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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 19th of May 2016

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site


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29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises

Stanley Druckenmiller said this:

"As a macro investor, my job for 30 years was to anticipate changes in
the economic trends that were not expected by others - and therefore
not yet reflected in securities prices".

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Candy ‏@Canduh_ Today morning at Archer's Post

“I don’t have much time, I have to haul corpses. I don’t have much
time, I have to breath, eat, drink, sleep. I don’t have much time, I
have to keep the gears meshing. I don’t have much time, I’m busy
living. I don’t have much time, I’m busy dying.” ― Roberto Bolaño,

“You have to listen to women. You should never ignore a woman's
fears.” ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

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Sunset Mombasa

“The sky, at sunset, looked like a carnivorous flower.” - Roberto Bolaño, 2666

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Two Chinese jet fighters intercepted an American reconnaissance aircraft flying over the South China Sea @WSJ
Law & Politics

“We are reviewing a May 17 intercept of a U.S. maritime patrol
reconnaissance aircraft by two tactical aircraft from the People’s
Republic of China,” said Capt. Jeff Davis, a spokesman for the

“The incident occurred in international airspace during a routine U.S.
patrol in the South China Sea,” Capt. Davis said. “Initial reports
characterized the incident as unsafe.”

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25-AUG-2014 The signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of #MH370
Law & Politics

Picking up the signal through the noise of our world in 2014 is no
easy thing. In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic
world. When I plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up

‘’For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new
arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370. Since then
planes have been falling out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off took me back to Don Delillo

‘’”We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.’’

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1219
Dollar Index 95.24 The dollar rose to a seven-week high on Wednesday
after Federal Reserve meeting minutes boosted speculation that the
central bank will raise interest rates as soon as June.
Japan Yen 110.27
Swiss Franc 0.9875
Pound 1.4585
Aussie 0.7210
India Rupee 67.205
South Korea Won 1189.97
Brazil Real 3.5548
Egypt Pound 8.8796
South Africa Rand 15.855

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Minutes of the April 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released Wednesday in Washington used the word "june: six times in a policy context.
World Currencies

The U.S. economy barely grew in the first quarter, expanding at a 0.5
percent annual rate. Fed officials are cautious about the data, but
also appear to be betting that the consumer will make a comeback.
Retail sales in April rose by the most in a year, an early sign that
they could be right.

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DXY jumps on Apr FOMC minutes, whch Citi's Englander describes as clear message that June hike is "seriously live". H/T Holger Zschaepitz
World Currencies

The greenback has advanced for the past two weeks in its longest run
of gains since January as traders boosted expectations for the U.S.
central bank to raise borrowing costs. The currency has pared its 2016
loss to 3 percent amid comments from regional Fed presidents that at
least two rate increases this year may be warranted.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback versus 10
peers, was little changed as of 8:26 a.m. in Tokyo after climbing 0.8
percent on Wednesday and reaching the highest level on a closing basis
since March 28. The U.S. currency was at $1.1225 per euro from $1.1216
on Wednesday, when it added 0.9 percent. It fetched 110.10 yen from

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Saudi Arabia Considers Paying Contractors With IOUs @business

Saudi Arabia is considering using IOUs to pay outstanding bills with
contractors and conserve cash, according to people briefed on the

As payment from the state, contractors would receive bond-like
instruments which they could hold until maturity or sell on to banks,
the people said, asking not to be identified because the information
is private. Companies have received some payments in cash and the rest
could come in the "I-owe-you" notes, the people said, adding that no
decisions have been made on the measures.

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Saudi Funding Squeeze @business

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

From this in 2012

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Mozambique won't be able to honor a $178 million debt-interest repayment that's due next week for a previously undisclosed loan extended to a state-run company, Finance Minister Adriano Afonso Maleiane said.

The nation holds total public debt of $11.64 billion, of which $9.85
billion is owed to foreign investors, he told lawmakers Wednesday in
the capital, Maputo. Last month, the nation owned up to holding more
than $1.1 billion in hidden loans it failed to tell investors about as
it restructured another facility to a state-owned fishing company.

Mozambique Asset Management, whose payment is due on May 23, is
negotiating with lenders to restructure the $535 million loan,
Maleiane said while making the first official explanation about the
undisclosed debt. The company is one of two whose loans the government
kept hidden from creditors.

The second, Proindicus, made a $24 million payment on March 21 for its
$622 million facility. The next payment, amounting to $119 million, is
required on March 24, 2017, the minister said.

Since the discovery of undeclared loans by the International Monetary
Fund, European nations and multilateral lenders have withheld funding,
while rating companies have downgraded Mozambique’s credit. Its
currency has fallen 3 percent against the dollar this year, after
depreciating 32 percent in 2015. The inflation rate accelerated 17.3
percent last month, as a drop in commodity earnings and the metical’s
weakness pushed prices up.


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"We are approaching high noon at the O.K. Corral." Theo Venter, a political analyst at North- West University in Potchefsroom, near Johannesburg, said by phone on Wednesday.

“What worries me is that the Zuma side is willing to play Russian
roulette with the economy.”

“Some of Gordhan’s comments have been really hard-hitting and show
that he is tired of state institutions being used to pursue a
political agenda,” Van Staden said by phone. “The gloves are clearly
off now and it is semi-open warfare.”

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Nigeria's Currency Chaos Deepens as Bets on Devaluation Rise @business

Nigeria’s currency chaos is deepening.

