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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"In the depth of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay an
invincible summer." -- Albert Camus

"Blessed are the hearts that can bend; they shall never be broken." --
Albert Camus

"The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely
free that your very existence is an act of rebellion." -- Albert Camus

On Saturday Erdogan briefed journalists on board his lavish new
presidential jet, saying it would be inappropriate for the United
States to arm the Kurdish PYD which controls Kobani, besieged by
Islamic State forces for more than a month.

Less than an hour after the plane touched down in Istanbul, President
Barack Obama spoke to Erdogan by telephone, notifying him that weapons
drops to Kobani's defender's were going ahead.

"U.S. actions certainly humiliated Erdogan. The story of the air-drop
is one of Turkish irrelevance," said Aaron Stein, associate fellow at
the Royal United Services Institute.

"Now there's this situation called Kobani. What's the significance for
it? Around 200,000 people came to my country and there are no
civilians left inside apart from 2,000 PYD fighters," he said on
Thursday, branding the PYD terrorists.

"To be frank, Turkish politicians may be outstanding masters of
domestic statecraft, but they are junior leaguers when it comes to
foreign policy at a time when ISIS threatens to destabilize the
region," said Atilla Yesilada, an economist with New-York based Global
Source Partners.

Conclusions

The Reason being a rather ham fisted attempt to manufacture a CW Trip
Wire in Syria and then an insistence that Obama's red line had been
crossed.

In March of 1977, several weeks into the Carter Administration,
"Saturday Night Live" featured a skit called "Ask President Carter."
The premise was a radio program, hosted by Walter Cronkite (Bill
Murray), on which callers brought their problems to President Carter
(Dan Aykroyd). After walking a postal worker through a highly
technical repair to her letter-sorting machine ("There's a three-digit
setting there, where the post and the armature meet"), the President
expertly talks a man down from an acid trip. "You did some orange
sunshine, Peter," Carter tells him. "Just remember you're a living
organism on this planet, and you're very safe.... Relax, stay inside,
and listen to some music, O.K.? Do you have any Allman Brothers?"*

Islamic State refers to "the same texts that the Saudi government and
official clergy do on religious questions," and there are
"similarities in terms of enforcing public morality," Gause said. The
group's biggest threat to the kingdom is "its ability to recruit
sympathizers within Saudi Arabia."

Adding to Saudi concerns is the fact that so many Saudi citizens are
among the jihadists fighting in Syria and Iraq. There are about 2,500
of them in Syria, the New York-based Soufan Group, a security research
firm, estimated in a June report. Twelve of 21 Islamic State suicide
bombings in Iraq since last month were carried out by Saudis,
London-based al-Hayat newspaper said last week.

Jihadists who returned to the kingdom from past wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan used skills they learned there to attack Saudi targets.
Their appeal was enhanced by the fact that "Islam is essentially
republican in spirit and more than skeptical about monarchy," said
Chas Freeman, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

"Those who are attracted to movements like Da'esh are potentially
lethal boomerangs against the Al Saud,'' Freeman said in an e-mailed
response to questions, using the Arabic acronym for Islamic State.
''They consider violence against those with whom they disagree a
religious duty.''

Ottawa shooting appears to be the latest in a series of attacks
carried out by individuals with no clear link to terrorist groups

The shooting death of a Canadian soldier outside Parliament in Ottawa,
by a suspect named Michael Zehaf-Bibeau who was then killed inside the
building, appears to be the latest in a series of "lone wolf" attacks
inspired by radical Islam.

"It's obvious that lone wolf terrorism has increased in the past few
years, but that was already the case before ISIS came into existence."
says Peter Neumann, Director of the International Centre for the Study
of Radicalization and Political Violence in London. "It was adopted as
a deliberate strategy by al-Qaeda in the late 2000s" and was
repeatedly encouraged by Anwar al-Awlaki, the American-born radical
preacher based in Yemen, who wrote in the online al-Qaeda magazine
Inspire: "It is better to support the prophet by attacking those who
slander him than it is to travel to land of Jihad like Iraq or
Afghanistan." Awlaki was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2011.

