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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 10th of December 2010
 
Morning
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

Bob Collymore CEO Safaricom at #Mindspeak RICH TV
http://bit.ly/1mPS6v

Search #Mindspeak on www.twitter.com

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

Kenya Economic Update KEU Edition 3 The Tipping Point
http://bit.ly/exqFwJ

Financial Times Kenya Special
http://bit.ly/eE6lTu

My Weekly Piece for The #Star The Cream always rises to the Top The
New Age of #Meritocracy
http://bit.ly/fcAVB3

I have a manic Day today. Am Presenting about Start Ups at
@Africagathering at the IHUB and am going to start that Presentation
by playing The Rolling Stones Start Me Up http://bit.ly/eA23yj Then I
have Lunch at the Norfolk with Murray Grant of Actis and then a Walk
in the Street and Talk Interview with the BBC World Service.

Macro Thoughts



Home Thoughts

I am so looking forward to our Road Trip through Tsavo via Finch
Hattons and then down to Mombasa and up and down the Coast. Hannah
tells me that when she grows up She wants to emigrate to Mombasa. She,
unlike her Older Sisters, was born there, by the Sea in the Mombasa
Hospital. And is very Fond of her GrandFather [who lives there] as are
her Older Sisters. I was reading up about Finch Hatton again and one
of his Favourite Places on the Coast was Takaungu.

Takaungu The New York Times 1986
http://nyti.ms/gC0fiZ

Then comes the coast and Takaungu, the house Denys Finch Hatton built.
It has changed ownership several times and is seldom occupied. From
its tiny veranda, the scenery is still as Karen Blixen described it,
''of a divine, clean, barren marine greatness, with the blue Indian
Ocean before you, the deep creek of Takaunga (sic) to the south. . .
.'' When the tide is out you can still ''walk miles away seawards from
the house, as on a tremendous, somewhat unevenly paved piazza, picking
up strange long peaked shells and starfish.''

One can read from the book here and know how utterly unchanged the
place is; the water on the incoming tide sighs in the caves as she
described it. Behind the house is the weathered ruin of an Arab mosque
so thickly enshrouded in creeper that unless one knew it was there,
one would not suspect its existence. The dhows that she wrote about
still can be spotted beyond the reef, as they come in annually on the
kaskasi, the monsoon that has blown them on their trading course from
the Persian Gulf to East Africa.

There, too, she sat with Denys Finch Hatton one New Year's watching
the new moon and the planets Venus and Jupiter ''all close together,
in a group on the sky; it was such a radiant sight that you could
hardly believe it to be real, and I have never seen it again.''

We stopped One Evening on the way back from Malindi, It was a
mysterious Place I have to admit in that Dusk light.

Takaungu Google Image Search
http://bit.ly/hAhjhN

read more


Julian Assange, Information Anarchist WSJ
Law & Politics

In 2006, Mr. Assange wrote a pair of essays, "State and Terrorist
Conspiracies" and "Conspiracy as Governance." He sees the U.S. as an
authoritarian conspiracy. "To radically shift regime behavior we must
think clearly and boldly for if we have learned anything, it is that
regimes do not want to be changed," he writes. "Conspiracies take
information about the world in which they operate," he writes, and
"pass it around the conspirators and then act on the result."

His central plan is that leaks will restrict the flow of information
among officials—"conspirators" in his view—making government less
effective. Or, as Mr. Assange puts it, "We can marginalize a
conspiracy's ability to act by decreasing total conspiratorial power
until it is no longer able to understand, and hence respond
effectively to its environment. . . . An authoritarian conspiracy that
cannot think efficiently cannot act to preserve itself."

Berkeley blogger Aaron Bady last week posted a useful translation of
these essays. He explains Mr. Assange's view this way: "While an
organization structured by direct and open lines of communication will
be much more vulnerable to outside penetration, the more opaque it
becomes to itself (as a defense against the outside gaze), the less
able it will be to 'think' as a system, to communicate with itself."
Mr. Assange's idea is that with enough leaks, "the security state will
then try to shrink its computational network in response, thereby
making itself dumber and slower and smaller."

Or as Mr. Assange told Time magazine last week, "It is not our goal to
achieve a more transparent society; it's our goal to achieve a more
just society." If leaks cause U.S. officials to "lock down internally
and to balkanize," they will "cease to be as efficient as they were."

Conclusions

The Delicious Irony he has effectively posed is the absolute
Uselessness of Holding His Person in Custody.

What is the Point?

