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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 15th of July 2020
 























A Reconstructed Historical Aetiology of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud Immunor & St Georges University of London
Misc.


In short, SARS-CoV-2 is possessed of dual action capability. 

The spike has six inserts which are unique fingerprints with five salient features indicative of purposive manipulation.

That SARS-CoV-2 has charged inserts is not in dispute (Zhou et al., 2020) 

What we have shown that is new is that the SARS-CoV-2 Spike carries significant additional charge (isoelectric point (pI) pI=8.2) compared to human SARS-CoV Spike,( pI = 5.67) and the implications thereof. 
Wan et al say, correctly in our view, that computational structural modelling of complex virus-receptor interactions can be used for structural predictions and that such models can potentially be used for Gain-Of-Function modelling. 

applying Occam's Razor to hone the most parsimonious hypothesis, make natural evolution a less likely explanation than purposive manipulation, specifically for Gain of Function.

This means that with nearly 80% of the spike protein has a built-in stealth property by having high human similarity. Therefore, it is remarkably well-adapted virus for human co-existence


The Spike displays new amino acid inserts with condensed cumulative charge, all of which are surface exposed (please refer to the reproduced figure from the vaccine paper, above). 

This is a most significant finding as we mentioned in opening. 

Being physically located on the surface of the Spike protein greatly increases the infectivity and pathogenicity of the virus, enabling these inserts to participate in binding to co- receptors/negatively charged attachment receptors or even, as we have discovered, to the negatively charged phospholipid heads on the cell membrane. 

Such a result is typically the objective of gain of function experiments to create chimeric viruses of high potency. Therefore this is a strong indicator of manipulation.

Clinically it is widely observed that the Covid-19 virus compromises the functions of olfaction and bitter/sweet receptors, erythrocytes, t-cells, neurons and various tissues such as intestine epithelia. These different targets do not engage and use ACE2 receptor binding. 

The concentration of high positive charge in and around the top of the Spike protein and the potential to use opposite charged attachment-/co-receptors can facilitate binding and infection in the general mode of action for infectivity that we published in detail in QRBD. 

In 2018 Zhou P et.al. 2018 found that a new Corona virus which they named SADS (Swine Acute Diarrhoea Syndrome) could infect the intestine and kill piglets without use of ACE2, aminopeptidase N (APN) or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) receptors.[9] 

We have done a blast analysis of the SADS Spike S1 protein and could find no trace of ACE2 RBM. The significance of this will become clear in the next point and the next section.


This new Cys-Cys property inserted into the SARS-CoV-2 Spike does not exist in SARS-CoV and hence could not provide such charge enhancement onto the RBD and co-receptor binding by natural evolution.




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I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.

There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.

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@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
China


“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”

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Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19
China


I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.


There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.

According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”


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Long term Global #COVID19 trends continue exponential growth despite slowing past few days. @jmlukens
Misc.

#USA, #India, #SouthAfrica, and many other countries with more than 50k total cases have already high or accelerating growth rates.

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13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus
Misc.



We are here

Total Confirmed 12,740,971

My Model is showing 300,000,000 cases by December


summary of #COVID__19 @SandroDemaio


• 1,424,892 cases were confirmed in the last week • 229,759 just in the last 24 hours @MaxCRoser


The #COVID Daily Case Count is above 200,000


cases doubled worldwide in 6 weeks

Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the Boiling Point

Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019


We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us.

a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.



This is the Comet NEOWISE BBC


I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.

Countries that I'm worried about. @MaxCRoser


Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” Angela Merkel

The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.

political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis


Madagascar 435 nouveaux cas confirmés #covid19mg @NCoVAfrica

A Lot of People whom I follow and who should know better by now keep repeating that the CFR rate is very low. Understand this



A reminder that # deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later @nntaleb 




Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear

Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.


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Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the Boiling Point
World Of Finance

Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019

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I updated my estimate of the Gamma distribution of onset-to-death for COVID-19. Mean 18.1 days Shape parameter 1.63 @zorinaq
Misc.


This estimate is based on the largest sample size (N=1091). Published research uses N<25 (eg. Verity)

Mean 18.1 days

Shape parameter 1.63

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Assistant Secretary David R. Stilwell: -“these are gangster tactics.” #SCSConference @AsiaMTI
Law & Politics

Assistant Secretary David R. Stilwell: China seeks to dominate SCS energy resources, aggressively deploying military forces, maritime militia, state owned oil companies in order to force other claimants into joint deals with Beijing--“these are gangster tactics.” #SCSConference

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America and China Are Entering the Dark Forest @bopinion @nfergus
Law & Politics
"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.”

