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Friday 10th of December 2010 |
Morning Africa |
www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
Bob Collymore CEO Safaricom at #Mindspeak RICH TV http://bit.ly/1mPS6v
Search #Mindspeak on www.twitter.com
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php
Kenya Economic Update KEU Edition 3 The Tipping Point http://bit.ly/exqFwJ
Financial Times Kenya Special http://bit.ly/eE6lTu
My Weekly Piece for The #Star The Cream always rises to the Top The New Age of #Meritocracy http://bit.ly/fcAVB3
I have a manic Day today. Am Presenting about Start Ups at @Africagathering at the IHUB and am going to start that Presentation by playing The Rolling Stones Start Me Up http://bit.ly/eA23yj Then I have Lunch at the Norfolk with Murray Grant of Actis and then a Walk in the Street and Talk Interview with the BBC World Service.
Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts
I am so looking forward to our Road Trip through Tsavo via Finch Hattons and then down to Mombasa and up and down the Coast. Hannah tells me that when she grows up She wants to emigrate to Mombasa. She, unlike her Older Sisters, was born there, by the Sea in the Mombasa Hospital. And is very Fond of her GrandFather [who lives there] as are her Older Sisters. I was reading up about Finch Hatton again and one of his Favourite Places on the Coast was Takaungu.
Takaungu The New York Times 1986 http://nyti.ms/gC0fiZ
Then comes the coast and Takaungu, the house Denys Finch Hatton built. It has changed ownership several times and is seldom occupied. From its tiny veranda, the scenery is still as Karen Blixen described it, ''of a divine, clean, barren marine greatness, with the blue Indian Ocean before you, the deep creek of Takaunga (sic) to the south. . . .'' When the tide is out you can still ''walk miles away seawards from the house, as on a tremendous, somewhat unevenly paved piazza, picking up strange long peaked shells and starfish.''
One can read from the book here and know how utterly unchanged the place is; the water on the incoming tide sighs in the caves as she described it. Behind the house is the weathered ruin of an Arab mosque so thickly enshrouded in creeper that unless one knew it was there, one would not suspect its existence. The dhows that she wrote about still can be spotted beyond the reef, as they come in annually on the kaskasi, the monsoon that has blown them on their trading course from the Persian Gulf to East Africa.
There, too, she sat with Denys Finch Hatton one New Year's watching the new moon and the planets Venus and Jupiter ''all close together, in a group on the sky; it was such a radiant sight that you could hardly believe it to be real, and I have never seen it again.''
We stopped One Evening on the way back from Malindi, It was a mysterious Place I have to admit in that Dusk light.
Takaungu Google Image Search http://bit.ly/hAhjhN |
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Julian Assange, Information Anarchist WSJ Law & Politics |
In 2006, Mr. Assange wrote a pair of essays, "State and Terrorist Conspiracies" and "Conspiracy as Governance." He sees the U.S. as an authoritarian conspiracy. "To radically shift regime behavior we must think clearly and boldly for if we have learned anything, it is that regimes do not want to be changed," he writes. "Conspiracies take information about the world in which they operate," he writes, and "pass it around the conspirators and then act on the result."
His central plan is that leaks will restrict the flow of information among officials—"conspirators" in his view—making government less effective. Or, as Mr. Assange puts it, "We can marginalize a conspiracy's ability to act by decreasing total conspiratorial power until it is no longer able to understand, and hence respond effectively to its environment. . . . An authoritarian conspiracy that cannot think efficiently cannot act to preserve itself."
Berkeley blogger Aaron Bady last week posted a useful translation of these essays. He explains Mr. Assange's view this way: "While an organization structured by direct and open lines of communication will be much more vulnerable to outside penetration, the more opaque it becomes to itself (as a defense against the outside gaze), the less able it will be to 'think' as a system, to communicate with itself." Mr. Assange's idea is that with enough leaks, "the security state will then try to shrink its computational network in response, thereby making itself dumber and slower and smaller."
Or as Mr. Assange told Time magazine last week, "It is not our goal to achieve a more transparent society; it's our goal to achieve a more just society." If leaks cause U.S. officials to "lock down internally and to balkanize," they will "cease to be as efficient as they were."
