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Thursday 18th of May 2017
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Morning
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Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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Interview with @safaricomltd CEO @Bobcollymore FY Earnings
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12-MAY-2017 :: @BobCollymore deserved another term at @Safaricomltd @TheStarKenya
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Safaricom has done some serious heavy-lifting. CEO Bob Collymore has
presided over a golden age of shareholder value creation, presiding
over a +322.68% share price appreciation during his tenure and that is
juiced ‘’bigly’’ when you factor in the dividends that Safaricom has
paid out over that period.
In fact, I know Collymore is big on the sustainability agenda, but he
is a CEO who can afford to be because shareholder returns rank in the
top 1 percentile in the world. is is why Safaricom is on the radar of
practically every international investor in a way few sub-Saharan
Africa shares are. I am evangelical about Safaricom because they have
bridged Kenya inc into the new 21st information century. I recall a
time when there were 15,000 landlines. Today, you can connect with 7.5
billion people, you can plug yourself into the real-time via mobile
data and you can transact via M-Pesa. Safaricom has always bet big on
this information highway, and they have consistently been proven
correct.
Macro Thoughts
Watching this unravel in real time is just mind-boggling.
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Mr Bernanke added: "It always puzzled me a little bit - it still does - that markets are blase about political risk until the last moment." FT
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'The White House is going to go bonkers': How one Republican reacted to the Trump-Russia special counsel news @FT
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Impeachment odds @zerohedge
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The CBOE Volatility Index jumped more than 8 percent as of 7:53 a.m. in New York.
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Fed's rate-hike odds tumble after Washington chaos hits the bond market
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Watergate's ghosts haunt Trump after FBI leak. S&P plunged 50% from 1973 until Ford took office in Sep1974 @Schuldensuehner
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Dollar Index has erased all Trump pre-election gains as chaos at White House takes toll on mkt sentiment @Schuldensuehner
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Obama told friends Trump is a "bullshitter": report
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The "bullshitter" gets nailed right in front of our eyes in real time - This is better than any Reality TV
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Home Thoughts
Lets start with @SalmanRushdie and my favourite sentence of his
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"Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature a Dark Secret" P 206 Imaginary Homelands
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My Father has been in the hospital for about 20 days. And the last 20
days have been an emotional roller-coaster. There are days when he
speaks of his Dad [My GrandFather of whom I was very fond and who was
even fonder of me - Bha Bha would visit his wife's grave regularly and
i would accompany him, he would drive at 25 kph around Mombasa, with
Jackie the Dachshund [who committed suicide after my Grandad died by
leaping out of the car window] and his Mother [My GrandMother] as if
they are in the room. And then he turns to me in a moment of absolute
clarity and says
''Aly-Khan, Why am I talking about dead People?''
I said ''If you feel they are here, they are real.'' Because maybe
that is the African in me [See Ben Okri]. Strangely, when I visited my
Mother last before she passed away, she too would seemingly jump into
her past. Mum was very religious and in fact to quote Boris Johnson
who spoke of syncresis here in Nairobi could have been speaking of my
Mother who was wonderfully syncretic and happy to pray in a Church,
Mosque or Temple. Mum volunteered at the Jamaat Khana to wash the
bodies of the dead. She would always return to this story of how one
day she was washing a body and then she realised it was her best
Friend from Primary School [I don't really know why that came to my
mind].
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the 'syncretic' (@BorisJohnson's words not mine)
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The Swing by Kabir
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Songs of #Kabir
Between the Poles of the Conscious and the Unconscious
there has the Mind made a Swing. Thereon hang all
Beings and all worlds, and that Swing never ceases it's Sway
Millions of Beings are there The Sun and the Moon in their
courses are there Millions of ages pass And The Swing
goes on. All Swing! The Sky and the Earth and the Air and the Water
Islam [who I shipped up to Nairobi from Mombasa and was Dad's Driver
but now sits with him during the day] says to me He is confused. I
want to say, he is perfectly lucid We have to just tune in!
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DETROIT EMERALDS Feel the need ('77 LP Version)
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Can you guess how much this piece of art is worth? Roy Lichtenstein, Crying Girl, 1964 @business
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Both the speed of light and globalization figure in Virilio's writing. At one point he wrote:
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'The speed of light does not merely transform the world. It becomes
the world. Globalization is the speed of light.'[6]
Virilio is also quoted as saying,
'There is no such thing as globalization, there is only
virtualization. What is being effectively globalized by instantaneity
is time.'[10]:149
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Emmanuel Macron's cabinet shows France's alliance with Germany is back [ITS A LOVEFEST between Angela and Emmanuel]
Law & Politics
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This is c21st Shakespeare to have actually held the Prize @WhiteHouse in your hands then to willfully throw it away where is his Consigliere
Law & Politics
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Putin offers transcript to prove Trump did not pass Russia secrets @Reuters
Law & Politics
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"I spoke to him (Lavrov) today," a smiling Putin told a news
conference with Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni in the Russian
Black Sea resort of Sochi.