Conclusions

The Lone Wolf leverages the asymmetric Angle

Lone-Wolf Attacks Duel With Airstrikes in New Warfare Era
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-23/terrorist-calls-for-lone-wolf-acts-precede-ottawa-attacks.html

Six needle-nosed CF-18 fighter jets took off from the Canadian Forces
base in Cold Lake, Alberta, Oct. 21 to join the coalition fighting
Islamic State. The next day, a convert to Islam attacked symbols of
the Canadian state, killing a soldier and riddling the parliament with
bullets.

As the U.S., Canada and their allies armed with supersonic fighters,
laser-guided bombs and unmanned aircraft strike the extremist group in
Iraq and Syria, the terrorists are urging individual Muslims worldwide
to kill non-believers with guns and knives.

"There have always been lone-wolf attacks throughout history, but the
numbers are increasing, and it's getting more difficult to track these
individuals in terms of when, where, or who these lone wolves may be,"
Simon said. "The game changer is the Internet. What the Internet does
is allow groups like Islamic State to put out a call around the
globe."

"This is an asymmetric style of attack, the timing is quite
meaningful, the targets are highly symbolic -- Canadian power and the
Canadian military."

The richest hunting ground for these new 21st century serial
killers/terrorists is among the disaffected in the Western World
https://rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2508.pdf

IS and the likes of Al-Shabaab have proven accomplished and
frightening and frightful exponents of the 21st century digital
ecosystem. And what is so fascinating is that their media efforts all
point West. The richest hunting ground for these new 21st century
serial killers/terrorists is among the disaffected in the Western
World.

The Outsider or The Stranger (French: L'Étranger) is a novel by Albert
Camus published in 1942. Its theme and outlook are often cited as
exemplars of Camus's philosophy of the absurd and existentialism,
though Camus personally rejected the latter label.[citation needed]

The titular character is Meursault, an indifferent Algerian ("a
citizen of France domiciled in North Africa, a man of the
Mediterranean, an homme du midi yet one who hardly partakes of the
traditional Mediterranean culture")[2] who, after attending his
mother's funeral, apathetically kills an Arab man whom he recognises
in French Algiers. The story is divided into two parts: Meursault's
first-person narrative view before and after the murder, respectively.

In January 1955, Camus said, "I summarized The Stranger a long time
ago, with a remark I admit was highly paradoxical: 'In our society any
man who does not weep at his mother's funeral runs the risk of being
sentenced to death.' I only meant that the hero of my book is
condemned because he does not play the game."[3]

The decrease in oil prices is costing Venezuela approximately $728m in
revenues for every dollar of price decline.

Conclusions

He is not wrong see below.

Iran wants "sanctions lifted immediately," while negotiators for six
international powers want an "incremental and reversible suspension"
of economic penalties, based on Iran's compliance with limits on its
nuclear activities, Gerard Araud, who served as France's chief nuclear
negotiator with Iran from 2006 to 2009, said at the breakfast.

Euro 1.2654
Dollar Index 85.77
Japan Yen 107.98
Swiss Franc 0.9532
Pound 1.6038
Aussie 0.8755
India Rupee 61.19
South Korea Won 1057.77
Brazil Real 2.4988
Egypt Pound 7.1482
South Africa Rand 10.9670

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.2654 [1.2000 Target]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Contract High Date      2008-07-07 Contract High        141.66
Contract Low Date       2009-02-19  Contract Low        64.56

My point is that Barack Obama has taken control of the crude oil
cockpit; he is in charge of the airplane. He has control of all the
instruments and it has been a wild ride for the last few weeks, which
could get a whole lot wilder.

