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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 16th of December 2010
 
Afternoon
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

CNBC #Africa 14 December - #Kenya Markets - Aly Khan Satchu - Rich Management
http://bit.ly/ghSeyr

A #Mindspeak Aperitif RICH TV
http://bit.ly/1mPS6v

My Presentation at @Africagathering Business Start Ups Making Ideas Happen
http://bit.ly/he67J8

I start by playing the Rolling Stones' Start Me Up
http://bit.ly/eA23yj

Kenya Economic Update KEU Edition 3 The Tipping Point
http://bit.ly/exqFwJ

Financial Times Kenya Special
http://bit.ly/eE6lTu

Macro Thoughts

Very Whippy of late. QE2 being offset by the Spike in US Bond Yields,
which is an entirely unintended Consequence but speaks to a more
Vigilante US Bond Market.

Stay with the Breakfast Commodities. Sugar is over 31 cents, Coffee at
Multi Year Highs - The Poor Relation for now is Tea but that is set to
play Catch Up.

Home Thoughts

Back to Kabir

Between the Poles of the Concious and the Unconscious, there has the
Mind made a Swing:
Thereon hang all Beings and all Worlds, and that Swing never ceases its Sway.
Millions of Beings are there: the Sun and the Moon in their courses are there:
Millions of Ages pass, and the Swing goes on.

I just love that. And You have probably worked out by now.

read more


When North Korea’s threats become reality Kim Myong Chol Asia Times
Law & Politics

"Never get involved in a land war in Asia."
- General Douglas MacArthur, 1961

"Should the US and South Korea disregard our repeated warnings to
unleash war, we must lose no time in going to the heart of the enemy
to show them what it is like to fight nuclear war on their own land."
North Korean heir-apparent Kim Jong-eun

A resumption of hostilities on the tiny Korean Peninsula would mean
immediate war between two nuclear powers, North Korea and the United
States. The latter keeps a nuclear-armed garrison of some 20,000
troops with a sprawling network of military bases across South Korea.A
second Korean War would not fail to disappoint Western experts who
wish to see Kim Jong-eun given an opportunity to prove his
unprecedented military genius. He would preside over the evaporation
of the world's sole superpower in the first thermonuclear exchange
ever fought on the spaceship Earth.

Acting for supreme leader Kim Jong-il, the young general is one click
away from issuing a long-awaited order to the Korean People's Army's
(KPA) shiny and sleek, quick-response global strike force. This would
see the torching of the bulwark of the US empire, the skyscrapers of
New York City and other centers of metropolitan America.Crack
front-line units of the KPA are ready round the clock to bomb Seoul,
turning it into a towering inferno before moving in on the ground to
complete their mission.

The Korean Peninsula today is teetering on the edge of war, with the
trigger-happy Lee Myung-bak government in Seoul vowing to launch
airstrikes on North Korea against what it terms a provocation.A
US-supported South Korean military exercise carries every risk of
instantly escalating by design, accident, and miscalculation into a
full-scale shooting war, and a nuclear war.

As the Wall Street Journal reported December 8, "Admiral [Mike] Mullen
[the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff] said he had not asked
South Korea to take air strikes off the table."

North Korea today is a far cry from what it was in 1950s. Fortress
North Korea can withstand thermonuclear strikes and shoot down 80-90%
of enemy warplanes, missiles and cruise missiles.Fortress North Korea
can easily sink nuclear-powered American aircraft carriers and reach
metropolitan US with long-range missiles. It is a pity that the US
still clings to the wishful delusion that their white elephants can
simply wade into Korean waters.Its electronic warfare units are
capable of playing havoc with the enemy infrastructure of command,
control and communications. In the most important development, as a
member of the elite space and nuclear clubs, North Korea has the
ability to inflict merciless retaliatory strikes on the remotest
strategic target on the American mainland, nearly half the earth away.

It will only take Kim Jong-eun a couple of minutes to turn Seoul into
a sea of fire, five minutes to torch Tokyo, and 15-20 minutes to
evaporate New York and Washington in a "day-after" scenario.

While the US's skyscrapers are collapsing in a raging conflagration
and people stampeding helter-skelter in all directions for shelter,
the whole North Korean population can be evacuated into hardened
underground shelters in a matter of 15 minutes.The moment of truth
will come sooner than originally expected, vindicating the validity of
the military-first policy mapped out by Kim Jong-il and demonstrating
how wise the Korean people are in selecting Young General Kim Jong-eun
as heir to the supreme leader.

Conclusions

Kim Myong Chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean,
Japanese and English on North Korea, including Kim Jong-il's Strategy
for Reunification. He has a PhD from the Democratic People's Republic
of Korea's Academy of Social Sciences and is often called an
"unofficial" spokesman of Kim Jong-il and North Korea.

