Par Value: 1/-
Closing Price: 15.50
Total Shares Issued: 182174108.00
Market Capitalization: 2,823,698,674
EPS: -6.32
PE: -2.453
TPS manages 15 hotels and resorts across East Africa under the Serena brand name.
TPS Serena reports H1 2021 Earnings versus H1 2020 Earnings
HY Revenue from contracts with Customers 1.073551b versus 1.105714b
HY Loss before Exchange difference interest depreciation results of associates and Taxation [254.832m] versus [326.347m]
HY Exchange gain [loss] on foreign currency loans 60.251m versus [149.459m]
HY Net Interest Cost [137.881m] versus [106.728m]
HY Depreciation [332.395m] versus [243.975m]
HY Share of results of associates [27.380m] versus [39.489m]
HY Loss before Income Tax [692.237m] versus [865.998m]
HY Income Tax credit 134.961m versus 225.018m
HY Loss after taxation [557.276m] versus [640.980m]
HY EPS [2.96] versus [3.33]
HY Total Comprehensive Loss [700.791m] versus [547.844m]
HY Cash and Cash Equivalents [404.329m] versus [358.583m]
Commentary
Devastating impact of COVID 19 pandemic on global tourism carried on into first half of year 2021
Given the pent up demand in regional and international Travel outlook for second half of year remains cautiously optimistic
Conclusions
Given the pent up demand in regional and international Travel outlook for second half of year remains cautiously optimistic
There is always an H2 Skew
I am not as confident that a Tourism rebound is at hand yet
TPS reports FY Earnings through 31st December 2020 versus through 31st Dec 2019
FY Revenue 2.034160b versus 6.823159b -70.18%
FY [loss] Profit before depreciation Finance Income / [costs] results of associates and Income Tax credit / [expense] [437.785m] versus 1.017126b
FY Finance Costs [586.137m] versus [177.835m]
FY Depreciation on right of use Asset [43.919m] versus [40.906m]
FY Depreciation on property and equipment [496.064m] versus [447.422m]
FY Share of loss of Associates [95.004m] versus [29.013m]
FY [loss] Profit before income Tax [1.658909b] versus 321.950m
FY Income Tax credit / [expense] 448.902m versus [140.203m]
FY [loss] / Profit for the Year [1.210007b] versus 181.747m
FY EPS [6.32] versus 0.81
Finance Costs include unrealised exchange Loss on Foreign Currency loans of 313m versus an unrealised exchange gain of 32m in the prior year
FY Total comprehensive [Loss] / income for the year [939.921m] 127.426m
No Dividend
Borrowings 4.963551b versus 3.587202b
FY Cash and Cash Equivalents 122.711m versus 147.569m
FY Decrease in cas and cash equivalents [228.305m] versus [29.625m]
Commentary
The year 2020 has been one of the most difficult years that the global hospitality industry has ever experienced
the magnitude of the COVID 19 was not foreseen and has resulted in a devastating impact due to the uncertainty in its evolving nature
temporary closure of Serena properties from April to June 2020
Bookings have been at very short lead times and rates are well below market norms as supply of rooms available exceeds demand
Serenas regional footprint and brand was established in DR Congo trough award of a management contract in year 2018 that resulted in the opening of Goma Serena Hotel
Group through the vital support from its senior lenders managed to defer debt repayments whilst entering into additional credit facilities in order to support operations under exceptionally difficult circumstances
We should expect a turnaround in our performance perhaps from the 3rd or 4th quarter of the year 2021
Conclusions
Serena in fact was at the bleeding Age of the Pandemic.
Its a solid franchise and I expect a recovery from Q4 2021 and therefore its going to be back to back tough years.
