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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 23rd of December 2010

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here

#Mindspeak RICH TV

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

We all ended up yesterday in Meditarraneo in the Junction. The
Junction was bedecked with Christmas Lights and the Effect of the Palm
Trees not unlike the Minah Salam in Dubai, at Night.

The Entrance to Mina Salam Google Image Search

The Girls always order the same Dish [Pizza Margarita with a Side
Plate of French Fries] and it always hits their Spots. I tried the
Snails which were in an appropriate Garlic and Buttery Sauce. The
Girls have become bold and experimental in their Approach to Food of
Late going by the number of Snails I lost to the Table and the number
of Fresh Oysters I now have to discount from my Order.

We called My Dad during the Meal and he confirmed he is going to sort
out the Serena for New Years Eve. I turned to the Older Girls and said

Serena Beach Mombasa

Wonderful You can take turns dancing with Your Father by the Pool -
They started selling that Position short from the moment I uttered
those words. I turned to Hannah and Nishet and thought ok as long as
You Two hang in there, I am still good.

I said to Nishet What did Dad say?

She says 'He asked Whether 15 Years had been a Life Sentence.'

I said Oh Heck! The Older Girls said 'Oh My God GrandDad.'

Dad has always had a very sharp Tongue.

read more

The Political Power of Social Media Foreign Affairs
Information & Communication Technology

On January 17, 2001, during the impeachment trial of Philippine
President Joseph Estrada, loyalists in the Philippine Congress voted
to set aside key evidence against him. Less than two hours after the
decision was announced, thousands of Filipinos, angry that their
corrupt president might be let off the hook, converged on Epifanio de
los Santos Avenue, a major crossroads in Manila. The protest was
arranged, in part, by forwarded text messages reading, "Go 2 EDSA.
Wear blk." The crowd quickly swelled, and in the next few days, over a
million people arrived, choking traffic in downtown Manila.

The public's ability to coordinate such a massive and rapid response
-- close to seven million text messages were sent that week -- so
alarmed the country's legislators that they reversed course and
allowed the evidence to be presented. Estrada's fate was sealed; by
January 20, he was gone. The event marked the first time that social
media had helped force out a national leader. Estrada himself blamed
"the text-messaging generation" for his downfall.

Since the rise of the Internet in the early 1990s, the world's
networked population has grown from the low millions to the low

This raises an obvious question for the U.S. government: How does the
ubiquity of social media affect U.S. interests, and how should U.S.
policy respond to it?

As the communications landscape gets denser, more complex, and more
participatory, the networked population is gaining greater access to
information, more opportunities to engage in public speech, and an
enhanced ability to undertake collective action. In the political
arena, as the protests in Manila demonstrated, these increased
freedoms can help loosely coordinated publics demand change.

The use of social media tools -- text messaging, e-mail, photo
sharing, social networking, and the like -- does not have a single
preordained outcome. Therefore, attempts to outline their effects on
political action are too often reduced to dueling anecdotes. Do
digital tools enhance democracy? (such as those by Jacob Groshek and
Philip Howard) is that these tools probably do not hurt in the short
run and might help in the long run -- and that they have the most
dramatic effects in states where a public sphere already constrains
the actions of the government.

In response, the U.S. State Department has committed itself to
"Internet freedom" as a specific policy aim. Arguing for the right of
people to use the Internet freely is an appropriate policy for the
United States, both because it aligns with the strategic goal of
strengthening civil society worldwide and because it resonates with
American beliefs about freedom of expression. But attempts to yoke the
idea of Internet freedom to short-term goals -- particularly ones that
are country-specific or are intended to help particular dissident
groups or encourage regime change -- are likely to be ineffective on
average. And when they fail, the consequences can be serious.

The instrumental view is politically appealing, action-oriented, and
almost certainly wrong. It overestimates the value of broadcast media
while underestimating the value of media that allow citizens to
communicate privately among themselves. It overestimates the value of
access to information, particularly information hosted in the West,
while underestimating the value of tools for local coordination. And
it overestimates the importance of computers while underestimating the
importance of simpler tools, such as cell phones.