The Hermit Kingdom The Star
http://bit.ly/gzglrT

FAR away in distant lands lies the Hermit Kingdom. This land is ruled
by The House of Kim and its capital is Pyongyang.The first and
‘Eternal’ President was Kim Il-sung and his successor Kim Jong-il
whose designated successor is Kim Jung-un. They all have had tiny
little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker. And this
country has nuclear weapons and on its border with its neighbour South
Korea sit 25,000 American soldiers. Last week the North shelled the
South and issued all kinds of threats. “The DPRK (North Korea) will
deal a merciless military counter-attack at any provocative act of
intruding into its territorial waters in the
future.’’ President Obama sentthe USS George Washington to the Yellow
Sea and now here we sit watching developments and trying to model what
is happening and what might happen? In reality, we are actually
navigating in uncharted waters. The media keeps chanting like a
mantra, China will rein North Korea in. It is not in their Interests
to have a mad dog like North Korea as an ally.

read more


Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3231 - Spain News knocked it hard off its 1.34+ Perch.
Pound 1.5568
Yen 84.23 - over 84.00
Aussie 0.9874
Rand 6.8588
South Korean Won 1151.45
India Rupee 45.35
Dollar Index 80.14

Earlier Wednesday, Moody's warned it may downgrade its ratings on
Spain's government debt, adding that its banks may require as much as
€90 billion ($120.43 billion) in recapitalization funds.

Conclusions

I would try and test a small Euro Long at 1.32.

Euro versus Dollar 5 Day Chart INO 1.3223
http://bit.ly/deyPwl

Prefer to be testing this from the Long Euro side but You need to
watch the US Bond Market.

read more


The benchmark 10-year note's yield touched 3.563%, the highest level since May 13 WSJ
World Of Finance

1-Month Bill    0/32    0.086
3-Month Bill    0/32    0.145
6-Month Bill    0/32    0.191
1-Year Note    0/32    0.305
2-Year Note    1/32    0.661
3-Year Note    3/32    1.080
5-Year Note    5/32    2.092
7-Year Note    8/32    2.846
10-Year Note    12/32    3.493
30-Year Bond    20/32    4.564

Conclusions

The US Bond Market turns Vigilante.

read more



Twitter Gets $3.7 Billion Value WSJ
Information & Communication Technology


The value of Twitter Inc., the website that allows users to send
140-character messages called "tweets," has nearly quadrupled in the
past year, according to a new investment made in the San Francisco
start-up.Twitter said Wednesday it raised a round of funding that
valued it at $3.7 billion, becoming the latest young Web company in
which private investors put a multibillion-dollar worth on the
operation.

175 million registered users.

Twitter will draw just under $50 million in ad revenue in 2010,
according to research firm eMarketer. That figure doesn't include fees
Twitter receives annually from Google and Microsoft Corp. to show
tweets to users of their search engines. People familiar with the
matter say Twitter earns millions of dollars a year from such fees.

The new $200 million investment was led by venture capital firm
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers of Menlo Park, Calif., a Twitter
spokesman said. The company, which has some 350 employees, has now
raised about $360 million from venture firms including Benchmark
Capital and Union Square Ventures. So far, the company has indicated
no plans to sell stock publicly.

Twitter's new valuation is a significant jump from its $1 billion
level last fall during a prior round of financing, according to people
familiar with the situation.

The company hasn't disclosed revenue from earlier ad initiatives but
some marketers have praised Twitter as a promising ad platform.

Conclusions

The Valuation was not ridiculous at $1b and taking the Pulse then
showed that the Crowd had a supreme Conviction that the Valuation was
off side by a Margin. And the Reaction at $3.7b is no different. To
leave more than 300% on the Table is hardly something to trumpet from
the Roof Tops. A 'promising AD Platform' - Thats brilliant. Twitter is
an Uber Platform that continues to scale exponentially. When You drill
into Twitter, The Location and Conversation Metrics are unprecedented.
The Brand Value is very high as well. It has established a c21st Bona
Fides which is worth a $1b on its very own. $3.7b will look cheap in
12 months and the Entire Conversation repeated Ad Infinitum.

There is a New c21st Ecosystem out there and Twitter has a Big Piece
of the Real Estate.

Aly-Khan Satchu
http://www.rich.co.ke/index.php
Nairobi

read more


Weber Americana Vanity Fair
Misc.

1. Not a Bad World Is It?, 1984. © Ed Ruscha.

2. Margaret French and Jared French, Provincetown, c. 1942.
Paul Cadmus, Jared French, and Margaret French/courtesy of the Bruce
Weber and Nan Bush Collection

read more





Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities

COCOA
CC.Z10.E    Dec 2010 (E)    2950    +38    +1.29%   
COFFEE
KC.Z10.E    Dec 2010 (E)    216.90    +0.55    +0.25%   
COTTON #2
CT.H11.E    Mar 2011 (E)    144.89    +2.75    +1.93%   
SUGAR #11-WORLD
SB.H11.E    Mar 2011 (E)    31.11    +0.41    +1.31%    -> Crosses 31.00 cents.

