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Wednesday 07th of August 2019 |
Morning, Africa |
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Macro Thoughts |
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Yuan's Slide Is Gold Standard Moment for China @BloombergQuint @georgemagnus1 Africa |
China allowing the yuan to slide below 7 to the dollar is a watershed moment for currency markets that's symbolically equivalent to the U.S. and other countries abandoning the gold standard in the interwar period, or the collapse of the postwar Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates four decades ago. The implications for the global economy are equally significant. The world’s major currencies aren’t tethered in the way they were in those periods, but gold and Bretton Woods both served as anchors for the world’s monetary system, and their demise reflected the economic and political disarray of their times. Today, the yuan is semi-pegged to the U.S. dollar. The arrangement serves as an anchor for China’s financial system, now the world’s largest by assets; for many currency systems in Asia and around the world; and for U.S.-China economic and financial relations. If that mainstay ruptures, it’s liable to set off chain reactions inside and outside China. That’s why the loosening in currency policy by the People’s Bank of China this week, while it may seem unremarkable for most people, is an important development.
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17-JUN-2019 :: So lets start with the enigmatic and mercurial Fugitive and Bitcoin evangelist John McAfee, who always seems to pop up in my Feed like an acid Trip whenever Bitcoin is doing its Parabola imitation. Africa |
But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’ Bitcoin is trading at Fresh Highs of $9,270.00 and aside from Beyond Meat and Zoom has posted the best returns in 2019 and is in triple digit % gain territory. Paul Virilio captured the essence of our c21st Zeitgeist with this quote
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The Street Octavio Paz Africa |
Here is a long and silent street. I walk in blackness and I stumble and fall and rise, and I walk blind, my feet trampling the silent stones and the dry leaves. Someone behind me also tramples, stones, leaves: if I slow down, he slows; if I run, he runs I turn : nobody.
Everything dark and doorless, only my steps aware of me, I turning and turning among these corners which lead forever to the street where nobody waits for, nobody follows me, where I pursue a man who stumbles and rises and says when he sees me: nobody.
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Forget Iran, Maximum Pressure Has Shifted To China @zerohedge Law & Politics |
China has had to respond to the riots in Hong Kong with a firm hand and is being backed into a dangerous situation to quell the unrest. Hong Kong is a key cog in the West’s ability to control China’s growth, so destabilizing it now makes sense. One can only hope that he’s right about this. Since Trump’s refusal to go to war in June, he has stepped up his attacks on China in ways that tell me Bolton isn’t done just yet and that Trump may not be fully under their control, but he’s also not anywhere close to a free actor.
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"Be Water," Bruce Lee's idea of how to overcome what may seem like insurmountable fear: "Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless, like water . . . Water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend." @thedailybeast Law & Politics |
Taking the concept even further, protestors have even formulated four principles: “Be strong as ice, be fluid like water, gather like dew, scatter like mist.” In public spaces, especially on subway trains, information about actions and rallies aren’t just shared on social media, but AirDropped from phone to phone, keeping the citizenry abreast of the latest developments in a direct way.
International Markets
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Pact is reached in Mozambique but prospects for peace still uncertain @ReutersAfrica Africa |
With a handshake, Mozambique’s leaders hope to close the book on a decades-long conflict on Tuesday. But an election in October and new causes of violence mean lasting peace is far from assured. After fighting on opposite sides of a civil war that erupted following independence from Portugal and killed more than one million people between 1977 and 1992, the ruling Frelimo party and former guerrilla movement Renamo signed a ceasefire that ended the worst of the bloodshed. However, violence has flared periodically in the years since, especially around elections. Analysts say the new accord, encompassing a permanent end to hostilities, constitutional changes and the disarming and reintegration of Renamo fighters into the security forces or civilian life, offers the best hope yet for a lasting solution to the conflict. “All of us have to be optimistic, because if nobody believes in peace, there will be no peace,” said Felipe Donoso, head of mission for the International Committee of the Red Cross in Mozambique. President Filipe Nyusi and Renamo leader Ossufo Momade, who will sign the deal, both hope it would score them political points ahead of presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections on Oct. 15. The poll could make or break the agreement, experts said. It will be the first time Renamo, now the country’s main opposition party, can compete for provincial governorships, satisfying demands for political inclusion and control over areas they dominate. The governorships offer a chance for Renamo to demonstrate that it is a functioning political party with the capacity to govern effectively, said Edward Hobey-Hamsher, senior research analyst at British-based risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. He and other experts interviewed by Reuters cited this as a main reason the agreement might succeed where its predecessors had failed. However, if Renamo does not achieve its election goals of winning governorships and feels cheated by Frelimo, the accord could quickly come undone. “Then the whole thing will collapse,” said Joseph Hanlon, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.
