin prioritizes Putin’s imperial delusions over growth. 

Import restrictions, Moscow’s removal from international payment systems, a lack of innovation and research make it an unlikely partner in anything other than resources, which have long accounted for the bulk of Russian greenfield investment into the continent, when Africa needs technology instead. 

Russia accounted for 44% of weapons sales to Africa in 2017-21, but even that will pull back as import restrictions bite, and Russia scrambles to resupply its own armed forces.
Allied governments, eager to sustain support for Ukraine as the war drags, should seize the moment. 

First, they must recognize today’s food-security concerns, particularly with generous financial and logistical support for nations dependent on food and fertilizer imports and generously support the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Import Financing Facility and other mechanisms. 
Europe and the United States must also recognize that compounding crises — climate, fuel, security, agriculture — demand long-term solutions that include a dramatic increase in renewable-energy generation, more sustainable fertilizer production and use, more resilient crops, plus improved infrastructure to limit the amount of food wasted. 

Private companies can and must be crowded in.
Then, there’s the need for long-term diplomatic engagement and communication. 

Staff embassies and invest in the sort of media and education partnerships that China has used to good effect. 

It isn’t enough to wring hands in Brussels and Washington when the head of the African Union makes misleading comments on Western sanctions and plays into Putin’s hunger games. By then, it’s far too late.

read more


From Russia with Love
Africa


From Russia with Love


“Our African agenda is positive and future-oriented. We do not ally with someone against someone else, and we strongly oppose any geopolitical games involving Africa.”

“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov back in November 2018.

Between 2006 and 2018 Russia’s trade with Africa increased by 335 per cent, more than both China’s and India’s according to the Espresso Economist.

In Moscow’s offer for Africa are mercenaries, military equipment, mining investments, nuclear power plants, and railway connections.

Andrew Korybko writes Moscow invaluably fills the much-needed niche of providing its partners there with “Democratic Security”, or in other words, the cost-effective and low-commitment capabilities needed to thwart colour revolutions and resolve unconventional Wars (collectively referred to as Hybrid War).
To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting in- cipient and ongoing color revolutions, just like its private military contractors (PMCs) have supposedly done the same when it comes to ending insurgencies.

read more











Ahead of 9 August presidential elections, Raila Odinga has eked out a narrow opinion poll lead over William Ruto but neither candidate would command a clear majority in parliament, These findings suggest scope for serial disputes, especially if the result
Africa

Ahead of 9 August presidential elections, Raila Odinga has eked out a narrow opinion poll lead over William Ruto but neither candidate would command a clear majority in parliament, These findings suggest scope for serial disputes, especially if the results are close.

read more


Debt shadow may hang over Kenya's next president @Reuters @Duncmiriri
Kenyan Economy


Debt shadow may hang over Kenya's next president @Reuters @Duncmiriri 


Debt levels have surged, however, to 9 trillion shillings, or 67% of GDP, from just 2 trillion, or 40% of GDP, when Kenyatta was elected.
"The increase in debt has been alarmingly fast," said Robert Shaw, an independent economic policy analyst based in Nairobi.
In 2018, the International Monetary Fund classified Kenya as at high risk of debt distress. That risk remains, the Fund's Kenya head of mission Mary Goodman told journalists last week.
The yield on Kenya's dollar Eurobond due 2024 hit a record high of 22% on July 15, as rising U.S. interest rates and the Ukraine war make riskier assets less attractive to investors.
But Julius Muia, principal secretary in the ministry of finance, said debt is sustainable below 70% of GDP, adding: "The concern about debt is very misplaced."
Tabitha Karanja, an opposition United Democratic Alliance candidate for the senate, said the government's focus on infrastructure had left many vulnerable people behind.
"You can't build roads for people who are hungry," she said.

Kenya's international bonds have lost 29% of their value this year, with only Ghana's faring worse in Africa.
Market turmoil forced Kenya to abandon a $1 billion bond sale last month. The government is examining alternative financing and spending cuts, Muia at the finance ministry said.
But the risk premium over U.S. Treasuries paid by Kenya's debt is now over the 1,000 basis points traditionally seen as a marker of distress.
Investor confidence could be shaken further by the election: two of the last three presidential polls were marred by violence, with 1,200 people killed in post-election clashes in 2007.
"It is very much unclear if the economy has the resilience to manage the coming quarters without crisis," said Matthew Vogel, a London-based fund manager at FIM Partners, which specializes in frontier markets.

read more


House prices rise at fastest rate in 11 years @BD_Africa
RealEstate, Housing & Construction


House prices rise at fastest rate in 11 years @BD_Africa 


Data by realtor HassConsult show the price of an average house within the city rose 10.5 percent in the year to June compared to a drop of 1.7 percent in the same period a year earlier.

"The net effect of property prices and rents jointly moving up is that the total property returns (capital gains and rental yields) are now up at 16.26 percent per annum. These returns are superior to other asset classes and safer hedges against inflation," said Ms Hassanali.

read more









 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
Login / Register
 

 
 
Forgot your password? Register Now
 
 
July 2022
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.