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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 19th of May 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Saturday 28th May #Mindspeak will host the @cbkkenya Governor Patrick Njoroge @Njorogep
Africa


Aly-Khan Satchu ‏Erudite, literary, transparent & frank The Ahead of the Curve @CbkKenya Governor @njorogep "New Normal" #Mindspeak
Africa


A Video Teaser @Njorogep @cbkkenya Governor #Mindspeak
Africa


@CbkKenya #HappeningNow @njorogep interview with @alykhansatchu ...look forward to airing later today H/T Peter Kong'o
Africa


Dec-2015 Joshua Oigara tweeted this about Patrick Njoroge, the Central Bank governor:"@alykhansatchu @KCBGroup I salute the governor @njorogep he is no-longer "new". An exponential pragmatist and a masterstroke fellow."
Africa
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#Mindspeak Take-Aways @YouTube
Africa


#Mindspeak Panel Discussion @HabilOlaka CEO @KenyaBankers @JoshuaOigara CEO @KCBGroup @JohnGachora @nicbankkenya
Africa


Macro Thoughts



29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
Africa


Stanley Druckenmiller said this:

"As a macro investor, my job for 30 years was to anticipate changes in
the economic trends that were not expected by others - and therefore
not yet reflected in securities prices".

read more


Fed puts June rate increase on table provided economy says go. H/T Holger Zschaepitz
Africa


June Fed rate-hike odds jump to 33% after April minutes adopted a modestly hawkish tone. H/T Holger Zschaepitz
Africa


#Gold and #Silver get hammered H/T Holger Zschaepitz
Africa


Home Thoughts



Candy ‏@Canduh_ Today morning at Archer's Post
Africa


“I don’t have much time, I have to haul corpses. I don’t have much
time, I have to breath, eat, drink, sleep. I don’t have much time, I
have to keep the gears meshing. I don’t have much time, I’m busy
living. I don’t have much time, I’m busy dying.” ― Roberto Bolaño,
2666

“You have to listen to women. You should never ignore a woman's
fears.” ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666



The Setting Sun Lamu
Africa
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Sunset Mombasa
Africa


“The sky, at sunset, looked like a carnivorous flower.” - Roberto Bolaño, 2666

read more


Sunset Christmas Day Tsavo
Africa
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Two Chinese jet fighters intercepted an American reconnaissance aircraft flying over the South China Sea @WSJ
Law & Politics


“We are reviewing a May 17 intercept of a U.S. maritime patrol
reconnaissance aircraft by two tactical aircraft from the People’s
Republic of China,” said Capt. Jeff Davis, a spokesman for the
Pentagon.

“The incident occurred in international airspace during a routine U.S.
patrol in the South China Sea,” Capt. Davis said. “Initial reports
characterized the incident as unsafe.”

read more


Officials said the plane vanished immediately upon entering Egyptian airspace @EGYPTAIR #MS804
Law & Politics


25-AUG-2014 The signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of #MH370
Law & Politics


Picking up the signal through the noise of our world in 2014 is no
easy thing. In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic
world. When I plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up
this;

‘’For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new
arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370. Since then
planes have been falling out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off took me back to Don Delillo

‘’”We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.’’

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1219
Dollar Index 95.24 The dollar rose to a seven-week high on Wednesday
after Federal Reserve meeting minutes boosted speculation that the
central bank will raise interest rates as soon as June.
Japan Yen 110.27
Swiss Franc 0.9875
Pound 1.4585
Aussie 0.7210
India Rupee 67.205
South Korea Won 1189.97
Brazil Real 3.5548
Egypt Pound 8.8796
South Africa Rand 15.855

read more


Minutes of the April 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released Wednesday in Washington used the word "june: six times in a policy context.
World Currencies


The U.S. economy barely grew in the first quarter, expanding at a 0.5
percent annual rate. Fed officials are cautious about the data, but
also appear to be betting that the consumer will make a comeback.
Retail sales in April rose by the most in a year, an early sign that
they could be right.

read more


DXY jumps on Apr FOMC minutes, whch Citi's Englander describes as clear message that June hike is "seriously live". H/T Holger Zschaepitz
World Currencies


The greenback has advanced for the past two weeks in its longest run
of gains since January as traders boosted expectations for the U.S.
central bank to raise borrowing costs. The currency has pared its 2016
loss to 3 percent amid comments from regional Fed presidents that at
least two rate increases this year may be warranted.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback versus 10
peers, was little changed as of 8:26 a.m. in Tokyo after climbing 0.8
percent on Wednesday and reaching the highest level on a closing basis
since March 28. The U.S. currency was at $1.1225 per euro from $1.1216
on Wednesday, when it added 0.9 percent. It fetched 110.10 yen from
110.19.