The challenges of Freegate and Haystack demonstrate how difficult it
is to weaponize social media to pursue country-specific and near-term
policy goals.

Authoritarian governments stifle communication among their citizens
because they fear, correctly, that a better-coordinated populace would
constrain their ability to act without oversight

The more promising way to think about social media is as long-term
tools that can strengthen civil society and the public sphere. In
contrast to the instrumental view of Internet freedom, this can be
called the "environmental" view. According to this conception,
positive changes in the life of a country, including pro-democratic
regime change, follow, rather than precede, the development of a
strong public sphere. This is not to say that popular movements will
not successfully use these tools to discipline or even oust their
governments, but rather that U.S. attempts to direct such uses are
likely to do more harm than good. Considered in this light, Internet
freedom is a long game, to be conceived of and supported not as a
separate agenda but merely as an important input to the more
fundamental political freedoms.

After all, the old saying that every country is three meals away from
revolution turned out to be sadly incorrect in the twentieth century;
it is possible for leaders to survive even when millions die.

Political freedom has to be accompanied by a civil society literate
enough and densely connected enough to discuss the issues presented to
the public. In a famous study of political opinion after the 1948 U.S.
presidential election, the sociologists Elihu Katz and Paul Lazarsfeld
discovered that mass media alone do not change people's minds;
instead, there is a two-step process. Opinions are first transmitted
by the media, and then they get echoed by friends, family members, and
colleagues. It is in this second, social step that political opinions
are formed. This is the step in which the Internet in general, and
social media in particular, can make a difference. As with the
printing press, the Internet spreads not just media consumption but
media production as well -- it allows people to privately and publicly
articulate and debate a welter of conflicting views.

Access to information is far less important, politically, than access
to conversation.

Disciplined and coordinated groups, whether businesses or governments,
have always had an advantage over undisciplined ones: they have an
easier time engaging in collective action because they have an orderly
way of directing the action of their members. Social media can
compensate for the disadvantages of undisciplined groups by reducing
the costs of coordination.

This condition of shared awareness -- which is increasingly evident in
all modern states -- creates what is commonly called "the dictator's
dilemma" but that might more accurately be described by the phrase
coined by the media theorist Briggs: "the conservative dilemma," so
named because it applies not only to autocrats but also to democratic
governments and to religious and business leaders. The dilemma is
created by new media that increase public access to speech or
assembly; with the spread of such media, whether photocopiers or Web
browsers, a state accustomed to having a monopoly on public speech
finds itself called to account for anomalies between its view of
events and the public's. The two responses to the conservative dilemma
are censorship and propaganda. But neither of these is as effective a
source of control as the enforced silence of the citizens. The state
will censor critics or produce propaganda as it needs to, but both of
those actions have higher costs than simply not having any critics to
silence or reply to in the first place. But if a government were to
shut down Internet access or ban cell phones, it would risk
radicalizing otherwise pro-regime citizens or harming the economy.

"the cute cat theory of digital activism."

In fact, the adoption of these tools (especially cell phones) as a way
to coordinate and document real-world action is so ubiquitous that it
will probably be a part of all future political movements.

The approach creates an additional dilemma for the state -- there can
be no modern economy without working phones -- and so its ability to
shut down communications over large areas or long periods is

Only by switching from an instrumental to an environmental view of the
effects of social media on the public sphere will the United States be
able to take advantage of the long-term benefits these tools promise
-- even though that may mean accepting short-term disappointment.


The Political Power of Social Media
Submitted by Aly-Khan S. December 22, 2010 - 11:23pm.

This is simply outstanding Scholarship, nuanced and as 'sexy' a Read
as I have found of late. I commend You for it and I think You were
appropriately dismissive of Gladwell's Conclusions which were a
complete Non-Sequitur.

