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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 01st of December 2017


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Macro Thoughts

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Dow Jones Industrial closed >24k for the first time ever Holger Zschaepitz

Dow Jones Industrial closed >24k for the first time ever. Wall St
record has occurred in tandem w/record margin debt. Margin debt now at
$561bn, double amount of tech bubble of 2000, 47% > than in 2007

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Winter in Paris

Political Reflections

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A 'madman' or methodical tactician? @Reuters profiles Kim Jong Un and delves into the young leader's history
Law & Politics

Donald Trump dismisses him as "Little Rocketman," but others discern
an evolving strategy behind changes the North Korean leader has made
since he came to power.

On an icy December day in 2011, North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong Un
was accompanied by seven advisers as they escorted the hearse that
carried his father, Kim Jong Il, through the streets of Pyongyang.

None of the men remain with the young Kim. This October, he demoted
the last of his father’s aides, both men in their nineties. They were
among around 340 people he has purged or executed, according to the
Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank of South
Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS).

Kim, “obviously a madman” in the eyes of U.S. President Donald Trump,
has completed a six-year transition to what the South calls a reign of
terror. His unpredictability and belligerence have instilled fear
worldwide: After he tested a “breakthrough” missile earlier this week,
he pronounced North Korea a nuclear power capable of striking the
United States. But a closer look at his leadership reveals a method
behind the “madness.”

To consolidate a weak position, the young leader has been cultivating
three main forces: military and nuclear power, a tacit private sector
market economy, and the fear and adoration of a god. To this end, he
has executed two powerful men and promoted one young woman – Kim Yo
Jong, his younger sister, who Korea-watchers say is also Kim’s chief
propagandist. She is Kim’s only other blood relative to be involved in
politics: His elder brother, Kim Jong Chol, was rejected by their
father as heir.

Over the five years to December 2016, Kim spent $300 million on 29
nuclear and missile tests, $180 million on building some 460 family
statues, and as much as $1 billion on a party congress in 2016 –
including $26.8 million on fireworks alone, according to the
Institute, which employs high-level defectors.

In Kim’s view, Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya
were fatally weakened by not having nuclear weapons, North Korean
media say. “History proves that powerful nuclear deterrence serves as
the strongest treasured sword for frustrating outsiders’ aggression,”
the official KCNA news agency said in an editorial in January 2016.

North Korea spends about a quarter of its GDP on defence: Russia’s
President Vladimir Putin has said Kim Jong Un would have his people
“eat grass” rather than give up its nuclear programme.


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18-SEP-2017 :: Kim Jong-Un has been precise and calibrated in his response to President Trump
Law & Politics

One of the strategies of the pre-regime change moment has been to
demonise the other leader. And front and centre in Kim’s mind must be
the image
of Saddam Hussein being hung by his neck and of Muammar Gaddafi
meeting his death after having been sodomised with a bottle. When you
view things from Kim the rocket man’s perspective, you might
appreciate that far from being illogical, he is in fact being
ruthlessly logical and he is speaking the language his adversaries
understand lucidly. 10 m folks in Seoul just 60 kms from the border,
28,500 US soldiers are all in the line of fire.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1899
Dollar Index 93.07
Japan Yen 112.57
Swiss Franc 0.9840
Pound 1.3531
Aussie 0.7564
India Rupee 64.51
South Korea Won 1088.28
Brazil Real 3.2727
Egypt Pound 17.6820
South Africa Rand 13.7274

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Stocks worldwide have never had such a long run of monthly gains and may post a banner year
Emerging Markets

A gauge of equities worldwide is set to post its longest unbroken run
of monthly gains

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

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20-NOV-2017 :: The genie is out of the bottle. @TheStarKenya

He had a warning for whoever takes over Zimbabwe: “If the next leader
does the same, we are going to come out again.”

I agree with US assistant secretary of state for African affairs
Yamamoto who said, “It’s a transition to a new era for Zimbabwe,
that’s really what we’re hoping for.”

The military which launched this decapitation are certainly set to
shape the outcome but now have a Tiger by the Tail.

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About 850,000 of the country's 16 million people have formal-sector jobs

According to government statistics, only about 850,000 of the
country's 16 million people have formal-sector jobs and most of those
are in the state sector, which faces cutbacks in the promised reforms.

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IMF to send mission to Zimbabwe in coming days

“We stand ready to support the authorities, in their efforts to design
policies that can indeed restore stability and growth,” Rice said.

He added that while a concerted international effort to “revive and
reintegrate” Zimbabwe’s economy will be needed, a financial assistance
package from the IMF can only be possible once there is progress on
clearing arrears with other international institutions.

Zimbabwe owes arrears of around $1.8 billion to the World Bank and the
African Development Bank. Suffering from decades of decline and
hyperinflation as a result of Mugabe’s economic policies, Zimbabwe has
not been able to borrow from international lenders since 1999, when it
started defaulting on its debt.

Last week, the IMF’s Zimbabwe mission chief said that the country’s
economic situation “remains very difficult” with growth threatened by
high government spending, an untenable foreign exchange regime and
inadequate reforms.