Its very Sun Tzu.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3249
Pound 1.5780
Yen 83.73
Aussie 0.9847
Rand 6.8775
South Korea Won 1141.20

The Dollar gave back some ground after a Strong 30 Year Bond Auction.

read more


US Bond Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Of Finance

1-Month Bill*    0/32    0.086
3-Month Bill*    0/32    0.142
6-Month Bill*    -0/32    0.183
1-Year Note*    0/32    0.273
2-Year Note*    0/32    0.628
3-Year Note*    0/32    0.996
5-Year Note*    -2/32    1.896
7-Year Note*    5/32    2.611
10-Year Note*    17/32    3.208
30-Year Bond*    28/32    4.404

The Treasury Department sold $13 billion in 30-year bonds in Thursday
at a yield of 4.41%, lower than traders expected.

read more


World Equity Markets At A Glance
World Of Finance

In a notable move, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 7.51, or 0.29%, to
2616.67, its highest close since Dec. 31, 2007. Thursday represented
its seventh-straight day in the black, marking the measure's longest
winning streak since October.

read more





Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities

COCOA
CC.Z10.E    Dec 2010     2971    -44    -1.46%   
COFFEE
KC.Z10.E    Dec 2010 204.30+0.05+0.02%
COTTON #2
CT.Z10.E    Dec 2010 138.00+0.01+0.01%   
SUGAR #11
SB.H11.E    Mar 2011     28.67-0.31    -1.06%  

read more


Chanel’s Métiers D’Arts Collection NYT
Misc.

The Chanel’s Métiers d’Arts collection was created in 2002 to showcase
the work of the small Paris ateliers.

read more


Postcard from China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region Photo Booth New Yorker
China

Last night, over the happy-hour din at the Half King, the talented and
ever-so-humble Carolyn Drake shared her pictures with a room packed
full of photographers and attentive fans. Though Drake discussed her
ongoing project on the former ’stans, the focus of the evening was her
work on the Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic minority on the edges of the
Taklamakan Desert in Western China. In recent years, Drake explained,
millions of Han Chinese have migrated into Uighur territory, bringing
an influx of infrastructure, government, and pursuit of natural
resources. In images that are beautiful, subtle, and unexpected,
Drake’s series, “Becoming Chinese,” documents the slow demise of the
Uighur’s ancient culture.

1. A Han Chinese oil worker passes the front of a “beauty salon” near
the Tazhong oil fields in the middle of the Taklamakan Desert while
sex workers wait for clients. Uighurs are banned from working in the
Tazhong oil fields.

2. A slab of meat hangs from the ceiling, amid textiles and rugs, in a
rural Uighur farmhouse.

read more


Nigeria leader had doubts over poll bid: WikiLeaks Reuters
Law & Politics


Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan had doubts this year about
whether he would stand in elections next April, saying his focus was
organising credible polls, according to a leaked U.S. diplomatic
cable.The cable, obtained by WikiLeaks and published by Britain's
Guardian newspaper, says Jonathan told then-U.S. Ambassador Robin
Sanders in February that he would only consider running if and when
those around him sought to persuade him to do so.

"Jonathan said he does not anticipate standing for elections in 2011
and that he is not working towards a presidential candidacy. He wants
to put into place an electoral structure that will be ready for
national elections," the cable said, referring to a February 26
meeting with Jonathan.

"He did, however, note that 'if they want me to run, that will be
something to consider at that time'," it said.

Jonathan was acting president of Africa's most populous nation at the
time of the meeting with Sanders.

President Umaru Yar'Adua was in a "semi-comatose" state, according to
the cable, and had just been flown back from treatment in Saudi
Arabia. A cabal led by his wife Turai was trying to maintain a grip on
power, the documents said.

Jonathan's office played down the remarks.

"At the time he made those statements, he was acting president. He
cannot say he is going to run when the president is still alive," Ken
Saro-Wiwa, Jonathan's special assistant on international affairs, told
Reuters.

Jonathan was sworn in on May 6 after Yar'Adua died.

He has since announced his candidacy for 2011, but faces a tough
battle securing the ruling party nomination because of a pact in the
party that power rotates every two terms between the mostly-Muslim
north and largely Christian south.History has always favoured the
incumbent, but Jonathan faces a challenge for the ruling party ticket
from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, selected by a group of
influential northern politicians as a rival consensus candidate.The
cable said Jonathan noted that northern politicians "would always be
uncomfortable with him as president" and that he understood he had
originally been chosen as Yar'Adua's vice president because he
represented the restive Niger Delta.

"I was not chosen to be Vice President because I had good political
experience ... I did not. There were a lot more qualified people
around to be Vice President, but that does not mean I am not my own
man," he was quoted as saying.

