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Macro Thoughts

⬆️ Short Flextension & MPs back amended deal: 1.33-1.34
↗️ Flextension & MPs back deal subject to public vote (50:50 Brexit
reversal): 1.32
↘️ Flextension & Gen Election: 1.27-1.28
⬇️ Extension Brexit Limbo: 1.25
💥 No Extension, No Deal: 1.15

In each of these occasions, the Wizard appears in a different form,
once as a giant head, a beautiful fairy, a ball of fire, and as a
horrible monster. When at last he grants an audience to all of them at
once, he seems to be a disembodied voice. Eventually, it is revealed
that Oz is actually none of these things, but rather an ordinary
conman from Omaha, Nebraska, who has been using elaborate magic tricks
and props to make himself seem “great and powerful”.

Home Thoughts

Political Reflections

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issues warning over Renaissance Dam

While fuming Tuesday morning about the House Democrats' ongoing
impeachment inquiry, President Trump declared the probe a “lynching,”
prompting outcry at the inflammatory language.
“So some day, if a Democrat becomes President and the Republicans win
the House, even by a tiny margin, they can impeach the President,
without due process or fairness or any legal rights,” Trump tweeted.
“All Republicans must remember what they are witnessing here — a
lynching. But we will WIN!”
"You think this impeachment is a LYNCHING? What the hell is wrong with
you?" Rep. Bobby Rush, D-Ill., tweeted. "Do you know how many people
who look like me have been lynched, since the inception of this
country, by people who look like you. Delete this tweet."

الرئيس #الأسد: كل المناطق في #سورية تحمل نفس الأهمية، ولكن ما يحكم
الأولويات هو الوضع العسكري على الأرض.. @Presidency_Sy [He outlasted
them all]

The media quoted Assad as calling Erdogan a “thief who robbed
factories, wheat and fuel and is today stealing territory” —
apparently referring to Turkey’s invasion this month into northeastern
Syria to push out Syrian Kurdish fighters.

The real time Feed is a c21st Netflix and is both unputdownable and
incendiary. From Chile where Protestors burned down the headquarters
of ENEL [The Electricity Generating Co] after a proposed Price
increase and a state of Emergency has been imposed. All over Latin
America from Peru to Ecuador to Haiti to Honduras, Demonstrators have
taken to the Streets. The IMF cut the projected economic growth rate
for Latin America from 1.4 percent to 0.6 percent, citing domestic
policies and the U.S.-China trade war and clearly nose-diving economic
opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions. Of course, no country
is as extreme as Venezuela where GDP is down from $350bn in 2012 to an
estimated $60bn in 2019. People have been pushed to the Edge and are
taking to the Streets.
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, “The
revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of
production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog
in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), in other words a producer of speed.’’
This Phenomenon about which I am speaking is not limited to Latin
America. We have recently witnessed the ''WhatsApp'' Revolution in
Lebanon, where a proposed Tax on WhatsApp calls sent up to 17% of the
Lebanese Population into the street. Iraq is on a Knife Edge. Millions
of Algerians sent the wheelchair bound Bouteflika home not too long
ago. Hong Kong remains in open rebellion and trying to shake off the
''Crusher of Bones'' Xi Jinping and his Algorithmic Control.
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the
tinder dry conditions underfoot. Prolonged Stand-Offs eviscerate
economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative Feedback
Loop.
Antonio Gramsci wrote “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that
the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a
great variety of morbid symptoms appear....now is the time of
monsters.”
This level of unhappiness is unprecedented in a time of ''Peace'' and
in a time when our august Financial Institutions keep touting about
how it has never been so good for the Human Race.
Dr. Célestin Monga in a recent piece characterised the situation thus
The Great Discordance ''the planet is filled with rage and anger''
The New Economy of Anger ''Anger and discontent levels around the
world are high, despite the fact that most available indicators of
political and economic progress are better than they have even been''
Leadership in the c21st has become nationalistic and jingoistic,
horizons have been narrowed. President Trump is not John F Kennedy. Xi
Jinping is all about Han China. Narendra Modi is all about the
Hindutva. Boris is all about Brexit. In Africa, other than the Nobel
Prize Winner Abiy, who else is sketching out a horizon?  Todays
leadership does not appreciate the humanity of all of its Citizens,
how can they appreciate the humanity of the World or as
Marshall McLuhan once put it
“There are no passengers on the Spaceship Earth. We are all crew.”
Ryszard Kapuściński wrote
“Revolution must be distinguished from revolt, coup d’état, palace
takeover. A coup or a palace takeover may be planned, but a
revolution—never. Its outbreak, the hour of that outbreak, takes
everyone, even those who have been striving for it, unawares. They
stand amazed at the spontaneity that appears suddenly and destroys
everything in its path. It demolishes so ruthlessly that in the end it
may annihilate the ideals that called it into being.”
This is a Revolution and it is a Global Phenomenon.
Ryszard Kapucinski also said: "If the crowd disperses, goes home, does
not reassemble, we say the revolution is over."
It is not over. More and more People are gathering in the Streets.
Unless we are now going to Xinjiang the Whole World [A Million People
Are Jailed at China's Gulags. I Managed to Escape. Here's What Really
Goes on Inside @haaretzcom “Children are being taken from their
parents, who are confined in concentration camps, and being put in
Chinese orphanages,” he says. “Women in the camps are receiving
inoculations that make them infertile''], the current modus operandi
is running on empty.