Wall Street Journal is speculating that Armajaro has released Stock
into Delivery of the Dec Cocoa Contract
http://on.wsj.com/fOqUNM

Anthony Ward's bet on the cocoa market seems to have turned bitter.
His commodities firm, Armajaro, has disposed of its stocks amid
falling world prices, people with knowledge of the market said
Wednesday.London cocoa deliveries against the December contract, which
expired Tuesday, hit their highest level for the final contract of the
year in a decade, data released by the NYSE Liffe exchange
showed.Traders said the surge appeared to be the result of Armajaro
releasing stocks accumulated earlier this year, back into the market

Sugar March 2011 INO 31.11 Last INO
http://bit.ly/arDA0l

Last Price    31.11
Open Int.    234305 -
Contract High    33.39
Contract Low    11.9
Contract High Date    2010-11-11
Contract Low Date    2008-10-24
Expiration    2011-02-28

Conclusions

Back asserting Leadership in the Breakfast Commodity Asset Class.

Coffee March 2011 INO 217.50 +1.10 (+0.51%) INO
http://bit.ly/ejwT2X

Last Price    217.50
Open Int.    88459
Contract High    221.45
Contract Low    131.4
First Delivery    2011-03-31
Contract High Date    2010-11-10
Contract Low Date    2009-07-08
Expiration    2011-03-21

Conclusions

Headed higher with its Entire Asset Class.

Aging Coffee Stocks Force IntercontinentalExchange to Act WSJ
http://on.wsj.com/fVSYvX

The exchange that oversees the world's most actively traded coffee
futures has answered a wake-up call.Responding to a growing buzz that
its stockpiles of arabica coffee include beans far past their prime,
IntercontinentalExchange Inc. last week said it will for the first
time prohibit beans too old to make good coffee from being delivered
against the contract.Coffee stockpiles have dwindled as bad weather
has slashed consecutive harvests in some countries in Central America,
as well as in Colombia, the world's largest producer of the prized,
mild-washed arabica beans.

Conclusions

Coffee Prices are at Multi Year Highs and headed higher I believe.

Mozambique bread riots may be warning sign csmonitor
By Aly-Khan Satchu, September 6, 2010 Nairobi, Kenya
http://bit.ly/9AtLTl

I have a supreme conviction that global food markets are but the
perturbation of a butterflys's wing away from a serious tipping point.
In fact, I would venture that the best way to play the narrative
fallacy that is the "Global Climate Change Denial Camp" is via buying
a basket of breakfast commodities and grains. There are more of us,
our average calorific intake is a multiple of what it was, and we have
toasted the planet -- capping global agricultural output. Narrowing
that perception gap and converting it into real action is going to be
like herding cats.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is fond of saying
that the food markets have ample inventory and that there is
absolutely nothing to worry our little heads about. May I refer you to
wheat, which ramped 38 percent higher in July, 3.7 percent in August,
and so far this month a further 7 percent. The reasons are well known:
Russia has undergone a heatwave and Vladimir Putin (probably not keen
on going the way of Indonesia's President Suharto - anger over soaring
food prices after he cut fuel and some food subsidies helped drive him
from power in 1998) immediately cancelled all Russian wheat exports.
This is a perfect example of the asymmetry of the food markets. The
moment there is a hint of trouble, countries start hoarding. It
creates a concertina effect.

The Farmers will drive the Ferraris The Star
http://bit.ly/b7fbfU

Some of those Companies I talk of are trading at PEs of 2.00
Williamson Tea and all can be navigated from here
http://bit.ly/2Cxjco

read more


The Cables from Tashkent New Yorker
Tourism, Travel & Transport

How do you get to Afghanistan? And what do you have to pay, or
squander, on the way? There has been a lot of talk—rightly so—about
the moral compromises associated with the conduct of our war in
Afghanistan: the drug dealers on our payroll; the graft we fund; the
civilians killed in the course of our raids. But some diplomatic
cables from our embassy in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, give new insight into
what we’ve got ourselves into just to get our stuff to Afghanistan.
Wars use up a lot of supplies, and we have been carrying ours through
some questionable countries. One cable from Tashkent describes “close
connections between organized crime” and the government of President
Islam Karimov, upon whose cooperation we've come to rely for one of
our supply routes. Other cables, according to the Guardian, report on
“forced labour in the cotton fields” and “torture.” They also portray
the President’s daughter, Gulnora Karimova, arriving at a nightclub at
three in the morning to join her little sister, Lola, who drives
around town in a Porsche Cayenne and dances quite a bit—but that
doesn’t make either woman charming; not even close.

