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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 16th of May 2016

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Saturday 28th May Mindspeak will be hosting the Central Bank Governor
Patrick Njoroge

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Tim Peake This is as far north as my lens will stretch- Greenland's southern coast

“It's just another word for the same thing. You want to believe in
some hidden purpose. You're trying to persuade yourself there's a
reason for what happens in the world. I don't care what you call
it--God or luck or harmony-- it all comes down to the same bullshit.
It's a way of avoiding the facts, of refusing to look at how things
really work.”
― Paul Auster, The Music of Chance

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Finally got my copy of Roberto Bolano's 2666

“People see what they want to see and what people want to see never
has anything to do with the truth.” ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

“Everything is a burned book, my dear maestro. Music, the tenth
dimension, the fourth dimension, cradles, the production of bullets
and rifles, Westerns: all burned books.” ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

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Venezuelan government seizes control of factories as country risks economic 'explosion' Independent
Law & Politics

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has threatened to seize factories
that have ceased production and arrest their owners after extending
emergency powers amid the country’s massive economic crisis.

Mr Maduro made his remarks Saturday, ordering “all actions to recover
the production apparatus, which is being paralysed by the
bourgeoisie.” He added that factory owners “sabotage the country” by
halting production at their plants.

The Associated Press reports that Empresas Polar, the country’s
largest food and drink distributor, closed its last beer plant,
claiming that the company lacked the capital to purchase the raw
materials necessary to continue production.

But Mr Madero sees the actions of Empresas Polar as a deliberate
attempt to destabilise the economy.

The left-wing president accused Washington of plotting a coup against
his administration - similar to the temporary ousting of then
President Hugo Chavez in 2002.

“You can hear the ice cracking. You know there’s a crisis coming. Our
pressure on this isn’t going to resolve this issue,” one official told

“This is really not the case that the US is rooting for any outcome
other than there not be an economic meltdown or social violence,”
another said. “There are reasons for concern that over the summer as
Venezuela gives importance to payments on debt over imports that these
events could spiral.”

Some activists, however, suggest that the US is fanning the flames
that could lead to a coup.

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Venezuela opposition slams 'desperate' Maduro state of emergency
Law & Politics

Maduro on Friday night declared a 60-day state of emergency due to
what he called plots from Venezuela and the United States to subvert
him. He did not provide specifics.

The measure shows Maduro is panicking as a push for a recall
referendum against him gains traction with tired, frustrated
Venezuelans, opposition leaders said during a protest in Caracas.

"We're talking about a desperate president who is putting himself on
the margin of legality and constitutionality," said Democratic Unity
coalition leader Jesus Torrealba, adding Maduro was losing support
within his own bloc.

"If this state of emergency is issued without consulting the National
Assembly, we would technically be talking about a self-coup," he told
hundreds of supporters who waved Venezuelan flags and chanted "he's
going to fall."

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AUG-2015 The end is nigh for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja
Law & Politics

Oil based economies are going to contract, currencies which have
already collapsed are going to be routed and Greek- style austerity
will be the order of the day. The melt-down is coming.

read more

12-JAN-2015 The oil warfare specialist, US President Barack Obama, has successfully wrestled crude price to below $50 a barrel
Law & Politics

The oil warfare specialist, US President Barack Obama, has
successfully wrestled crude price to below $50 a barrel, and with that
effected a choke-hold on Vladimir Putin's Russia, Venezuela and others
as far afield as Nigeria and Angola.

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South Africa Presidency Denies Reports of Gordhan Arrest, Ouster @business
Law & Politics

The office of South Africa President Jacob Zuma denied that the
finance minister would be arrested or replaced, refuting a Sunday
Times report that said a special police unit has sent to prosecutors
the docket of its probe into Pravin Gordhan.