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism.
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Global stocks gain on Vaccine hopes Beijing vowed retaliatory sanction against US. Bonds steady w/US 10y 0.62%. Euro rose to $1.14, a 4th high, Gold 1808, Bitcoin 9.2k. @Schuldensuehner
World Of Finance

Global stocks gain on Vaccine hopes but rising China-US tensions dampens mood. China equities lower as Beijing vowed retaliatory sanction against US. Bonds steady w/US 10y 0.62%. Euro rose to $1.14, a 4th high, on prospect of stimulus ahead of EU summit. Gold 1808, Bitcoin 9.2k.

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The Financial Markets Year of the Virus
World Of Finance

I expect the US Curve out to 10 Years to be negative by Year End

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1430

Dollar Index 96.092

Japan Yen 107.02

Swiss Franc 0.9384

Pound 1.2601

Aussie 0.6999

India Rupee 75.3515

South Korea Won 1201.64

Brazil Real 5.3687

Egypt Pound 15.9574

South Africa Rand 16.6466

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‘My son died the worst kind of death’: Horrific details of violent unrest in Ethiopia @mailandguardian @ZekuZelalem
Law & Politics

According to official statistics, at least 239 people were killed during a week of violent unrest in Ethiopia sparked by the assassination of a celebrated singer, Hachalu Hundessa, on June 29. 

“They were merciless: they killed my son in the most disgusting way possible,” said Dereje Feleke, a resident of Dera, a small town of 17 000 inhabitants in Oromia Region, southwest of Addis Ababa. “What did we do to deserve this?”

According to Dereje, on the night of June 28, hundreds of young Oromo men armed with clubs and machetes targeted ethnic minorities in Dera. 

They roamed from neighbourhood to neighbourhood, stopping at the homes of people like Dereje, who is of ethnic Amhara ancestry.

The assailants targeted Dereje’s son Mersha, 28. He was dragged outside, stabbed multiple times and finally beheaded by members of the jeering mob. Dereje managed to escape with the help of neighbours, but witnessed his son’s killing. 

Mersha’s body was left in the street and the house was burnt down. The engineer and Arba Minch University graduate had recently applied for a job with Ethiopian Airlines.

Seven people were killed in Dera that night.

“My son died the worst kind of death — even criminals don’t deserve this sort of cruelty,” Dereje said. “It troubles me every day.”

“My uncle was cut to pieces on the street. His son is in a coma: they hit him in the head with a blade.”

She said: “Dera is where I was born and raised. Oromia is home: I was raised here; I speak the language too. I have represented Oromia in school sporting competitions at national level. Where do they expect someone like me to go?”

Another man, also sheltering in the church, said: “The killers moved from home to home. They knew their targets and they were quick and methodical with the way they poured gasoline over properties. Nobody in town recognised any of them. They aren’t from the area, but someone from here must have guided them.”

Residents of Dera who spoke to the M&G claimed that the regional Oromia Special Police Force did not intervene to stop the violence. 

According to another survivor, at least 150 members of the force were housed at Dera’s stadium, minutes away, as the carnage unfolded.

“We kept calling them and begging them to help,” he said. “They told us that without orders, they couldn’t get involved. They saw the fires and the fleeing people and stayed put.”



In Addis Ababa — which is entirely surrounded by the Oromia region — violence targeted ethnic Oromos, with scores displaced from their homes. 

Footage emerged on social media showing what appeared to be clashes between police and large groups of young men in the capital, some of whom hurled rocks or brandished clubs or sticks.



In response to the unrest, the Ethiopian government has arrested more than 3 500 people, including Jawar Mohammed, a prominent Oromo opposition leader; and Eskinder Nega, a journalist and activist who has previously compared the organised groupings of Oromo youth — known as the Queero — to the Interahamwe, the youth militia that participated in the Rwandan genocide.

It has also accused three men of planning and executing Hachalu’s murder, and has arrested two of them. 

On Friday, Ethiopia’s attorney general, Adanech Abiebie, announced: “The man who pulled the trigger is named Tilahun Yami; he has admitted to doing so while in our custody. Abdi Alemayehu is the name of his accomplice.” 


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South Africa’s economy will contract by more than initially projected, likely shrinking 6.9% in 2020 compared to an earlier forecast of a 4.5% contraction S&P Global Ratings said @ReutersAfrica
World Of Finance


“The pandemic situation in the country has worsened since our previous macroeconomic update, leading to a further hit to confidence, which was already low before the pandemic, amid lack of growth and concerns about the fiscal trajectory,” the firm said.

S&P along with the other two main ratings firms, Moody’s and Fitch, already rate the country’s debt at below investment status, or junk. 

S&P cut its rating one notch to the third tier of non-investment grade, BB-, in April, with a stable outlook.