Don't Assume Saudi Crude Drop Was Move to Bolster Prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-23/saudi-oil-supply-drop-unlikely-to-herald-new-policy.html

Seafood is a sweet spot in Japanese exports this year that's
pushing sales of food abroad to a record and gaining strength as the
yen weakens.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-22/seafood-proves-sweet-spot-in-japan-s-exports-on-weak-yen.html

Food shipments increased every month this year through September as
the currency fell 4 percent, putting them on course to exceed the
all-time high of 436 billion yen ($4.1 billion) in 2013. That
contrasts with total exports from Japan, which haven't recovered to
their 2008 peak, even as data yesterday showed increases for motor
vehicles, ships and steel.

Demand in Asia and the Middle East for everything from Japanese
scallops to the finest cuts of tuna for sashimi is spurring seafood
sales that account for about 40 percent of food exports. While cars,
machinery and electronics remain powerhouses for Japan, food shipments
mean jobs in rural areas and are vital to the Abe administration's
regional revitalization.

Japan Seafood
http://savingjapan.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/seafood_2001.jpg

Cocoa futures climbed 15 percent this year
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-22/manhattan-s-mr-chocolate-proves-cost-surge-not-a-problem.html

No country consumes more chocolate than the U.S., where sales will
climb to a record $17.75 billion this year, market researcher
Euromonitor International Plc estimates. As demand grows, producers
including Hershey (HSY) Co. are raising prices to cover ingredient
costs. Cocoa climbed 2.2 percent last month on concern that the deadly
Ebola outbreak will disrupt shipments from West Africa, the world's
biggest growing region.

Cocoa futures climbed 15 percent this year, pushing the cost of cocoa
butter, the main chocolate ingredient, up 5 percent. That prompted
chocolate manufacturers including Hershey and Mars Inc. to raise
prices in July. The Bloomberg Commodity Index slumped 6.8 percent this
year, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities lost 0.2
percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index rose 5.5 percent.

Even with higher prices, chocolate sales rose 1.9 percent to 2.2
billion pounds (1 million metric tons) in the 52 weeks ended Oct. 5,
compared with a year earlier, according to market researcher IRI,
which tracks data from retailers including supermarkets and
convenience stores. Chicago-based IRI declined to provide a 2014
forecast.

The U.S. isn't alone in its love for chocolate. Global cocoa
processing increased 3.7 percent to 4.26 million tons in the year
ended Sept. 30, a fourth straight record, according to the
London-based International Cocoa Organization, a group of producing
and consuming countries known as ICCO. While output rose 10 percent to
4.3 million tons, global inventories equaled 38.9 percent of demand, a
four-year low, ICCO data show.

Consumption is rising at a time when the Ebola virus has spread to
five of the seven counties in Guinea and Liberia that share borders
with Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer.

Nestle SA, which makes Kit Kat sold outside the U.S., said it is on
"high alert" because the company has operations in Africa including
Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria, Cameroon and Senegal. "Our cocoa
supply comes out of that region," Chief Executive Officer Paul Bulcke
said in an Oct. 16 conference call. Nestle is "caring for our people
and the people that are working with our people," he said.

On average, cocoa accounts for 14 percent to 15 percent of what it
costs to make chocolate, Euromonitor's Hosafci said.

Brazil's real fell to the lowest since December 2008 after polls
showed President Dilma Rousseff led candidate Aecio Neves three days
before the election runoff.

The real declined 0.5 percent to 2.50 per dollar at the close of trade
in Sao Paulo after earlier today falling 1.2 percent. The Ibovespa
tumbled 3.2 percent, leading losses among major stock benchmarks and
erasing this year's gain.

"Investors are more and more pricing in a victory for Rousseff," Andre
Perfeito, the chief economist at Gradual Investimentos in Sao Paulo,
said by telephone. "Many traders are still cautious, but these polls
show she is ahead, and people are considering that in trading the
currency."

The currency sank as an Ibope poll showed Rousseff would have 49
percent of voter backing and Neves 41 percent in this weekend's runoff
election while a Datafolha survey indicated that the president had 48
percent support and a lead of six percentage points. Both polls, which
previously showed the candidates statistically tied, have a margin of
error of plus or minus two percentage points. Neves told reporters he
can win despite what the opinion polls say.

