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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 16th of September 2022
 


"#Bitcoin, I call it a tumor. Real estate is another tumor," says @nntaleb @CNBC
World Of Finance


"#Bitcoin, I call it a tumor. Real estate is another tumor," says @nntaleb @CNBC

"People have this notion that markets should behave the way they think they should behave. When you look at markets they swing from overvalue to undervalue."

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"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, "This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon." #Bitcoin
World Currencies


"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, "This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon." #Bitcoin


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27 NOV 17 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!". #Bitcoin
World Currencies




27 NOV 17 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!".  #Bitcoin


T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men 

Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom.


There are many cryptocurrency schemes which are sold on the same grounds as the greatest South Sea Bubble prospectus: 

“For carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.”
Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”



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Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL #Bitcoin
World Currencies


Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL #Bitcoin


“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on. #Bitcoin
World Currencies



GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on. #Bitcoin 



"I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding."
"WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued.
"It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell."
He then confessed he'd had some whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y.  [HODL Definition | Investopedia]


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What’s behind the sharp drop in Bitcoin’s value? $BTC #Bitcoin @AJInsideStory
World Currencies


What’s behind the sharp drop in Bitcoin’s value? $BTC #Bitcoin @AJInsideStory 
Presenter: Sami Zeidan
Guests
Aly-Khan Satchu – Investor and CEO at Rich Management
Naeem Aslam – Chief market analyst at AvaTrade
Brian Lucey – Professor of international finance and commodities at Trinity Business School

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"I think that we've had 15 years of Disneyland that basically has destroyed the economic structure," says @nntaleb @SquawkCNBC
World Currencies


"I think that we've had 15 years of Disneyland that basically has destroyed the economic structure," says  @nntaleb @SquawkCNBC



"You are hurting the economy.. creating tumors like #bitcoin. There was at some point such a thing as a discount rate. All these notions escape the new generation."

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’Voodoo Economics’’ a Wizard of Oz moment
World Of Finance

’Voodoo Economics’’ a Wizard of Oz moment 



we have reached the point when the curtain was lifted in the Wizard of Oz and the Wizard revealed to be ‘’an ordinary conman from Omaha who has been using elaborate magic tricks and props to make himself seem “great and powerful”’’ 


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Tyger Tyger burning bright, @MonaPatelT
Misc.

Tyger Tyger burning bright, @MonaPatelT

Tyger Tyger burning bright,
In the forests of the night.
What immortal hand or eye,
Dare frame thy fearful symmetry?……


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We took the world by courage and might, But we could not take it with us to the grave.
Misc.


We took the world by courage and might, But we could not take it with us to the grave.


I have heard that Jamshid, the magnificent,
Inscribed on a rock at a spring.
Many men like us have taken breath at this spring,
And have passed away in the twinkling of an eye;
We took the world by courage and might,
But we could not take it with us to the grave.

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The policymakers to follow are no longer central bankers, but heads of state at the pinnacle of power who aren’t known for the transparency of their thinking – especially not when at war. @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
Law & Politics

By extension, Russia and China have been the main “guarantors of macro peace”, providing all the cheap stuff that was the source of deflation fears in the West, which, in turn, gave central banks the license for years of money printing (QE).

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The War In Ukraine Isn’t Over By A Long Shot @19_forty_five
Law & Politics

The War In Ukraine Isn’t Over By A Long Shot @19_forty_five 


Last week, Ukraine caught the Russian military authorities entirely off guard when they launched a successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. 

The operation was successful even beyond Kyiv’s expectations, having driven Russian forces from nearly all the territory north of Kharkiv and liberating settlements as far east as Izyum.

While it is entirely appropriate for Ukraine and its supporters to celebrate this achievement, it is essential to understand this doesn’t signal the war is even close to over. 

The outcome is still very much undecided, and much fighting remains.

The preponderance of evidence suggests that Ukraine’s attack suffered major casualties and achieved limited if any, gains.