Conclusions
The Delicious Irony he has effectively posed is the absolute Uselessness of Holding His Person in Custody.
What is the Point?
Its very Sun Tzu. |
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US Bond Markets at a Glance WSJ World Of Finance |
1-Month Bill* 0/32 0.086 3-Month Bill* 0/32 0.142 6-Month Bill* -0/32 0.183 1-Year Note* 0/32 0.273 2-Year Note* 0/32 0.628 3-Year Note* 0/32 0.996 5-Year Note* -2/32 1.896 7-Year Note* 5/32 2.611 10-Year Note* 17/32 3.208 30-Year Bond* 28/32 4.404
The Treasury Department sold $13 billion in 30-year bonds in Thursday at a yield of 4.41%, lower than traders expected. |
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World Equity Markets At A Glance World Of Finance |
In a notable move, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 7.51, or 0.29%, to 2616.67, its highest close since Dec. 31, 2007. Thursday represented its seventh-straight day in the black, marking the measure's longest winning streak since October. |
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Postcard from China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region Photo Booth New Yorker China |
Last night, over the happy-hour din at the Half King, the talented and ever-so-humble Carolyn Drake shared her pictures with a room packed full of photographers and attentive fans. Though Drake discussed her ongoing project on the former ’stans, the focus of the evening was her work on the Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic minority on the edges of the Taklamakan Desert in Western China. In recent years, Drake explained, millions of Han Chinese have migrated into Uighur territory, bringing an influx of infrastructure, government, and pursuit of natural resources. In images that are beautiful, subtle, and unexpected, Drake’s series, “Becoming Chinese,” documents the slow demise of the Uighur’s ancient culture.
1. A Han Chinese oil worker passes the front of a “beauty salon” near the Tazhong oil fields in the middle of the Taklamakan Desert while sex workers wait for clients. Uighurs are banned from working in the Tazhong oil fields.
2. A slab of meat hangs from the ceiling, amid textiles and rugs, in a rural Uighur farmhouse. |
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Nigeria leader had doubts over poll bid: WikiLeaks Reuters Law & Politics |
Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan had doubts this year about whether he would stand in elections next April, saying his focus was organising credible polls, according to a leaked U.S. diplomatic cable.The cable, obtained by WikiLeaks and published by Britain's Guardian newspaper, says Jonathan told then-U.S. Ambassador Robin Sanders in February that he would only consider running if and when those around him sought to persuade him to do so.
"Jonathan said he does not anticipate standing for elections in 2011 and that he is not working towards a presidential candidacy. He wants to put into place an electoral structure that will be ready for national elections," the cable said, referring to a February 26 meeting with Jonathan.
"He did, however, note that 'if they want me to run, that will be something to consider at that time'," it said.
Jonathan was acting president of Africa's most populous nation at the time of the meeting with Sanders.
President Umaru Yar'Adua was in a "semi-comatose" state, according to the cable, and had just been flown back from treatment in Saudi Arabia. A cabal led by his wife Turai was trying to maintain a grip on power, the documents said.
Jonathan's office played down the remarks.
"At the time he made those statements, he was acting president. He cannot say he is going to run when the president is still alive," Ken Saro-Wiwa, Jonathan's special assistant on international affairs, told Reuters.
Jonathan was sworn in on May 6 after Yar'Adua died.
He has since announced his candidacy for 2011, but faces a tough battle securing the ruling party nomination because of a pact in the party that power rotates every two terms between the mostly-Muslim north and largely Christian south.History has always favoured the incumbent, but Jonathan faces a challenge for the ruling party ticket from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, selected by a group of influential northern politicians as a rival consensus candidate.The cable said Jonathan noted that northern politicians "would always be uncomfortable with him as president" and that he understood he had originally been chosen as Yar'Adua's vice president because he represented the restive Niger Delta.
"I was not chosen to be Vice President because I had good political experience ... I did not. There were a lot more qualified people around to be Vice President, but that does not mean I am not my own man," he was quoted as saying.
The cable said the U.S. government advised Jonathan to assert himself as a national figure rather than a regional one, and to assert his independence from former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a powerful background figure in the ruling party.