Brazil Real 1 Year Chart INO 2.4985
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDBRL&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

Bovespa 1 Year Chart @YahooNews


File:Museu Oscar Niemeyer, interior 02.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Museu_Oscar_Niemeyer,_interior_02.jpg

Frontier Markets

The President's departure for medical treatment on the eve of the
country's 50th birthday seems to confirm the severity of his condition

Few believe that President Michael Sata would miss such a prestigious
event as tomorrow's 50th anniversary of Zambia's Independence. And yet
a State House statement said he had left the country on 20 October for
a 'medical check-up'. Having made no public appearances since he
returned from the United States in September, the fact he has gone
abroad at such short notice has been widely taken as a sign that his
condition is terminal. A political source in Lusaka said he had gone
to London. The Defence Minister and the governing Patriotic Front
Secretary General Edgar Lungu was left to run Zambia in his absence.

"Some say I want to be president. Why not? Am I not Zimbabwean, too?"
she said. "People who support Mujuru may do so, but Zimbabwe has one
leader who has one wife."

Zimbabwe's government needs to restore confidence in the country as
its economy will only grow by a meagre 3.2 percent next year, the
International Monetary Fund said Thursday.


"With regard to Zimbabwe, economic conditions remain difficult," IMF
director for Africa Antoinette Sayeh told a news conference.

Zimbabwe will thus lag the sub-Saharan Africa region, which is
forecast to expand by an average of five percent this year and 5.75
percent next year according to the IMF.

The Zimbabwe government had projected a 6.4 percent growth this year
but revised the figure downwards to 3.1 percent, citing depressed
mineral output.

Sayeh said she "highlighted four issues that are key to helping
fast-track the country's policy reform agenda" during her meetings
with Zimbabwean officials

These included "restoring confidence and stability in Zimbabwe's
financial sector ... and enhancing the business environment with a
view to attracting investments" as well as balancing spending in order
to begin addressing the country's debt challenge.

Zimbabwe's economy has been in a tailspin for more than a decade, only
able to manage slow growth at best that has done little reduce high
unemployment.

The country owes domestic and foreign creditors $9 billion, and a
controversial law limiting foreign ownership enacted by President
Robert Mugabe in 2007 has spooked international investors.

Botswana will on Friday hold what are expected to be its closest
elections since gaining independence from Britain 48 years ago as
President Ian Khama's ruling party faces growing dissent in a country
often heralded as a beacon of African democracy.

Khama's Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is expected to win a reduced
majority, extending the grip on power it has held since 1966. There
is, however, growing support for opposition parties who say change is
needed with economic growth slowing and unemployment stuck at around
20 percent.

Last week Botswana's sole power station broke down, forcing it to rely
on electricity from neighboring South Africa.

"If you want to move forward, vote for the BDP and if you want to move
backwards vote for the opposition parties," Khama told thousands of
supporters at an election rally last week.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.995% 2014 [4,138 points below a
record closing high of 52,242 reached July 29th]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

48,104.66 -98.25 -0.20%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.9664
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1486
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +29.7100% 2014 [has retreated 1,014 points since
September 30th]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,797.29 -14.59 -0.17%

THE road junction bears no sign that marks a border: no custom house
nor passport office. On one side is a burnt-out brick building and on
the other an unkempt meadow. Both are on Nigerian soil according to
official maps. Yet reality is different. Down what locals call the
cattle road lies another country. Between the cities of Gombe and
Maiduguri the tarmac is in the hands of Boko Haram.

In recent months the extreme Islamist group has taken over swathes of
north-east Nigeria. It controls at least two dozen towns in Borno
state and parts of the neighbouring states of Adamawa and Yobe. Gwoza,
a hill town of almost half a million people, is the capital of its
self-declared caliphate. Few outsiders dare to visit. A trader who
recently returned after making a delivery approved by the militants
described it as an abattoir after hours: "cold, calm and full of
blood".