A more interesting woman is Mutabar Tadjibayeva, who has worked for
human rights in Uzbekistan and had been imprisoned by the regime.
Hillary Clinton gave her a prize, the Women of Courage award. That
caused Karimov to have a temper tantrum. From the Guardian’s
summary:Karimov’s displeasure was conveyed in “icy tones”, which
alarmed the embassy: “We have a number of important issues on the
table right now, including the Afghanistan transit (NDN) framework.”
On 18 March 2009, the US ambassador, Richard Norland, submitted to a
personal tongue-lashing from Karimov with an “implicit threat to
suspend transit of cargo for US forces in Afghanistan via the Northern
Distribution Network”.Norland claimed to have calmed Karimov down on
that occasion, but warned Washington: “Clearly, pressuring him
(especially publicly) could cost us transit.”

read more


Africa Treasure amid turmoil FT
Africa

Adolph Lundin, a silver-haired mining magnate from Sweden, swept into
the foyer of Kinshasa’s Grand Hotel to announce the “rebirth” of the
Democratic Republic of Congo’s mining industry. It was 1996 and he had
just secured rights to one of the richest copper and cobalt deposits
in the world.

Demand from emerging powers has driven copper prices to record highs
and put a floor under the price of many other natural resources that
Africa has in abundance. It is a rare moment when the market is
providing an opportunity for the continent to prosper on more equal
terms.

“Africa is rich and its stock is rising. The value of its land and
minerals is going up,” Kofi Annan, the former UN secretary-general,
said this year as he launched a review of the continent’s progress in
meeting development goals. “There is no lack of resources, no
deficiency of knowledge and no shortage of plans.”

Congo ought to be in prime position to benefit. Mining analysts
believe it could be to global metal supplies in the 21st century what
Klondike in California was to gold and Kimberley in South Africa was
to diamonds in the 19th.

Economists already base long-term copper prices on how fast Congo can
develop its endowment. It has one-third of the world’s supplies of
cobalt, Africa’s largest supplies of industrial diamonds and tin, as
well as coltan, gold, iron ore and uranium in abundance. To boot, the
Congo river, second in volume after the Amazon, could provide
hydroelectric power to metal processing plants and at the same time
light up much of Africa.

Conclusions

“Congo has many of the attributes that Brazil had when it began to
take off. They should bust it wide open,” says Aly-Khan Satchu, a
Nairobi-based investment banker and a torchbearer for recent
Afro-optimism.

I traded Brazil 1993-1995.

read more


The Very Frontier of the Frontier A Picture of the currently defunct Kinshasa Borsa taken in 2010 Congo
Africa

I was invited to look at how to rehabilitate the Borsa but could not
align Everyone, which seems to me to be the generic Congolese Issue.

read more


Nigeria Sells $800 Million Bloomberg
World Currencies

Nigeria sold $800 million of foreign currency at an auction today,
below the year-high demand of $837.78 million, according to the
central bank.

“Demand is this high because multinational companies and other
investors want to make end-of-year remittances back to their head
offices abroad,” Babatunde Obaniyi, an analyst at Lagos-based
Afrinvest West Africa Ltd., said by phone. “Demands for dollars may
remain high till the end of the year.”

Dollars were sold for between 149.06 naira and 150 naira, the
Abuja-based Central Bank of Nigeria said in an e-mailed statement
today.

Nigeria Naira versus The Dollar ForexPros Live 153.10
http://bit.ly/bIrrqB

read more


Nigeria All Share Index Bloomberg Visual +17.888% 2010
Africa

Value24,511.04   
Change204.210    
% Change0.840

Conclusions

I do not see it running away to the Upside for now.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg Visual +14.591% 2010
Africa

Value31,703.61   
Change36.970    
% Change0.117

About 4.89% off its all time High and I expect that to be taken out in 2011.

read more


Dollar versus Rand ForexPros Live 6.8571
World Currencies

Mid Range - Its a Buy above 7.00 and I believe targets 6.61.

read more


Namibia’s Central Bank Reduces Benchmark Rate to 6% Bloomberg
World Of Finance


Namibia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by
three-quarters of a percentage point to boost growth as inflation
remains close to a five-year low.The repurchase rate was reduced to 6
percent, Bank of Namibia Governor Ipumbu Shiimi told reporters today
in the capital, Windhoek. The drop is the second in two meetings after
the bank reduced the rate by 25 basis points in October. It also
follows a cut in South Africa’s repo rate to 5.5 percent on Nov. 18.

The central bank “is of the view that a further round of monetary
easing is justified to mitigate the weaknesses in the real sector and
boost growth on the demand side,” he said. “The subdued inflationary
environment for the short to medium term further provided space for
monetary easing.”Inflation in Namibia, the world’s biggest miner of
offshore diamonds and fourth-biggest uranium producer, accelerated to
3.4 percent in November from 3.2 percent a month earlier, which was
the lowest since December 2005, according to the central statistics
office. Inflation pressure is “very benign” and a slowdown in economic
growth in Europe is a threat to Namibia’s economy, Shiimi said on Nov.
4.

The economy is estimated to expand 4.2 percent this year and
contracting 0.7 percent in 2009, Shiimi said today. The mining
industry continues to drive growth, he said.