Hong Kong, with its epic showdown between street demonstrators and
police over demands for more democracy, has grabbed most of the
world’s attention. But there also have been violent demonstrations in
Barcelona, Spain, over sentences of up to 13 years handed down by the
Spanish Supreme Court to leaders of the Catalan separatist movement
whose criminal act was to oversee a nonbinding referendum.
Elsewhere, economics and corruption have been the driving force, as in
Haiti, Ecuador and Chile in the Americas. In the Middle East, violent
demonstrations have occurred in Lebanon and Iraq over corruption and
failed government services. In Indonesia, a new law that weakened an
anti-corruption commission led thousands of people into the streets
for violent clashes with police.
The world, it seems, is channeling Howard Beale, the network
television news anchor in Paddy Chayefsky’s 1976 Academy Award-winning
movie “Network,” who, as he’s being forced out of his job over
dwindling ratings, gave voice to the unvoiced by bellowing, “I’m as
mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore!”
Interestingly, most of the global protests began with seemingly minor
friction points — a subway fare hike in Chile, a fuel-subsidy cut in
Ecuador, a new law in Indonesia — that ignited deeper anger and
frustration over poverty and corruption, or led the citizenry to
demand more democracy and self-governance.
Is this a tipping point? Probably not. But it is a sharp warning to
political elites around the world about what happens when governments
fail to address, or worsen, deep poverty and social divisions.
Income inequality is a massive problem, with the U.S. having the worst
of it. According to the research group Inequality.org, “the top 1% in
the United States holds 42.5% of national wealth, a far greater share”
than in other member countries of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development. “In no other industrial nation does the
richest 1% own more than 28% of their country’s wealth.”
But that doesn’t mean such disparity isn’t global. People with more
than $1 million in investments control 45% of the world’s wealth, the
group says. Conversely, those with less than $10,000 make up 64% of
the world population but account for less than 2% of global wealth.
And as governments are perceived to be serving the interests of the
haves over those of the have-nots, or of undercutting the public
interest for their own enrichment, protests are inevitable.
The demonstrations not only are the “language of the unheard,” they
are the predictable results of broken systems of governance. And the
first steps toward chaos.
The question is, will governments heed the messages of abject
frustration delivered by banners, rocks and firebombs?

When our politicians pass laws to raise their wage in less than a
week, but laws to have a better health plan and release money for
medical supplies take months and months, that's violence.”

Hong Kong law enforcement authorities have access to artificial
intelligence software that can match faces from any video footage to
police databases, but it’s unclear if it’s being used to quell
months-long pro-democracy protests, according to people familiar with
the matter.
Police have been able to use the technology from Sydney-based
iOmniscient for at least three years, and engineers from the company
have trained dozens of officers on how to use it, said the people, who
asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.
The software can scan footage including from closed-circuit television
to automatically match faces and license plates to a police database
and pick out suspects in a crowd.
In addition to tracking criminals, iOminiscient’s artificial
intelligence can be used for everything from finding lost children to
managing traffic. In one training session that took place after the
protests began in June, the people said, officers asked how to
automatically identify license plate numbers using dashboard cameras.
Questions over the use of facial recognition technology have loomed
over the protests, stoking fears that Hong Kong is moving closer to a
mainland-style surveillance state.
Demonstrators have worn masks, destroyed CCTV cameras, torn down
so-called smart lampposts and used umbrellas to hide acts of
vandalism.
Authorities in turn used an emergency law this month for the first
time in more than half a century to ban face masks, a move that
triggered increased violence.
“Hong Kong people are afraid of being captured by the CCTV cameras,”
said Bonnie Leung, a district councilor and a former leader of the
Civil Human Rights Front, which has organized some of the biggest
protests in the past few months.
“Why are people still wearing face masks? Because of the police surveillance.”
While Hong Kong’s government has disclosed some ways it uses facial
recognition technology, Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s administration
and the police haven’t publicly confirmed whether they are using it to
monitor the protests.
Patrick Nip, secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs, said
in June that no government department had procured or developed
automated facial recognition-CCTV systems or applied the technology in
CCTV systems.
Nip’s office referred all questions on facial recognition technology
to the police, which didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.
iOmniscient declined to comment on whether Hong Kong’s police use its
facial recognition technology.
The company said that its technology also has the capability to keep
identities anonymous for such uses as crowd control. Its systems are
used in more than 50 countries and only a small portion of overall
revenue comes from Hong Kong, where business opportunities are
relatively limited given privacy concerns and fewer cameras compared
with other cities, according to the firm.
Under Hong Kong’s privacy laws, which are more stringent than the
mainland, members of the public must be informed if they’re subject to
surveillance.
If authorities are matching faces or names to identity markers, that
would fall under the privacy ordinance, according to Stuart
Hargreaves, a law professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong who
researches surveillance and privacy issues.
However, police can claim an exemption if the data is being used to
detect or prevent crime.
“Is the ‘facial recognition’ simply the police combing through video
footage for ‘known individuals,’ or is there some kind of automated AI
system at play?” Hargreaves said. “The truth is we simply do not
know.”
The world’s five most-watched cities are all in China, with the top
city of Chongqing having about 168 cameras per 1,000 people, according
to estimates by Comparitech.
By comparison, Hong Kong’s 50,000 CCTVs are one-tenth the number in
London and not enough to put it in the top 20 most-watched cities.
Hong Kong authorities have tried to appease concerns by pointing out
that there is no in-built facial recognition in recently installed
smart lampposts or in CCTV cameras at China government offices.
Still, the technology has been used in the city for more than a
decade, including at the airport and Shenzhen border for immigration
control.
Next year a new electronic identity system is scheduled to come into
effect in which as many as 100 public services will make use of
biometric authentication, including facial recognition, eye scans, and
finger and voice prints.
A unit of Ping An Insurance Group Co., whose shareholders include the
Shenzhen government, is responsible for the design, implementation and
support of the core system, as well as facial recognition and imaging
processing, according to a government statement in April.
Some Chinese companies recently blacklisted by the U.S. over human
rights concerns in the far west region of Xinjiang have their tech in
Hong Kong. Face scan technology from AI startup Yitu Technology will
be among the options that staff can choose to access the headquarters
of the government’s electrical and mechanical services department,
according to a June statement on the three-month trial project.
Yitu didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co. cameras with facial
recognition capabilities are installed outside of buildings including
the Leisure and Cultural Services Department, though the facial
recognition function hasn’t been turned on, according to responses
from government agencies to lawmaker Charles Mok. The department told
him it sent footage from its cameras to police seven times since the
protests began.
“The whole thing is: do you trust the government with your data?” said
Mok, who has been in the information technology industry for more than
20 years. “That’s the problem, if there’s a whole breakdown of trust.”
A Hikvision spokesperson said its products are sold through third
parties, so it cannot confirm camera locations or whether a specific
function is turned on. The group opposes the U.S. sanctions and is
working to address concerns, recently retaining former U.S. Ambassador
Pierre-Richard Prosper to advise on human rights and compliance.
On Hong Kong’s streets, riot police have sought to avoid the cameras
even while arresting more than 2,000 protesters, including nearly 100
people for violating the mask ban. They’ve used flashlights to disrupt
media coverage, and some officers removed ID numbers and donned masks
to hide their identities for fear that they could become victims of
personal attacks online, known as doxxing.
Apple Inc. recently pulled a live mapping app used by protesters to
track some police deployments including of water cannons.
Hong Kong protesters have continued distributing masks at rallies,
telling demonstrators to take one “if you aren’t feeling well” to take
advantage of exemptions in the law.
At least one Hong Kong company, TickTack Technology, pulled out of the
smart lamppost program after protesters tore one down and found a
Bluetooth Beacon the company used to signal its location to devices
including smartphones. Demonstrators then doxxed some of the group’s
founders.
“We prefer to be low-profile till things cool down,” a TickTack
spokesman said by email.
Hong Kong’s Innovation and Technology Bureau said in a statement that
it “deeply regrets” that a local enterprise was cowed into stopping
the supply of its technology, calling it a “serious blow” to local
innovation. The government has denied that the lampposts have facial
recognition capabilities.
Hong Kong’s colleges are also involved in facial recognition. Tang
Xiaoou, a professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Department of
Information Engineering, is a founder of SenseTime, the world’s most
valuable artificial intelligence startup.
The developer of facial recognition was among eight Chinese companies
blacklisted by the U.S. over Xinjiang, where the Chinese government
has implemented a massive program of surveillance and re-education
camps to monitor the local mostly Muslim population.
The company said it sees its technology as a “global force for good”
and is disappointed with the U.S. sanctions, and will work to address
any concerns.
Sensetime said its focus in the city is on education and it does not
have any contracts with the Hong Kong government. The group published
Hong Kong’s first textbook on artificial intelligence for secondary
schools.
Banks including HSBC Holdings Plc allow clients to open accounts with
selfies under guidelines of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which is
also considering allowing face scans for ATMs. Customs guidelines
allow firms to use face scans for security.
The current protests may dampen enthusiasm for greater use of facial
recognition. As demonstrations have become more violent and intense
over the weeks, the number of masks has grown -- including, more
recently, those of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Guy Fawkes
mask associated with the Anonymous movement.
“The government is just trying to take away our rights,” Angus, a
22-year-old student wearing a surgical mask and black clothes, said on
the day Lam announced the ban. “They’re just the tool of the Chinese
government. We don’t want to be China.”