On August 14, about three weeks before the Kharkiv offensive began, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that “Russian forces are likely committing volunteer units … to the Izyum-Slovyansk line and are likely deprioritizing the axis in favor of defending positions in southern Ukraine.” 
Officials from the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) told ISW that Russian troops near Izyum had been “redeploying to the Southern Axis in an effort to defend occupied territories in western Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts.” 

Russian troops in the Kharkiv region had been sparse since April.

Russia then thinned its defenses even more in late August to deploy more troops to defend against the known offensive about to start near Kherson.
Zelensky took advantage of that move and likely intentionally deceived Russian intelligence into moving troops out of the Kharkiv region, believing there was no risk. 

As it turned out, that move was both good and bad for Ukraine. 

The additional Russian troops in Kherson appear to have helped Moscow’s forces inflict grievous casualties on the Ukrainian attackers in the Kherson region but fatally weakened Russian defenses in the Kharkiv region.
When the Ukrainian troops shocked the Russian defenders at the start of the Kharkiv offensive, the Russians began to surrender territory quickly. 

They not only had few troops left in the area, but those troops were mainly volunteers. 

Moscow began frantically sending reinforcements to try and stem the tide, but Ukraine advanced faster than Russia could get reinforcements in place. 

The Russian leadership was faced with a conundrum: order its troops to contest every meter of territory in an attempt to buy time for reinforcements to arrive, or evacuate the area and preserve its manpower for future fights.

They chose the latter. Russia not only surrendered Izyum without a fight but later evacuated nearly the whole of the territory they occupied north of Kharkiv all the way to the Russian border, up to 3,000 total square kilometers back under Ukrainian control. 

Many in the West are hailing this move as proving Ukraine is well on its way to winning the war and might even result in the downfall of Vladimir Putin

A little context might be helpful before making such sweeping judgments.

I’ll repeat, it is entirely understandable and appropriate for Ukraine and its many Western supporters to celebrate this unqualified success north of Kharkiv. 

But its also necessary to understand this is a war, not a battle. 

The loss of Izyum and territory north of Kharkiv doesn’t signal the end of Russia any more than the successive losses of Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk signaled Ukraine had lost the war. 

Those losses were major and costly for Ukraine, and this current victory by Kyiv is major and costly for Russia. But the war continues on.

Russia still has an advantage in artillery, rockets, and air power. They still have more tanks and armored personnel carriers. 

And Putin’s troops still have control of nearly one fifth of Ukrainian territory. 

Further, Ukraine has likely expended the majority of its striking power in these twin offensives, suffered many casualties, and will require considerable replenishment and replacements before being able to go much further
Zelensky appears to understand that the battle was important and meaningful, but not determinant. “The next 90 days,” he said, “will be more crucial than 30 years of Ukraine’s independence.” 

Support “for Ukraine in the war must be maintained,” he continued, specifying the continuing need for “weapons, ammunition, (and) finances.” 

As I’ve written in these pages recently, there are stiff headwinds coming for Europe this winter, as there will likely be significant challenges with energy, potential energy rationing, and the increasing potential for a recession

Whether the West will be able to continue supplying the types and volumes necessary to enable Ukraine to continue making offensive progress is uncertain. 

What’s even more uncertain: Putin’s next move.
One of the problems exuberant Westerners fail to consider is what Russia will do in response to this defeat in the Kharkiv region. 

It remains possible, though unlikely that Putin will continue without change and try to stick to his original plan of capturing the Donbas and not make any changes. 

For example, one possibility is that Putin will finally conclude that mobilizing his country for total wartime mobilization is necessary. 

Though such a move has significant risk for the Russian leader, launching a wartime mobilization also makes it possible that Russia could generate considerable new combat power later in 2023 and overwhelm Ukraine with sheer mass – something very much a part of Russia’s World War II heritage. 