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20-NOV-2017 :: look for a big cash Boost from the international Community in order to stabilise the "now".

If Zanu-PF want to be part of that new more optimistic Future they
need to invite the Opposition into Government, look for a big cash
Boost from the international Community in order to stabilise the "now".

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Mnangagwa names first post-Mugabe Zimbabwe cabinet @FT

Emmerson Mnangagwa, who replaced Robert Mugabe as Zimbabwe’s president
after an army takeover, appointed a cabinet that included military
figures in key posts, and a supporter of rebuilding ties with
international lenders as finance minister.

No opposition politicians were included in the cabinet announced on
Thursday by Mr Mnangagwa, who promised a “new and unfolding democracy”
for the southern African country when he returned from exile and
became president last week after the 93-year-old autocrat resigned
after 37 years of rule.

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Bamburi Cement issues a FY 2017 Profits Warning

The expected decrease is mainly attributable to
1. weaker performance of the business in Kenya resulting from
contraction of the cement market, partly diue to poor private sector
credit growth, drought conditions together with the effects of the pre
and post election period.
2. Lower volumes to the Group's export markets

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Bamburi Cement share price data here

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           182.00
Total Shares Issued:          362959275.00
Market Capitalization:        66,058,588,050
EPS:             14.44
PE:                 12.604

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Mumias Sugar reports FY 17 EPS [4.43] Earnings here

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           1.10
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,683,000,000
EPS:             -4.43

Mumias Sugar Company Limted FY 2017 Results through 30th June 2017 vs.
30th June 2016

FY Revenue 2.091751b vs. 6.285917b -66.723%
FY Cost of sales [5.279897b] vs. [8.048406b] -34.398%
FY Gross loss [3.188146b] vs. [1.762489b] -80.889%
FY Fair value gain on biological assets 97.137m vs. 133.803m -27.403%
FY Administrative expenses [2.329932b] vs. [2.176058b] -7.071%
FY Impairment of assets [2.572703b] vs. [1.388856b] -85.239%
FY Finance costs [1.500153b] vs. [874.382m] -71.567%
FY Loss before tax expense [9.531178b] vs. [6.070519b] -57.008%
FY Loss for the year attributable to the owners of the company
[6.773934b] vs [4.756591b] -42.412%
Basic and diluted loss per share [4.43] vs. [3.11] -42.444%
Total equity 756.580m vs. 7.559964b -89.992%
No dividend

Company Commentary

During the Year Company suffered a net loss after Tax of 6.8b versus 4.8b
Major challenge was the acute sugar cane shortage experienced in the
region coupled with a 28% increase in cane price.
Total cane crushed was 407,008 tonnes, a drop of 67% compared to
1,215,566 tonnes crushed the previous year.
a lower production of 15,891 tonnes of sugar was achieved compared to
75,073 tonnes produced the previous year.
Ethanol plant produced 6.9m litres of ENA a 41% drop.
cogeneration and water bottling lines remained non-operational
throughout the year.
management made a decision to stop milling operations in the last
quarter of the year to focus on cane development activities and
factory plant maintenance
resumption of factory operations in October
The Board of Directors view the Company's outlook as positive.


Switch off the lights.

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Nairobi Business Ventures Limited reports H1 2017 EPS -0.63 Earnings here

Par Value:
Closing Price:           3.40
Total Shares Issued:          23600000.00
Market Capitalization:        80,240,000
EPS:             0.187
PE:                 18.182

Nairobi Business Ventures H1 2018 results through 30th September 2017
vs. 30th September 2016
H1 Revenue 8.007940m vs. 34.663639m -76.898%
H1 Cost of sales [3.504367m] vs. [13.483245m] -74.009%
H1 Gross profit 4.503573m vs. 21.180394m -78.737%
H1 Administrative expenses [5.160316m] vs. [3.617007m] +42.668%
H1 Other operating expenses [13.729434m] vs. [12.888750m] +6.523%
H1 Operating profit [14.386177m] vs. 4.674637m -407.750%
H1 Finance costs [0.517057m] vs. [3.189189m] -83.787%
H1 Profit before tax [14.386177m] vs. 1.485448m -1,103.282%
H1 Profit for the period/ year [14.903234m] vs. 1.039813m -1,533.261%
H1 Profit/ [Loss] per share [0.63] vs. 0.04 -1,675.000%
Shareholders’ funds 30.092353m vs. 78.883416m -61.852%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period/ year [20.303760m]
vs. [14.297868m] -42.006%

Company Commentary [extraordinarily illiterate]

The period under review was turbulent one for NBV alongside many
others in retail and fashion sector in Kenya.
NBV continued making losses due to very low sales turnover coupled
with working capital shortage, banks credit seize, economic slowdown,
low purchasing power many due to uncertainty in political situation
and ongoing election disputes during the period.
NBV management has taken steps to support working capital needs of the
company by way of providing shareholder loans as a short term measure
and exploring possibilities of raising long term capital to support
the revival of company's performance as well as continued planned
expansion of the Company.


These results speak for themselves. They are dreadful as is the
company commentary which is littered with spelling mistakes.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2017

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