“The growth in the mining sector was displayed in the increased output
of most minerals on an annual basis, including diamonds, gold and zinc
concentrates,” Shiimi said.

Namibia’s economy may grow 4.4 percent this, the International
Monetary Fund said on Aug. 25.

Foreign currency reserves declined to 10.2 billion Namibian dollars
($1.5 billion) in November from 12.2 billion dollars a month earlier,
Shiimi said.

read more


Zambia Doing ‘Preparatory Paperwork’ to Sell Eurobond Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Zambia is doing the final preparations to sell a Eurobond, though
there isn’t a date set for the sale, Finance Minister Situmbeko
Musokotwane said.

“We have reached a stage where the final preparatory paperwork is
being done,” Musokotwane told reporters today in the capital, Lusaka.
“I can’t put a timeframe to it,” he said.

Zambia, Africa’s biggest copper producer, postponed in 2008 a plan to
seek a credit rating and sell its first global bond of $1 billion
because of the global financial crisis.Musokotwane also didn’t say how
much the country planned to sell.

read more



Nairobi All Share Bloomberg Visual +33.786% 2010
N.S.E General

Value77.81   
Change-0.120    
% Change-0.154

Conclusions

2010 Peak to Today Correction is 9.896%.

read more


Ocampo list casts a dark cloud over the economy Business Daily
Law & Politics

“Peace and security is critical for economic stability. The government
needs to manage the process and safeguard Kenya’s image,” said Dickson
Khainga, the head of the macro-economics unit at the Kenya Institute
of Public Policy Research and Analysis.

Conclusions

The Political Tape turns parabolic
http://bit.ly/hp0SWd

The ICC Indictment PDF

read more


Kenyans’ Indictment Is Sought in Vote Violence New York Times
Law & Politics

“This is a different kind of case,” Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the court’s
chief prosecutor, said of the accusations, which are scheduled to be
announced Wednesday. “This isn’t about militias. It’s about
politicians and political parties. It’s about investigating
leadership.”

And, Mr. Moreno-Ocampo added, “this isn’t just about justice. For
Kenya, this is survival.”

Among the top six politicians named are Uhuru Kenyatta, finance
minister and son of Kenya’s founding leader, Jomo Kenyatta; Mohammed
Hussein Ali, the former police chief, who stands accused of unleashing
police officers to shoot unarmed demonstrators; and William Ruto,
arguably Kenya’s most divisive political figure, widely accused of
instigating violence but revered as a hero within his ethnic
community, the Kalenjin. Some of the worst episodes of violence,
including the burning of a church with dozens of women and children
inside, occurred in predominantly Kalenjin areas.

“Finally, we have our day,” said Maina Kiai, a former Kenyan human
rights official. “This is the first time we have high-ranking people
facing the law where they have no control and they can’t bribe their
way out of it.”

“If the I.C.C. is seen as having done a balanced job,” said John
Githongo, a former anticorruption official who was forced into exile
and recently returned to Kenya, “then it will be more difficult for
the elite to mobilize people violently against it.”

But, Mr. Githongo added, “Kenya is now a volatile country. The
politics are bubbling. A lot of change is happening at the same time.
Anything is possible.”

Mr. Moreno-Ocampo says Mr. Ruto (who used to be a minister but was
suspended recently because of corruption accusations); Henry Kosgey,
the minister of industrialization; and Joshua arap Sang, a radio
broadcaster — all well-known opposition figures — began planning a
year before the election to attack supporters of the governing party.
After Mr. Kibaki was declared the winner, prosecutors say, the network
they cultivated burned homes, killed civilians who had supported Mr.
Kibaki and systematically drove people off their land.

In response, prosecutors say, Mr. Kenyatta, Mr. Ali and Francis
Muthaura, the head of the civil service, “developed and executed a
plan” for “suppressing and crushing” opposition protests and keeping
the governing party in power.

The police were sent to opposition strongholds “where they used
excessive force against civilian protesters,” and Mr. Kenyatta and Mr.
Muthaura deputized one of Kenya’s most brutal street gangs, the
Mungiki, to “organize retaliatory attacks against civilian” opposition
supporters, the prosecutor contends.

Factbox: Kenyans react after ICC names violence suspects Reuters
http://reut.rs/eEjMCL

he naming of six top suspects behind the east African country's
post-election violence in 2008 by the International Criminal Court
prosecutor drew varied reaction from the suspects, the president,
traders and those displaced by the clashes.

MWAI KIBAKI, KENYA'S PRESIDENT

"I wish to state that the people who have been mentioned have not yet
been fully investigated as the pre-trial process in The Hague has only
but begun. They therefore cannot be judged as guilty until the charges
are confirmed by the court. Calls for action to be taken against them
are therefore prejudicial, preemptive and against the rules of natural
justice."

