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Wednesday 11th of October 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts |
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Alibaba Tops Amazon to Become the Biggest E-Commerce Company Africa |
After 831 days, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. regained the title of the world’s biggest e-commerce company, albeit briefly. The Chinese retailer surpassed Amazon.com Inc. Tuesday on an intraday basis as the U.S. retail giant’s stock continued to stall after second-quarter earnings missed estimates and the merchant forecast a possible operating loss for the third quarter. Alibaba -- whose stock is up over 109 percent this year -- held the top spot for the first 9 and a half months after its initial public offering in 2014.
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so proud of you @Malala Africa |
“For lovers, touch is metamorphosis. All the parts of their bodies seem to change, and they seem to become something different and better.” ― John Cheever
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Kelly and Mattis discussed literally tackling Trump in the event he 'lunges for the nuclear football': report @RawStory Law & Politics |
New York Magazine contributing editor Gabriel Sherman on Tuesday reported on a remarkable conversation he had with a senior Republican official, who described conversations Donald Trump’s chief of staff Gen. John Kelly and defense secretary James Mattis have had about “physically [restraining] the president” in the event he “[lunges] for the nuclear football.”
Sherman was discussing the growing concern in the West Wing over Trump’s temperament, particularly as the president continues to escalate feuds with prominent Republicans like Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) while simultaneously setting the United States “on the path to World War III.”
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Is Facebook spinning out of control over Russian revelations? @FT Law & Politics |
But Russia’s weaponisation of Facebook to influence last year’s US election has raised grave questions about whether Mark Zuckerberg’s product is spinning out of control.
Facebook’s newspaper ads listed nine “immediate” actions it is taking to fight any attempt to interfere with elections by using its site. It also vowed to protect “its community”.
But the measures have done little to ease the political pressure on the company. The revelations over Russia’s purchase of 3,000 political ads threaten to shake the business to its core.
Members of Congress who used to fawn over Facebook are realising the limitations of existing regulation. Its self-service platform lets anyone with a credit card buy ads without the need for direct contact with a Facebook employee. A complex algorithm creates filter bubbles that mean no single user has a full view of all the campaigns. Only in the past few weeks have lawmakers realised the potential for misuse.
The Russian-bought Facebook ads cost $100,000 and reached 10m Americans, targeting swing states with propaganda on everything from race to guns to gay rights. And the threat has not gone away: last month Russian internet trolls sought to stir up passions in a debate over American football players kneeling in protest during the national anthem, according to James Lankford, a senator from Oklahoma.
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18-SEP-2017 :: "A screaming comes across the sky", North Korea Law & Politics |
Gravity’s Rainbow is a 1973 novel by Thomas Pynchon which is about the design, production and dispatch of V-2 rockets by the German military. In particular, it features the quest undertaken by several characters to uncover the secret of a mysterious device named the “Schwarzgerät” (black device), slated to be installed in a rocket with the serial number “00000”. As the world watches PyongYang, I cannot help wondering if Kim Jong-Un has read Pynchon which speaks of “A screaming comes across the sky” and North Korea.
“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. ey must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
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Angelina Jolie 'volunteered' to snare warlord Joseph Kony in dinner honeytrap via @thesundaytimes Law & Politics |
The actress Angelina Jolie offered to act as a honeytrap to capture one of Africa’s most notorious war criminals, according to documents leaked from within the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The offer was made during discussions with Luis Moreno Ocampo, the ICC chief prosecutor at the time, who wanted to deploy the Hollywood star in the Central African Republic to help hunt down the Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony. In one leaked email sent by Moreno Ocampo, he claims that Jolie “has the idea to invite Kony to dinner and then arrest him”.
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Irma sends Florida's orange crop to at 76-year low Commodities |
The lowest since 1942.
At 31 million boxes, that’s the level for Florida’s orange crop following damage from Hurricane Irma, a state citrus group said Tuesday.
Irma ripped through in September, causing an estimated $2.5 billion in damage to the state’s agriculture, the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services said on Oct. 4. Preliminary estimates showed $760.8 million in damage to the citrus industry.
Orange juice for November delivery rose 1.6 percent to $1.60 a pound at 10:53 a.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The price has climbed 20 percent since the end of August. A box weighs 90 pounds, or 41 kilograms.
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"It needs one big negative thing for all of it to fall like a house of cards," said Guillaume Tresca Emerging Markets |
“It needs one big negative thing for all of it to fall like a house of cards,” said Guillaume Tresca, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole in Paris. “And that’s an aggressive Fed or macro data from China, but so far, we don’t see any such risk. Investors continue to play the game.”
And why not? A gauge of emerging-market currencies has jumped 15 percent and stocks have gained in 15 of the past 20 months, while bond spreads relative U.S. Treasuries sit at the lowest levels in a decade. The bullishness persisted in the face of an attempted coup in Turkey, an impeachment in South Korea and a power struggle in South Africa. The U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union and the election of U.S. President Donald Trump caused short-lived ripples.
Frontier Markets
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Liberia Begins Counting Ballots After Peaceful End to Voting Africa |
Election officials in Liberia started counting ballots after polling stations closed in presidential and parliamentary elections that regional observers said were conducted peacefully.
The economy expanded at an average rate of 7.5 percent a year between 2006 and 2013 until the nation was hit by the worst-ever Ebola epidemic that killed thousands of people. That, combined with a sharp drop in output of iron ore, Liberia’s main source of foreign currency, meant there was zero growth between 2014 and 2016.