"I'll be forced to issue him (Lavrov) with a reprimand because he did
not share these secrets with us. Not with me, nor with representatives
of Russia's intelligence services. It was very bad of him."
Conclusions
Vlad is having a laugh
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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics
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I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS
Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.
Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave
his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’
Jeb — were devastating and terminal. The first thing is plausible
deniability
The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a
linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.
Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in
Italy said: is is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse
of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”
He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents
can broadcast live and over the top. From feeding the hot-house
conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised
perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which
drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s,
what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.
Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries
are his information victims.
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Arms package to Riyadh is between $98 billion and $128 billion. Over 10 years, total sales could reach $350 billion @ShibleyTelhami
Law & Politics
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Conclusions
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The deputy Crown Prince was quoted on Al-Arabiyya about Iran: "How can I communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi al-Montazar?"
Law & Politics
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This is deluded thinking at a time when things could seriously fall apart:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere e ceremony of
innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand
[W.B Yeats The Second Coming]
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From oil to jihad and 9/11: the highs and lows of the U.S.-Saudi relationship @Business
Law & Politics
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#Soudan : le president Omar el-Bechir invite a un sommet a Riyad avec Donald Trump @jeune_afrique
Law & Politics
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Europe's 'Trump rally' in spotlight amid political crisis via @blaiserobinson
International Trade
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Britain's unemployment drops to its lowest rate since 1975 @business
International Trade
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Time for some good news: #Japan real GDP grew a real 0.5% q/q (2.2% saar) in Q1, a fifth consecutive gain for first time in 11yrs. @Schuldensuehner
International Trade
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1134
Dollar Index 97.61
Japan Yen 110.92
Swiss Franc 0.9790
Pound 1.2962
Aussie 0.7438
India Rupee 64.355
South Korea Won 1125.12
Brazil Real 3.1369
Egypt Pound 18.0950
South Africa Rand 13.36
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This $USDJPY move has created a lot of happy traders in our Live Room. Great trade & even better psychology lesson @AkilStokesRTM 110.89 Last [108.00 Target]
World Currencies
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Dollar Index DXY drops to 6mth low 97.61 [93.50 Target]
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1134 [Target 1.1200 then 1.1450]
World Currencies
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30-DEC-2016 Optimal Portfolio at this moment looks like this 1. Long BITCOIN. 2. Long BITCOIN short Gold on Spread
World Currencies
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London's office vacancies surge as companies face Brexit uncertainty @business
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold 6 month INO 1258.35 [Well its a Geopolitical Proxy and Trump is now more than a Tail Risk]
Commodities
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Crude Oil 1 Month Chart INO 49.29
Commodities
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World's Most Expensive Earrings Fetch $57 Million at Sotheby's @Luxury
Commodities
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The earrings, known as the “Apollo Blue” and the “Artemis Pink,” were
bought by the same buyer, who wants to remain anonymous, Sotheby’s
said Wednesday. Named after ancient Greek gods, the pear-shaped
earrings were estimated at $50 million to $68 million combined.
The buyer renamed the 14.54-carat blue diamond “The Memory of Autumn
Leaves” and the 16-carat pink diamond “The Dream of Autumn Leaves.”
The previous record price for earrings was set by the “Miroir de
l’Amour,” two pear-shaped white diamond earrings that Christie’s sold
for $17.7 million in November.
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@AmandaRosenberg you, an idiot millionaire: buy houses. me, understands the world is burning:
International Trade
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@alykhansatchu 10 Jul 2016 Probably the best avocado I have ever tasted grown in the @MaraFairmont organic garden cc @MoshiPerera
International Trade
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08-MAY-2017 :: . Avocados [which are not in the commodity basket] have found an off-ramp and are at all-time highs.
International Trade
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Emerging Markets
Frontier Markets
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Angola Opposition Party Requests Report on President's Health
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Angola’s main opposition party asked the government for official
information about President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’s health after he
left in a private trip to Spain more than two weeks ago.
“There are many rumors about the health of the president and there is
a need to officially provide clarification about what is happening,”
Alcides Sakala, a spokesman for the National Union for the Total
Independence of Angola, said by phone from Luanda, the capital. “While
this is a society that is very fertile when it comes to rumors, there
is no official information available about the president’s health.”
Dos Santos’s daughter, Isabel, said on her Instagram account that
reports that her father had died were fake and aimed at causing
turmoil in Angolan politics. The 74-year-old Dos Santos, Africa’s
second-longest serving ruler, traveled to Barcelona on May 1, Angola’s
state-owned news agency Angop reported.
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Funds flock to #Senegal's #Eurobond, placing $9bn of orders @markets @PaulWallace123
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Senegal's $1.1 billion Eurobond was more than eight times oversubscribed
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The West African nation sold the 16-year securities on Tuesday with a
6.25 percent yield, after initially offering 6.5 percent. Investors
placed $9.3 billion of orders, the Ministry of Economy said in an
emailed statement. The money will be used for infrastructure projects,
including a regional commuter train and power supply.