But the U.S. welcomed Jonathan's apparently sincere desire to overhaul the electoral system and ensure credible polls in 2011. Previous elections in the West African country have been marred by voter intimidation and ballot-stuffing.
"It is always hard to judge how someone will behave (or surprise you) when leadership is unexpectedly thrown in their lap," the February cable said.
"The verdict is out on Jonathan, and his previously underwhelming personality and performance needs to keep us in the cautious lane, but so far, so good."
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Guinean Junta Leader Camara Blocked From Power by U.S., Allies Bloomberg Law & Politics |
The U.S., France and Morocco maneuvered to keep former Guinean junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara out of power after an assassination attempt last year, according to U.S. diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks.
The cables are part of a trove of 250,000 classified State Department documents obtained by WikiLeaks and published online. They provide details of the extent to which the U.S., Morocco and former colonial power France viewed Camara as a threat to peace in Guinea and tried to stop him from returning to the country.
Camara was “widely regarded as deranged and drug-addled,” wrotePatricia Moller, U.S. ambassador to Guinea, in a Dec. 22, 2009, cable. The 46-year-old army captain had taken power in the ethnically divided West African nation in December 2008 following the death of President Lansana Conte, promising to hold elections after a two-year transitional period.Ten months later, security forces loyal to Camara killed at least 150 anti-junta protesters in the capital, Conakry, and raped dozens of women in a premeditated attack, according to Human Rights Watch, the New York-based advocacy group.
Guinea holds as much as half the world’s reserves of bauxite, an ore used to make aluminum, more than 4 billion metric tons of “high-grade” iron ore and “significant” deposits of diamonds and gold, according to the State Department. Three of its neighbors -- Sierra Leone, Liberia and Ivory Coast -- have experienced civil wars in the past 10 years.
In the weeks after the September 2009 killings, the U.S., the African Union and France imposed sanctions on the junta, including travel restrictions and the freezing of bank accounts. On Dec. 3, 2009, one of Camara’s deputies shot him in the head.Camara was flown to Morocco, where he arrived in a coma, before doctors removed bullet fragments from his skull. By January, Moroccan Foreign Minister Taieb Fassi Fihri told U.S. diplomats Camara had “regained 80 percent of his faculties, but has difficulty putting more than five words together without 30- second pauses before the next phrase or sentence,” according to a Jan. 8 cable from Samuel Kaplan, the U.S. ambassador to Morocco.A month after the assassination attempt, Camara was ready to return home “to cut off hands and heads” to restore his rule, according to a Jan. 15 cable detailing remarks by Fihri to U.S. diplomats.
Camara was put on a Moroccan medical flight the next day thinking he would be taken to Conakry, according to the cables, which were posted by WikiLeaks on Dec. 4. Instead he was flown to Burkina Faso, where he remains.
“It will be better for Guinea if he does not return,” Moller wrote in the Dec. 22, 2009, cable. “His erratic, violent and unpredictable behavior and his similarly rapacious and unstable cronies only foretell a sad future for Guinea.”
Guinea was fracturing along ethnic lines, a U.S. diplomat in Rabat was told by an unidentified person, Camara had hired South African and Israeli mercenaries and his militia, numbering 2,000 to 3,000 men, posed a threat to regional security, according to a Dec. 17 cable.
While the U.S. and France backed Konate, Compaore and the Moroccans were reluctant to embrace him as Camara’s successor. Konate, who led the country through elections last month as interim president, was viewed by Moroccan officials as a “drunkard” and “weak,” according to cables sent from Rabat by Deputy Chief of Mission Robert Jackson on Dec. 17 and Dec. 31, 2009. The U.S. Embassy in Morocco observed that Konate “suffered from liver problems consistent with his intake of large amounts of alcohol,” according to the Dec. 31 document.
As Camara was readying to depart Morocco, the U.S. and France asked the Moroccans not to allow him to leave on a plane rented by some of his supporters in Guinea to return him to Conakry, the document showed.The Moroccans, with no legal basis to hold Camara and anxious to be rid of him before the United Nations Security Council considered a report on his involvement in the September killings, put him on a medical plane bound for Burkina Faso. “Dadis reportedly thought he was going to Conakry and was calm,” according to the Jan. 15 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Morocco.