I like Your Long and Short View Contrast. This is a disjunctive Moment
we have entered. I reside in Kenya, which I sense is in fact, a
Laboratory Experiment. Ten Years ago there were less than 10,000
Mobile Phones. Today Statistically we are at 1 per Adult and the skew
is very late in the Decade. Effectively the Mobile Phone has taken us
from an 'Aerogram' World into one where it is as Flat as a Pancake and
Everyone is always on.

The World Over we are in a Disjunctive Phase. We are entering a 'new
Normal.' Its like the Early stage Start Up Phase of Something. Some
Things will cross their Tipping Points and Tip like the Phillipines
and in others It flares and expires or the State fights back

And here I think as You note the US has found itself in an
Intellectual Cul De Sac. The US cannot change the Environment. And
this is the Challenge Assange and Wikileaks has laid down in such a
Sun Tzu Way. I think Hillary Clinton such have pinned a Medal on the
Man. By exposing the Minutiae of US Communications, He is actually
attesting to the US Bona Fides in a way no amount of expensive
Propaganda ever did. Take the 'China in Africa' Story. Your Diplomats
are coming out of Wikileaks smelling of Roses.

Once again, It has been a Pleasure to read this, it really has.

Aly-Khan Satchu

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3129
Pound 1.5422
Yen 83.13 -> Repatriation?
Swiss Franc 0.9504
Dollar Index 80.45
Aussie 1.0028 -> crossed Parity after a long Period below
Rand 6.7328
India Rupee 45.02
South Korean Won 1148.15

The euro dropped to an all-time low of CHF1.2440 versus the Swiss
franc, according to trading platform EBS via data provider CQG. The
franc also strengthened against the dollar to the highest levels since


Euro remains in the Cross Fire but High Beta is closing strong Note
Aussie through Parity and the Rand is firm as well.

Swiss Franc versus The Dollar INO

Thats an Interesting Chart Pattern.

Probably worth Buying 2 Month Volatility.

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World Equity Markets At A Glance
World Of Finance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 26.33 points, or 0.23%, to
11559.49, its highest close since Aug. 28, 2008. The measure's
financial components led its advance, with Bank of America up 40
cents, or 3.1%, to $13.38, while J.P. Morgan Chase rose 1.16, or 2.8%,
to 42.16.The Nasdaq Composite edged up 3.87, or 0.15%, to 2671.48, a
three-year closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced
4.24, or 0.34%, to 1258.84, its highest close since Sept. 8, 2008.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced,
rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.6% in
July through September, above the previous estimate of 2.5%.

Nike shed 5.35, or 5.8%, to 86.95. Emerging middle-class consumers in
countries from China to Brazil helped propel a 22% increase in the
company's fiscal second-quarter earnings. But investors were concerned
by a warning that for the next three or four quarters, Nike expects
higher costs for labor, cotton and transportation.

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Commodity Markets At A Glance WSJ

Crude-oil futures on Wednesday settled above $90 a barrel for the
first time since October 2008, riding a growing wave of optimism about
the global recovery.

Live Crude Oil chart 90.68 Last

Live 24 Hour Spot Gold KITCO 1386.20

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Soft Commodities at a Glance INO

CC.H11.E    Mar 2011 (E)    2990    +15    +0.50%
COFFEE 13 Year Highs
KC.H11.E    Mar 2011 (E)    232.90    -0.95    -0.40%   
CT.H11.E    Mar 2011 (E)    154.12    -5.00    -3.19%   
OJ.F11.E    Jan 2011 (E)    168.40    +6.45+3.97%
SB.H11.E    Mar 2011 (E)    33.26    +0.24+0.74%   


Throw in Tea and You have a Basket which will deliver at least 25%
annualised going Forward.