The so-called Hawks police unit completed its investigation of Gordhan
and eight other former officials over their alleged involvement in a
special agency within the national revenue service, the Sunday Times
reported. A prosecution may prompt Zuma to replace Gordhan, who ran
the service until 2009, with Brian Molefe, chief executive officer of
the state-owned utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., the newspaper said,
citing unidentified officials in the ruling African National Congress


I have a high regard for Brian Molefe [whom I met in Tanzania at
January Makamba's Mindspeak] but ousting Gordhan, will be the straw
that broke the Rand's back

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23-NOV-2015 I cannot help feeling we are like frogs in boiling water.
Law & Politics

I cannot help feeling we are like frogs in boiling water. We have
created massive interference in the ‘’cosmic tuning’’ phenomenon.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1307
Dollar Index 94.58
Japan Yen 108.90
Swiss Franc 0.9764
Pound 1.4367
Aussie 0.7290
India Rupee 66.855
South Korea Won 1177.60
Brazil Real 3.5344
Egypt Pound 8.8792
South Africa Rand 15.3880

Dollar Index 6 Month Chart INO 94.623 [holding above 93.00 again
keeping the Bull Run intact]


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MSCI Emerging Market Index -Below 801 Anirudh Sethi
Emerging Markets

At the heart of political upheavals is usually an economy in
absolute disarray Brazil's worst recession in a century


Moody's downgrades Saudi Arabia's to A1 from Aa3 H/T Holger Zschaepitz


Frontier Markets

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L'irresistible ascension de Moise Katumbi Video


I am not convinced Kabila can keep a lid on the Street.

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16-MAY-2016 :: The Geopolitics of Pipelines in East Africa @TheStarKenya

Given that Uganda’s decision to export its crude oil to world markets
via the port of Tanga is now a ‘’done deal’’, it is worth analysing
what has happened and appreciating that this is the equivalent of a
blow to the solar plexus of our regional ambitions and that these
ambitions are gasping for breath. Recall that Ethiopia has already
dialled up the Djibouti route and that LAPPSET is in essence, a
Kenyan-South Sudan gig and that South Sudan is back at around zero and
is not in a position to finance its own recovery let alone a pipeline.
If the reknowned short-seller Mr. Chanos could short LAPPSET, I am
sure he would be limit short.

The widely read Africa Confidential said this: ‘’Uganda’s decision to
export oil through Tanzania undermines Kenya’s status as regional
‘’ The move alters the political balance of the whole region and has
left Kenya with some catching up to do.  The preferred route until the
second half of last year, Kenya now has a considerably less viable oil
field and a damaged reputation as the heartbeat of East African

Chatham House in an earlier report said: ‘’Uganda’s foreign affairs
minister also highlighted the issue of relative costs of the rival
routes.  Thee projected cost of the Tanzania route is approximately $4
billion, up to $1 billion less than going via Kenya. Kenya’s proposed
tariff was almost $17 per barrel, compared to Tanzania’s $12 per
barrel. Uganda’s energy minister has also reported that Tanzania has
waived land fees, transit charges and taxes associated with the

When you look at the numbers, our pipeline build was 25 per cent more
expensive and our price per barrel 29.411 per cent more costly, you
realise that we were never in the pipeline game.

Frame the question as a national interest, one for Uganda and its a
no-brainer.  then you have to ask, where was our intelligence? How
could we be so far away from the winning bid? When I worked in the
city and missed a big trade, I would always call back and ask how far
I had missed by. Differentials of 25 per cent and 29.411 per cent
would be terminal to the relationship.

Tanzania’s president John Magafuli has shifted the centre of gravity
for East African oil and gas, South, in one fell swoop.

In my humble opinion, Magafuli has moved with speed and precision and
pared price of brokerage charges. He’s winning. Its time for some
serious soul- searching folks.

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"If we find that there are conditionalities which we find acceptable, we will work with them," he told reporters Friday in Lusaka, the capital. "if not, we will throw them out."

Both the IMF and the government have said any aid program would only
be finalized after the polls. Zambia faces a “key challenge” funding
the growing budget deficit that Treasury Secretary Fredson Yamba
forecast will reach slightly less than 8.1 percent this year. Zambia’s
kwacha weakened 0.3 percent to 10.0012 per dollar at 4:31 p.m. in
Lusaka, the first time it dropped beyond 10 to the dollar in more than
a month.

“There is this superstitious belief that when you embrace the IMF
you’re bewitched and end up dying, the economy will die,” he said.
“No, it doesn’t work like that. A lot of other countries have gone to
the IMF -- we are members of the IMF and we should go there when we
have difficulties.”

