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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 31st of March 2020
 
Afternoon,
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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22-MAR-2020 :: COVID-19 and a Rolling Sudden Stop #COVID19
Africa


We are moving from a World of Hyper Connectedness to a World of
Quarantine. A complete Quarantine is the only way to vaccine this
c21st World of ours
#Coronavirus "has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century
pathogen we've been worried about." - @BillGates
The Price of Crude Oil is perfectly correlated to the #COVID19 Sudden Stop

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"Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision, corrupts." - Ryszard Kapuscinski, Shah of Shahs
Africa


“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all
a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength,
fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts
obligingly up into the air and falls back to earth as a rustling
shower of money.”― Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs

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24-FEB-2020 :: The Viral Moment has Arrived #COVID19
Africa


At this point I would venture Gold is correlated to the #Coronavirus
which is set to turn parabolic and is already non linear and
exponential ~

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"In much of your talking, thinking is half murdered. For thought is a bird of space, that in a cage of words may indeed unfold its wings but cannot fly." Kahlil Gibran @brainpickings
Africa


When Gibran’s prophet-protagonist is asked to address the matter of
talking, he responds:

You talk when you cease to be at peace with your thoughts;
And when you can no longer dwell in the solitude of your heart you
live in your lips, and sound is a diversion and a pastime.
And in much of your talking, thinking is half murdered.
For thought is a bird of space, that in a cage of words may indeed
unfold its wings but cannot fly.

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"they were headed into androgenic, systemic, multiplex, seriously bad shit, like she sort of already knew, figured everybody did," The Peripheral by @GreatDismal @BaldMan
Africa


“they were headed into androgenic, systemic, multiplex, seriously bad
shit, like she sort of already knew, figured everybody did, except for
people who still said it wasn’t happening, and those people were
mostly expecting the Second Coming anyway.” The Peripheral by
@GreatDismal

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Everyone needs to stop thinking COVID19 numbers today are today’s numbers. They're not. Strictly: the present is the past. @theneurotimes
Law & Politics


Everyone needs to stop thinking COVID19 numbers today are today’s
numbers. They’re not. They reflect: a) transmission between 12-18 days
ago, b) onset and course of illness 7-14 days ago, c) hospitalization
and testing, 7-1 days ago. Strictly: the present is the past.

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US intel would have known Wuhan virus history. from start. Moreover, Fort Dietrich watching every bio threat worldwide would know @Halsrethink
Law & Politics


US intel would have known Wuhan virus history. from start. Moreover,
Fort Dietrich watching every bio threat worldwide would know, as would
its Canada partner Winnipeg National Microbiology Laboratory, which
had close research ties to Wuhan Level 4 Lab. Intel just not trusted

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Just quietly wondering what was known, and by whom, and when. @Halsrethink
Law & Politics


Am not a virology expert, and don't dabble in conspiracy theories.
Just quietly wondering what was known, and by whom, and when. And
knowing from experience such intel quite possibly never reached the
top of decision making

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With social media posts about the #coronavirus being censored in #China here's a bit of cool protest art going around. @StephenMcDonell
Law & Politics


Perhaps too the ―besieged city‖ [of Wuhan], beset as it is by crisis,
may also prove to be a Jerusalem—a place of hope and peace; an old
city proffering new hope.
you will all be no better than fields of garlic chives, giving
yourselves up to being harvested by the blade of power, time and time
again. @ChinaFile #COVID19
The People are no longer fearful Mass sentiment can be summed up in
the line [made famous in Bei Dao‟s 1976 poem]: I—DO—NOT—BELIEVE!
For this, it needed a great number of human guinea pigs.

There was one more set of doors, and beyond them lay what the Corporal
called the "Core". And it was there that I saw it — piles and piles of
dead bodies, stacked on top of one another all the way to the ceiling.
the Corporal led me to the Core.
I cannot count how many there were, but it was many, many thousands.
And in the midst of the piles of corpses was a kind of path, and I
heard a roaring sound in the distance. I simply could not believe what
lay at the end of that path in the Core.
It was an enormous furnace, with great fires roaring within.

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Current SO2 levels are extremely elevated, at 1700ug/m^3, where 80ug/m^3 is considered dangerously high. @inteldotwav
Law & Politics


―Ebola is terrible, but it‘s not like a lightning flu,‖ he said.
―This coronavirus has a lot of similarities to a very bad flu, in
terms of the death rate, so far more like the 1957 flu outbreak.
”But this is way worse than a typical seasonal flu and of course we
have no immunity.
“Will this get into Africa or not and if so, will those health systems
be overwhelmed?
“If you look at Ebola, most of the excess deaths were caused because
the health service shut down. It‟s not just the direct effect, it‟s
also the panic, the overload, and the things that effect health
workers, because you‟re already at very limited capacity.
―This disease, if it‘s in Africa it‘s more dramatic than if it‘s in
China, even though I‘m not trying to minimise what‘s going on in China
in any way.‖

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1015
Dollar Index 99.33
Japan Yen 108.31
Swiss Franc 0.9596
Pound 1.2329
Aussie 0.6190
India Rupee 75.53
South Korea Won 1219.165
Brazil Real 5.1946
Egypt Pound 15.7725
South Africa Rand 17.9772

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Emerging Markets


China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.