Alpha Conde, a former political science professor, won Guinea’s Nov. 7 presidential run-off election, an announcement which led to an outbreak of ethnic violence in Conakry. Tensions have eased since his opponent, Cellou Dalein Diallo, conceded defeat on Dec. 3. |
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Johannesburg: A magnet for millions, but not yet a truly world city The Guardian Africa |
There was turkey, there was ham, there was creamed spinach, there was stuffing and there was macaroni and cheese.
On a balmy evening, we sat around a long table overlooking a garden and a swimming pool. Thanksgiving dinner, that most American of rituals, had come to Johannesburg in South Africa.
I was the sole Brit among a dozen US expats – my accent had never sounded so Monty Python – and joined in the talk of iPods and iPads, Barack Obama's prospects in 2012 and the struggle to find meat, fish and yoghurt in Johannesburg that can match that in the US, the consumer capital of the world.
While other foreign ambassadors keep a low profile in Pretoria, America's Donald Gips can be found writing newspaper columns and giving interviews. His officials are seen at public events, posting messages on Twitter and discussing WikiLeaks on radio and television. [I met him and his Name is Donald Gibbs - when I was in Johannesburg]
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US embassy cables: US pushes for political reform in Kenya The Guardian Law & Politics |
Tuesday, 12 January 2010, 15:13 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000059 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR A/S CARSON AND NSC SENIOR DIRECTOR GAVIN FROM THE AMBASSADOR EO 12958 DECL: 2020/01/12 TAGS PREL, PGOV, KCOR, KE SUBJECT: U.S. POLICY TO ADVANCE THE REFORM AGENDA REF: 09 NAIROBI 1811; 10 NAIROBI 31; 10 NAIROBI 50; 10 NAIROBI 11 09 NAIROBI 2485; 09 NAIROBI 2483; 09 NAIROBI 2475; 09 NAIROBI 2401 CLASSIFIED BY: Michael E. Ranneberger, Ambassador, DOS, EXEC; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
1. (C) Summary: Our highest priority efforts are focused on advancing implementation of the reform agenda, which is key to the future democratic stability and prosperity of Kenya. While some positive reform steps have been taken, the old guard associated with the culture of impunity continues to resist fundamental change. Most key reforms are yet to be carried out, and the future of the constitutional review process is uncertain. We are employing public and private pressure, engaging broadly with the senior-most levels of the government and other political actors, and reaching out extensively to the Kenyan people, youth, civil society, the media, the private sector, and religious groups. We also laying out incentives for positive action on reforms and supporting significant steps when they are taken. Continued intensive U.S. efforts - using our unique influence in Kenya - is essential to propel implementation of the reform agenda. U.S. efforts are viewed very favorably by the Kenyan people and are helping generate increased domestic-driven pressure for reforms. This message discusses the current state of play, the dynamics affecting the reform agenda, and U.S. policy and actions. End summary.
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U.S. Policy and Central Importance of Reform Agenda
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2. (C) Advancing implementation of the reform agenda is the central objective of U.S. policy in Kenya. Achieving this is key to ensure the future democratic stability and prosperity of Kenya, a strategically important partner of the United States. Failure to implement significant reforms will greatly enhance prospects for a violent crisis in 2012 or before - which might well prove much worse than the last post-election crisis. Bringing about implementation of the reform agenda poses a large challenge because doing so threatens the culture of impunity and the entrenched political class that has existed in Kenya since independence. Most of the political and economic elite (to greater and lesser extents) compose the vested interests that benefit from and support impunity and the lack of accountability with respect to governance, state resources, and the rule of law. This includes President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga, who signed the coalition agreement, as well as most of the members of the Cabinet and leaders of the political parties.
3. (C) That said, there are dynamics at play which create an historic opportunity to achieve progress. First, the unprecedented post-election crisis jolted the Kenyan people and led to a broad appreciation, domestically and internationally, that some changes must be made to avoid such a crisis - or worse - in the future. Second, demographic pressures and generational change are having a marked impact, with youth increasingly assertive about the need for reforms. Third, and very importantly, the United States has enormous, unique leverage with the Kenyan people and government. Fourth, Kofi Annan on behalf of the African Union and group of eminent personalities remains intensively engaged. Fifth, there is more democratic space in Kenya than ever before, with a very active civil society, a vibrant media, a savvy private sector, and active religious groups. Sixth, Kenya's leaders are ultimately practical politicians whose desire for self-preservation means they are responsive to some degree to intense international and domestic pressure.