@joshuawongcf told German Media "Hongkong ist das neue Berlin"

Dissent is measured and snuffed out very quickly in China. China has
unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang where a combination of data
from video surveillance, face and license plate recognition, mobile
device locations, and official records to identify targets for
detention [CDT]. Xinjiang is surely a Precursor for how the CCCP will
manage dissent.  The actions in Xinjiang are part of the regional
authorities’ ongoing “Strike-Hard” campaign, and of President Xi’s
“stability maintenance” and “enduring peace” drive in the region.

China Inc. is struggling to offload overseas businesses and the
accompanying debt in an increasingly volatile market.
In just a few weeks, companies from yacht makers to luxury clothing
and pizza outlets -- acquired by Chinese firms in recent years -- have
either scrapped planned initial public offerings or sought
alternatives to reduce their debt piles.
Ferretti SpA, the Italian superyacht maker controlled by China’s
SHIG–Weichai Group, shelved its planned Milan listing last week,
citing weak market conditions.
Shandong Ruyi Technology Group Co., which spent over $4 billion on
purchases including U.K. trench coat maker Aquascutum, introduced a
local state-owned firm as its second-largest shareholder amid rising
pressure to repay debt.
Chinese firms started selling off assets two years ago when the
government tightened curbs on capital outflows and stepped up scrutiny
on foreign acquisitions.
Geopolitical factors from the U.S.-China trade war to Brexit and
protests in Hong Kong and Chile are hurting sentiment in dealmaking on
uncertain outlook.
“It’s a big process of adjustment,” Mark Webster, a managing director
at investment banking adviser BDA Partners in Shanghai, said in a
phone interview.
“Some Chinese companies made overseas acquisitions at the top of the
cycle and ended up overpaying for assets that did not make a lot of
strategic sense. They are now finding it challenging to offload those
businesses at fair values.”
Beyond luxury, sectors less sensitive to economic cycles are also
having issues. PizzaExpress Ltd. hired a financial adviser to prepare
for debt talks with its creditors, people familiar with the matter
said earlier this month.
The iconic U.K. casual dining chain has been struggling with its
domestic market at a time when it’s expanding in China after its
acquisition by Chinese private equity firm Hony Capital in 2014.
The volume of Chinese outbound deals was at $59 billion so far this
year, a 13% drop from a year earlier, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
It’s a far cry from the peak of such M&A activities in 2016, when
China National Chemical Corp. agreed to buy Swiss agrochemical maker
Syngenta AG for $43 billion.
China’s HNA Group Co., once among the most aggressive in foreign
acquisitions, found itself stymied in an attempt to sell out of plane
lessor Avolon Holdings Ltd. for a valuation of about $8.5 billion,
Bloomberg News has reported.
“Bigger financial and regulatory hurdles and the global geopolitical
instability make it even harder to get deals done now,” Webster said.

Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher 2 Vani-
ty[a] of vanities, says the Preacher, vanity of vanities! All is
vanity. 11 There is no remembrance of former things,[c] nor will there
be any re- membrance of later things[d] yet to be among those who come
after.

I recently visited a museum exhibit on big cats. A sign featuring a
beautiful jaguar asked, “Why should we care about wild cats?” Its
answer: “Because in protecting big cats, we are protecting ourselves.”
Is that really true? That implies big cats are in trouble because “we”
don’t care to protect ourselves. And if it turns out that we don’t
really need jaguars in order to protect ourselves, have they lost
their case for existence?
For decades, many conservationists have been trying to sell a clumsy,
fumbling appeal to self-interest: the idea that human beings need wild
nature, need wild animals, need the species on endangered lists. “If
they go extinct, we’ll go extinct,” is a common refrain. The only
problem: it’s false.
We drove the most abundant bird in the Americas — the passenger pigeon
— to extinction. The most abundant large mammal — the American bison —
to functional extinction. We gained: agriculture, and safety for cows,
from sea to shining sea. Who misses the Eskimo curlew? Indeed, who
knows they existed, their vast migrating flocks like smoke on the
now-gone prairies? That experiment is done.
Billions of people want what you and I got in exchange: health and
wealth and education. We now live the way most other people on the
planet wish to live. Governments, institutions, and regular people
have cheered the material expansion that has cost many species (and
tribal peoples) everything. We have endangered species not because
what is bad for them is bad for us, but because the opposite is true:
what is bad for them has fueled the explosive growth and maintenance
of human populations and technologies. We are losing many species
along the way to humanity’s only three apparent real goals: bigger,
faster, more. Propelling the human juggernaut has entailed wiping many
species out of the way. People live at high densities in places devoid
of wild species and natural beauty. Human beings have thrived by
destroying nature. When the animals and open spaces go, we have
industrial-scale farms and factories, ball fields and strip malls and
quick-lubes. How could saving this or that endangered species, that is
following those whose oblivion brought fast food and sneakers, be a
matter of — of all things — saving ourselves? Telling people that “we”
need jaguars to “protect ourselves?” That’s a hard sell. We don’t need
them.
I can’t name a single wild species whose total disappearance would be
materially felt by, essentially, anyone. There is no species whose
disappearance has posed much of an inconvenience for civilization, not
a single wild species that people couldn’t do without, fewer whose
erasure would be noticed by any but a handful of die-hard
conservationists or scientists. The irrelevance of wild things to
civil society is why endangered species never make it into polls of
top public priorities. I can’t name one wild species whose total
disappearance would be materially felt by, essentially, anyone (you
can easily function without having access to elephants, but if you
misplace your phone for one whole day, it’s personal chaos). But I can
effortlessly list various species from tigers to mosquitoes whose
annihilation has been diligently pursued. Annihilation comes easy to
Homo sapiens. What’s of little interest for us is coexistence.
I have seen with my own eyes that the role of elephants as ecosystem
engineers affecting all animals on the African savannas matters not at
all to people converting bushland into vulnerable subsistence gardens
or, more decisively, into large commercial farms raising flowers
destined for vases on the tables of Europe. Think of your favorite
species. Gorillas? Sperm whales? Hyacinth macaws? Karner blue
butterflies? Billions of people never give them a thought.
Only a tiny minority of people actually work with wild creatures, as
ecologists, conservation biologists, wildlife rehabilitators,
falconers, or even fishermen (oddly and not coincidentally I’ve been
all of those.) On an average day, animals and plants must put up or be
pushed out. In most countries, few wild things can “provide” to humans
anything more valued than their carcasses. Many major American tree
species have disappeared or nearly so (American elm, American
chestnut, eastern hemlock, for instance). Ash trees are now
disappearing and the main pain-point for humanity is nothing more than
angst for the future of baseball bats.
It is of course true that the things that are bad for nature as a
whole — degradation of land and soil, polluted water and air — are bad
for people ultimately. A total breakdown of living systems would mean
a breakdown of human economies, and indications are it likely will.
But “ultimately” is very far down the line, long after we’ve lost all
the big animals, wild lands, viable ocean habitats, and the world’s
living beauty. The human juggernaut can continue to blow through
rhinos, parrots, elephants, lions, and apes and hardly feel a breeze.
The most charismatic species all stand at or near historic lows and
humans are at our historic high, two facts that are sides of the same
coin. Claiming that people depend on wild nature is nice, but
dependence on wild nature ended, and not well, generations ago. What
keeps most people going is farming felling, pumping, and mining.
Far down the line when the land is exhausted and there’s no water on
an overheated planet, there may be a great reckoning. It’s easy enough
to hear the rumbles now. But even the recent hurricanes and fires that
have left communities seemingly beyond recovery have not shaken the
deniers. In this country, government disdain for natural places and
species, and official ennui about the human health effects of
environmental degradation, are worst-ever. And the current rollbacks
remain too weakly opposed; most people don’t feel affected. Most of
wild nature could be gone long before the human species confronts an
existential cliff.
What a grim world it will be by the time we’re down to what humans
need. Human need is a very poor metric for evaluating the existence of
living things.
The natural services humans actually need to fuel modern living come
from microbes of decay, a few main insect pollinators, the ocean’s
photosynthesizing plankton, and non-living things like water and the