US 2y yields jump to highest since March as FOMC Minutes point to a Fed that wants to pull the trigger in June. H/T Holger Zschaepitz
World Currencies


Dollar Canada 1 Year Chart INO 1.3052 [BUY THE DOLLAR]
World Currencies
read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
read more


Brent nears $50/bbl, but it might take some time to break above - it took 3 months to break convincingly below $50 H/T
Commodities


look at how it reversed after crossing $50.00 yesterday



Saudi Arabia Considers Paying Contractors With IOUs @business
Commodities


Saudi Arabia is considering using IOUs to pay outstanding bills with
contractors and conserve cash, according to people briefed on the
discussions.

As payment from the state, contractors would receive bond-like
instruments which they could hold until maturity or sell on to banks,
the people said, asking not to be identified because the information
is private. Companies have received some payments in cash and the rest
could come in the "I-owe-you" notes, the people said, adding that no
decisions have been made on the measures.

read more


The King Abdullah financial district sits on the horizon seen from a skyscraper under construction in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday, Jan. 10, 2016. Photographer: Waseem Obaidi/Bloomberg
Commodities
read more


Saudi Funding Squeeze @business
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets


From this in 2012

read more


4 JUN 12 'Maputo, Boom Town' [That was then]
Africa


This is Now

read more


Mozambique won't be able to honor a $178 million debt-interest repayment that's due next week for a previously undisclosed loan extended to a state-run company, Finance Minister Adriano Afonso Maleiane said.
Africa


The nation holds total public debt of $11.64 billion, of which $9.85
billion is owed to foreign investors, he told lawmakers Wednesday in
the capital, Maputo. Last month, the nation owned up to holding more
than $1.1 billion in hidden loans it failed to tell investors about as
it restructured another facility to a state-owned fishing company.

Mozambique Asset Management, whose payment is due on May 23, is
negotiating with lenders to restructure the $535 million loan,
Maleiane said while making the first official explanation about the
undisclosed debt. The company is one of two whose loans the government
kept hidden from creditors.

The second, Proindicus, made a $24 million payment on March 21 for its
$622 million facility. The next payment, amounting to $119 million, is
required on March 24, 2017, the minister said.

Since the discovery of undeclared loans by the International Monetary
Fund, European nations and multilateral lenders have withheld funding,
while rating companies have downgraded Mozambique’s credit. Its
currency has fallen 3 percent against the dollar this year, after
depreciating 32 percent in 2015. The inflation rate accelerated 17.3
percent last month, as a drop in commodity earnings and the metical’s
weakness pushed prices up.

Conclusions

read more


#Africarising Maputo Mozambique
Africa
read more


Maputo from the Sea
Africa
read more


"We are approaching high noon at the O.K. Corral." Theo Venter, a political analyst at North- West University in Potchefsroom, near Johannesburg, said by phone on Wednesday.
Africa


“What worries me is that the Zuma side is willing to play Russian
roulette with the economy.”

“Some of Gordhan’s comments have been really hard-hitting and show
that he is tired of state institutions being used to pursue a
political agenda,” Van Staden said by phone. “The gloves are clearly
off now and it is semi-open warfare.”

read more


I never lied #Zuma says to MPs via Mail and Guardian
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.15% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.8187

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +9.01% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND



Nigeria's Currency Chaos Deepens as Bets on Devaluation Rise @business
Africa


Nigeria’s currency chaos is deepening.

As investors increasingly bet the bottom will drop out of the naira
and the vice president hints at a devaluation, the man who calls the
shots -- President Muhammadu Buhari, who has resisted letting the
currency weaken since coming to power a year ago, likening it to
“murder” -- has kept quiet.

Forward contracts suggest the currency will plunge 29 percent in three
months to 257 against the dollar, compared with 7.5 percent a week
ago. That follows a signal from regulators that some black-market
trading will be tolerated. Nigeria’s central bank has held the naira
at 197-199 per dollar since March 2015, deepening the worst crisis
this century in Africa’s biggest economy.

read more


Nigeria Oil Output @business
Africa


President Buhari



Reuters Africa ‏UPDATE: First missing #Chibok girl found in
Nigeria - parents' group



Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.56% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -11.16% 2016 [37 month Lows]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


SABMiller Full-Year Profit Falls on Charges in African Units
Africa


Earnings were hurt by a $572 million charge as the brewer scaled back
operations in Angola and war-torn South Sudan, as well as $160 million
in costs associated with the AB InBev deal.