The cable said the U.S. government advised Jonathan to assert himself
as a national figure rather than a regional one, and to assert his
independence from former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a powerful
background figure in the ruling party.

But the U.S. welcomed Jonathan's apparently sincere desire to overhaul
the electoral system and ensure credible polls in 2011. Previous
elections in the West African country have been marred by voter
intimidation and ballot-stuffing.

"It is always hard to judge how someone will behave (or surprise you)
when leadership is unexpectedly thrown in their lap," the February
cable said.

"The verdict is out on Jonathan, and his previously underwhelming
personality and performance needs to keep us in the cautious lane, but
so far, so good."

read more


Guinean Junta Leader Camara Blocked From Power by U.S., Allies Bloomberg
Law & Politics

The U.S., France and Morocco maneuvered to keep former Guinean junta
leader Moussa Dadis Camara out of power after an assassination attempt
last year, according to U.S. diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks.

The cables are part of a trove of 250,000 classified State Department
documents obtained by WikiLeaks and published online. They provide
details of the extent to which the U.S., Morocco and former colonial
power France viewed Camara as a threat to peace in Guinea and tried to
stop him from returning to the country.

Camara was “widely regarded as deranged and drug-addled,”
wrotePatricia Moller, U.S. ambassador to Guinea, in a Dec. 22, 2009,
cable. The 46-year-old army captain had taken power in the ethnically
divided West African nation in December 2008 following the death of
President Lansana Conte, promising to hold elections after a two-year
transitional period.Ten months later, security forces loyal to Camara
killed at least 150 anti-junta protesters in the capital, Conakry, and
raped dozens of women in a premeditated attack, according to Human
Rights Watch, the New York-based advocacy group.

Guinea holds as much as half the world’s reserves of bauxite, an ore
used to make aluminum, more than 4 billion metric tons of “high-grade”
iron ore and “significant” deposits of diamonds and gold, according to
the State Department. Three of its neighbors -- Sierra Leone, Liberia
and Ivory Coast -- have experienced civil wars in the past 10 years.

In the weeks after the September 2009 killings, the U.S., the African
Union and France imposed sanctions on the junta, including travel
restrictions and the freezing of bank accounts. On Dec. 3, 2009, one
of Camara’s deputies shot him in the head.Camara was flown to Morocco,
where he arrived in a coma, before doctors removed bullet fragments
from his skull. By January, Moroccan Foreign Minister Taieb Fassi
Fihri told U.S. diplomats Camara had “regained 80 percent of his
faculties, but has difficulty putting more than five words together
without 30- second pauses before the next phrase or sentence,”
according to a Jan. 8 cable from Samuel Kaplan, the U.S. ambassador to
Morocco.A month after the assassination attempt, Camara was ready to
return home “to cut off hands and heads” to restore his rule,
according to a Jan. 15 cable detailing remarks by Fihri to U.S.
diplomats.

Camara was put on a Moroccan medical flight the next day thinking he
would be taken to Conakry, according to the cables, which were posted
by WikiLeaks on Dec. 4. Instead he was flown to Burkina Faso, where he
remains.

“It will be better for Guinea if he does not return,” Moller wrote in
the Dec. 22, 2009, cable. “His erratic, violent and unpredictable
behavior and his similarly rapacious and unstable cronies only
foretell a sad future for Guinea.”

Guinea was fracturing along ethnic lines, a U.S. diplomat in Rabat was
told by an unidentified person, Camara had hired South African and
Israeli mercenaries and his militia, numbering 2,000 to 3,000 men,
posed a threat to regional security, according to a Dec. 17 cable.

While the U.S. and France backed Konate, Compaore and the Moroccans
were reluctant to embrace him as Camara’s successor. Konate, who led
the country through elections last month as interim president, was
viewed by Moroccan officials as a “drunkard” and “weak,” according to
cables sent from Rabat by Deputy Chief of Mission Robert Jackson on
Dec. 17 and Dec. 31, 2009. The U.S. Embassy in Morocco observed that
Konate “suffered from liver problems consistent with his intake of
large amounts of alcohol,” according to the Dec. 31 document.

As Camara was readying to depart Morocco, the U.S. and France asked
the Moroccans not to allow him to leave on a plane rented by some of
his supporters in Guinea to return him to Conakry, the document
showed.The Moroccans, with no legal basis to hold Camara and anxious
to be rid of him before the United Nations Security Council considered
a report on his involvement in the September killings, put him on a
medical plane bound for Burkina Faso. “Dadis reportedly thought he was
going to Conakry and was calm,” according to the Jan. 15 cable from
the U.S. Embassy in Morocco.