atmosphere. Eventually we may well simplify the world to the bare
essentials, and it will still support billions more people. Indeed,
that’s the only way it can.
What a grim world it will be by the time we’re down to what humans
need. Which only shows that human need is a very poor metric for
evaluating the existence of living things. Ask living creatures to
justify their existence in terms of human need; they lose.
So, in what bleak terrain does this leave us? The law that has been
called the gold standard of species protection, the U. S. Endangered
Species Act, doesn’t begin to get interested until after a species,
considered in isolation, is already in dire straits. Then it sets a
floor, measuring success as mere existence. A wiser law would target
an aspirational ceiling of robust, resilient populations across broad,
intact scapes of viable lands and productive waters.
Yet when applied in good faith it works. It works because of something
many environmentalists have forgotten, most average people never think
about, and most politicians are incapable of learning: it works
because it doesn’t ask a species to prove its usefulness, what they’re
good for, or how much money they’re worth. The act doesn’t say that we
need them. It acknowledges that we harm them.
In its first words, “The Congress finds and declares that various
species of fish, wildlife, and plants in the United States have been
rendered extinct as a consequence of economic growth.” It says that
recovery plans shall “give priority to… particularly those species
that are, or may be in conflict with construction or other development
projects or other forms of economic activity.”
Yet many conservationists continue trying to make the flimsy case that
we need endangered species. And because the argument is false, it can
be a counterproductive pandering to the self-interest of people who
simply won’t care. “Prove that I need some endangered snail or whale.”
You can’t.
Fortunately, you don’t have to. The argument was decided decades ago,
by Congress on behalf of all Americans, in favor of what you and I
care about. The Endangered Species Act doesn’t claim that our
existence depends on the existence of wild species.
It says that we, the people, don’t let species go extinct, that this
is who we are. It’s not about practicality; it’s about morality. The
moral compass of species stewardship or loss is already mainstream —
loss is bad. Conservationists and rank-and-file nature lovers should
not pick that scab by trying to show that nature can and must serve
us. The law says we need to serve nature. That’s a lot to work with.
Of course, laws are only as strong as the support they have.
Conservationists must not only remind themselves that the law guides
policy based on moral principle; they must continue to make the wide
case for that underlying moral principle. When people say, “What good
are they. They’re in the way!,” conservation needs a stronger argument
than an appeal to self interest. Self interest has already been
considered and nature has lost.
Oil palms make money; never mind orangutans. We don’t need orangutans
in order to “protect ourselves.” Orangutans need us to protect them.
But how best to press the case for life on Earth?
Humans have considered ourselves the most moral of species. A moral
species has moral obligations. Despite capitalism’s appeal to
self-interest, religions continue to assert the primacy of right and
wrong. It may be that in our social species the only thing capable of
standing up to pure self-interest is moral suasion. But what religions
have underplayed — and indeed some have disdained — is seeing the
physical world as sacred. On this planet where astrobiologists detect
no other life in the galaxy, the rarity and perhaps even uniqueness of
life in the universe makes Earth a sacred place. All known meaning in
the universe is generated here, because this is the only living
planet.
Winning the war against the natural in pursuit of accelerated material
living, we lose the beauty that makes living worthwhile.
Although wild nature is not necessary for human survival, it is
necessary for human dignity. Some of the grimmest places for human
existence are those where nature has been scorched.
People can lose their dignity in various ways, including oppressive
governments. But oppressive surroundings are sufficient.
Zoom out from “endangered species” to the big picture. Abundant
multitudes of species, wild things in wild places, anchor beauty to
the face of this planet. What is true is this: Wild things create and
live in the remaining beautiful places.
As wild animals disappear, what is lost is the world’s beauty. Winning
the war against the natural in pursuit of accelerated material living,
we lose the beauty that makes living worthwhile.
That is not trivial. It is the most profound thing on Earth.
Ecology — living relationships and reliances — may be the only concept
containing sufficient scope for a future worth humanly living. Ecology
is most easily perceived by this shorthand: natural beauty.
Each of our senses has ways of informing us what is good and bad. Our
sense of smell evolved to sense things good for us as smelling
pleasant and bad as smelling putrid.
Our mind evolved the ability to combine all our sense into one overall
detector of what is good in the world, and that best overarching sense
is what we call “beauty.”
As the beauty of the world drains away, we become less than human in
the long run. And part of the long run is now.
Beauty is the single criterion that best captures all our deepest
concerns and highest hopes.
Beauty encompasses the continued existence of free-living things,
adaptation, and human dignity. Really, beauty is simple litmus for the
presence of things that matter.
If a future reckoning arrives for the human species, as seems likely,
it will come because we asked life to prove its value compared to
ever-more corn and shopping discounts, but could not hear the real
answer. It will come because we did not see our planetary miracle as
sacred.
Endangered species and wild things in the remaining wild places need
us to care for them not selfishly but selflessly, for their sake, the
sake of everything and everyone who is not us, for the sake of beauty
and all it implies.
As we make our habitual appeals to practicality, the argument we
cannot afford to ignore, the one that must frequently be on our lips,
is this: We live in a sacred miracle. We should act accordingly.

