|Tuesday 07th of December 2010
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as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
My Weekly Piece for The #Star The Cream always rises to the Top The
New Age of #Meritocracy
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
I thank Legatum, The Omidyar Network and ZK Advertising for the Invite
to the Africa Awards last Night at the Arboretum.
Congragulations to Craft Silicon for bagging the $100,000.00 1st Prize.
It was a Pleasure to catch up with so Many people. I caught up with
the Right Honourable Lord Boateng of Akyem and Wembley and He said
'Hi its been a long time You had more hair then.'
Welcome to this Missive.
CNBC Africa 6 December - Kenya Markets - Aly Khan Satchu - Rich Management
Search #Mindspeak on www.twitter.com
Mindspeak was fun today. A chance to interact with Nairobi's
brightest. Alykhansatchu ever thought of hosting a session outside
Nairobi?December 4, 2010 1:28 PM via Twitter for iPadbobcollymore Bob
Gold at a New Record.
Granddad in Mombasa is getting very excited about our Christmas Road
Trip as are his 3 Grand Daughters. I cannot wait to see some Red
Elephants in Tsavo on the way, pay my respects to my Mother. She is
buried beneath a Frangipani Tree in Mombasa. I fancy getting up to
Malindi and down to Diani and yet the days are busy and I am not sure
when it might slow down.
A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don't bet on it Asia Times
Law & Politics
A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don't bet on it. The
demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far
more quickly than anyone imagines. If Washington is dreaming of 2040
or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic
assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that in 2025, just
15 years from now, it could all be over except for the shouting.
Despite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their
history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. So delicate
is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad,
empires regularly unravel with unholy speed
this 21st century imperial collapse could come relatively quietly
through the invisible tendrils of economic collapse or cyberwarfare.
When Things Tip, It tends to Tip and Surge. Its all about the
Economics, in fact.
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
India Rupee 44.815
South Korea Won 1131.50
The euro traded at $1.3318, recovering from some of its earlier losses
but still down from $1.3411 late Friday. It fell as low as $1.3245
“The weak nonfarm payrolls data on Friday were a not-so-gentle
reminder that while the [euro] has its fair share of problems with the
peripheral euro-zone sovereign debt, anemic growth and the [Federal
Open Market Committee’s second round of quantitative easing] are
significant negatives for the [U.S. dollar],” said David Forrester, a
foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Capital, in a note to clients.
On Balance, The Dollar is structurally under Pressure for the
Forseeable Future with Bouts of Knee Jerk Strength.
The Bed of Procrustes Nassim Nicholas Taleb
World Of Finance
In his writings and publicity photos, Lebanese-born Taleb strikes a
pose. His biographical sketch says he “spends most of his time as a
flaneur, meditating in cafes across the planet.”
The title refers to a sadistic thug from Greek mythology who abducted
travelers and forced them to lie in a special bed. If a hostage was
too short, Procrustes stretched him to fit the furniture. If too tall,
his legs got lopped off. The bed came to symbolize any arbitrary
standard ruthlessly used to produce conformity. The theme speaks to
Taleb’s preoccupation with how humans handle the unknown and
“Every aphorism here is about a Procrustean bed of sorts,” he writes.
“We humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe,
the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and
the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories,
specific vocabularies and prepackaged narratives, which, on the
occasion, has explosive consequences.”
“Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment,” he writes.
Taleb can be funny in an acerbic way, as in this gem: “For pleasure,
read one chapter of Nabokov. For punishment, two.”
“They are born, then put in a box; they go home to live in a box; they
study by ticking boxes; they go to what is called ‘work’ in a box,
where they sit in their cubicle box; they drive to the grocery store
in a box to buy food in a box; they go to the gym in a box to sit in a
box; they talk about thinking ‘outside the box’; and when they die
they are put in a box,” he writes. “All boxes, Euclidian,
geometrically smooth boxes.”
He is a disturbing Person to Follow on Twitter @nntaleb.