Yet it is far from certain Putin will take that path.
One thing seems inevitable, however: Putin put his political life at grave risk to launch this war, and it seems unlikely in the extreme that he would stand passively by and allow his forces to be slowly squeezed out of Ukraine, imposing a major (and possibly fatal) defeat on him without making adjustments to try and regain the initiative. 

As Putin showed in his approach to the Chechen War, there is little he won’t do when he feels it is necessary to win on the battlefield.
It is, given the six-plus months of carnage imposed on Ukraine by the invading Russian army, entirely appropriate and reasonable to celebrate Ukraine’s big win north of Kharkiv. 

But this is war and I fear there will be much more death and destruction – and more successes and failures by each side – before this conflict finally comes to an end.

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Layer on top of this a highly managed media construct which is essentially a Claque where alternative voices are deplatformed & we have an environment which was accurately described thus by @FukuyamaFrancis
Law & Politics


Layer on top of this a highly managed media construct which is essentially a Claque where alternative voices are deplatformed & we have an environment which was accurately described thus by @FukuyamaFrancis


The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.
At a time when what is required is agile multi disciplinary thinking we have ''weaponized babble''

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May 29 Many commentators have been spinning an imminent Ukrainian military victory.
Law & Politics



May 29 Many commentators have been spinning an imminent Ukrainian military victory.


Mar 5, 2022 I try not to make too many predictions. I think given all the problems in the Russian campaign, delusional assumptions, an unworkable concept of operations, little prepared for a sustained war like this, I give it ~3 more weeks before this is an exhausted force. @KofmanMichael [9]

Mar 4, 2022 Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev says that #Russia has resources left for the war until Sunday, after which they will collapse.

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Sunday, April 10, 2022 Apocalypse Now
World Of Finance


Sunday, April 10, 2022 Apocalypse Now


Secretary Blinken has refused to meet Lavrov, Biden calls for ‘’Regime Change’’ on a daily basis and ‘’defensive’’ weapons are being shoveled into Ukraine at an unprecedented speed. 

There is clearly zero intention to resolve this matter anywhere other than on the battlefield and through an insurgency which will bleed Russia to death and the Ukrainians as well.

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A SYSTEM ON LIFE SUPPORT BY FABIO VIGHI
Law & Politics


A SYSTEM ON LIFE SUPPORT BY FABIO VIGHI


This attitude can be recognized in the well-known phenomenon of “celebrity eco-warriors”, a spin-off of “philanthropic capitalism”. 

Leonardo DiCaprio, for instance, regularly tweets about the collective fight against climate change (e.g., ‘If we don’t act together, we will surely perish!’), but does so from his 315ft, helicopter-decked, 110-million-dollar superyacht, which by travelling only a couple of miles pollutes as much as your average car does in a year – hardly “acting together.” 

Precisely as an actor, however, he should know better, for he started with Titanic and we all know how that film ended. 

In other words, the devious elitist attempt to co-opt the leftist spirit of engagement to a collective cause might, at some point during the system’s downfall, backfire – which is probably the only hope we have.

This is the Titanic



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Why Italy is on verge of electing its first far-right leader since second world war @guardian @lorenzo_tondo
Law & Politics


 Why Italy is on verge of electing its first far-right leader since second world war @guardian @lorenzo_tondo 


A hundred years after the rise of Italian fascism was heralded by Mussolini’s 1922 march on Rome, the country is on the verge of electing a party with its roots in neo-fascism.
With just over a week to go until polling day, the smiling face of Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, is emblazoned on thousands of posters from the heel in the south to the Alps in the north.

When polls close on the evening of 25 September, Meloni is expected to emerge triumphant, making her Italy’s first far-right leader since the second world war.
Meloni has always distanced herself from fascism and recently declared that the Italian right had “handed fascism over to history”. 

Her current political success owes much to her decision, unlike that of Matteo Salvini and his Northern League, to keep her party out of the outgoing prime minister, Mario Draghi’s, cross-party government. 

