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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 19th of March 2020
 
Afternoon,
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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The Current Affairs show with Elphas Nkosi, 17 Mar 2020 - Coronavirus: The world economy at risk RADIO #COVID19
Africa


17 Mar 2020 - Coronavirus: The world economy at risk MARKAZ SAHABA
ONLINE RADIO  |
THE CURRENT AFFAIRS SHOW WITH ELPHAS NKOSI News Hour With Elphas Nkosi
GUEST: ALY KHAN SATCHU GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYST

Macro Thoughts

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dollar's safe haven status reasserts itself. The dollar index has had its best 5-day return since Oct. 2008 - @johnauthers
Africa


dollar's safe haven status reasserts itself. The dollar index has had
its best 5-day return  since Oct. 2008 - but note some of its worst
weeks ever came in the weeks afterwards, so there may be relief in
sight for the many who prefer a weak dollar

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Let's check-in to see how Major Currencies are holding up against the US dollar: @VPatelFX
Africa


$EUR <1% from lowest since 2017
$GBP Lowest since 1985
$AUD Lowest since 2003
$NZD Lowest since 2009
$CAD <1% from lowest since 2003
$SEK Lowest since 2002
$NOK $BRL $MXN Lowest on record

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Just an update from me, in case you are interested...@RaoulGMI
Africa


Ive just closed all short positions in equities, oil and HYG and had
closed bonds a while ago. I am now 100% focussed on the on the US
dollar, which is a wrecking ball.

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We have created the perfect storm. @RaoulGMI
Africa


An unimagined global financial, economic and potentially humanitarian
crisis that is going to take everything we've got to stop it.
Im just not sure its possible. Urgh. We have to hope for the best,
plan for several unimagined outcomes too...

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is it really social distancing if we are all surrounded by the djinn @aaolomi
Africa


The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching
fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear
clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them. DJinn have the power to
travel large distances at extreme speeds and are thought to live in
remote areas - so now You Know
In Middle Eastern and Islamic cosmology, the djinn govern the
forbidden practices of magic. @aaolomi

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A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.; Albert Camus, The Plague
Africa


“In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up
in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved
in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell
ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that
will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it
is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they
have taken no precautions.”
"For a long while God gazed down on this town wth eyes of compassion;
but He grew weary of waiting, His eternal hope was too long deferred,
& now He has turned His face away from us. & so, God's light
withdrawn, we walk in darkness, in the thick darkness of this plague."
#COVID19

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The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded. @balajis
Law & Politics


The normal defenses fail. It can't be bombed. Bank accounts can't be
frozen. Unbreakable morale. No supply chain. Lives off the land.
Infinite reinforcements. Fully decentralized.

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In Daegu, a 17-year-old showing pneumonia-like symptoms died on Wednesday, raising concerns as cases with teenagers and children were thought to be less fatal than older people. @TheKoreaHerald
Law & Politics


The KCDC has yet to confirm the case as COVID-19, as the result of a
posthumous test is still pending.
But health officials noted the deceased had mixed results -- both
positive and negative -- when tested several times while hospitalized.
Korean authorities are on alert as additional clusters of the novel
coronavirus infections emerged in Daegu, the epicenter of the local
outbreak, despite a relative slowdown in new cases nationwide.
On Wednesday, Korea reported 93 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the
nation’s total to 8,413, according to the Korea Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention.
It marks the fourth straight day that the number of new cases remained
in double digits rather than triple.
Three more people died, raising the death toll to 84, and 139 were
newly declared virus-free, putting the total number of recoveries at
1,540.
Daegu, the southeastern city accounting for 70 percent of all cases
here, reported new clusters of infections at nursing homes.
At Hansarang Nursing Hospital, 74 people -- 57 patients and 17 medical
staff -- have tested positive so far.

International Markets

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0862
Dollar Index 101.50
Japan Yen 109.02
Swiss Franc 0.9706
Pound 1/1485
Aussie 0.5653
India Rupee 75.0825
South Korea Won 1276.815
Brazil Real 5.1069
Egypt Pound 15.7479
South Africa Rand 17.4039

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07-AUG-2017 :: Any financial expert will tell you that President Trump's financial affairs are a "smoking gun."
World Currencies


Deutsche Bank loans were surely ‘’mirror’’ transactions, where
Deutsche Bank was a commission agent interposed between Trump and the
real lender.