S&P’s growth forecast is however more optimistic than National Treasury’s prediction of a 7.2% contraction this year. 

Treasury predicts debt to gross domestic product will breach 80% as government borrows more to fund its response to the pandemic.

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Africa’s Varied COVID Landscapes @AfricaACSS
Africa


There is not a single African COVID-19 trajectory, but rather multiple, distinct risk profiles. Recognizing this can facilitate a better understanding of and response to the pandemic threat in Africa.

The number of reported COVID-19 cases in Africa has been steadily increasing since the first confirmed episode in Egypt on February 15, 2020

Since May 1, the number of reported cases has been doubling every 3 weeks. 
In the earliest phase of the pandemic (through May 1), reported cases were most strongly correlated with three primary factors—international exposure, size of urban population, and strength of health sector—underscoring the influence of external contact and ability to test for the virus.


Since that time, and once COVID-19 had emerged in all 54 African countries, the influence of international exposure has slowly diminished, and transmissions have become more dependent on internal risk factors. 

Presently, the size of urban population, relative age of total population, and level of press freedom have emerged alongside  international exposure as the risk factors most closely correlating with reported cases across the continent

As the scatterplots show, South Africa stands out in the number of reported cases with 43 percent of the continental total

Vitally, however, the Africa-wide correlations of key risk factors remain robust even when South Africa is excluded.

The takeaway is that as in-country transmissions grow, each country’s unique risk profile will become increasingly relevant in shaping the course of the pandemic. 


Gateway countries have among the highest levels of international trade, travel, tourism, and port traffic on the continent

Not coincidentally, this group is distinctive in that it accounts for 64 percent of all reported COVID-19 cases and 69 percent of reported deaths on the continent, even though it represents just 18 percent of the total population. 

This category includes some of Africa’s largest countries and economies. In other words, this group was exposed early and widely to the pandemic and has been fighting to bring the transmission under control from the outset. 

This group also has a relatively large segment of their populations in urban areas, including the megacities of Cairo and Johannesburg-Pretoria. 

The Gateway category is similarly typified by some of the strongest health systems on the continent. Therefore, these countries have, by and large, been proactive in conducting tests and reporting cases throughout the crisis. 

To this point, Gateway countries represent approximately 53 percent of all tests conducted on the continent.

Less well recognized, this group also has a median population age that is nearly a decade older than the African norm—28.5 vs. 20—contributing to the vulnerability of these populations once exposed to the virus.


The Complex Microcosms category represents countries with large urban populations, widely varying social and geographic landscapes, and complex security challenges—reflections of the great diversity seen across Africa. 

The average population size in the Complex Microcosms category (87 million) is larger than any of the other categories, and these countries, on average, occupy territories of 1.1 million square kilometers. 

They also have urban populations that are in the top quintile across Africa. 

Many of their inhabitants live in densely populated informal settlements, making them particularly susceptible to the rapid transmission of the novel coronavirus

As many of these individuals work in service roles such as drivers and domestic staff, they are in daily contact with other social networks, highlighting their vulnerability for exposure and transmission. 

Yet, reported cases of COVID-19 for this profile represent only 13 percent of Africa’s total, even though the category comprises 35 percent of the total population.

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Over 609,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases on the African continent - @WHOAFRO
Africa

Over 609,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases on the African continent - with more than 305,000 recoveries & 13,000 deaths.

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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19
Africa


Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19 and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said 

’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone. 

“Our pandemic is getting full speed.”

Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa 

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days 300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days 400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa

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South Africa #COVID19 UPDATE 14 July Daily doubling rate = 19.4 days Daily positivity rate = 27.5% @rid1tweets
Africa


• 174 more deaths today

• 10,496 new cases. Daily doubling rate = 19.4 days

• 38,114 tests conducted. Daily positivity rate = 27.5%

• 8,038 more recoveries

• Active cases = 147,667

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Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa
Africa


From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 

100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 

200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days

300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days

400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent
Africa
The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then BOOM
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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa
Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?
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TPS @serenahotels share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Price: 12.60 Market Capitalization:2,295,393,761 EPS:0.69 PE:18.261

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Monday, June 11, 2012 The Serena @SerenaHotels
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. 

I was then a teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at table tennis, in a bikini. 

That table tennis Table is still there. The Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds me of happy joyful carefree halcyon days of youth.

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The Polana is a Jewel in the Serena’s Crown. As Jorge Luis Borges said, “the mind was dreaming. The world was its dream.”
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Lourenço Marques founded a settlement here in 1544 and when Mozambique gained independence from Portugal in 1975, the city was renamed in honour of Maputa, a legendary chief.
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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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