HY Revenues 2.704836b vs. 2.684910b +0.742%
HY Profit before exchange difference, interest, depreciation, results of associates and taxation 124.170m vs. 0.833m +14,806.363%
HY Exchange profit/ [loss] on foreign currency loans [18.358m] vs. 25.125m -173.067%
HY Net interest cost [84.905m] vs. [61.385m] +38.316%
HY Depreciation, on property, plant and equipment [233.976m] vs. [194.763m] +20.134%
HY Loss before income tax [215.312m] vs. [231.413m] -6.958%
HY Loss after taxation [160.687m] vs. [168.610m] +4.699%
Loss per share [0.97] vs. [1.12] +13.393%
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period [346.668m] vs. [239.306m] -44.864%
Company Commentary
During the first half of the year 2019, market sentiment has continued to indicate a consistent return of confidence from the foreign leisure market segment to Kenya and in deed across the wider East African region.
The Companys (TPS Eastern Africa PLC/the Group) diversified portfolio in East Africa recorded growth in the corporate and domestic leisure segments, particularly during the second quarter of 2019, once insecurity issues in Kenya receded.
Given the seasonal nature of the tourism industry in East Africa, financial performance for the first half of 2019 should not be taken as a basis for extrapolating a full years forecast.
For the six months to 30 June 2019, TPS Eastern Africa PLC recorded a Profit before exchange difference, interest, depreciation, results of associates and taxation of KShs. 124.2 million as compared to KShs. 0.8 million for the same period last year.
For the period under review, the Group continued to effectively manage its business strategy, including controlling operating costs in increasingly challenging markets. Foreign exchange loans coupled with adverse foreign exchange rates, resulted in exchange losses on debt, as well as relatively higher net interest charges, over the same period last year.
Depreciation increased due to the capitalisation of phase one of the Nairobi Serena redevelopment project.
The final phase of the redevelopment of Nairobi Serena Hotel (NSH) is substantially completed and expected to deliver once again incremental revenue going forward.
In line with the Boards vision to reposition the Serena City Hotels brand, NSHs progress to full completion by Q4 2019 bodes well for future market share growth, similar to the encouraging strategic business developments achieved through 2017 at the refurbished Kampala Serena Hotel and the Dar es Salaam Serena Hotel.
The Group will continue to successfully progress the planned refurbishment of its property portfolio, maintain appropriate Human Resource Management practices and promote sound Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programs that complement its long term business strategy. Serena Hotels CSR programs remain fully aligned to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out by the United Nations Development Programme. Indeed, our sustainable business practices continue not only to complement, but indeed to enhance eco tourism, environmental conservation, reafforestation, education, public health; and essentially community development across Eastern Africa.
Important feedback from our suppliers of business in traditional and new international source markets, has been encouraging with increasing interest in selling destination East Africa.
This backdrop will provide the impetus to optimize portfolio performance in 2019 to the extent possible. Consequently, current forecasts indicate a satisfactory outlook during the second half of 2019 for Serena Kenya, Serena Tanzania and Serena Uganda.
The Board and Management express their appreciation to the governments of the East African Region for facilitating the continuous resource allocation required to improve the business environment for destination East Africa.
In line with the Companys policy, the Board of Directors does not recommend the declaration of an interim dividend.
Conclusions
They always exhibit an H2 Skew.
Nairobi Serena should bounce H2 and earnings going forward.
Its a valuable but undervalued Franchise.
TPS Eastern Africa FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs. 31st December 2017
FY Revenues 6.593411b vs. 6.408206b +2.890%
FY Profit before exchange difference, interest, depreciation, results of associates and taxation 795.111m vs. 831.525m -4.379%
FY Finance income 7.101m vs. 14.425m -50.773%
FY Finance costs [126.517m] vs. [149.347m] -15.287%
FY Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [408.248m] vs. [406.496m] +0.431%
FY Share of results of associates [23.998m] vs. [29.360m] -18.263%
FY Profit before income tax 243.449m vs. 260.747m -6.634%
FY Income tax credit [64.444m] vs. [141.282m] -54.386%
FY Profit after taxation 179.005m vs. 119.465m +49.839%
FY Profit for the year attributable to equity holders of the company 125.710m vs. 65.209m +92.780%
FY Profit for the year attributable to non-controlling interests 53.295m vs. 54.256m -1.771%
EPS 0.69 vs. 0.36 +91.667%
Total Equity 9.137574m vs. 9.164617b -0.295%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [180.563m] vs. 611.779m -129.514%
Final dividend 0.35 vs. 0.35
Commentary
Following the stabilisation of Kenyas political environment in the second quarter 2018, market sentiment continues to indicate a consistent return of confidence in the tourism sector.