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Some Positive Steps
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4. (C) As we have reported, the coalition government has demonstrated some progress on reforms in the past two years due to all of the dynamics delineated above - but particularly as a result of the continuing role being played by Annan and especially U.S. pressure. At a time when most observers were cynically saying that Police Commissioner Ali would never be removed, he was. Following the imposition of our travel ban on Attorney General Wako, he started talking about "retirement" (before the middle of this year, he says). The government has launched police reform. A new Interim
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Independent Electoral Commission is up and running, and the Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission will soon begin its work. XXXXXXXXXXXX An anti-money laundering bill (which we have been heavily lobbying for) was recently passed and signed into law. The constitutional review process is underway.
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Culture of Impunity Works to Forestall Fundamental Reform
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5. (C) These are positive achievements, but most are only first steps. Those associated with the culture of impunity are working hard to limit the impact of steps taken so that they do not lead to truly fundamental reform that would threaten vested interests. Removals of key individuals, while in themselves significant, must be followed by real institutional reform. Several examples demonstrate the substantial challenges in bringing about institutional reform. Example 1: XXXXXXXXXXXX who blocks progress on high-level investigations and has ties directly to State House XXXXXXXXXXXX. The committee which considered replacements for XXXXXXXXXXXX picked someone who is a lightning rod to the vested interests and who is unlikely to be approved by Parliament, XXXXXXXXXXXX. Example 2: the process of police reform has been launched with great fanfare, but oversight of the process is questionable. The governmentXXXXXXXXXXXX is allegedly closely associated with the "kwe kwe" death squad responsible for extrajudicial killings. These examples are simply a few of many which demonstrate how the "culture of impunity" is, in effect, an informal system of governance that co-opts and/or forces others to participate or perish. To put it another way, the political elite are planning several chess moves ahead. While we are no mean chess players ourselves, it is very difficult to anticipate their next move or the motives behind "reform" steps.
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Key Reforms Not Yet Undertaken
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6. (C) Thus, while some initial progress has been made, the reforms needed to bring about fundamental change have not yet been achieved. No significant steps have been taken against high-level corruption, which remains rampant. No significant reform of the judicial or Attorney General's office has been undertaken. No steps have been taken to hold accountable perpetrators of post-election violence. Police reform remains an open question. Little has been done by the coalition government to foster national reconciliation and cohesion. The most important issue on the reform agenda is constitutional review (see ref B and previous reporting), but prospects for success of this are problematic. While constitutional revision must be accompanied by the other reforms, without constitutional revision the other reforms will not be sufficient to ensure future stability.
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Positive Impact of U.S. Policy and Actions
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7. (C) Though daunting, key elements of the reform agenda are achievable. Consistent and intense U.S. pressure and support - privately and publicly - stands a reasonable chance to achieve substantial progress on implementation. Part of this effort involves helping to empower a new generation of leaders and leveraging the old guard to implement at least some key elements of the reform agenda. We are thus engaged in a well-coordinated intensive effort along the following lines: First, we are engaged in intensive private contacts with the full array of key actors, from Kibaki and Odinga on down. Second, we are engaged in
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extensive outreach to civil society, religious groups, the media, and the private sector to urge more concerted efforts to press for implementation of the reform agenda. Third, we are reaching out vigorously to the Kenyan people to encourage dialogue, reconciliation, and peaceful advocacy for implementation of reforms. Fourth, we are engaged in targeted outreach and support for youth to empower them to participate more effectively to press for implementation of reforms and to help escape the cycle of poverty which facilitates their manipulation by the political elite. Fifth, we are supporting reform-minded parliamentarians. Finally, as part of our overall approach, we are laying out incentives, providing concrete support for implementation of reforms, and deploying specific pressure publicly and privately.
