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Thursday 21st of November 2019
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Afternoon,
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Register and its all Free.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
Macro Thoughts
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a look at the world's highest-yielding sovereign dollar bonds. It's all Lebanon and #Argentina. @PaulWallace123
Africa
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Yuan moving on the back of those headlines, last 7.046 @themarketear
Africa
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13-AUG-2019 :: The most important currency to watch right now is the USDCNH
Africa
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Home Thoughts
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If you are looking for a Kenyan horror film script here is an idea from real events: @RAbdiCG
Africa
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Baby-snatching eagles with deadly talons strike in Mandera. They prey
on human babies below 3. Have appetite also for bald heads. Women
mobilise to fight back. Bald heads use metallic hats, wigs
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OMG! Shark!!! Oh...H/T @Hadrians_Gate
Africa
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The common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius), or hippo, is a large, mostly herbivorous, semiaquatic mammal and ungulate native to sub-Saharan Africa
Africa
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It is one of only two extant species in the family Hippopotamidae,
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Be afraid. Be very afraid. @TheAtheistArg
Africa
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Now we'll have 2 months without sunshine here in Tromso, but the polar night light is the most beautiful @BenedikteUteng
Africa
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Cowrie shells found in a grave on Gotland, imported from the Red Sea or Indian ocean area: @caitlinrgreen
Africa
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Object from the exhibition We call them Vikings produced by The
Swedish History Museum
Cowrie shell
Imported cowrie shells
were sometimes worn as pendants. From the Red Sea or Indian ocean area.
Grave find, Bjästavs, Sanda, Gotland, Sweden. SHM 1763
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VII. The Sea The Sea Shell William Wordsworth (1770-1850) From "The Excursion," Book IV
Africa
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I HAVE seen
A curious child, who dwelt upon a tract
Of inland ground, applying to his ear
The convolutions of a smooth-lipped shell;
To which, in silence hushed, his very soul 5
Listened intensely; and his countenance soon
Brightened with joy; for from within were heard
Murmurings, whereby the monitor expressed
Mysterious union with its native sea.
Even such a shell the universe itself 10
Is to the ear of Faith; and there are times,
I doubt not, when to you it doth impart
Authentic tidings of invisible things;
Of ebb and flow, and ever-during power;
And central peace, subsisting at the heart 15
Of endless agitation.
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"We learn nothing from history except that we learn nothing from history." --Marcus Tullius Cicero @steve_hanke
Africa
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Here we go round the prickly pear
Africa
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Here we go round the prickly pear
Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear
At five o’clock in the morning.
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
The Hollow Men T.S. ELIOT
Political Reflections
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President #DonaldTrump holds notes while speaking to the media before departing the White House for Texas: Mark Wilson #QuidProQuo @GettyImagesNews
Law & Politics
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THREAD. I've read the Sondland Testimony, and boy is it devastating to Trump. Remember, this is the one guy Trump pointed to to exonerate him. Excerpts and quick analysis below. @neal_katyal
Law & Politics
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Dear @neal_katyal The Pivot in the call with Sondland re "No Quid Pro Quo" was a potential escape hatch because Few Folks will interrogate the time line I think
Law & Politics
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Forward ... reverse ... forward ... and again backing up the bus over @SecPompeo's face @gtconway3d
Law & Politics
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Holy cow Gordon Sondland going full John Dean in opening statement: Confirms his view the WH plot was "quid pro quo" Implicates Giuliani Shows Pompeo in the loop with new evidence Implicates Trump, testifies this was on his orders @AriMelber
Law & Politics
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Adds new emails and evidence
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SONDLAND: "Mr. Giuliani's requests were a quid pro quo for arranging a White House visit for President Zelensky" @kylegriffin1
Law & Politics
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Mr. Giuliani was expressing the desires of the President of the United
States, and we knew that these investigations were important to the
President."
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Pompeo knew. Bolton knew. Mulvaney knew. "Everyone was in the loop," Sondland testifies. @sbg1
Law & Politics
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04-NOV-2019 :: @Potus currently undergoing an impeachment process at the hands of "Nervous" @SpeakerPelosi [his moniker which probably is a linguistic transference of a sort]
Law & Politics
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Pollice verso or verso pollice is a Latin phrase, meaning “with a
turned thumb”, that is used in the context of gladiatorial combat. It
refers to the hand gesture or thumb signal used by Ancient Roman
crowds to pass judgment on a defeated gladiator.