Indeed, this optimism has been prevalent beyond Kenya and extended across the East African region.
The Companys diversified portfolio in East Africa recorded satisfactory growth in both corporate and domestic leisure segments during the year under review.
To complement this, post July 2018, reassuring business levels from the foreign leisure market segment were experienced across the East African Serena Safari Circuits in Kenya, Tanzania and Zanzibar.
The first phase of the redevelopment of Nairobi Serena Hotel was successfully completed in August 2018, leading to improved performance in the fourth quarter 2018.
Completion of the new bedrooms (half room inventory), ballroom, meeting rooms, and public areas generated incremental revenues.
Similarly, the 2017 refurbished facilities at Kampala Serena Hotel and Dar es Salaam Serena Hotel contributed positively during the year 2018.
Early indications from these strategic business developments are encouraging and validate the Board's vision to reposition the Serena City Hotel brand in Nairobi, Kampala and Dar es Salaam.
This progress bodes well for future market share growth in our City Hotels.
Furthermore, our brand footprint continues to strengthen with two key developments in our managed properties, namely the successful completion of the international 18 hole Golf Course, at Lake Victoria Serena Golf Resort Spa and the advanced opening plan for Goma Serena Hotel, scheduled for opening in the third quarter 2019.
The Company continues to operate in a generally subdued global economic and business climate primarily caused by over supply of hotels and lodges in competitive locations, abrupt changes in laws and regulations adversely impacting an enabling business environment, security alerts, unexpected increases in energy and other related operating costs and material forex currency fluctuations.
The last few years have provided a real test for companies operating in the East African Tourism industry, so we are pleased to note that despite such turbulence, the Company has continued to demonstrate its Built to Last capability through implementation of its successful business model and the spirit and service motto of its employees of living up to the promise.
Notwithstanding the challenging business landscape, financial performance from our business strategy was encouraging. During the year under review, TPS Eastern Africa PLC (TPSEAP) achieved a turnover of KShs. 6.59 billion (2017 KShs. 6.41 billion), and a profit after tax of KShs 179.01 million, up by 49.8% (2017 KShs. 119.47 million).
Given that Nairobi Serena Hotel was undergoing its redevelopment program (operating at 46% of its room inventory) with significantly reduced meeting space, the Companys performance for the year 2018 is satisfactory.
Looking ahead, with full room inventory in place, future projections remain reassuring particulalrly once the final phase of Nairobi Serena Hotels redevelopment is completed in June 2019.
The Company and its subsidiaries contributed significantly to the revenues of the governments of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda in 2018.
During the year 2018, the Group paid in aggregate, the equivalent of KShs. 1.564 billion (2017 KShs. 1.481 billion) in direct and indirect taxes and equivalent of KShs. 438 million (2017 KShs. 353 million) in royalties and rents to the revenues of counties and local authorities in its various East African jurisdictions.
The Group will progress planned refurbishment of its other properties, continue to maintain appropriate Human Resource Management practices, and promote sound Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programs that complement its long term business strategy. The CSR programs remain fully aligned to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out by the United Nations Development Programme. Our sustainable business practices continue to compliment eco tourism, environmental conservation, reforestation, education, public health and essentially community development across Eastern Africa.
Market indications from Serenas suppliers of business impacting Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are encouraging, with foreign leisure bookings projected to continue on a growth trajectory; whilst the diversified revenue streams from the wider Serena portfolio is similarly favourable for 2019. The Group continues to effectively risk manage its business strategy and thereby maintain the focus on mitigating risks and capitalise on its brand strength to optimize portfolio performance in 2019, to the extent possible.