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South Africa's Zuma says to return land to blacks as vote looms

South African President Jacob Zuma said on Friday his government would
push through a new law to compensate the black majority for stolen
land, stepping up populist rhetoric before August local polls where
his ruling ANC faces a tough challenge.

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Nigeria's central bank denies report of planned devaluation

The news website SaharaReporters.com, which focuses on Nigerian
politics, said President Muhammad Buhari had agreed to devalue the
naira in exchange for funds from the International Monetary Funds
(IMF) to help offset a slump in oil revenues.

The website is based in New York and founded by a Nigerian journalist.
It seeks to the hold the government to account by encouraging tip-offs
from sources and whistleblowers.

Quoting unnamed Buhari aides, it said the naira rate to the dollar
could fall to 290, compared with 198 currently.

"The rumour that the naira is going to be devalued is false," said
Isaac Okoroafor, a spokesman for the central bank.

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Africa Has More Large Businesses Than You Expect, McKinsey Says

McKinsey & Co. Inc. has identified 700 African companies with annual
sales of more than $500 million, many of which are growing and
reinvesting and are a reason for optimism about economic prospects on
the continent, the consultancy’s global managing director said.

“That’s a lot more than most people would think,” Dominic Barton said
Friday in an interview at the World Economic Forum on Africa in
Rwanda’s capital, Kigali. “Two-thirds of them are private, that’s
probably why we don’t know about them. And they’re growing.”

Of the companies identified with annual revenue larger than $500
million, 300 are in South Africa, 133 in North Africa, and 56 are in
Nigeria, Barton said, citing McKinsey research for a report to be
published in October.

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There was a look of satisfaction in President Uhuru Kenyatta's eyes as he sat down to talk to The Africa Report in Paris @theafricareport
Kenyan Economy

There was a look of satisfaction in President Uhuru Kenyatta's eyes as
he sat down to talk to The Africa Report in Paris that could be
attributed to more than three days of intense hospitality on a state
visit to the French capital. "We have been vindicated," was Kenyatta's
opening line.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 100.623
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.69% 2016


146.71 +0.27 +0.18%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.80% 2016


3,927.69 +4.27 +0.11%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share ticked -0.40 points lower to close at 146.31.
The Nairobi NSE20 fell 20.60 points to close at 3907.09.
Equity Turnover remained lackadaisical at 255.045m.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed +0.29% to close at a 4 week High of 17.35 and traded
3.338m shares. Safaricom is 0.5% below a 2016 Closing High and just
2.8% below an all time intra day high of 17.85. The FY Earnings
Release was muscular and i expect Safaricom which is +6.44% will post
a fresh record closing High, in due course.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank ticked -0.6% easier to close at 41.50 and traded
332,700 shares. KCB is set to conduct a Rights Issue and this will
cement their position at the Apex of the Tier 1 Bulge Bracket Banks.
The News out of Chase on Friday [signalling most banking services were
now being provided] also confirms KCB has moved the dial effectively
and with despatch.
Equity Bank eased back -0.6% to close at 40.00 and transacted 1.137m
shares. I thought the Q1 2016 Earnings were ''shapely'' and deserving
of a more positive price response.

CIC Insurance had a strong session rallying +4.807% to close at 5.45
and traded 96,700 shares. Todays Rally narrowed the Year to Date loss
to  -12.096%.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Carbacid rallied +1.01% to close at 15.00 and on heavy volume action
of 3.067m shares [1.203% of the shares] worth 46.12m. Carbacid
previously reported a 14% acceleration in H1 Turnover ''due to higher
demand in local and export markets''

EABL closed unchanged at 297.00 and traded 68,500 shares. EABL is
+8.79% in 2016 and I expect this out-performance to accelerate further
through 2016.

KenGen eased -1.04% to close at 7.05 which is a 10 week closing Low.
KenGen has retreated -11.875% since announcing a 2 for 1 share held
rights Issue. My Calculation is that everything is baked into the
price and the price correction has probably run its course.

Mumias Sugar firmed +1.6875% to close at 1.40. Raw Sugar Prices have
been on a roll of late.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2016

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