UHURU KENYATTA, MINISTER FOR FINANCE

"My conscience is clear, has been clear and will always be clear. I
have committed no crime... I expect the International Criminal Court
process to be free and fair. I welcome the chance to present my case,
prove my innocence and end the unnecessary speculation and innuendo
that has been peddled over the last year."

FRANCIS MUTAHURA, CIVIL SERVICE HEAD AND CABINET SECRETARY

"I thoroughly repudiate any suggestions that I have engaged in any
activity that gives rise to responsibility under the Rome statute. The
suggestion that I have done anything to warrant criminal investigation
is manifest nonsense. It amounts to an unwarranted slur on my
reputation and is both unfair and unjustified ... I have never
committed any crime."

ALY KHAN SATCHU, INDEPENDENT ANALYST, NAIROBI

"The ICC has struck evenhandedly, but at the very heart of Kibaki's
administration. Francis Muthaura is "the trusted servant" of the
president and he will now have to protect the very heart of the
presidency. His is the ultimate sacrifice. This is a deeper incision
than I expected and investors will be watching for the incision to be
clean and the boil lanced."

KWAMCHETSI MAKOKHA, POLITICAL COMMENTATOR

"The main complication is in the cabinet. Those ministers and
officials named have to be excluded from the cabinet. In the interim,
this means the government must be re-organized. On another level, this
is an indictment of the manner in which we conduct elections in
Kenya."

JOHN GITHONGO, FORMER KENYA ANTI-GRAFT CZAR

"It is both a great day for Kenya and a sad day for Kenya. It is a
great day because we can start to deal with high level impunity. It is
a sad day because we have not dealt with this ourselves, and we can
therefore expect a period of uncertainty and volatility."

MANU CHANDARIA, LEADING KENYAN INDUSTRIALIST

"This is a strong sign that this (political violence) is not
acceptable in Kenya. Kenya is on a recovery path and the two
principals, (President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga)
have a major role to play, of unifying the country," said Chandaria.

KIPRONO KITTONY, CHAIRMAN MEDIA OWNERS ASSOCIATION

"This (the naming of a Joshua arap Sang, head of operations at Kass FM
as a key suspect) informs us the media has to uphold high standards in
times of unrest in how we broadcast. We will meet as the media owners
to take stock of what has happened."

BEATRICE NYOKABI, DISPLACED DURING POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE

"We expected more ministers who sponsored the violence to be on the
list but Ocampo has come up with a list that is wanting. The powerful
and mighty should have been summoned so that impunity in this country
can end."

JEFF NGETICH, ON THE STREETS OF NAIROBI

"The president and prime minister were supposed to be the first in the
list. Those are the people we fought for because of the stolen
elections. I am so much surprised to see on the list that there is a
small guy working with a radio station. I dont think he bears any
great responsibility."

MARKET REACTION

* "There's nothing really. The (foreign exchange) market had already
factored in the news," said a senior trader at one commercial bank.

* "It wasn't such a big surprise, some of the names like Uhuru and
Ruto were mentioned before. The market is watching in case anything
happens."

read more


Kenya's KenGen has $364.5 mln for geothermal plant Reuters
Minerals, Oil & Energy


KenGen received a 29.4 billion shillings ($364.5 million) loan for a
new 280 MW geothermal plant and infrastructure, the government said on
Wednesday.
Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, who signed the loan agreements, said
the French Development Agency contributed 150 million euro and the
European Investment Bank gave 119 million.

"This will be drilling of geothermal wells, steam field development,
which will require infrastructure, transmission lines and substation,
which will go a long way in increasing energy supply in the country,"
Kenyatta said.

read more


African Tea Prices Climb to $2.76 a Kilogram, Tea Brokers Says Bloomberg
Commodities


Tea prices rose to an average of $2.76 a kilogram from $2.62 last week
at a sale in Mombasa, Kenya, Tea Brokers East Africa Ltd. said in an
e-mailed report today.

Tea Companies at the Nairobi Stock Exchange can be found from here
http://bit.ly/2Cxjco

read more



Kenya raises domestic borrowing target by 14 pct Reuters
Kenyan Economy

Kenya has increased its domestic borrowing target for the current
fiscal year by 14 percent to 120 billion shillings to fund the
implementation of a new constitution, a senior finance ministry
official said.Kenyans passed a new charter at a referendum in August
which they hope will overhaul how the country is run by defining a new
political and governance platform.

"We will borrow 120 billion as opposed to 105 billion, which we had
expected to borrow," Joseph Kinyua, permanent secretary at the
Treasury, told Reuters.

"The reason for the additional increase is associated largely with the
requirements for the implementation of the new constitution."

Kenya's fiscal year starts in July to the end of June.

