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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 25th of February 2020
 
Afternoon,
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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Monday's selloff is right up there with some of the worst days in the last 10 years @DavidInglesTV
Africa


Purple: Virus Monday
Blue: Volmageddon
Green: Brexit referendum
Yellow: Yuan devaluation
Cyan: Fed tapering tantrum
Red: European debt crisis

Home Thoughts

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Taj Mahal from Views of India photography of Raja Deen Dayal, 1887 image at @ROMtoronto @kamlesm
Africa


किस बात का जुर्माना है, ये कैसा शुल्क है? यकीं नही होता, क्या ये मेरा
मुल्क है?  ये कहाँ आ गए हम ....@ShashiTharoor
https://twitter.com/ShashiTharoor/status/1232010205363195904

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They are born, put in a box; they study by ticking boxes; they go to what is called "work" in a box, they talk about thinking "outside the box" #COVID19 #coronavirus #2019nCoV
Law & Politics


They are born, put in a box; they go home to live in a box; they study
by ticking boxes; they go to what is called “work” in a box, where
they sit in their cubicle box; they drive to the grocery store in a
box to buy food in a box they talk about thinking “outside the box”;
and when they die they are put in a box.

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Doctors and the #WHO don't understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication.
Law & Politics


When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today
~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach
yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam

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The number of fintwits who shout alarmist at anyone preparing for a high severity/uncertainty event with low but probably increasing probability" types is staggering. @WRGuinn
Law & Politics


The number of fintwits who hold themselves out simultaneously as
"think in bets / think probabilistically" types AND "shout alarmist at
anyone preparing for a high severity/uncertainty event with low but
probably increasing probability" types is staggering.

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When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. @nntaleb
Law & Politics


It's a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, "rationality",
subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it.

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Sharp fall in coronavirus cases undermined by questionable data @FinancialTimes
Law & Politics


As President Xi Jinping vows to restart China’s economy, a marked
slowdown in reported new coronavirus cases is helping his cause.
On Monday, Chinese health authorities reported only 11 new cases
outside of Hubei, the central province where the virus originated.
Over the past two weeks, the number of new confirmed cases has dropped
by more than 80 per cent.
China’s count has been swung by changes to how individuals are
officially diagnosed, leaving experts concerned over their ability to
draw conclusions from the figures.
“We don’t know whether the case numbers tell us about the real trend
in incidents or are just a result of testing practices,” said Benjamin
Cowling, head of epidemiology at Hong Kong University.
In the space of a week in mid-February, China’s government switched to
a broader measure of diagnosis and then rolled it back again.
Many foreign epidemiologists, as well as doctors in China, argued that
the broader approach was necessary, as the virus overwhelmed local
capacity to conduct diagnostic laboratory tests.
So China’s National Health Commission instructed Hubei to start
reporting “clinically diagnosed cases” — those diagnosed with viral
pneumonia through a CT lung scan.
The new category was an addition to “confirmed cases”, whereby
evidence of the virus was found with a nucleic acid lab test kit, and
“suspected cases”.
All other provinces continued to report only confirmed and suspected
cases. The result was that on February 13, Hubei reported a surge of
more than 14,000 new cases — more than 10 times the average number
reported over previous days.
“It made a lot of sense for Hubei to switch to this ‘probable’ case
definition,” said Prof Cowling. “These tests are difficult, the
reagents [used in lab tests] are expensive and not every hospital can
do it.”
But the change was revoked by the NHC after less than a week, leading
to a sudden decline in Hubei’s infection numbers on February 20.
At a press conference that day, an NHC expert explained that Hubei’s
testing capacity had “hugely improved” and that “nucleic acid tests
were no longer a problem”.
Sceptics point out that the shift in numbers has come after Mr Xi took
a more prominent role in the “war” against the disease and flagged the
importance of restarting the world’s second-largest economy.
The fallout from the virus has taken a heavy toll, with factories
across the country prevented from reopening and workers kept away from
manufacturing sites.
This has led some experts to question whether the count has become
subject to political influence.
“Over the last week the virus has become politicised, with Xi Jinping
stepping back centre stage,” said Rodney Jones, a veteran Asia watcher
at Wigram Capital Advisors. “The dilemma for local governments is that
high infection rates would now be seen as directly undermining Xi.”
Bruce Aylward, head of the World Health Organization’s foreign
experts’ mission to China, acknowledged questions had been raised over
the statistics.
But, speaking on Monday at a press conference organised by the NHC, he
added: “The decline that we see is real.”
Neil Ferguson, professor of epidemiology at Imperial College London,
said he stood by his initial estimate that only 1 in 10 infections in
China had been detected.
But he added that cases were likely to have declined as a result of
the large-scale shutdown of people and businesses.
The view that China’s lockdown has had an impact was shared by a virus
researcher in Beijing, who wished to remain anonymous.
“Hubei has been doing a blanket search and quarantine of all suspected
infected cases, which possibly reduced the transmission rate,” the
person said.
As the overall trend points towards a decline, there remain concerns
about potential under-reporting outside Hubei.
Medical experts in southern Guangdong, the hardest-hit province after
Hubei, said official figures there were likely to be underestimates.
According to one officer at Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease
Control and Prevention, who asked not to be identified, some cases had
gone undetected because local authorities could not fully track
migrant workers who had returned from Hubei. He also suspected that
the incubation period was probably longer than the current 14-day
standard — meaning people who tested negative initially might become
ill later. Two hospital staff in the Guangdong city of Shenzhen also
said that they were seeing more virus cases than were being officially
reported.
It is not just China under scrutiny. There are concerns that Iran has
under-reported the spread of the virus within its borders.
Iran reported 61 infections and 12 deaths on Monday, an almost 20 per
cent fatality rate compared to about 3 per cent in China, implying
that dozens if not hundreds of other cases there have gone undetected.
Jianghu Dong, a biostatistics expert at the University of Nebraska
Medical Center, said the virus epidemic has been “a big lesson for our
government” in China. He added: “We really hope we can set up a
transparent [testing and reporting] system.”