8. (C) We are coordinating this intensive push on the reform agenda through an inter-agency Mission Task Force. The Task Force, which I chair twice weekly, ensures that U.S. efforts are coordinated, complementary, and sustained. We are, for example, providing expertise to the constitution revision Committee of Experts, and are working with the Interim Electoral Commission on parameters for providing $1.5 million in technical assistance. We are working closely with the Minister of Security on ways to support real police reform, particularly the establishment of internal and external oversight mechanisms. We are providing technical and expert assistance to the Parliamentary Reform Caucus, which was established with our encouragement. We have just dispatched a delegation of civil society and youth leaders to Washington, and we are coordinating dates for the visit of a Parliamentary Reform Caucus delegation in February. Support from AID's Office of Transition Initiatives, coupled with public outreach, are having a dramatic impact in expanding the role of grassroots youth organizations to promote inter-ethnic dialogue and peaceful pressure for implementation of reforms. We recently launched a $45 million youth empowerment initiative. Actual travel bans and the threat to impose more are key elements of pressure that provide tangible evidence to corrupt anti-reform elites and to the Kenyan people that the USG will not do business as usual absent real change.
9. (C) This multi-faceted approach is having a marked impact among the Kenyan people and politicians. The U.S. push for reform is clearly viewed positively by the Kenyan people. The coalition leadership and Kenyan elite recognize the central importance of the U.S., know that the U.S. stance is viewed positively by the Kenyan people, and realize that they cannot ignore U.S. pressure. The quick impact which the Secretary's recent calls had (see ref B) is one indication of this. Another is that the parliamentary reform caucus, which started with just 20 members, has grown to over 60. Another smaller but very telling indication is that senior politicians have recently starting consulting leaders of the grassroots youth organizations which we are supporting. Members of Parliament have started talking with them and Prime Minister Odinga called one of the youth leaders before he departed with the civil society delegation to Washington.
10. (C) While the culture of impunity and the grip of the old guard political elite on the levers of state power and resources remain largely intact, hairline fractures are developing in their edifice which - if we continue to work them intensively - will develop into broader fractures and open up the potential for a peaceful process of implementation of fundamental reforms. Although being realistic about what is achievable, we should not set our sights too low. With a strong, consistent, and concerted effort, much can be accomplished. By burrowing into the process and using concrete support as leverage, significant police reform can be carried out. Providing support for witness protection will significantly improve the odds that the International Criminal Court will be able to indict several key suspects of post-election violence. Such indictments, particularly if they are public, would be a major blow to the culture of impunity and likely help alter political dynamics in a positive way. Most importantly, intensive U.S. engagement can improve prospects for successful conclusion of the constitutional revision process (the sine qua non of the reform agenda). Much else can be accomplished as well, but taken together these steps would constitute major progress and would greatly enhance prospects for future democratic stability and prosperity.
11. (C) U.S. efforts are also contributing to something less tangible but equally important: a dynamic of change percolating throughout Kenya. We are hearing from many, many sources that our outreach efforts are encouraging and emboldening ordinary Kenyans to speak out in favor of change. The old guard of vested interests knows that we and others within Kenya are fanning the winds of change - always stressing the need to work peacefully within the democratic process -- and feels threatened by that, but they also realize that they must somehow come to grips with it. The old
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guard's strategy is to do just enough to placate the people, Annan, and us, while trying to avoid fundamental change in the system. However, there is a real possibility that, as they seek to walk this fine line, the flood gates of change will open, or that at least the change will end up being more far-reaching than they envisaged. The sharp reaction of the old guard to our efforts and growing domestic pressure indicates that the culture of impunity system is not as strong as it may seem on the surface.
12. (C) In essence, we are on the right track. Obtaining further, decisive progress will require sustained, intensive high-level U.S. engagement and, as we have requested, additional resources in some areas as well. We are proceeding with a realistic appreciation of the challenge of bringing about fundamental change, but also with a cautiously optimistic appreciation that much is possible, and that positive engagement can make it happen. RANNEBERGER
Conclusions
Reading these Cables and I have to admit that they counterintuitively attest to his and His Government Bona Fides.