On October 17th senior government officials claimed to have agreed a
ceasefire with the group, and to have extracted a promise that more
than 200 schoolgirls abducted earlier this year in the town of Chibok
would be released. But the girls have not been freed and attacks by
Boko Haram continue. In any case, the deal would have entailed a swap
of prisoners, including militant leaders, which might have stoked the
war all the more.

Boko Haram, which started out by assassinating provincial officials
from the backs of motorbikes, has become an able fighting force. It
conducts complex military manoeuvres reminiscent of those used by the
formidable Chadian army. One seasoned observer calls it "a fairly
effective commando force"

The Islamists have looted military garrisons across the region, and
now have tanks, armoured personnel carriers, anti-tank weapons and
artillery. Boko Haram claims to have downed a Nigerian fighter jet
(and has filmed the beheading of the pilot), so it may have
anti-aircraft guns, too. The archbishop of Maiduguri speaks of its
"inexhaustible boxes of ammunition".

Worryingly, the group's focus is now on holding territory in the
north-east. Along with new weapons and tactics, the group has acquired
new members. It may now field 5,000-10,000 fighters in total, perhaps
double its number two years ago.

Recent recruitment has often been by force, though not much coercion
is needed. "What else can the kids do with their lives?" asks a mother
in Gombe. Youngsters have few options. Boko Haram feeds, indoctrinates
and bloods them in raids. Many of its members fight bravely. "They
fail to fear death," says a policeman, Yusuf Abubakar. "They run into
open gunfire."

The group has long financed itself through plunder and kidnapping for
ransom. It now also collects taxes at road blocks. The trader who went
to Gwoza says he paid about $40 to pass through checkpoints. The group
produces slick propaganda videos showing attacks in which its fighters
overwhelm barracks and chase soldiers into the bush. The videos also
show supposed sharia justice in action: offenders are lashed, stoned
or have their hands cut off in front of sullen crowds.

Agriculture has collapsed in parts of the north-east. Fields are
barren. Markets are noticeably empty even in areas still under
government control. Public schools have been closed for half a year.
Many hospitals have run out of drugs.

That is one side of a strangely bifurcated country. A very different
Nigeria exists a day's drive away. While the north is imploding, the
south is booming. Lagos, the commercial capital on the coast, is a
magnet for investors lured by explosive growth in Africa's biggest
economy. The World Bank recently lauded Nigeria for making it easier
to set up firms. The commercial metabolism is phenomenal. Your
correspondent received a letter under the door of a well-kept hotel
room from the general manager offering the opportunity to buy shares
in the hotel's holding company.

Though oil is the country's main export earner, natural resources make
up only 14% of GDP. Factories are now running at about 53% of
capacity, up from 46% last year. McKinsey, a consultancy, suggests
that GDP could grow by more than 7% a year for the next 15 years,
making Nigeria one of the world's 20 biggest economies.

Much is due to government reforms. Investment in the electricity
sector is starting to turn on the lights. New regulations may
kick-start growth in mortgages for homeowners. Inflation has been
brought down from more than 13% in 2010 to 8.3%. The government has
helped launch a private-sector development bank and is setting up a
conditional cash-transfer system to boost the fight against poverty.

And yet, while much of the economy in the south-west is coming to
life, politics in the north-east is dying. Boko Haram has risen partly
because the state has been hollowed out. Nigerian institutions occupy
impressive buildings but the state fails to enforce rules and civil
servants and judges can be bought.

Thieves siphon off as much as a fifth of the country's oil output in
the Niger delta.

What started as a nibbling at the system has turned into all-out
gobbling. Earlier this year Lamido Sanusi, the
internationally-respected governor of the central bank, accused the
state oil company of failing to account for $20 billion in revenues.
He was fired for his pains.

One expert says the army "is close to being shattered". It has about
18,000 troops in the north-east, an area populated by 10m widely
dispersed people. About half the force, amounting to most of the
combat-capable troops in the 60,000-strong army, is squatting in
Maiduguri.

Nobody can predict when Nigeria might tip over into chaos. But that
day seems to be coming closer.