The Board and Management express their appreciation to the governments within the East African Region for facilitating the continuous resource allocation required to improve the business environment for destination East Africa.
Conclusions
Its a really solid Franchise and they seem to finally be seeing a more sunlit horizon
The FY Result was assisted by a substantially lower Tax Charge, however.
They will now properly ride the Tourism Tail Wind now that they have Nairobi fully turned on.
6 month results through 30th June 2018 versus 30th June 2017
H1 2018 Sales 2.684910b versus 2.621823b +2.406%
H1 Profit exchange difference, interest, depreciation, results of Associates and taxation 833.00 versus 86.319m
H1 2018 Loss before income tax [231.413m] versus [230.786m]
H1 2018 Loss after Taxation [168.61m] versus [188.796m]
H1 2018 EPS [1.12] versus [1.09] -2.75%
H1 Decrease in cash and cash equivalents [824.187m] versus [666.273m]
Company Commentary
There is increased interest in selling destination East Africa.
The first Phase of the redevelopment of Nairobi Serena will be handed over in August 2018
Given the seasonal nature of the tourism industry in East Africa the results for the first half should not be taken as a basis for forecasting a Full Years result.
The results for the period have been impacted by lower than expected sales from the foreign leisure tourism arrivals in Kenya during Q1
No interim dividend
Conclusions
There is a material H2 Earnings skew.
I expected a stronger H1 but evidently Q2 strengthened versus Q1
TPS Eastern Africa FY 2017 results through 31st December 2017 vs. 31st December 2016
FY Revenues 6.408206b vs. 6.468803b -0.937%
FY Earnings before exchange loss, interest, depreciation, results of associates and taxation 831.525m vs. 973.487m -14.583%
FY Exchange gain on foreign currency loans 3.039m vs. 51.558m -94.106%
FY Net interest expense [137.961m] vs. [172.669m] -20.101%
FY Depreciation and amortisation [406.496m] vs. [538.333m] -24.490%
FY Profit before income tax 260.747m vs. 315.148m -17.262%
FY Profit for the year 119.465m vs. 119.175m +0.243%
FY Profit for the year attributable to equity holders of the company 65.209m vs. 88.150m -26.025%
Basic and diluted EPS 0.36 vs. 0.48 -25.000%
Total Equity 9.164617b vs. 9.367517b -2.166%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 611.779m vs. 1.425891b -57.095%
Final dividend 0.35 vs. 0.35
Commentary
2017 Group successfully traversed through a challenging business landscape for the tourism industry in East Africa mainly caused by the ripple effect of the political uncertainty in Kenya.
despite the increasing competition arising from new market entrants most Serena City hotels performed well.
Serena safari circuit in Kenya and Tanzania were healthier tan the corresponding periods in the past 2 years.
foreign tourism for destination Kenya in particular is expected to be more promising than year 2017
support from domestic and regional markets is expected to continue at encouraging levels during 2018
Nairobi Serena operating at 46% of its room inventory
Conclusions
I expect the Tourism rebound to gain more traction.
TPS is a value proposition notwithstanding its elevated PE
H1 Sales 2.621823b vs. 2.656219b -1.295%
H1 Profit before exchange loss, interest, depreciation and taxation 80.251m vs. 180.980m -55.658%
H1 Exchange loss on foreign currency loans [45.703m] vs. [10.569] -332.425%
H1 Net interest cost [70.752m] vs. [54.781m] -29.154%
H1 Depreciation on Property, plant and equipment [194.582m] vs. [189.786m] -2.527%
H1 Loss before income tax [230.786m] vs. [74.156m] -211.217%
H1 Loss after taxation [188.796m] vs. [57.627m] -227.617%
H1 Loss per share attributable to equity holders of the company [1.09] vs. [0.43] -153.488%
Equity 9.411265b vs. 9.571263b -1.672%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 771.248m vs. 12.647m
No interim dividend
Commentary
During the First half of 2017, the domestic and to some extent the foreign leisure tourism segment in East Africa witnessed a slow but encouraging growth in business levels compared to last year.
satisfactory growth in the corporate segment
current indications for the Kenyan Safari segment look much healthier particularly for Mara and Laikipia.