Alpha Conde, a former political science professor, won Guinea’s Nov. 7
presidential run-off election, an announcement which led to an
outbreak of ethnic violence in Conakry. Tensions have eased since his
opponent, Cellou Dalein Diallo, conceded defeat on Dec. 3.

read more


Johannesburg: A magnet for millions, but not yet a truly world city The Guardian
Africa


There was turkey, there was ham, there was creamed spinach, there was
stuffing and there was macaroni and cheese.

On a balmy evening, we sat around a long table overlooking a garden
and a swimming pool. Thanksgiving dinner, that most American of
rituals, had come to Johannesburg in South Africa.

I was the sole Brit among a dozen US expats – my accent had never
sounded so Monty Python – and joined in the talk of iPods and iPads,
Barack Obama's prospects in 2012 and the struggle to find meat, fish
and yoghurt in Johannesburg that can match that in the US, the
consumer capital of the world.

While other foreign ambassadors keep a low profile in Pretoria,
America's Donald Gips can be found writing newspaper columns and
giving interviews. His officials are seen at public events, posting
messages on Twitter and discussing WikiLeaks on radio and television.
[I met him and his Name is Donald Gibbs - when I was in Johannesburg]

read more


Ghana All Share Bloomberg Visual +31.056% 2010
Africa

Value7,136.19   
Change13.230    
% Change0.186

Conclusions

The Chart Pattern I am seeing has practically always presaged a Break
Out and hence I am very Bullish on this Index.

read more


Hague-bound suspects’ names out on Wednesday Nation
Law & Politics


The names of suspects going to the Hague will be known on Wednesday.

read more


US embassy cables: US pushes for political reform in Kenya The Guardian
Law & Politics

Tuesday, 12 January 2010, 15:13
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000059
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
FOR A/S CARSON AND NSC SENIOR DIRECTOR GAVIN FROM THE AMBASSADOR
EO 12958 DECL: 2020/01/12
TAGS PREL, PGOV, KCOR, KE
SUBJECT: U.S. POLICY TO ADVANCE THE REFORM AGENDA
REF: 09 NAIROBI 1811; 10 NAIROBI 31; 10 NAIROBI 50; 10 NAIROBI 11 09
NAIROBI 2485; 09 NAIROBI 2483; 09 NAIROBI 2475; 09 NAIROBI 2401
CLASSIFIED BY: Michael E. Ranneberger, Ambassador, DOS, EXEC; REASON:
1.4(B), (D)

1. (C) Summary: Our highest priority efforts are focused on advancing
implementation of the reform agenda, which is key to the future
democratic stability and prosperity of Kenya. While some positive
reform steps have been taken, the old guard associated with the
culture of impunity continues to resist fundamental change. Most key
reforms are yet to be carried out, and the future of the
constitutional review process is uncertain. We are employing public
and private pressure, engaging broadly with the senior-most levels of
the government and other political actors, and reaching out
extensively to the Kenyan people, youth, civil society, the media, the
private sector, and religious groups. We also laying out incentives
for positive action on reforms and supporting significant steps when
they are taken. Continued intensive U.S. efforts - using our unique
influence in Kenya - is essential to propel implementation of the
reform agenda. U.S. efforts are viewed very favorably by the Kenyan
people and are helping generate increased domestic-driven pressure for
reforms. This message discusses the current state of play, the
dynamics affecting the reform agenda, and U.S. policy and actions. End
summary.

--------------------------------------------- --------------------

U.S. Policy and Central Importance of Reform Agenda

--------------------------------------------- --------------------

2. (C) Advancing implementation of the reform agenda is the central
objective of U.S. policy in Kenya. Achieving this is key to ensure the
future democratic stability and prosperity of Kenya, a strategically
important partner of the United States. Failure to implement
significant reforms will greatly enhance prospects for a violent
crisis in 2012 or before - which might well prove much worse than the
last post-election crisis. Bringing about implementation of the reform
agenda poses a large challenge because doing so threatens the culture
of impunity and the entrenched political class that has existed in
Kenya since independence. Most of the political and economic elite (to
greater and lesser extents) compose the vested interests that benefit
from and support impunity and the lack of accountability with respect
to governance, state resources, and the rule of law. This includes
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga, who signed the coalition
agreement, as well as most of the members of the Cabinet and leaders
of the political parties.