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@IMFNews #WEO Africa |
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the outlook remains challenging. Growth is projected to rise in 2017 and 2018, but will barely return to positive territory in per capita terms this year for the region as a whole—and would remain negative for about a third of the countries in the region. The slight upward revision to 2017 growth relative to the April 2017 WEO forecast reflects a modest upgrading of growth prospects for South Africa, which is experiencing a bumper crop due to better rainfall and an increase in mining output prompted by a moderate rebound in commodity prices. However, the outlook for South Africa remains difficult, with elevated political uncertainty and weak consumer and business confidence, and the country’s growth forecast was consequently marked down for 2018.
Sub-Saharan Africa 2015 3.4% 2016 1.3% 2017 2.7% 2018 3.5%
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Is Africa still rising? Brahima Sangafowa CoulibalyFriday, October 6, 2017 Brookings Africa |
But Africa’s skeptics have overlooked a number of important factors. For starters, when one sets the three largest economies aside, Sub-Saharan Africa’s aggregate-growth rate for this year rises from 2.5% to almost 4%. That is faster than the 3.5% rate at which the global economy is currently growing. In fact, five of the ten fastest-growing economies in the world are in Africa. And over the next five years, around half of all Sub-Saharan economies will expand at an average rate similar to or higher than that which prevailed during the “Africa rising” heyday.
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"We can buy Naspers cheaper than we can buy Tencent," Mobius said Africa |
Naspers has piggybacked on Tencent to become Africa’s biggest company by market value and one of the world’s largest investors in e-commerce ventures from Mail.Ru Group Ltd. in Russia to iFood in Brazil. Its 33 percent stake in Shenzhen-based WeChat creator Tencent, bought for $32 million in 2001, is now worth $142 billion, while Naspers itself is valued at about $102 billion. Naspers is also Africa’s largest pay-TV provider.
“We can buy Naspers cheaper than we can buy Tencent,” Mobius said. “If you buy Naspers, you get an Africa satellite TV business for free and you are buying this big internet company Tencent at a discount. If you have a choice to buy Tencent or Naspers, you better buy Naspers.”
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09-OCT-2017 :: Politics Landing Blows on Economy @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
What is clear is that the advantage of incumbency in fact accelerates in this Round 2 of the Election. Therefore, I expect the Opposition to boycott the Election entirely. And that the strategy of tension will be maintained via degrading and denigrating the entire process. Market Participants need to model this scenario because this is the direction of travel.
''Essentially Kenya faces a very uncertain 21 days'' @DaMina_Advisors.
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +20.63% 2017 Kenyan Economy |
The Nairobi Securities Exchange All Share Index has fallen the most in Africa and is the fifth-worst performer in the world since Sept. 1, when the vote was declared void by the Supreme Court. The government’s international bonds due in 2024 have also dropped since then, with yields climbing 33 basis points to 6.35 percent.
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N.S.E Today |
Clearly the Equity Market is wrestling with this fluid and volatile Political scenario. In my article on Monday, I predicted a Raila Odinga boycott. The Market is looking for ''political'' closure. For now, i expect an election on the 26th and that will prove a Political Guillotine. The Opposition will of course seek to respond asymmetrically and in an insurgent manner and will be looking to the Street to maintain pressure. Kenya’s dollar-denominated 2024 sovereign bond fell as much as 1.2 cents on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. The Nairobi Securities Exchange All Share Index has fallen the most in Africa and is the fifth-worst performer in the world since Sept. 1, when the vote was declared void by the Supreme Court. The Nairobi All Share retreated -0.66% to close at 159.78 The Nairobi NSE20 Index slumped -51.97 points to close at 3644.80. Equity Turnover picked up speed and clocked 809.208m
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Williamson Tea was sold off a meaningful -8.53% on easy volume action of 152,600 shares [0.87% of the issued shares] worth 22.946m. Williamson Tea reported a FY Loss of [261.593m] vs. 482.747m the previous year.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom closed unchanged at 25.00 and was swimming against the prevailing tide trading 25.25 +1.00% at the finish line. Safaricom traded 10.732m shares worth 268.52m and Buyers [unperturbed by the political narrative] outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 2 to 1.
TPS Serena Hotels firmed +2.8571% to close at 27.00.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Equity Bank retreated -2.054% to close at a 4 month low of 35.75 and was trading at session lows of 35.25 -3.42% at the closing bell. Equity traded 2.010m shares. Standard Chartered [which exhibits the highest alpha of the Tier 1 Banks] traded 200,000 shares all at 227.00. StanChart is +33.00% on a Total Return Basis through 2017. KCB was marked down -3.025% to close at 37.75 a 3 and 1/2 month closing low. KCB traded 377,200 shares.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
BAT rallied +1.125% to close at 809.00 and traded 230,900 shares worth 187.024m.
EABL eased -0.41% to close at 245.00 and traded 461,100 shares worth 112.987m. EABL is +2.66% in 2017 on a Total Return Basis and as underperformed the Indices by a wide margin in 2017.
KenGen will report FY Earnings as early as next week and edged -1.65% lower to close at 8.90 and traded 235,600 shares.
ARM Cement PLC hereby wishes to notify its shareholders and the general public as follows: ARM has agreed to sell all its non-cement businesses as has already been announced and this transaction is now proceeding such that all relevant approvals are being applied for and conditions precedent being satisfied. ARM is currently in discussions with its key shareholders and secured lenders in respect of its medium term plans. The key shareholders are in advanced discussions to offer temporary short term financial assistance to ARM to improve the financing of its working capital. ARM engaged advisors to identify equity and/or strategic investors to further invest in ARM during the last quarter and the 1st round of investor engagement is ongoing. Mr Pradeep Paunrana will focus on the identification of a strategic investor who will invest in ARM to improve its balance sheet. ARM which was -48.03% in 2017 through this morning retreated -1.89% on robust volume action of 3.032m shares traded.
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