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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

“Each generation must discover its mission, fulfill it or betray it,
in relative opacity.” ― Frantz Fanon

“When we revolt it’s not for a particular culture. We revolt simply
because, for many reasons, we can no longer breathe” ― Frantz Fanon

He was sentenced by the Special African Chamber, created in 2013 by
Senegal and the African Union, to life in prison.

Hatred there may be against Isis in Mosul but there is not much people
can do about it as they are unarmed and Isis responds ferociously to
any sign of dissent. Last August it posted on the wall of the main
morgue a list of 2070 people whom it had executed since June 2014 when
it captured the city.

The feelings of people in Mosul is important because it is almost
exactly two years ago since Isis captured the city and declared its
“Caliphate”. Only a few months earlier President Obama had compared
the movement to a minor league baseball team that was never going to
get anywhere. By seizing Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, Isis
proved him wrong and began a campaign in which it overran western Iraq
and eastern Syria, showing the world that there was a new and
terrifying player in the Middle East.

Mosul is the last big city held by Isis in the civil war being waged
across Iraq and Syria. Isis’s Syrian capital Raqqa is small by
comparison. Mosul has kept most of its population and is largely
undamaged, while Ramadi, which once had a population of 400,000, is 70
per cent destroyed, Fallujah may soon go the same way and in Aleppo
the rebel-held half of the city may now have only a population of
200,000 because of indiscriminate barrel bombing and artillery fire by
government forces.

“Around him we all felt like we were strong men, confident. He used to
tell us how we would fight for the Islamic State’s [Isis] victory and
how we would go to heaven where we would find delicious food,
beautiful women and wine and ‘everything you crave’.”

The recruits received rigorous military training supervised by Ali
Abdullah, going to woodland around Mosul be taught how to use weapon,
explosive belts and bombs as well as how to drive cars and motorbikes.
Back in the cellar of the house, which had once belonged to a
Christian family, they were permanently hungry living on a handful of
dates, bread and water in what was evidently a toughening up process.
“During the three months we were there, we only washed properly three
times. We all smelt like rats,” the 15-year-old says.

Because of the insanitary conditions in the cellar, the young man got
a serious kidney and stomach infection and ended up in Mosul hospital
where he was interviewed. He is still intending to become a suicide
bomber when he gets well and will follow his friends to paradise.

Though vastly outgunned, Isis can go on killing people for a long time
if it continues to recruit and train such fanatics.

Berlin 1945


11. April 2011 – Souza captures Obama at the heart of events, perhaps
feeling the burden of his job© Pete Souza/The White House
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2016/may/29/pete-souza-photographing-the-real-barack-obama

12. May 2016 – The president waits pensively before a public speech. ©
Pete Souza/The White House
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2016/may/29/pete-souza-photographing-the-real-barack-obama

Margaret Thatcher was 'completely and utterly right' to stay out of
Europe, says former Greek finance minister
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/05/30/margaret-thatcher-was-completely-and-utterly-right-to-stay-out-o/

Conclusions

and more importantly Mrs. Thatcher would never have taken the matter to a Vote.


Margaret Thatcher warned that a central currency would always
become political
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/05/30/margaret-thatcher-was-completely-and-utterly-right-to-stay-out-o/

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to put off a planned sales
tax increase for 2 1/2 years, senior officials from his ruling party
and its coalition partner said Monday, as Abe prepares to end the
speculation that has swirled for months.

“He told me he wants to delay the sales tax increase by two-and-a-half
years,” Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of the junior coalition Komeito Party,
told reporters after a meeting with Abe. “I felt he was very
determined.” Yamaguchi said he would discuss the matter with his
party.

Money managers struggling to develop a clear market view beyond June
say they’re turning to gold and the Japanese yen, which tend to
benefit when investors become more conservative. Sovereign bonds from
major economies are being used as a hedge even though yields are close
to historic lows. They’ve slipped to below zero on $8.3 trillion of
debt, or about one-third of the total, based on the Bloomberg Global
Developed Sovereign Bond Index.

Risk events for investors start as soon as this week, with OPEC’s
ministers gathering in Vienna to discuss oil output levels and prices,
a European Central Bank meeting and the U.S. payrolls report for May.

“There is universal agreement if we see a Brexit you will initially
see a very sharp fall in the pound,” Dowding said, referring to
Britain potentially voting to exit the EU. “In as much we are trying
to hedge and protect the portfolios we are taking short sterling
positions with the view to reflecting that thinking.”

