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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 07th of April 2017
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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The one and only @albertolabella
Africa


and with a freshly minted Mrs. Labella

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Like other species, we are the products of millions of years of adaptation. Now we're taking matters into our own hands.
Africa


“We will transcend all of the limitations of our biology,” Kurzweil
promised. “That is what it means to be human—to extend who we are.”

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The future belongs to robots that can surf
Africa

 



#Syria:
- 59 U.S. missiles fired
- Response to gas attack
- Trump: Syria ignored warnings

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

Conclusions

It was actually a predictable response by Donald Trump given the
circumstances he finds himself in. However, I do not think its an
''open and shut'' case on the evidence.

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Donald Trump spun 180 degrees from 'America First' to strike Assad Independent
Law & Politics


This what you get with a reflexive president. In a neck-snapping 48
hours, he has gone from ‘America First’ to plunging headlong into
punching militarily into the heart of a conflict thousands of miles
from the homeland. He has gone from incoherency to coherency. Or has
he?

The coherent part is compelling: his predecessor made a sap of himself
- and of the nation - by saying that the use of chemical weapons would
be the red line that would trigger American action and then backed
away when it was duly crossed (in part because of queasiness in
London, if you recall.) This is the ‘America Strong’ president
thinking.

That something was coming - in the end, a fairly nominal barrage of
unmanned cruise missiles against a single target, a regime airfield
close to Homs in western Syria - was clear when President Donald Trump
raged against the use precisely of nerve gas against civilians,
including “beautiful little babies”, by the forces of President Bashar
al-Assad at a news conference alongside the visiting King Abdullah of
Jordan in the Rose Garden on Wednesday.

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Aung San Suu Kyi denies Rohingya are being ethnically cleansed @KenRoth
Law & Politics


I suppose Bangladesh excursions are just a la mode.

Conclusions

No Nelson Mandela I am afraid.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0650
Dollar Index 100.65
Japan Yen 110.62
Swiss Franc 1.0045
Pound 1.2468
Aussie 0.7522
India Rupee 64.385
South Korea Won 1134.15
Brazil Real 3.1430
Egypt Pound 18.0475
South Africa Rand 13.7828

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Venezuela's PDVSA Says It Will Make April 12 Bond Payment
Emerging Markets


Venezuela’s state oil producer PDVSA said it will pay $2.1 billion in
bonds after a plunge in crude production and dwindling cash flow
spurred bets on a default.

Caracas-based Petroleos de Venezuela SA told investors that principal
and interest payments related to its bond that matures this month will
be available in investor accounts on April 12, the company said in an
emailed statement. It added that it had already started transferring
coupon payments for other bonds that mature in 2027 and 2037.

“Do you think we would have been better off in default?,” Maduro told
a business group in Caracas on March 23. “Let’s think of the national
interest, of our land. There continue to be insipid people who attack
Venezuela from the inside and outside when we all must unite in a
single effort to work.”

“Payment sources from anything other than petrodollar cashflow will
confirm a negative cashflow and hence a limited strategy for scarce
financing options,” Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America fixed-income
strategy at Nomura, said in a report on April 4. “If officials need to
monetize FX reserves then this confirms negative cashflow and less
flexibility for the passive muddling through strategy.”

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The Gulf's "little Sparta" The ambitious United Arab Emirates The Economist
Emerging Markets


TUCKED away behind rows of tin shacks and unkempt acacia trees, a
cluster of tumbledown villas, mosques and a synagogue conjures up the
grandeur of a port that once marked the southern tip of the Ottoman
Empire. “Berbera is the true key of the Red Sea, the centre of east
African traffic, and the only safe place for shipping upon the western
Erythraean shore,” wrote Richard Burton, a British traveller, in 1855.
“Occupation [by the British]…has been advised for many reasons.”

After the British came the Russians and in the 1980s NASA, America’s
space agency, which wanted its runway, one of Africa’s longest, as an
emergency stop for its space shuttle. Now the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) is Berbera’s latest arriviste. On March 1st DP World, a port
operator based in Dubai, began working from Berbera’s beachside hotel.
Officials put little Emirati flags on their desks, and refined plans
to turn a harbour serving the breakaway republic of Somaliland into a
gateway to the 100m people of one of Africa’s fastest-growing
economies, Ethiopia. Three weeks later the UAE unveiled another deal
for a 25-year lease of air and naval bases alongside. The agreement,
rejoiced a Somaliland minister in the hotel café, amounted to the
first economic recognition of his tiny republic. It would fill the
government’s coffers, and bolster its fledgling army. Businessmen sat
at his table discussing solar power stations, rocketing land prices
and plans for a Kempinski hotel.

Berbera is but the latest of a string of ports the UAE is acquiring
along some of the world’s busiest shipping routes. From Dubai’s Jebel
Ali, the Middle East’s largest port, it is extending its reach along
the southern rim of Arabia, up the Horn of Africa to Eritrea (from
where the UAE’S corvettes and a squadron of Mirage bombers wage war in
Yemen), and on to Limassol and Benghazi in the Mediterranean. Fears
that Iran or Sunni jihadists might get there first—particularly as the
region’s Arab heavyweights, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, seem to
flounder—propel the advance.

“If we waited to prevent these threats at our borders, we might be
overrun,” explains Ebtesam al-Ketbi, who heads a think-tank in Abu
Dhabi.