Commodities

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A horrible day for emerging-market currencies @markets @PaulWallace123
Emerging Markets


A horrible day for emerging-market currencies. SouthAfrica's rand is
trading at an all-time low on a closing basis and the Russian rouble's
weakened 5%. Mexico's peso and Brazil's real, already at record lows,
depreciated some more. @markets

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5-FEB-2018 :: [The End of] Halcyon Days These became known as the "halcyon days," when storms do not occur.
Emerging Markets


Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus,

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successfuL

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Italian ambassador to Burkina tells me he has tested positive for #coronavirus. He has not been to Italy since November He insists he caught the virus here in #Burkinafaso @Henry_Wilkins
Africa


Italian ambassador to Burkina tells me he has tested positive for
#coronavirus. He has not been to Italy since November and the last
time he was out of the country was beginning of Jan. He insists he
caught the virus here in #Burkinafaso

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Security Alert: Reports of Anti-Foreigner Sentiment U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia
Africa


From US Embassy Addis: "Reports indicate that foreigners have been
attacked with stones, denied transportation services (taxis, Ride,
etc.), being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being
infected with COVID-19."
EVENT:  The Embassy continues to receive reports regarding a rise in
anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19
in Ethiopia.
Typical derogatory comments directed at foreigners, the terms “China”
and “Ferengi” (foreigner), have been reportedly coupled with the label
“Corona,” indicating a disparaging view on the link between the
outbreak of COVID-19 and foreigners in Ethiopia.
Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have
been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other
cities throughout the country.
Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones,
denied transportation services (taxis, Ride, etc.), being spat on,
chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19.
Please remain mindful of this issue, and please employ sound security practices.

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa


The First Issue is whether The #CoronaVirus will infect the Continent
We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ...
then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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"the number of tests we have is very, very disappointing. It's maybe 40 or 50." @jmollel
Africa


There are only 200 intensive care units in the capital, Addis Ababa

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Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa


The year began with promise for sub-Saharan Africa.
All the major institutions tracking African growth said so:
The African Development Bank pronounced in its Economic Outlook that
Africa’s economic outlook continues to brighten. Its real GDP growth,
estimated at 3.4% for 2019, is projected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2020
and to 4.1% in 2021.
The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook sub-Saharan Africa growth
is expected to strengthen to 3.5% in 2020–21 (from 3.3% in 2019).
The World Bank predicted ”Regional growth is expected to pick up to
2.9% in 2020”
Interestingly the World Bank added a caveat which was prescient:
A sharper-than-expected deceleration in major trading partners such as
China, the Euro Area, or the United States, would substantially lower
export revenues and investment.
A faster-than-expected slowdown in China would cause a sharp fall in
commodity prices and, given Sub-Saharan Africa’s heavy reliance on
extractive sectors for export and fiscal revenues, weigh heavily on
regional activity.
Those forecasts are now defunct and it’s only March.
The Coronavirus has to date barely made landfall on the African
continent with only 5 countries reporting infections but a Virus is in
its essence non-linear, exponential and multiplicative and it would be
a Shakespeare-level moment of hubris if policy makers were to pat
themselves on the back.
Diagnostic kits were only recently availed and if South Korea had
tested the same number of People as the entire African Continent, they
too would be reporting single digit cases.
We all know now ”what exponential disease propagation looks like in
the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing,
nothing, nothing … then cluster, cluster, cluster … then BOOM!” and
therefore we will know soon whether we really have dodged the
#Coronavirus Infection Bullet.
The issue at hand now is around the violence of the blowback from the
China #Coronavirus feedback loop phenomenon.
The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an an
exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved and therefore, it is a
”Black Swan”.
Fantasy predictions of a V shaped recovery in China have been dashed.
In fact China cannot just crank up the ‘Factory’ because that will
risk a second round effect of infections.
Therefore, I expect negative GDP Growth through H1 2020 in China as my
base case.
Standard Bank’s Chief Economist has calculated that a one percentage
point decrease in China’s domestic investment growth is associated
with an average 0.6 percentage point decrease in Africa’s exports.
Those countries heavily dependent on China being the main taker of
their commodities are at the bleeding edge of this now negative
feedback loop phenomenon. Commodity prices [Crude Oil, Copper, Coal]
have crashed more than 20% since the start of the year.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist or an Economist to calculate
which countries in are directly in the line of fire. Angola, Congo
Brazzavile, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, Nigeria and South Africa
spring immediately to mind.
Notwithstanding comments by the always upbeat and bright-eyed
President Adesina of the African Development Bank that Africa is not
facing a debt crisis.
He told Bloomberg, “Debt is not a problem, it’s very bad debt that’s a
problem,”.
The point is this.
SSA Countries with no exception that I can think off have gorged on
borrowing and balance sheets are maxed out.
Africa’s sovereign issuance in the Eurobond markets totaled $53bn in
2018 and 2019 and total outstanding debt topped $100bn last year.
Debt burdens have increased and affordability has weakened across most
of Sub-Saharan Africa, while a shift in debt structures has left some
countries more exposed to a financial shock, said Moodys in November
last year.
Very few of the investments made are within spitting distance of
providing an ROI [Return on Investment].
Rising debt service ratios are best exemplified by Nigeria where the
Government is spending more than half of its revenue servicing its
debt.
More than 50% of SSA GDP is produced by South Africa, Nigeria and Angola.
South Africa reported that GDP in Q4 2019 shrank by a massive 1.4%.
Annual growth at 0.2% is the lowest yearly growth since 2009 and the
tape is back at GFC times.
The rand which has been in free fall has a lot further to fall in 2020.
And this is before the viral infection.
Nigeria’s oil revenue is cratering and there is $16bn of ”hot money”
parked in short term certificates which is all headed for the Exit as
we speak. A Currency Devaluation is now predicted and predictable.
South Africa, Nigeria and Angola are poised to dive into deep recession.
East Africa which was a bright spot is facing down a locust invasion
which according to the FAO could turn 500x by June.
It is practically biblical.
“If I shut up heaven that there be no rain, or if I command the
locusts to devour the land, or if I send pestilence among my people;”
– 2 Chronicles 7:13-14
This is a perfect storm. Buckle up, and let’s stop popping the Quaaludes

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Ghana became the first sub-Saharan Africa country to cut interest rates in response to the coronavirus pandemic, reducing its benchmark to an eight-year low.
Africa


The monetary policy rate was reduced to 14.5% from 16%, the first cut
since January 2019, the Bank of Ghana said in an emailed statement on
Wednesday.
The Monetary Policy Committee was originally scheduled to announce its
decision on March 23.
Growth in gross domestic product could decline to 5% and could even
slow to 2.5% in a worst-case scenario, said the central bank.
The International Monetary Fund’s most recent growth forecast for
Ghana was 5.6%.

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President Mnangagwa tells Zanu PF supporters in Nyanga that ban on large gatherings he announced yesterday will only take effect on March 20. @zimlive
Africa


President Mnangagwa bizarrely cheered by Oppah Muchinguri as he tells
Zanu PF supporters in Nyanga that ban on large gatherings he announced
yesterday will only take effect on March 20. "For now, you're allowed
to congregate, you haven't broken my directive," he says

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Malawi's leader Peter Mutharika on Tuesday fired the country's army commander whose men have in recent months protected demonstrators protesting against fraudulent elections @Yahoo
Africa