The government has set up a commission to oversee several new laws
that will give the constitution legs to stand on.The new charter
demands changes such as establishing regional grassroot governments
that will have a share of the national budget and a land commission to
look into historic injustices on that front.Finance Minister Uhuru
Kenyatta said in a budget speech in June that borrowing from local
markets would be 105.3 billion shillings. The cabinet has since passed
a supplementary budget of 3.5 billion shillings to pay for the
implementation of the new law.A central bank official has said the
Treasury has so far borrowed 51 billion shillings of the targeted 82
billion for the first half ending in December.Total domestic debt has
risen to 704.7 billion shillings in September, from 660.3 billion at
the end of the previous fiscal year, the latest Monthly Economic
Survey by central bank showed.Domestic debt accounted for 54.4 percent
of total public debt at the end of the first quarter in September
2010.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share closed 0.42 points lower at 96.48.
The NSE 20 slipped 14.13 points to close at 4368.3.
Market Cap was 1.151009 Trillion versus 1.156113 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 352.381m versus more than 555m yesterday when the
Session was extended for an Hour at 40 Minutes to close at 440.
The All Share is some 10% off its 2010 High and I think the Bourse was
preemptive about Pricing in Political Risk ahead of yesterdays
announcement. If We move without Friction to an ICC Process then we
have Head Room. The next 3 months might now represent a Known Unknown
[as per Donald Rumsfeld Esquire]. In the Medium Term, this Process
will surely be Cathartic and therefore Bullish. Investors essentially
want the Boil lanced cleanly and one time.
In fact, the High Beta Proxy for Kenya now is surely the KPLC Rights
Issue, which is not a Small Call.
The Bourse and the Shilling have maintained an Orderly Bias.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Tea Prices were $2.76 per KG at the Last Auction and I believe will
inflect higher still in 2011 in the Slip Stream of the BreakFast
Commodity Asset Class of which Tea is a Component. Sugar and Coffee
are at Multi Year Highs. Tea Companies remain egregiously mispriced on
PEs below 5 and will eventually undergo and sharp Re Rating.

Sasini Tea improved 1.908% to close at 13.35 and traded 29,100
shares.Sasini Tea reported FY EPS of 4 shillings 30 cents and hence
trades on a PE of 3.104.
Kakuzi firmed 2.56% to close at 80.00 and traded 200 shares. Kakuzi
trades on a Trailing PE of 4.61 and accelerated 1st Half earnings.
Rea Vipingo traded 3,300 shares at 16.70 unchanged.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     9,615,200
total turnover     45,533,556
avg price     4.74 Closing Price 4.70 Unchanged
high price     4.75
low price     4.70
last price     4.70

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 2nd at the Bourse and closed unchanged at 4.70.
Safaricom has bounced off 4.50 and quite oversold Levels and The
Demand versus Supply Metric [Buyers outweigh Sellers by 2-1] signals
further Upside Traction.

You might care to watch RICH TV and Bob Collymore's Presentation at
Mindspeak where he set out his Stall
http://bit.ly/1mPS6v

Safaricom share price data 1st Half Results here www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/d9amsi

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          4.70
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        188,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                12.368

Access Kenya traded 6th at the Bourse. Access Kenya eased 0.7% to
close at 14.05 a Fresh 52 week closing Low. Access Kenya traded 1.37m
shares worth 19.31m. Access Kenya is down 28.528% over 1 Year and
trades on a Trailing PE Multiple of 18.618.

Access Kenya share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/4zIr3s

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          14.15
Total Shares Issued:          207,227,120
Market Capitalization:        207,227M
EPS:            0.76
PE:                18.618

Kenya Airways was unchanged at 45.00 and traded 74,100 shares. Kenya
Airways met Outsize Buy Side Demand at 41.75 and twice and reported
1st Half Earnings of 3.11 per share and if that can be maintained We
are looking at a Forward PE of below 7.5.

ScanGroup was unchanged at 60.00 and traded 22,200 shares.

TPS Serena was unchanged at 68.00 and traded 14,200 shares.

CMC Holdings shaved off 2.008% to close at 12.20 and traded 74,900 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

Nation was marked down 1.898% to close at 155.00 on just 900 shares.
Standard did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 3rd at the Bourse. KCB eased 1.12% to
close at 22.00 and traded a 21.75-22.50 range and 1.291m shares worth
28.653m. KCB trades on a Trailing  PE of 12.092 and an Implied Forward
PE of below 8.00. A Re Rating is overdue and its timing probably
coincident or ahead of the Full Year Earnings Release.

KCB share price data here www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/bshUrU

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          22.25
Total Shares Issued:          2,950,169,088
Market Capitalization:        65,641M
EPS:            1.84
PE:                12.092

Equity Bank traded 4th. Equity Bank was unchanged at 25.00 and traded
a 24.75-25.75 range and 966,600 shares worth 24.17m. Equity Bank
accelerated Earnings about 55% at the 3rd Quarter Mark and trades on a
Trailing PE of just over 22.00.

