|Friday 21st of February 2020
2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.
The Industrially Necessary Doctor &@DrTedros The truth is that only now-TWO MONTHS INTO THE EPIDEMIC-is @WHO sending a "team" to "start investigating" the virus. &@EpsilonTheory
Law & Politics
The truth is that WHO has done nothing more than parrot the official
Chinese Communist Party line since the day the world learned of
The truth is that only now – TWO MONTHS INTO THE EPIDEMIC – is WHO
sending a “team” to “start investigating” the virus.
To be sure, WHO’s Director General, Dr. Tedros, has been to China
several times since the disease broke out, glad-handing (again,
literally) President Xi and all the other CCP mandarins.
Tedros said there was no need for measures that “unnecessarily
interfere with international travel and trade,” and he specifically
said that stopping flights and restricting Chinese travel abroad was
“counter-productive” to fighting the global spread of the virus.
This is the Director General of the World Health Organization. On February 4th.
“We call on all countries to implement decisions that are
evidence-based and consistent,” said Tedros. Roger that.
There’s just one problem.
The “evidence” here – taken without adjustment or question from the
CCP – was a baldfaced lie.
And everyone at WHO knew it.
How do I know that everyone at WHO knew that the official Chinese
numbers were a crock on Feb. 4?
Because WHO-sponsored doctors in Hong Kong published independent
studies on Jan. 31 showing that the official Chinese numbers were a
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive
number for 2019-nCoV was 2.68 (95% CrI 2.47–2.86) and that 75,815
individuals (95% CrI 37,304–130,330) have been infected in Wuhan as of
Jan 25, 2020.
Will this disease spread farther and faster … will more people DIE …
because WHO Director General Tedros recommended as best practice on
February 4th that flights and visa issuance in and out of China
continue without significant disruption?
Yes. I think so.
And what is this “fake news”?
Fake news is now defined as anything that disputes WHO data, which
means that fake news is now defined as anything that disputes the
official China party line.
Where possible, China wants to criminalize any speech … any social
media … that does not follow the official party line. Where it’s not
possible to criminalize that speech, China wants to ban it through the
cooperative censorship of global tech and media platforms.
Where it’s not possible to ban that speech, China wants to shame it
into the shadows by getting us to reject it as “fake news”.
But what is happening at the most senior levels of the World Health
Organization is not just a disgrace. It is not just a humiliation for
the people who are doing good and important work.
It is a betrayal of the entire world.
@WorldBank pandemic bond under pressure as coronavirus spreads @WKZONews
Law & Politics
A World Bank bond designed to deliver funding to help the world's
poorest countries to tackle fast-spreading diseases has lost half its
value as the coronavirus outbreak in China has fanned fears that
investors could face hefty losses.
After the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreak that ravaged Sierra Leone, Guinea
and Liberia and killed at least 11,300 people, the World Bank launched
bond and insurance instruments under its Pandemic Emergency Financing
umbrella in 2017 to establish a mechanism that would speedily deploy
funds where needed.
However, the World Bank's two so-called pandemic bonds came under
scrutiny after the second-worst Ebola outbreak on record.
The 2018 epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo raged for about
a year and killed more than 2,000 people, but it failed to trigger the
release of funds to help affected countries.
The bonds, issued by the World Bank's International Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), offer investors high coupons in
return for the risk of having to forgo some or all their money in the
event of pandemic outbreaks of a number of infectious diseases, with
the funds channeled instead to countries in need of aid.
With the coronavirus outbreak having infected more than 74,000 people
and claimed more than 2,000 lives, prices for the IBRD pandemic bond
with the highest investment risk - the Class B notes - have come under
Losses to investors depend on the number of deaths and geographical
spread. In the most extreme case, a global outbreak - defined as more
than 2,500 deaths across more than eight countries with a certain
number of fatalities in each country - will wipe out the bondholder's
Offer prices quoted by one broker have slipped as low as 45 cents in
the dollar, while another is quoting 62.5 cents, market sources said.
In the midst of the 2018 Ebola outbreak the bond traded at a little
more than 70 cents.
"The market is clearly starting to price in a chance that the tranche
most at risk could be affected," said an investor who holds some of
the World Bank's pandemic debt.
"We all get the feeling that epidemics have become more and more
frequent - we had SARS and Ebola and swine flu all within a short
space of time."
The bonds issued by the IBRD are not only aimed at providing relief
for outbreaks of coronavirus or Ebola, but also for pandemics caused
by infectious diseases such as Marburg, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic
fever or Lassa fever.
Both of the bonds are often closely held and largely illiquid. Filings
show that the riskiest of the two , maturing on June 15, is held by
asset managers including Baillie Gifford, Amundi and Oppenheimer.