Concern that the outlook may weaken for the U.S., Europe and China, as
well as mixed policy signals from central bankers around the world,
have contributed to what UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio
Ermotti called a “paralyzing volatility” that’s scared away clients
and caused industry-wide trading revenue to tumble to the lowest since
2009.

Across the Atlantic, much-awaited Fed meetings before and after the
British referendum have kept investors and traders guessing. The odds
of a rate increase in June implied by federal funds futures almost
tripled this month to 34 percent, as markets digested recent hawkish
remarks from U.S. policy makers. They rise to 80 percent by year-end.

While stocks have recovered their losses this year, with the broad
MSCI ACWI index up 0.9 percent in the period, gains in haven assets
signal investors remain relatively cautious. Gold futures have climbed
14 percent, while the yen appreciated 8 percent versus the dollar and
developed-market sovereign bonds returned 7.7 percent.

Euro 1.1129
Dollar Index 95.70
Japan Yen 111.22
Swiss Franc 0.9928
Pound 1.4672
Aussie 0.7248
India Rupee 67.215
South Korea Won 1191.57
Brazil Real 3.5679
Egypt Pound 8.8810
South Africa Rand 15.7866

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 95.70 [Headed higher]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1129 [Germany snapped out
of deflation]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Gold 6 month INO 1212.42 [Venezuela selling?]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 49.63 [at an Inflexion Point?]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.N16.E

Frontier Markets

"But we don't think it is going to put us back into the pre-HIPC type of era."

With political tensions soaring over expectations that Kabila wants to
extend his rule despite being barred from a third term, Katumbi has
been all but forced into exile as he faces charges of undermining
state security.

The 51-year-old owner of the Tout-Puissant Mazembe football club had
this month announced plans to stand in the election due later this
year, but was swiftly hit with an investigation into claims he hired
foreign mercenaries.

Katumbi flew to South Africa on May 20 and was admitted to hospital in
Johannesburg, with followers saying he was injured during clashes
between police and his supporters a week earlier.

"Moise Katumbi left Johannesburg on Friday and landed in London on
Saturday," said lawyer Kapiamba.

Another member of Katumbi's team, speaking from Johannesburg, added:
"He is out of hospital. He is well, but because of the disorder in
Congo, he prefers to rest for the moment.

"He will go back to Congo but we still don't know when," the source
said, insisting: "He is a candidate for the presidency."

54,474.09 +368.72 +0.68%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.7866
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt court sentences Brotherhood leader to life FRANCE 24 ‏@FRANCE24


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.38% 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

“The president is opposed to devaluing the naira, he has said so
repeatedly,” Buhari’s spokesman, Garba Shehu, said in an interview on
state-controlled NTA Television. “He has given them leeway to
introduce what he has called ‘flexibility in managing’” the currency’s
value, Shehu said, referring to the central bank.

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.91% 2016 [7 month Highs]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -11.20% 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Dutch CG Cape Town ‏@HorbachBonnie Successful #urbanisation takes
time, but rapid growth of African cities demand answers now

Kenyan banks are competing against lenders from Gulf nations seeking
licenses to operate in Somalia as the strife-torn country opens up the
industry to international companies for the first time in almost half
a century.

Somalia’s central bank has held talks with KCB Group Ltd., the owner
of Kenya’s largest bank, and Nairobi-based Commercial Bank of Africa
Ltd., Governor Bashir Issa Ali said, without identifying any banks
from the Gulf.

“They are expressing an interest to gain a foothold in Somalia,” he
said in an interview in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi last week.
“Banking is one of the most profitable sectors in the country."

Nairobi, Kenya (CNN)On January 15, a massive blast shattered the dawn
calm at El Adde military base. A suicide bomber had detonated a truck
loaded with explosives, the cue for hundreds of fighters clad in
camouflage gear to attack.

The raid lasted the entire day; thousands upon thousands of bullets
fired by some 300 Al-Shabaab militants in a brutal assault on Kenyan
soldiers stationed in Somalia to fight the terrorist group.

By the time the sun set, as many as 141 Kenyan soldiers were dead --
some shot at point-blank range. That figure would make what happened
at El Adde Kenya's largest military defeat since its independence in
1963.

But in the months since, there has been no national day of mourning,
no roll call of honor, and no explanation.

The only clues to what happened are contained in a propaganda video
made by Al-Shabaab itself.

