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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

In the programme astronauts Eugene Cernan and John Young can be heard
saying, "You hear that? That whistling sound?"

Another astronaut says "that sure is weird music".

Conclusions

The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy.” He checks in with his flight-dynamics and
conceptual-paradigm officers at Colorado Command (and we ask
ourselves—has there ever been a more distinctive exponent of dialogue
than Don DeLillo?):

“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”

“We copy. There’s a voice.”

“We have gross oscillation here.”

“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”

“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”

“Thank you, Colorado.”

“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”

“It was a voice,” I told them.

“We have just received an affirm on selective noise. . . . We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”

The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”: “Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programs of
forty, fifty, sixty years ago.”

"Temporal bandwidth," is the width of your present, your now. It is
the familiar "∆ t" considered as a dependent variable. The more you
dwell in the past and in the future, the thicker your bandwidth, the
more solid your persona. But the narrower your sense of Now, the more
tenuous you are.

Speaking before the meeting in Washington between Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Harris said
China was escalating the situation in the South China Sea with new
deployments. Asked about its aims, he said: "I believe China seeks
hegemony in East Asia."

Responding to another question, Harris said Chinese DF-21 and DF-26
anti-ship missiles could pose a threat to U.S. aircraft carriers, but
added the vessels were resilient and that the United States had "the
capability to do what has to be done if it comes to that."

He said militarization was not the responsibility of one party alone
and added in apparent reference to U.S. patrols: "We don’t hope to see
any more close-up military reconnaissance, or the dispatch of missile
destroyers or strategic bombers to the South China Sea."

Kerry said steps by China, Vietnam and others had created an "escalatory cycle."

Conclusions

China ratchets higher and is doing it in increments so as not to ''pop
it over the Radar''

Conclusions

Trump has the Big Mo'

The U.S. has incomparable resources, but it may never be as strong as
it is in cyberspace as it is today. Cyber power may be a particularly
ephemeral form of power. China is developing new competing
technologies. India, Europe, and other friends hold different visions
of how to manage the Internet and protect privacy. The gap between the
interests of American technology companies such as Google, Apple,
Facebook and Amazon and Washington is growing. The global, open
Internet, a wellspring of U.S. economic, political, and military
power, is fragmenting as Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and many others are
assert cyber sovereignty.

Some of this loss of power is unavoidable, the result of demographics
as the center of gravity for Internet users shifts rapidly from the
developed to the developing world. China now has close to 670 million
Internet users; India has more than 350 million and will pass 500
million in 2017. (In comparison, the U.S. currently has more than 300
million Internet users.) Some of the diminishment of power stems from
the logic of international politics, from competitors that seek to
balance U.S. power. And some of it is self-inflicted. The documents
revealed by the NSA contractor Edward Snowden suggest the U.S. pursued
massive amounts of data in service of defending itself from terrorist
attacks but at the expense of other diplomatic, economic and national
security interests.

Policymakers and politicians have been slow to understand the threat.
This myopia is partly the result of American Internet exceptionalism,
a sense that the U.S. has a unique, beneficent role in cyberspace.

Conclusions

The Global Internet brought diversity and diffusion of Opinion. This
undermined the Monolith.

Euro 1.1014
Dollar Index 97.50
Japan Yen 112.02
Swiss Franc 0.9935
Pound 1.3998
Aussie 0.7195
India Rupee 68.545
South Korea Won 1233.90
Brazil Real 3.9574
Egypt Pound 7.8314
South Africa Rand 15.225

Sterling’s 2.7 percent plunge in the first two days of this week was
the biggest since February 2009 in the teeth of the global financial
crisis.

Deutsche Bank is bearish on the pound and forecasts a drop to $1.28 by
year-end, Brehon said.

The pound fell 0.2 percent to $1.3994 as of 9:09 a.m. Tokyo time
Wednesday, after touching $1.3986, the lowest since March 2009. It was
at 78.78 pence per euro after sliding 1.7 percent over Monday and
Tuesday.

Gold 6 month INO 1227.65

West Texas Intermediate for April delivery slipped $1.52 to close at
$31.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the
biggest decline Feb. 9. The March contract rose $1.84 to expire at
$31.48 Monday, the highest for front-month prices since Feb. 4.

Futures extended losses after the settlement when the American
Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. crude supplies rose 7.1
million barrels last week. WTI traded at $31.24 at 4:38 p.m.

Brent for April settlement dropped $1.42, or 4.1 percent, to $33.27 a
barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European
benchmark crude closed at a $1.40 premium to WTI.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

He made the announcement following talks with UN chief Ban Ki-moon in
Burundi's capital, Bujumbura.