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Brazil Coffee Crop to Drop 23%, Pushing Up Price Bloomberg

Coffee production in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower, may drop to
the lowest in four years in 2011, pushing up prices as trees enter the
lower-yielding half of a two-year cycle, Agriculture Minister Wagner
Rossi said.Growers will harvest 37 million bags, down 23 percent from
48.1 million bags estimated for this year, Rossi said in an interview
in Brasilia today. Coffee prices will likely rise next year as global
demand outpaces supplies amid declining stockpiles, he said.

“Prices will likely remain on a steady rise,” Rossi, 67, said at his
office. “World demand is firm and global stockpiles are low.”

Coffee, which has surged 72 percent this year, extended a rally to a
13-year high earlier today on concern adverse weather in Brazil and
India will pare global supplies. Arabica coffee for March delivery
reached $2.4225, the highest since June 1997. It fell 1.6 percent to
$2.3005 per pound at 12:51 p.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Output in Brazil, which ships about a third of world exports, usually
drops every other year because trees can’t sustain high yields for two
straight harvests. Fungus that was found in coffee crops in
southeastern Brazil because of excess rains won’t hurt production,
Rossi said.

“The coffee blight is a problem but not a threat to output,” Rossi
said. “The improvement in farmers’ income will help them fight the
fungus by investing more in their crops.”

Commercial farm lending may rise in the crop year that began in July
as growers invest more in machinery and increase planted area to
benefit from rising commodities prices, Rossi said. Lending grew 29
percent in the past harvesting season to about $49.8 billion, the
ministry said.

Sugar March 2011 INO 33.26 +0.24 (+0.74%)

Last Price    33.26
Open Int.    244238
Contract High    33.65
Contract Low    11.9
First Delivery    2011-05-15
Contract High Date    2010-12-21
Contract Low Date    2008-10-24
Expiration    2011-02-28


Record Multi Year Highs.

You will recall the Options Strategy I promoted when it was trading 14cents.

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Billionaire Anil Ambani’s companies borrowed $3 billion from lenders including China Development Bank Corp Bloomberg
Emerging Markets

Billionaire Anil Ambani’s companies borrowed $3 billion from lenders
including China Development Bank Corp. to gain cheaper funding after
rupee borrowing costs climbed the most in four years.

Reliance Communications Ltd., India’s second-largest mobile phone
operator, will borrow a part of $1.9 billion from the state-owned
bank, which lends to support China’s policy aims, using $1.3 billion
to repay existing credits, the company said Dec. 15. Reliance Power
Ltd. will borrow $1.1 billion to help fund an electricity plant.
Neither disclosed the cost of the loans. The yield on India’s
top-rated five-year rupee corporate debt rose 73 basis points to 8.95
percent this year, the biggest gain since 2006, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.

“Reliance has to repay the debt and the China loans are an immediate
solution because interest rates there are 1 to 3 percent cheaper,”
Taina Erajuuri, who helps manage the equivalent of $1.2 billion of
emerging-market stocks at Helsinki-based Fim Asset Management,
including Indian stocks, said in an interview Dec. 21.

India has the highest 10-year government bond yields among Asia’s
major economies, and the nation’s companies face rising borrowing
costs in rupees and dollars. China Development Bank sold one-year debt
last month at a 2.61 percent coupon, letting it support the global
expansion of Chinese companies. The bank provided a $10 billion loan
to Brazil’s state-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA last year,
and a $1 billion credit line in March to Russian bank VEB.

Average dollar yields in India have climbed to 5.17 percent from 4.27
percent in October, according to HSBC Holdings Plc indexes.

read more

Uganda feared Kenyan PM backlash Aljazeera
Law & Politics

Uganda believed Kenya's prime minister might back pro-opposition
groups to undermine the government in revenge for its stance on
Kenya's disputed 2007 election, a cable from the whistleblower
website, WikiLeaks, has revealed.Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan
president, congratulated Mwai Kibaki, the Kenyan president,soon after
the election, angering Raila Odinga, the prime minister, who said the
election had been rigged to keep Kibaki in power.