The Madison Square UFC 244 verso pollice moment is a Shakespeare level
moment for President Trump and of more import than the Impeachment
process because Impeachment is political and therefore the outcome
should split on Political Party lines.
The Republican Party will be making a hard nosed political calculation
this weekend that if the President is getting booed at a UFC event,
the Base is lost.
Vice President Pence who is an evangelical Christian [and is in the
habit of praying with another evangelical Christian and Nobel Prize
Winner far away in Addis Ababa, allegedly] is the coming Man and this
could happen real quick.
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President #DonaldTrump holds notes while speaking to the media before departing the White House for Texas : Mark Wilson #QuidProQuo @GettyImagesNews
Law & Politics
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15-OCT-2018 :: War is coming @TheStarKenya
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"Between war and peace, there's no doubt we should choose peace," says China's Vice President Wang Qishan at #neweconforum @neweconforum
Law & Politics
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In late January 2019, China released footage showing off it's devastating new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Dongfeng ("East Wind") DF-26. has been dubbed the "Guam Killer". @man_integrated
Law & Politics
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15-OCT-2018 :: Apart from a few half-hearted and timid FONOPs [freedom of navigation operations], China has establi- shed control over the South China Sea. It has created artificial Islands and then militarised those artificial islands across the South Ch
Law & Politics
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China never signed the INF, nor any other non-proliferation or non-development agreement. @man_integrated
Law & Politics
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The Chinese could do as they please.
The US was fighting with one hand tied behind its back.
Asymmetry of force is a key goal in any conflict.
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15-OCT-2018 :: The incident with the USS Decatur where a Chinese warship came within 45 yards of the USS Decatur in South China Sea is surely a precursor.
Law & Politics
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As of today, China has 11 models of ballistic missile, with overlapping ranges, launch platforms (sea/land/air), and payloads. BRI is the artery. Missiles are the blood. @man_integrated
Law & Politics
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They further have 3 models of conventional cruise missiles, with the
HN-3 reaching out to 3000 km.
BRI is the artery. Missiles are the blood.
And China took it from the US.
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15-OCT-2018 :: "This geopolitical contest will likely escalate dangerously. Powerful forces on both sides are driving the world's two strongest countries toward full-fledged confrontation"
Law & Politics
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First, the US does not have a publicly-known capability to "get inside" China's ballistic missile threat envelope, outside of submarines and our own intercontinental ballistic missiles. @man_integrated
Law & Politics
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The trade war, fundamentally, is the only form of asymmetric warfare available to the Trump administration. @man_integrated
Law & Politics
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The US cannot bully the Chinese militarily. They have the Navy boxed out.
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The media, culture-makers, companies who rely on Chinese labor/infrastructure, and many US "allies" all have a vested interest in lying about the trade war.
Law & Politics
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China doesn't play by the rules. Their missiles have declared the end
of US hegemony. And the West paid for them.
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Few Chinese believe that China and the US can reach a deal soon. Given current poor China policy of the US, people tend to believe the significance of a trade deal, if reached, will be limited @HuXijin_GT
Law & Politics
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China wants a deal but is prepared for the worst-case scenario, a
prolonged trade war.
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Trump says China would have to make a deal he likes and threatens to raise tariffs further if no trade deal is reached with Beijing @Reuters
Law & Politics
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26-AUG-2019 :: China Strikes at Trump
Law & Politics
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@IvanTheK put it pithily and tweeted ‘’CHINA TO THE CHOSEN ONE: GFY’’
The Stock Markets fell sharply. The overarching Question Investors
need to ask themselves is this
Is this a permanent rupture? Or is this a crazy off the charts
escalation just before a Deal? The Markets pirouette on the answer to
this question.
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27-MAY-2019 :: China vs. US War Ballistic
Law & Politics
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The point being in the trade war Trump is no longer the decider. In
the US, there is clearly a consensus baseline for a full-on toe to toe
slugfest as it were. In China, however, there is only one decider who
was pronounced as much by Xinhua in a historical announcement in March
2018.
Xi reckons he can direct a successful, society-wide struggle in the
trade dispute’’ Notwithstanding all the hyperbole and very partisan
commentary, the following are the plain Truths.
The Markets are still pricing in a benign [but much less benign than a
month ago] Outcome. We need to consider what a non-benign or even
maximum non-benign outcome looks like.