But as the expansion accelerates, observers are asking whether the UAE
is bent on “the pursuit of regional influence”, as Ms al-Ketbi puts
it, for its own sake. Most analysts ascribe this push to Abu Dhabi’s
56-year-old crown prince, Muhammad bin Zayed. He is the deputy
commander of the UAE’s armed forces, and the younger bro

The UAE has won Berbera and Eritrea’s Asaab base by agreement, but
elsewhere it applies force. In July 2015 it defied doubters, including
the Saudis, by capturing Aden, once the British Empire’s busiest port.
“They have the only [Arab] expeditionary capability in the region,”
oozes a Western diplomat, fulsome in his praise of the UAE’s special
forces, who mounted an amphibious landing to seize Aden from the
Houthis.

Some wonder what the prince’s father and the UAE’s founder, Sheikh
Zayed Al Nahayan, would have made of it all. “Be obedient to Allah and
use your intelligence instead of resorting to arms,” he used to
counsel when fellow Arabs went to war.

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Can Africa out-trump Trump? New African
Africa


On the face of it, the Trump administration will be bad for Africa.
The only plus point is that he knows so little about the continent
that the opportunity is there to try and fill in the blanks and using
his own negotiating philosophy, make him a deal he cannot turn down.
Question is, do we have the leadership with the skills to carry this
out? -

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DR Congo: What Next for the Political Process? ICG
Africa


The last ten days have seen important developments in the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC): the end of the DR Congo Catholic Church’s
attempts to implement its 31 December agreement, more violence in the
Kasai provinces, a new UN Security Council resolution, and a speech by
President Kabila announcing the imminent appointment of a new prime
minister. How are all these connected?

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South Africa's president is tottering @TheEconomist [I think he survives which makes it more bearish]
Africa


THE death of a struggle hero brought the great and good of South
Africa together in mourning. Ahmed Kathrada, who was sentenced to life
on Robben Island alongside Nelson Mandela, died on March 28th. His
funeral at a Johannesburg cemetery drew former presidents, sitting
cabinet ministers, the chief justice of the highest court and the
leaders of the African National Congress (ANC). There was one
conspicuous absence: Jacob Zuma. Instead, the man who had preceded him
as South African president read from a letter in which Mr Kathrada, in
a final act of resistance, called on Mr Zuma to resign. The crowd of
mourners erupted in cheers.

Such is the tenor of opposition to Mr Zuma, who has an approval rating
of just 20% among urban South Africans (though higher among rural
ones). Even those who backed him through countless scandals are now
calling for him to quit. Their pleas have fallen on deaf ears, with
the president growing ever more defiant. A day after the funeral, Mr
Zuma reshuffled his cabinet, firing the respected finance minister,
Pravin Gordhan, and his deputy, and replacing them with cronies. In
doing so, Mr Zuma defied warnings from his own party and the markets.

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What's behind South African finance minister's sacking? @sapresident @AJInsideStory
Africa


Presenter: Sami Zeidan
Guests:
Bongani Mbindwane - ANC supporter, businessman and newspaper columnist
Lawson Naidoo - executive director of the Council for the Advancement
of the South African Constitution
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management

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Barclays Africa Group Ltd. has fallen more than any other banking stock in Johannesburg in 2017
Africa


Barclays Plc investors angling for better returns when the lender
sells shares in its African unit have instead been hit by an 18
percent decline in the asset this year. Mired in South Africa’s
political turmoil, threatened by its parent’s disposal and battered by
an S&P Global Ratings downgrade of the country’s foreign-currency debt
to junk, Barclays Africa Group Ltd. has fallen more than any other
banking stock in Johannesburg in 2017.

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Nigeria needs an oil price of $139 a barrel to balance its budget, @FitchRatings said
Africa


Fitch’s forecast 2017 break-even oil prices, per barrel:
Nigeria at $139
Bahrain at $84
Angola at $82
Oman at $75
Saudi Arabia at $74
Russia at $72
Kazakhstan at $71
Gabon at $66
Azerbaijan at $66
Iraq at $61
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, at $60
Republic of Congo at $52
Qatar at $51
Kuwait at $45

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.45
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.53% 2017 [13 week high]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

132.63 +1.31 +1.00%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.67% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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One in three senior managers would offer a bribe to win or retain new business
Kenyan Economy


In Africa, that figure was higher, with 77% of those polled reporting
corruption in their sectors. Kenya ranked the highest in Africa, ahead
of South Africa and Nigeria, and sixth globally.

Kenya regularly tops lists of the world’s most corrupt countries.
Money destined for infrastructure, public services, and even its
Olympic team have all gone missing. The country’s auditor general said
in 2015 that only a quarter of the government’s 450 billion shilling
($4.35 billion) budget could be accounted for. In the private sector,
cases of fraud, bribery, and nepotism are common.
Kenya’s next generation of business leaders may be even more accepting
of corruption. Almost two thirds of respondents between the ages of 25
and 34 believed unethical behavior for the sake of one’s business
interests was acceptable. Only 49% of those between the ages of 45 and
54 agreed.

“With 73% of respondents from Generation Y holding the view that
unethical action can be justified to help a business survive, it is
imperative to pay attention to this younger generation, since they are
the future of businesses,” says Dennis Muchiri, leader of fraud
investigation and dispute services at EY in East Africa.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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