Live 24 Hour Continuous Spot Gold Price KITCO 1421.25
Gold Futures Surge to Record $1,429.40 Bloomberg
Gold futures for February delivery reached the all-time high in
after-hours trading after closing up $9.90, or 0.7 percent, to
$1,416.10 at 2:14 p.m. on the Comex in New York. The previous intraday
record was $1,424.30 on Nov. 9. The metal was up $18.30, or 1.3
percent, to $1,424.50 at 4:43 p.m., compared with the settlement on
The metal is in “an unchartered territory” after breaking the record,
Lesh said. Prices may reach $1,456 or higher by the end of the year,
Silver futures for March delivery rose 46.4 cents, or 1.6 percent, to
settle at $29.735 an ounce. In after-hours trading, the price reached
$30.355, extending a rally to the highest since 1980.
Silver Dec 2010 INO 29.705 +0.464 (+1.59%)
Last Price 29.705
Contract High 29.175
Contract High Date 2010-11-09
Contract Low 9.78
First Delivery 2010-12-31
Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
COCOA CC.Z10.E Dec 2010 3048 +143 +4.93%
COFFEE KC.Z10.E Dec 2010 208.65 +4.15 +2.02%
COTTON #2 CT.Z10.E Dec 2010 141.50 -0.42 -0.30%
SUGAR #11 SB.H11.E Mar 2011 29.09 -0.41 -1.39%
Cocoa Dec 2010 1 Month Chart INO 3048 +143 (+4.93%)
Last Price 3048
Previous Close 2900
Contract High 3497
Contract Low 2280
First Delivery 2010-12-30
Contract High Date 2009-12-16
Ivory Coast refers.
I.Coast's Ouattara offers jobs to Gbagbo cabinet Reuters
Law & Politics
Ivory Coast's presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara offered
government posts on Monday to members of his rival Laurent Gbagbo's
cabinet, if Gbagbo stepped down.It was the latest manoeuvre in a power
struggle that has enveloped the West African state since an election
that yielded two winners -- Ouattara with international backing, and
Gbagbo with the support of the nation's top legal body and military.
"If Laurent Gbagbo agrees to leave power quietly, the ministers from
his party would be welcome in the government we plan to lead,"
Guillaume Soro, Ivory Coast's premier who has pledged to serve
Ouattara, told France's Europe 1 radio.
The political deadlock gripped the world's top cocoa grower after the
Constitutional Council -- run by a Gbagbo ally -- scrapped hundreds of
thousands of votes from Ouattara strongholds, reversing provisional
results from the election commission that had given Ouattara victory.
U.S. President Barack Obama has sided with Ouattara, leading calls
from the United Nations, France, the European Union, the African Union
and West African bloc ECOWAS that Gbagbo accept the election
commission outcome. ECOWAS leaders are due to hold an emergency summit
on Ivory Coast on Tuesday.
Gbagbo has scorned the international rejection as an affront to
Ivorian sovereignty and has threatened to expel the U.N. Ivory Coast
envoy for interference in internal affairs.
Citing a "breakdown of governance", the World Bank and the African
Development Bank said they would reassess aid, adding pressure on
Benchmark ICE cocoa futures traded at a four-month high of $3,028 a
tonne on Monday.
Despite the political stand-off, Ivory Coast reopened international
borders on Monday that had been sealed during a tense wait for the
results, and traffic in the business district of the economic capital
Abidjan was nearly back to normal.
"The international community has got to play a straight game otherwise
it will be a mess in this country. Ouattara's forming his government,
Gbagbo's forming his -- where will it end?" said civil servant Maurice
The crisis in Ivory Coast, once West Africa's brightest economic star,
has forced up the risk premium on the country's $2.3 billion Eurobond.
It is currently yielding 11.67 percent, from below 10 percent before
Ruling party sweeps Egypt's vote Aljazeera
Law & Politics
The Egyptian ruling party has swept to a predictably huge win in a
parliamentary election that the opposition denounced as rigged,
Egypt's high elections commission has said.Monday's result has shown
that Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) secured about 80
per cent of seats, based on final figures released by the elections
commission, compared with about 70 per cent in the last parliament.
"The 2010 parliament is certainly the most illegitimate in recent
Egyptian history and no one can take it seriously," said analyst Shadi
Hamid of the Brookings Doha Centre.
Of 508 seats being contested, the NDP won 420, while 70 went to
independent candidates and 14 to other political parties.