International Markets

Euro 1.1127
Dollar Index 97.526
Japan Yen 108.38
Swiss Franc 0.9893
Pound 1.2867
Aussie 0.6844
India Rupee 70.89375
South Korea Won 1171.76
Brazil Real 4.0797
Egypt Pound 16.1981
South Africa Rand 14.626

Commodities

"oil fundamentals have recently improved, with a large 3Q deficit and
declining EM inventories both setting the stage for OECD stock draws
into year-end. With the headwinds of strong US producer hedging and
high freight rates fading, we expect stronger Brent timespreads and
higher prices in coming weeks, with upside risk to our year-end
$62/bbl forecast"

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

There is a lot of interest in the summit because the Russian role in
Africa is a historical one. Since the 1970s, there are no negative
things in history. Russia's hands were white hands in Africa. We
consider the summit a great return for Russia to activate its role
again in Africa with a new concept of investment, mutual respect and
infrastructure. And advancement.

The Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bomber, nicknamed the White Swan in
Russia, is a supersonic Soviet-era aircraft capable of carrying up to
12 short-range nuclear missiles and of flying 12,000 kilometers
non-stop without refueling.
Cited by Interfax on Monday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it will
fly two Tu-160s, an Ilyushin Il-62 passenger jet and an Antonov An-124
military cargo plane to South Africa. Russian news agencies reported
after midnight that the An-124 and Il-62 had already landed in the
country.

The world’s largest wheat exporter, Russia is also looking to ramp up
its supplies of grain and fertiliser to meet demand that is rising in
step with Africa’s booming population.
“We see how an array of Western countries are resorting to pressure,
intimidation and blackmail of sovereign African governments,” Putin
told the TASS news agency.
“They are using such methods to try to return lost influence and
dominance in their former colonies in a new guise and rushing to pump
out maximum profits and to exploit the continent,” he said.
By contrast, Putin said Russia was ready to offer help without
“political or other conditions” and to embrace the principle of
African solutions for African problems.
Russia plans to put on an arms fair at the summit, showing
Russian-made weapons including its S-400 missile defence system, other
air defence systems as well as non-military equipment, according to
the Almaz-Antey arms manufacturer.
In trade terms, though, Moscow lags far behind competitors. Russia
says its trade with African countries rose to $20 billion last year,
but Russia did not rank among the continent’s top five largest trade
in goods partners, according to Eurostat.
That list was topped by the European Union, followed by China, India,
the United States and the United Arab Emirates.

Based on data from almost 2,500 polling stations out of a total of
more than 20,000, the the Electoral Institute for Sustainable
Democracy in Africa (EISA) estimates Nyusi will win 70.9% of the vote.
Though official results have yet to be announced, former guerrilla
movement turned main opposition party Renamo has already rejected the
outcome, decrying irregularities in the process from voter
registration through to counting.
Perceived fraud and an unhappy Renamo threaten a fragile peace accord
signed just months ago between its presidential candidate, Ossufo
Momade, and Nyusi.
EISA programme officer Domingos Rosario said that during its count,
the institute found that in many polling stations across seven
different provinces, the number of votes greatly exceeded the number
of voters registered at that station.
So far, Nyusi has taken 74.6% of the presidential vote versus 20.2%
for his main rival, Renamo candidate Ossufo Momade, the website shows.
EISA estimates Momade will end up with around 21.4% of the vote while
Daviz Simango, of smaller rival the Mozambique Democratic Movement,
will secure 6.9%, Rosario told a news conference.
The pact was meant to bring a formal and definitive end to four
decades of violence between the two, shoring up Mozambique’s stability
just before blockbuster gas projects in the gas-rich north led by the
likes of Exxon Mobil Corp and Total take off.
Instead, it is at risk of collapse as tensions rise. Nyusi and
Frelimo, which has controlled Mozambique since independence from
Portugal in 1975, were widely expected to win the election but not by
such a significant margin.
Frelimo spokesman Caifadine Manasse said Renamo regularly complains
about elections, despite being part of all the electoral bodies and
having delegates at voting stations.
“Renamo is not serious about democracy,” he said.

Renamo has claimed last week’s vote was rigged and called for it to be
nullified. The preliminary results of two-thirds of the ballots
counted show President Filipe Nyusi leading with 75%, while Renamo
obtained 20% support -- much less than expected. Renamo, short for the
Mozambican National Resistance, fought a 16-year civil war against the
government until 1992.
Renamo’s political commission resolved at a meeting on Monday to “urge
all Mozambicans not to accept mega electoral fraud,” party President
Ossufo Momade told reporters in the capital, Maputo, after the
meeting. He listed of instances where he claimed his party had been
disadvantaged, including the alleged murder of its members and social
activists, voter register discrepancies and irregularities with the
counting process.
At stake is control over an economy that’s expected to become one of
the world’s biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas, as companies
including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Total SA plan projects of more than
$50 billion in the country’s northern region.
Russia welcomed Nyusi’s victory and said “no serious violations were
detected” in the elections, according to a statement.
“It’s very difficult to go back to war,” he said by phone. “They’re
not well-equipped anymore.”

Angola’s central bank stopped using a trading band that kept the
kwanza’s value within a fixed range, accelerating the currency’s
slump, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The kwanza began a sharp depreciation after the central bank started
holding daily auctions of $10 million each on Oct. 9, according to the
results of these auctions on the National Bank of Angola’s website. In
theory, the central bank had ended the trading band earlier this year,
but continued to impose the rule at its regular auctions to limit the
depreciation of the kwanza, one source said.
The monetary policy committee will hold an extraordinary meeting on
Wednesday to fine-tune “measures and instruments of monetary and
exchange rate policy,” it said on Oct. 20. The bank has cut its
benchmark rate by 250 basis points in the past 18 months to 15.5%.