3. (C) That said, there are dynamics at play which create an historic
opportunity to achieve progress. First, the unprecedented
post-election crisis jolted the Kenyan people and led to a broad
appreciation, domestically and internationally, that some changes must
be made to avoid such a crisis - or worse - in the future. Second,
demographic pressures and generational change are having a marked
impact, with youth increasingly assertive about the need for reforms.
Third, and very importantly, the United States has enormous, unique
leverage with the Kenyan people and government. Fourth, Kofi Annan on
behalf of the African Union and group of eminent personalities remains
intensively engaged. Fifth, there is more democratic space in Kenya
than ever before, with a very active civil society, a vibrant media, a
savvy private sector, and active religious groups. Sixth, Kenya's
leaders are ultimately practical politicians whose desire for
self-preservation means they are responsive to some degree to intense
international and domestic pressure.

------------------------

Some Positive Steps

------------------------

4. (C) As we have reported, the coalition government has demonstrated
some progress on reforms in the past two years due to all of the
dynamics delineated above - but particularly as a result of the
continuing role being played by Annan and especially U.S. pressure. At
a time when most observers were cynically saying that Police
Commissioner Ali would never be removed, he was. Following the
imposition of our travel ban on Attorney General Wako, he started
talking about "retirement" (before the middle of this year, he says).
The government has launched police reform. A new Interim

NAIROBI 00000059 002 OF 004

Independent Electoral Commission is up and running, and the Truth,
Justice, and Reconciliation Commission will soon begin its work.
XXXXXXXXXXXX An anti-money laundering bill (which we have been heavily
lobbying for) was recently passed and signed into law. The
constitutional review process is underway.

--------------------------------------------- ----------------

Culture of Impunity Works to Forestall Fundamental Reform

--------------------------------------------- ----------------

5. (C) These are positive achievements, but most are only first steps.
Those associated with the culture of impunity are working hard to
limit the impact of steps taken so that they do not lead to truly
fundamental reform that would threaten vested interests. Removals of
key individuals, while in themselves significant, must be followed by
real institutional reform. Several examples demonstrate the
substantial challenges in bringing about institutional reform. Example
1: XXXXXXXXXXXX who blocks progress on high-level investigations and
has ties directly to State House XXXXXXXXXXXX. The committee which
considered replacements for XXXXXXXXXXXX picked someone who is a
lightning rod to the vested interests and who is unlikely to be
approved by Parliament, XXXXXXXXXXXX. Example 2: the process of police
reform has been launched with great fanfare, but oversight of the
process is questionable. The governmentXXXXXXXXXXXX is allegedly
closely associated with the "kwe kwe" death squad responsible for
extrajudicial killings. These examples are simply a few of many which
demonstrate how the "culture of impunity" is, in effect, an informal
system of governance that co-opts and/or forces others to participate
or perish. To put it another way, the political elite are planning
several chess moves ahead. While we are no mean chess players
ourselves, it is very difficult to anticipate their next move or the
motives behind "reform" steps.

------------------------------------

Key Reforms Not Yet Undertaken

------------------------------------

6. (C) Thus, while some initial progress has been made, the reforms
needed to bring about fundamental change have not yet been achieved.
No significant steps have been taken against high-level corruption,
which remains rampant. No significant reform of the judicial or
Attorney General's office has been undertaken. No steps have been
taken to hold accountable perpetrators of post-election violence.
Police reform remains an open question. Little has been done by the
coalition government to foster national reconciliation and cohesion.
The most important issue on the reform agenda is constitutional review
(see ref B and previous reporting), but prospects for success of this
are problematic. While constitutional revision must be accompanied by
the other reforms, without constitutional revision the other reforms
will not be sufficient to ensure future stability.

--------------------------------------------- -----

Positive Impact of U.S. Policy and Actions

--------------------------------------------- -----

7. (C) Though daunting, key elements of the reform agenda are
achievable. Consistent and intense U.S. pressure and support -
privately and publicly - stands a reasonable chance to achieve
substantial progress on implementation. Part of this effort involves
helping to empower a new generation of leaders and leveraging the old
guard to implement at least some key elements of the reform agenda. We
are thus engaged in a well-coordinated intensive effort along the
following lines: First, we are engaged in intensive private contacts
with the full array of key actors, from Kibaki and Odinga on down.
Second, we are engaged in

NAIROBI 00000059 003 OF 004

extensive outreach to civil society, religious groups, the media, and
the private sector to urge more concerted efforts to press for
implementation of the reform agenda. Third, we are reaching out
vigorously to the Kenyan people to encourage dialogue, reconciliation,
and peaceful advocacy for implementation of reforms. Fourth, we are
engaged in targeted outreach and support for youth to empower them to
participate more effectively to press for implementation of reforms
and to help escape the cycle of poverty which facilitates their
manipulation by the political elite. Fifth, we are supporting
reform-minded parliamentarians. Finally, as part of our overall
approach, we are laying out incentives, providing concrete support for
implementation of reforms, and deploying specific pressure publicly
and privately.