The move cemented her as an opposition voice and has given her the leading position in a rightwing electoral coalition, that includes the League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, now polling in excess of 45%.
But she has been reluctant in campaigning to shed the political slogan Dio, Patria, Famiglia (God, Homeland, Family), widely used in the fascist era, and her party retains apparent fascist visual references. 

It shares its party logo, an Italian tricolour in the form of a flame, with the now defunct Italian Social Movement (MSI), a neo-fascist party formed in 1946 by supporters of Mussolini’s regime and former high-ranking members of his fascist party. 

Some supporters of her party have performed the fascist salute during public commemorations.
How can it be that Italy, which lived through Mussolini’s bloody regime and passed discriminatory laws against its Jewish citizens, is close to electing as prime minister the leader of a party with these associations, 

who in a recently surfaced video from 1996 said of the fascist leader: “Mussolini was a good politician. There have been no other politicians like him in the last 50 years”?
Paolo Berizzi, of La Repubblica, has been asking such question for years. The journalist, who has written extensively about the extreme right in Italy, has received numerous threats from neo-fascist and neo-Nazi groups and now lives under police protection. 

“Italy is a country that never came to terms with its fascist past,” he said. “Fascists didn’t die in 1945; they’ve always been around.”
To find some answers, one must go back to the immediate aftermath of the second world war, when the first issue for Italy to address was national unity. 

The toppling of Mussolini in 1943 was followed by bloody civil war between a Nazi-backed puppet state and the partisans of the Italian resistance, so when peace came to Europe, fears of aggravating civil tensions overrode the purging of fascists from Italian institutions and prosecuting them for war crimes. 

While the Nuremberg trials against prominent members of the Nazi party began in Germany in November 1946, Italy, in part concerned about growing numbers of communists, on the brink of the cold war, had from June of that year run an amnesty programme, releasing thousands of fascists from prison.
Many took jobs in the postwar administrations: Ettore Messana, a fascist official whose name appears in a UN list for war crimes, was appointed inspector general for public safety in Sicily; Gen Michele Pichè, who carried out counter-espionage for Mussolini, was nominated director general of the Civil Protection Agency.
“After the war there were a lot of Italians who thought that, despite the conflict, Mussolini hadn’t done so badly after all,” said Salvatore Lupo, a professor of contemporary history at Palermo University.
Giorgio Almirante, a culture minister in the Nazis’ short-lived puppet state, founded the MSI with former members of the Italian Fascist party in this climate of tolerance. 

By 1948, three neo-fascists sat in the Italian parliament. It is from this heritage that the Brothers of Italy would later emerge.
The neo-fascist MSI, meanwhile, remained sidelined from mainstream politics until the early 1990s, when a nationwide judicial investigation into political corruption resulted in the disappearance of many traditional political parties and gave it an opportunity. 

Its members formed the National Alliance party in 1995, maintaining the tricolour flame as their symbol, and, presenting themselves as neoliberal conservatives, found in Berlusconi’s Forza Italia their first ally in national government.
It was Berlusconi who, during a political rally in 2019, boasted about having been the first to engage with neo-fascists. 

“The parties that governed Italy from the beginning of the First Republic had never allowed the fascists to enter the government”, he said. “We let them in for the first time. We legitimised them.”
Berizzi said: “It was in those years that the criminal revisionism of fascism, as I call it, began, fuelled by talkshows and many newspapers. Fake news began to circulate around fascism, which still today is presented as a regime that ‘did many great things’.”
Many Italians today are convinced that Mussolini introduced public housing in Italy, when in reality it had begun in 1903, nearly 20 years before his rule. 

The enduring cliche is that Mussolini made the trains run on time, but during the fascist period trains were chronically late. 

Unable to resolve the problem, the regime instead forbade people from discussing it, because to do so would be “dishonourable to the homeland”.
More than 70 years after Mussolini’s death, thousands of Italians started to join self-described fascist groups in a surge of support antifascists blame on the portrayal of the refugee crisis, and Italy’s economic and political instability. 

