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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 13th of July 2020
 








13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus
World Of Finance



We are here

Total Confirmed 12,740,971

My Model is showing 300,000,000 cases by December


summary of #COVID__19 @SandroDemaio


• 1,424,892 cases were confirmed in the last week • 229,759 just in the last 24 hours @MaxCRoser


The #COVID Daily Case Count is above 200,000


cases doubled worldwide in 6 weeks

Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the Boiling Point

Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019


We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us.

a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.



This is the Comet NEOWISE BBC


I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.

Countries that I'm worried about. @MaxCRoser


Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” Angela Merkel

The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.

political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis


Madagascar 435 nouveaux cas confirmés #covid19mg @NCoVAfrica


Africa has a Problem

COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19

and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said

’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone. “Our pandemic is getting full speed.”




Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days 300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days 400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa


A Lot of People whom I follow and who should know better by now keep repeating that the CFR rate is very low. Understand this

A reminder that # deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later @nntaleb 





Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear

Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.

The WHO are going to China for a break.

This is a time for self-reflection, for all of us involved in the #COVID19 response to look in the mirror; to look at the world we live in and to find ways to strengthen our collaboration as we work together to save lives and bring this pandemic under control.



.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros 


“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.



“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”

Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19 


I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.




There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.

According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”



America and China Are Entering the Dark Forest @bopinion @nfergus 


"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.”

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism.

The Financial Markets

The Chart of Truth - 10 year yields still heading for sub-zero. @RaoulGMI




I expect the US Curve out to 10 Years to be negative by Year End

Short sterling: first ever 100.00 print in futures -- this means market is pricing for a 0% level in 3-month GBP Libor by March 2022 @StephenSpratt


The Nasdaq closed at All time Highs and BIG TECH is leading the Charge


$TSLA +$600 in 9 days @NorthmanTrader


 27-JAN-2020 : "But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola" @Tesla @elonmusk


''They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

The Equity Markets are being priced on the basis of Liquidity and are in nose-bleed Territory.

22-MAR-2020 :: I believe Gold will soon turn viral to the Upside I am looking for $2,000.00+




Cumulative #gold inflows at all-time high (BofA) @chigrl





22-JUN-2020 :: Gold is a No Brainer targets $2,000.00


#Gold and #cash, not #equities or #bonds have seen the biggest inflows this year! @jsblokland




22-JUN-2020 :: The FED WILL KEEP ON PRINTING THEY HAVE ONLY JUST GOTTEN STARTED




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The universe is a dark forest. This is intergalactic Darwinism.@bopinion @nfergus
Misc.

Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost … trying to tread without sound … The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people … any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out. This is intergalactic Darwinism.

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The plague writers who predicted today @BBC
Market Crashes / Panic


By July, the City of London enforces new rules  –  rules now becoming routine in our 2020 shutdown, such as “that all public feasting, and particularly by the companies of this city, and dinners at taverns, ale-houses, and other places of common entertainment, be forborne till further order and allowance…”

Nothing, Defoe writes, “was more fatal to the inhabitants of this city than the supine negligence of the people themselves, who, during the long notice or warning they had of the visitation, made no provision for it by laying in store of provisions, or of other necessaries, by which they might have lived retired and within their own houses, as I have observed others did, and who were in a great measure preserved by that caution…”

By August, Defoe writes, the plague is “very violent and terrible”; by early September it reaches its worst, with “whole families, and indeed whole streets of families… swept away together.” 

By December, “the contagion was exhausted, and also the winter weather came on apace, and the air was clear and cold, with sharp frosts… most of those that had fallen sick recovered, and the health of the city began to return.” 

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Coronavirus: World Health Organisation @WHO inquiry will not visit Wuhan laboratory #COVID19 @thesundaytimes
Misc.


“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”

“Was any attempt made to clone RaTG13 virus — were any gene sequences from presumed RaTG13 virus ever synthesized? If so, where and when?” Petrovsky asked. “What was done with these cloned sequences?”

Peter Daszak, a British-born US-based zoologist, who has worked for 15 years with a team headed by Shi, confirmed to Insight that this was the same virus found in the mine, even though its name had been changed from RaBtCoV/4991.

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A greyscale version of the global population density spike map I made back in the olden days - @undertheraedar
Misc.

I think I prefer this one, plus it's maybe even easier to pick out Honolulu, Reykjavík and Auckland - plus the relative isolation of Perth (Aus) is quite striking here

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“Covid-19 is clearly the job-killer of the century,” @FijiPM Frank Bainimarama said. @guardian
Misc.


“You can’t suddenly work from home when you earn your paycheque as a scuba instructor, or in a garment factory dependent on regional supply chains, or as a handicraft maker who usually sells to tourists.

“These are the faces behind the dismal figures for employment, the high human cost of this pandemic, which mounts by the day.”

Fiji’s attorney-general, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, warned of a “coronavirus cyclone … a perfect storm of climate and Covid-19” that could take Pacific states decades to recover from.