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The Art of the Deal it's Xi who is the Decider because it is Xi who can crash the US Stock market and with it @POTUS' re-election chances - quite an extraordinary Signal in all the Noise
Law & Politics
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Looking at the data one will see that #China has been divesting its presence from abroad to cover for the lack of incoming capital. @mnicoletos
Law & Politics
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In 2016 China’s Net Outward Investments (Investments - Divestments)
reached 278bn USD, for 2019 this number is likely to go negative >>
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Xi Jinping specifically speak of "The End of Vanity"
Law & Politics
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I only recently discovered Ecclesiastes and clearly Xi was ahead of me
in this regard.
Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher 2 Vani-
ty[a] of vanities, says the Preacher, vanity of vanities! All is
vanity. 11 There is no remembrance of former things,[c] nor will there
be any re- membrance of later things[d] yet to be among those who come
after.
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10-JUN-2019 :: There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen," said Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.
Law & Politics
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Victoria North West and North region have been advised to evacuate - almost half the state of Victoria. #CodeRed #auspol @Jansant
Law & Politics
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30-SEP-2019 :: The End is Nigh.
Law & Politics
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the feedback loop and the risks of die back where we enter a phase of
‘’cascading system collapse’’
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Whale sharks could be swallowing 137 pieces of plastic an hour because the surface waters where they feed are so contaminated @thetimes
Law & Politics
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The biggest fish, which can reach 12m (40ft) long and weigh 40 tonnes,
ingest hundreds of cubic metres of water a day and filter it to
extract tiny plankton.
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Complex systems have mechanisms, not leaders. @nntaleb
Law & Politics
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21-OCT-2019 :: Leadership in the c21st has become nationalistic and jingoistic, horizons have been narrowed.
Law & Politics
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This is a Revolution and it is a Global Phenomenon.
International Markets
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1077
Dollar Index. 97.88
Japan Yen 108.59
Swiss Franc 0.9908
Pound 1.2928
Aussie 0.6799
India Rupee 71.75
South Korea Won 1177.78
Brazil Real 4.1967
Egypt Pound 16.099
South Africa Rand 14.7574
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Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 97.88
World Currencies
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$EURUSD 1hr Chart: See Chart @FXPIPTITAN 1.1077
World Currencies
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18-NOV-2019 :: The Pound has risen from multi years lows like a Phoenix and has room to rally further specially if Bojo builds a big lead.
World Currencies
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$GBPUSD 1hr Chart: Danger Zone For Shorts: 1.2941/1.2951 @FXPIPTITAN 1.2929
World Currencies
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Commodities
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Oil - the trend channel since October still in place 56.86
Commodities
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Emerging Markets
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EM Currencies - the JPM EM FX Index looks like it is going to break to new all time lows. @RaoulGMI
Emerging Markets
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13-AUG-2019 :: The Feedback Loop Phenomenon
Emerging Markets
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China has exerted the power of pull over a vast swathe of the world
over the last two decades. We can call it the China, Asia, EM and
Frontier markets feedback loop.
This feedback loop has been largely a positive one for the last two
decades. With the Yuan now in retreat [and in a precise response to
Trump], this will surely exert serious downside pressure on those
countries in the Feed- back Loop.
The Purest Proxy for the China, Asia, EM and Frontier markets feedback
loop phenomenon is the South African Rand aka the ZAR.
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Yields Past 100% Just Put Lebanon Debt Into Venezuela Territory @markets @PaulWallace123
Emerging Markets
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The political crisis in Lebanon has sent the yields on some of its
dollar bonds into triple digits.
Rates on the government’s $1.2 billion of notes maturing in March next
year climbed 15 percentage points on Tuesday to 103%.
They were at 13% five weeks ago, just before the start of nationwide
protests that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and
exacerbated the nation’s economic strife.
With Lebanon viewed by many bond traders as a default waiting to
happen, cash prices have become more important than yields as they
factor in potential recovery rates.
That’s inverted the government’s curve and distorted yields at the
shorter end. The price of Lebanon’s 2020 debt is 78 cents on the
dollar, while that of its April 2021 securities is 56 cents.
Still, it’s rare for a nation’s dollar yields to reach triple figures.
Even in Argentina -- where investors are far from convinced that the
incoming leader Alberto Fernandez can fix the country’s economic woes
-- they haven’t gone far beyond 85%. Some of Venezuela’s short
term-term bonds reached 100% around the time it defaulted in late
2017.
Lebanon, one of the world’s most indebted nations relative to the size
of its economy, has consistently said it will honor its liabilities
and has downplayed any talk of a restructuring. The country has never
defaulted on its government debt, most of which is held by local
banks.
According to central bank Governor Riad Salameh, Lebanon has the money
to repay $1.5 billion of securities maturing at the end of this month.