Kenya coastal region continues to record low materialisation from the foreign leisure market segment as a result of lack of charters and international scheduled flights into Mombasa from source markets
Nairobi Serena has been operating only with 46% of its room inventory ...upgrade program.
given the seasonal nature of the tourism industry in East Africa, the results for H1 2017 are not a basis for forecasting a FY result
Notwithstanding the challenging business environment, Management looks at H2 with much optimism and with our tested and highly successful business model
No interim Dividend
Conclusions
Mombasa is soft, Nairobi is being refurbished [they are spending some cash] and they are looking at a good election.
On a NAV basis its worth much more than the market Cap of $49m
Its a Buy, in fact
FY 2016 Earnings through 31st Dec 2016 versus through Dec 2015
FY Revenues 6.468803b versus 6.189360b +4.514%
FY Earnings before exchange loss, interest depreciation and Taxation 983.64m versus 551.492m +78.35%
Net Interest Expense [172.669m] versus [224.232m]
FY PBT 325.301m versus [210.976m] +254.2%
FY PAT 129.328m versus [280.571m]
FY EPS 0.54 versus [1.63]
FY Dividend 35cents a share
Company Commentary
Tourism sector in East Africa witnessed a slow but positive turnaround during the second half of 2016
traditional and new international source markets performed slightly better than year 2015
increased activity within the EA corporate sector and domestic leisure market segment
experiencing a margin squeeze resulting from overdevelopment around TPSs units
Conclusions
Rebounding with further to go. I expect the rebound to gather strength but the Election is a possible curve ball in FY 17
This is the most optimistic they have been in their commentary for eternity.
I think its a Buy at 23.50
Riding along the Shore Lake Elmentaita @SerenaHotels
http://www.twitpic.com/chc1u0
@Serenahotels Mombasa Indian Ocean
http://www.twitpic.com/23hoxj
Interview with: Mahmud Jan Mohamed, MD @SerenaHotels @YouTube
?v=qXiD7W9lIJ0
H1 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589%
H1 Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589%
H1 Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279%
H1 Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266%
H1 Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824%
H1 Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764%
H1 Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727%
EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508%
Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260%
Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974%
Company Commentary
International leisure bookings for the Kenya safari circuit recorded slow recovery during the Fist Half of 2016.
Current indications for the Kenyan safari business segment look much healthier than the past 2 years particularly for the Mara and the Laikipia regions from July 2016
Kenyan coastal region will continue to record low occupancies
Serena Tanzania and Serena Uganda are expected to record satisfactory performance on both leisure and corporate market segments during 2016
Peak Season [July to October 2016] and the rest of the year is expected to be positive
Included in the results for H116 are repairs and maintenance costs that were above 2015 levels various overhauls on northern circuit properties Tanzania
In the course of 2016 Serena commenced refurbishment of Nairobi Serena and extension of Kampala Serena
No Interim Dividend
Conclusions
Substantial improvement Year on Year but the key issue is will the Rebound Trajectory steepen.
I thought the Coast might start to see a Rebound by now given the Travails in some destinations like Egypt, Turkey etc but there appears to be no discernible spill over
This is a good entry level on an 18 month horizon.