Ongoing turmoil in South Sudan and a lack of hard currency prompted
SABMiller to close its brewery there, and it will now operate as an
import business, the brewer said. Currency devaluations have also
weighed on the brewer in the country, as well as in Angola. The shares
were little changed in early London trading.

read more


Africa is forecast to be the fastest-growing alcohol market in the world over the next five to 10 years. John O'Keefee Diageo Africa President
Africa
read more


Kenyan auditors to visit US for special Eurobond probe @bd_africa
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s top forensic auditors will visit London and New York mid next
month to collect data from international banks that handled the
controversial Sh250 billion Eurobond cash, Auditor-General Edward Ouko
told Parliament on Wednesday.

Mr Ouko said his office had secured appointments with top US and UK
financial institutions as part of an ongoing audit of the $2 billion
transaction at the centre of a bruising battle between the Kenyan
government and the opposition.

The auditors will visit JP Morgan, Federal Reserve Bank, City
Transaction Services New York, JP Securities, Barclays Bank, ICB
Standard Bank and Qatar National Bank to scrutinise the transactions
data, Mr Ouko said. “We are now in a position to say that we have been
given appointments to see JP Morgan and other banks that handled the
$2 billion Eurobond transactions,” he told the National Assembly’s
Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

The team will initially visit London and New York for a date with JP
Morgan, which was the receiving bank for the Eurobond proceeds, before
inspecting the transaction records at the Federal Reserve Bank where
the contested Sh100 billion was transferred to the Central Bank of
Kenya (CBK) account.

read more


@IMFNews Presser Nairobi @serenahotels David Lipton comments re Eurobond
Kenyan Economy
read more


"I have to say the accounting that has been presented to @Imfnews is proper" David Lipton re #Eurobond
Kenyan Economy


"Kenya Debt in a safe~zone" says @IMFNews David Lipton at Presser with @KenyaTreasury
Kenyan Economy


.@NSEKenya Nairobi Securities Exchange issued a Notice where the following restrictions were introduced
Kenyan Economy


1. An Individual or Private Co. shall not hold more than 5% of the
equity share capital.
2. A Public Company shall not hold more than 10% of the equity share capital.
3. Trading Participants shall not cumulatively hold more than 40%.

read more


@NSEKenya share price data here +14.14% 2016
Kenyan Economy


Closing Price:           28.25
Total Shares Issued:          194625000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,498,156,250
EPS:             1.57
PE:                 17.994

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 100.788
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.03% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

145.74 +0.43 +0.30%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -4.02% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,878.42 +11.45 +0.30%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


Coffee price rises 5 per cent on high demand at global market
Kenyan Economy


On average a 50 kilogramme bag traded at Sh13,130 up from Sh12,243 in
previous trading at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE).

The price at the New York Exchange — which is the benchmark market —
went up from US 120 cents a pound last week to 134 cents, boosting the
local sales.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share firmed +0.59 points to close at 146.33.
The Nairobi NSE20 eked out a +2.39 point gain to close at 3880.81
The Market maintained yesterdays Uptick in Turnover to trade 670.562m.
International Markets were delivered a Knock-Out Blow yesterday late
evening when minutes of the Last FED Meet indicated that the FED was
seriously considering lifting US interest rates in June.
Risk Assets were a smash.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed +0.87% to close at 17.30 as Investors filter the
Signal [its unabashedly bullish] from the recent Noise. Safaricom is
+6.134% in 2016 and could float through 18.00 with little trouble as
there is first little Supply in fact after what were plain bulked up
Earnings. Mr Collymore has presided over a +800% Total Return for
investors during his tenure. You would be hard-pressed to come up with
another example of value creation at the Frontier.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank firmed +0.625% to close at 40.25 and was trading at
session highs of 41.00 +2.5% session highs at the closing Bell. Equity
traded 2.530m shares.
Standard Chartered rallied +2.5% to close at 205.00 and traded 47,100
shares. StanChart has upside scope.
KCB eased -0.61% to close at 41.00 and traded 1.758m shares.

National Bank
which of course has had its travails and let go of its
CEO a little while back rallied +9.23% to close at 10.05 which is a 4
week high. National Bank remains -36.19% Year To Date.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange and
eased -0.34% to close at 297.00 and traded 472,000 shares worth
140.234m. EABL is +8.79% in 2016 and I expect it to ratchet higher
from here. EABL reported an eye-popping +74.57% acceleration in H1 EPS
9.13 vs. 5.23 +74.570% and a +16.946% EPS acceleration in continuing
Operations. I think the market has yet to catch up with what is a
bullish story at EABL under Charles Ireland's stewardship.

EABL share price data here +8.79% 2016



Bamburi Cement traded another block of 500,000 shares worth 95m all at
190.00. Bamburi Cement is solid as you like at +8.571% in 2016.

Mumias Sugar firmed +3.571% to close at 1.45.



by Aly Khan Satchu (rich.co.ke)
 
 
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