The second of the bonds - a $225 million issue - is also exposed to a
coronavirus outbreak but considered less at risk because its different
trigger criteria means bondholders face a loss of 16.7%.
For all the good intentions and the prospect that a payout to poor
countries might be on the cards, the bonds remain under fire for
failing to deliver sufficient or timely aid.
One point of contention is the length of time before a payout is
triggered. In the case of a coronavirus outbreak for the Class B
notes, this is 84 days from when the World Health Organization (WHO)
publishes its first "situation report". In the current outbreak, that
would be in mid-April.
Think tanks and some policymakers say the focus should be on shoring
up healthcare systems and early detection facilities in vulnerable
parts of the world that are already overburdened with cases of Ebola,
measles, malaria and other deadly diseases.
"The money for these bonds could have been better spent in providing
the WHO with funds or help strengthen healthcare provisions in poor
countries at risk," said Bodo Ellmers, director of sustainable
development finance at Global Policy Forum, an independent policy
"It was an ideology-driven idea to get the private sector involved in
humanitarian and emergency finance - and I think we have to say this
The World Bank said that if the activation criteria for the
instruments were to be met, funding would be triggered to support
Looted 18th Century Crown Is Returned to Ethiopia @AP via @business
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (AP) -- A rare and looted crown from the 18th
century was returned to Ethiopia on Thursday after it was discovered
in the Netherlands two decades ago.
The Dutch government facilitated the handover “with the belief that it
has a duty to restitute this important artifact back to Ethiopia,” the
office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said, sharing photos of a smiling
Abiy holding the ceremonial crown.
“This is a historic day for us,” Hirut Kassaw, Ethiopia's minister for
culture and tourism, told The Associated Press.
The religious crown went missing in 1993 and was discovered in
Rotterdam in October. “I still don’t know how this crown and the other
items were looted and taken out of Ethiopia,” the culture minister
said, adding that several other items were stolen including a cross.
Ethiopia, like many African nations, has been outspoken about seeing
artifacts returned home from museums and private owners around the
world. Last year the National Army Museum in Britain said it would
return two locks of hair from the widely revered Ethiopian Emperor
The Dutch government in a statement Thursday said the crown was the
property of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church. It said the crown went
missing from the Holy Trinity Church in the village of Cheleqot.
The Dutch minister for foreign trade, Sigrid Kaag, attended the
“We’re honored and delighted to have been able to facilitate the
rightful return,” Kaag said.
Lesotho Premier to Quit Amid Probe into Ex-Spouse's Murder @politics
Lesotho Prime Minister Thomas Thabane announced he will resign by the
end of July, yielding to pressure from his ruling party to quit after
his current wife was charged with murdering his ex-spouse.
Thabane offered to leave office earlier if “all the requisite
preparations for my retirement are completed,” he said in a speech
Thursday in the capital, Maseru.
Maesaiah Thabane was indicted Feb. 5 for allegedly killing Lipolelo
Thabane. She wasn’t asked to plead in the case and is due to appear
again next month. The killing took place two days before Thabane was
inaugurated as premier in June 2017.
The premier himself may be charged in the case, Reuters reported,
citing Deputy Police Commissioner Paseka Mokete.
Lesotho, a nation of about 3 million people that’s encircled by South
Africa, has been riven by political turbulence and military coups
Opposition riots in 1998 prompted its neighbor to deploy troops to
restore order. In 2014, Thabane temporarily fled the country after
accusing the military of overthrowing him.
The head of the army was shot dead three years later, leading to the
deployment of troops from neighboring countries.
Thabane’s departure is unlikely bring an end to political instability
and the odds are rising that the military could step in once again,
Gary van Staden, an analyst with NKC African Economics, said last
While such an intervention would be problematic for other countries in
the region that have sought to maintain civilian rule, it may be
welcomed by citizens who’ve tired of political stalemates, infighting,
frequent elections and unstable coalitions, he said.
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study @TheLancet #COVID19
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from
China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already
occurred in 12 countries after case importation.
In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and
control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health
Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African
countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.
We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in
the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the
risk of importation per country.
We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases
with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health
Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability,
using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index
Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and
South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks.
Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola,
Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high
All continents reported confirmed cases of COVID-19. Africa confirmed
its first case in Egypt on Feb 14, 2020.