On Thursday, South Africa's President Jacob Zuma and four other
African leaders are due to visit Burundi, AFP news agency reports.

Mr Ban said Mr Nkurunziza's promise to release the prisoners was "an
encouraging step".

Mr Nkurunziza had also given him an assurance that he would hold
"inclusive dialogue" with the opposition, Mr Ban said.

(Kinshasa, February 23, 2016) – Democratic Republic of Congo
authorities have arbitrarily arrested eight youth activists, Human
Rights Watch said today. The youth activists and at least 30 political
opposition supporters were detained on or around February 16, 2016 in
connection with a national strike, or “ville morte” (dead city), to
protest delays in organizing presidential elections. Other activists
who supported the ville morte have received text message threats from
unknown phone numbers.

“Peaceful protest is not a crime, and the Congolese authorities should
immediately release all those wrongfully arrested or detained on
trumped up charges,” said Ida Sawyer, senior Africa researcher at
Human Rights Watch. “These latest arrests are part of a growing
crackdown on opponents of the government’s attempts to delay elections
and extend the president’s term in office.”

Last Thursday (18.02.2016), polling day in the Ugandan presidential
elections, WhatsApp, Twitter and Facebook simply stopped working for
many Ugandans. Most of them realized immediately that this was no
coincidence. The government was blocking access to social media and it
didn't even try to hide what it was doing.

As well as fostering interest in VPNs, the shutdown also had another,
perhaps more signficant, side-effect. "Ugandans, who formerly were
apathetic, are now active politically. They are letting their feelings
be known. They no longer have no opinion," said Kukunda.

This sort of emancipation is unlikely to find favor with the
government. Mathias Kamp said restrictions on democratic rights and
civil liberties in Uganda have been getting tighter for some time. But
the shutdown of social media was something new. The government has
little to fear from the traditional media, because they lack a
critical edge. "But the social media where everybody can post what
they like and which develop their own dynamism - they are a source of
great concern for the government." Kamp fears the government's
nervousness of social media could get worse.

Mathias Kamp said the shutdown of social media in Uganda and Chad
should not be viewed as isolated incidents. "Social media are a factor
for authoritarian governments and increasingly they keep them on their
radar," he said. It is possible that the Chadian government will
follow Museveni's example and shut down social media during the
elections in the country in April. Perhaps by then the Chadian
electorate, too, will be evading the closure of social media by
resorting to VPNs.

Conclusions

Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per
cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank,
and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their
muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very
connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a
‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a
demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium
between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

Feb 22 The growth in banks' assets in Democratic Republic of Congo
more than halved in 2015 to less than 10 percent, the president of the
country's banking association said on Monday, as falling commodity
prices rippled through the economy.

The figure represents a sharp setback for the banking sector whose
assets have increased more than 14-fold since 2002 due to high
economic growth and a 2011 decision by the government to pay public
servants through the banking system.

"In terms of the balance sheet, we have a progression of close to 10
percent," Michel Losembe, president of the banking association and
chief executive of Congo's third largest bank, BIAC, said in a
statement.

The sector registered 22 percent growth in 2014, he said.

Losembe said banks' growth should far outpace economic growth given
the low base from which the sector is expanding. Only about five
percent of Congolese have a bank account.

All eyes are on South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan when he
delivers his budget speech on Wednesday

Gross debt has almost doubled to close to 50 percent of gross domestic
product since Zuma took office seven years ago

Here again, the David Van Rooyen interlude at the Finance ministry was
a step too far. A 10 per cent fall in a currency in a single hour [the
rand flash crash] confirms the complete loss of any credibility that
President Zuma might have had. Barclays PLC is desperately seeking the
Africa exit button and the reasons are around SA volatility.

48,421.99 -690.81 -1.41%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.22 [Expectations high of
an imminent rate hike and that Gordhan will pull a rabbit out of the
hat]


The main house of parliament passed a bill that will enable the state
to pay for land at a value determined by a government adjudicator and
then expropriate it for the "public interest."


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -12.86% 2016


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -15.89% 2016


24,090.98 -332.39 -1.36%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -0.09% 2016

Ahmad Iman Ali, a Kenyan official in the Shabaab al-Mujahideen
Movement, delivered a lecture threatening attacks in Kenya, while
claiming to wear the clothing of a KDF soldier killed in the January
15, 2016, attack on an AMISOM base in Somalia's Gedo region.