Conclusions

Political Tolerance Levels in Nigeria are evidently of a different
quantum to anywhere else in the World. Consider how an essentially
incapacitated and comatose President Yar'Adua was apparently in charge
of the country for a number of weeks from an ICU Unit. Nevertheless
the ''Bifurcation'' of which you speak is real and is something we
have seen here on the East Coast of Africa as well [Al-Shebab refers].
The Issue might well prove to be this, however. The National Security
Expenditure component of most African Countries and Nigeria is surely
an even bigger Outlier has been the least scrutinised aspect of
government spending. Sovereignty and National Security are catch-all
Phrases that has allowed hands to dive deep into the Till. The
accumulation of lack of any oversight and stashes of cash going
walkies means in my view, that Nigeria is like many other countries,
woefully behind the curve in matters of being equipped to take on the
Insurgency Tail Risk which keeps on biting harder.

taunt
verb (used with object)
1.
to reproach in a sarcastic, insulting, or jeering manner; mock.
2.
to provoke by taunts; twit.
noun
3.
an insulting gibe or sarcasm; scornful reproach or challenge.
4.
Obsolete . an object of insulting gibes or scornful reproaches.

What is clear is that the Boko Haram insurgency in the West and the
al-Shabaab [and its franchises] insurgency here in the East have both
intensified and ratcheted higher. Boko Haram militants in Nigeria have
killed more than 2,000 people so far this year in their campaign to
impose Islamic rule, according to Human Rights Watch.

The insurgency tail risk remains and how it plays out will have
important consequence for ourselves and the entire Africarising
narrative.

The Nigerian security services have sent 1 200 personnel to Russia
where they are receiving advanced counter-insurgency training from
Russian special forces and will return to form the nucleus of a
special counter-insurgency force which will be deployed to fight Boko
Haram militants.

According to Nigerian newspaper Vanguard, the first two batches of 400
security operatives - drawn from special units of the Nigerian Army,
the police and national intelligence services - are believed to have
left for Russian in early August.

The last group flew out of Nnamdi Azikiwe Airport on September 25
aboard a chartered flight to join their colleagues at an undisclosed
location in the Russian Federation after rigorous pre-training
military fitness tests conducted by Russian and Nigerian instructors.

Each batch received Russian-style specialised counter-insurgency
warfare training for four months and on return will form the core of a
new special forces brigade which is being created to take the lead in
the army's faltering offensive amid massive territorial gains in the
northern states of Borno and Adamawa by the Islamist Boko Haram group.

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.686% 2014 [has bounced 782 points since
reaching a 6 and 1/2 month Low October 17th]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

38,979.30 -14.86 -0.04%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +3.49% 2014 [-9.313%
since reaching a record 2,448 February 24th this year]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,220.45 -1.21 -0.05%

The cedi has fallen 35.32 percent this year, according to Thomson
Reuters data. It hit a low of 3.89 to the dollar on Aug 28 before
rebounding. It traded at 3.18-3.28 at 1200 GMT.
http://af.reuters.com/article/nigeriaNews/idAFL6N0SI4NF20141023?sp=true

Virilio claims that as the 'last post-industrial resource,
acceleration exceeds accumulation...the escape velocity [vitesse de
liberation] becomes the equivalent of profit.'

Virilio believes that ''Acceleration and Speed'' are the defining
characteristics of our new World. So my first point about the Ebola
Virus is that it is not about the absolute number of Ebola Cases, it
is about its ''escape Velocity'' Viruses exhibit non-linear and
exponential characteristics. WHO recently predicted that  the number
of Ebola cases in three West African nations may jump to between 5,000
and 10,000 a week by Dec. 1 as the deadly viral infection spreads. My
Point is that we have not entered the Parabolic Phase yet when the
escape velocity is at its fastest and therefore, the comparison with
Malaria and Influenza might make a nice Infographic but its an
irrelevant comparison.

Ebola sleuths scour DR Congo jungle for source of outbreak @AFP


IKANAMONGO (RD Congo) (AFP) - Medical sleuths are deep in the jungle
of the DR Congo trying to track down the origins of the latest Ebola
outbreak in the country.