China is Africa's leading commercial partner; thus, there are large
travel volumes through which severe acute respiratory syndrome
coronavirus 2 could reach the continent
Flight bans implemented by some African airline companies serving
China20 might alter future risk through a different repartition of the
flow of travel; however, these bans are not expected to prevent
Not all connections between Africa and China have been cut—the main
transporters continue to fly between the two (eg, Ethiopian Airlines,
the largest carrier in Africa, operating almost half of the flights
from Africa to China,21 together with all Chinese airline companies,
Algeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Nigeria were part of the 13 top
priority countries identified by WHO on the basis of their direct
links and volume of travel to China.4 Egypt, which we estimated to be
at highest risk, was not part of that list, although Cairo was
identified as the African airport with the highest passenger volume
from the affected areas.9 Few other discrepancies were observed
(Morocco and Angola were estimated to be at moderate risk, but did not
appear in WHO's 13 top priority list) that might be explained by
different risk estimation approaches. In our assessment, we accounted
for the distribution of incidence within China and the volume of
travel from China with the passenger network. This assessment strongly
affects the spatial pattern in the risk of importation. In addition,
we considered full origin–destination itineraries as opposed to direct
flights only. Yet our data do not allow us to distinguish between
travel for tourism or business, or across nationalities of passengers.
Contrary to Europe, where most cases among initial importations were
Chinese tourists travelling for holiday, cases in Africa might be more
likely to be business than travel related, given the strong commercial
links between African countries and China.
Concerns are rising about the virus's potential to circulate undetected in Africa and Asia @nature
The continent has gone from having only two labs with the capacity to
confirm the virus, one in Senegal and one in South Africa, to now
having at least 8, according to the WHO.
Three of the newly added labs are in Nigeria, says Chikwe Ihekweazu,
the director general of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
Over the weekend, two people who had recently returned from China with
suspected infections tested negative, he says.
Ihekweazu says the worst-case scenario for Nigeria will be if an
infected person goes undetected and begins to infect others. “That is
really what keeps me up at night,” he says.
#Coronovirus : @BillGates warns of 10 million deaths as virus spreads to Africa @Telegraph #COVID19
Bill Gates has warned that coronavirus in Africa could overwhelm
health services and trigger a pandemic which could cause 10 million
The Microsoft founder and global health pioneer was speaking at the
AAAS meeting in Seattle just hours before the first case was confirmed
in Cairo, Egypt.
There are now fears that the disease could spread to sub-Saharan
Africa where it could spark an uncontrollable outbreak, with health
services unable to monitor or control the virus.
Mr Gates said: “I wanted to talk about a special topic, which is this
recent coronavirus epidemic.
“This is a huge challenge, we’ve always known the potential for an
naturally caused, or intentionally caused, pandemic is one if the few
things that could disrupt health systems and economies and cause more
than 10 million excess deaths.
“This could be particularly if it spreads in areas like sub-Saharan
Africa and some Asia, it could be very very dramatic.
“We’re doing the constant science to provide the tools to do the
diagnosis to provide vaccines, to provide therapeutics and hopefully
contain this epidemic, but it’s potentially a very bad situation.”
Mr Gates said coronovirus was more worrying than Ebola because
although the death rate is not as high, it spreads far faster.
“Ebola is terrible, but it’s not like a lightning flu,” he said.
“This coronavirus has a lot of similarities to a very bad flu, in
terms of the death rate, so far more like the 1957 flu outbreak.
”But this is way worse than a typical seasonal flu and of course we
have no immunity.
“Will this get into Africa or not and if so, will those health systems
“If you look at Ebola, most of the excess deaths were caused because
the health service shut down. It’s not just the direct effect, it’s
also the panic, the overload, and the things that effect health
workers, because you’re already at very limited capacity.
“This disease, if it’s in Africa it’s more dramatic than if it’s in
China, even though I’m not trying to minimise what’s going on in China
in any way.”
About one in five cigarettes smoked in Uganda is counterfeit, according to British American Tobacco Plc's local unit. @business
The trade in illicit cigarettes has soared since about a decade ago,
when only one in 10 cigarettes were counterfeit, Managing Director
Mathu Kiunjuri said in the capital, Kampala.
That has “robbed” the government of at least 30 billion shillings
($8.2 million) of revenue annually.
Some of the cigarettes are marked made in South Sudan, Kenya or
Uganda, while many do not show origins, he said.
BAT Uganda expects a fifth consecutive year of profit growth in 2020
after it exited leaf growing in 2014, he said.
Net income climbed 14% to 15.7 billion shillings in 2019, driven by a
“revamped portfolio and distribution efficiencies,” he said. The
company announced a 320-shilling dividend per share.
@SafaricomPLC to consider @Huawei as supplier for 5G network @Reuters
Kenya’s biggest telecoms operator Safaricom will consider awarding a
contract to China’s Huawei as it rolls out its fifth generation (5G)
network this year, its acting chief executive said on Wednesday.
The United States government has been urging its European allies and
others not to use Huawei, one of Safaricom’s network vendors along
with Nokia, citing security concerns.
“We will use Huawei in 5G ... What will we do in terms of the American
statements about not using Huawei? We don’t have that situation in
Africa,” Acting CEO Michael Joseph said.