One Western diplomat based in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, told CNN
this was clearly a "tactical disaster" for the Kenyans.

"How can two hundred Al-Shabaab walk across a field in broad daylight
without the Kenyans noticing? Where were the KDF's machine guns?" he
asked. "This is contrary to everything they have been taught, and
should be doing in a hostile environment."

"The truth about El Adde is being hidden from Kenyans, not from Al-Shabaab."

Lewa Wildlife Conservancy shows how conservation and community are
bucking the poaching trend that kills thousands.

Lewa Downs, Kenya - Few thought it would work. Even the experts said
no chance. But 24 hours after the road underpass opened, the bull
elephant slowly stepped through and re-established safe passage on an
ancient trail.

Reaching high into the clouds, Mount Kenya is a waypoint on the
elephant's inbuilt GPS. For centuries herds in this part of Africa
have trodden the route back and forth across the equator to Mount
Marsabit in the north.

Then came agricultural fields. And a road network. The old elephant
paths were blocked by either cash crops of flowers and tomatoes, or by
lorries thundering on tarmac through the foothills.

The elephants took the easy route and fed themselves along the way.
Entire crops were destroyed overnight and livelihoods ruined.
Elephants were sometimes killed in retaliation.

"The situation was bad," said Mike Watson of the Lewa Wildlife
Conservancy. "So we negotiated an elephant corridor, a fenced route,
which passes through the agricultural lands. We built the underpass
under a busy freeway and now hundreds of elephants travel up and down
every year."

Cottar’s Camp looks down across the valley toward grasslands that
stretch into Tanzania’s Serengeti plains, just a few miles away.
Nearby, baboons and monkeys mix with antelopes and zebras—as well as a
tiny, orphaned Thomson’s gazelle (christened Bambi) being raised by a
Maasai named Charles.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.87% 2016 [8 week closing low]
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

144.43 -1.11 -0.76%

@Barclays_Kenya  has been caught in the crosshairs of the @Barclays
PLC divestment -25.73% in 2016.
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTQ%3D

@National_Bank remains -28.25% Year to date but has rebounded
+21.5%  this month. share data here
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjI%3D

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -4.45% 2016 [13 week closing low]
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,860.94 -6.56 -0.17%

The Closing Prices have not been received as I file this.
Equity Turnover picked up speed to clock 503.049m.
The Nairobi All Share is at an 8 week Low.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index is at a 13 week Low.

Safaricom eased -0.29% to close at 17.00 and traded 5.747m shares
worth 97.972m. Safaricom is +4.29% in 2016 . Safaricom is -2.57% below
its 2016 High and will launch itself beyond 17.45 after this period of
light Profit-taking.

The Standard Newspaper provided some granularity to the Deloitte Kenya
Airways Audit Report. Kenya Airways eased -1.3% to close at 3.80.

KCB Group eased -1.273% to close at 38.75 and traded 1.261m shares.
Bloomberg carried an Interview the Governor of the Central Bank of
Somalia who spoke to KCB [and Gulf Banks] and i quote

“They are expressing an interest to gain a foothold in Somalia.”

“Banking is one of the most profitable sectors in the country." he said.

Standard Chartered firmed +0.95% to close at 209.00 and was trading at
211.00 at the Final Bell. Standard Chartered traded 72,300 shares and
is +7.179% through 2016.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 39.50 and traded 1.397m shares.
Diamond Trust Bank followed on yesterdays 4.95% low volume down move
with another 2.08% retreat to close at 188.00 a 4 1/2 month Low.

Centum closed unchanged at 41.25 and saw an uptick in volumes with
1.215m shares changing hands. Centum is -11.29% Year To Date.

Jubilee Insurance was well traded and firmed +0.42% to close at 473.00
with 72,400 shares worth 34.225m changing hands. Jubilee reported a
-2.288% FY EPS decline and trades on a PE Ratio of 11.00.

EABL ticked -0.34% lower to close at 291.00 and making that a -3.64% 2
session correction off a 2016 closing High. EABL traded 287,300
shares. The Trigger for the Profit taking was the Business Daily
Report around distributors demanding a bigger slice but has now surely
run its course.

BAT firmed +1.82% to close at 835.00 and closed out the session
trading at 850.00 +4.29% at the closing Bell. In a declining interest
rate environment, BAT finds favour because its Dividend and Dividend
Pay Out Ratio is high and handsome.

KenGen firmed +0.74% to close at 6.70 and above the Rights issue Price of 6.55.