Nigeria’s Vanishing Currency Reserves Add Risk to Eurobond Sale Bloomberg
Nigeria is depleting its foreign currency reserves to defend the naira
and running down oil savings before elections next year, damping
investor confidence as the government prepares its first global bond
Reserves fell by almost $10 billion to $33.1 billion in the year
through Nov. 29, according to data compiled by the Central Bank of
Nigeria in Abuja. The reserves include the government’s Excess Crude
Fitch Ratings cut its outlook Oct. 22 for the sovereign debt rating on
Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, even as crude prices held
above $80 a barrel. With the threat of violence before April’s
election increasing, investors may move to take more money out of the
country, straining the central bank’s policy of keeping the naira
pegged close to 150 to the dollar. As the money drains away, the West
African nation pushes ahead with a $500 million bond sale for this
“They aren’t saving for infrastructure, they aren’t saving for a rainy
day,” said Veronica Kalema, Sub-Saharan Africa analyst at London-based
Fitch. “That’s no way to manage an oil economy.”
Concern that violence will disrupt next year’s election has been
boosting foreign currency demand at biweekly central bank auctions
since September, Kalema said.
It also sent the yield on Nigeria’s 91-day Treasury bills to 7.9
percent on Nov. 26 from a record low of 1.04 percent on March 11,
according to central bank data. Ghana’s 8.5 percent fixed-rate
Eurobond, due October 2017, yielded 6.08 percent on Dec. 6, down from
7.53 percent on March 1.
Alleged militant leader Henry Okah said in a telephone interview from
jail yesterday that the insurgency won’t end until the government
allows the region to control its oil wealth.
The central bank of Africa’s most populous nation has been
hemorrhaging reserves even as crude output rose 15 percent to 2.15
million barrels a day in October from a year ago, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. Oil accounts for 95 percent of Nigeria’s
foreign currency earnings.
The flight of capital contrasts with such other emerging markets as
South Africa and Brazil, which have seen inflows soar as near-zero
interest rates in Europe, the U.S. and Japan fuel demand for
high-yielding assets. Brazil’s real and South Africa’s rand have
strengthened 37 percent against the dollar since the start of last
“It is curious that with a wave of liquidity flooding into emerging
markets, Nigeria stands apart,” Razia Khan, head of Africa economic
research at Standard Chartered Plc, said in an interview in
Johannesburg. “With oil prices stable and oil output back to its best
levels since 2006, it is a concern that foreign exchange reserves have
Demand for dollars climbed to a high of $741.4 million at the Sept. 27
central bank auction, compared with an average of $248.9 million in
the first eight months, the bank’s data show. The naira weakened to as
low as 155.675 per dollar on the day, compared with the central bank’s
target of 150. It traded as low as 151.75 yesterday.
“The trend in reserves is worrying,” Samir Gadio, an emerging-markets
economist at Standard Bank Group Ltd., said in a phone interview from
Lagos. “When you have a heavily managed currency, and your reserves
are dropping like this, at some stage the market will start to panic.”
About $5.5 billion was withdrawn from the fund this year for
investment in power plants, and another $1 billion was used as seed
capital for a new sovereign wealth fund, Okwudili Ojukwu-Enendu, a
spokesman for Finance Minister Olusegun Aganga, said in an e-mailed
response to questions. He declined to say how much remained. Aganga
told Bloomberg on Sept. 3 that the account held between $500 million
and $800 million.
On Oct. 25, Aganga said Fitch’s lowering of the outlook on Nigeria’s
BB- credit rating to “negative” from “stable” was “unduly punitive” as
the creation of the sovereign wealth fund would bolster government
finances. The bill is currently awaiting approval from lawmakers.
Another factor boosting confidence is Nigeria’s relatively small
public debt: about 15 percent of gross domestic product, according to
the International Monetary Fund. That compares with 127 percent in
Greece and 68 percent in the U.K. Investors are unlikely to shun the
international bond sale, Kalema said.
“Nigeria’s political backdrop, more contentious in the run-up to 2011
than is usually the case, may be feeding nervousness about the
continued stability of the naira,” said Khan. Building reserves “is
key to the restoration of confidence.”
$ versus Nigeria Naira ForexPros live 151.10 Last
Hundreds held over Kenya attacks Aljazeera
Law & Politics
Kenyan police have announced the arrest of 346 foreigners in the
capital, Nairobi, after two separate grenade and gun attacks last week
killed three policemen.Anthony Kibuchi, Nairobi's provincial police
chief, told Reuters news agency that 52 of those arrested were
Ethiopians while the rest were of Somali origin.
"The security operation on aliens was carried out all over Nairobi,"
Kibuchi said on Monday.