Kenya

According to disclosures from the National Treasury statement of
actual revenues and net exchequer issues which are published on the
Kenyan gazette, tax income for government dropped by 32.4 percent
between July and September from Ksh.632.9 billion over a similar
period in 2018.
Month over month, new taxes fell at their sharpest in September as
collected revenues shrunk to Ksh.98.9 billion from Ksh.329.1 billion
in September 2018.
The declining tax base is largely attributable to the continued
deplorable macroeconomic environment whose incapacitation has locked
out key revenues for government.
A mark down in tax compliance coupled with reduced company investments
saw KRA miss out on its expected Ksh.1.77 trillion in revenue
collection in the past year by 11 percent in spite of notable spike in
collections to Ksh.1.58 trillion.
Further, the widening of employee tax bands had the opposite effect of
containing the Pay As You Earn (PAYE) taxes as the segment’s revenue
base shrunk by Ksh.6.1 billion.
Moreover, the de-coupling of the Kenyan economy towards lesser revenue
yielding segments such as agriculture continues to pose a significant
stranglehold on greater collections as automation in the more
discerning tax bases such as finance and manufacturing seals off
greater collections.
“Sectors where we traditionally get a lot of revenues are showing
weaknesses while on the vice versa, lesser yielding segments have
become dominant,” said KRA’s Deputy Commissioner for Innovation and
Risk Management Joseline Ogai in August.
The falling tax base has presented the largest doubt to Kenya’s fiscal
containment among multi-lateral lenders such as the World Bank as the
accumulation of public debt remains on forward footing.
The declining taxes for instance saw the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) raise Kenya’s debt distress profile from low to medium in
October 2018 on the back of years of persistent misses in revenue
mobilisation by government.
According to World Bank’s Chief Economist for Kenya Peter Chacha, the
shift in tax contributory segments remains the key ongoing concern to
the assessment of Kenya’s distress levels.
“There has been a disconnect in revenue mobilization with a decline in
the growth of tax to GDP. We have seen the decoupling of the structure
of the economy with a shift of growth towards lower contributory
segments such as agriculture,” Mr. Chacha said in an interview earlier
this month.
KRA however hopes to clap back on missed revenue targets going forward
through improved tax compliance to include greater surveillance of tax
payers.
The improved surveillance is anchored on innovation with the tax man
sinking to sync tax payers’ information with third party data bases
such as Kenya Power and mobile money services.
Additionally, KRA has stepped up its pursuit of tax cheats as mirrored
by the consistent indictments of tax evaders and their subsequent
prosecutions.
The tax man hopes to prosecute an estimated 600 individuals on tax
evasion by the end of June 2020 having indicted 222 persons in the
past year to see a 60 percent surge in tax recoveries to Ksh.8.5
billion.
KRA is expected to pull up its socks in the nine months to the end of
the current fiscal year with Treasury having pushed up the agency’s
revenue targets to Ksh.1.81 trillion.