8. (C) We are coordinating this intensive push on the reform agenda
through an inter-agency Mission Task Force. The Task Force, which I
chair twice weekly, ensures that U.S. efforts are coordinated,
complementary, and sustained. We are, for example, providing expertise
to the constitution revision Committee of Experts, and are working
with the Interim Electoral Commission on parameters for providing $1.5
million in technical assistance. We are working closely with the
Minister of Security on ways to support real police reform,
particularly the establishment of internal and external oversight
mechanisms. We are providing technical and expert assistance to the
Parliamentary Reform Caucus, which was established with our
encouragement. We have just dispatched a delegation of civil society
and youth leaders to Washington, and we are coordinating dates for the
visit of a Parliamentary Reform Caucus delegation in February. Support
from AID's Office of Transition Initiatives, coupled with public
outreach, are having a dramatic impact in expanding the role of
grassroots youth organizations to promote inter-ethnic dialogue and
peaceful pressure for implementation of reforms. We recently launched
a $45 million youth empowerment initiative. Actual travel bans and the
threat to impose more are key elements of pressure that provide
tangible evidence to corrupt anti-reform elites and to the Kenyan
people that the USG will not do business as usual absent real change.

9. (C) This multi-faceted approach is having a marked impact among the
Kenyan people and politicians. The U.S. push for reform is clearly
viewed positively by the Kenyan people. The coalition leadership and
Kenyan elite recognize the central importance of the U.S., know that
the U.S. stance is viewed positively by the Kenyan people, and realize
that they cannot ignore U.S. pressure. The quick impact which the
Secretary's recent calls had (see ref B) is one indication of this.
Another is that the parliamentary reform caucus, which started with
just 20 members, has grown to over 60. Another smaller but very
telling indication is that senior politicians have recently starting
consulting leaders of the grassroots youth organizations which we are
supporting. Members of Parliament have started talking with them and
Prime Minister Odinga called one of the youth leaders before he
departed with the civil society delegation to Washington.

10. (C) While the culture of impunity and the grip of the old guard
political elite on the levers of state power and resources remain
largely intact, hairline fractures are developing in their edifice
which - if we continue to work them intensively - will develop into
broader fractures and open up the potential for a peaceful process of
implementation of fundamental reforms. Although being realistic about
what is achievable, we should not set our sights too low. With a
strong, consistent, and concerted effort, much can be accomplished. By
burrowing into the process and using concrete support as leverage,
significant police reform can be carried out. Providing support for
witness protection will significantly improve the odds that the
International Criminal Court will be able to indict several key
suspects of post-election violence. Such indictments, particularly if
they are public, would be a major blow to the culture of impunity and
likely help alter political dynamics in a positive way. Most
importantly, intensive U.S. engagement can improve prospects for
successful conclusion of the constitutional revision process (the sine
qua non of the reform agenda). Much else can be accomplished as well,
but taken together these steps would constitute major progress and
would greatly enhance prospects for future democratic stability and
prosperity.

11. (C) U.S. efforts are also contributing to something less tangible
but equally important: a dynamic of change percolating throughout
Kenya. We are hearing from many, many sources that our outreach
efforts are encouraging and emboldening ordinary Kenyans to speak out
in favor of change. The old guard of vested interests knows that we
and others within Kenya are fanning the winds of change - always
stressing the need to work peacefully within the democratic process --
and feels threatened by that, but they also realize that they must
somehow come to grips with it. The old

NAIROBI 00000059 004 OF 004

guard's strategy is to do just enough to placate the people, Annan,
and us, while trying to avoid fundamental change in the system.
However, there is a real possibility that, as they seek to walk this
fine line, the flood gates of change will open, or that at least the
change will end up being more far-reaching than they envisaged. The
sharp reaction of the old guard to our efforts and growing domestic
pressure indicates that the culture of impunity system is not as
strong as it may seem on the surface.