140.38 +0.74 +0.53%

3,844.58 +30.52 +0.80%

The Shilling is locked at a 6 month High of 101.787 and its
performance an important Signal in the Noise.
The 10 Year Eurobond which was issued at a Yield of 6.875% and topped
9.00% during the Eurobond related Hullabaloo is back around the 8.4%
Level and this too is another Signal.
International Markets which had enjoyed some respite have come under
pressure again.
Crude Oil Prices had been rebounding but the Saudi Arabia Minister of
Oil Al-Naimi burned the Longs yesterday and I quote
 "we can coexist with oil to $20/barrel" and he  warned  Producers to
"Cut Costs Or Liquidate"
Gold [which is a Proxy for Geopolitical and Tail Risks] was last
trading at $1,233.00 an ounce.
The Japanese Yen [which behaves like Gold does] remains a Safe-Haven
notwithstanding Kuroda's negative rates.
There has been a good old-fashioned run on the Pound which traded
below 1.3900 to the Dollar for the first time since 2009 as Investors
bailed.
Europe's banks have lost about 30 percent of their value in the past year
Closer to home Pravin Gordhan will be delivering the SA Budget today
and needs to pull a rabbit out of the Hat.
The Equity Market here in Nairobi is outperforming its SSA Peers and I
believe will continue to win allocation versus SA, Nigeria and Egypt
through 2016

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and
firmed +0.313% to close at 16.00 and traded 9.875m shares worth
158.347m. Safaricom had 3 Buyers for every Seller at the Finish Line
and now targets its 2016 High of 16.70 reached on the 2nd of this
month.

The Full Year Earnings Season is now nearly upon us with Housing
Finance kicking off proceedings as early as tomorrow. The Banking
Sector has been under selling pressure but I am confident that the
Results will out-perform what is currently a very low expectations bar
and therefore see room for a 10% appreciation particularly in Tier 1
Banks who have also benefited from a Deposit flight to Quality which I
am sure has been helpful for NIMs [Net Interest Margins].

Kenya Commercial Bank eased back -0.63% to close at 39.50 and traded
1.180m shares. Kenya Commercial Bank's Fair Value Price is 45.00 and a
Push through 40.00 on a closing basis will signal a quick run-up to
45.00, in my opinion.
Standard Chartered PLC  reported on Tuesday an unexpectedly large loss
of $2.36 billion for 2015. The bank posted a pretax loss of $1.52
billion for 2015, compared with a pretax profit of $4.24 billion the
year before, and it confirmed that it would not pay a final dividend
for 2015. The Issues have been well flagged and speak to weakness in
emerging Markets, Commodity Markets and a big increase in bad loans.
Stanchart Kenya closed unchanged at 192.00 and was trading at 195.00
+1.56% at the Finish. I expect Standard Chartered to firm up from
here.
Standard Bank of South Africa said on Wednesday its full-year profit
would rise by up to 30 percent higher, boosted by lower losses from
discontinued operations outside Africa, sending its shares higher. CFC
StanBic Holdings firmed +0.66% to close at 75.50 and was trading at
76.50 +2.00% at the Finish Line.

Jubilee Insurance Co. was high ticked +6.24% to close at 460.00 on 300
shares worth of business.

Raw-sugar prices surged the most in at least 22 years after the
International Sugar Organization increased its forecast for a
production deficit in the current crop year amid rising concern about
the impact of the El Nino weather pattern on supplies. World
production in the 2015-16 period will trail consumption by 5.02
million metric tons, compared with a November estimate for a 3.5
million-ton shortfall, the International Sugar Organization in London
said Tuesday in an e-mailed report. Raw-sugar futures for May delivery
soared 8.9 percent to settle at 13.90 cents a pound by 1:04 p.m. on
ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the biggest one-day gain for the
most-active contract since at least March 1993. In London, white sugar
for May delivery jumped 6.1 percent to $395.90 a ton on ICE Futures
Europe. Mumias Sugar reported First Half Earnings where H1 Revenues
expanded +11.307% and the First Half Loss after Tax ran +9.04% higher
to 1.585b. The Cash and cash equivalents as at 27th Dec was
[2.054085b]. A sharply higher Raw Sugar Price will be helpful to
Mumias. Mumias closed unchanged at 1.55 having retreated -3.13%
yesterday in reaction to the Earnings Release.

KenGen rallied +2.96% to close at a 2016 High of 6.95 and traded
277,100 shares. KenGen has a sharp Buy/Sale Imbalance and was trading
at 7.05 +4.44% at the Finish. KenGen has a lot further to run.

EABL  shaved off -1.433% to close at 275.00 and traded 146,500 shares.
EABL had rallied sharply after the release of its better than expected
H1 Earnings and this is a Pause for Breath and i expect the Price
Rebound to target the 300.00 Level.