In this context, in 2012 Brothers of Italy was founded, largely from the ranks of MSI and National Alliance. 

Two years later, Meloni, previously an activist in the MSI’s Youth Front, rose to become its leader.
“Meloni became the leader of her party in a period in which fascism in Italy was almost normalised and getting popular among young people,” Berizzi said. 

“Statuettes of Mussolini and calendars of the Duce are on sale in kiosks and shops. The fascist salute […] has become an almost folkloric gesture.”
Antonio Scurati, the author of M, an international bestseller about Mussolini’s rise to power, said: 

“While in Germany there was a long process of overcoming the past, which had as a prerequisite that of making all German people reflect on the co-responsibility of the crimes of nazism, in Italy this process has never taken place. 

Whenever we speak about the war and racial laws in Italy, we always identify ourselves with the role of victim and anti-fascists, and this has prevented us from admitting to ourselves that we were fascists.”
Meloni has “unambiguously” condemned “the suppression of democracy and the ignominious anti-Jewish laws”, emphasising that her party has nothing to do with fascism and is a conservative champion of patriotism. 

She told Corriere della Sera after local elections there were no “nostalgic fascists, racists or antisemites in the Brothers of Italy DNA” and she had always got rid of “ambiguous people”.
“Let’s believe that Meloni is not a fascist. Let’s believe that technically her party is not neo-fascist,” Berizzi said. 

“You still can’t deny that in her ranks there are numerous fascists […] If Meloni wins the election, fascism may not be back, but our democracy will be at risk.”
Just as the far right is moving forward, some Italians have compared the current situation to a satire movie released in 2018, which imagines Mussolini returning to Italy and being acclaimed by people.
“If Mussolini were to return, Italians would re-elect him,” Scurati said. “In fact, Italians, Europeans, North Americans and Brazilians have already elected several ‘neo’ Mussolinis.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Euro 0.99952
Dollar Index 109.72
Japan Yen 143.2815 
Swiss Franc 0.96170
Pound 1.14635
Aussie 0.671915
India Rupee 79.82760
South Korea Won 1396.09
Brazil Real 5.2477
Egypt Pound 19.424800
South Africa Rand 17.578900 

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24 August 2022 : in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia... War and Industrial Policy @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
Minerals, Oil & Energy



: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia...

...that’s 100-times leverage more than Lehman’s.

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Despite a fresh IMF deal, #Pakistan #Rupee #pkr continue to weaken past 235 (ie. -25% YtD, bad news ST but good news LT) and Eurobond yields jump. @akcakmak
Emerging Markets

Sep 25 USD yield now back above 30%, a default-like pricing by the market vs 6-8% historical. Int'l funding hardly possible here.

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9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa

9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes


we were all popping Quaaludes [Quaaludes ‘’to promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These proper- ties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’].

Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit and the currency will collapse 

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Fixing your currency without adequate FX reserves and large external deficits is almost always a bad idea. @akcakmak
Africa


Fixing your currency without adequate FX reserves and large external deficits is almost always a bad idea. @akcakmak


However, the temporary relief helps policymakers score election wins.
Egypt, Pakistan, Kenya and Bangladesh among many which now suffer from long years of imbalances.

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#Mozambique 2023 bond no interest accrue 75, #China confirm EUR 20 million debt wipe. $1.7 billion total owe Maputo road-bridge construct, 15% public debt. Ist gas export load, big project Cabo Delgado postpone Islamic rebel resurge, @KleimanIntCon
Africa

#Mozambique 2023 bond no interest accrue 75, #China confirm EUR 20 million debt wipe. $1.7 billion total owe Maputo road-bridge construct, 15% public debt. Ist gas export load, big project Cabo Delgado postpone Islamic rebel resurge, EU military aid mobilize.