Can 100 images tell the stories of 50 million people? The
‘Demographica’ project aims to find out. By Katie G Nelson
Africa’s population is growing, and quickly. According to the UN more
than half of global population growth between now and 2050 will happen
across the continent.
Kenya is a big part of this equation: the country now has nearly 50
million people, and its population is predicted to about double by
2050.
And, unlike many of its global counterparts whose populations are
rapidly ageing, Kenya’s population is one of the youngest. Its rapidly
growing youth demographic isn’t its only defining feature, however:
with 44 recognised tribes, Kenya is also among the most ethnically
diverse countries on Earth.
Although many numbers tell Kenya’s population story, its shifting
demographics may be far deeper and more dynamic than the purely
quantitative statistics that define them.
Nairobi-based photographer Tobin Jones, 32, set out to create a
vibrant, nuanced representation of Kenya ­– his 100-image
“photographic infographic” called ‘Demographica’ – which aims to put
faces and stories to population statistics.
Born in Botswana and raised in Malawi and Kenya, Jones has had a
front-row seat for Kenya’s massive population changes over the last
three decades.
Seeking an objective way to understand Sub-Saharan Africa’s evolving
composition, Jones carved out the foundation for Demographica by
sifting through pages of Kenyan population data and drilling down on
four important components: age, urban versus rural location, tribal
make-up and gender.
On a 10-by-10 grid Jones began marking out boxes to represent the data
he’d mined, and created what a scaled down, visual representation of
Kenya’s population would look like.
Packing his camera, a black backdrop and stool, Jones drove to all
corners of Kenya to capture the subjects who accurately represented
the demographics he’d identified, stopping at small villages and along
winding roads to collect more complex demographic combinations.
He offered each subject an explanation of his project and a copy of
the photo in exchange for a portrait.
Covering hundreds of miles and over 12 months, Jones tried to answer
the question: what does Kenya look like in only 100 pictures?
Age: Kenya’s youth boom
Kenya, like many countries in Africa, is incredibly young. Kenya’s
median age is only 20 and nearly three quarters of the population –
37.5 million people – is under 30, according to Bernard Onyango, a
knowledge translation scientist at the African Institute for
Development Policy.
“Kenya is such a young country and you don’t understand that until you
see 100 photographs,” says Jones.
In his portraits, 59 feature people 24 years old or younger
(representing 29.5 million people), and 34 feature people between 25
and 54 (17 million people). Only four feature people 55 to 64 (2
million people), and just three portraits are of subjects 65 or older
(1.5 million people).
Such a young population puts incredible pressure on already
overburdened government services like public schools, which are facing
swelling enrolment and massive underfunding.
And, eventually, the bulge student population will transition into the
job market, where a surplus of workers could either lead to
accelerated growth or an unemployment crisis.
 “I don’t want to use the words ‘ticking time bomb’, but it is
certainly is a challenge,” says Bela Hovy, chief of the Migration
Section, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs at the United Nations.
Gender: equal, but not balanced
In the Demographica series the number of men and women is split 50/50,
an even balance that will remain mostly steady across Kenya in the
next several decades.
But despite the equal population split, Kenya is still coping with
challenges in equal rights across genders. For example, on average,
men make 55% more money than Kenyan women, according to the 2018 World
Economic Forum Global Gender Gap Report.
Similarly women only hold 9% of all elected positions in Kenya and
attempts to pass bills requiring more equal gender quotas have been
snubbed by parliament.
Differences like this will pose a problem for not only the growing
number of young women as they seek opportunity, but also for Kenya’s
future writ large.
“We don’t get to tap into the full potential of our women and girls,
and so more investment has to be made there,” says the African
Institute for Development Policy’s Onyango.
Urban versus rural: rapid urbanisation
Rapid urbanisation is a hallmark of development across Africa. While
about 74% – or 37 million – Kenyans still live in rural areas, more
and more are migrating to densely populated cities in search of better
employment and education opportunities.
In Demographica, only 26 images represent urban dwellers – about 13
million Kenyans. But change is coming: by 2050, the number of people
in cities is expected to increase to nearly half the country’s
population, according to the Population Division of the United
Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Urbanisation is a natural and necessary step to development, says the
UN’s Hovy. However, managing resources and infrastructure planning may
be a challenge. Onyango agrees crumbling infrastructure and poor
planning will put incredible pressure on city services like water,
sanitation and housing.
“The question isn’t whether [urbanisation is] happening or not – it’s
happening,” says Hovy. “We have to make sure that it is happening in a
way that is sustainable, planned, and that it’s not going to lead to
unsustainable overpopulation.”
Africa’s population is growing, and quickly. According to the UN more
than half of global population growth between now and 2050 will happen
across the continent.
Kenya is a big part of this equation: the country now has nearly 50
million people, and its population is predicted to about double by
2050. And, unlike many of its global counterparts whose populations
are rapidly ageing, Kenya’s population is one of the youngest. Its
rapidly growing youth demographic isn’t its only defining feature,
however: with 44 recognised tribes, Kenya is also among the most
ethnically diverse countries on Earth.
Although many numbers tell Kenya’s population story, its shifting
demographics may be far deeper and more dynamic than the purely
quantitative statistics that define them.
Nairobi-based photographer Tobin Jones, 32, set out to create a
vibrant, nuanced representation of Kenya ­– his 100-image
“photographic infographic” called ‘Demographica’ – which aims to put
faces and stories to population statistics.
Born in Botswana and raised in Malawi and Kenya, Jones has had a
front-row seat for Kenya’s massive population changes over the last
three decades.
Seeking an objective way to understand Sub-Saharan Africa’s evolving
composition, Jones carved out the foundation for Demographica by
sifting through pages of Kenyan population data and drilling down on
four important components: age, urban versus rural location, tribal
make-up and gender.
On a 10-by-10 grid Jones began marking out boxes to represent the data
he’d mined, and created what a scaled down, visual representation of
Kenya’s population would look like.
Packing his camera, a black backdrop and stool, Jones drove to all
corners of Kenya to capture the subjects who accurately represented
the demographics he’d identified, stopping at small villages and along
winding roads to collect more complex demographic combinations.
He offered each subject an explanation of his project and a copy of
the photo in exchange for a portrait.
Covering hundreds of miles and over 12 months, Jones tried to answer
the question: what does Kenya look like in only 100 pictures?
In his portraits, 59 feature people 24 years old or younger
(representing 29.5 million people), and 34 feature people between 25
and 54 (17 million people). Only four feature people 55 to 64 (2
million people), and just three portraits are of subjects 65 or older
(1.5 million people).
Such a young population puts incredible pressure on already
overburdened government services like public schools, which are facing
swelling enrolment and massive underfunding. And, eventually, the
bulge student population will transition into the job market, where a
surplus of workers could either lead to accelerated growth or an
unemployment crisis.
 “I don’t want to use the words ‘ticking time bomb’, but it is
certainly is a challenge,” says Bela Hovy, chief of the Migration
Section, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs at the United Nations.
Gender: equal, but not balanced
In the Demographica series the number of men and women is split 50/50,
an even balance that will remain mostly steady across Kenya in the
next several decades.
But despite the equal population split, Kenya is still coping with
challenges in equal rights across genders. For example, on average,
men make 55% more money than Kenyan women, according to the 2018 World
Economic Forum Global Gender Gap Report. Similarly women only hold 9%
of all elected positions in Kenya and attempts to pass bills requiring
more equal gender quotas have been snubbed by parliament.
Differences like this will pose a problem for not only the growing
number of young women as they seek opportunity, but also for Kenya’s
future writ large. “We don’t get to tap into the full potential of our
women and girls, and so more investment has to be made there,” says
the African Institute for Development Policy’s Onyango.
Urban versus rural: rapid urbanisation
Rapid urbanisation is a hallmark of development across Africa. While
about 74% – or 37 million – Kenyans still live in rural areas, more
and more are migrating to densely populated cities in search of better
employment and education opportunities.
In Demographica, only 26 images represent urban dwellers – about 13
million Kenyans. But change is coming: by 2050, the number of people
in cities is expected to increase to nearly half the country’s
population, according to the Population Division of the United
Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Urbanisation is a natural and necessary step to development, says the
UN’s Hovy. However, managing resources and infrastructure planning may
be a challenge. Onyango agrees crumbling infrastructure and poor
planning will put incredible pressure on city services like water,
sanitation and housing.
“The question isn’t whether [urbanisation is] happening or not – it’s
happening,” says Hovy. “We have to make sure that it is happening in a
way that is sustainable, planned, and that it’s not going to lead to
unsustainable overpopulation.”
It may seem ironic in all of Kenya’s massive population growth, but
the birth rate is actually falling. In 1978, women were having 8.1
children on average; in 2008, the number had dropped to 4.6. By 2050,
that number is expected to decrease to 2.4 children.
But while birth rates are expected to slow in coming years, the
overall population of Africa will continue seeing massive growth,
reaching more than 2 billion people by 2050.
It’s a tall order to keep a country booming as its population swells.
Without proper planning and investments in infrastructure and job
creation, critics say that many of these 2 billion citizens will face
immense challenges.
Others believe that rapid urbanisation, cultural assimilation and
careful family planning may offer hope to countries such as Kenya
which are facing massive demographic shifts.
“[The future] may seem overwhelming, but let’s not forget the enormous
progress that we’ve made,” says Hovy. “I would paint the demographic
dividend as an opportunity, and we need to take advantage of that.”
Demographica is part of celebrating that progress. Its depiction of
Kenya shows that ongoing shifts in age, gender, tribe and location may
actually bridge the differences that once divided the country – or
bring it closer together than before.
“What a project like this does is it kind of humanises statistics,”
says Jones. “It’s a way of kind of coming to terms with reality and
seeing how our world’s changing.”