FY Sales 6.189360b vs. 6.337210b -2.333%
FY Earnings before exchange loss, interest, depreciation and taxation 551.492m vs. 782.387m -29.512%
FY Unrealised exchange loss on foreign currency loans [121.566m] vs. [17.608m] +590.402%
FYs Net interest expense [224.232m] vs. [154.419m] +45.210%
FY Depreciation on property, plant & equipment [426.566m] vs. [426.237m] +0.077%
FY [Loss] profit before income tax [210.976m] vs. 220.101m -195.854%
FY [Loss] profit after tax [280.613m] vs. 274.419m -202.257%
Attributable to equity holders of the company [296.571m] vs. 245.910m -220.601%
[Loss] earnings per share attributable to the equity holders of the company [1.63] vs. 1.35 -220.741%
Dividend 0.25 vs. 1.35 -84.481%
Company Commentary
The Company navigated through another challenging year for the Tourism Industry in East Africa which negatively impacted performance due to a combination of external factors that were beyond Managements control.
During 2015 Total Arrivals at JKIA and Moi International Airport recorded a drop of approximately 30% and 70% compared to 2012
Tourist Arrivals recorded a drop of approximately 30% in Year 2015 versus 2014
The tourism Industry remains confident that at least the second half of 2016 should witness a reversal of fortunes in the Kenyan Tourism Industry
Safari business segment positive from July 2016
Kenyan Coastal region will continue to record low occupancies although improvement forecasted from November 2016
During Year 2016, Serena Hotels commenced the refurbishment of Nairobi Serena and the extension of Kampala Serena
Conclusions
It was a tough period and TPS is pushing the rebound right out to Q4 2016.
TPS Serena 1st Half Earnings through 30th June 2015 versus through 30th June 2014
H1 Sales 2.671950b versus 2.711993b -1.47%
Profit before Exchange Loss Interest Depreciation and taxation 257.588m versus 335.441m -23.2%
Exchange Loss on Foreign Currency Loans [75.156m] versus [14.530m] +417.2%
Net Interest Cost [108.005m] versus [56.239m] +92.04%
Depreciation on Property Plant and Equipment [213.881m] versus [206.425m]
[Loss] profit before Income Tax [139.454m] versus 58.247m
[Loss] Profit after Taxation [97.284m] versus 41.475m
EPS [0.61] versus 0.13
Currency translation differences [358.713m] versus [70.537m]
Company Commentary
First half of year 2015 proved to be quite challenging
a slowdown in international leisure bookings to Kenya and Tanzania
East African portfolio recored encouraging business levels in the corporate business segment although bookings are at very short lead times
high profile events that are scheduled to take place defining moment underline East Africas increasing importance
The business outlook for the peak season [July to October 2015] is expected to be at satisfactory levels
During 2015 and 2016 begin extension and refurbishment at Nairobi Serena Kampala and Dar Es Salaam Serena
Conclusions
Soft First Half but I am optimistic that H2 will leverage the Potus Visit and increased interest in the region.
H1 might well prove the bottom the Issue is around the Rebound which i expect to be gradual.
Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2014 versus through 31st December 2013
Full Year Sales 6.337210b versus 6.814334b -7.001%
Earnings before Exchange Loss Interest Depreciation and Taxation 782.387m versus 1.250285b -37.42%
Net Interest Expense [154.419m] versus [144.822m]
Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [426.237m] versus [388.246m]
Full Year Profit before income Tax 220.101m versus 451.001m -51.19%
Full Year deferred income tax 109.004m versus [76.909m]
Full Year Profit after Tax 274.419m versus 451.001m -39.15%
Full Year Earnings Per Share 1.35 versus 2.26 -40.265%
Final Dividend 1.35 a share unchanged
Company Commentary
Year 2014 proved to be another challenging year for the Company as the Tourism Industry has been battling to rebound from a series of setbacks since year 2013
The setbacks include elevated travel advisories and other firms of security alerts issued by governments of main source markets, growing threat of terrorism and local security incidents, introduction of VAT on tourism services and park fees in September 2013 which continue to make Kenya uncompetitive relative to other safari destinations.