12. (C) In essence, we are on the right track. Obtaining further,
decisive progress will require sustained, intensive high-level U.S.
engagement and, as we have requested, additional resources in some
areas as well. We are proceeding with a realistic appreciation of the
challenge of bringing about fundamental change, but also with a
cautiously optimistic appreciation that much is possible, and that
positive engagement can make it happen. RANNEBERGER

Conclusions

Reading these Cables and I have to admit that they counterintuitively
attest to his and His Government Bona Fides.



read more


Paul Kavuma, head of Catalyst Principal Partners.Reuters
World Of Finance

Private equity firms are setting up shop in east Africa attracted by a
growing young and urban population, but also by better political
stability and sounder macroeconomic management, the manager of one
fund said.Regional integration by at least five east Africa nations,
natural gas production in Tanzania, an oil find in Uganda and the
hydro-electric potential in Ethiopia were also beckoning, said Paul
Kavuma, head of Catalyst Principal Partners.

"In the last two years, there's been a lot more activity. We are
beginning to see a number of international or pan-African players
beginning to take a real interest in East Africa," Kavuma told Reuters
in Nairobi.

"And its not a coincidence. There are a lot of positive trends we are
seeing in east Africa."

There were only two players in the market when Kavuma joined the
private equity industry in Nairobi six years ago.

African Venture Capital Association now lists 26 private equity
venture capital fund managers investing in east Africa.

The firm will launch a $100 million Catalyst Fund I in January for
opportunities in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Democratic Republic
of Congo, Ethiopia and Zambia with a core focus on the consumer,
services and industrial sectors.It has 70 percent of the amount and
Kavuma said the remaining amount would be in place in the first
quarter of 2011.The fund will have a life of five years and Catalyst
will offload by either listing or trading its stake to any interested
parties. It has a target of a 20-25 percent return.

"We are seeing increasing trade interest -- multinationals, Indian,
South African, West African corporates all looking for acquisitions in
financial services, communications and other sectors, which provides
further confidence about exit by private equity investors," he said.

"It is a virtuous circle of positive things which is making it a much
more attractive proposition."

The firm will make its first investment soon after the fund's launch,
in a consumer goods company, Kavuma said.

Catalyst Principal will be injecting around $7 million for the deal in
excess $50 million that it has with two other institutions.

"We have got a strong pipeline of investors across multiple sectors,"
Kavuma said.

The fund will be deployed within three to four years and diversified
so that not more than 25 percent will go into one sector, and only up
to 15 percent for any one company.

"There's limits on countries just to make sure that we have a fully
diversified portfolio of 10 or so investments," he said.

Kavuma said there is always some anxiety on the issue of political
succession in each of the country the fund will invest in but that
things had improved over the last two decades.

"Forget the latest newspaper headlines today, let's go back 10 years
ago. Has the political environment improved or has it regressed in the
last 10 years?" he said.

"The changes are actually fundamental and irreversible in my view. One
cannot help but be generally bullish on the long term prospects for
the region. The facts speak volumes."

Conclusions

A Friend from Kenton College and then all these Years later on the
same Floor and three Offices down.

read more


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg Visual +36.31% 2010
N.S.E General

Value78.91   
Change0.230    
% Change0.292

Conclusions

We have retreated 8.594% from the 2010 High and The Bull Market
remains in tact.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share eased 0.24 points to close at 97.51.
The NSE20 pushed 11.47 points higher to close at 4383.36.
Market Cap was 1.163266 Trillion versus 1.166115 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was considerably slacker at 205.238m versus 489.717m last time.
Safaricom has bounced 3.25% higher in the last 2 Sessions. Equity Bank
was weak today closing 2.94% lower and Access Kenya hit a new 52 week
Closing Low. KPLC Rights got slammed 27.586% lower.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea firmed 1.56% to close at 13.00. Sasini Tea traded a
12.95-13.20 range and trades on a Price Earnings of 3.00.
Kakuzi closed at 78.00 and traded 3,000 shares. Kakuzi trades on a PE of 4.498.
Rea Vipingo traded 500 shares all at 15.50 and unchanged.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     8,116,000
total turnover     38,149,404
avg price     4.70 CLOSING PRICE 4.70 +1.08%
high price     4.75
low price     4.60
last price     4.75

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 2nd and followed yesterdays 2.02% gain with a 1.08%
gain today to close at 4.70 and was trading 4.75 +2.15% into the
Finale. Safaricom finally came off its steeply 'Oversold' level of
4.50 this week and trades on a Trailing Price Earnings of 12.00. It
has all the [price War] News baked into the Price good.

Access Kenya fell 3.87% to close at a New 52 week Low of 14.90. Access
Kenya is -24.204% now over a 1 Year Period and traded shares as low as
14.10 -9.03%. Access Kenya traded 29,900 shares.

Kenya Airways eased 1.63% to close at 45.25 and traded 27,200 shares.

ScanGroup was unchanged at 60.00 and traded 35,900 shares.