Blantyre (Malawi) (AFP) - Malawi's leader Peter Mutharika on Tuesday
fired the country's army commander whose men have in recent months
protected demonstrators protesting against fraudulent elections that
returned the president to office.
A statement from the presidency said General Vincent Nundwe was
replaced by the former air force commander, Major General Andrew
Lapken Namathanga.
Nundwe will be assigned to other duties in the public service, the
statement said.
The move comes days after Mutharika dissolved his cabinet, his latest
political move after his May re-election was annulled over
irregularities.
In a landmark ruling last month the Constitutional Court ordered
officials to hold a fresh presidential poll within 150 days in the
poor southern African nation.
It is the first time a presidential election has been challenged on
legal grounds in Malawi since independence from Britain in 1964.
Mutharika is attempting to quash new balloting that would require him
to win more than a 50 percent majority to secure a second term.
He has refused to ratify new electoral laws and filed an appeal
against the court's decision to nullify election results that had
declared him the winner with just 35.8 percent of the vote.
A retired army general suggested that the army reshuffle was linked to
Mutharika's uncertain political future.
"He wants to put people who work for his interests and from his home
area," said the former senior official who asked not to be named.
"Discipline (in the army) will be highly compromised," the general said.
Mutharika has replaced the army chief four times since his election in 2014.
After Nundwe was appointed as army commander last June he won praise
for the army's handling of six months of protests over Mutharika
election victory.
The military stepped in as confrontations between police and
protesters turned violent.

Kenya

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@SafaricomPLC was the day's main feature with 20,856,300 shares and gained 25 cents to close at 25.35 share data
Africa


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           25.10
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,005,642,242,800
EPS:             1.58
PE:                 15.886

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Standard Chartered FY 2019 EPS +1.732% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           189.00
Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00
Market Capitalization:        64,923,497,919
EPS:             23.49
PE:               8.045

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya FY 2019 results through 31st December
2019 vs. 31st December 2018
FY Kenya government securities – available for sale 97.671849b vs.
94.749090b +3.085%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 128.690341b vs. 118.651550b +8.461%
FY Total assets 302.139056b vs. 285.404023b +5.864%
FY Customer deposits 228.433515b vs. 224.284420b +1.850%
FY Total shareholders’ equity 47.760527b vs. 46.639388b +2.404%
FY Loans and advances interest income 13.406673b vs. 13.127082b +2.130%
FY Government securities interest income 10.596127b vs. 12.459334b -14.954%
FY Total interest income 25.870924b vs. 26.870924b -3.721%
FY Customer deposits interest expense [5.155004b] vs. [6.435688b] -19.900%
FY Total interest expenses [5.799959b] vs. [7.474627b] -22.405%
FY Net interest income/ [loss] 19.472493b vs. 19.396297b +0.393%
FY Other fees and commissions 4.892262b vs. 5.077993b -3.658%
FY Foreign exchange trading income 3.174026b vs. 2.843768b +11.613%
FY Total non-interest income 9.227420b vs. 9.201223b +0.285%
FY Total operating income 28.699913b vs. 28.597520b +0.358%
FY Loan loss provision [572.592m] vs. [1.930511b] -70.340%
FY Staff costs [7.136019b] vs. [7.365038b] -3.110%
FY Total other operating expenses [16.526056b] vs. [16.750904b] -1.342%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 12.173857b vs. 11.846616b +2.762%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 8.236773b vs. 8.099193b +1.699%
Basic and diluted EPS 23.49 vs. 23.09 +1.732%
Dividend per share 20.00 vs. 19.00 +5.263%
Net NPL and advances 12.269630b vs. 13.871270b -11.546%

Conclusions

Solid franchise.
Strong pivot to Digital is keep a lid on costs.
An attractive share to buy on retracements

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COOP Bank reports FY 2019 EPS +13.761% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           12.75
Total Shares Issued:          5867179554.00
Market Capitalization:        74,806,539,314
EPS:             2.48
PE:              5.1411