In a June 29, 2009 cable to Washington,  Felix Kulayigye, the Ugandan
army spokesman is reported to have told an embassy official that
Odinga was also trying to intercede for Joseph Kony, the leader of the
Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebel group.Known for abducting young
girls to serve as sex slaves and young boys to fight, the LRA fought
Museveni's government for nearly 20 years until 2005 when they were
ejected from their bases in northern Uganda and South Sudan.Kony was
indicted by The Hague-based International Criminal Court on charges of
war crimes and crimes against humanity.Kulayigye, according to the
cable, told an embassy official "that Kenyan prime minister Raila
Odinga may be making common cause with the Acholi opposition in Uganda
and diaspora elements in Nairobi to advocate on behalf of LRA leader
Joseph Kony".

Odinga's spokesman in Nairobi told Reuters that Odinga had described
the cable's contents relating to him as 'far-fetched'.Kulayigye said
Odinga had also written to Barack Obama, the US president, requesting
that the Americans halt its operations against the LRA.

"Odinga, an ethnic Luo, reportedly is attempting to unite the
Luo-speaking communities of western Kenya, southern Sudan, and
northern Uganda," the cable said. Kony is an Acholi, one of the
Luo-speaking tribes of northern Uganda.

"The name Raila Odinga did not come out of my mouth at any time during
our meeting, that's a total fabrication of WikiLeaks," he said.

During a visit to Uganda last week, Odinga joined Museveni at a
campaign rally in the east. Museveni is seeking re-election in polls
set for April next year.

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The Rush for Africa's Land NYT Video Mali

The Malian government has leased huge tracts of farmland to
international investors. Opponents call this a new form of colonial

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Malawi's inflation was at its lowest level since record-keeping started in the early 1980's Reuters
World Of Finance

Malawi's headline consumer inflation slowed to a record low in
November as food inflation continued to ease, the National Statistics
Office said on Wednesday.In a statement posted on its website, the
agency said consumer inflation slowed to 6.4 percent year-on-year in
November from 6.7 percent in October.Data showed Malawi's inflation
was at its lowest level since record-keeping started in the early
1980's.Food inflation accounts for more than 50 percent of the
inflation basket in Malawi and was at 3.2 percent in November,
compared to 6.3 percent in the same month last year.Rural inflation
was at 5.5 percent in November, compared with 8.1 percent in urban
areas.Aside from a brief spike above 10 percent in December 2008,
Malawi's inflation has been in single digits since December
2007.Southern African nation have had a bumper harvest of the food
staple maize, which has helped ease inflationary pressures across the

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Lights camera Africa The Economist

AN AFRICAN academic with a coiffed mane is sipping coffee in a
Ghanaian airport when he spots a pulpy Nigerian film on an overhead
screen. “A travesty, a grave crime,” he splutters. “Such imbecile
images should never be shown in this country. They are veritably
poisoning our culture.”

It is hard to avoid Nigerian films in Africa. Public buses show them,
as do many restaurants and hotels. Nollywood, as the business is
known, churns out about 50 full-length features a week, making it the
world’s second most prolific film industry after India’s Bollywood.
The Nigerian business capital, Lagos, is said by locals to have
produced more films than there are stars in the sky. The streets are
flooded with camera crews shooting on location. Only the government
employs more people.

Nigerian films are as popular abroad as they are at home. Ivorian
rebels in the bush stop fighting when a shipment of DVDs arrives from
Lagos. Zambian mothers say their children talk with accents learnt
from Nigerian television. When the president of Sierra Leone asked
Genevieve Nnaji, a Lagosian screen goddess, to join him on the
campaign trail he attracted record crowds at rallies. Millions of
Africans watch Nigerian films every day, many more than see American
fare. And yet Africans have mixed feelings about Nollywood.