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16-FEB-2020 : #COVID19 #coronavirus #2019nCoV
Law & Politics


Let me tell you, world,
I—do—not—believe!
If a thousand challengers lie beneath your feet,
Count me as number thousand and one.

I don't believe the sky is blue;
I don't believe in thunder's echoes;
I don't believe that dreams are false;
I don't believe that death has no revenge.

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More "glitched" official statistical figures of #WuhanCoronavirus from #China - @WBYeats1865
Law & Politics


Hubei Province: 203 new confirmed case;
Wuhan (capital of Hubei Province): 406 new confirmed cases.
ZERO new confirmed cases in ALL other cities in Hubei Province.
Unbelievable.

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It should be zero (or very close to it). And if it is not close to zero, it underscores how statistics from China are made up. @biancoresearch
Law & Politics


Actually, it an insult to common sense that a shutdown country should
see its PMI merely downtick from 50 to 47.

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US Biowarfare Act Author: Studies Confirm Coronavirus Weaponized @TheAltWorld
Law & Politics


Professor Francis Boyle, uncovers four separate studies which he
claims confirm as ‘smoking gun’ evidence the Wuhan coronavirus, now
known as COVID-19, was in fact weaponized.

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03-FEB-2020 :: There is no doubt that there is a novel sequence in 2019-nCoV; we confirmed this via sequence alignment. Here's the DOT plot: #COVID19 #coronavirus #2019nCoV
Law & Politics


Option 4. A recombined virus made in a laboratory for the purpose of
creating a vaccine.
The disease progression in of 2019-nCoV is consistent with those seen
in animals and humans vaccinated against SARS and then challenged with
re-infection. Thus, the hypothesis that 2019- nCoV is an experimental
vaccine type must be seriously considered.