TPS Serena was unchanged at 68.00 with 24,300 shares changing hands.

CMC Holdings firmed 5 cents to close at 12.15 and traded 34,000 shares.
Cargen eased 2.08% to close at 47.00 and traded 500 shares.

Nation improved a shilling to close at 159.00 and traded 1,100 shares.
Standard was marked down 3.37% to close at 43.00 and traded 35,800 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

KCB firmed 1.15% to close at 22.00 and traded a 21.75-22.50 range and
492,700 shares with Demand On the Board for 2.749m shares at the
Close. KCB trades on a Forward PE Multiple of 8.00 and will target
30.00-32.00 coincident with the Release of the Full Year Results.
COOP Bank was the most active share at the NSE and traded 3.043m
shares worth 57.962m and closed unchanged at 19.05. COOP Bank has done
a great deal of work and volume at these levels. COOP Bank has posted
a 115.522% 1 Year Return and trades on a 22.475 Trailing PE Multiple.
StanChart eased 0.78% to close at 256.00 and traded a 255.00-258.00
range and 54,400 shares worth 13.979m.
Barclays Bank eased 0.83% to close at 60.00 and traded 23,300 shares.
Barclays trades on a Trailing PE of 13.376 and has posted a 44.112% 1
Year Return but eased of 70.00 Highs from 15th July.
Equity Bank fell 2.94% to close at 24.75 and traded a 24.50-25.25
range and 292,800 shares. Equity Bank is +86.637% over a 1 Year Period
and has retreated 10.81% off its 2010 High of 27.75 dated 12th
October.

Centum fell 1.113% to close at 21.75 and traded 388,800 shares. Centum
has underwritten the KPLC Rights Issue with Equity Bank and recent
price weakness might be related to that. Centum is up 107.43% over a 1
Year Period and is 16.346% below its 2010 High of 26.00.

Kenya Re slumped 7.421% to close at 11.85 and traded 76,900 shares.
Jubilee traded 1,200 shares and closed at 185.00.
PanAfric did not trade.

HFCK slipped 2.06% to close at 24.25 and traded 89,600 shares.
NBK closed 1.935% lower at 38.00 and traded 52,300 shares.
NIC shaved off 50 cents to close at 48.50 and traded 12,100 shares.
DTB was unchanged at 133.00 and traded 41,700 shares.
CFC StanBic traded 1,100 shares and closed a shilling lower at 77.00.

Olympia Capital traded 22,900 shares and closed at 6.10.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Kenya Power Ordinary shares eased back 1.085% to close at 22.75 and
traded 3rd with 645,800 shares worth 14.756m changing hands.
Renaissance Capital [The Folks 2 Floors below Mine] upgraded KPLC to
'buy' and set a price target of 41 shillings per share for the
monopoly utility, which is restructuring its capital base. Renaissance
said that "We see KPLC as an established, effective infrastructure
company, operating on a small scale -- typical for a frontier economy
-- but with sound prospects for growth." "Valuing KPLC ... we derive a
target price of 41 shillings/share, 78 percent above the current share
price. We therefore re-initiate coverage of KPLC with a BUY rating."
Thats a very Bold Call.

Kenya Power all Relevant Announcements share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/BLiwX

KPLC Rights got slammed 27.586% lower to close at 2.10 and traded a
2.00-3.50 range and 4.69m times.
KenGen eased 5 cents to close at 17.00 and traded 314,900 shares.
Cables closed at 16.00 -1.23%.

Sameer rallied 6.504% to close at 6.55 and traded 72,800 shares.

Mumias Sugar firmed 0.505% to close at 9.75 and traded 1.2m shares.
The PE has a 9.00 handle and Buyers are beginning to step up now.

EABL closed 0.485% stronger at 207.00 and traded 40,200 shares. EABL
traded a Fresh All Time High of 226.00 some 15 Sessions ago and
appears to have based out above 200.00 after a Retreat and that will
look constructive on the charts.

Unga traded 128,900 shares and firmed 1.851% to close at 11.00.

KenolKobil was unchanged at 9.95 and traded 92,300 shares.
Total traded 32,000 shares and closed lower at 28.00.

Eveready closed 3.27% lower at 2.95 and traded 19,500 shares.

ARM was unchanged at 172.00 and traded 11,500 shares.
Bamburi Cement and Portland did not trade.

Crown Berger closed lower at 31.00 and traded 8,000 shares.
BAT did not trade.
Carbacid was marked down 2 shillings to close at 145.00 and traded 2,100 shares.
BOC Gases did not trade.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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