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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 14th of August 2020
 


$GOLD is very likely in the process now of building the continuation pattern that takes it to $2300+ later this year @AdamMancini4 1953.00 [Buy for a return to $2,000+ next week]
Commodities


Since August 2018, Gold has been in a cycle where it consolidates for a few months, rallies 20%, then repeats.We just got the rally, now consolidate then up again



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Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt attempted to corner the world silver markets in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at one stage holding the rights to more than half of the world's deliverable silver.
World Of Finance


During the Hunts' accumulation of the precious metal, silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980.

Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later, much of the fall occurring on a single day now known as Silver Thursday, due to changes made to exchange rules regarding the purchase of commodities on margin.

“Hunt had a paranoid world view and it made sense to him to amass silver and hang on to it.”

Most traders buy and sell paper. The actual stuff represented by that paper is delivered to someone else. Hunt wanted the silver.

He chartered three 707 jet aircraft to haul the metal to warehouses in Switzerland and hired a dozen sharpshooting cowboys to provide security, according to Knight.

When he began buying silver with his brothers in 1973, it cost $2 an ounce and a big consumer was Eastman Kodak to make film.

Before the Hunts were through, seven years later, they’d stockpiled more than 200 million ounces, the price was soaring past $45 an ounce and regulators were preparing to take measures to make sure nothing like what Nelson Bunker Hunt had done would ever happen again.

“They broke the ascent by basically outlawing the buying of silver,” said Knight, who blogs at slopeofhope.com.

“Only liquidation orders would be accepted. It’s almost criminal what they did.”

On March 27, 1980 — what came to be known as “silver Thursday” — Comex asked Bache Group, the Hunts’ broker, for $134 million.

The three Hunt brothers had $4.5 billion in silver holdings, $3.5 billion of it profit, Knight said. But they didn’t have $134 million.

A $180 million judgment against them pushed the Hunts into bankruptcy.

All Bunker Hunt had left from his billions were a few million, a stable of racehorses and a $90 million tax bill to be paid over a 15-year period, Knight said.

Conclusions

Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell

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27-JAN-2020 :: “But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola.''
World Of Finance

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

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21 OCT 19 :: “The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Law & Politics


“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

Antonio Gramsci wrote, “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. now is the time of monsters.”


Ryszard Kapuściński wrote:-

“Revolution must be distinguished from revolt, coup d’état, palace takeover. A coup or a palace takeover may be planned, but a revolution never. Its outbreak, the hour of that outbreak, takes everyone, even those who have been striving for it, unawares. They stand amazed at the spontaneity that appears suddenly and destroys everything in its path. It demolishes so ruthlessly that in the end, it may annihilate the ideals that called it into being.”

This is a Revolution and it is a Global Phenomenon.

Ryszard Kapucinski also said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not reassemble, we say the revolution is over.”


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The PLA has conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Straits showing PLA is capable of launching a full scale attack and capturing the island within hours, It’s a clear warning to Taiwan independence. @HuXijin_GT
Law & Politics

The PLA has conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Straits and at its northern and southern ends, showing PLA is capable of launching a full scale attack and capturing the island within hours, leaving US military no time to react. It’s a clear warning to Taiwan independence.

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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
Law & Politics

It has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al. Neither Side have an ‘’Off Ramp’’ and the US Electoral Cycle and the ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.

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"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus
Misc.




First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. 

In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism.



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Might SARS‐CoV‐2 Have Arisen via Serial Passage through an Animal Host or Cell Culture? Via ⁦@still_a_nerd @Harvard2H
Misc.


The practice of serial passage mimics a natural zoonotic jump, and offers explanations for SARS‐CoV‐2's distinctive spike‐protein region and its unexpectedly high affinity for angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE2), as well as the notable polybasic furin cleavage site within it.

To date, the origins of SARS‐CoV‐2 remain in doubt, and its behavior enigmatic: It has been reported that “the virus acts like no microbe humanity has ever seen.”

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In the last two weeks, the cumulative number of confirmed #COVID19 deaths per million people has grown by: @redouad
Misc.



• 82% in Oceania

• 30% in Africa

• 22% in Asia

• 19% in South America

• 13% in North America

• 2% in Europe

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#COVID19 Worldwide, with focus on the EU Trajectories in the Daily tests vs Daily cases plane, with positive rate @Marco_Piani
Misc.