As investors increasingly bet the bottom will drop out of the naira
and the vice president hints at a devaluation, the man who calls the
shots -- President Muhammadu Buhari, who has resisted letting the
currency weaken since coming to power a year ago, likening it to
“murder” -- has kept quiet.

Forward contracts suggest the currency will plunge 29 percent in three
months to 257 against the dollar, compared with 7.5 percent a week
ago. That follows a signal from regulators that some black-market
trading will be tolerated. Nigeria’s central bank has held the naira
at 197-199 per dollar since March 2015, deepening the worst crisis
this century in Africa’s biggest economy.

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Nigeria Oil Output @business

President Buhari


Reuters Africa ‏UPDATE: First missing #Chibok girl found in
Nigeria - parents' group


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.56% 2016


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -11.16% 2016 [37 month Lows]


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SABMiller Full-Year Profit Falls on Charges in African Units

Earnings were hurt by a $572 million charge as the brewer scaled back
operations in Angola and war-torn South Sudan, as well as $160 million
in costs associated with the AB InBev deal.

Ongoing turmoil in South Sudan and a lack of hard currency prompted
SABMiller to close its brewery there, and it will now operate as an
import business, the brewer said. Currency devaluations have also
weighed on the brewer in the country, as well as in Angola. The shares
were little changed in early London trading.

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Kenyan auditors to visit US for special Eurobond probe @bd_africa
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s top forensic auditors will visit London and New York mid next
month to collect data from international banks that handled the
controversial Sh250 billion Eurobond cash, Auditor-General Edward Ouko
told Parliament on Wednesday.

Mr Ouko said his office had secured appointments with top US and UK
financial institutions as part of an ongoing audit of the $2 billion
transaction at the centre of a bruising battle between the Kenyan
government and the opposition.

The auditors will visit JP Morgan, Federal Reserve Bank, City
Transaction Services New York, JP Securities, Barclays Bank, ICB
Standard Bank and Qatar National Bank to scrutinise the transactions
data, Mr Ouko said. “We are now in a position to say that we have been
given appointments to see JP Morgan and other banks that handled the
$2 billion Eurobond transactions,” he told the National Assembly’s
Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

The team will initially visit London and New York for a date with JP
Morgan, which was the receiving bank for the Eurobond proceeds, before
inspecting the transaction records at the Federal Reserve Bank where
the contested Sh100 billion was transferred to the Central Bank of
Kenya (CBK) account.

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.@NSEKenya Nairobi Securities Exchange issued a Notice where the following restrictions were introduced
Kenyan Economy

1. An Individual or Private Co. shall not hold more than 5% of the
equity share capital.
2. A Public Company shall not hold more than 10% of the equity share capital.
3. Trading Participants shall not cumulatively hold more than 40%.

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@NSEKenya share price data here +14.14% 2016
Kenyan Economy

Closing Price:           28.25
Total Shares Issued:          194625000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,498,156,250
EPS:             1.57
PE:                 17.994

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 100.788
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.03% 2016


145.74 +0.43 +0.30%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -4.02% 2016


3,878.42 +11.45 +0.30%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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Coffee price rises 5 per cent on high demand at global market
Kenyan Economy

On average a 50 kilogramme bag traded at Sh13,130 up from Sh12,243 in
previous trading at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE).

The price at the New York Exchange — which is the benchmark market —
went up from US 120 cents a pound last week to 134 cents, boosting the
local sales.

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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share firmed +0.59 points to close at 146.33.
The Nairobi NSE20 eked out a +2.39 point gain to close at 3880.81
The Market maintained yesterdays Uptick in Turnover to trade 670.562m.
International Markets were delivered a Knock-Out Blow yesterday late
evening when minutes of the Last FED Meet indicated that the FED was
seriously considering lifting US interest rates in June.
Risk Assets were a smash.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed +0.87% to close at 17.30 as Investors filter the
Signal [its unabashedly bullish] from the recent Noise. Safaricom is
+6.134% in 2016 and could float through 18.00 with little trouble as
there is first little Supply in fact after what were plain bulked up
Earnings. Mr Collymore has presided over a +800% Total Return for
investors during his tenure. You would be hard-pressed to come up with
another example of value creation at the Frontier.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank firmed +0.625% to close at 40.25 and was trading at
session highs of 41.00 +2.5% session highs at the closing Bell. Equity
traded 2.530m shares.
Standard Chartered rallied +2.5% to close at 205.00 and traded 47,100
shares. StanChart has upside scope.
KCB eased -0.61% to close at 41.00 and traded 1.758m shares.

National Bank
which of course has had its travails and let go of its
CEO a little while back rallied +9.23% to close at 10.05 which is a 4
week high. National Bank remains -36.19% Year To Date.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange and
eased -0.34% to close at 297.00 and traded 472,000 shares worth
140.234m. EABL is +8.79% in 2016 and I expect it to ratchet higher
from here. EABL reported an eye-popping +74.57% acceleration in H1 EPS
9.13 vs. 5.23 +74.570% and a +16.946% EPS acceleration in continuing
Operations. I think the market has yet to catch up with what is a
bullish story at EABL under Charles Ireland's stewardship.

EABL share price data here +8.79% 2016


Bamburi Cement traded another block of 500,000 shares worth 95m all at
190.00. Bamburi Cement is solid as you like at +8.571% in 2016.

Mumias Sugar firmed +3.571% to close at 1.45.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2016

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