The next Eurobonds after that come due in March 2020.
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21-OCT-2019 :: We have recently witnessed the "WhatsApp" Revolution in Lebanon
Emerging Markets
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Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and
accelerate the negative feedback loop.
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"The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of spe
Emerging Markets
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The revolutionaries are trying to blockade parliament to prevent the masquerades ignoring the rightful demands of the #revolution. They represent the nation not the so called deputies! #Lebanon @Aboujahjah
Emerging Markets
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Rony Seikaly - Rajeh Yittammar (Revolution Radio Mix) by Rony Seikaly via @SoundCloud
Emerging Markets
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For the first time ever, #Lebanon, no longer allows a transfer of funds abroad, not only via banks but also via @WesternUnion or @MoneyGram The bankruptcy flag is no longer very far @ejmalrai
Emerging Markets
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This Phenomenon could spread like wildfire
Frontier Markets
Sub Saharan Africa
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This is happening right now at the @mdczimbabwe headquarters where the MDC President @nelsonchamisa was meant to address the nation from. @daddyhope
Africa
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This is the REAL Emmerson Mnangagwa Government on display. It has
closed all democratic space & uses violence to enforce its Rule by
Brutality
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#BREAKING Police violently disperse MDC supporters outside party's headquarters in Harare where they were waiting to hear from party leader Nelson Chamisa in a speech dubbed the 'Hope of the Nation Address' @zimlive
Africa
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#BREAKING Police have fired teargas and used truncheons to violently
disperse MDC supporters outside the party's headquarters in Harare
where they were waiting to hear from party leader Nelson Chamisa in a
speech dubbed the 'Hope of the Nation Address'
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21-JAN-2019 :: What is clear to me is that Zimbabwe is at a Tipping Point moment.
Africa
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At the time of the Jasmine Revolution in Tunis the crowds chanted “We
are not afraid, we are not afraid, we are afraid only of God.”
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29-JUL-2019 :: Zimbabwe is a Laboratory Experiment with Inflation last clocking 176%.
Africa
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21-JAN-2019 :: The Mind Game that ZANU-PF played on its citizens has evaporated in a puff of smoke
Africa
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In Dubai, sharing our story and incredible potential with entrepreneurs and investors, I will continue to toil both at home and abroad to put Zimbabwe back on its feet! @edmnangagwa
Africa
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In Dubai, sharing our story and incredible potential with
entrepreneurs and investors, particularly in the crucial sectors of
fuel and power. I will continue to toil both at home and abroad to put
Zimbabwe back on its feet!
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09-SEP-2019 :: Emmerson Mnangagwa who was eulogising Mugabe as a Revolutionary Icon has failed and is frankly as untenable as his erstwhile Mentor.
Africa
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Bank of Zambia Raises Key Interest Rate to Curb Inflation @economics
Africa
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Zambia’s central bank raised its key interest rate for a second time
this year, bucking a global easing trend, in a bid to support its
currency and tame inflation.
The Bank of Zambia increased the rate to 11.5% from 10.25%, Governor
Denny Kalyalya told reporters Wednesday in Lusaka, the capital. That’s
the highest level since May 2017.
Key Insights
The central bank faces a trade-off between stabilizing the kwacha to
help control inflation and boosting an economy that expanded at the
slowest since least the first quarter of 2016 in the three months
through June.
Inflation accelerated to 10.7% in October, the highest level in three
years, as the worst drought in almost four decades in the southwest of
the country caused crop failure.
Kalyalya said while the MPC was mindful of the slowdown in economic
growth, the upside risks to inflation have increased and there is a
need to restore macro-economic stability.
The central bank sees the rate staying above the 8% upper end of its
target range until at least 2021.
The lack of rain also drastically curbed output at the hydropower dams
that Zambia relies on for about 80% of its electricity generation, and
the resultant power cuts that last more than 15 hours a day are
weighing on the economy.
The electricity cuts also mean that many businesses run on generators,
increasing their input costs because the kwacha’s 18% drop against the
dollar this year has pushed up fuel prices.
The nation’s power utility has asked the energy regulator to allow it
to more than double prices, which will add to inflationary pressure.
The Energy Regulation Board said it would announce new energy tariffs
this month
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14-OCT-2019 :: The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia.
Africa
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“Investors have lost faith in government promises to get spending
under control and the government has fallen out with the IMF as well,”
he said. In Zambia, Eurobonds are trading at 60c in the $.