Involving Huawei in Safaricom’s 5G network could hamper talks on a
free trade agreement between the United States and Kenya, which were
announced this month, analysts said.
“They would have to figure a way of working it out just the same way
that the UK is trying to figure it out,” said Eric Musau of Standard
Investment Bank in Nairobi, after Britain said Huawei could have only
a limited role in its 5G network.
Joseph said Safaricom would follow guidelines from its two main
shareholders, South Africa’s Vodacom and Britain’s Vodafone.
“There is demand for more and more bandwidth, more and more speed,” he
said, adding that 5G services network would first be offered to
customers in major cities where demand was highest.
Separately, Safaricom said it planned to expand into Ethiopia, which
has promised to open up the state-run telecoms industry. Two operating
licences are expected to be offered.
Joseph said Safaricom was putting together a consortium for its bid,
The group would include Vodacom, Vodafone, financial capital investors
and other unnamed operators, he added.
Joseph, who has been interim CEO since July, will hand over to
full-time appointment Peter Ndegwa on April 1.
@SanlamKenya reports FY PBT 2019 550.086m Earnings
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 18.45
Total Shares Issued: 144000000.00
Market Capitalization: 2,656,800,000
Sanlam Kenya PLC FY 2019 results through 31st December 2019 vs. 31st
FY Gross written premium income 6.991588b vs. 6.345825b +10.176%
FY Outward reinsurance premium [1.345042b] vs. [974.017m] +38.092%
FY Net written premium 5.646546b vs. 5.371808b +5.1145
FY Investment income 2.350289b vs. 2.183767b +7.625%
FY Fair value gains/ [losses] 422.177m vs. [1.983581b] +121.284%
FY Impairment of financial assets 2.624m vs. [12.795m] +120.508%
FY Other operating revenue 152.379m vs. 86.214m +76.745%
FY Total income 8.899079b vs. 5.913423b +50.486%
FY Gross benefits and claims paid [5.532435b] vs. [5.544822b] -0.223%
FY Net change in investment and contract liabilities 262.282m vs.
FY Net claims and policyholder benefits [4.836423b] vs. [5.124182b] -5.616%
FY Fees and commissions expense [993.691m] vs. [715.134m] +38.952%
FY Other operating and administrative expenses [2.040589b] vs.
FY Total benefits, claims and other expenses [8.348993b] vs. [8.042923b] +3.805%
FY Profit/ [loss] before tax 550.086m vs. [2.129186b] +125.836%
FY Income tax [expense]/ credit [435.687m] vs. 149.760m -390.923%
FY Profit/ [loss] for the year after tax 114.399m vs. [1.979426b] +105.779%
FY Profit/ [loss] attributable to equity holders of the parent
113.334m vs. [2.017061b] +105.619%
EPS (Basic & diluted) 0.79 vs. [14.01] +105.639%
Total capital and reserves 1.735022b vs. 1.587038b+9.325%
Total assets 29.032606b vs. 29.101630b -0.237%
Cash resources at the end of the year 1.195292b vs. 2.679107b -55.385%
Financial performance 2019
In 2019, the Group reported an improvement in operating results,
posting a pre-tax profit of Kes 550 million compared to a prior year's
loss before tax of Kshs. 2.1 billion.
The profit after tax attributable to the shareholders grew to Kshs.114
million compared to a prior year's loss after tax of Kshs.1.98
Total Income at Kshs. 8.9 billion was a 50% improvement compared to
the previous year's, while net benefits, claims and expenses increased
Gross premium income improved by 10% as a result of growth in the
short-term insurance business, while Investment performance improved
to Kshs. 2.7 billion compared to Kshs.187 million that included the
impact of impaired assets in 2019.
The improved performance reflects progress made by the Group's
Long term insurance business reported a profit after tax of Kshs. 636
million compared to a prior year's loss after tax of Kshs. 627
million, while the short-term insurance business delivered a 30%
growth in gross written premiums.
Total capital and reserves improved by 9% to Kshs.1.74 billion.
The business retains a positive outlook for the year 2020. Revenue and
earnings from the Group's insurance business are expected to improve
while investment return is expected to reflect positive results from
Improved asset management.
The Group will continue investing in its customer value proposition
through various product and process innovations.
The Board of Directors will not be recommending the payment of
dividends for the year ended 31 December 2019 (2018: Nil) at the
forthcoming Annual General Meeting scheduled for Thursday 7th May
The Group Statement of Financial Position, Comprehensive Income,
Statement of Changes In Equity and Abridged Cashflow Statement are an
extract of the Group's Financial Statements as audited by
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and have received an unqualified opinion
dated 19th February 2020.
The financial statements below were approved by the Group's Board of
Directors on 19th February 2020 and signed on its behalf by;
Turned it around in 2019