It is a different strain than the one that has swept three west
African countries this year, killing nearly 4,900, and its toll of 49
so far is extremely modest in comparison.

Their all-terrain vehicles bounce along gutted roads in the northwest
of the vast country where the outbreak began in late July and has been
contained.

Pinning down its source, and learning more about how it acts and
develops, are keys to fighting the virus better.

The epidemic in the Lokolia region of Equateur province some 800
kilometres (500 miles) northeast of the capital Kinshasa is the
seventh in the country since the virus was first discovered in 1976.

The DR Congo outbreak was initially traced to a woman who died shortly
after preparing bush meat that that been hunted by her husband, a
pastor.

Today experts are almost certain that she was not the "index case".

"She was the first person to have tested positive for the disease in
the lab, but not the first person to die of it," Benoit Kebela, an
epidemiologist at the DR Congo health ministry, told AFP.

Kebela, who recently spent some time helping out in Guinea, is a
veteran of several Ebola epidemics in the DR Congo.

Around 15 kilometres (nine miles) southwest of Lokolia, three doctors
get out of the vehicle in Ikanamongo, a village of a few cinder-block
houses with roofs fashioned from tree branches.

A few dozen people rush to meet the team, but they keep their distance
to avoid any possible contamination.

The pastor, Doudou Bobua, said his late wife came into contact with
two other women, "one of whom died before her, showing Ebola symptoms,
and the other two days after."

Another Ikanamongo resident, Jean-Paul Iloko, said that "before the
epidemic hit the village, all the pigs died as well as some other
farmyard animals."

Other accounts gathered in the region confirm that a porcine fever
epidemic preceded the Ebola outbreak. "When (the pigs) were dying we
were eating them without knowing that we shouldn't," Iloko said.

Kebela said it was the third time, after 2007 and 2012, that
widespread pig deaths had preceded Ebola outbreaks in humans in the DR
Congo.

And it has been established that the pigs that died in 2012 carried
the Ebola virus, he said.

The Paris-based World Animal Health Organisation said its
veterinarians in Africa are closely monitoring livestock and pets but
that for now the role of the pig in the Ebola epidemic remains
uncertain.

There are suspicions, but no one has proved the transmission of pig to
human, Kebela said.

We have not received any data since late September around the Ebola
[different mutation] outbreak in DR Congo. A friend in the DRC informs
me Ebola deaths there are over 500.
https://rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2010-2.pdf

Another point to consider is the invisible case-load of Ebola cases
which are not being captured by the surveillance system. WHO
previously spoke of ''shadow-zones''. We have not received any data
since late September around the Ebola [different mutation] outbreak in
DR Congo. A friend in the DRC informs me Ebola deaths there are over
500.

International commitments to combat Ebola in West Africa are "grossly
inadequate" and tens of thousands could be dead in just one region of
Liberia by mid-December if aid is not hugely increased, disease
experts have said.

Official figures from the World Health Organisation (WHO) show that
there have been nearly 10,000 cases and 4,868 deaths from Ebola so
far, but difficulties in reporting mean that the figures considerably
underestimate the true scale of the crisis.

In the first study to apply mathematical models of disease spread to
the unprecedented outbreak, experts from Yale University and Liberia's
health ministry predicted that, in the worst-case scenario, there
could be 113,000 cases and 67,000 deaths in Liberia's Montserrado
County, which includes the capital Monrovia, by 15 December.

Estimating that each Ebola patient in the region is infecting on
average 2.5 people, they warn that the window of opportunity for
"timely control of the outbreak" has passed and the "risk for
catastrophic devastation both in West Africa and beyond might have
only just begun".

"We have seen growth rates sometimes much faster than an exponentially
growing 'doubling' model would predict, and sometimes much slower; no
one is certain why" he said.