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The value of trade between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa was $41.2 billion last year, making the U.S. the region's third-largest trading partner. Trade with China was worth 3.5 times more. Africa |
“African economies are small and fragmented,” Muchanga said. “Bilateral agreements reinforce fragmentation of those markets.” “To replace AGOA, we would like to see an agreement between the whole of Africa and the U.S.,” Muchanga said in an interview at the forum in Abidjan, the commercial capital of Ivory Coast. Africa should negotiate with “one voice” for a new trade pact after 2025, he said. The U.S. and AU signed a joint statement on Monday at the AGOA Forum in Abidjan, saying they share a goal to enhance the AU’s effort to increase continental trade and investment under the African Continental Free Trade Area. The continent-wide trade agreement, that’s being driven by the AU, aims to create the world’s largest free-trade zone. It officially came into force in May and should be fully in operation by 2030. The AGOA accord provides 39 sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. for about 6,500 products, ranging from textiles to manufactured items. The act was first signed into law by former President Bill Clinton in 2000 and extended for 10 years by former President Barack Obama in 2015. Nagy has said previously the U.S. intends to replace it. The U.S. currently only has one free-trade agreement on the African continent -- with Morocco -- and is pursuing a trade deal with an unidentified country in sub-Saharan Africa. Nagy said that would be used as a model for others when AGOA expires. The AGOA preference scheme is underutilized and that’s why it’s going to be very difficult to renew it in 2025, Muchanga said. The new continent-wide free-trade agreement will help businesses gain experience to supply to a bigger market and export more goods to the rest of the world, he said.
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29-JUL-2019 :: Africa is proudly moving counter-trend with the (AfCTA). but it is a Silver Bullet Africa |
The overarching and interestingly at a time when the Rest of the World seems to be embarked on a process of Fragmentation and Globalisation coming apart at the seams, Africa is proudly moving counter-trend with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA). Of course, the Devil is in the Details of the execution and such things can simply fall apart in a deluge of Non-Tariff Barriers but it is a Silver Bullet particularly if we allow the free circulation of our People who are natural Entrepreneurs. Just look outside, there are markets just about everywhere.
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@Glencore Plans to Shut Giant Cobalt and Copper Mine in Congo @markets Africa |
Glencore Plc is planning to halt production at one of the world’s biggest cobalt mines after prices for the battery metal collapsed and costs at the project increased, according to a person familiar with the situation. The announcement that Glencore will close its Mutanda mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to come as the company lays out an overhaul of its key African copper and cobalt business when it releases first-half results on Wednesday. It would be another setback for Glencore, which has been dogged by operational problems, legal challenges and a rift with Congo’s government over a new mining code. Mutanda will stop producing at the end of this year and be put on so-called care and maintenance, according to the person who asked not to be identified as the plans haven’t been made public. It was already expected that the mine would produce half as much copper this year after it mined more complicated ores that raised costs. The Financial Times earlier reported Glencore’s plans to shutter the mine. “The mine is no longer economically viable over the long-term,” Glencore said in a letter to employees at the mine. Even though African copper and cobalt is a small part of Glencore’s overall business, it’s considered a key source of future profits. The company ranks as the world’s top producer of cobalt and investors have hoped Glencore would ride the boom in electric cars and battery demand. Mutanda produced 27,300 tons of cobalt last year, more than half Glencore’s total output, and 199,000 tons of copper. The decision to shutter the mine highlights how quickly cobalt has shifted from a prized asset to a headache. After quadrupling in two years, prices have collapsed to the lowest since 2016 as new supplies pour into the market. With few hedging tools available, the plunge has left Glencore exposed. The company said last week that it’ll report a $350 million non-cash hit to its trading business from cobalt that’s been mined, but not yet sold. Also on Tuesday, Glencore’s key Katanga Mining Ltd. unit in the Congo lowered its guidance for 2019. Katanga said it’s now expecting to produce about 235,000 tons of copper this year and about 14,400 tons of cobalt. That compares with a previous forecast of 285,000 tons of copper and 26,000 tons of cobalt. Glencore’s billionaire CEO Ivan Glasenberg has said Canada-listed Katanga hadn’t met expectations and a turnaround plan would be announced soon. Katanga struggled with a series of setbacks over the past year. Dozens of illegal miners were killed in a landslide at the company’s vast open-pit mine in July. The company said in April it would likely miss output targets for copper and cobalt. It had to halt cobalt sales in November after detecting radiation in the ore.
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