“Today, if you were to ask any small island/developing state’s finance or economy minister, they’ll tell you that – when compounded by the global pandemic – our usual climate-induced anxiety has escalated into a sense of impending dread. We’re all bracing for a ‘coronavirus cyclone’ of the century,” he wrote on Twitter.

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1317

Dollar Index 96.458

Japan Yen 106.977

Swiss Franc 0.9406

Pound 1.2626

Aussie 0.6971

India Rupee 75.205

South Korea Won 1201.905

Brazil Real 5.3243

Egypt Pound 15.9336

South Africa Rand 16.7168

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23-SEP-2019 :: I, therefore, am putting out a ‘’conviction’’ Buy on Netflix at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX
World Of Finance

“This world of online video is the future, and for an artist you want to be first in, to be a pioneer. With YouTube, I will have a very small crew, and we are trying to keep focused on a single voice. There aren’t any rules. There’s just the artist, the content, and the audience.”

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27-JAN-2020 : "But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola" @Tesla @elonmusk
U.S. Economy


''They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’



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@Huawei urges Britain: Don’t drop us till after next election @thetimes
World Of Finance
“without Huawei there will be blackouts”.

“And if you know anything about Chinese military strategy, they talk about the fusion of civil and military capabilities. There is a close linkage undoubtedly between the Chinese military capability and Huawei.”
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Africa to Become Testing Ground for “Trust Stamp” Vaccine Record and Payment System @MintPressNews by Raul Diego
Africa


A new biometric identity platform partnered with the Gates-funded GAVI vaccine alliance and Mastercard will launch in West Africa and combine COVID-19 vaccinations, cashless payments, and potential law enforcement applications.


A biometric digital identity platform that “evolves just as you evolve” is set to be introduced in “low-income, remote communities” in West Africa thanks to a public-private partnership between the Bill Gates-backed GAVI vaccine alliance, Mastercard and the AI-powered “identity authentication” company, Trust Stamp.

The program, which was first launched in late 2018, will see Trust Stamp’s digital identity platform integrated into the GAVI-Mastercard “Wellness Pass,” a digital vaccination record and identity system that is also linked to Mastercard’s click-to-play system that powered by its AI and machine learning technology called NuData. 

Mastercard, in addition to professing its commitment to promoting “centralized record keeping of childhood immunization” also describes itself as a leader toward a “World Beyond Cash,” and its partnership with GAVI marks a novel approach towards linking a biometric digital identity system, vaccination records, and a payment system into a single cohesive platform. 

The effort, since its launch nearly two years ago, has been funded via $3.8 million in GAVI donor funds in addition to a matched donation of the same amount by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.


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Abiy's invocation of foreign plotters – no one not seized by populist fury really believes Egypt could have been involved – shows how serious his domestic political position is. @Africa_Conf
Law & Politics


Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is at the centre of a political maelstrom which could destroy the fragile federation.

Addis's relations with Cairo were already tense when Oromo activist and singer Hachalu Hundessa was murdered on 29 June and Abiy raised the spectre of possible Egyptian involvement. 

He said on 3 July, 'Those external and internal forces who were not successful with the GERD issue have tried their utmost efforts to create chaos at this time,' in an obvious allusion to Egypt. 

Abiy also promised to find and punish 'those that are pulling the strings'.

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@MoodysInvSvc Ethiopia political tensions are credit negative @ReutersAfrica
World Of Finance


Moody’s said on Friday that the latest bout of political unrest in Ethiopia following the murder of a popular singer threatened to further slow already stalling economic growth and was “credit negative”.

More than 166 people were killed during anti-government protests in Ethiopia in early July after popular Oromo musician Haacaaluu Hundeessaa was shot dead by unknown gunmen, with his death tapping into grievances fuelled by decades of government repression.

“We expect the economy to grow by only 2% in 2020 compared with 9% in 2019,” Moody’s Kelvin Dalrymple wrote in a note to clients. 

“The unrest also has the potential to derail Ethiopia’s democratic transition, especially in the run up to the now-delayed first multiparty democratic elections.”

Moody’s downgraded Ethiopia’s long-term issuer rating to B2 from B1 in May. 

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Zimbabwe’s biggest financial services group,@OldMutualZW has had to issue a statement @Wamagaisa
World Of Finance


Zimbabwe’s biggest financial services group,@OldMutualZW has had to issue a statement over its status following threats from ZANU PF. 

Interestingly, it is also “seeking clarity on the matter”. The Mnangagwa regime’s capacity for self-immolation is simply astounding.

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I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money;
World Of Finance




“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”


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In addition, that exchange rate actually helps keep some money in Zimbabwe. @RencapMan
Africa

 


Investors in Zimbabwe need to provide some estimate for the exchange rate in their accounts, or when talking to their own investors.  If you remove this rate, you make it harder to invest


 

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The presidency also denied that @SE_Rajoelina is unwell with the virus, insisting he is in the country and in good health. @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Law & Politics


Madagascar is the home of the “miracle” tonic hailed by President Andry Rajoelina as a preventative and cure for Covid-19. 