Among Africa’s elites, hostility is almost uniform. Jean Rouch, a
champion of indigenous art in Niger, has compared Nollywood to the
AIDS virus. Cultural critics complain about “macabre scenes full of
sorcery” in the films. The more alarmist describe Nigerian directors
and producers as voodoo priests casting malign spells over audiences
in other countries. They talk of the “Nigerianisation” of Africa,
worrying that the whole continent has come to “snap its fingers the
Nigerian way”.

“The Nigerians will eat everything we have,” says a former official at
the Ghanaian ministry of chieftaincy and culture.

The first true Nollywood film resulted from an ill-advised business
venture. In 1992 Kenneth Nnebue, a trader, ordered a large consignment
of blank videotapes from Taiwan. Finding them hard to sell, he hired a
theatre director to make a cheap film and copied it onto the tapes to
boost their appeal. “Living in Bondage”, the story of a farmer in a
big city who loses his wife and is haunted by her ghost, sold more
than half a million copies.

Many Nigerians still remember the first time they saw “Living in
Bondage”. Odion, a drug addict with a toothless smirk on a street
corner in central Lagos, says, “All of us kids at the time, even the
under-tens, watched it and we just had to have more. I tell you, I
tried many things since then. None is as addictive.”

All scenes are shot on location and with a shoestring budget of no
more than $100,000. Most of the financiers are based in a vast,
chaotic market called Idumota. It is a maze within a labyrinth. Crowds
push through narrow, covered alleys. The sound of honking motorbikes
is drowned out by blaring television sets showing film trailers. The
flickering screens light up dim stalls lined with thousands of DVDs on
narrow wooden shelves.

The films’ plots too have strong pan-African appeal. They often
revolve around the travails of new arrivals in big cities—an
experience familiar across the continent. The epic film “One God One
Nation” portrays a Muslim man and a Christian woman who struggle to
marry. “Caught in the Act” shows a wife who is wrongly accused by her
own mother-in-law of abducting a child. Nollywood films depict
families whose faith has been shattered, whose certainties have been
undermined. They show ordinary people struggling to make sense of a
fast-changing, unkind world. Aspirations are dashed. Trust is
forsaken. The overarching theme of Nollywood films is Africa’s
troubled journey to modernity. Because Hollywood films tend to show
people at the other end of that journey, they fail to resonate.

Other Africans may complain about the cultural infiltration of their
countries. But Nollywood is no modern-day colonialist. Nigerian films
are made by private individuals who do not receive government funds.
They are distributed by small companies who must overcome official
barriers to trade. And they are bought by consenting (indeed, highly
enthusiastic) consumers. As Irving Kristol, a conservative American
commentator who died in 2009, said of Hollywood’s international
success: “It happened because the world wanted it to happen.”

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Kenya port volume up 12 pct in first nine mths of 2010 Reuters
Kenyan Economy

NAIROBI, December 22 (Reuters) - Container volumes handled by Kenya's
Mombasa port grew 12 percent in the first nine months of 2010 as the
world economy recovered, the port operator said on Wednesday.In
addition to Kenya, the port handles cargo to and from Uganda, Burundi,
Rwanda, south Sudan, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and
Somalia.Zambia, Ethiopia and Malawi are also considering using the
Mombasa port as a gateway for some overseas markets.

"With the world economy sluggishly recovering from a two-year
downturn, many ports have not fully recovered from negative growth,"
the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) managing director, Gichiri Ndua, said
in a review seen by Reuters.

"It is therefore a blessing that the Port of Mombasa experienced
modest growth and we are upbeat that we shall continue to perform even

The facility handled 513,000 20-foot equivalent container units (TEU)
over the period, up from 460,000 in the first nine months of 2009, and
much above its designed capacity of 250,000 TEU a year.In tonnage, the
container terminal at the port handled 14 million tonnes in the same
period compared with 13.7 million tonnes handled in the first nine
months of 2009.Ndua said among targets they aimed to hit in 2010/2011
was attaining or exceeding a ship turnaround period of three days and
a return on investment of 14.7 percent.