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The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao #COVID19
Law & Politics


Surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were
collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing 4, 5. The tissue
samples and contaminated trashes were source of pathogens. They were
only ~280 meters from the seafood market. The WHCDC was also adjacent
to the Union Hospital (Figure 1, bottom) where the first group of
doctors were infected during this epidemic. It is plausible that the
virus leaked around and some of them contaminated the initial patients
in this epidemic, though solid proofs are needed in future study. The
second laboratory was ~12 kilometers from the seafood market and
belonged to Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
1, 9, 10. This laboratory reported that the Chinese horseshoe bats
were natural reservoirs for the severe acute respiratory syndrome
coronavirus (SARS-CoV) which caused the 2002-3 pandemic 9. The
principle investigator participated in a project which generated a
chimeric virus using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, and
reported the potential for human emergence 10. A direct speculation
was that SARS-CoV or its derivative might leak from the laboratory. In
summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV
coronavirus.

International Markets

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0850
Dollar Index 99.269
Japan Yen 110.69
Swiss Franc 0.9796
Pound 1.2934
Aussie 0.6612
India Rupee 71.862
South Korea Won 1212.21
Brazil Real 4.3888
Egypt Pound 15.5829
South Africa Rand 15.0911

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EM hasn't recorded big outflows until the last few days (lhs). Flow to non-China EM only just went negative (rhs). 2 implications: (i) little flow underlying FX moves so far; (ii) lots of flow (selling) perhaps still coming. @RobinBrooksIIF
Emerging Markets


Amid Coronavirus uncertainty, our tracker of flows to EM hasn't
recorded big outflows until the last few days (lhs). Flow to non-China
EM only just went negative (rhs). 2 implications: (i) little flow
underlying FX moves so far; (ii) lots of flow (selling) perhaps still
coming.

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Emerging Markets


China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.

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Postponement of 2020 Ibrahim Governance Weekend @Mo_IbrahimFdn
Africa


The Mo Ibrahim Foundation announces that the 2020 Ibrahim Governance
Weekend (IGW), scheduled to take place 3-5 April in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia, is postponed due to evolving public health risks related to
the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
With over 1,000 guests expected from Africa and around the world, the
IGW includes major conferences and parallel meetings, as well as a
public concert, attended by global institutions, governments, civil
society and business groups.
After due consideration of the global landscape regarding the
coronavirus outbreak and related travel concerns, and following
consultation with the government of Ethiopia, WHO officials and
high-level experts, the Board has taken the decision to postpone the
event.
The IGW is being rescheduled for the first quarter of 2021.
Our sympathies at this time are with all those affected in China and elsewhere.

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But what is most troubling of all is the situation-or curious lack thereof-in Africa @thedailybeast
Africa


But the opposite is even moreso, and the prevailing theory about
Africa is that a lack of medical facilities and testing capacity may
mean the virus is spreading silently. The WHO has been working to get
testing kits and other preparedness measures in place in Africa for
when, not if, the virus takes hold.

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This could mean super-spreaders during incubation period, undetected by temperature readings or showing no symptoms likely invaded Africa from China via Ethiopia main airport
Africa


As we detailed previously, Ethiopia's Bole International airport is
the leading African gateway to and from China. On average, 1500
passengers per day arrive from China. Ethiopia scans all passengers
from Asia for symptoms, which essentially means taking their
temperature.

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Africa


China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.

read more












ZAMBIA Unhealthy bank balance @Africa_Conf
Africa


Finance Minister Bwalya Ng'andu's January request for a funded
programme from the International Monetary Fund may be in danger from
continued borrowing beyond the Treasury's control, financial sources
in Lusaka told Africa Confidential.
IMF sources have confirmed the request. Any deal with the Fund would
require borrowing to be curbed, but the ruling Patriotic Front is
still filling its campaign coffers using new loans and inflated
contracts, we hear.

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The money went directly from China Exim Bank to CRBC accounts, denying the country any local stimulus. @MihrThakar
Africa


The contract explicitly stated that it would not be made public.
If easily verifiable items are so heavily overpriced, what of the
technical items?

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14-OCT-2019 : My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Africa


My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. The lone and level sands
stretch far away.”

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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