EBOLA bookings for units in Tanzania witnessed extensive cancellations for period September 2014 to March 2015
Kenyan Coast is experiencing an unprecedented business crisis
Corporate business segments contributed positively
The positive results can be considered satisfactory within the overall context of a business environment that was challenging
In 2015 Serena is expected to begin the extension and refurbishment projects at Nairobi Serena Hotel, Kampala and Dar Es Salaam
Conclusions
These issues have largely been a known known.
See My Interview with Mahmud Jan Mohamed, MD, Serena Hotels @SerenaHotels @YouTube
?v=qXiD7W9lIJ0
Therefore, my view is that this a creditable performance when considered against that backdrop. There is no Silver bullet that I can see that is going to sort out the Tourism Industry anytime soon.
First Half through 30th June 2014 versus 30th June 2013
First Half Sales 2.711993b versus 2.921193b
Profit before exchange loss, interest, depreciation and Taxation 335.441m versus 486.343m
First Half profit before Income Tax 58.247m versus 205.079m
First Half Profit after Tax 41.475m versus 141.077m
H1 Earnings Per Share 0.13 versus 0.69
Company Commentary
a challenging business landscape in Kenya
Serena Tanzania and Serena Uganda recorded good performances during the period under review
Peak Season [July to October 2014] is at satisfactory levels
No Interim Dividend
Conclusions
Those results are better than I in fact expected. Serena is a diversified Franchise sure Coastal Tourism is soft and expected to remain so but there is diversification and the business is worth a great deal more than its current 6.785b valuation.
Sun Rise from the Bed Room @ The Polana @Serenahotels #Maputo
http://www.twitpic.com/9sa9j5
Lake Elmenteita @SerenaHotels #Kenya #Africa
http://www.twitpic.com/chl3gk
The Serena The Star
https://rich.co.ke/media/docs/041NSX1106.pdf
MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there. The Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds me of happy joyful carefree halcyon days of youth. That brand equity was appreciated last Thursday at the Grosvenor House where The Serena Hotels won the Best Hospitality, Travel and Tourism in Africa award at the African Business Awards.
And now, Serena is clearly staking out a much more forward and offensive position across the region and as you know by now, I sense the Eastern sea board of Africa is at a tipping Point [The oil and gas refers but just as important is the late cycle arrival of the information century which is the entry ticket for Africa to join in the c21st That Arrival of the Information Century is very grass roots because anyone with an Internet enabled mobile phone has an entry ticket and therefore, I see the expansion of the brand as timely and riding a rising tide. The brand is established. Its got breadth, its not a mom and pop operation. Sure, lots of folks are coming for Serena lunch but their longevity, their ability to navigate has been proven and their DNA make them a formidable competitor.
Real Time 1818 #Serena Indian Ocean #Mombasa 1,484 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/23hoxj
FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus 31st December 2012
FY Sales 6.841420b versus 5.343960b +28.021%
FY EBITDA 1.467815b versus 1.164826b +26.011%
FY Net Interest Expense [144.822m] versus [154.561m]
FY Depreciation [388.246m] versus [303.694m] +27.84%
FY Profit before Tax 973.247m versus 721.516m +34.889%
FY Profit After Tax 668.530m versus 493.588m +35.442%
FY EPS 3.45 versus 3.60 -4.1666%
Final Dividend 1.35 a share versus 1.30 +3.846%
Weighted average number of shares 182,174 versus 148.211
Company commentary
faced a challenging business landscape during the first half of 2013
During the last quarter 2013 JKIA Fire incident Westgate Mall and grenade attacks in tourist areas in Mombasa resulted in further anxiety in source markets
Serena Tanzania and Uganda outlook for 2014 is at encouraging levels
Taking all factors into account, the companys performance for the year 2013 is commendable
Conclusions
Commendable results when set against a weak Tourism backdrop. Serena is regionally diversified which brings some insulation from pure Kenya dynamic which have been soft. This is an undervalued share, in my opinion.