"In our continued effort to improve operational efficiency, we have
started receiving some of the equipment that we had ordered," he said.

Ndua said the construction of a second container terminal and dredging
of the port's main channel would begin next year.The second terminal,
whose first phase should be operational in 2013, is expected to cost
an estimated $235 million. It will have a 1.2 million TEU capacity.KPA
also hopes to dredge the port to a deeper 15 metres from 13 metres to
enable bigger ships to call at the port.The port of Mombasa handled a
total of 19.06 million tonnes in 2009, up from 16.41 million in the
previous year.The container terminal handled 618,816 TEUs in 2009, up
from 615,733 in 2008. Over a quarter of 2009's total throughput, or
4.98 million tonnes, was transit cargo. (Reporting by Mark Denge,
editing by George Obulutsa)


Highly correlated to the Kenyan and Regional economy.

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Kenya Sells 15.3 Billion Shillings of 2-Year, 15-Year Bonds Bloomberg
Kenyan Bonds - Long Term

Kenya’s central bank sold 15.3 billion shillings of 2- and 15-year
bonds in a sale where demand exceeded supply by 1.62 times.

The central bank received bids totaling 24.3 billion shillings for the
securities, it said in an e-mailed statement from Nairobi today. It
originally offered 15 billion shillings of the notes.

The weighted average rate for successful bids on the two- year
securities was 4.586 percent compared with 3.698 percent at the
previous sale. For the 15-year bonds, it was 10.923 percent, up from
9.980 percent.


Yields have backed up.

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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.24 points to close at 96.49.
The NSE20 firmed 2.90 points to close at 4337.06m.
Market Cap was 1.151168 Trillion versus 1.148235 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 180m versus 349.259m with Safaricom the most
active shares and firming 1.125% to close at 4.70 and AccessKenya
snapped a 13 Session Losing Streak where it had retreated 19.00 before
todays 0.39% Up Tick.
3rd Quarter GDP will be a Rising Tide early Next Year when the Market
returns to Full Throttle.
Politics is a Known Unknown but the 10% retreat from 2010 Highs
probably priced that in, as well.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Tea Prices were firm this week and Coffee Prices are at 13 Year Highs.
Both Price Curves are I believe headed even higher.
Williamson Tea [trades on a Trailing and Forward PE of less than 2.00]
rallied 4.24% to close at 172.00 and was trading at 180.00 +9.09% at
the Finish. Williamson Tea traded 20,000 shares worth 3.452m.
Sasini Tea and Coffee firmed 0.39% to close at 13.00 and traded 5,200
shares. The PE is 3.00.
Kakuzi traded 900 shares and closed at 80.00 -1.23%. Kakuzi trades on
a 4.00 Handle Price Earnings Multiple.
Rea Vipingo traded 200 shares at 15.50 -0.64%

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


shares volume     9,041,500
total turnover     42,688,840
avg price     4.72 CLOSING PRICE 4.70 +1.125%
high price     4.75
low price     4.60
last price     4.75


Safaricom firmed 1.125% to close at 4.70 and was trading at 4.75 +2.5%
into the Close. Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the
Bourse and Had Buy Side Interest showing for 23.516m shares versus
6.981m shares worth of Supply all the way up to 5.00. Safaricom traded
9.041m shares worth 42.688m and remains oversold here at a 12.00 Price
Earnings Handle.

AccessKenya traded a 13.00-13.55 range and closed 0.39% firmer at
13.00. AccessKenya snapped a 13 Session losing Streak in which it had
retreated 19.00%. I said the following to Bloomberg
http://bit.ly/dMrXPa T “It was declining even before the profit
warning; I guess the market had a sense about what was coming,”
Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent stock-market analyst,
said in a phone interview. “It is now getting a bounce. Operationally,
they are doing alright.” The company said Dec. 20 it expects 2010
profit to fall by at least 25 percent from last year because of
depreciation and foreign-exchange losses.