Cooperative Bank of Kenya FY 2019 results through 31st December 2019
vs. 31st December 2018
FY Investment securities held to maturity – Kenya Gov’t 76.871525b vs.
49.701030b +54.668%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 266.712696b vs. 245.410302b +8.680%
FY Total Assets 457.008946b vs. 413.413215b +10.545%
FY Customer deposits 332.823917b vs. 306.117046b +8.724%
FY Total shareholders’ funds 79.335183b vs. 69.864008b +13.557%
FY Loans and advances income 31.778944b vs. 32.946490b -3.544%
FY Government securities income 11.354128b vs. 9.789407b +15.984%
FY Total interest income 43.639479b vs. 43.024863b +1.429%
FY Customer deposits expenses [10.661045b] vs. [10.890477b] -2.107%
FY Total interest expenses [12.336147b] vs. [12.240115b] +0.785%
FY Net interest income/ [loss] 31.303331b vs. 30.784748b +1.685%
FY Fees and commissions on loans and advances 3.228648b vs. 575.852m +460.673%
FY Other fees and commissions 9.588986b vs. 8.941686b +7.239%
FY FX Trading income 2.148844b vs. 2.284887b -5.954%
FY Other income 2.103429b vs. 1.007790b +108.717%
FY Total non-interest income 17.156662b vs. 12.893502b +33.064%
FY Total operating income 48.459993b vs. 43.678250b +10.948%
FY Loan loss provision [2.539071b] vs. [1.840728b] +37.938%
FY Total other operating expenses [27.794275b] vs. [25.692535b] +8.180%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 20.665718b vs.
17.985715b +14.901%
FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax 20.705753b vs. 18.157131b +14.036%
FY Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 14.311247b vs.
12.732487b +12.399%
Basic and diluted EPS 2.48 vs. 2.18 +13.761%
Dividend per share 1.00 vs. 1.00 –
Total NPL and Advances 26.514561b vs. 25.202025b +5.208%
Net NPL 15.252558b vs. 15.256765b -0.028%

Conclusions

Solid FY 2019 results.
Inexpensive share on a PE of 5.1411

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CIC Insurance reports FY 2019 EPS -33.333% Earnings
Africa


Par Value:
Closing Price:           2.28
Total Shares Issued:          2615538528.00
Market Capitalization:        5,963,427,844
EPS:             0.12
PE:               19.8333

CIC is the leading provider of micro insurance and other financial services

CIC Insurance Group PLC FY 2019 Results through 31st December 2019 vs.
31st December 2018
FY Total Assets 35.303070b vs. 33.046419b +6.829%
FY Gross written premiums 17.695928b vs. 16.627384b +6.426%
FY Reinsurance ceded [2.899813b] vs. [2.683815b] +8.048%
FY Net earned premiums 14.396887b vs. 14.261486b +0.949%
FY Fees and commission income 1.281654b vs.  903.839m +41.801%
FY Investment income 1.486740b vs. 1.517464b -2.025%
FY Total income 17.639515b vs. 17.078711b +3.284%
FY Claims and policyholders’ benefits expense [10.040469b] vs.
[9.456369b] +6.177%
FY Commissions expense [2.241097b] vs. [2.384012b] -5.995%
FY Operating and other expenses [4.952635b] vs. [4.601816b] +7.623%
FY Total expenses [17.234201b] vs. [16.442197b] +4.817%
FY PBT 385.589m vs. 645.307m -40.247%
FY Profit for the year 321.591m vs. 480.943m -33.133%
EPS 0.12 vs. 0.18 -33.333%
Dividend per share - vs. 0.13 -100.00%
Cash and cash equivalents as at 31st Dec 2019 1.947709b vs. 4.322800b -54.943%

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

• Gross written premiums increased by 7% from 16.6b in 2018 to
KShs.17.7b in 2019
• Total assets increased by 7% to Kshs.35.3 b
• Profit before tax dropped from Kshs 645m in 2018 to Kshs 386m in 2019
The Group registered a decline in PBT in 2019 due to higher
year-on-year (“YoY”) growth in claims expenses by 6% due to adverse
experience in key business lines, drop in investment due to the poor
performance of the equities market coupled with a slump in revaluation
gains on property investments.

DIVIDENDS
The directors do not recommend the payment of dividends for the year
ended 2019 (2018 Kshs 0.13 per share totalling toKshs340Mn).

FUTURE OUTLOOK
The Group’s key areas of focus shall include improved customer
experience, reliable and user-friendly systems and prudent cost
management by focusing on innovation and continuous improvement.

Conclusions

Expect an even more challenging Year in 2020

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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