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Paul Kavuma, head of Catalyst Principal Partners.Reuters World Of Finance |
Private equity firms are setting up shop in east Africa attracted by a growing young and urban population, but also by better political stability and sounder macroeconomic management, the manager of one fund said.Regional integration by at least five east Africa nations, natural gas production in Tanzania, an oil find in Uganda and the hydro-electric potential in Ethiopia were also beckoning, said Paul Kavuma, head of Catalyst Principal Partners. "In the last two years, there's been a lot more activity. We are beginning to see a number of international or pan-African players beginning to take a real interest in East Africa," Kavuma told Reuters in Nairobi. "And its not a coincidence. There are a lot of positive trends we are seeing in east Africa." There were only two players in the market when Kavuma joined the private equity industry in Nairobi six years ago. African Venture Capital Association now lists 26 private equity venture capital fund managers investing in east Africa. The firm will launch a $100 million Catalyst Fund I in January for opportunities in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Zambia with a core focus on the consumer, services and industrial sectors.It has 70 percent of the amount and Kavuma said the remaining amount would be in place in the first quarter of 2011.The fund will have a life of five years and Catalyst will offload by either listing or trading its stake to any interested parties. It has a target of a 20-25 percent return. "We are seeing increasing trade interest -- multinationals, Indian, South African, West African corporates all looking for acquisitions in financial services, communications and other sectors, which provides further confidence about exit by private equity investors," he said. "It is a virtuous circle of positive things which is making it a much more attractive proposition." The firm will make its first investment soon after the fund's launch, in a consumer goods company, Kavuma said. Catalyst Principal will be injecting around $7 million for the deal in excess $50 million that it has with two other institutions. "We have got a strong pipeline of investors across multiple sectors," Kavuma said. The fund will be deployed within three to four years and diversified so that not more than 25 percent will go into one sector, and only up to 15 percent for any one company. "There's limits on countries just to make sure that we have a fully diversified portfolio of 10 or so investments," he said. Kavuma said there is always some anxiety on the issue of political succession in each of the country the fund will invest in but that things had improved over the last two decades. "Forget the latest newspaper headlines today, let's go back 10 years ago. Has the political environment improved or has it regressed in the last 10 years?" he said. "The changes are actually fundamental and irreversible in my view. One cannot help but be generally bullish on the long term prospects for the region. The facts speak volumes." Conclusions A Friend from Kenton College and then all these Years later on the same Floor and three Offices down. |
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share eased 0.24 points to close at 97.51. The NSE20 pushed 11.47 points higher to close at 4383.36. Market Cap was 1.163266 Trillion versus 1.166115 Trillion last time. Equity Turnover was considerably slacker at 205.238m versus 489.717m last time. Safaricom has bounced 3.25% higher in the last 2 Sessions. Equity Bank was weak today closing 2.94% lower and Access Kenya hit a new 52 week Closing Low. KPLC Rights got slammed 27.586% lower. |
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Sasini Tea firmed 1.56% to close at 13.00. Sasini Tea traded a 12.95-13.20 range and trades on a Price Earnings of 3.00. Kakuzi closed at 78.00 and traded 3,000 shares. Kakuzi trades on a PE of 4.498. Rea Vipingo traded 500 shares all at 15.50 and unchanged. |
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
SAFARICOM
shares volume 8,116,000 total turnover 38,149,404 avg price 4.70 CLOSING PRICE 4.70 +1.08% high price 4.75 low price 4.60 last price 4.75
Conclusions
Safaricom traded 2nd and followed yesterdays 2.02% gain with a 1.08% gain today to close at 4.70 and was trading 4.75 +2.15% into the Finale. Safaricom finally came off its steeply 'Oversold' level of 4.50 this week and trades on a Trailing Price Earnings of 12.00. It has all the [price War] News baked into the Price good.
Access Kenya fell 3.87% to close at a New 52 week Low of 14.90. Access Kenya is -24.204% now over a 1 Year Period and traded shares as low as 14.10 -9.03%. Access Kenya traded 29,900 shares.
Kenya Airways eased 1.63% to close at 45.25 and traded 27,200 shares.
ScanGroup was unchanged at 60.00 and traded 35,900 shares.
TPS Serena was unchanged at 68.00 with 24,300 shares changing hands.
CMC Holdings firmed 5 cents to close at 12.15 and traded 34,000 shares. Cargen eased 2.08% to close at 47.00 and traded 500 shares.