And yet this week the government bashfully placed the Analamanga region – including the capital Antananarivo – back in lockdown amid a surge in cases. 

The presidency also denied that Rajoelina is unwell with the virus, insisting he is in the country and in good health.

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“The composition of the cabinet reflects backroom deals founded on pay for play, corruption and nepotism,” he said. @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Law & Politics


“The backlash represents a crisis of expectations ... people are seeing configurations similar to those seen in the previous regime and so do not think that the cabinet as composed represents the change desired,” said Henry Chingaipe, a governance expert.

On Friday, the president gave a speech to respond to the concerns, saying that all appointments were made on merit alone.

Speaking directly to his new cabinet ministers, Chakwera said: “I want you to hear me and to hear me clearly... should you prove the sceptics right by being lazy, abusive, wasteful, arrogant, extravagant, divisive and corrupt, I will not hesitate to have you replaced.”

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When the president met the Imam Mali’s future hangs in the balance. Mucahid Durmaz @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Law & Politics



Last Saturday, arguably the two most powerful men in Mali greeted each other in a reception room somewhere in Bamako. The room was lined with leather sofas; as they spoke, the national flag hung on a pole behind them.

Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta is the president of Mali. His guest that day was Mahmoud Dicko: the influential imam who represents the greatest threat to Keïta’s presidency.

After their meeting, as he left, Dicko addressed the president’s cameraman. 

He sounded optimistic. “We talked about everything that concerns this crisis and the country in general. I think that with the will of everyone and of all the parties concerned, we will, inshallah, find the solution.”

President Keïta – or IBK, as he is commonly known – faces no shortage of crises, or challenges to his authority.

There are the Islamist militants in the north, contained only by the presence of a massive international peacekeeping force. Their reach extends to central Mali, exacerbating intercommunal tensions that have already been sharpened by the impact of climate change on access to land and water. 

In the south, where more than 90% of the country lives, endemic poverty and food insecurity has fuelled widespread anger towards the government, with the Covid-19 pandemic worsening the situation.

Multiple corruption scandals have not helped any of these tensions, or instilled confidence in IBK’s government, which has been in power since 2013.



Against this backdrop, Dicko has been able to channel public frustration towards the state with an approach that resonates widely: he advocates for moral values and good governance; calls for unity and divine assistance; and encourages reconciliation between ethnic and religious groups.

Nor is he afraid to criticise the president. 

“The head of state no longer has the physical and mental skills to run the country. Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta must leave,” Dicko said last month, according to Le Monde Afrique


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Côte d’Ivoire’s president chose a successor – who just died Will Alassane Ouattara now risk running for a third term? Everything is possible, says his party @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Law & Politics


The death of Côte d’Ivoire’s Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly has left the ruling party without a presidential candidate – less than four months before elections. 

Speculation is rife that President Alassane Ouattara may end up seeking the third term he had earlier said he would not pursue.

“The death of Gon Coulibaly forces the RHDP [The Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace] to review its entire strategy built around Gon Coulibaly. The party must make tough choices and President Ouattara will return to the heart of the political game for this electoral battle,” said Ousmane Zina, a political analyst based at Alassane Ouattara University in Bouaké, the country’s second-biggest city.



It took 123 days to go from the first case of #coronavirus to 250,000 confirmed cases across the continent of Africa.  From 250,000 to 500,000? Only 21 days. @Covid_Africa

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Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa
Africa


From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 

100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 

200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days

300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days

400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent
Africa


The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa


We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa


Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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@KeEquityBank Group eyes Sh50bn long-term debt in three years @BD_Africa
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Group is eyeing up to Sh50 billion from international financiers in the next three years as it seeks to boost its liquidity and capital positions.

Group CEO James Mwangi told investors in a recent virtual annual general meeting that the board wants to reinforce the lender’s liquidity and capital positions through a mix of medium-term and long-term debts.

This will take the group’s borrowed funds beyond the Sh56.7 billion it has in its books at the end of December 2019. 

Borrowing stood at Sh45.1 billion in the preceding financial year.

“We anticipate we shall be able to get up to Sh50billion of liquidity through debts as it was demonstrated by World Bank releasing Sh5 billion to help us support SMEs,” said Mr Mwangi.

Equity’s Sh22.89 billion loan or about 40 per cent of its current borrowings will mature by March 2023, the information in its latest annual report shows.

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@KeEquityBank share price data
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Price: 31.85 Market Capitalization:120,191,542,444 EPS: 5.93 PE: 5.371

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@NationMediaGrp share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Price: 13.55 Market Capitalization: 2,554,747,975 EPS:4.5 PE: 3.011

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@SafaricomPLC share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Price:   27.50 Market Capitalization: 1,101,799,270,000 EPS:1.84 PE: 14.946

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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