H1 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012
H1 Sales 2.921193b versus 2.209633b +32.202%
Net Interest Cost [81.482m] versus [63.900m]
H1 PBT 205.079m versus 170.098m +20.565%
H1 PAT 141.077m versus 120.498m +17.078%
EPS 0.69 versus 0.90 -23.333%
Weighted Average number of shares 182.174m versus 148.211m
Company Commentary
a challenging business landscape in Kenya during the first half of year 2013
On a positive note, the peaceful elections helped to further strengthen Kenyas reputation as one of Africas stable democracies and a forecast business outlook for the peak season from July to October 2013 is at healthy levels
The Management therefore remains optimistic that the company will record satisfactory results at the end of the Year.
Company continues to concentrate on the new and emerging markets in line with the Alternative Markets Strategy [Middle East, India, China, Japan and Africa]
No Interim Dividend
Conclusions
TPS has a very strong H2 Skew and therefore the H2 Forecast is supportive.
This is a strong EAC Franchise well positioned to ride the expected Expansion in the EAC.
The Trailing PE of 13.125 has a built in concession now re the increased number of shares.
Good Turnover expansion of +32.202% H1.
FY Earnings through Dec 2012 versus FY Earnings through 2011
FY Sales 5.343960b versus 5.465975b -2.2322%
FY PBT 721.516m versus 853.133m -15.427%
FY PAT 493.588m versus 615.891m -19.857%
FY EPS 3.60 versus 4.51 -20.177%
Final Dividend 1.30 per share [2.4299% Yield]
Company Commentary
Company successfully navigated through a rather challenging business Landscape for the Tourism Industry in East Africa
Company cites Euro Zone Crisis, increased energy and interest Costs, fragile security and political environments, travel advisories and security alerts
Companys Performance for the Year 2012 was salutary
Conclusions
I think TPS SerenaHotels is the most correlated share to the Peaceful Outcome of the recently held General Election.
There is Upside towards 75.00 in the Event Kenya and the EAC accelerates into a New Normal GDP Trajectory which looks increasingly likely.
Swot Analysis H1 2012 versus H1 2011
Sales 2.209633b versus 2.113639b +4.5%
Profit before Exchange Loss Interest and Depreciation 404.516m versus
430.426m -6.00%
Net Interest Cost 63.9m versus 42.412m
Depreciation 173.894m versus 114.089m
Profit Before Tax 170.098m versus 264.709m -35.7%
Profit After Tax 120.498m versus 185.671m -35.1%
EPS 0.90 versus 1.36 -34%
Company Commentary
Given Their Relative Reliance on the Eurozone based Source Markets,
The Tourism Sector in Kenya and Zanzibar encountered various
challenges during the First Quarter 2012.
Company talks about the H2 Skew.
Conclusions
The FY now requires a Muscular H2 Rebound.
TPS Eastern Africa Ltd. (Serena) reports FY 2011 PBT +23.1% Details here
http://j.mp/5Ve4gj
FY 2011 Results versus FY 2010
Turnover 5.5b versus 4.5b +22%
Profit Before Tax 853.133m versus 629.933m +23.1%
Profit After Tax 615.891m versus 516.384m
Earnings per Share 4.51 versus 3.49 [Restated]
Final Dividend 1.30 per Share
Conclusions
Its the Only listed Proxy at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. It looks
squarely priced on a PE of 10.69844
Swot Analysis H1 2011 Results versus H1 2010
Sales 2.113639b versus 1.785452b +18.4%
PBT 264.709m versus 215.621m +22.8%
PAT 185.671m versus 142.178m +30.6%
EPS 1.36 versus 0.96 +42.13% There is a Big 2nd Half Bias
No Interim Dividend
Conclusions
The Group always exhibits a Strong H2 Bias and they are forecasting a
strong Book over that Period
FY 2010 versus FY 2009
Sales 4.462614b versus 3.889365b +14.7%
PAT 516.384m versus 380.362m
EPS 4.39 versus 3.59
Final Dividend 1.25 per share
Conclusions
Note the Commentary which is very cautious.
Its a well managed regional Franchise and the only listed Tourism Counter. |