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"keep the tango dancing, as we say. Let's see where it will go. I don't see it going now, but just keep tango dancing with these guys and let's see where it will go." @business
Africa
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During his second day on the stand, Jean Boustani told the federal
jury in Brooklyn, New York, that when a Mozambican demanded a $50
million “success fee” to get approval for a maritime project, he
immediately notified his boss, French-Lebanese billionaire Iskandar
Safa, the co-owner of Privinvest. Safa was appalled, Boustani said.
“Mr. Safa said ‘Jean, look, I’ve never seen this in my life,’”
Boustani said. “He said ‘I hope you will be successful in this, for
the company, for you, but I don’t see this going far with such an
attitude, but look, keep the tango dancing, as we say. Let’s see where
it will go. I don’t see it going now, but just keep tango dancing with
these guys and let’s see where it will go.’”
Boustani denied paying any bribes or kickbacks to either Mozambican
officials or bankers. During the trial, former Credit Suisse bankers
Andrew Pearse and Surjan Singh told jurors that Privinvest paid them
tens of millions of dollars to help arrange loans for three coastal
projects that eventually swelled to $2 billion.
Pearse testified Boustani paid him $45 million.
Pearse testified Ndambi Guebuza, the son of Mozambique’s former
president, collected at least $50 million in illegal payments for
helping introduce Privinvest executives to his father.
But Boustani said that during a personal audience with then-President
Armando Guebuza and his son in early 2013, he told the president a
Mozambican man had asked for a $50 million bribe, stunning the
country’s leader.
“The president was frozen, then he looked at his son,” Boustani recounted.
Then he quoted the president’s response: “Mr. Boustani, you are
talking about big strategic projects. My answer to your question is
simple: nobody, nobody, not me, not any public official in Mozambique
will be allowed to take one penny in order to do their job for this
project. You say no and you come to me and you tell them ‘no.’ I said,
sorry but I had to do it.”
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +8.68% 2019
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.7589
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.0993
Africa
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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +9.12% 2019
Africa
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Nigeria in 2018 Remittances = $30 B FDI =$1.9 B Oil earnings =$35 B By 2025 remittances will surpass oil earnings. @africa_solar
Africa
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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -14.81% 2019
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -14.48% 2019
Africa
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BOB, the Baobab tree. Still standing strong after at least 1200 years here at Mombo Camp in the Okavango Delta. @mpoliza
Africa
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Temperature changes in the Indian Ocean lead to extreme weather events in Australia and east Africa
Africa
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Global heating is “supercharging” an increasingly dangerous climate
mechanism in the Indian Ocean that has played a role in disasters this
year including bushfires in Australia and floods in Africa.
Kenya
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Kenya raises 66 bln shillings from state corporations for budget @ReutersAfrica
Africa
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Kenya’s Treasury has raised 66 billion shillings ($650.89 million) out
of a target of 78 billion in dividends and retained earnings from
state corporations, the acting finance minister said on Wednesday.
Ukur Yatani said state companies had not been remitting their
dividends at the end of every financial year as required by law,
denying domestic reports that the move to take the cash would starve
the banking sector of liquidity.
“These are just surplus funds. Their operational accounts and all
other matters have not been touched,” he told Reuters, adding that the
extra cash would be spent on development projects.
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"No bank wants to finance you any more especially if you have a contract from the government," said one small business owner who spoke on condition of anonymity @ReutersAfrica
Africa
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A second supplier said: “You get disrupted in the middle of (the
contract) ...either because you are not speaking to the right people,
making commitments to the right people, or your payments may just be
delayed.”
George Muiruri, managing director of Leakey’s auctioneers, says
repossessions among government suppliers had increased. “They are
financially stuck,” he said, adding he was dealing with at least one
such case every day.
Central bank governor Patrick Njoroge said in late May that delayed
payments to suppliers, the bulk contracted by the government, made up
10 percent of the total volume of bad loans.
Such loans stood at 12.4 percent of the total in April, the highest
level in more than a decade.
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@KeEquityBank Group's growing earnings from remittances raises its creditworthiness places the institution ahead of its regional competitors @MoodysInvSvc @moneyacademyKE
Africa
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@KeEquityBank Group share price data
Africa
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Market Capitalization: 180,759,023,016
EPS: 5.25
PE: 9.124
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@KeEquityBank Equity will pay $105mn in cash for the 625,354 shares in BCDC in a deal inclusive of dividends, and also acquire an additional 7.6% stake from KfW. @RichEconomics
Africa
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Africa
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.59% 2019
Africa
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -7.68% 2019
Africa
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
Africa
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