The positive rate of tests is an informative indicator of whether a country "has a grip" on the pandemic, that is, both testing enough to capture a large proportion of infections, & in a situation where infections are not growing: 

if the positive rate is growing, that's a telltale sign that real infections are also growing, & you may not be registering more cases just because you are testing more


The UK has just reinstated...


a quarantine for people coming from some European countries which are experiencing a growth in cases and in postive rate, including France and Netherlands (the quarantine was already in place for Spain).

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1802

Dollar Index 93.298

Japan Yen 106.77

Swiss Franc 0.9107

Pound 1.3068

Aussie 0.7150

India Rupee 74.8375

South Korea Won 1184.95

Brazil Real 5.3682

Egypt Pound 15.9306

South Africa Rand 17.4751

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By This Measure, China’s Yuan Is Best-Placed Since 2012 Rally @BloombergAsia @SriniSivabalan
World Currencies



The onshore currency’s 50-day moving average has fallen below its 200-day mean, completing the so-called golden cross pattern that some analysts interpret as a sign that a rally will continue. 

While such crossovers happen frequently, this is the first time in eight years that both moving averages are trending down, a phenomenon some market watchers say signals a true golden cross.

The dollar is heading for a fifth month of losses. Meanwhile, China’s success in restarting the economy after the pandemic, the widening of its current-account surplus, its relative yields over dollar assets and foreign inflows are all supportive of further gains for the yuan.


In addition to the golden cross pattern, the currency has broken through a trend line that’s limited its gains since March 2019. 

The line has now become a support for the Chinese currency -- potentially limiting any losses.

Fiona Lim, a senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Berhad in Singapore, predicts a stronger yuan and suggests investors look to the trend in the 100-day mean, now that the 50-day and 200-day averages have already completed a cross.

“A decisive break below could see USD/CNH trade lower towards 6.85 levels,” she wrote.

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Workers based in the GCC account for close to 40% of all remittances received in dollar terms. @econchart
World Of Finance

Workers based in the GCC send money to home countries in Africa and Asia. India, China, Mexico, the Philippines, Egypt, and Nigeria account for close to 40% of all remittances received in dollar terms. @econchart

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India added 942 deaths from the novel coronavirus in the past 24 hours, topping the U.K. with a total of 47,033 fatalities. Its total number of confirmed cases, almost 2.4 million, is the third largest in the world. @business
Misc.

India added 942 deaths from the novel coronavirus in the past 24 hours, topping the U.K. with a total of 47,033 fatalities. Now India is only behind the U.S., Brazil and Mexico in the overall number of deaths. Its total number of confirmed cases, almost 2.4 million, is the third largest in the world.

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The industrial recovery in EM is very uneven. @SergiLanauIIF
Emerging Markets

The industrial recovery in EM is very uneven. China, Taiwan, Malaysia almost back to normal. A few major EMs like South Africa, India, and Mexico still show very depressed levels of industrial output months after the initial shock hit.

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Africa marks six months of COVID-19 @WHOAFRO
Africa

 


Brazzaville - Africa marks six months on 14 August since COVID-19 was first detected on the continent. 

While the virus has raced through many other regions of the world, the pandemic’s evolution on the African continent has been different.

Preliminary analysis by the World Health Organization (WHO) finds that an exponential surge in cases which peak about two to three weeks later is not occurring in Africa. 

Instead, many countries are experiencing a gradual rise in COVID-19 cases and it is difficult to discern a specific peak. Transmission patterns also differ between countries, but more importantly within countries.

At the onset, COVID-19 mainly affected capital cities. However, the virus is now moving from high-density urban areas to informal settlements and then onward to rural areas that have a lower population density.

“In Africa, curbing COVID-19 is a marathon and not a sprint,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa. 

“We are observing multiple local outbreaks each with their own infection patterns and peaks. It is by bolstering the response at the community level that we will win this race. The COVID-19 response must be integrated into the fabric of every health district.”

“Areas of high transmission, as well as localities with relatively fewer infections both, deserve attention. In short, we must be strong on all fronts.”

 

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Coronavirus deaths in select Africa countries. @jmlukens
Africa

#SouthAfrica 11,010 #COVID19 deaths most in #Africa followed by #Algeria (1,333), #Nigeria (956), & #Morocco (556). #Ethiopia, #Libya, & Morocco total deaths growing >3.4% per day on average. #Algeria death rate is 5.9%.

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences. #COVID19
Misc.


―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.

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Ethiopia has detained more than 9,000 people after deadly clashes last month, the state-run human rights commission told @Reuters
Africa

“The government arrests people and then looks for evidence,” said Fisseha. “This is in line with previous experience.”

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases
Africa


The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa



We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. 

Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster then BOOM!