Nation improved a shilling to close at 159.00 and traded 1,100 shares. Standard was marked down 3.37% to close at 43.00 and traded 35,800 shares.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
KCB firmed 1.15% to close at 22.00 and traded a 21.75-22.50 range and 492,700 shares with Demand On the Board for 2.749m shares at the Close. KCB trades on a Forward PE Multiple of 8.00 and will target 30.00-32.00 coincident with the Release of the Full Year Results. COOP Bank was the most active share at the NSE and traded 3.043m shares worth 57.962m and closed unchanged at 19.05. COOP Bank has done a great deal of work and volume at these levels. COOP Bank has posted a 115.522% 1 Year Return and trades on a 22.475 Trailing PE Multiple. StanChart eased 0.78% to close at 256.00 and traded a 255.00-258.00 range and 54,400 shares worth 13.979m. Barclays Bank eased 0.83% to close at 60.00 and traded 23,300 shares. Barclays trades on a Trailing PE of 13.376 and has posted a 44.112% 1 Year Return but eased of 70.00 Highs from 15th July. Equity Bank fell 2.94% to close at 24.75 and traded a 24.50-25.25 range and 292,800 shares. Equity Bank is +86.637% over a 1 Year Period and has retreated 10.81% off its 2010 High of 27.75 dated 12th October.
Centum fell 1.113% to close at 21.75 and traded 388,800 shares. Centum has underwritten the KPLC Rights Issue with Equity Bank and recent price weakness might be related to that. Centum is up 107.43% over a 1 Year Period and is 16.346% below its 2010 High of 26.00.
Kenya Re slumped 7.421% to close at 11.85 and traded 76,900 shares. Jubilee traded 1,200 shares and closed at 185.00. PanAfric did not trade.
HFCK slipped 2.06% to close at 24.25 and traded 89,600 shares. NBK closed 1.935% lower at 38.00 and traded 52,300 shares. NIC shaved off 50 cents to close at 48.50 and traded 12,100 shares. DTB was unchanged at 133.00 and traded 41,700 shares. CFC StanBic traded 1,100 shares and closed a shilling lower at 77.00.
Olympia Capital traded 22,900 shares and closed at 6.10.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
Kenya Power Ordinary shares eased back 1.085% to close at 22.75 and traded 3rd with 645,800 shares worth 14.756m changing hands. Renaissance Capital [The Folks 2 Floors below Mine] upgraded KPLC to 'buy' and set a price target of 41 shillings per share for the monopoly utility, which is restructuring its capital base. Renaissance said that "We see KPLC as an established, effective infrastructure company, operating on a small scale -- typical for a frontier economy -- but with sound prospects for growth." "Valuing KPLC ... we derive a target price of 41 shillings/share, 78 percent above the current share price. We therefore re-initiate coverage of KPLC with a BUY rating." Thats a very Bold Call.
Kenya Power all Relevant Announcements share price data www.rich.co.ke http://bit.ly/BLiwX
KPLC Rights got slammed 27.586% lower to close at 2.10 and traded a 2.00-3.50 range and 4.69m times. KenGen eased 5 cents to close at 17.00 and traded 314,900 shares. Cables closed at 16.00 -1.23%.
Sameer rallied 6.504% to close at 6.55 and traded 72,800 shares.
Mumias Sugar firmed 0.505% to close at 9.75 and traded 1.2m shares. The PE has a 9.00 handle and Buyers are beginning to step up now.
EABL closed 0.485% stronger at 207.00 and traded 40,200 shares. EABL traded a Fresh All Time High of 226.00 some 15 Sessions ago and appears to have based out above 200.00 after a Retreat and that will look constructive on the charts.
Unga traded 128,900 shares and firmed 1.851% to close at 11.00.
KenolKobil was unchanged at 9.95 and traded 92,300 shares. Total traded 32,000 shares and closed lower at 28.00.
Eveready closed 3.27% lower at 2.95 and traded 19,500 shares.
ARM was unchanged at 172.00 and traded 11,500 shares. Bamburi Cement and Portland did not trade.
Crown Berger closed lower at 31.00 and traded 8,000 shares. BAT did not trade. Carbacid was marked down 2 shillings to close at 145.00 and traded 2,100 shares. BOC Gases did not trade. |
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