Senegal’s economic prospects have been boosted by offshore oil and gas
finds. Kosmos Energy Ltd. announced the discovery of a gas field this
month that could hold about six times what the U.K. consumes annually.
The economy may grow 6.8 percent this year, the most in sub-Saharan
Africa after Ethiopia and Ivory Coast, according to the International
Monetary Fund.
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Jacob Zuma and Brian Molefe. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg
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The newly reinstated head of South Africa’s power utility has been
accused of attempting to influence a former minister, reversed plans
to close power plants that his predecessor claimed weren’t needed, and
set the country’s ruling party against its president.
He’s only been back on the job for two days.
Brian Molefe, who returned as Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd.’s chief
executive officer on Monday to staff posters welcoming back ‘Papa
Action,’ was moved to tears when he left the role in November. He
resigned following a graft probe by the Public Protector that found he
made decisions favoring the Gupta family, who are friends with
President Jacob Zuma. Molefe’s surprise reappointment, announced
Friday by Eskom Chairman Ben Ngubane, sparked a backlash that’s
stretched from opposition parties to labor unions and even the ruling
African National Congress, which told the government to reverse the
move.
“Politically and ethically the reinstatement stinks to high heaven,”
Aubrey Matshiqi, an independent political analyst, said. “It seems to
me that power has become so dispersed -- that some power lies in the
state, some power lies in the government, some power lies in powerful
economic actors, some power lies in powerful families.”
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +6.61% 2017
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 13.28 [Caveat Emptor]
Africa's richest man shuts food factory after pests destroy tomato
crop @Business
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +3.82% 2017
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +13.29% 2017
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Zambia's central bank cuts benchmark lending rate to 12.5 percent
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We have not yet adjusted our 5.3% FY 17 GDP forecast says Armando Morales @IMFNews
Kenyan Economy
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Professor Ryan says the Informal Sector is very efficient at allocating capital and employs a higher velocity @IMFNews REO
Kenyan Economy
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@CBKKenya DG Sheila M'Mbijjewe at @IMFNews SSA Regional Outlook ~ The New Normal - the way Banks made money before has come to an End
Kenyan Economy
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +2.83% 2017
137.12 -0.55 -0.40%
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.26% 2017
3,226.43 +5.24 +0.16%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
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N.S.E Today
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International Markets turned ballistic as Investors suddenly woke up
to Geopolitical risk, President Trump risk and a possible impeachment.
Mr Bernanke told the FT: "It always puzzled me a little bit - it still
does - that markets are blase about political risk until the last
moment."
Trump impeachment odds surged with Ladbrokes quoting an Odds-On Price
which is close to a racing certainty
''This is the single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American
history!'' President Trump tweeted a moment ago.
I believe President Trump is set to be terminated the remaining open
Question is the Method of Termination.
The markets which had been in a halcyon moment [the calm before the
storm] saw its nerves fray bigly yesterday.
The Dollar Index as returned to pre November 8th levels.
The US stock market had its biggest % Fall in 2017
The Brazilian markets halted Currency trading, Futures Crashed and
Bonds Tumbled Most On Record
Investors sought out safe havens with Gold and the Yen spiking higher big time.
I attended the IMF's Launch of their Regional Economic Outlook
yesterday and I have 2 Takeaways.
1. We have not yet adjusted our 5.3% FY 17 GDP forecast says Armando
Morales @IMFNews
2. And the IMF Economist confirmed tat Private Sector Credit growth
was negative in Q1 2017
The closing Data as not been received but the Equity Market has closed
at a 2017 High I am sure.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Safaricom rallied +1.234% to close at 20.25 and was the most heavily
traded share at the Exchange with 20.134m shares worth 412.030m
changing hands. I expect Fresh All Time Highs in due course.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
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KCB Group surged +3.42% to close at a Fresh 2017 High of 37.75 and
traded 1.894m shares. KCB is +31.3% in 2017 and a real Outlier in
2017.
COOP Bank firmed +0.59% to close at a Fresh 2017 High of 16.95 and is
now +28.4% in 2017.
Equity Group rallied +2.98% to close at a Fresh 2017 High of 34.50 and
is now +15% in 2017.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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EABL which has been oversold of late and Management a little
lackadaisical about laying the investment case rallied +1.32% to close
at 230.00 and was trading at session highs of 235.00 +3.52% at the
closing Bell. EABL traded 521,400 shares.
KenGen which crossed important chart resistance at 6.65 this week
pushed on +1.48% to close at 6.90 and traded 722,400 shares. This is a
chart Break-out and is underwritten at 6.65 by PIC SA.
Bamburi Cement traded a chunk of 335,200 shares all at 165.00 +3.13%.
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