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Bond Investors Stranded in Nigeria Risk Taking 100% Losses @markets
Africa


Foreign investors tempted into buying Nigerian debt paying interest of 13% a year ago are unable to move their cash out of the country.

Worse still, the rate that investors now earn for lending money to the government by purchasing 12-month Treasury bills has dropped to a 10-year low of 3.2%. 

On top of that, the local currency has twice been devalued against the dollar this year, risking losses when the capital is repatriated.

With their cash stranded, funds have few choices but to park in short-term debt. 

They’re waiting for the central bank to resume foreign-exchange sales that were halted in mid-March after lower oil prices dried up dollar supplies. 

The economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic only exacerbated the situation.

“Some people are either stuck in the queue or they have now decided to reinvest some of the money,” said Ayodele Salami, chief investment officer at Duet Group, which has an Africa focused fund with investments in Nigeria. 

“There’s no level of returns that can compensate you for that risk -- because the risk you are carrying is a 100% loss.”

Holders of Nigerian bonds and equities may have as much as $2.5 billion trapped in the country, Simon Kitchen, an analyst with EFG Hermes, said in a note to investors last week.

Nigeria’s central bank is trying to hold the level of the naira stable without running down its foreign-exchange reserves, currently around $35.6 billion, to below $30 billion

A drop of about 16% in oil prices over the 12 months has cut the biggest source of Nigeria’s foreign-exchange earnings.


The regulator introduced capital controls and restrictions on imports in 2015, when it pegged the naira at between 197-199 per dollar. 

The official exchange rate was lowered to 379 last week from 360 in March and 307 in 2019.

“We’ve been investing across African markets for about 15 years,” Salami of Duet Group said. “And in 15 years, Nigeria is the only place where twice in less than five years you have a lockdown or a complete freeze of the foreign-exchange market.”


Average yields on Treasury bills that are sold at regular auctions have declined to 1.9%, near the lowest on record, while rates on central bank paper, otherwise known as OMOs, have declined to about 4% across the curve. OMOs used to trade in the high double digits.


A spokesman for Nigeria’s central bank didn’t answer two calls to his mobile phone.

‘Be Patient’

“There’s no need for anybody to worry as long as you allow us to deal with this issue in an orderly fashion,” central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele said on June 24. “It’s a guarantee, you will get paid, but be patient.”


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9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
World Of Finance


This week Moody’s Investor Services downgraded Nigeria to negative and we learnt that Foreign Investors are propping up the Naira to the tune of NGN5.8 trillion ($16 billion) via short-term certificates. 

Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit and the currency will collapse just like its collapsing in Lusaka as we speak. 

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CFC Stanbic Holdings reports HY 2020 Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment



Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           73.50

Total Shares Issued:          395321638.00

Market Capitalization:        29,056,140,393

EPS:             16.14

PE:                 4.554

  

Stanbic Holdings PLC reports HY 2020 Earnings 

HY Total Assets 383.504b versus 313.309b

HY Total Income 11.264258b versus 12.833431b

HY Income after Impairment charges 9.281953b versus 11.602511b

HY Profit before Tax 4.130700b versus 5.560718b

HY Profit after Tax 2.583005b versus 4.063028b  

HY EPS 6.46 versus 10.28 

No Interim Dividend 

-12.0% y-o-y decline in total income to KES 10.7 BN and 

+83.6% y-o-y upsurge in loan loss provision expense to KES 1.7 BN. 

Net interest income declined 5.9% y-o-y to KES 6.0 BN 

Non-funded income declined 18.8% y-o-y to KES 4.7 BN, 

Operating expenses (less loan loss provisions) declined 14.8% y-o-y to KES 5.0 BN mainly on the back of a 4.6% y-o-y decline in staff costs to KES 2.7 BN and a 32.6% y-o-y decline in other expenses to KES 1.6 BN. 

Pre-provision operating profit declined 9.5% y-o-y to KES 5.7 BN. Loan loss provision expense saw an 83.6% y-o-y increase to KES 1.7 BN. As a result, profit before tax dropped 25.3% y-o-y to KES 4.0 BN.

Customer loans and advances declined 0.6% y-o-y to KES 161.0 BN whereas investment securities saw a 14.1% y-o-y decline to KES 40.8 BN. 

customer deposits saw a 23.0% y-o-y increase to KES 252.2 BN 

On a trailing basis, Stanbic Bank is trading at a P/E ratio of 6.2x, against an industry median of 4.8x, and a P/B of 0.8x against an industry median of 0.7x. 

ROE stands at 12.1% whereas ROA stands at 1.4%. 

Conclusions

resilient attractive on price reverses. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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