"We have come out with more stringent measures to ensure holiday
festivities are free of any incidents
and appeal to members of the public to co-operate with police."
In the first attack on Friday, unidentified men lobbed a grenade into
a police vehicle in the capital's predominantly Somali suburb of
Eastleigh, killing one officer. Later in the day, two men on
motorbikes shot dead two traffic policemen when they had been pulled
Kenya asked the US Federal Bureau of Investigation for assistance to
investigate the incidents.
Kenya's Deacons share offer raises 88 pct of target Reuters
Retail & Manufacturing
A share offer by Kenya clothing and home goods retailer Deacons failed
to meet its target but raised 700.99 million shillings, increasing its
shareholder base to meet the threshold for listing.Deacons, which has
25 outlets of mainly South African clothing store franchises scattered
in three countries, had hoped to raise 800 million shillings in the
offer, but fell short by 12 percent, the company said in a statement
on Tuesday.Deacons had said in November it planned to list on the
Nairobi Stock Exchange in 12 months, and the offer was meant to raise
cash for expansion in Kenya and the region. The retailer said it had
exceeded a minimum target of 500 million shillings.
Deacons distributes merchandise for South Africa's Mr. Price,
Woolworths, and Truworths, Identity and Sheet Street. It has two of
its own brands 4U2 and Angelo and has outlets for Adidas and gym
equipment brand Life Fitness.
The Prospectus is here www.rich.co.ke
The Nairobi Stock Exchange partially snapped an 11 Session losing Streak.
The Nairobi All Share was down a marginal 0.02 points to close at
97.25 and hence makes it 12 Down Days on that Index.
The NSE20 turned 1.86 points higher to close at 4378.63.
Market Cap was 1.160177 Trillion versus 1.160378 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 398.322m versus 332.825m last Time.
The Bourse is oversold and trying to base out here.
Deacons was subscribed at 88%.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Kakuzi was marked down 3.125% to close at 77.50 and traded 1,800
shares. Kakuzi trades on a Trailing PE of 4.47. Production and Price
Levels of Tea and Avocadoes have both been Higher than in the Previous
Year. Plus You have an Incredible amount of Fat on the Balance Sheet,
what with all that Land sitting on the Thika Super Highway in the
books at the Purchase Price [bought at a time when the The Flame Trees
of Thika was written].
Rea Vipingo firmed 2.302% to close at 15.55 and traded 18,800 shares.
Sasini Tea regained 13.00 and traded 21,000 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
shares volume 19,499,100
total turnover 89,569,824
avg price 4.59 CLOSING PRICE 4.55 +1.11%
low price 4.50
last price 4.60
Safaricom was the most Active share at the Nairobi Stock Exchange and
was locked at 4.60 +2.22% into the Session Finale. Safaricom trades on
a Trailing PE of 11.842 and was sold down aggressively from 6.00+
levels coincident with the Arrival of Sunil Mittal's Bharti Airtel and
Concerns that Airtel could play an 'Irrational' Play ad Infinitum.
Whilst Airtel can play that Game, I sense that Play is over and
Shareholders have yet to appreciate that Fact. [This Debate actually
surfaced at Mindspeak and I will be posting Bob Collymore's
Presentation imminently. Buyers are camped at 4.50+ and the Price
well overdue an 'Oversold' Bounce.
Safaricom share price data 1st Half Results from www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 0.05/-
Closing Price: 4.50
Total Shares Issued: 40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization: 180,000M
Access Kenya traded 470,000 shares and closed 1.567% easier at 15.70.
Access Kenya traded a 15.55 [Its 2010 Closing Low] - 15.80 range.
Kenya Airways was unchanged at 46.50 and traded 26,700 shares.
Nation Media was unchanged at 160.00 with 28,100 shares traded.
Standard slipped 3.295 to close at 44.00 and traded 5,100 shares.
ScanGroup was unchanged at 60.00 and traded 14,200 shares.
CMC Holdings traded 116,300 shares and closed unchanged at 12.05.
CarGen did not trade.
TPS Serena was unchanged at 68.00 and traded 6,000 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
COOP Bank traded 2nd at the Bourse. COOP Bank was unchanged at 19.00
and incredibly managed to print a Trade at a session Low of 18.05!