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Zambia's bondholders slam @IMFNews debt relief targets as 'arbitrary' @Reuters @rachelmsavage @marcjonesrtrs & @KarinStrohecker
Africa


Zambia's bondholders slam @IMFNews  debt relief targets as 'arbitrary' @Reuters @rachelmsavage  @marcjonesrtrs &  @KarinStrohecker 

Zambia's international bondholders have criticised the International Monetary Fund's debt restructuring framework as "arbitrary" and for excluding the country's domestic debt, sources involved in the process have told Reuters.
Zambia has been in default for almost two years and an IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis published last week called for its debt-service-to-exports ratio to be cut to a 140% "threshold" from 153% quickly and to 84% by 2027.
"Now, all of a sudden, they have an arbitrary 84% number," said Kevin Daly, head of emerging market debt at Abrdn, who chairs a committee of bondholders estimated to hold around 45% of Zambia's $3 billion worth of international market debt.
"How did you arrive at that number? It's such a different figure than the (140%) threshold," he told Reuters, calling on the IMF to meet with bondholders, who have complained of being left out of the loop as the IMF and bilateral creditors worked out a plan.
An IMF spokesperson said it would brief Zambia's creditors on economic forecasts and policies and denied the 84% debt-to-exports ratio target was "arbitrary".
"The target is firmly grounded in the IMF-WB Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries," they said in emailed comments. 

"It is consistent with a level of external debt-to-exports for country having space to absorb shocks."
Zambia's much-delayed debt restructuring is seen by analysts as a test case for what are expected to be a spate of defaults in poorer countries that have borrowed heavily not only in the capital markets but also from countries including China.
David Malpass, president of the World Bank, the IMF's sister organisation, said last week that "a deep debt reduction of 45% in net present value (NPV) terms... is essential."
Relief of that magnitude "would not be acceptable (to) creditors", including Chinese lenders, Daly said.
He declined to say what other bondholders would agree to, but said that from his perspective, "If it was something more in the... 20-30% range, I think that would be acceptable."
A bond recovery value of $65 to $75, with an exit yield of 11-12% was "realistic"," he said.
Bondholders are also unhappy that $11.6 billion of local currency debt, $3.2 billion of which is owned by foreign investors, is being excluded from the restructuring, a second source involved in the process said.
The person, who is familiar with the committee's position but spoke on the condition of anonymity, said it implied that such debt would effectively then have precedence over the Eurobonds, which are governed by international laws.
He also questioned whether it would be right to include local currency debt not subject to restructuring in the debt targets, as it "squeezes the amount of debt service that's available to service external debt." 

Still, he said, bondholders were "mindful" that restructuring local debt could cause issues in Zambia's banking sector.
It was "the authorities' intention to exclude these bonds from the restructuring," the IMF spokesperson said.

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Maputo Boom Town The Star
Africa


Maputo Boom Town The Star
Greetings from the Serena Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. 

The Architecture is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was built in 1922 and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky. 

It is less than 4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the most of in things and places to visit.

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The last admin of 10 years has not been running a free market economy. FX rate was described by IMF as 'managed float', fuel & food prices were not at market price. All these was done to mask the mismanagement of the economy! @WehliyeMohamed
Kenyan Economy


The last admin of 10 years has not been running a free market economy. FX rate was described by IMF as 'managed float', fuel & food prices were not at market price. All these was done to mask the mismanagement of the economy! @WehliyeMohamed


The last admin of 10 years has not been running a free market economy. There was an attempt to control interest rates. FX rate was described by IMF as 'managed float', fuel & food prices were not at market price. All these was done to mask the mismanagement of the economy!

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The new boys in town have 2 options.
Kenyan Economy



The new boys in town have 2 options. 1. Continue with the same path by masking underlying problems & end in ECONOMIC fall. 2. Let mkt forces rule & cause a correction that will be painful, messy, noisy with lots of casualties & end in a POLITICAL fall. Between a rock & hard place

Conclusions

I am not as pessimistic as @WehliyeMohamed I think its complicated but Kenya has a lot of goodwill it can call on and politically speaking its best to kitchen sink it now let the Shilling find its value come clean on the debt etc etc 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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