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EM investors very rarely sell. But the COVID-19 shock changed all that. We've recorded bigger outflows (red) than during the global financial crisis. @RobinBrooksIIF
Emerging Markets


We also estimate far bigger valuation losses on remaining holdings
(blue), given how much positions have grown in size from 2008/9

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5-FEB-2018 :: [The End of] Halcyon Days These became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur.
Emerging Markets


Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus,

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successfuL

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Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa increase by 15-fold in 15 days @ACI_Africa
Africa


Total number of COVID-19 cases reached 5,553 on 30 March, an increase
of 10% on the previous day, yet representing only 0.71% of the total
number of cases worldwide.

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#Ethiopia bank leaders express worries about two emerging issues. 1) possible defaults on overseas payments as forex receipts from exports & remittances decline sharply. 2) Drop in deposits @PreciseConsult
Africa


#Ethiopia bank leaders express worries about two emerging issues. 1)
possible defaults on overseas payments as forex receipts from exports
& remittances decline sharply. 2) Drop in deposits as people withdraw
cash in anticipation of uncertainty over #COVID19 disruptions.

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA
Africa


The First Issue is whether The #CoronaVirus will infect the Continent.
We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and
multiplicative.what exponential disease propagation looks like in the
real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ...
then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Africa


China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.

read more


South Africa Rand Slumps to Record Low After @MoodysInvSvc Cut to Junk @markets
Africa


South Africa’s rand weakened to a record low, dollar bonds plunged and
banking stocks dropped after the country lost its last
investment-grade credit rating.
Investors anticipate it may slide even deeper into junk as the spread
of the coronavirus hammers the economy.
The currency dropped as much as 2.5% to 18.09 per dollar, breaching 18
for the first time.
It traded 1.1% down at 17.82 by 12:46 p.m. in Johannesburg, still the
worst performance among major emerging-market currencies after the
Mexican peso.
Yields on 10-year dollar-denominated bonds climbed 69 basis points to
8.13%, a record, and widening the premium over U.S. Treasuries to 735
points.
Yields on 10-year government bonds opened 60 basis points higher, but
erased the increase as additional liquidity measures announced by the
country’s central bank over the weekend came into play.
An index of South African bank stocks slid as much as 6.1%, extending
Friday’s 12% slump.
The equity market’s main gauge gained 0.8%, with some exporters and
companies with international income benefiting from the currency’s
depreciation.
Moody’s Investors Service on Friday cut its assessment of South Africa
to sub-investment grade, saying unreliable electricity supply,
persistently weak business confidence and investment, and labor market
rigidities continue to constrain the economy.
Lowering South Africa’s rating to Ba1, one level below investment
grade, Moody’s kept a negative outlook on the government’s debt, which
it said “reflects downside risks to economic growth and fiscal
metrics.”
That could lead to a rise in the debt burden, increasing borrowing
costs and weakening South Africa’s access to funding, it said.
“Perhaps the downgrade is a catalyst for much-needed structural
reform,” said Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an analyst at Rand Merchant Bank
in Johannesburg, in a note to clients.
“The end state remains unclear, especially as South Africa sinks
further into the abyss of recession.”
Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said on Sunday evening that he may
approach the International Monetary Fund and World Bank for assistance
in fighting the coronavirus pandemic.
The downgrade will cause Africa’s most industrialized economy to fall
out of the FTSE World Government Bond Indexes, which are tracked by
around $3 trillion of funds.
South Africa has a 0.45% weighting in the main index. The index will
be reweighted at the end of April.
Analysts are divided over how many outflows from passive funds the
index exclusion will trigger.
Barclays Plc analysts said Monday there could be $6 billion of forced
selling, with foreign holdings of South African local-currency
government debt falling to 30-32% of the total from 37%.
Morgan Stanley forecasts $2-$4 billion of outflows, while Standard
Chartered Plc says it could be anything from $4 billion to $10
billion.
Foreign investors have already sold a net 46.8 billion rand ($2.7
billion) of government securities this year.
The cost of insuring South Africa’s dollar debt against non-payment
rose to the highest since 2009, with five-year credit default swaps
climbing 38 basis points to 438.

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Growth in gross domestic product could slow to 1.5% and may "further worsen in the event of full lockdown," Ofori-Atta told lawmakers Monday in the capital, Accra
Africa


Growth in gross domestic product could slow to 1.5% with a partial
lockdown of the economy and may “further worsen in the event of full
lockdown,” Ofori-Atta told lawmakers Monday in the capital, Accra,
according to a copy of his speech.
The estimate compares with the government’s initial projection of 6.8%
and will be slowest since the economy contracted in 1983, when the
West African nation was under military rule, data from the
International Monetary Fund show.
The government expects a 5.7-billion cedi ($989 million) shortfall in
oil receipts and a further gap of 2.3 billion cedis from lower tax
revenues and duties, said Ofori-Atta.
This will widen the targeted budget deficit to 6.6% of GDP from an
initial forecast of 4.7%, even after adopting “extraordinary measures”
to close the gap, he said.
The measures include a deferral of interest payments on non-marketable
bonds and securing an emergency IMF facility of 3.1 billion cedis, he
said.
The government will also propose a change in legislation to allow
borrowing of as much as 10% of the previous year’s tax revenue from
the central bank “in the event of tight financing conditions.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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