Barclays Bank fell 4.30833% to close at 55.50. 60.00 was Key Chart
Support and we have accelerated through that Level. Barclays Bank was
trading at 55.00 -5.17% session Lows into the Close. Barclays Bank
traded 234,000 shares worth 13.064m. Barclays Bank trades on a
Trailing PE of 12.33 at a price of 55.50 and has posted a 32.547% 1
Year Return. Barclays has come 70.00 Levels which was a 2 Year +
Closing High and posted in July this Year.

Barclays Bank share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/3FrB3X

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          58.00
Total Shares Issued:          1,357,884,032
Market Capitalization:        78,757M
EPS:            4.50
PE:                12.889

COOP Bank was unchanged at 19.00 and traded an 18.50-19.10 range and
traded 633,200 shares worth 12.056m. COOP Bank hit a Sequence of All
Time Highs in October and peaked at 21.50 26th October. COOP Bank has
posted a 112.067% 1 Year Return and trades on a Trailing PE of just
over 22.00.
StanChart firmed 1.66% to close at 245.00 and stretched to trade at
250.00 +3.73% at the Finish. StanChart traded 35,300 shares worth
8.649m. Stanchart has posted a 70.99% 1 Year Return and has retreated
from 313.00 Its 2010 and All Time High of 6th August.

Kenya Re fell 2.664% to close at 10.95. Kenya Re traded a 10.90-11.40
range and 48,100 shares. There was a 4-1 Supply versus Demand
Imbalance at the Close. Kenya Re has posted a 0.941% 1 Year Return and
is 5.288% above its 52 week Closing Low of 10.40. Kenya Re trades on a
Trailing PE of 4.95.

Kenya Re share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/as8dhu

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:          11.25
Total Shares Issued:          600,000,000
Market Capitalization:        6,750M
EPS:            2.21
PE:                5.090

Jubilee eased 1.95% to close at 192.00 and traded 2,700 shares.
PanAfric traded a 100 shares at 72.00 +9.09% The Daily Maximum Up Limit.

NIC was ticked 3.0456% lower to close at 47.75 and traded 17,000 shares.
HFCK firmed 1.02% to close at 24.75 and traded 32,000 shares.
NBK firmed 0.66% to close at 38.00 and traded 49.500 shares.
CFC Stanbic was marked down 3.921% to close at 73.50 and traded 400 shares.
DTB traded 9,900 shares at 130.00 and unchanged.

Centum was unchanged at 21.75 and in fact closed the session trading
at 22.50 +3.45% session Highs. Centum traded 92,800 shares.

Olympia Capital did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

 

Kenya Power was unchanged at 22.25 and traded 520,600 shares. KPLC

rights closed at 0.45 trading yesterday implying Rights Investors did

not expect to turn a Profit of any meaningful sort versus the 19.50
Concession Price. Logically You could have bought the Rights yesterday
for 45 cents Bought the shares at 19.50 and been all in for 19.95
versus a 22.25 market Price and hence before Expenses be looking at an
11.5288% return. KPLC's Rights Issue has in fact now become the High
Beta Barometer for Kenya Markets post Ocampo and in the near term.
KenGen announced it had received $364.5m worth of Loans with which to
pursue its Geothermal Business after the market closed yesterday.
KenGen was unchanged at 16.95 and traded 418,700 shares.
Cables shaved off 10 cents to close at 16.00 and traded 22,100 shares.

EABL was the most active share at the Nairobi Stock Exchange today.
EABL was unchanged at 209.00 and marked down from an Average of
209.98. EABL traded a 208.00-212.00 range and traded 212.00 +1.44%
Session Highs into the Close. EABL trades on a 22.992 Trailing PE.
EABL traded an All Time High of 226.00 on 19th November and retraced
from there before finding a Floor at 205.00 a few sessions ago. EABL
has posted a 55.268% 1 Year Return.

EABL share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/57wrgL

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          209.00
Total Shares Issued:          790,774,336
Market Capitalization:        165,272M
EPS:            9.09
PE:                22.992

Bamburi Cement was the 5th most actively traded share. Bamburi eased a
shilling to close at 195.00 and traded a 192.00-196.00 range and
102,900 shares worth 20.152m.
Athi River Mining traded 2,300 shares at 172.00 and unchanged.
Portland traded 300 shares at 90.00. It was marked down by its Maximum
Limit of 10% yesterday.

Mumias Sugar firmed 0.51% to close at 9.75 and traded 509,300 shares.
Raw Sugar Prices popped through 31 cents yesterday.

KenolKobil eased 0.51% to close at 9.75 and traded 900,700 shares.
Total traded 2,200 shares at 28.00 unchanged.

Sameer bounced 4.28% to close at 7.30 and traded 1,600 shares.

Carbacid improved a shilling to close at 141.00 and traded 1,300 shares.
BOC Kenya did not trade.
Crown Berger eased 25 cents to close at 30.75 and traded 2,200 shares.
Eveready eased 1.72% to close at 2.85 and traded 16,600 shares.
Unga closed at 10.55 and traded 20,100 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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