Kenya Airways firmed a further 0.545% to close at 46.00. Kenya Airways
traded a 45.75-46.50 range and 39,800 shares. Kenya Airways reported
1st Half EPS at 3.11 and if that Run Rate is maintained, the share
Price looks a Value Proposition at a Forward Implied PE of 7.39.

ScanGroup improved 1.66% to close at 61.50 and traded 52,300 shares.

TPS Serena was unchanged at 68.00 and traded 34,500 shares all at that Level.

Nation eased 0.63% to close at 158.00 and traded 14,000 shares.
Standard was low ticked 6.025% to close at 43.25 on just 200 shares.

CMC Holdings retreated 3.92% to close at 12.25 on light trading of
CarGen did not trade.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

For the Banks I would have thought the 3rd Quarter GDP Number was
surely a Rising Tide.

Equity Bank traded 3rd and rallied 3% to close at 25.75. Equity Bank
traded a 25.25-26.00 range and 864,700 shares worth 22.378m.
COOP Bank was the 2nd most active Counter after Safaricom. COOP Bank
was unchanged at 18.95 and traded a 18.90-19.45 range and 1.367m
shares worth 25.969m. COOP Bank retreated from 21.50 All Time Highs
but that Retreat looks complete now.
StanChart eased 0.4% to close at 249.00 and traded a 249.00-256.00
range and 55,000 shares worth 13.706m.
Barclays Bank eased 0.85% to close at 58.00. Barclays Bank traded a
58.00-59.00 range and 145,700 shares worth 8.493m.
KCB eased 1.15% to close at 21.50 and traded 182,900 shares only.

CFC StanBic eased 2.1% to close at 70.00 and traded 27,700 shares.
DTB eased a shilling to close at 129.00 and traded 20,400 shares.
HFCK was unchanged at 25.00 and traded 119,500 shares.
NBK gave back 3.144% to close at 38.50 and traded 38,800 shares.
NIC traded 146,100 shares all at 46.00 and unchanged. NIC trades on a
Forward of below 10.00.

Centum rallied 2.298% to close at 22.25 and traded 90,500 shares.

Kenya Re dipped back into the Negative Column for the Year and closed
0.45% easier at 10.90 with 35,400 shares traded.
Jubilee and PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital traded higher to close at 5.95 with 5,100 shares traded.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Kenya Power's Rights Issue was guillotined yesterday and the
Subscription Ratio to be announced in January. KPLC firmed 1.15% to
close at 22.00 and was trading at 22.25 +2.3% at the close. KPLC
traded 427,900 shares worth 9.497m.
KenGen firmed 0.585% to close at 17.20 and traded out the Session at
17.30 +1.17%. KenGen traded 129,900 shares.
Cables closed firmer at 15.95 and traded 5,000 shares.

ARM improved 1.14% to close at 177.00 and traded 22,400 shares. ARM
has posted an 80.38% 1 Year Return.
Bamburi Cement and East African Portland [which is at a 52 week low]
did not trade.

Unga rebounded 7.317% to close at 11.00 on 500 shares.

KenolKobil bounced 1.04% to close at 9.70 and traded 156,500 shares.
Total was unchanged at 28.25 and traded 12,500 shares.

Mumias Sugar firmed 0.54% to close at 9.30 and traded 454,900 shares.
Mumias Sugar has diverged by a very wide margin from the Sugar Price
which is at Record and Multi Year Highs.

EABL was unchanged at 209.00 and traded 14,000 shares.

BAT closed at 272.00 and traded 7,200 shares.

Sameer closed 5 cents better at 7.35 and traded 20,100 shares.
Eveready firmed 1.69% to close at 3.00 and traded 30,700 shares.
Crown Berger closed 4.47% lower at 32.00 on just 200 shares.

BOC Kenya and Carbacid did not trade for the 2nd Day running.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2010

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