COOP Bank traded an 18.05-19.25 range and traded 3.543m shares worth
Standard Chartered Bank was unchanged at 257.00 and traded a
255.00-259.00 range and 73,100 shares worth 18.795m. StanChart has
posted an 86.686% I year Return and traded a 313.00 2010 High on 6th
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 60.50 but trading at 61.50 +1.65%
session Highs into the Close. Barclays Bank traded 299,600 shares
worth 18.257m as a Buyer stepped in and cleared the Overhang of Supply
which had pushed the Price to Range Lows.
KCB traded unchanged at 21.75 and a 21.50-22.25 range. KCB traded
763,800 shares worth 16.644m. KCB trades on an egregious Forward PE
Multiple of around 7.00. I expect a sharp Re Rating higher probably
ahead of or coincident with the Full Year Results.
Equity Bank eased back 25 cents to close at 25.75 and traded 1.471m shares.
NIC rallied 2.0658% to close at 49.00 and traded a 48.00-49.50 range
and 278,200 shares worth 13.647m.
HFCK firmed 1.02% to close at 24.75 and traded a 24.00-25.75 range and
was at 25.00 +2.04% into the close with 40,400 shares changing hands
DTB firmed 0.72% to close at 132.00 and traded 39,100 shares.
NBK firmed 1.315% to close at 38.50 and traded 29,600 shares. Recall
the Permanent Secretary Finance very much put it into Play.
CFC StanBic eased 50 cents to close at 78.00 and traded 5,100 shares.
Kenya Re rallied 4.82% to close at 11.95 and traded an 11.05-12.00
range and 914,200 shares worth 10.954m. Interestingly, Kenya Re was in
fact trading at 11.05 and -3.07% session lows into the Close.
Jubilee eased 0.53% to close at 188.00 and traded 1,700 shares.
PanAfric traded 3,500 shares at 70.00 -2.1%.
Centum was unchanged at 22.75 and traded 107,500 shares.
Olympia Capital closed at 6.50 and traded 200 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
Eveready reported its Full Year EPS of 0.04 and Profits Before Tax
-65% citing The Illicit Dry Cell Trade and Higher Zinc Prices +43% as
having crimped Earnings. Eveready firmed 1.64% to close at 3.10 and
traded a 3.20 +4.92% session high and 33,000 shares. Eveready had
warned previously and now trades on a PE of over 70.00.
Sameer bounced 6.036% to close at 5.90 and traded 17,600 shares.
Bamburi Cement was the 3rd most Active share at the Bourse. Bamburi
Cement firmed 1.545% to close at 197.00 and traded a 196.00-198.00
range and 178,400 shares worth 35.206m. Bamburi Cement trades on a
Trailing PE of 10.59 but there was a Large Slug of One-Off capital
Gain in those Full Year Results related to the sale of a share in Athi
River Mining that Bamburi liquidated.
Bamburi Cement share price data www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 194.00
Total Shares Issued: 362,959,264
Market Capitalization: 70,414M
ARM traded 6,600 shares all at 172.00 and unchanged.
Portland did not trade.
KenolKobil traded 4th at the Bourse. KenolKobil rallied 1.01% to close
at 10.00 and traded 2.573m shares worth 25.736m. KenolKobil issued a
Press Statement yesterday where Management stated It 'is bullish about
the Company Results for 2010.' KenolKobil looks very well supported at
KenolKobil share price data and Press Statement issued yesterday www.rich.co.ke
Total eased 1.69% to close at 29.00 and traded 3,500 shares.
EABL fell 1.92% to close at 204.00 and traded 20,800 shares and Kept
the Broader Index in the Red. At todays Close, we have corrected 9.33%
from the 225 All Time Closing High of 12 Sessions back.
Kenya Power Ordinary shares eased 1.086% to close at 22.75 with
413,600 shares changing hands.
KPLC Rights eased 1.75% to close at 2.80 and traded 1.180m shares.
KenGen firmed 0.6006% to close at 16.75 and traded 253,600 shares.
Cables bounced 1.92% to close at 15.85 and traded 10,700 shares.
BAT firmed 0.72% to close at 279.00 and traded 24,700 shares.
BOC Kenya retreated by 6.04% to close at 140.00 on 500 shares, which
was actually what it rose by yesterday.
CarBacid did not trade.
Crown Berger closed at 32.00 and traded 2,000 shares.
Unga closed higher at 11.15 and traded 37,800 shares.