Ebola test positive for New York doctor who treated patients in Africa
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/us-health-ebola-newyork-idUSKCN0IC2CU20141024

 An exterior view of Bellevue Hospital in New York City, October 23, 2014.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/us-health-ebola-newyork-idUSKCN0IC2CU20141024

Spencer was the fourth case to be diagnosed with Ebola in the United
States, and the first case in America's largest city, setting off
renewed fears about the spread of the virus, which has killed nearly
4,900 people, largely in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

Mali Becomes Sixth African Nation With Ebola as UN Sounds Alarm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-23/mali-becomes-sixth-african-country-to-report-ebola-case-1-.html

The government has identified family members of the 2-year-old girl
who was infected and has started monitoring them, President Ibrahim
Boubacar Keita's office said in a statement. The family traveled with
the girl from Kissidougou, Guinea, and was admitted to a hospital in
Kayes, Mali, on Oct. 23. The results confirmed she had Ebola
yesterday. Mali is Africa's third-largest gold producer.

"The Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene has taken all necessary
steps to prevent the spread of the virus," according to the statement.
The government "will reassure the public about the measures taken and
calls for calm and serenity."

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           12.70
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        27,919,189,069
EPS:             1.29
PE:                9.844

Full Year Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013
Full Year Revenue 17.423771b versus 16.451195b +5.911%
Full Year Interest Income 416.154m versus 676.109m -38.4486%
Full Year Other income 650.896m versus 594.888m
FY Total Revenue 18.490821b versus 17.722192b +4.337%
Full Year Expenses [11.812473b] versus [10.641359b] +11.005%
Full Year Finance Costs [2.587519b] versus [3.000802b] -13.772%
Full Year Profit before Tax 4.157948b versus 4.026924b +3.25%
Full Year Taxation [charge]/credit [1.331625b] versus 1.197780b -Big
Swing See Company commentary
Full Year Profit After Tax 2.826323b versus 5.224704b -45.90%
Full Year Earnings Per Share 1.29 versus 2.38 -45.79%
Final Dividend 40cents a share

Company Commentary

Generation capacity grew by 7.7% from 1,239MW in 2013 to 1,335MW in
2014 following the connection to the national grid of   70 MW, which
is part of the Olkaria 280MW geothermal project, and 25.6MW from
Wellhead Units.
However, profit after tax declined to Shs 2,827 million from Shs 5,225
million due to tax expense in the current year compared to tax credit
in the previous year. The tax credit last year arose from higher
capital allowances enjoyed at 150% for investments in power projects
outside major cities.
Final Dividend 40cents a share
The company is on course to delivering 844MW as part of the Government
goal to increase generation capacity by over 5000MW by 2016.
To Finance these projects, the Company will continue to explore
possible ways of raising funds through equity and debt capital
markets, development financial institutions (DFIs), public private
partnerships (PPP) and off-balance sheet initiatives.

Conclusions

This was signalled ahead of time, in fact.

Kenya Power surged 15% to close at 17.25 yesterday after releasing
FY Earnings see here
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzY%3D

BAT Kenya rallied 3% to close at a fresh record high share data here
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjk%3D

Local-currency Kenyan debt returned 8.6 percent this year, compared
with 6.4 percent average among 31 emerging markets tracked by
Bloomberg indexes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-23/kenya-seen-selling-more-infrastructure-bonds-as-demand-climbs.html

Yields on 12-year infrastructure bonds sold last year and due
September 2025 were unchanged at 10.99 percent by 12:29 a.m. in
Nairobi.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 89.147
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +17.687% 2014
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

160.82

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +6.76% 2014 [147 points below a more than 6
year High of 5,406.39 reached 22nd September 2014]
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,259.43

Safaricom fires 56 employees in graft related cases
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Safaricom-fires-56-employees-in-graft-related-cases/-/539550/2497370/-/14gnyxmz/-/index.html

"We do not give you the option to resign when we fire you and if there
is enough evidence we take you to court. We take ethics and corruption
very seriously," said Safaricom chief executive Bob Collymore at
Michael Joseph Centre in Nairobi on Thursday.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php